-UREA PRICES NEED INDIA TO COME INTO THE MARKET WITH A TENDER TO SALVAGE FURTHER DECLINES
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE AMID LACKLUSTER DEMAND WITH MAP PRICES FALLING FASTER THAN DAP PRICES
-POTASH MARKET HAS A BEARISH UNDERTONE
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE INCREASING EAST AND WEST OF THE SUEZ DUE TO MAJOR OUTAGE FROM MA'ADEN AMMONIA PRODUCTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A FEW MONTHS
UREA
International urea activity is at a low ebb. The market is expecting India government buying agent RCF to soon announce a 2 million MT import tender with shipment from the end of October to early December. Since April 2025 India has purchased 6.6 million MT of urea vs 5.6 million MT between April 2024 to March 2025. So much for India becoming self-sufficient in meeting urea demand by India production.
Coupled with the anticipated emergence of Brazil buying large quantities of urea for the upcoming season, market activity could increase, and we may see prices rebound from the current lull.
The Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) is understood to still be evaluating offers following the 16 September purchasing tender through which just under 450,000t of granular urea were sought. (EABC) tendered for nine lots for shipment from 6 October through 10 February to Djibouti. As before, strong interest was seen from suppliers in the Middle East, Egypt, Russia and China. Offers for nearby shipment were noted down to $419-429pt fob Middle East/Egypt.
Thailand Imports of urea for January-August were 2.17m. tonnes, down slightly from the 2.14m. tonnes imported in the same period in 2024. Of this, 979,000t came from Saudi Arabia, with 334,000t noted against Oman and 312,000t from Malaysia. In August, 328,000t were received, an increase on the 278,000t imported in August 2024, which comprised 133,000t from Saudi Arabia, 86,000t from Oman and 38,000t from Qatar. As reported previously, high inventories and poor rice values have since stemmed import demand of late.
On the supply side Dangote is reported to have sold two 30 KT granular urea cargoes just above 400 PMT FOB. Another deal reported this week is an apparent 30 KT granular urea sale by a SE Asia producer at USD 395 PMT FOB destined for an earlier sale in Nepal. This sale is markedly lower than the last done business by Pupuk Indonesia at USD 412.50 PMT FOB where reportedly three 45,000 MT vessels were sold. NOLA prices are now at around the USD 411-418 PMT equivalent with little to no activity and with the river soon closing for the winter.
Egypt is also struggling with allocation for exports and with gas prices expected to increase by USD 1 MMBTU to USD 5.50 MMBTU. January to June exports were 1.6 million MT vs 1.92 million MT year on year. Turkey, Italy and Spain were the major receivers.
China’s position is unclear on exports with some reporting that unused quota could be as high as 500,000 MT but possibly more likely around the 250,000-300,000 MT level. What appears to be clear is that CIQ applications and shipments must be done by the end of the year. However, CIQ applications will need to be done well before the end of the year to effectuate shipments in an orderly fashion. Current FOB price for granular urea is assessed at USD 400-410 PMT whilst prilled urea is a tad lower at USD 390-400 PMT.
In summary, with major markets like the US and Europe being inactive and the major import season in both Australia and Thailand coming to an end, the urea market needs to be invigorated by India and Brazil, otherwise we could see further deterioration in urea values.
PHOSPHATES
Spot prices for phosphate fertilizers across the globe continued to decline this week, with larger declines on MAP prices resulting from weaker demand relative to DAP, which has better support, though its outlook is still bearish. Spot prices for MAP sales to Brazil were assessed down at $710-720/t CFR, though buyers showed no interest at these levels and there were rumours of much lower offers. The assessment has been declining from a peak of $760/t CFR during the first three weeks of July, which represented the highest level since September 2022. The price had increased from $640/t CFR in mid-March this year. New sales have been lacking in recent weeks. Buyers have little interest at current CFR prices as domestic suppliers are now selling MAP around $700/t CFR equivalent or lower, while there has also been ample supply of other P2O5 sources such as MAP 11-44, NP 8- 40, and SSP at more affordable levels, leaving overall P2O5 stocks up despite a drop in MAP imports. The key India DAP spot benchmark dipped further this week to $795/t CFR flat from $799- 803/t, with widespread expectations of lower prices on upcoming business. The assessment had been stable at $810/t CFR flat for three weeks before starting to decline four weeks ago. It is still up from $632-634/t CFR at the end of February and $690-700/t CFR at the start of May. The slower demand has led to indications of increased price flexibility from Chinese exporters, especially as the latest Ethiopia tender appears to be progressing slowly, while the latest Bangladesh tender was halted by a court order. Across the globe, buyers are pushing back against phosphate fertilizer prices that are exceptionally high when compared with downstream agricultural commodities, as well as with other fertilizer nutrients. Still, limited global availability should keep prices historically high, especially as China is set to exit export markets again in Q1.
