Is this right @Matthew O’leary – Aquifert
London, 19 September (Argus) — Moroccan phosphate fertilizer giant OCP plans to ramp up technical MAP (tMAP or 12-61) water-soluble fertilizer production at its Jorf Lasfar hub by a factor of five to 500,000 t/yr by 2030.
This would make OCP the world's largest producer by some distance.
OCP produces 12-61 under the brand name Nutridrop, but also provides the product in neutral and private-label bags to markets in Europe, north Africa and the Middle East, Asia, Latin America and North America.
The current facility, which came on line in 2019, is running close to its 100,000 t/yr capacity, but will be steadily expanded over the next five years.
tMAP is used on high-value crops such as vegetables, fruits, vines, flowers, turf and ornamentals. It is used in open-field irrigation or as a foliar application, as well as a raw material in water-soluble NPKs. It is particularly useful in early growth stages. Another key and growing end-user market is lithium ferrous batteries for electric vehicles.
China has been the largest producer and exporter, loading an estimated 370,000t of tMAP for export in 2024. But exports can fluctuate through the course of year because of customs inspections and a desire to ensure domestic supply at times of peak demand. Other key producers include Russia and Israel, as well as countries in northwest Europe.
Producer is Tianji – but cargoes sold by a local trader
“Grain sowing area, cultivated land area, and production from 2017 to 2024 (Units: thousand hectares, billion kilograms)”
• Left Y-axis: Sowing area (thousand hectares)
• Right Y-axis: Total grain production (billion kilograms)
• X-axis: Years 2017–2024
Accompanying text:
“According to the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2025–2034), grain yield per unit area is expected to increase by 6–10% over the next 10 years, and fertilizer demand will also rise.”
According to statistics, from January to August 2025, China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, hereinafter referred to as Mainland China) exported a total of 27.92 million tons of various fertilizers, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. Ammonium sulfate was the fertilizer type with the highest cumulative export volume, with 12.8954 million tons exported from January to August. Due to the sudden increase in exports of 8-40-0 nitrogen-phosphorus dual-nutrient compound fertilizers, the cumulative export volume of nitrogen-phosphorus dual-nutrients, as recorded under the HS31055900 tariff code, reached 3.5213 million tons, making it the fertilizer type with the largest year-on-year increase in export volume.
Morning. Softer tone on Int'l urea paper y'day – Nov AG found value at $416, bids on Oct/Nov Brazil scaled back $5. Nearby Nola urea phys came under pressure, with Sep barges trading $398-$390. Mkts framed:
AG
Sep $430//$440
Oct $420//$435
Nov $410//$420 – traded $416
Dec $400//$420
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $420//$432
Nov $410//$425
Dec $408//$420
Egypt
Sep $440//$452
Oct $425//$442
Nov $415//$430
AMS cfr Brazil
Oct $167//$175
Nola
Phys: Sep traded $398, $395, $390
Paper:
Sep $395//$408
Oct $387//$400
Nov $385//$393
Dec $390//$395
Jan $392//$395 – traded $395
Feb $390//$403 – traded $400
UAN Nola
Sep $325/$335
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $755//770
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $700//$725
Oct $645//$680
Nov $630//$670
-INTERNATIONAL UREA PRICES ARE UNDER ENORMOUS PRESSURE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL INDIA ANNOUNCES ANOTHER MAJOR UREA TENDER
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO HOLD WITH MUTED DEMAND AND RESISTANCE TO HIGH PRICES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS
-POTASH PRICES ARE ALSO UNDER PRESSURE WITH BRAZIL SETTING THE PACE
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE BULLISH ON BOTH SIDES OF THE SUEZ
UREA
The urea market is comatose; traders and producers are both focused on covering the most recent India urea tender which was capped with a volume of 2 million MT leaving an overhang of at least 500,000 MT to be placed in other markets. Although India is expected to come back into the market with another tender – that could take a few weeks. In the meantime, who is to contradict a prediction that the market price for urea could drop to sub USD 300 – there simply is very little demand activity going on – even Brazil is mute with activity normally picking up October onwards. In addition, China is contemplating issuing a 4th export allocation to add to the already expected 700,000 MT to be supplied to the current India tender.
This week we saw Pupuk Indonesia drop their urea prices to USD 412.50 PMT for apparently two large urea cargoes – down from the owner’s expectation of USD 430 PMT. Egyptian producers are also finding it difficult to place new urea offerings at USD 450 PMT FOB with most bids noted at the USD 430-435 PMT fob. EABC of Ethiopia tender saw prices drop to sub USD 420 PMT FOB Adebiya, Egypt put forward for October but further out, $410/t was seen for November and $405/t FOB by January/February 2025. The US market is off the radar ahead of the closing of the river for the season. The Middle East producers will certainly place considerable volume in India and will need another India tender to keep the ball rolling at current prices in the absence of Brazil whose netbacks are sub USD 400 PMT FOB.
