The U.S. dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday with market sentiment weakened by the continuing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Traders analyzed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for cues on upcoming rate cuts amid a U.S. government shutdown, which has hampered the timely release of key data.
The dollar weakened 0.39% to 151.24 against the Japanese yen and was down 0.49% to 0.797 against the Swiss franc , on track for the second straight session of losses against both safe-haven currencies.
Top U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, blasted China's major expansion of rare earths export controls as a threat to global supply chains. Greer described China's export controls as a complete repudiation of U.S.-Chinese trade agreements over the past six months although he and Bessent stressed that Washington did not want to escalate the conflict. President Donald Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on China last week in retaliation. The Chinese commerce ministry defended the rare-earths controls, pointing to a series of U.S. measures on Chinese goods and companies and calling it hypocritical. "The market is showing an impressive ability to shrug off trade-related headlines and there's a firm belief that the U.S. and China will find a way to move forward and will make an agreement," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "The headlines continued to be inflammatory, including today from Bessent and Greer. But the market saw how Trump quickly de-escalated over the weekend and doesn't yet believe he wants a real fight." The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.32% to 98.72, on track for the second consecutive session of losses. The Fed's Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity was little changed and employment was largely stable in recent weeks, although there were emerging signs of weakness including more layoffs and middle- and lower-income households pulling back on spending.
Powell, in a speech on Tuesday, left the door open to rate cuts by saying the U.S. labor market remained mired in low-hiring, low-firing doldrums. He said the absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown has not prevented policymakers from being able to assess the economic outlook, at least for now. Markets are currently priced for a quarter-point cut at the October 28-29 Fed gathering and another at the following meeting in December, followed by three more cuts next year, according to LSEG data. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.6 basis points to 4.038%. Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher as companies continued to report strong results as the quarterly earnings season kicked off.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 rose 0.40% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.66%. The euro rose 0.35% to $1.1646 after gaining 0.3% in the previous session, supported by the French government's proposal to suspend landmark pension reforms.
"Even if the French political upheaval has started to moderate, outright bullish catalysts are lacking for the euro at this stage," TS Lombard analysts led by Daniel von Ahlen wrote in an investor note. "Meanwhile, the recent performance of the EUR/USD is now on par with the past rallies following maor policy announcements in the euro area, which adds to our tactical caution on the common currency." The New Zealand dollar edged up only 0.1% to $0.5721, after dipping to a six-month low of $0.56839 on Tuesday. The Aussie climbed 0.39% to $0.651, after falling 0.5% a day earlier, when it touched the lowest since August 22 at $0.64405.
Morning. Urea paper values trended lower y'day after RCF tender close – Technical offers opened/volumes offered announced, but official price discovery still awaited. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $395//$403
Nov $397//$400
Dec $387//$400
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$428
Nov $403 //$409 – traded $410, $409
Dec $395//$410
Egypt
Oct $427//$440
Nov $417//$430
Dec $410 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $180//$185
Nov $182//$186 – traded $184
Nola
Phys: – Feb traded $388-390
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $381//$388
Dec $380//$387
Jan $383//$395
Feb $391//$400
Mar $395//$410
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Oct $755//$770
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$685
Nov $650//$670
(Fertilizer Industry China Morning Brief) dated 2025-10-16
❤ Urea:
Yesterday, the domestic urea market was mainly stable. The trading atmosphere weakened somewhat. Coinciding with India’s tender and the yet-to-be-clarified follow-up export policy, the urea market may temporarily remain in a stalemate and wait-and-see mode, with some individual quotations being raised.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market saw improved low-level order-taking. Localized maintenance and production cuts improved the trading atmosphere. There is little willingness in the market to lower prices. In the short term, the market may mainly consolidate and focus on shipments. In areas without pressure to ship, there is potential for a rebound. Regionalized operations are evident.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market continued to follow at low levels. With no shipping pressure from factories, offers were firm and rising. However, as prices increase, market caution is also rising. Currently, there is no significant positive stimulus from domestic or international urea, and the short-term market is expected to mainly digest the recent price increases.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated at low levels. Continuous rainy weather in the north is unfavorable for wheat fertilizer application. Compound fertilizer sales remain slow. Under low-load operations, procurement of ammonium chloride is limited. Ammonium chloride enterprises are receiving few orders, inventories are relatively high, and short-term demand is unlikely to improve. The ammonium chloride market continues to be weak.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market was mainly stable. In the short term, the supply-demand fundamentals are temporarily limited. The trading atmosphere in the market showed no major fluctuations. Operators remain cautious. The market is expected to remain stable for now, with attention on guidance from other news sources.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market trend has tended toward stability. Potassium chloride traders’ quotations are gradually firming. Previously low-priced sources have mostly returned to normal levels. Inquiry activity among traders has increased, and transactions are mostly negotiated case-by-case. Meanwhile, the potassium sulfate market still faces difficulties in shipments. Manufacturers are under significant sales pressure, and transaction prices in the market remain somewhat negotiable.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Recently, with the rise in raw material prices for sulfur and sulfuric acid, costs continue to be pressured. Low-end sources of monoammonium phosphate have disappeared. The market inquiry atmosphere has improved somewhat, with some orders following up. The low-end price focus has shifted upward. Hubei 55 powder is quoted at around 3300 yuan/ton ex-factory, with actual negotiations ongoing. Continued attention is needed on changes in downstream demand. In the short term, the market is running in a consolidation mode.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market showed a sluggish trend. Raw material prices continued to rise, and production costs remain under pressure. Enterprises continue to fulfill previously scheduled orders. Terminal demand is releasing slowly, with limited follow-up on actual orders. The market trading atmosphere is relatively light, and in the short term, the market remains in a consolidation and wait-and-see state.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the compound fertilizer market operated in a narrow consolidation range. With the rise in sulfur and sulfuric acid prices driving up sulfur-based costs, some low-end prices have suspended collection, increasing by 30–50 yuan/ton. Downstream distributors are still able to accept previously low-priced orders. However, seasonal fertilizer is currently in its final phase, and market sentiment appears slightly flat. Attention is focused on the progress of autumn harvest and sowing. In the short term, compound fertilizer is expected to maintain a temporarily stable trend.