POTASH
The US NOLA market was the only region to post a decline this week, slipping $5/st, while other regions held steady but faced mounting downward pressure amid sluggish global demand. The Brazilian market remained stable this week, with granular MOP prices holding at an average of $355/t CFR amid thin trade. While interest has picked up, buyers mostly remain on the sidelines, testing the waters rather than making firm commitments. Offers remain at $360/t CFR, but securing deals at this level is becoming increasingly difficult, with several suggesting the market now sits closer to $350–355/t CFR amid subdued demand during the off-season. Southeast Asian MOP prices remained mostly steady this week, but early signs of softening continue to appear. The tender season is gradually picking up, with some private plantation tenders in Malaysia hearing offers at $365–380/t CFR. While producers aim for stability, downward pressure is beginning to build. Palm oil prices continue to hold strong, acting as a solid backbone for the market and offering more favourable affordability than other regions.
The potash market in key regions appears to have firmly topped out, with the sentiment now tilting towards stability or softness in the coming weeks. In Northwest Europe, Q4 talks are progressing, with outcomes pointing to flat or slightly lower pricing.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices are advancing amid tight supply both east and west of Suez and what seems likely to be an extended outage in Saudi Arabia that may last until December or possibly beyond. The most recent spot sale from Saudi was confirmed this week at $420/t FOB by Sabic and the latest sales from Algeria, up to a high of $580/t FOB, pushed up delivered prices into Europe by an average $23/t. Rumours last week linking OCI to a purchase at $620/t CFR have still not been confirmed, although this purchase has now been outpaced by delivered values basis the latest Sorfert sales from Algeria. Buyers are covering shorts amid an extended unplanned outage at Ma’aden’s 1.1 Mt/year MPC unit that is expected to last more than two months with lost production of around 12 cargoes, or 300,000 t. Delivered prices into India are likely to increase further in the weeks ahead, based on higher export values from the Middle East. Prices in Southeast Asia and the Far East continue to rise. There is still hope that tonnage from Indonesia can plug some of the supply shortfall left by the Ma’aden closure. Last week Petronas confirmed that its 1.2 Mt/year Samur ammonia urea unit in Malaysia had resumed operations this week following a 45-day turnaround.
The outlook is firm east and west of Suez for the coming weeks with few spot tonnes and an extended outage in Saudi Arabia.
Morning. Int'l paper saw Oct Brazil Urea better supported y'day, and repeat trade $423cfr, (down to $420cfr the day prior), while Oct Brazil Amsul traded $175cfr. Nola quiet much of y'day, but Oct phys/paper found value mid/upper-$370s.
