China domestic market 16/09/2025
❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the sulfur spot market remained at a high level. At the Yangtze River port, the mainstream transaction price for granular sulfur was ¥2,670/ton, an increase of ¥15/ton compared to the previous day. Currently, the bidding price for essential end-user procurement has reached a new high, and most holders are reluctant to sell and are observing the market. In the short term, the market’s ultimate direction still depends on whether terminal demand can provide effective support. Domestic resources are generally stable, with smooth shipments from various resource points. The Shandong liquid market continues to hover at a high level. Today, attention should be paid to actual transaction conditions in the spot market.
❤ Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea transactions slowed somewhat. Supported by pending deliveries, some enterprises raised their offers, but new orders fell short of expectations. The market trading atmosphere was cautious, and prices may remain in a temporary stalemate and consolidation in the short term.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: In major production areas, the overall supply and demand for synthetic ammonia appeared average. Although trading improved in some areas with reduced output, expectations of resumed operations at ammonia plants undergoing maintenance and the impact of low-priced sources on high-price markets are weighing on the outlook. Considering factors such as pre-holiday inventory clearance, the ammonia market may see short-term local stabilisation but will remain under pressure going forward.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, domestic ammonium chloride market trading was sluggish. Compound fertilizer enterprises were mainly focused on digesting inventory, showing low interest in inquiries for ammonium chloride. Ammonium chloride enterprises faced poor sales and mostly operated at reduced loads. With weak short-term demand, the ammonium chloride market remains in a weak state.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market continued to see a downward shift in negotiation focus. Supply remains relatively abundant, while demand is relatively weak. With the National Day holiday approaching, factories are more willing to ship. Close attention should be paid to today’s bidding developments. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a narrow-range stalemate with slight declines.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market continued to decline. Downstream demand was weak, and some previously halted enterprises are about to resume production. The market could not conceal its downward trend, with prices mainly falling.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained weak. Shipments were slow across regions, and new transactions were limited, with actual business mostly in negotiation. Raw material sulfur port prices continued to rise, but downstream demand remained sluggish. The weak trend is expected to continue in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued its stalemate. Enterprises were mainly focused on shipping pending orders, with limited fluctuations in ex-factory prices. The pace of supply reaching grassroots levels accelerated, but 64% grade supply remains tight. In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: The domestic potash fertilizer market showed relatively flat performance. Potassium chloride quotations remained temporarily stable, without further significant declines. Currently, the arrival price for domestic 60% grade is mostly between ¥3,100–3,150/ton, with slightly higher prices in some regions. The potassium sulfate market showed no significant changes, and manufacturers’ operating rates remain low.
❤ Compound Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market showed weak performance. Due to a lack of support from upstream raw material costs and increased inventory pressure at some enterprises in the late season, the focus was on clearing stock. As grassroots fertilizer use approaches, downstream distributors’ willingness to receive goods has improved. The current trading atmosphere is acceptable, and compound fertilizer is expected to continue a consolidation trend in the short term.
Bolivia produces 384,848 metric tons of urea between January and August
🔹 Between January and August 2025, the Marcelo Quiroga Santa Cruz” Ammonia and Urea Plant of YPFB recorded an accumulated production of 384,848 metric tons (MT) of granulated urea, said Marco Antonio Rocabado, Industrialization Manager of the state-owned oil company.
🔹 This amount represents a historic production record and exceeds by approximately 20% the accumulated production reached in the same period of 2024, when it registered 320,802 MT, Rocabado highlighted.
🔹 In July of this year, the highest monthly production of the fertilizer was recorded, with 59,327 MT. Likewise, the petrochemical complex produced 218,068 MT of ammonia between January and August of this year.
🔹 OPERATING OPTIMIZATION
To improve and optimize the operating conditions achieved, an operation and maintenance strategy has been planned, including activities to be carried out between 2025 and 2026, with the goal of ensuring the operational continuity of the petrochemical complex in the coming years. In addition, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos aims to improve current and historical production yields.
