Morning. India answered the question of 'when' last week, but uncertainty remains over China's role in upcoming tender. Int'l paper initially moved higher on RCF news, but some of those gains eroded thereafter. Mkts framed close of week.
AG
Oct $395//$410
_[Oct traded 403 last week]_
Nov $402//$407 – traded $400 Fri
_[Nov traded $395-$412 range l/w]_
Q4 $400//$410
Jan $375 Bid (1k)
Cfr Brazil
Oct $421//$429
_[Oct traded $413.50-$427 range l/w]_
Nov $410//$418
_[Nov traded $405-$423 range l/w]_
Dec $405//$415
Egypt
Oct $430//$448
Nov $425//$445
Dec $415 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Nov $168//$180
Nola
Phys: DEC traded $380, Jan $381 Fri
Paper:
Oct $380//$385
Nov $370//$385
Dec $381//$385
Jan $380//$385 – traded $383
Feb $385//$392
Mar $395//$410
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$750
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
Morning Magnus
Iranian producers announced $367-370/mt as official price this week.
The highest bid in Lordegan tender was $366/mt but the producer’s didn’t award and has issued a counteroffer to bidders to improve the bids until Wednesday at 13:00 IRST.
China Ammonium Sulphate AugExport Data 2025.
August 2025 alone: 1.85 million tons
2024 Jan–Aug: 10.03 million tons
2025 Jan–Aug: 12.89 million tons
Morning. Int'l paper saw Oct Brazil trade low/mid-$420s late y'day ($5-$3 under last done Tues), while Nola urea loaded barges continued to attract a premium prior to river close. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $402//$417
Nov $405//$415
Q4 $400//$415
Jan $375 Bid (1k)
Cfr Brazil
Oct $422//$429 – traded $422, $424
Nov $412//$422
Dec $407//$420
Egypt
Oct $435//$450
Nov $425//$450
Brazil Amsull
Oct $172//$180
Nov $165//$178
Nola
Phys: Prompt traded $392.50; Jan $383, $383.50, $385
Paper:
Oct $380//$387
Nov $380//$387
Dec $381//$385
Jan $385//$395 – traded $388
Feb $390//$400
Mar $405//$415
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$750
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Oct $640//$675
Nov $630//$670
Grain markets dominated by bearish sentiment.
We’ve now expanded our grain coverage, and the full analysis is live on Vesper.
Flour and wheat prices declined further on the back of record global production forecasts. USDA raised global 2025/26 wheat output by 9.3 mmt to 816.2 mmt, with higher estimates across Australia, Russia, and the EU. Stocks in the US also came in higher year-on-year. Euronext milling wheat fell €3/mt to €186/mt, while CBOT Soft Red Wheat dropped 12.5c/bu to 508c/bu.
Flour and Wheat
– French wheat flour (11.5%): €280/mt (−€4/mt)
– Euronext wheat: €186/mt (−€3/mt)
– CBOT SRW: 508c/bu (−12.5c/bu)
– Global production forecast: 816.2 mmt (+9.3 mmt y/y)
– EU soft wheat: 132.6 mmt (↑ from 128.1 mmt)
Corn and Starch
– CFR Rotterdam starch: €550/mt (−€10/mt)
– Euronext corn: €181/mt (−€5/mt)
– CBOT corn: 415.5c/bu (−10.75c/bu)
– Global corn production: 1,297.3 mmt (+5% y/y)
– US August ending stocks: 38.9 mmt vs 44.8 mmt last year
Barley
– EXW Canada malt barley: CAD 233/mt (−CAD 11/mt)
– EU production forecast: 55.7 mmt (↑ from 53.7 mmt)
– Australia crop: 14.7 mmt (vs 13.3 mmt last year)
– Russia crop: 19 mmt, exports 3.4 mmt
Soybeans
– CBOT soybeans: 1,002c/bu (−10c/bu)
– FOB Up River Argentina: $400/mt (−$4/mt)
– Argentina suspended export taxes temporarily, triggering >2.6 mmt of sales to China and 300,000 mt of soy oil to India
– USDA US crop: 117.05 mmt (+0.23 mmt)
– Global production: 425.9 mmt (−0.5 mmt)
𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤: Machine learning forecasts flat to bearish trends for wheat and corn. Barley may see seasonal upside into December, but larger crops will cap gains. Soybeans remain mixed—technical signals point down, but CBOT could strengthen if Chinese demand for US beans returns
-INDIA UREA TENDER STOPPED THE SLIDE IN UREA PRICES HOWEVER THE MARKET WILL NEED OTHER ORIGINS TO STEP UP BUYING FOR PRICES TO HOLD
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE SLIDING
-POTASH PRICES ARE HOLDING DESPITE MUTE DEMAND
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE FIRMING
UREA
The international urea market is waking up from an induced state with the announcement of India again tendering for 2 million MT with offers to close on October 15h with latest shipment on or before December 10th.
