China Morning Report (2025-10-10)
Phosphate Rock:
Domestic phosphate rock is affected by a relatively balanced supply-demand fundamental. In major producing areas such as Guizhou and Hubei, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock market is mainly stable. In the short term, phosphate rock prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range. It is necessary to pay close attention to the impact of winter storage policies and changes in sulfur prices on the transmission along the industry chain.
Agricultural Ammonium:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market continued to operate weakly. Scattered low-end supply continued to affect sentiment, with many participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude, few inquiries, and transactions remaining on a case-by-case negotiation basis. Raw material sulfur prices rose sharply, but downstream demand was sluggish, and actual orders were limited. In the short term, weakness will persist, and plant operating rates will continue to decline.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market was sluggish. Raw material prices continued to rise sharply, and production costs remained under pressure. Affected by rainy weather, terminal procurement willingness was weak. Market trading activity is expected to improve somewhat, but in the short term, the market will continue in a stalemate and wait-and-see pattern.
Industrial-Grade Monoammonium Phosphate:
Yesterday, the industrial-grade MAP market: the mainstream market average price of 73% industrial-grade MAP in China was around 5,700 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations conducted case by case. On the first day after the holiday, the market showed no obvious dynamics. Enterprises, affected by raw material prices and demand, are expected to adjust operating rates, while downstream buyers continue to purchase on demand. In the short term, the industrial ammonium market is expected to remain weak and stable, with future trends depending on enterprise operating rates and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
After the holiday, the yellow phosphorus market was stable to weak, with light trading and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. On the supply side, post-holiday spot supply was sufficient, while demand recovered slowly. Downstream and traders continued to press prices in inquiries, putting pressure on holders’ sentiment. Yesterday, mainstream quotations in Yunnan were at 21,800 yuan/ton, with intended inquiries at 21,700 yuan/ton. Mainstream transaction references in Guizhou and Sichuan were 21,900–21,950 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated case by case.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic phosphoric acid market continued to show divergence. On the first working day after the holiday, thermal-process acid raw materials operated weakly, with prices maintaining a stalemate. Wet-process purified phosphoric acid saw partial supply tightening. Market participants focused on raw material price trends and the commissioning of new capacity. In South China, ex-factory prices of thermal-process purified phosphoric acid were around 6,600–6,700 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, delivered purified phosphoric acid was around 6,700–6,800 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated by volume.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP):
Yesterday, the DCP market operated in a stalemate. Rising sulfur prices further pressured raw material sulfuric acid production costs. With news of a potential rebound in sulfuric acid prices, inquiries increased, and concentrated signing activity was good. Currently, mainstream reference prices in Yunnan’s trade market are 3,020–3,050 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, 3,150–3,180 yuan/ton; in Hubei, 3,260–3,270 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the mainstream price of monocalcium/dicalcium phosphate is 4,150–4,170 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, 4,240–4,300 yuan/ton. In Yunnan, the price of monohydrate DCP is 4,650–4,660 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, 4,730–4,750 yuan/ton.
Sulfur:
Before the holiday, the domestic sulfur spot market mainly moved sideways at high levels. At Yangtze River ports, the reference price for granular sulfur spot resources was 2,730 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous working day. Affected by the double holiday, market trading was average, with both buyers and sellers closing early and few inquiries/offers. The tender result of 2,623 yuan/ton from a large refinery failed to boost the market, instead stimulating holders’ confidence in post-holiday operations. Domestic resources mainly shipped at stable prices before the holiday, while the Shandong liquid market continued at high levels. Today, focus is on the tender from a large refinery and spot market transactions.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market showed mixed movements. Raw material sulfur prices rose to a new high for the year, providing rigid cost support. In addition, Anhui and Jiangxi both have maintenance plans this month, leading to expectations of reduced supply. In Jiangsu Zhangjiagang, a major acid producer raised prices by 50 yuan/ton yesterday; today, a major producer in Zhejiang also raised prices by 50 yuan/ton. In Shanxi, due to previously higher prices compared with Henan, prices fell slightly by 30 yuan/ton yesterday. In Jiangxi, supported by chemical demand and upcoming maintenance, prices rose today by 30–50 yuan/ton. Currently, in Hubei, the delivered price of 98% smelter acid is around 460–560 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the ex-factory price of 98% ore acid is around 490–620 yuan/ton.