🔹 After the shutdown of this plant in 2020 and 2021, the petrochemical complex underwent a process of inspection, evaluation, and commissioning, which allowed operations and maintenance activities to resume as of September 2021. Since its reactivation, the petrochemical complex has maintained stable production, thanks to the implementation of a strategic plan to restore the operating conditions of the various affected equipment and systems.
🔹 CONTRIBUTION TO THE DOMESTIC MARKET
With the plant operating at full capacity, Bolivia has nearly eliminated the need to import this input, as it supplies 99.99% of the local market with domestic production. With a solid stock available and firm contracts with key entities, the state-owned oil company has positioned itself as a fundamental pillar in the supply of urea in the domestic market. The department of Santa Cruz absorbs the largest share of this fertilizer, followed by Cochabamba, La Paz, and Tarija.
🔹 In addition to contributing to food security in the country, the petrochemical complex, located in the town of Bulo Bulo, Cochabamba, generates economic income from the sale of fertilizer to the domestic market and foreign currency earnings for the country through the export of the surplus to neighboring markets such as Brazil, Argentina, and others.
🔹 In Bolivia’s Bicentennial year, YPFB projects to far exceed the record production of granulated urea achieved in 2024.
And 420 cif
Etg with full on Iranian cargo
Oracle
Kaltim granular 6,000mt : low 390
Pusri prilled LB : low 390
Camelot
Kaltim granular 6,000mt : low 390
Pusri prilled LB : high 380
Morning. Thin activity on Int'l paper to start the week. In Nola, Sep Phys traded $400 and Jan $398, as TFI conference kicked off. Mkts framed:
AG
Sep $430//$445
Oct $422//$440
Q4 $410//$430
Jan $380 Buyer
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $420//$440
Nov $408//$430
Dec $400//$416
Egypt
Sep $440//$455
Oct $435//$450
Nov $416//$435
Nola
Phys: Sep $400 traded, Jan $398
Paper:
Sep $398//$410
Oct $387//$400
Nov $385//$395
Dec $385//$395
Jan $385//$398
UAN Nola
Sep $325/$335
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $765//$780
Oct $755//770
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $695//$725
Oct $645//$685
Nov $630//$675
China Morning Brief) for September 16, 2025:
—
❤ Phosphate Rock:
Demand for phosphate rock remains stable. Operating rates at phosphate fertilizer and phosphate salt enterprises hover around 60%. Due to weak competitiveness in downstream product pricing, companies are generally cautious in procurement. Price fluctuation space is limited, and phosphate rock prices are expected to maintain a narrow-range oscillation in the short term.
❤ Urea:
Yesterday, most urea enterprises in key regions saw improved new order transactions. Short-term shipping pressure on manufacturers eased, and prices may see a slight increase. However, the duration of this round of market activity depends on transaction performance over the next couple of days.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
Market sentiment around synthetic ammonia supply and demand is mixed. In regions with short-term production cuts, such as Shaanxi, sentiment has improved. However, most areas remain average. While low-price transactions have picked up locally, new order bidding has stabilized temporarily. In the short term, most companies aim for steady shipments. Attention will shift to pre-holiday inventory clearance. In the long run, prices may still decline, mainly due to the eventual recovery of ammonia production following maintenance.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated weakly and steadily. Downstream compound fertilizer inventories remain high, leading to low purchasing intent under low-load operations. Ammonium chloride enterprises are facing sluggish shipments. For now, short-term demand remains sluggish, and the weak trend in the ammonium chloride market continues.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the ammonium sulfate market was mostly in a stalemate and wait-and-see mode. Supply and demand remain weak, and raw material factories continue to focus on active shipments. Some price points still have room for downward adjustment. Close attention should be paid to today’s bidding developments. The market is expected to remain weak throughout the week.