MOSAIC EXTENDS PHOSPHATE CURTAILMENTS AS SULPHUR INVENTORIES DECLINE FURTHER.
Mosaic has confirmed additional output reductions across its North American phosphate operations, citing continued raw material supply constraints traced directly to the Hormuz disruption. Bartow, Florida and Faustina, Louisiana were already running at reduced rates. Riverview, Florida and Uncle Sam, Louisiana are now added to the curtailment list. Multiple customers believe Faustina has effectively halted; Mosaic has not confirmed the scale of the individual pullbacks.
Brazil is also cutting further. SSP production and mine activity were idled in April. Phosphate rock output was paused in May. The additional curtailments announced today extend that pattern. Mosaic withdrew its 2026 phosphate production guidance of at least 7Mt earlier in May.
The backdrop is a sulphur inventory problem, not a demand problem. Hormuz has constrained Middle East sulphur flows. Without sulphur, sulphuric acid production stalls, and without acid, phosphate conversion cannot run. The facilities being curtailed are not making a commercial decision. They are running out of feedstock.
One structural offset has appeared. Washington paused countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports for eight months last week, clearing the way for OCP tonnes to re-enter the US market. Mosaic originally lodged the injury complaint against Moroccan imports in 2011. The duty pause is a tacit acknowledgement that domestic supply cannot currently meet demand. OCP will be watching the US market carefully.
For buyers: DAP and MAP availability out of US Gulf origins is tightening in real time. OCP re-entry may soften the supply picture somewhat but Moroccan volumes take time to place and ship. CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia benchmarks should reflect a tighter supply corridor until Hormuz risk resolves or Mosaic restarts.
In India the Phos Acid settled contract price for Q3, was heard at USD 1700 CFR and NH3 between Yara and Mosaic monthly contract for July was head done at USD 665 CFR
CHINA UREA: DOMESTIC PRICES FIRM BUT SEASONAL PRESSURE BUILDING AS INVENTORIES CLIMB.
Prilled urea ex-works holding at CNY 1,770-1,780/t; granular at CNY 1,790-1,820/t. Both steady week on week. Residual top-dressing demand in east China is providing support but the signal is clearly fading. Production is running at 218.7kt per day and factory inventories have risen to 1,235.8kt. The seasonal direction from here is predictable: off-season domestic demand will compress the market further in coming weeks.
On exports, indications are USD 380-390/t FOB for prills and USD 390-400/t FOB for granulars, broadly stable on the week in line with a flat global market. The Distributors Association held a meeting Saturday and the majority of members were reportedly pushing for a reduction in the minimum floor price and extended validity on first-period quotas. NDRC declined to move. The floor stays where it is. Unless global benchmark levels recover to close the gap with Chinese minimums, significant incremental Chinese tonnage is not coming. Four to five vessels of Chinese-origin cargo were heard to have supplied the most recent India tender.
Due to the new round of attacks in the straits of Hormuz – sanctions have been placed back on Iran
DRC COPPER AND COBALT EXPORTS HOLD DESPITE GULF DISRUPTION TO SULPHUR AND ACID FLOWS.
The DRC exported 823,887 tonnes of copper in Q1 2026, up 4.8% year on year. Cobalt hydroxide shipments came in at 51,940 tonnes, up 24.5%. Output has held through long-term contracts and strategic inventory management despite the tightening of regional sulphur and sulphuric acid availability caused by the US-Iran Gulf conflict and Zambia’s decision to prioritise domestic supply.
The supply constraint is most acute in the chemical backhaul into the Copperbelt. Sulphuric acid is critical for leaching oxide ores. Constrained Zambian exports have reduced tanker movements northbound into the DRC, extending delivery times and lifting input costs. Government officials in Kinshasa have flagged the risk of further cost pressure if disruptions persist.
A shift by Congolese miners toward East African and Indian Ocean port sourcing would reshape long-haul acid and reagent flows through regional corridors. That reconfiguration has not materialised at scale yet, but producers with exposure to alternative sourcing routes are worth watching.
The broader corridor picture is constructive. Strong export volumes imply firm two-way utilisation across the North-South route to Durban, the Lobito Atlantic Railway, TAZARA to Dar es Salaam, and the Walvis Bay-Ndola-Lubumbashi corridor through H2 2026. Cobalt quota releases under the 96,600-tonne annual cap will create stop-start volatility. Operators able to flex capacity around those release windows, particularly those positioned for emerging acid and reagent routes into the Copperbelt, stand to capture the resulting freight demand.
And the Egyptian sales continue, priced being pushed up a further +5/mt, latest selling price usd 440 fob.
With traders now viewing this market at the bottom I think we shall EU, Brazil and other markets start testing the waters.
highly likely India will call a urea tender in July also.
and on top of that, if you have been following the paper markets – they have also suggested the bottom was in.