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices remained flat, with continued bargaining between upstream and downstream. Sellers’ offers were in the range of 10,000–11,000 yuan/ton, while buyers’ bids ranged from 10,000 yuan/ton and below to around 10,500 yuan/ton. In terms of operations, driven by terminal market demand, iron phosphate operating rates hit new highs, with mainstream producers maintaining high-load operations. A few producers temporarily shut down for maintenance due to raw material fluctuations. On the demand side, attention focused on storage orders and heavy truck demand. With downstream product upgrades, the share of the iron-process route is expected to increase in the future. On the price side, upstream producers kept prices stable before the holiday, but there may be some upward adjustments after the holiday. Overall, bargaining continues, and cost pressures remain.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):
The LFP market showed overall stability with minor fluctuations. Lithium carbonate supply remained stable, with spot prices fluctuating. Iron phosphate producers found it difficult to raise prices, leading to a stalemate. Overall, LFP costs remained supported. Market fundamentals continued to be favorable, with storage demand boosting procurement of LFP. Recently, LFP producers showed stronger willingness to raise prices. In the short term, LFP is expected to fluctuate in line with raw material cost logic. Today, transaction prices for power-type LFP were 33,200–36,200 yuan/ton, while for energy-storage-type LFP they were 32,200–34,150 yuan/ton.
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market operated with regional adjustments. Recently, after price increases in various regions, market observation sentiment was strong. Urea supply-demand conditions continued to weaken, and some caprolactam producers were expected to reduce operating rates. Although concentrated equipment failures in northern ammonia plants supported the market, in regions with obvious incremental supply, weak downward adjustments were expected. Overall sentiment remained cautious.
Compound Fertilizer:
Upstream raw materials continued to adjust, providing insufficient support for the compound fertilizer market. Continuous rainy weather delayed autumn harvest and planting in many areas, affecting market sales. Enterprises continued to reduce inventory and execute orders, with some transactions relatively flexible. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to adjust weakly, with heavier negotiation sentiment in some regions. <This message was edited>
On October 9, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China stood at 1,443,900 tons, an increase of 212,200 tons from the previous week and a rise of 17.23% month-on-month. During this cycle, the inventory levels of urea enterprises saw a significant increase. During the National Day period, continuous rainfall was observed in multiple regions, leading to weaker demand from both industrial and agricultural sectors. Although there were orders from previous periods that needed to be fulfilled, due to a decrease in essential demand, the shipment volume did not meet expectations. As a result, most urea enterprises experienced an increase in their inventory levels. The provinces with increased inventory levels included Anhui, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jilin, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan. On the other hand, the provinces with decreased inventory levels were Hainan, Hebei, and Chongqing.
Morning. Slight stand-off on Int'l paper y'day w/ AG and cfr Brazil values largely range-bound, and Egypt in search of further definition. In Nola, Feb phys barges held value $390-$391. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $395//$404
Nov $395//$404
(Oct/Nov Bids got to $398)
Dec $385//$405
Jan $375//$400
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$428
Nov $409//$415
Dec $400//$410
Egypt
Oct $425//$445
Nov $415//$430
Dec $410 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Dec/Jan $168 Bid
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $390, $391
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $370//$380
Dec $370//$380
Jan $377//$385
Feb $390//$395
Mar $395//$405
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $300//$325
Dec $290//$320
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$745
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
Phosphate Rock:
The overall phosphate rock market is operating steadily. Enterprises are progressing with signing contracts and shipments in an orderly manner, and some mining companies are still maintaining reasonable inventory levels. The supply side of the market remains stable, with producers and traders mainly fulfilling previous orders and prioritizing supply needs of long-term cooperative customers. Downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises are adopting a more cautious procurement strategy, and both supply and demand sides remain in a dynamic game.
Ammonium Phosphate (Agricultural Grade):
As the long holiday approaches, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remains weak. In Central China, the ex-factory price for 55% powder is 3280–3350 RMB/ton, with actual negotiations ongoing and some low-end prices still present. Raw material sulfur prices continue to rise, but downstream demand remains sluggish, with limited follow-up on new orders. In the short term, the market continues to operate in a weak and consolidating manner.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued its stalemate. Raw material sulfur prices kept rising, putting pressure on costs. Enterprises are mainly focused on shipping pending orders. As goods gradually arrive in the market, trading activity is slowly increasing, and terminal demand is gradually being released. In the short term, the market remains in a volatile consolidation phase.
