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China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association Document
China Nitrogen Fertilizer Association Issuance (2025) No. 077
Notice on Convening the “2025 National Autumn Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Situation Analysis Meeting”
To relevant units:
Since the second half of 2025, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer raw materials and production enterprises has continued to decline, industrial demand has decreased, the contradiction between supply and demand in the nitrogen fertilizer market has intensified, and prices have continued to fall. In order to comprehensively analyze the current nitrogen fertilizer market situation and assess future development trends, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has decided to convene the National Autumn Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Situation Analysis Meeting in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, from October 29 to 31, 2025. Relevant units are welcome to actively send representatives to attend.
China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association Secretariat
2. Meeting Content
(1) Reports by Leaders and Experts from Relevant National Departments
1. Invite leaders and experts from relevant departments to speak on policies related to supply, demand, and pricing in the fertilizer industry.
2. Invite leaders and experts from relevant departments to speak on the national vision and policies for safe fertilizers during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
(2) Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Analysis
1. Operational status and market conditions of nitrogen fertilizer production from January to September 2025.
2. Analysis of the nitrogen fertilizer market situation for the entire year of 2025 and outlook for 2026.
3. Analysis of the urea market situation for the entire year of 2025.
4. Analysis of the liquid ammonia market situation for the entire year of 2025.
5. Market situation and development trends of China’s nitrogen fertilizer industry in 2025.
6. Analysis of China’s nitrogen fertilizer import and export situation in 2025.
7. Analysis of the operational status of China’s nitrogen fertilizer industry in 2025.
8. Analysis of development trends in China’s nitrogen fertilizer industry in 2025.
9. Existing problems and suggestions for China’s nitrogen fertilizer industry in 2025.
(3) Nitrogen Fertilizer Raw Material Analysis
1. Development progress and trends of coal-based raw materials.
2. Development progress and trends of natural gas-based raw materials.
3. Development progress and trends of other raw materials.
(4) Urea Futures Analysis
Sharing of case studies on how raw materials drive futures, and integration of spot and futures markets.
(5) Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Exchange
1. Sales managers from nitrogen fertilizer production enterprises, trading companies, and end-user enterprises.
2. Procurement managers from nitrogen fertilizer production enterprises, trading companies, and end-user enterprises; large-scale growers. <This message was edited>
𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 — 𝗔 𝗣𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗴𝘆𝗽𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮
India has maintained steady phosphate rock imports through the first half of 2025, reaching nearly 8.0mn tonnes by August. This sustained demand — especially ahead of the upcoming agricultural seasons — presents a tangible opportunity for suppliers of mid grade rock (~30% P₂O₅), particularly Egypt and Syria.
🔹 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱:
Phosphate rock imports for Jan–Aug ≈ 8mn t, with institutional buyers such as RCF, IFFCO, and NFL remaining active through tenders.
A recent example: RCF’s tender for two 35,000t lots of 29% P₂O₅ received bids in the range of US$112–118.95/t CFR, underscoring buyers’ appetite for cost-effective feedstock.
🔹 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗘𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗴𝘆𝗽𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮:
Egypt: Red Sea shipments benefit from low freight costs (~US$24–26/t) and growing supply to Southeast Asia and India. Egyptian rock (26–30% P₂O₅) can effectively land in India at ~US$112–120/t CFR, offering a cost advantage.
Syria: Offers of ~US$105–110/t FOB for ~30% rock are now emerging. With freight added, these shipments remain competitive under current market conditions. The Tartous port is gradually restoring structured export operations, with recent cargoes bound for Europe and Asia.
🔹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗙𝗶𝘁:
Rock with 26–30% P₂O₅ remains ideal for SSP and NPK production, and in some blended DAP manufacturing lines. Indian buyers — focused on margin preservation and cost optimization — show increasing openness to such grades, provided that quality and analysis are certified.
✅ The takeaway: as India looks to diversify its sourcing beyond Morocco and Jordan, Egyptian and Syrian rock suppliers have a real commercial window — built on proximity, price competitiveness, and evolving logistics efficiency through the Red Sea corridor.