AG
Oct $410//$425
Nov $405//$420
Dec $400//$415
Jan $380//$405
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$425 – traded $423s
Nov $410//$420
Dec $406//$420
Egypt
Oct $417//$435
Nov $415//$430
Cfr Brazil Amsul
Oct $173//$180 – traded $175
Nov $168//$180
Nola
Phys: Oct traded $378, $375
Paper:
Sep $390//$400
Oct $375//$380 – traded $377
Nov $370//$380
Dec $375//$380
Jan $373//$387
Feb $370//$395
UAN Nola
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $780//$790
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Oct $640//$675
Nov $630//$670
china Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report – September 24, 2025
❤ Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea transactions were mainly at the lower-end quotations. Under pressure to complete orders before the holiday, factories needed to lower quotations to stimulate pre-sales progress. However, the overall pace of market follow-up was sluggish. Downstream buyers generally adopted a strategy of moderate replenishment on dips, with insufficient willingness for large-scale concentrated stocking. As a result, trading sentiment was difficult to effectively boost, and it remains to be seen whether new orders can achieve sustained volume growth.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: The supply atmosphere of the synthetic ammonia market differed between the north and south. In the north, supply was tight and downstream replenishment was active, so ammonia enterprises continued to support the market and push upward. In the south, supply and demand turned average, with high prices under downward pressure, and the market was in consolidation.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market continued weak operation. Sales of wheat fertilizer in the north were entering the final stage, while compound fertilizer enterprises were slow in reducing finished product inventories. Prices were being quietly lowered, ammonium chloride enterprises faced poor sales, and some still implemented provisional pricing policies. In the short term, demand is unlikely to improve, and the ammonium chloride market will continue at a low level.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market was dominated by a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream manufacturers replenished as needed, driving slight increases in some tender prices. At present, terminal inquiries have increased, but prices have not improved. It is expected that in the short term, the market will continue to show a stalemate with narrow fluctuations.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market was mainly cautious and wait-and-see. With a lack of favorable factors, market sentiment was biased toward pessimism. Operations were basically limited to just-in-time replenishment, and in the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, awaiting further guidance from news.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market showed weak performance. In Central China, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around 3,280–3,350 yuan/ton, with transactions remaining subject to negotiation. Prices of raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid continued to decline, weakening cost support, while overall demand remained sluggish and new orders were limited. In the short term, the weak and narrow adjustment trend is expected to continue.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market had a relatively stalemated trading atmosphere. Enterprises mainly continued to ship pending orders, with no obvious changes in ex-factory prices. Terminals generally maintained a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, mostly replenishing as needed. Supply of 64% product was relatively tight, and in the short term, the market is expected to continue consolidating.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Prices of imported potassium chloride in China gradually firmed, with the phenomenon of earlier low-price sales decreasing. Overall market circulation of goods remained limited, and traders’ quotations were temporarily stable. Lao white potash was mostly priced at 3,050–3,100 yuan/ton. The potassium sulfate market was not active in sales, with low-end prices still showing a slight downward trend.
❤ Compound Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market continued its consolidation trend. At present, most upstream raw material prices were at low levels, forming a bearish factor for compound fertilizer costs. Downstream distributors were cautious in replenishment, and the atmosphere for new order transactions was mediocre. In addition, the gap for rigid demand in the later stage of autumn fertilizer was limited. In the short term, enterprises mainly promoted transactions, with relatively flexible pricing. Attention is also needed on winter storage pre-sale policies in other regions.
ICE canola futures were near-flat on Wednesday as soyoil provided little direction.
• November canola settled up $0.50 at $618.10 per metric ton. January settled up $0.20 at $631.30.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had "very constructive" talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang about issues including canola.
• Canada's canola continues to pour in to farmers' bins as good weather in eastern prairie regions allows farmers to make fast progress with remaining crops.
• Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures fell 0.08%.
• Euronext rapeseed futures rose 0.32%.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.83%.
• The Canadian dollar fell 0.47%.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures retreated on Wednesday as China's active buying of Argentine soy fueled worries about lagging U.S. export demand.
Chinese importers kept up a hectic pace of Argentine soybean purchases after the South American supplier's move to abolish export taxes temporarily made its prices competitive, traders said on Wednesday. About 20 cargoes, or roughly 1.3 million tons, have been booked so far, traders said.
Top importer China has yet to book any of the current U.S. soybean crop during its trade war with Washington.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release weekly export sales data early on Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect net U.S. soybean export sales in the week ended September 18 at 600,000 to 1.6 million metric tons.
Soybean futures losses were limited by expectations that the USDA would lower its national yield estimate as more of the crop is harvested.
CBOT November soybeans settled 3 cents lower at $10.09 per bushel, just 4 cents above a six-week low posted on Tuesday.
CBOT December soymeal ended $1.20 lower at $276.10 per short ton.
CBOT December soyoil declined 0.04 cent to 49.84 cents per pound.
LONDON (ICIS)—In southeast Asia, hearing 30,000 tonnes of granular urea sold at 395 FOB for H1 October.