Industrial Grade Monoammonium Phosphate:
Yesterday, the industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market showed weak and stable consolidation. The mainstream market average price for 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate was around 5700 RMB/ton, with actual negotiations conducted case-by-case. The trading atmosphere in the market was average, and actual transaction volumes were low. Factories are currently supported by pending industrial-grade orders. The short-term market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see consolidation phase. Future developments will depend on enterprise operating rates and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
As the holiday approaches, the yellow phosphorus market has entered a wait-and-see mode. In Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan, the ex-factory transaction reference price is 21800–22000 RMB/ton, with significant regional price differences. The supply side remains abundant, and under high inventory pressure, enterprises are clearly under strain. Price negotiations are bearish, demand-side inquiries and purchases are light, and market sentiment is heavily wait-and-see. Prices are running weak and stable. The real test for the post-holiday market lies in whether high supply can be absorbed. If prices continue to fall and approach production cost lines, small factories may proactively reduce or halt production, thereby providing price support from the supply side.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, the phosphoric acid market remained stable. Yellow phosphorus prices were weakly consolidating, and thermal-process phosphoric acid prices were in a stalemate. In some regions, supply contracted due to maintenance. As the National Day holiday approaches, in-transit orders are decreasing, and market participants are gradually exiting. The trading atmosphere is average, and attention is focused on the commissioning of new capacity in wet-process phosphoric acid enterprises. In South China, the ex-factory reference price for purified thermal-process phosphoric acid is 6600–6700 RMB/ton, and in Jiangsu, the delivered price is around 6700–6800 RMB/ton, with actual orders negotiated by quantity.
Dicalcium Phosphate:
The dicalcium phosphate market remains stable, with no significant positive news released. Market participants’ wait-and-see sentiment continues to rise. Some factories have holiday maintenance plans. Enterprise quotations overall continue previous levels without significant fluctuations. Current mainstream reference prices in the trade markets are: Yunnan 3000 RMB/ton; Sichuan 3150–3180 RMB/ton; Hubei 3250–3060 RMB/ton. For monocalcium and dicalcium phosphate: Yunnan monocalcium/dicalcium 4120–4150 RMB/ton; Guizhou monocalcium/dicalcium 4300 RMB/ton; Yunnan dicalcium phosphate 4650–4660 RMB/ton; Guizhou dicalcium phosphate 4730–4750 RMB/ton.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the domestic port sulfur spot market continued its strong upward trend. The reference price for granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was 2730 RMB/ton, up 1.11% from the previous day. As terminal factory procurement demand gradually follows up before the holiday, the market has optimistic expectations for future trends. Buying enthusiasm has significantly increased. Currently, spot offers remain scarce, and traders are eager to chase higher prices. Actual transaction negotiations are rising with market heat. Overall, the market shows tight supply and strong upward momentum. Domestic resources are mainly shipped at stable prices. In Shandong, the liquid market rose slightly due to pre-holiday stocking. Northwest and Northeast markets remain stable. Today’s focus is on pre-holiday return shipments.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw regional adjustments. In Jiangxi, downstream enterprises’ stocking intentions have strengthened recently. Some sulfuric acid units are scheduled for maintenance after the holiday, and supply is expected to tighten. Combined with high sulfur prices, the main acid plants in the region raised prices: 98% acid by 20 RMB/ton and 105% acid by 50 RMB/ton. In Shandong, previously maintained ore acid enterprises plan to resume after the holiday. Laicheng’s main plant has seen smoother shipments recently. Jiaodong has been selling at low prices, with smooth order signing and support from export orders. Post-holiday trends are expected to be strong. Current ex-factory prices: Jiangxi 98% smelting acid 460–480 RMB/ton; Shandong 98% ore acid 490–620 RMB/ton.