The immediate impact of this announcement was higher values across the board. Algeria sold at USD 448 PMT FOB, Egyptian producers upped the ante and achieved as high as USD 445 PMT FOB. Offers in Brazil reached between USD 430-440 PMT CFR. Iranian producers are at USD 370 PMT FOB, but it is expected higher values will follow. Middle East producers have been struggling to place volumes, and some reports suggest that one producer sold at USD 380 PMT FOB for Nepal and then subsequently achieved closer to USD 400 PMT FOB.
The big issue is again China. It is estimated that there is still around 250 KT unsold urea from the current quota which needs to be cleared (CIQ) by October 15th and shipment by the end of the year. There have been some rumours of another quota which would be the 4th, however, China is on national holiday between October 1-8 thus no information will be coming out until after the conclusion of the break. Current FOB levels in China range between USD 390-410 PMT FOB, prilled and granular respectively. Winter is coming in north China and that means NPK producers will need urea as raw material inputs as well as the traditional winter storage program will kick in. The flip side of the coin is that production rates are still high thus there could be some possibility for the 4th export quota to come into effect.
Mexico imported 807 KT between Jan-Jul this year, down from 1.2 mill last year during the same period. More than half came from Russia. Turkey imports between Jan-Aug were 1.63 mill MT, down from 1.92 mill MT last year. Egypt supplied 534 KT with Iran/Oman at 516 KT.
Urea exports from Indonesia for January-August were 1.07m. tonnes, down from 1.21m. tonnes over the same period last year. This year, 366,000t were exported to India, along with 237,000t to Australia and 132,000t to the Philippines. In August, 184,000t were exported, down on the 209,000t in August 2024. This was largely made up of exports to India, with 163,000t, along with 17,000t to the Philippines.
In summary, although India has come out with another massive tender, other markets need to come into play for the urea price to keep the current momentum of increased levels. As we have seen many times in the past, India alone is no guarantor for increased urea prices. Brazil, Europe and the US must be added to the import equation now that both Australia and Thailand are coming to an end with their seasonal purchases.
PHOSPHATES
Phosphate fertilizer prices across the globe remained on a downwards trajectory this week, as softer demand continued to add pressure despite China's impending exit from export markets. Across the globe, buyers are pushing back against phosphate fertilizer prices that are exceptionally high when compared with downstream agricultural commodities, as well as with other fertilizer nutrients. Still, limited global availability should keep prices historically high, especially as China is set to exit export markets again by Q1.
The key India DAP spot benchmark dipped to $778-795/t CFR from $795/t CFR flat, with a 50,000 MT deal around the low end and the high end increasingly unlikely on any upcoming business. Arrivals remain strong, stocks have increased, and buyers are reluctant to commit to fresh purchases in a softening market, especially as the DoF is yet to confirm subsidy rate for the coming Rabi season. The assessment had been stable at $810/t CFR flat for three weeks before starting to decline five weeks ago. It is still up from $632-634/t CFR at the end of February and $690-700/t CFR at the start of May. The deal led to spot prices for DAP exports from China being assessed down at $750-775/t FOB from $770-775/t, though overall market activity was limited due to Golden Week holidays.