Morning. Urea prices came under pressure y'day; Intl paper focused on Brazil, as Oct traded $420cfr, and Nov $5 under. In Nola, Sep phys traded $4-$6 down from last done, Oct-Dec paper in $380-$375 range (down $5-$7), Jan either side of $380.
AG
Oct $410//$425
Nov $405//$420
Dec $400//$420
Cfr Brazil
Oct $418//$423 – traded $420
Nov $407//$418 – traded $415s
Dec $406//$420
Egypt
Oct $417//$440
Nov $417//$435
Nola
Phys: Sep traded $386, $384; Oct $378
Paper:
Sep $390//$400
Oct $375//$383 – traded $380, $378, $377
Nov $370//$380 – traded $377
Dec $375//$380 -traded $375
Jan $373//$387 – traded $383, $378
Feb $375//$395
Q1 traded $400 (500st)
UAN Nola
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $780//$790
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Oct $640//$675
Nov $630//$670
Industry China Morning Report (2025-09-19)
Phosphate Rock:
The phosphate rock market supply and demand remain in a state of tight balance. On the demand side, performance is relatively stable, with phosphate fertilizer and phosphate salt enterprises maintaining operating rates around 60%. However, constrained by the lack of competitiveness in downstream product prices, enterprises’ procurement enthusiasm is generally low. Overall, supply and demand are basically matched, price fluctuation space is limited, and in the short term the overall trend is mainly stable.
Ammonium Phosphate (MAP/DAP):
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market continued its weak tone, with new order trading sentiment relatively sluggish and prices remaining subject to actual negotiations. After continuous rises, raw material sulfur prices fell back, sulfuric acid prices continued to decline, cost support weakened, downstream only engaged in small-scale rigid demand procurement, with a mostly wait-and-see mentality. With weak demand, the short-term market will maintain weak and narrow-range adjustments.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market showed divergence. Enterprises still mainly focused on delivering pending orders. The tight supply situation of 64% grade product has not eased, and spot prices remained firm and moved upward. Meanwhile, 57% grade product, due to sufficient supply and slightly sluggish sales, saw weak downward prices. In the short term, the market will continue to operate in a consolidating manner.
Industrial-Grade Monoammonium Phosphate:
Yesterday, the industrial-grade MAP market was weak and stable with a wait-and-see attitude. The mainstream market average price for domestic 73% industrial-grade MAP was around 5,700 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations on a case-by-case basis. On the raw material side, sulfuric acid prices declined, slightly loosening MAP cost support. On the supply side, some enterprises reduced operating loads to ease inventory pressure. Demand remained weak, with limited new transactions. In the short term, the industrial MAP market will run weak, and future trends still need to pay attention to enterprise operating rates and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
Yesterday, domestic yellow phosphorus prices continued to soften. Prices in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan were in the range of 22,200–22,350 yuan/ton. Approaching the weekend, continuous price declines caused unstable sentiment in the yellow phosphorus market, with strong wait-and-see attitudes among participants. Downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm was not high, and traders operated cautiously. In the short term, market prices are difficult to stabilize, with the possibility of further tentative downward probing. It is recommended to focus on today’s tender results from a certain yellow phosphorus plant and actual spot market transactions.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, phosphoric acid market prices changed little, with mainstream factory quotations maintaining previous levels. Upstream phosphate rock prices were firm, while sulfuric acid prices were partially lowered, leading to poor cost performance for wet-process acid. On the demand side, supported by new energy orders, mainstream wet-process acid enterprises had sufficient orders, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. The thermal-process acid market, affected by continuous declines in yellow phosphorus prices, saw cost support continue to weaken, and prices are expected to soften in the future. In Sichuan, ex-factory net water thermal-process phosphoric acid was around 6,350 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, delivered net water was around 6,700–6,800 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated by volume.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP/MCP):
Currently, mainstream reference prices in Yunnan trade markets are 2,990–3,000 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, 3,140–3,150 yuan/ton; in Hubei, 3,220–3,250 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, mono- and dicalcium phosphate prices are around 4,240–4,250 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, around 4,300 yuan/ton. For monohydrate DCP, Yunnan prices are 4,700–4,750 yuan/ton, and Guizhou prices are 4,750–4,850 yuan/ton.