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate remains in a stalemate. Some manufacturers expect price increases, but are still in a game with downstream buyers. Sellers quote between 10,000–11,000 RMB/ton, while buyers quote between below 10,000–10,500 RMB/ton. This week, costs also remain in a stalemate. Compared to last week, major raw material prices are stable. Operating rates are generally improving. Downstream order demand is high, mainly driven by the energy storage market and partially by the power market. Leading manufacturers maintain high load rates. Some factories have paused for maintenance due to raw material issues. Manufacturers have a certain price-support mentality due to demand and cost, but downstream acceptance is average. The overall market remains in a game, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.
Lithium Iron Phosphate:
Lithium iron phosphate prices remain stable. Power-type lithium iron phosphate prices are negotiated between 33,200–36,200 RMB/ton, unchanged from last week. Energy storage-type lithium iron phosphate prices are negotiated between 32,200–34,150 RMB/ton, also unchanged. This week, lithium carbonate fundamentals have changed little, and spot prices remain stable. Iron phosphate prices are consolidating. Overall, lithium iron phosphate costs are stable. Driven by peak season, leading battery cell enterprises are increasing production. Currently, lithium iron phosphate enterprises maintain high operating rates under strong downstream power and energy storage demand. With the double holiday approaching, focus is on upstream inventory and downstream demand changes.
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market is steadily consolidating. With the holiday approaching, large adjustments are unlikely. In regions with abundant supply, there may be expectations of price cuts to promote sales. Overall, the market may stabilize with order shipments as the main focus.
Compound Fertilizer:
Sulfur continues to rise, increasing pricing difficulty for sulfur-based fertilizers. Some enterprises are implementing a ship-first, settle-later strategy. In North China, autumn fertilizer sales are wrapping up, and some are continuing to reduce inventory and ship goods. Case-by-case negotiations remain evident. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to be weak with regional wait-and-see sentiment.
India urea inventories approx 4.25 mil Mts
L1 early guess 410-415 cfr
https://fertilizerfield.com/namrup-iv-ammonia-urea-project/?no_cache=1
Morning. Int'l paper values weakening y'day – Nov AG traded back under $400, Nov Brazil framed either side of $410cfr. In Nola, nearby phys urea found sellers mid/upper-$370s, Q1 months continued to trade at a premium.
AG
Oct $390//$400
Nov $393//$402 – traded $403, $398s
Q4 $385//$405
Jan $375 Bid
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$425
Nov $405//$415 – traded 411
Dec $397//$410 – traded $407
Egypt
Oct $425//$448
Nov $412//$435
Dec $407 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Dec/Jan $168 Bid
Nola
Phys: Oct traded $375; Jan $380; Feb $390
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $370//$380
Dec $373//$380
Jan $380//$385
Feb $385//$393 – traded $391
Mar $395//$405
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$745
Q1 $685//$720
Oct MAP barge traded $700
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
Concerns about the fiscal outlook in Japan sent the yen to a more than seven month low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday and political uncertainty in France dented the euro, with traders also focused on any signs of when the U.S. federal government will reopen.
The yen has tumbled since Sanae Takaichi’s leadership victory in Japan on Saturday.
Takaichi, who is expected to become Japan's next prime minister, has pledged to boost the Japanese economy with aggressive spending and has been critical of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes.
"There's going to be a period of time where (investors) try and figure out how exactly her policies will affect the currency," said Lou Brien, strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
Money market traders are now pricing in a 26% chance that the BoJ will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting on October 30, down from around 60% before Takaichi's leadership victory.
Against the Japanese yen , the dollar was last up 1% to 151.86 and reached 151.93, the highest since February 19.
Still, some analysts said that the Bank of Japan is likely to continue hiking interest rates as it battles relatively high inflation.
"For this month, the BoJ will perhaps stay on hold just to be on the safe side but in December they'll get a bit more data and I think they'll deliver another hike," said Mohamad Al-Saraf, forex research associate at Danske Bank.
"Inflation is still too high, rates are still too low, and the case for another BoJ hike this year is still alive."
EURO ON THE BACK FOOT
The euro remained on a fragile footing following the resignation of France's prime minister on Monday, adding to pressure on President Emmanuel Macron and putting fiscal consolidation in doubt.
France is now likely to miss a deadline to present its 2026 budget bill, meaning lawmakers will need to pass emergency stopgap legislation to authorize spending from January 1 until a full budget is approved.
The single currency was last down 0.43% at $1.1659.
The dollar index rose 0.46% to 98.57.