Apparently a big scandal in Ethiopia with several guys arrested
Morning. RCF tender to close this week, and China's export stance for the rest of year still uncertain. Int'l paper largely range-bound last week, as further signals awaited, w/ activity focusing on Nov AG & cfr Brazil. Mkts framed Fri close:
AG
Oct $388//$398
Nov $398//$405 – traded $399, $400 Fri
_[Nov traded 405-$398 range last week]_
Dec $385//$400
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$428
Nov $410//$413 – traded $413 Fri
_[Nov traded $411-$413 range l/w]_
Dec $400//$410
_[Dec traded $407 l/w]_
Egypt
Oct $430//$445
Nov $415//$430
Dec $410 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Dec/Jan $170 Bid
Nola
Phys: Oct traded $375. Mar $398
_[Oct traded range $370-$375]_
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $370//$380
Dec $370//$380
Jan $380//$390
_[Jan traded range $383-$385]_
Feb $390//$400
_[Feb traded $391/397.5]_
Mar $395//$405 – traded $400
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Oct $755//770
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
China Morning Report 13th Oct 2025
Rock Phosphate:
Prices in major domestic phosphate rock production areas showed narrow fluctuations. Due to persistently high raw material prices and weak downstream demand, phosphate fertilizer enterprises lacked production momentum. Some factories chose to reduce operating loads or shut down for maintenance, maintaining a strategy of purchasing phosphate rock only as needed.
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Last week, the domestic MAP market remained weak. New orders saw sluggish trading sentiment, and some low-end prices emerged, dampening market morale. However, due to a sharp rise in sulfur prices and a follow-up increase in sulfuric acid, costs continued to rise. Some facilities reduced operating loads, and the short-term trend may stabilize with a wait-and-see attitude.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
Last week, the domestic DAP market was notably quiet. Raw material prices continued to rise, further increasing cost pressures. Enterprises focused on shipping previously placed orders. Continuous rainy weather hindered terminal demand release, resulting in sparse market transactions. The market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term.
Industrial-grade MAP:
Last week, the industrial-grade MAP market remained in a stalemate. The mainstream market average price for 73% industrial-grade MAP was around ¥5,700/ton, with actual negotiations conducted case-by-case. Rising raw material prices pressured production, and some factories suspended order intake. Downstream agricultural demand in Xinjiang gradually started, increasing inquiries, but end-users remained cautious. The short-term industrial MAP market is expected to consolidate, with future trends depending on downstream demand and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
After the holiday, the yellow phosphorus market came under downward pressure. Post-holiday, enterprises had ample spot supply and high inventory pressure. Sellers’ sentiment was unstable, and quotations gradually declined. Downstream demand remained weak with no clear support in the short term. Bearish sentiment was strong, with buyers probing for low prices. Prices are expected to remain weak this week. Last week, net phosphorus ex-factory settlement prices in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan were around ¥21,600–21,800/ton, with actual transactions negotiated individually.
Phosphoric Acid:
Last week, the thermal phosphoric acid market continued its weak trend due to cost pressures. The purified wet-process phosphoric acid market saw a tug-of-war between local maintenance and new capacity release. Post-holiday, mainstream factories focused on fulfilling previous orders, and quotations remained firm. Industry players are closely watching the actual commissioning pace of new capacity and downstream new energy enterprise orders. In South China, thermal phosphoric acid net water ex-factory prices were around ¥6,600–6,700/ton; in Jiangsu, net water delivered prices were around ¥6,700–6,800/ton, with actual deals negotiated by volume.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP):
Last week, the DCP market operated on a stronger note, with increasing cost support. Downstream enterprises concentrated on signing procurement contracts. Currently, the delivery cycle for DCP manufacturers has extended to about one month. Enterprises are clearly inclined to hold prices firm, and quotations remain high.
• Yunnan trade market mainstream price: ¥3,050/ton
• Sichuan: ¥3,150–3,180/ton
• Hubei: ¥3,300–3,310/ton
• Yunnan mono/dicalcium market: ¥4,230–4,240/ton
• Guizhou mono/dicalcium: ¥4,300/ton
• Yunnan dihydrogen calcium: ¥4,650–4,660/ton
• Guizhou dihydrogen calcium: ¥4,730–4,750/ton
Pesticides (Glyphosate):
The glyphosate market showed a stable-to-strong trend. Mainstream transaction prices remained high. Recently, overseas formulation orders increased, boosting operational expectations. Reference price for 95% glyphosate technical: ¥27,500–28,300/ton, with actual deals negotiated case-by-case.