What is clear is that the urea price is under considerable pressure and dropping across the board. Only another India will save the urea price from dropping further.
PHOSPHATES
Prices for phosphate fertilizers across the globe were again stable to lower this week, with MAP in the west under particular pressure, though fresh spot deals were limited overall. Sentiment has turned increasingly bearish amid slower demand and greater buyer resistance to prevailing prices given poor affordability, though DAP is relatively better supported given firm demand from some key destinations. DAP demand includes the 16 September tender for 549,000 t to Ethiopia, which received offers from nine companies, including supply from China, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Egypt. Fertistream was at L1 with supply from Russia at $780/t FOB for Lots 6 and 8. Market players were also waiting for the latest import tender for Bangladesh, which was also set to close 16 September, but this was halted by a court order, according to sources. The assessment for DAP exports from China decreased further to $770-780/t FOB from $770-790/t. Although the official export price floor was recently raised to $780/t FOB, last sales on the previous Bangladesh import tender suggest netbacks in the $770s/t FOB, and offers for supply on the Ethiopia tender were also indicated within the lower range. There are now no markets that will provide higher netbacks on spot business. The key India DAP spot benchmark dipped further this week to $799-803/t CFR from $799- 806/t, and there were unconfirmed reports of a fresh deal done below the low end. The assessment had been stable at $810/t CFR flat for three weeks before starting to decline three weeks ago. It is still up from $632-634/t CFR at the end of February and $690-700/t CFR at the start of May. The one assessment that bucked the trend was the Jordan DAP export price, which was up to $790-820/t FOB from $790-810/t after a deal was reported at the higher end. Still, details were scarce, and repeatability is very much in question as even netbacks at the low end of the range would be challenging to any market now. Though DAP demand from Ethiopia adds some support to the market, the importer was expected to return with a tender around this time, while market participants were less confident of additional China export quotas until they were announced. The lack of supply from China has been the main reason for market tightness this year. India's offtake deals with Morocco and Saudi Arabia have also helped to sate the key demand driver of this year's DAP/MAP price rally. Even weaker MAP markets were illustrated by a further decline in the key Brazil CFR benchmark, which was assessed down at $710-725/t CFR after three consecutive weeks at $730-735/t amid a lack of activity. The assessment declined four weeks ago from $750/t CFR after falling from a peak of $760/t CFR during the first three weeks of July, which represented the highest level since September 2022. The price had increased from $640/t CFR in mid-March this year. The US NOLA MAP price also declined further this week, though DAP inched upwards. Buyers are pushing back against phosphate fertilizer prices that are exceptionally high when compared with downstream agricultural commodities, as well as with other fertilizer nutrients.
POTASH
Potash prices edged down modestly in the US NOLA market and in China, while early signs of weakening emerged in Southeast Asia, reflecting the overall soft demand across global markets. Spot MOP prices in Brazil held at $350-360/t CFR after last week’s $5/t drop. The market remains slow with limited liquidity. Offers around $360/t CFR are becoming scarce, while bids have fallen to $340-345/t CFR. Availability for September and October is tight, and no 2026 forward offers are currently available. Southeast Asia experienced limited price movement following last week’s price rise to their highest levels since June 2023. Despite the recent increase, early signs of softening have emerged, with one producer noting buyers pushing back and seeking $5–10/t discounts amid weak demand. Tender activity is slowly gaining momentum in Indonesia and Malaysia, with deliveries expected from December and larger tenders anticipated in the coming weeks. In other news, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) fertilizer tender scheduled for 16 September was postponed following a High Court stay linked to supplier complaints. The tender included 160,000 t of MOP with shipments required by 30 October. The earlier 5 August tender saw no MOP awards due to pricing issues.
Demand remains weak across major global markets, with Brazil seeing the most pronounced downward pressure amid limited buying activity. Potash prices are expected to soften gradually in the coming weeks.