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market saw sluggish trading sentiment. Enterprises have order-taking needs, but terminal demand remains weak with no signs of improvement. In the short term, bearish factors dominate the market, and prices may have room to decline.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained weak and stable. In Hubei, 55% powder ex-factory prices were negotiated at ¥3,300–3,350/ton. Although sulfur prices continue to rise, downstream demand remains lackluster, and the weak trend is expected to persist in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market was in a state of consolidation and observation. In Hubei, 64% ex-factory prices remained at ¥3,800–3,850/ton, with actual transactions negotiated. Supply of 64% grade remains tight, and downstream buyers continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, maintaining demand-based procurement. The short-term market is expected to remain in a stalemate.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, high-end prices in the domestic potassium chloride market continued to decline slightly. Imported 60% white powder potassium chloride was mostly priced at ¥3,050–3,150/ton, but high-end prices are gradually converging toward the lower end, with most transactions negotiated individually. The potassium sulfate market maintained previous price quotes, but new order transactions were not active, and overall shipments were relatively average.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. Upstream raw materials were steady to weak, affecting cost expectations for compound fertilizers. However, the autumn fertilizer gap in northern regions is larger than in previous years. Amid cost and supply-demand dynamics, the short-term compound fertilizer market is expected to continue a stable-to-weak narrow-range consolidation trend.
Traders' quotes on September 16 China donestic
Nitrogen fertilizer1⃣
Boca Raton 1455
Tianrun 1500 (Shipping must be taken)
Chiufeng 1500
Longhua 1495
Golden Bag 435
Large Orchid Particles 1725
Large coal particles in Texas
Spot 1775
phosphate fertilizer2⃣
Three rings 57% brown 3,540
Three rings 64% brown 4090
Accenture 64% Yellow 4040
Gieves 57% yellow 3510
Kimfery 64% brown 4060
Earth cloud sky 62% – 3750
Xiangfeng 53% brown 3320
Ginseng contains 55% potassium diammonium
The Accord is 57% yellow🎉🎉
Henan, Shandong and Liaocheng have advantages
potash fertilizer3⃣
Port of Yantai Meisheng Coral Potash 3490 (50 kg)
Potash for agriculture in Liuzhou 3450
China Domestic market:
Q4 analysis of the large-granule urea market
1. Changes in production in Shanxi: In late September, Tianze underwent maintenance, but Lu'an and Lan Hua resumed production at the same time, resulting in a daily output of approximately 6,400 tons at the end of the month. From mid-October to mid-November, the daily output increased to 9,400 tons and remained at this level until the end of the year. Since there were no concentrated maintenance activities in Shanxi during the fourth quarter of last year, the production output during the same period this year was significantly lower.
2. Overall domestic supply: Although Shanxi experienced a reduction in production, it was offset by the newly commissioned Shanxi Huaxi plant and improvements in secondary supply from places like Shandong. As a result, domestic production is projected to reach 3,563,900 tons in the fourth quarter of this year, still higher than the 3,470,600 tons produced in the same period last year.
3. Market demand situation: The fourth quarter is for stockpiling needs, and the first quarter is for essential needs. This year, due to the decline in prices, the stockpiling needs in Northeast have been postponed. Currently, the inventory is lower than last year, and there will be periodic replenishment needs later on. Additionally, there is a growing demand for large-sized granules of fertilizer in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, which may lead to stockpiling needs in November and December.
4. Price and Trend Analysis: The current mainstream factory selling price of large-granule urea in Shanxi is between 1725 and 1730 yuan/ton, which is still 180 yuan/ton lower than the previous low price. There might be a slight increase in the short term due to equipment maintenance, but based on the supply trend and the timing of demand, there are not yet sufficient conditions for a genuine rebound.
Gd
Iranian producers announced $375 as official price this week.