Direct Hedge is pleased to announce a new Granular Urea Fob Nigeria swap with immediate effect. Settlement process is in line with existing contracts, olympic average of ICIS and Profercy on a weekly basis and a monthly settlement calculated as a simple average of all weekly indices.
And another gran urea sale in Egypt’s just been heard at usd 435 fob now…
Latest gran urea sale from Egypt has just been heard at USD 430 fob for July shipment, implying our previous call for the bottom being in looks correct.
**PAPER FORWARD CURVE/Futures** by Falcon
**AQ View:** The forward momentum is now appearing in future months suggesting the floor price is now in for urea
Quiet start to the week on Int'l paper, while Nola Urea saw July phys trade up slightly into low-$360s, as paper activity focused on Mar '27 contracts at $405. Mkts framed:
*AG*
Jul $380//$400
Aug $385//$405
Sep $385//$410
*Brazil Urea*
July $407//$420
Aug $412//$430
Sep $415//$440
*Egypt*
Jul $405//$420
Aug $410//$445
*Brazil Amsul*
Jul $185//$205
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jul $170//$190
*Nola Urea*
Phys: July traded $363
Paper:
Jul $357//$365
Aug $371//$380
Sep $371/$385
Oct $370//$385
Q4 $370//$390
Q1 $390//$410 – Mar traded $405s
*DAP Nola*
Jun $770//$790
Jul $735//$750
Aug $725//$750
Sep $735//$755
*MAP Brazil*
Jul $850//$890
Aug $850//$890
Sep $840//$880
QATARI LNG TANKER STRUCK IN HORMUZ. SPOT LNG PRICES SURGE ON RENEWED STRAIT RISK.
This marks the first direct hit on a Qatari LNG carrier in the current conflict. It matters because Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter and any credible threat to its fleet changes the risk calculus on Hormuz passage immediately. Dutch TTF was up 3.5% to EUR 45.675/MWhr in Asian trade following the news.
For fertilisers: the attack complicates the Hormuz reopening, luckily most of the phosphates managed to escape in time
Egypt, MOPCO sold 20kt of granular urea at USD 420 FOB for second half July shipment.
**KAZAKHSTAN SUSPENDS ALL SULPHUR EXPORTS WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT**
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy issued Order No. 1363 on 26 June, imposing a full ban on sulphur exports effective 27 June 2026. All forms — liquid, granular, lump — are covered. All logistics operators are bound. The sole carve-out permits rail shipments to Russia. No end date has been specified.
Kazakhstan produces around 4Mt of sulphur annually, roughly 5 percent of global output, almost entirely as a by-product from TCO, NCOC, and Kazmunaigas hydrocarbon operations. The country had already been facing disrupted export routes after Russia banned transit of Kazakh sulphur through its rail network in May 2026. The outright ban now closes what remained of the export window.
The timing matters. Russia extended its own sulphur export restrictions through to 31 December 2026 just days prior. Two of the world’s largest sulphur-producing nations have now simultaneously shut their export doors. Combined, Russia and Kazakhstan account for a material share of seaborne sulphur supply. The gap they leave will not be filled quickly.
For phosphate producers, sulphur is not optional. It is the primary feedstock for sulphuric acid, which is the feedstock for phosphoric acid, which is the feedstock for MAP, DAP, and SSP. Tighter sulphur supply feeds through directly into phosphate production economics. With China’s sulphuric acid export position also constrained, the feedstock chain is being squeezed from multiple directions simultaneously.
**AQ View** Expect upward pressure on both sulphur and phosphate prices in the near term. Origins outside the CIS, Middle East, Canada etc will attract increased attention.
Iran sets gran urea price target again at usd 340 fob for this week
**Forward Paper Curve/Futures** by Falcon
Urea paper values trended lower over the course of last week, as mkt awaits further direction following IFA. Paper framed end of week:
*AG*
Jul $380//$400
Aug $385//$405
Sep $380//$410
*Cfr Brazil*
Jul $407//$420 – traded $414 Fri (2.5k)
Aug $415//$420
_[Aug traded $440 l/w]_
Sep $420//$440
_[Sep traded $450 (0.5k) l/w]_
*Egypt*
Jul $400//$420
*cfr Brazil AS*
Jul $185//$205
Aug $185//$210
*FOB China (Compacted) AS*
Jul $170//$190
*Nola Urea*
Paper:
Jul $350//$360
_[Jul traded $368 l/w]_
Aug $358//$368
_[Aug traded $375-$355 l/w]_
Sep $367/$375
_[Sep traded $370-$368 l/w]_
Oct $365//$380
Q4 $365//$385
Q1 $385//$400
*DAP Nola*
Jul $750//$780
Aug $730//$755
Sep $735//$755
*MAP Brazil*
Jul $850//$890
Aug $850//$890
Sep $840//$880