Pesticides:
The glyphosate market showed a stable-to-strong trend, with mainstream transaction prices remaining at high levels. Recently, overseas formulation orders have increased, boosting operators’ expectations. Reference price for 95% glyphosate technical is 27,500–28,300 yuan/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case by case.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfur market adjusted slightly downward, with overall trading atmosphere weak. Spot granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was around 2,660 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day, a 0.56% decrease, with prices under slight pressure. Currently, bearish factors dominate: continuous weakness in sulfuric acid prices directly impacts the sulfur market; downstream factories are cautious in procurement, preferring to buy sulfuric acid to fill raw material gaps under cost control pressure, significantly weakening sulfur demand support. A previous tender result of 2,558 yuan/ton from a large refinery failed to boost market confidence, instead reinforcing wait-and-see sentiment. With the approaching double holiday, terminal enterprises’ stocking willingness is poor, focusing on on-demand procurement. Domestic resources mainly run steadily, with shipments according to plan. Today, focus on spot market trading.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market continued to decline. Downstream fertilizer demand remained weak, with average trading atmosphere. With continuous external market reductions, Anhui’s main acid plant lowered prices by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, Jiangxi’s by 60 yuan/ton. In Fujian, bearish sentiment intensified under external influence. Southern acid plants, under earlier inventory pressure, cut prices by 90 yuan/ton, and coastal acid plants in overlapping sales regions also cut by 90 yuan/ton. Other regions generally reduced by 60 yuan/ton. Currently, 98% smelting acid delivered to Hubei plants is around 520–640 yuan/ton; in Fujian, around 570–600 yuan/ton.
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices remained temporarily stable, with low-end quotations relatively concentrated and fewer high-end transactions. On the raw material side, this week industrial-grade MAP and purified wet-process phosphoric acid prices were weak and stable, while ferrous sulfate prices are expected to rise due to accident-related impacts. On the production side, manufacturers’ operating rates varied: mainstream producers maintained high operating loads, while some export-oriented producers had lower loads. Overall, operating rates showed an upward trend. At the terminal, the energy storage sector continued to expand, while the power sector was relatively stable. With overall higher operating loads, upstream rigid demand procurement increased. It is expected that anhydrous iron phosphate operating rates will remain relatively high in the future, but with quotations concentrated in a narrow range, price increases will be difficult.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):
The LFP market prices rose slightly. Supported by downstream demand, lithium carbonate prices increased slightly, while iron phosphate prices remained stable and deadlocked. Overall, LFP cost support rose slightly. On the downstream energy storage side, it is reported that leading cell enterprises have scheduled orders generally until early November, with some enterprises scheduling until early 2026 due to sufficient storage orders. Today, transaction prices for power-type LFP are 33,200–36,200 yuan/ton, and for energy-storage-type LFP are 32,200–34,150 yuan/ton.
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market was temporarily affected by mixed supply-demand sentiment, with regions flexibly adjusting prices up or down depending on shipments. Later, considering that ammonia plants under malfunction or maintenance are scheduled to resume soon, the market will remain cautious before the holiday, focusing on destocking and shipments, with mostly stable to slightly adjusted operations.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market operated weakly stable. With terminal fertilizer use approaching, wheat fertilizer restocking continued. However, dragged by weakness in some raw materials, some one-on-one negotiations still existed. Overall, enterprise quotations remained stable, and raw material costs still provided some support, limiting the extent of concessions. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to continue weakly stable.
Hydrogen Peroxide:
Yesterday, the northern hydrogen peroxide market focus remained stable. Supply was basically stable, with water enterprises’ quotations temporarily steady. Major producers held firm on prices, with flexible order transactions. Most downstream maintained rigid demand, with average trading. In Anhui, supply-side plant operations were stable, with no pressure on producers, and prices steady. It is expected that in the main production areas of north and south, the market will continue low-level oscillating operation.