DAP suppliers in China are seeking as high as $770-780pt fob despite weak demand and still as much as 650,000t availability on the 2025 quota.
Most Chinese suppliers put prices at $770pt fob and indicate the NDRC will not allow them to export any lower at this point. However, no demand is seen at this price currently.
Some trader reports suggest the latest $778pt cfr DAP deal to India already had cover from China as low as $750pt fob but suppliers in China deny this. Other traders indicate $760pt fob has been offered from China with no new deals concluded.
Five lots of 61,000t DAP were lowest from China Ethiopia’s DAP tender two weeks ago, with the lowest China price at $782.75pt fob. Some sources note extra costs bring the price to as low as $775pt fob China. EABC then countered as low as $660pt fob seeking revised offers by 1 October.
Bangladesh was seen as another key outlet for the extra China DAP supply but the MoA’s planned tender for 165,000t DAP was halted two weeks ago. Reports suggest Bangladesh may be about to retender, but this has not been confirmed. Roughly 120,000t DAP was awarded to Chinese suppliers in the previous Bangladesh tender for September loading at roughly $782pt fob.
Reports also suggest DAP offers to Southeast Asia dipped to $790pt cfr to try and secure demand, or $770pt fob China, though bids are seen as low as $750pt cfr and no new deals are confirmed. Latest Pakistan offers at $795pt cfr reflect no higher than $770pt fob while latest Latin America DAP prices reflect no higher than $755pt fob.
OCP exported 8.5Mt phosphate fertilisers in the first eight months of 2025, a 5.6% rise yr-on-yr from 8.0Mt, according to latest Office Des Changes data.
August export volumes were down 2.8% at 1.1Mt, following July exports at 1.2Mt and June exports at 1.2-1.3Mt. Third-quarter exports are expected to have concluded at an average of roughly 1.15Mt per month.
Though yet to be confirmed, the Jan-Aug exports are understood to include a surge in TSP exports to roughly 2.25Mt from 1.6Mt, a rise in DAP/MAP exports to 5.15Mt from 4.7Mt, an increase in NPK exports to roughly 725,000t from 579,422t, and a slump in NP/NPS exports to around 320,000t from 1.1Mt.
January through December 2024 exports reached a record 12.37Mt, up 13% yr-on-yr from 10.95Mt in the same period 2023 and 30% higher than 9.52Mt in 2022. These volumes were 1Mt above the 11.3Mt OCP exported in 2020, the previous record.
With OCP’s capacity rising to roughly 16.0Mt through 2025, the company is now forecast to export 13.4Mt and produce 13.8-14.0Mt phosphate fertilisers in 2025 (85% of capacity).
Notably DAP/MAP/TSP exports are now forecast to rise as much as 1.7Mt in 2025 due partly to the absence of 800,000t NPS sales to Ethiopia. The expected 2025 total exports reflect more than a 4.0Mt rise in availability over three years from OCP.
Dyno Nobel has announced that they will shut down the 1 million MT name plate capacity Phosphate Hill MAP/DAP facility (Queensland, Australia) in September 2026 unless not sold by 31st March 2026. Further, the 350 KT SSP plant in Geelong will be closed in October.