Sulfur:
Last week, the domestic sulfur spot market rose sharply. As of October 11, mainstream granular prices at Yangtze River ports climbed to ¥2,930/ton, stable compared to the previous working day but up 7.32% from pre-holiday levels. During the double holiday, rumors of $390–400/ton prices circulated in other international markets. Most mainstream resources were difficult to import into China, boosting pre-holiday bullish sentiment among holders. On the first working day after the holiday, bullish sentiment surged, low-priced goods were scarce, and both buyers and sellers were highly active, pushing prices to the highest point of the year. Domestic sulfur resources rose across the board.
• Shandong liquid market: narrow high-level rise, active downstream inquiries
• Northwest market: driven by port sentiment, auction prices rose for consecutive days to ¥2,530/ton
Today’s focus: spot market trading activity
Sulfuric Acid:
Last week, sulfuric acid prices rose in many regions. Post-holiday, sulfur prices rose sharply, providing rigid cost support. In October, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Shandong regions have maintenance plans, leading to supply reduction expectations. Last week, acid prices were raised in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan, Yunnan, and Hubei. In this active market atmosphere, the short-term sulfuric acid market is expected to trend stronger.
• Yunnan: 98% smelting acid delivered price: ¥660–690/ton
• Shandong: 98% ore acid ex-factory price: ¥520–620/ton
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices remained flat, with continued upstream-downstream bargaining. Sellers’ quotations ranged from ¥10,000–11,000/ton, while buyers’ bids varied from below ¥10,000 to ¥10,500/ton.
Production: Driven by terminal market demand, iron phosphate production hit new highs. Mainstream manufacturers maintained high operating loads, while a few temporarily shut down due to raw material fluctuations.
Demand: Focused on energy storage and heavy truck orders, with downstream product iteration. The iron-based process is expected to gain a larger share in the future.
Prices: Upstream prices were stable before the holiday, with expectations of a slight post-holiday increase. Overall, bargaining continues, and cost pressure remains.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):
LFP market prices remained stable. Lithium carbonate prices had solid bottom support and spot prices were steady. Iron phosphate prices were in a consolidation phase. Overall, LFP cost fluctuations were minimal. Leading LFP enterprises maintained high operating rates. Battery cell companies increased production driven by energy storage and peak season demand. Downstream leading battery cell enterprises were at full capacity with sufficient orders and growing overseas demand.
• Power-type LFP transaction price: ¥33,200–36,200/ton
• Energy storage-type LFP: ¥32,200–34,150/ton
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market showed mixed supply-demand dynamics. Amid recent price hikes, demand showed no significant improvement. Market sentiment was cautious. High-price orders shifted to average levels, and market dynamics were competitive. High prices may face downward pressure, with most regions in consolidation.
Compound Fertilizer:
Last week, the compound fertilizer market fluctuated downward by ¥20–80/ton. Current reference for 45%S (3*15/14:15:16) mainstream ex-factory price: ¥2,800–2,950/ton, with some transactions leaning toward the low end. In the short term, falling raw material prices weaken cost support. Downstream distributors showed low enthusiasm. Attention is on autumn harvest and sowing progress. Enterprises actively cleared inventory to promote restocking. The compound fertilizer market continues weak consolidation.
Hydrogen Peroxide:
The day before yesterday, the northern hydrogen peroxide market remained stable, with slight local increases. Supply was generally stable, and water companies’ inventories were not under pressure. Orders provided decent support, and bullish sentiment was strong. In Anhui, supply-side facilities operated steadily, and water companies faced no pressure. Prices held firm and rose. The main production areas in the north and south are expected to continue stable operations.