The U.S. currency has weakened this year on concerns about a deteriorating fiscal outlook, expectations of slowing growth and fears that President Donald Trump's tariff policies will scare investors away from U.S. assets.
That move has paused since the end of June with the greenback largely consolidating against most major peers, said DRW's Brien.
Brien expects dollar weakness to resume, however, on a weakening labor market.
"The labor market here is weaker and will continue to be weaker than is generally appreciated. And not only will you get a likely very dovish Fed chair to replace (Jerome) Powell next year, but in between now and then I think Fed policy will probably be a little bit easier than is currently being priced in."
So far markets have largely shrugged off the government shutdown, however the longer it continues the more likely it will also hurt the greenback "because you'll get a weaker economic performance," Brien said.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his administration plans to eliminate a number of government programs as a result of the ongoing shutdown, adding that he would provide details of job cuts within the next four or five days.
The shutdown delayed last Friday's closely watched monthly jobs report for September and is set to postpone other key releases until the government reopens.
A New York Federal Reserve survey released on Tuesday found that Americans grew more worried about the future of the job market in September, while at the same time bumping up projections for the future path of near-term inflation.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Tuesday said that he is more sanguine about others about the outlook for inflation and said the U.S. bond market’s current relative calm supports a swift push to lower interest rates.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.51% to $120,8601 after reaching a record $126,223.18 on Monday.
Dangote Urea Project Kicks Off
On 5 October 2025, the Dangote Group officially launched construction of its $2.5 billion fertilizer complex in Gode, in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, in partnership with Ethiopian Investment Holdings. Mr Aliko Dangote personally led the groundbreaking ceremony, marking a key milestone and the operational launch of one of Ethiopia’s largest industrial projects. The complex is designed to transform Ethiopia into a regional fertilizer hub, capable of supplying domestic demand, wider Africa, and global markets.
The Gode complex will be built over a three-year period with a projected annual urea capacity of 3 million tonnes, sufficient to meet national demand, currently at 1.2 million tonnes and projected to reach up to 1.53 million tonnes by 2028 and create an exportable surplus. The project will draw on local natural-gas feedstock from Calub fields delivered through 100+ km pipeline, and includes ammonia, storage, and power facilities. Furthermore, The Ogaden Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Project, located in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, is projected to produce 111 million litres annually in its first phase, with capacity expected to rise to 1.33 billion litres per year in the second phase.
Dangote Group will hold a 60 % equity stake, while the Ethiopian government, via its sovereign vehicle Ethiopian Investment Holdings, retains 40 %.
Our Read
The project underscores Ethiopia’s drive to cut fertilizer import dependency and curb forex outflows tied to annual procurement. If commissioning stays on schedule, by 2028 Ethiopia could transition from importer to regional nitrogen exporter, reshaping East Africa’s trade flows. For global suppliers, the tender window is narrowing as domestic capacity builds, signalling a medium-term shift toward localized sourcing and regional supply integration.]:
Global Urea Market Update – Week 1 October📊
The global urea market gained fresh momentum following India’s major RCF tender announcement, sparking renewed buying interest and steady price recovery across key regions.
🇨🇳 China
Prilled urea is indicated at $380–390/t fob, and granular at $390–400/t fob.
No new offers have surfaced during the National Day holidays (1–8 Oct)
🇮🇳 India
India’s RCF tender issued on 1 Oct for 2mn t of prilled and granular urea has been the week’s main catalyst.
Cargoes must load by 10 Dec, with bids closing 15 Oct and valid until 30 Oct.
The Indian Meteorological Department expects above-normal rainfall, with seasonal precipitation 8% higher than the long-term mean — a positive signal for fertilizer consumption in Q4.
🌏 Southeast Asia
Prilled urea is assessed at $410–415/t cfr, and granular at $410–420/t cfr.
Buying interest remains muted as weak crop prices and affordability pressures limit farmer purchasing.
Regional fob prices slipped to $385–390/t, tracking a recent deal in Indonesia.
🇮🇩 Indonesia
Pusri, a Pupuk Indonesia subsidiary, sold 5,000t of prilled urea at $380/t fob in its 30 Sept tender — below target offers of $395/t and above.
🇮🇷 Iran
Granular urea prices are quoted at $360–370/t fob, slightly lower week-on-week.