POTASH
Potash prices stayed largely unchanged this week, with buyers still on the sidelines. Attention is shifting to Southeast Asia’s tenders, where buying interest is slowly stirring, while Q4 talks in Northwest Europe continue—though healthy demand is yet to make an appearance. Southeast Asian MOP prices remained unchanged this week as market participants await the outcomes of recent tenders. Demand has continued to improve gradually, supported by an increased volume of tender activity. Price direction remains uncertain, with some anticipating near-term stability while others expect declines. Several participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer indications of demand before making decisions. Palm oil prices continue to provide support in the region. Overall, the market remains cautious and stable. Brazil’s MOP market remained steady at around $350-360/t CFR for the fourth consecutive week, with limited activity as the market remains out of season. A narrower range of $350- 355/t CFR continued to apply pressure, though producer offers held firm at $360/t CFR. Planting for the upcoming soybean season has begun, covering approximately 3.5% of the forecasted area by late September, according to sources.
Potash prices are expected to remain stable to slightly soft in the near term, with the market leaning towards short-term stability. Participants are closely watching upcoming tender results in Southeast Asia, which could help provide clearer pricing direction. These benchmarks are also likely to play a role in shaping upcoming contract negotiations in China and India.
AMMONIA
With capacity constraints starting to bite both sides of Suez, firmer prices are seen in all regions for October, with even higher numbers heard for November loadings in the Middle East and Asia Pacific. The bullish trend was reflected in the $50pt jump in the Tampa contract for October loadings, with the figure of $590pt cfr taking the US benchmark back towards a level last witnessed in late 2023. The settlement between Yara and Mosaic was widely expected given the recent hikes in spot prices in North Africa and Northwest Europe. Mosaic has also been highly active in the spot market of late, with up to 60,000t of Caribbean material heading to Florida.
The outlook for spot prices is firm as the global market is tightening, exacerbated by the Ma'aden outage in Saudi Arabia.
Samsung and keytrade (hengyi) Chinese normal amsul on offer at usd 230-235 cfr Ravenna
Morning. With RCF tender announced, and higher phys sales in Egypt/N.Africa, Int'l paper remained supported y'day. Nov AG traded either side of $410, Nov Brazil found value in low-$420scfr. Nola urea moved higher on the day – Prompt phys $392, Dec paper repeat traded $383.
AG
Oct $409//$418
Nov $407//$415 – traded $412, $407
Q4 $400//$415
Jan $375 Bid (1k)
Cfr Brazil
Oct $422//$431
Nov $418//$425 – traded $423
Dec $410//$420
Egypt
Oct $435//$450
Nov $425//$450
Nola
Phys: Prompt traded $392; Nov traded $383
Paper:
Oct $380//$387 – traded $381
Nov $380//$387
Dec $381//$385 – traded $381, $383s
Jan $387//$400
Feb $390//$400
Mar $405//$420
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$750
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Oct $640//$675
Nov $630//$670
I can go with that, but only if the softeness in the market holds. As noted, NOLA and Brazil are down. Indonesia is at $412 from last sales tender, so that could still figure. Aditya Birla too two cargoes at that price to cover some of their Indian awards.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling below the psychological $10 threshold after U.S. President Donald Trump said soybeans will be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks.
CBOT November soybeans settled 11-1/4 cents higher to $10.13 per bushel.
CBOT December soymeal ended 30 cents higher to $273.60 per short ton while December soyoil rose 0.93 cent to end at 50.42 cents per pound.
Earlier in the session, soybeans dropped below the psychological $10 threshold after U.S. lawmakers said China is unlikely to make purchases of U.S. soybeans in the near future.
Soybean prices have been dampened in the past week by concern over China shunning U.S. supplies in favor of imports from South America, just as the U.S. new crop is being harvested.
China booked a large volume of Argentine soybeans last week during a brief export tax waiver decreed by Buenos Aires, according to traders.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that there were 316 million bushels of soybeans in storage as of September 1, compared with 342 million a year ago, according to its quarterly stocks report. Analysts expected 323 million bushels.
Nearby ICE canola futures briefly fell beneath $600 on Wednesday before rebounding, but lagged far behind soyoil's hefty gain.
• November canola settled up $2 at $607.20 per metric ton. January rose $1.50 to $619.70.