Early Morning Analysis:
Last week, the domestic urea market experienced downward pressure as the supply side maintained a high level while the demand side remained weak. The imbalance between supply and demand made it difficult to change the situation. The export situation was unclear, and market participants were largely bearish. New orders were not sufficient, and after the Double 11 holiday, prices even approached the low point of the year and set a new record low. If no significant stimulating factors emerge, the market may continue its downward consolidation trend.
Aussies – ferts mainly priced on formula for customers now, landed priced based on FOB, 3 weeks.
Little spot
Wengfu/koch specifically
#Fertilizers is super important to Europe, not only as a crop nutrient that greatly enhances food production, but also as a cornerstone to the continent’s economy. The estimation market value is US$43.4 billion in 2024.1 Unfortunately, the sector has been facing major challenges for several years, with far-reaching consequences. [World Fertilizer, Gordon Cope, Contributing Editor]
Till 2021, the EU produced approximately 13 million tpy of nitrogen fertilizers, 2.9 million tpy of potash, and 2.2 million tpy of phosphate products, while consuming 11.2 million tpy of nitrogen, 2.6 million tpy of potash, and 2.6 million tpy of phosphates. The numbers look fairly well balanced on paper, but regional demand and other economic factors, such as transportation costs and blending, result in extensive imports; around 8 million tpy of fertilizers were sourced from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.
#Potash
After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, the EU exempted food and fertilizer from its wartime sanctions, but payment restrictions complicated the movement of fertilizers from Belarus and Russia, both major potash exporters to Europe.
Canada helped significantly to stabilise supply shortages, but long-term solutions (especially the development of domestic sources), are needed. The EU has limited expansion potential for mining. Germany accounts for about 87% of EU production and the rest comes from Spain. Economic deposits in Germany are depleting and total ore production now stands at approximately 3.3 million tpy. The closest prospect for new production is the proposed Muga-Vipasca mine in Northern Spain. Highfield Resources estimates capital costs at €735 million; the mine has sufficient reserves to produce 1 million tpy of muriate of potash (MOP) for 30 years. Opponents to the project cite water concerns in the arid climate. Preliminary earthmoving is underway, but no production date has been set.
In the UK, Anglo American’s 13 million tpy Woodsmith polyhalite project in the Yorkshire region faces further delays. The underground mine involves digging 1.6 km deep mine shafts and a 37 km tunnel to transport raw material to the port of Teesside. The rock will then be milled into sulfate of potash-magnesia (SOPM) for export around the world. In May, 2024, Australian mining giant BHP offered £38.6 billion for the firm. During protracted negotiations, Anglo American reduced capital expenditures on the project and put much of the existing infrastructure into maintenance mode. The offer was eventually rejected by the board, but the slowdown has pushed the ultimate production date beyond 2027.
An undeniably important development was the introduction of special tariffs on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. Ammonia and potash still have a window for imports, but all indications are that this will soon be closed by the European Union
Galvani Fertilizantes takes over The Mosaic Company 's unit in Minas Gerais for US$ 125 million
Phosphates Center reactivates Patos de Minas mine and expands fertilizer supply for Cerrado agribusiness
The Mosaic Company – Brasil has completed the sale of its phosphate operation in Patos de Minas (MG) to Fosfatados Centro, a company of the group led by Rodolfo Galvani Júnior, founder of Galvani Fertilizantes. Valued at US$ 125 million, the transaction includes the payment of US$ 111 million in cash – US$ 51 million at closing and the rest in installments over four years – and the transfer of responsibility for the mine and tailings dams.
The conclusion of the deal marks a new chapter for the unit, which was idle and will now be reactivated to meet the growing demand for phosphate fertilizers in Brazilian agribusiness. Fosfatados Centro plans to resume production with a focus on supplying the Cerrado in the Midwest, following the successful operating model in Matopiba — a region that covers part of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia.
For Mosaic, the sale is part of the global strategy of portfolio optimization and reallocation of resources to areas of higher return. The company estimates to record an accounting gain of between US$ 80 and 90 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the executive vice president of operations, Karen Swager, the move "makes Mosaic more agile and competitive, while reinforcing the company's role in transforming the sector".
Galvani Júnior highlighted that the agreement "is an important advance to strengthen the National Fertilizer Plan and guarantee productive autonomy to Brazil".