Producers remain active with several tenders:
🔹Pardis closed a tender (30 Sept) to sell 30,000–60,000t for Oct shipment at a $370/t fob Assaluyeh target.
Offers for bulk and bagged urea are heard around $370–400/t fob, awaiting results post-RCF tender.
🇸🇦 Middle East (Excl. Iran)
Granular urea slipped early in the week to $385/t fob, before rebounding to $400–405/t fob after India’s tender boosted sentiment.
Producers are largely holding offers, preferring to wait for tender outcomes before concluding new spot deals.
🇪🇬 Egypt
Granular urea traded between $420–445/t fob, with over 80,000t sold for October shipment.
After the Indian tender, prices climbed to $435–445/t fob. Main destinations included Turkey, Romania, Ireland, and the UK.
🇳🇬 Nigeria
Dangote tendered 30,000t for 17–20 Oct loading at Lekki.
Recent sales were just above $400/t fob. Operations were unaffected by the short oil workers’ strike, now resolved.
🇷🇺 Baltic Region
Granular urea was stable at $380–393/t fob.
Brazil remains the key outlet, where firm demand supports the higher range. Prilled urea stayed at $375–385/t fob.
🌎Black Sea
Granular urea traded at $388–410/t fob, strengthening late in the week.
Offers rose to $415/t fob and above, reflecting Indian-driven optimism.
🇧🇷 Brazil
The market rebounded after India’s tender.
Granular urea rose to $430–440/t cfr, up from $420–425/t early in the week.
Sellers are holding back for clearer direction as sentiment turns bullish
📊 Market Outlook
India’s tender has stabilized sentiment across global markets.
Prices are likely to remain firm in the short term as suppliers await tender outcomes and Q4 demand clarity.
https://fertilizerfield.com/india-urea-self-sufficiency-2025/?no_cache=1
Morning. Int'l paper saw Nov AG trade $5 up from Fri at $405 in otherwise quiet activity. In Nola, Jan Phys traded $383, Feb paper $392. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $395//$408
Nov $397//$408 – traded $405
Q4 $395//$410
Jan $375 Bid (1k)
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$427
Nov $410//$416
Dec $402//$415
Egypt
Oct $430//$448
Nov $420//$440
Dec $415 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Nov $168//$180
Dec/Jan $168 Bid
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $383
Paper:
Oct $380//$385
Nov $370//$380
Dec $373//$382
Jan $380//$387
Feb $385//$395 – traded $392
Mar $395//$410
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$745
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures eased on Monday on a rapidly advancing U.S. harvest, brisk early planting in rival exporter Brazil and a lack of demand from China for U.S. shipments, analysts said.
CBOT November soybeans settled 1/4 cent lower to end at $10.17-3/4 per bushel. The contract hit overhead technical resistance at its 20- and 50-day moving averages.
CBOT December soymeal was $1.50 lower at $277.10 per short ton while December soyoil gained 0.33 cent to end at 50.38 cents per pound.
Recent dry weather allowed U.S. farmers to accelerate harvesting of what is forecast to be a bumper soybean crop.
The U.S. soybean harvest was estimated to be 39% finished as of Sunday, according to an average of nine analysts polled by Reuters. The U.S. Department of Agriculture normally releases its weekly crop progress estimate on Monday afternoon, but the report will not be issued due to the government shutdown.
The USDA said on Monday that 768,117 metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export in the week ended October 2, near the high end of trade estimates for 600,000 to 800,000 tons.
Brazil's soybean planting for the 2025/26 season reached 9% of the expected area as of last Thursday, marking the second-highest level for the date, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday.
Brazil exported 7.34 million metric tons of soybeans in September, up from 6.11 million tons in the same month last year, according to government data released on Monday.
Traders are awaiting an update on U.S. government aid to soy farmers hurt by the trade war with China on Tuesday and an upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping at the end of the month.
Trump said in a social media post last week that soybeans would be a major topic of discussion when he meets his Chinese counterpart in four weeks.
apparently EU might not release the reference CO2 values for EU producers until the end of Q1 2026. If you don’t know the reference values how can you calculate your CO2 import tax liability. more cray BS
LONDON (ICIS)—Not a lot to report on urea. Indonesian prills concluded at $385/tonne FOB late last week while Nigeria sold granular urea around 400 FOB. Iranian granular offers 367-370 FOB.