AMMONIA
Higher spot prices and price targets were heard in all regions over the past few days, but no new business was confirmed amid bullish sentiment triggered by supply constraints. This pattern was also seen in the US, where a spot cargo was left at Mosaic’s tanks at Tampa, albeit the reported price of $560pt cfr has yet to be verified. Such a figure would represent a $20pt premium over the contract settlement for this month, while an even higher number has been heard for prompt spot business into Northwest Europe. Again, details of the reported $620pt cfr sale – said to involve a Dutch buyer – are elusive, but an ammonia plant at the Geleen industrial park was forced offline late last week, according to the site’s authority. East of Suez, manufacturers and traders note a rush in requests for spot deliveries for October and even November arrival into Northeast Asia. The loss of more than 100,000t per month of Saudi material is behind the sudden uptick, with one spot cargo from Indonesia about to arrive in China. A price of $410-420pt cfr Zhanjiang has been heard for that imminent delivery, with firmer fob numbers seen across the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Although industrial demand for ammonia tends to fall in the northern hemisphere as year-end approaches, the loss of those dozens or more Saudi cargoes has spooked plenty of players in key import nations. Ahead of confirmed spot numbers, prices are assessed as unchanged in the West, but firmer in the East on a notional basis given the far stronger bullish sentiment.
LONDON (ICIS)—In Indonesia, granular urea sales concluded at $412.50/tonne FOB for September-October shipment.
Morning. Int'l paper saw Oct Brazil find value at $430cfr y'day (down slightly from Tues), while Nola Urea paper activity focused on Dec/Jan, with trading levels in $392-$398 range.
AG
Sep $430//$445
Oct $420//$438
Nov $414//$430
Dec $400//$420
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $425//$430 – traded $430
Nov $417//$425
Dec $405//$415
Egypt
Sep $440//$455
Oct $430//$448
Nov $418//$440
AMS cfr Brazil
Oct $171//$175
Nola
Paper:
Sep $395//$408
Oct $387//$400
Nov $385//$393
Dec $390//$395 – traded $393, $392, $395
Jan $392//$398 – traded $398, $395
Feb traded $405
UAN Nola
Sep $325/$335
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $765//$780
Oct $755//770
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $695//$725
Oct $645//$680
Nov $630//$670
The Nitrogen Association is soliciting suggestions and opinions on the next steps for fertilizer regulation. Please take the time to reflect on your views and suggestions regarding the regulation efforts and provide any relevant written materials. Feedback should be submitted to the association by September 22.
According to statistics from China's customs, in August 2025, China exported a total of 5.09 million tons of various fertilizers; among them, 800,000 tons of urea, 1.86 million tons of ammonium sulfate, 550,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, and 440,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate.
From January to August 2025, China exported a total of 2,792 million tons of various fertilizers, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. The cumulative export amount reached 5,768 million US dollars, with a year-on- year increase of 54.6%. Among them, urea exports totaled 1,440 million tons, with a year-on-annual increase of 492.3%; ammonium sulfate exports totaled 1,290 million tons, with a year -on-year increase of 28.5%; diammonium phosphate exports totaled 2,130 million tons, with a year on year decrease of 19.1%; monoammonium phosphate exports totaled 1,040 million tons, with ayear-on-year decrease of 28.4%.
Based on nutrient conversion, China's cumulative exports of urea, ammonium sulfate, and ammonium phosphate from January to August totaled 5.359 million tons in terms of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium pure nutrients.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, NCIC sold 4,000 tonnes of granular urea at 447 FOB for September and 10,000 tonnes at 452 FOB for October. Don’t have more details.
CHINA
– $330 CFR heard done in the south
INDIA
-IFFCO & CIL heard enquiring
-$340+ offers heard
INDONESIA
– Two cargoes heard done at $335 CFR
MIDDLE EAST
-Muntajat tender closing 22 Sep
-Rumoured India cargo at $340 CFR nets back to $320s FOB AG
AMERICAS
– Vancouver $300+ FOB discussed for new biz
– USG – $280+ last referenced but I suspect higher now
Morning. Int'l paper activity focused on Brazil once again yday – Oct traded mid/low-$430s cfr, and Nov found value in low-$420s, with bid support thereafter.
AG
Sep $430//$445
Oct $422//$440
Nov $408//$427
Dec $400//$420
Cfr Brazil
Sep $433//$445
Oct $427//$435 – traded $432, 35, 32, 31
Nov $421//$429 – traded $423
Dec $406//$414
Egypt
Sep $440//$455
Oct $435//$450
Nov $416//$435
Nola
Paper:
Sep $398//$410
Oct $387//$400
Nov $387//$398
Dec $390//$400
Jan $390//$403
UAN Nola
Sep $325/$335
Oct $308//$330
Nov $320//$340
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $765//$780
Oct $755//770
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $695//$725
Oct $645//$680
Nov $630//$670
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