Morning. Last week, NFL tender concluded, Int'l paper focused on cfr Brazil Urea, with Oct contracts trading in $20 range, while Nola paper saw activity across Q4 months into Jan. Mkts framed end of week:
AG
Sep $430//$445
Oct $422//$440
Q4 $410//$430
Jan $380 Buyer
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $435//$445
_[Oct traded $423-$442 range last week]_
Nov $410//$430
_[Nov traded $428 l/w]_
Dec $401//$416
Egypt
Sep $440//$455
Oct $435//$450
Nov $416//$435
Nola
Phys: FH OCT $400 traded, Dec $389, Jan $396 Fri
Paper:
Sep $398//$410
Oct $387//$400 – traded $395 Fri
_[Oct traded $392-$403 range l/w]__
Nov $385//$395
Dec $385//$395
_[Dec traded $375-$384 range l/w]_
Jan $385//$398
UAN Nola
Sep $325/$335
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $765//$780
Oct $755//770
_[Oct traded $768-$760 range l/w]_
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $695//$725
Oct $645//$685
Nov $630//$675
(Fertilizer Industry China Morning Brief) for September 15, 2025:
—
❤️ Urea:
Last week, the domestic urea market continued its downward trend. The market lacked effective support, trading activity was low, and companies had poor order intake. The overall trading atmosphere was weak. Downstream factories and traders continued to make moderate purchases when prices dipped, with procurement remaining relatively scattered. The imbalance between strong supply and weak demand remains unresolved. The market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.
❤️ Synthetic Ammonia:
The supply and demand in the synthetic ammonia market were average. Ammonia enterprises that had experienced malfunctions or maintenance gradually resumed operations. Considering the upcoming end-of-month holiday, pre-holiday inventory clearance may gradually begin. With limited improvement in demand, the market atmosphere is mixed, and regional market linkage continues to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether production cuts or shutdowns will occur as prices gradually decline.
❤️ Ammonium Chloride:
Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated weakly. Some ammonium chloride enterprises implemented temporary or guaranteed bottom pricing policies, but downstream compound fertilizer enterprises did not show increased purchasing enthusiasm, still mainly replenishing inventories based on rigid demand. The trading atmosphere remained subdued, and short-term demand is unlikely to improve. The market is expected to continue its weak performance this week.
❤️ Ammonium Sulfate:
The ammonium sulfate market continued to decline last week. Due to weak terminal demand, domestic transaction sentiment remained sluggish. During the week, some granular factories made purchases based on rigid demand and rare earth needs, which may narrow the range of price adjustments. The market is expected to continue its supplementary decline in the short term, with strong wait-and-see sentiment.
❤️ Melamine:
Last week, the domestic melamine market remained weak. The supply-demand structure was fragile, and enterprises had order-taking needs, but demand remained sluggish. Under sales pressure, price reductions by enterprises cannot be ruled out.
❤️ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained weak. Mainstream ex-factory prices were temporarily stable with sporadic small declines. Although raw material sulfur prices continued to rise, overall demand did not improve. The market is expected to maintain a weak and stalemated operation in the short term.
Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in a stalemate. There were no significant fluctuations in ex-factory prices. The trading atmosphere warmed slightly, but supply of 64% grade was tight, while demand for 57% grade was weak. Terminals generally maintained a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The market is expected to remain in a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term.
❤️ Potash Fertilizer:
Last week, the domestic potash fertilizer market showed a continuous decline in prices, especially for potassium chloride. Although the market maintained a dual pricing system, high-end prices continued to approach low-end prices. Market demand was limited, and overall transactions were not active. Potassium sulfate manufacturers were gradually resuming operations, but new orders were limited. The situation of supply exceeding demand persists.
❤️ Compound Fertilizer:
Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market operated in a narrow consolidation range. Autumn fertilizer shipments are still ongoing. Some enterprises with high inventory pressure increased clearance operations, making new order transactions more flexible. Reference price for 45% high-nitrogen wheat fertilizer was 2320–2550 yuan/ton ex-factory. Additionally, the weak trend of raw materials affected downstream operational sentiment. However, with grassroots fertilizer usage approaching, the pace of shipments is expected to improve. Compound fertilizer is expected to maintain a consolidation trend in the short term.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures increased on Friday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture delivered a bearish, but unsurprising, monthly crop report.