• The November contract's sojourn beneath $600 on Wednesday is likely to spook farmers, a trader said, but it is hard to anticipate their response. Many have good wheat and other crops they can sell instead of canola if they choose to lock the bin doors until they see better prices.
• Canada's new crop canola exports and movement are far behind last year's pace, as a lack of export sales has grain companies backing away from purchasing from farmers, traders said.
• Canola continues to flow into farmers' bins as good harvest weather has seen the Canadian harvest speed ahead.
• Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures rose 1.88%, far exceeding the modest gains of canola.
• Euronext rapeseed futures were flat.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.83% on bargain buying and tight stocks.
• The Canadian dollar fell.
The U.S. dollar slid to two-week lows against the yen on Wednesday after data showed private-sector jobs in the world's largest economy contracted last month, boosting expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two more times this year.
Against the euro and sterling, the dollar fell to one-week troughs in the wake of the jobs data.
Data showed that U.S. private employment shrank by 32,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 3,000 decline in August, according to the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 following a previously reported 54,000 advance in August.
"The job situation seems to just be getting a little bit worse, data point after data point," said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto.
"The ever-weakening U.S. jobs market is the big story. And with the official data sources on hold because of the shutdown, some people might like it actually because those data sources haven't been very reliable lately."
U.S. rate futures have priced nearly 50 basis points of cuts this year following the ADP data, from about 43 bps of easing on Tuesday, with market-implied odds of around 99% for an October rate move, according to LSEG data.
The jobs data followed a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, on Tuesday. The report showed U.S. job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market.
The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, gained more attention from investors seeking fresh clues on the labor market as the Labor Department's more comprehensive and closely followed employment report for September will not be published on Friday.
The private sector jobs report came amid a U.S. government shutdown, which commenced hours after the Senate rejected a short-term spending measure that would have kept government operations afloat through November 21.
Senate Republican Leader John Thune said the chamber would vote again on the House-passed measure on Wednesday.
"We are concerned with the government shutdown, which also does not bode well for the buck," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.
"The dollar has few reasons to remain a beacon of strength and reliability when the American government is closed and there is evidence presented that Americans are struggling to find jobs."
In afternoon trading, the dollar fell 0.6% against the yen to 147.07 yen, after earlier falling to its weakest since September 17. The greenback was flat against the Swiss franc at 0.7967 franc .
The greenback also fell to a one-week low against the euro, which was last up 0.1% at $1.1738 .
Sterling also rose to a one-week high versus the dollar, and was last up 0.3% at $1.3487 .
The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, fell to a one-week trough, and was last down 0.2% at 97.68. The broader markets bore a few hallmarks of safe-haven buying, giving low-yielding currencies such as the Japanese yen a bid, while U.S. Treasuries and gold held firm.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned congressional Democrats on Tuesday that letting the federal government shut down would allow his administration to take "irreversible" actions including closing programs important to them.
The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt data releases in the event of a partial shutdown. That includes Friday's scheduled nonfarm payrolls release, considered key in determining whether a Fed rate cut is likely at the end of this month.
The length of any shutdown may be key for markets, as the Fed's next policy decision on October 29 remains weeks away.
In contrast, traders are placing a roughly 40% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month. The central bank's quarterly "tankan" corporate sentiment survey on Wednesday showed confidence among big Japanese manufacturers improved for the second straight quarter and firms maintained their upbeat spending plans.
BOJ officials have tilted more hawkish in recent days, including formerly dovish board member Asahi Noguchi, who said on Monday that the need for policy tightening was increasing more than ever.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Egypt, MOPCO sold 6,000 tonnes of granular urea at $440/tonne FOB for loading in the second half of October.
https://fertiglobe.com/fertiglobe-completes-acquisition-of-wengfu-australias-distribution-assets/
RCF urea tender closing 15th October
Last date of shipment 10 December
Validity 30th October
Quantity : 2 MMT (1 each on east and west)