Phosphate Rock Market: Stable Prices, but a Possible Scenario Ahead
In recent weeks, the global phosphate rock market has shown relative stability:
Morocco (FOB 68–72% BPL): $153–268/t, unchanged from last month.
Egypt (FOB 60–68% BPL): $60–110/t, still within the same range.
Algeria (FOB 63–66% BPL): $95–115/t, no change.
At first glance, this stability might suggest a balance between supply and demand. But is the market truly at equilibrium?
Likely Scenario: A Winter Demand Surge from China
China traditionally halts production at some of its domestic phosphate rock mines during the winter months. If this happens in Q4 2025:
1. Chinese import demand will rise → pushing buyers towards Egyptian and Jordanian supplies.
2. Pressure on Southeast Asia → markets like Indonesia and Malaysia, which recently relied heavily on Egyptian rock, could face tighter availability.
3. CFR prices in the region may climb → widening the price gap between India and Southeast Asia.
✅ Bottom line: today’s price stability may simply be a pause. If China re-enters the market aggressively, a new upward price cycle could quickly emerge.
Petrobras is putting $7 million into repairs and recommissioning for each of the two northeastern facilities, backed by a five-year operations and maintenance contract worth $189 million with industrial services firm Engeman.
🔸Capacity projections are substantial:
🔹Bahia (FAFEN-BA): 1,300t of urea per day
🔹Sergipe (FAFEN-SE): 1,800t of urea per day
🔹Paraná (ANSA): 1,900t of urea per day (planned)
https://view.argusmedia.com/rs/584-BUW-606/images/GEN-Insight-Paper-India-H2-Ammonia.pdf?version=0
Morning. Int'l paper values sideways with activity on Nov AG again in upper-$390s y'day, and Nov Brazil trading at last done level $411cfr. In Nola, paper activity seen in Q1 months, with Feb/Mar at a premium to Jan. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $390//$400
Nov $398//$400 – traded $399s
Dec $385//$400
Jan $375//$400
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$427
Nov $410//$412 – traded $411
Dec $400//$410
Egypt
Oct $425//$445
Nov $415//$430
Dec $410 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Dec/Jan $168 Bid
Nola
Phys: Nov traded $375. Mar $400
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $370//$380
Dec $370//$380
Jan $380//$390 – traded $385
Feb $390//$398 – traded $397.50
Mar $395//$403 – traded $397.50
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$745
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
Russian Fertilizers Make History, Shattering Records
🔹 With exports reaching more than a hundred countries, Russia has become a global agricultural powerhouse — feeding the world and helping save harvests.
🔹 The Russian fertilizer industry is preparing for a new milestone in 2025, forecasting a historic record in both production and exports of these vital agricultural inputs. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev announced on Monday that the country’s fertilizer output will exceed 65 million tons this year.
🔹 Fertilizer production continues to grow. By the end of the year, total output should surpass 65 million tons. In other words, we are fully supplied with these products, while new investment projects are also underway,” Patrushev stated during his meeting with President Vladimir Putin.
🔸 According to the deputy prime minister, “around 70%” of Russia’s fertilizer production is currently destined for export. The Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAPU) projects that in 2025, exports of mineral fertilizers will reach 44 million tons, further solidifying Russia’s position as a global leader in the industry.
🔹 Last year, Russia exported 42 million tons of fertilizers, RAPU data shows. With the current outlook, the country is reaffirming its status as the world’s leading fertilizer exporter — second only to China in total production volume.
🔹 Beyond signaling a new all-time high for national output, this year’s figures underscore Russia’s growing influence in global markets. The country continues to play a pivotal role in global food security, supplying farmers in over one hundred countries with the essential nutrients needed to optimize their yields.
🔹 Andrey Guriev, head of RAPU, highlighted a positive trend in exports in early September, noting that shipments to India, China, and Latin America have already grown by 20% year-on-year. He emphasized that Russian fertilizers are now largely directed toward BRICS nations and the Global South.