The USDA projected U.S. yield at a slightly higher-than-expected 53.5 bushels per acre, compared with 53.6 bushels in August.
It pegged production at 4.301 billion bushels, up from 4.292 billion bushels a month earlier as the agency increased harvested acres.
The agency raised its U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast by 10 million bushels, but some analysts said the increase was lower than expected.
CBOT November soybeans rose 12-3/4 cents to $10.46-1/4 a bushel.
CBOT December soymeal settled $0.90 higher at $288.60 per short ton.
CBOT December soyoil ended 0.57 cent higher at 52.17 cents per pound.
The U.S. dollar drifted higher on Friday, a day after falling on a surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest inflation uptick, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week that is likely to cut interest rates after a roughly nine-month hiatus.
The greenback rose 0.2% to 147.53 yen , rising for three straight weeks. The dollar firmed earlier on Friday after a U.S.-Japanese joint statement affirmed exchange rates should be "market determined" and that excess volatility and disorderly moves in exchange rates were undesirable.
The dollar index was little changed at 97.59, but stayed on track to post a weekly fall of 0.1% for its second consecutive weekly decline.
John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY in New York, said Friday's gains were more about position-squaring ahead of the weekend.
"The broader picture is still quite negative for the dollar on a variety of measures," Velis said. "One, of course, is the Fed now beginning to cut rates. The other is, we still see hedging behavior taking place, so foreign investors buying U.S. assets and selling the dollar to hedge it, which is going to keep pressure on the dollar."
Data showing U.S. consumer sentiment falling for a second straight month in September weighed slightly on the greenback.
The University of Michigan said on Friday its consumer sentiment index fell to 55.4 this month, the lowest since May, from a final reading of 58.2 in August. Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting a reading of 58.0, little changed from the month before.
"If the Fed delivers the rate cut that is widely expected next week, and they signal that more rate cuts are coming, businesses may find optimism that they have an opportunity to recapture margin lost to tariffs, and consequently they can increase their capacity to increase headcount," wrote Tom Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, in a email after the data.
On Thursday, data showed the biggest weekly increase in four years in the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits.
That overshadowed U.S. consumer inflation data for August, which showed prices rising at the fastest pace in seven months but with increases still modest and broadly in line with expectations.
While the mixed data might add some wrinkles to the Fed's policy deliberations next week, investors are mostly focused on rate cut prospects.
Pricing of Fed fund futures indicates that the market believes the Fed is certain to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on September 17.
However, traders have reined in bets on a larger 50 bps rate cut next month, with pricing implying a shallower path of easing before the end of the year than anticipated earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose 4.9 bps to 4.06%. On Thursday, the yield fell below 4% for the first time since April.
The euro was flat versus the dollar at $1.1736 , a day after rising, as traders curbed their bets on another European Central Bank rate cut this cycle to bet on another move at less than 50%.
The ECB kept its key interest rate on hold at 2% for a second straight meeting on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde saying that the euro zone remains in a "good place" and that risks to the economy had become more balanced than before.
Fitch Ratings, meanwhile, is expected to give its verdict on French public finances after Friday's markets close following the confidence motion on September 8.
"Going explicitly against the direction of its (Fitch) model and 'manually' downgrading the rating would require the agency to come to the conclusion that the balance of power between stakeholders of public funds has tilted further away from financial creditors since the last rating decision in spring," Citi analysts wrote in a research report.
Among other currencies, sterling was little changed at $1.3564 , after data showed the British economy stagnated in July, while the Australian dollar was a touch softer at US$0.6651 , not far from a 10-month high.
https://www.journalacri.com/index.php/ACRI/article/view/1364/3281