Morning. Quiet start to the week on Urea paper, as buyers/bids generally scaled-back. In Nola, Nov & Dec paper traded down, with values found in/around $380. Mkts framed;
AG
Oct $412//$430
Nov $405//$420
Dec $400//$420
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $420//$430
Nov $405//$425
Dec $406//$420
Egypt
Oct $422//$442
Nov $418//$435
Nola
Paper:
Sep $390//$405
Oct $380//$392
Nov $375//$385 – traded $380
Dec $380//$385 -traded $382
Jan $385//$393
Feb $387//$400
UAN Nola
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $780//$790
Oct $750//770
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $700//$725
Oct $645//$680
Nov $630//$670
Monday, 22 September 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria : Dangote has traded two spot cargoes of 30,000t granular urea each reportedly in the low-mid $400s/t FOB Lekki under its 19 September tender, with laycan 5-8 October and 11-13 October, respectively.
There is speculation that Chinese urea exports could increase further as restrictions are slowly being
relaxed, and continued growth in domestic production is adding more tonnes to the market. Unless a
headline restricts supply, it appears urea will continue its corrective trend into the offseason.
Amsterdam, 22 September (Argus) — Chinese urea shipments hit 797,000t in August, the most urea exported in the month since 2016, despite a lack of clarity on deliveries to India.
Chinese suppliers shipped the most urea in August since the 1mn t dispatched during the month in 2016, latest trade data show. Mexico was the top destination, accounting for 127,000t of shipments, with 117,000t to Ethiopia, catering to EABC'S tender awards.
Shipments to Latin America picked up, with 93,000t to Chile and 81,000t to Brazil. Suppliers sent 62,000t to east Africa's Tanzania, while 50,000t went to Vietnam. Exports to South Africa and Nepal were 34,000t and 33,000t, respectively.
India was a notable absence from the list of destinations, which may be attributed to a lag in data reporting or perhaps the heightened political sensitivities between the two nations.
Vessel tracking data from Kpler show around 53,000t of urea shipments went directly from China to India in August, with at least one more cargo in combination with ammonium sulphate.
India's IPL closed a buy tender on 8 August, buying 2.075mn t of urea, of which 646,000t is due to have shipped from China to India by 22 September. Suppliers appear to have loaded only one vessel from China in August, the Bulk Manara from Yide, with around 33,000t, and the rest are due to have shipped this month.
Attention is now turning to how long the Chinese urea export window will remain open. Market participants have cited 15 October as the mark for when shipments will start to slow, before suppliers shift focus to the domestic market.
Former SOCAR Top Executive Adnan Ahmedzade Arrested Over Schemes with Russian Oil
• In Baku, there was a sensation over the arrest of former Deputy Head of SOCAR’s Investment Department, Adnan Ahmedzade. He is known to have friendly ties with famous football players, among them Lionel Messi. He arrived at the Formula-1 race in Baku in a Maybach car with license plate 77-AA-555, where he was stopped by the State Security Service.
• He was accompanied by his personal bodyguards. Ahmedzade is accused of mixing Azeri Light oil with other crude oil types, damaging the reputation of Azerbaijan’s oil industry and market transparency, constituting a serious violation of Azerbaijani law.
• The Sabail District Court has ordered that Ahmedzade be held in custody for four months pending investigation.
• Ahmedzade is said to have been the hidden hand behind the company Alkagesta while at SOCAR. The Chairman of Alkagesta, Kamran Agaev, is a relative of Ahmedzade.
• Alkagesta is the largest oil bunkering company in Malta; it uses the Maltese oil terminal in Birżebbuġa to transport Russian oil via the “shadow fleet.” It also trades oil from Libya. The EU and UK are currently investigating Alkagesta for selling Russian oil in Europe using false certificates.
• In September, Ahmedzade was seen celebrating the founder of LUKOIL’s birthday in Bodrum; he was using the yacht “Genesis” owned by LUKOIL’s president, Vagit Alekperov. These events heightened suspicions about his role as a trusted associate of the Russian oligarch.
• The arrest is being called one of the biggest anti-corruption blows to Azerbaijan’s energy elite.
• A tanker called Blue Rose, which loaded oil from Russia in the Black Sea, after bunkering and offloading in Malta for Alkagesta, switched off its transponder before entering Yalova port in Turkey, hiding its route to Malta and its actual supplier.
• Alkagesta has repeatedly been accused of fraudulently registering oil as being from Turkish or Kazakh provinces.