🔹 We have already supplied around 2.5 million tons to India, and we expect to reach 5 million tons by the end of the year — absolutely record-breaking figures. The same applies to China, where the numbers are roughly equivalent,” Guriev said.
🔸 According to Guriev’s estimates, Russia’s share of the global fertilizer market stands at 18%. He also noted that since 2013, Russian producers have increased exports by 60% by 2024, primarily thanks to expanded deliveries to friendly nations.
🔹 This achievement — part of a string of consecutive records — is not a matter of luck but the result of years of strategic investment and development. Russia’s dominance in the global fertilizer market not only strengthens its economy and provides a major revenue stream for domestic producers but also has a direct positive impact on agricultural productivity worldwide
-UREA MARKETS ARE WAITING FOR THE INDIA TENDER FOR DIRECTION ON PRICES
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATES PRICES UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO AFFORDABILITY
-POTASH PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A DOWNWARD PRESSURE
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE FIRM AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEAR FUTURE
UREA
The urea market is rather subdued on the demand side with little or no spot activity in major destination markets. Both Australia and Thailand are at the very tail end of the import season. Europe, Brazil and the US markets are quiet. It appears that the market is waiting for the closure of the India 2 million MT urea tender on the 15th of October for price guidance.
Iranian MIS sold 2×30 KT at 365 PMT FOB with the official price set at USD 367 PMT FOB, October and November liftings, respectively. Pardis has sold 3×30 KT at USD 370 PMT FOB. Dangote of Nigeria has sold one 30 KT parcel at USD 400 PMT which is a tad lower than their 2×30 KT 1st half October shipment sale. Pupuk Indonesia granular urea tender resulted in the highest bid at USD 393.33 PMT FOB which is around USD 8 PMT higher than the last rumoured sale in the region. However, the last Pupuk sale was at USD 412.50 PMT FOB a few weeks ago. Egyptian producers are struggling to sell and one producer offered granular urea at USD 447 PMT with no takers. Middle East producers are in no mood to engage being busy supplying the previous India tender and looking towards the next India tender.
Eyes are also on the Chinese situation where it is possible that a 4th quota could be released after the conclusion of the mid autumn festival. Estimates are that there is around 250,000 MT left from the 3rd quota. Current prices are said to be between USD 390-410 PMT FOB, the latter reflecting granular urea. CIQ applications have to be in before the 15th of October for November and December shipment.
On the demand side, EABAC of Ethiopia is on and off on their tenders with the 3rd tender scrapped within just a few days, the last one for 450 KT granular urea.
Canada imported 790 KT granular urea during the January-August period with 246 KT coming from the US. Brazil urea imports for the January to September period was 4.5 million MT, down 16% or 829 KT year on year. Nigeria supplied 1.06 million MT whilst Qatar at 661 KT. Affordability is a big issue in Brazil, and a substantial substitution is taking place with Ammonium Sulphate taking the lead vs urea.
Question now is what will happen to the urea price in the intermittent period? As previously referenced, India cannot carry the market alone – and we saw this with urea prices falling a few days after the announcement of the 2 million MT tender. It appears likely that the L1 price in India will be above USD 400 PMT CFR – possibly closer to USD 410 PMT CFR.
On a side note of interest – the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations via Our World in Data has published the following excerpt:
China’s use of agricultural fertilizers peaked more than a decade ago, thanks to the rise in precision agriculture and a change in government subsidies. Our World In Data noted that while China’s population has doubled since the 1960s, its food production per capita has increased in that time. Fertilizers played a key role, but subsidies led to their overuse, with considerable environmental impacts. In 2015, the government reduced those subsidies, and instead incentivized precision agriculture, machinery, and education, making farms much more efficient. Europe saw a similar curve – its fertilizer use per hectare has halved since 1990. Global use may have peaked in 2020 even as available calories per capita worldwide continue to increase.