• The Azerbaijani authorities are holding Ahmedzade responsible for mixing Russian oil with Azeri Light oil, transported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to Italy and Romania.
• It is alleged that over many years Ahmedzade created a network of companies within or related to SOCAR that openly or secretly facilitated supplying Russian oil to Europe using false certificates.
• After being dismissed from his position at SOCAR two years ago by presidential decree, Ahmedzade is still facing questions: how could he have arranged such mixing (if the allegations are true) after stepping down? Also, how legal is his continued influence or role via associated entities?
• Another company, Caspian Logistics Solutions (CLS), founded by Ahmedzade in 2018 after he left SOCAR Trading Geneva, is also accused of supplying Russian oil using false certificates. Its office is based in Dubai.
• Partners of CLS include both overt and covert carriers of Russian oil, such as Oil Mar DMCC, which in four years reportedly made a net profit of USD 1 billion. This company and Alkagesta were involved in a dispute over transporting 22,500 tons of Russian oil to Albania.
• Investigations claim that Alkagesta used falsified documentation to label Russian oil as from Turkmenistan, among other origins, including supplying to Turkey under Libyan documentation. Financial and customs documents related to Alkagesta have been published supporting these claims.
• According to documents, the structures behind these schemes include Socar Trading and Maddox via subsidiaries like OilMar Shipping DMCC in Dubai, Alkagesta in Malta, and Almedia in Turkey.
• Just three days ago, Alkagesta allegedly attempted to transport Russian oil into Spain via the port of Tarragona; this was blocked by the Spanish authorities.
• In Albania, prosecutors and police seized 22,500 tons of fuel of Russian origin; the official documents claimed false paperwork. Albanian media identified Alkagesta as being behind that shipment, reportedly linked to Azerbaijani citizens.
• Ahmedzade is also said to hold British citizenship. He is accused of using this to help conceal assets belonging to Vagit Alekperov and facilitating trade in oil from various Russian oil companies (e.g. LUKOIL, Tatneft, Sibur, Surgutneftegaz) using legal cover.
• One of the most sensational claims is that Ahmedzade is suspected of registering the superyacht Galactica Super Nova, worth about USD 108 million, in his name in coordination with Vagit Alekperov. The yacht was allegedly hidden in a Mediterranean port to avoid seizure by Western authorities.
• Ownership of Galactica Super Nova changed last year; before summer, it was owned by Malta-based Nova 70 LTD, controlled by Alekperov via other companies. Then, it was transferred to a shell company in the Marshall Islands (Six Star Shipping LTD), renamed Gaja. Recently, it was registered in the name of Adnan Ahmedzade (Luxstar LTD). It’s alleged this was done to avoid sanctions and hide assets.
• The transponder on the former Alekperov yacht was reactivated. The Galactica Super Nova was for sale in August 2021; Alekperov had asked for €75 million. The listing under its new name was published, but now the yacht is no longer for sale, though some brokers still list it under its old name.
• Given the seriousness and international implications, all entities and individuals tied to hiding the Galactica Super Nova, including Alkagesta Ltd and shadow companies run or affiliated with Ahmedzade, are urged to be officially investigated by the UK, EU, and international bodies.
Rumour next Indian urea tender will be announced this week
Morning. Sentiment softening across Urea last week – on Fri, Int'l paper saw Oct cfr Brazil trade down to low-$420s before finding some support, and Nov AG trade $420 (+$4 from Thurs). Mkts framed at close of week.
AG
Oct $420//$433
Nov $415//$425 – traded $420 Fri
_[Nov traded $416-$420 last week]_
Dec $405//$425
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $425//$430 – traded $423, $425 Fri
_[Oct traded $435-$423 l/w]_
Nov $415//$425
_[Nov traded $423 l/w]_
Dec $415//$425
Egypt
Oct $425//$442
Nov $420//$435
Nola
Phys: Sep traded $390 Fri
Paper:
Sep $395//$408
Oct $387//$400
Nov $385//$392
Dec $380//$388 – traded $385 Fri
Jan $388//$393 – traded $391 Fri
Feb $390//$403
UAN Nola
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $780//$790
Oct $750//770 – traded $755 Fri
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $700//$725
Oct $645//$680
Nov $630//$670