PHOSPHATES
Further declines were registered on a range of DAP and MAP price benchmarks this week as a slowdown in demand offset persistently tight availability, though prices remain high compared with historical levels and phosphates remain expensive relative to downstream agricultural commodities and other fertilizer nutrients. Producers in China with tonnes to sell are indicating flexibility on offers, as international prices are far more attractive than those achievable in the domestic market and sellers want to achieve some margins before the export window closes again until at least Q2 next year. The spot FOB assessment for DAP declined slightly this week, and again many sources pegged prices lower than the published range. The overall DAP volume available for export from China is only around 300,000 t, according to several sources, but sellers are struggling to find the best outlets. The key India DAP spot benchmark declined further $771-778/t CFR from $778-790/t, with some indications even lower, though reports of lower offers and even deals could not be confirmed. Arrivals remain strong, stocks have increased, and buyers are reluctant to commit to fresh purchases in a softening market, especially as the DoF is yet to confirm subsidy rate for the coming Rabi season. The assessment had been stable at $810/t CFR flat for three weeks before starting to decline six weeks ago. It is still up from $632-634/t CFR at the end of February and $690-700/t CFR at the start of May. MAP was even weaker than DAP, with an unusually steep discount on the former to the latter persisting given a lack of import demand in key markets such as Brazil and the US. Spot prices for MAP sales to Brazil were assessed down at $690-710/t CFR from $710-720/t based on latest reported offers, though these prices appeared unable to stimulate fresh spot purchases of imports, with domestic sales at lower equivalent prices. The assessment has declined from a peak of $760/t CFR during the first three weeks of July, which represented the highest level since September 2022. The price had increased from $640/t CFR in mid-March this year. Buyers in Brazil are comfortable with P2O5 despite limited MAP availability due to purchases of alternative phosphate sources. MAP imports for January-September decreased 22% year on year to 2.58 Mt, according to data via Global Trade Tracker, but imports of SSP increased 17% to 3.42 Mt, imports of TSP were up 17% at 1.53 Mt, and imports of NPs climbed 51% to 3.07 Mt.
Prices are expected to continue declining through Q4 as buyer resistance to high prices grows across the globe, with buyers less desperate than earlier in the year. Still, prices are likely to remain historically high given limited overall global availability.
POTASH
Potash prices remained steady this week, with Brazil showing signs of renewed softness after a period of stability, while the IFA Crossroads conference boosted seller sentiment in Southeast Asia. At the IFA Crossroads conference in Bangkok, sentiment among Southeast Asian potash market participants improved, supported by strong palm oil prices and expectations of ongoing market stabilisation. The market remains cautious, with firm demand possibly beginning to impact supply. Despite the more positive tone, standard MOP prices held steady at $360–390/t CFR, with the $390/t CFR level reportedly becoming difficult to achieve. Most market players expect prices to remain stable in the near term. Potash prices in Brazil held at $350–360/t CFR, with the $360/t benchmark under pressure and less attainable. Producers continue to offer at $360/t CFR, often with commercial terms like extended payment or financing options that can lower the effective price. They are also reportedly open to negotiations despite the initial $360/t CFR offer. Demand remains slow, with little urgency for MOP purchases.
Potash prices are forecast to face steady downward pressure over the next year as soft demand and ample supply limit gains. Downside risk remains if further demand drops, especially if falling crop prices reduce farmers’ affordability, potentially triggering sharper price declines.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia prices extended gains this week albeit at a slower pace. New spot sales were reported from Algeria and China along with a small reload from storage in South Korea. Supply remains tight with an extended outage at Ma’aden’s MPC 1.1 Mt/year unit expected to last into December and possibly beyond, while natural-gas curtailments are expected in the coming weeks in Trinidad. Middle East suppliers are focusing on meeting contractual demand, while buyers in northwest Europe are currently unwilling to step up and pay in line with the latest export values from Algeria at $600/t FOB. Export values from Algeria are now the highest since CRU began the assessment in February 2024. The benchmark has advanced as much as 58%, or $220/t, from a low this year of $380/t FOB in June. A potential cargo from Egypt, the first in almost a year, is also in doubt as Abu Qir has resumed UAN production and is now weighing its options. No tender has yet emerged from Gemlik in Turkey, expected in the second half of the month. Prices in India have also moved higher, with that market now assessed at $400-430/t CFR for spot and contract tonnes. Far East contract has also edged up.
In the near-term prices are expected to remain firm and push higher to do a dearth of spot availability.