Trammo are back! (Poti material)
Morning. Prior to RCF tender close, and after phys sales reported at $410 in the region, AG paper saw improved bid interest y'day, and Nov traded $405 (+$5 from last done Fri). All eyes on India, but details likely to be drip-fed. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $395//$405
Nov $405//$410 -traded $405
Dec $390//$405
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$428
Nov $413//$416
Dec $400//$411
Egypt
Oct $427//$440
Nov $415//$430
Dec $410 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $180//$185
Nov $182//$188
Nola
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $381//$388 – traded $382
Dec $373//$385
Jan $383//$395
Feb $390//$400
Mar $395//$405
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Oct $755//770
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$690
Nov $650//$675
Stock market analysis for today
In the short term, there is a harvest season in the main regions, and there is also a certain level of industrial demand. Supply is expected to gradually increase in the latter part of the month. There are no clear export-related announcements yet. The domestic urea market may be stagnant and fluctuating at the current level.
(Fertilizer Industry Chinq Morning Brief) dated October 15, 2025
—
❤ Sulfur:
After several days of sharp increases, traders’ wait-and-see sentiment has somewhat subsided. However, holders of inventory maintain a positive attitude and are not strongly inclined to actively sell. In the short term, whether certain end-users will release rigid demand is worth watching. If traders at the port continue to follow up, the market may sustain its upward trend; otherwise, the sulfur market may enter a consolidation phase.
❤ Urea:
Yesterday, some low-end domestic urea offers saw decent transactions. Downstream buyers mostly followed cautiously and selectively at lower prices. With factory pending orders providing support, there is an expectation of price increases in offers. In the short term, prices are temporarily running in a consolidation pattern, and continued downstream follow-up remains a key point of attention.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market shows mixed supply and demand sentiment. Low-end transactions in the market have improved, while high-end pressure is increasing. There is still room for clarity, and expectations of linked supplementary declines remain.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market operated with a probing upward trend. With stable downstream replenishment, suppliers continued to raise their offers. However, as prices rise, market caution is increasing. Currently, domestic and international urea trends remain weak, with many awaiting guidance from Indian tender news. It is expected that this week will mainly see low-end price follow-ups.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated weakly. Compound fertilizer enterprises were actively shipping, but short-term land fertilization conditions are not yet in place, and fertilizer usage time is delayed. At present, ammonium chloride enterprises are receiving poor orders, inventories are relatively high, and the short-term weak trend is difficult to change, awaiting downstream sourcing to sink in.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market saw some improvement in transactions of low-end goods. However, the supply-demand fundamentals remain dominated by game-playing, and the buying and selling atmosphere in the market is still average. It is expected that the short-term market will run with weak fluctuations, with attention on changes in raw material trends.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
Domestic potassium chloride traders’ quotations are relatively stable, but under limited demand, transaction prices for different varieties are negotiated individually. Currently, the port price for imported 62% white potash is mostly between 3,150–3,450 yuan/ton, with prices higher in the south and lower in the north. The potassium sulfate market overall is experiencing slow shipments, and the room for price negotiation has increased.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to operate weakly and flatly. New prices from major manufacturers were released but had no significant impact. Downstream demand remains sluggish. Raw material sulfur continues to rise sharply, and sulfuric acid follows suit, increasing cost pressure. Operating loads of production units continue to decline. In the short term, the market is temporarily consolidating and observing.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained a stalemate trend. Raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost support. Enterprises are focused on shipping pending orders. Terminal demand is expected to further expand, and market activity may gradually increase. In the short term, the market continues to consolidate and observe.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the compound fertilizer market saw limited adjustments. Recently, urea prices have rebounded, and sulfur hit new highs, providing slight support to compound fertilizer costs. However, as the autumn season nears its end, enterprises are still actively promoting inventory digestion. Local transaction prices remain flexible, and sentiment is still weak. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market continues its weak consolidation.
Fertistream got EABC at 740 fob, 3 cargoes
Implies at 760 fob ag
Margins vary depending on the feedstock used for urea gasification and whether producers have access to international markets. Those able to export are enjoying the strongest profitability. Feedstock costs are at their lowest levels in four years, while we all know how strong global urea prices have been all year. Producers focused on domestic markets, where prices have been exceptionally low, are making a smaller margin but even at Yn1,500/t (~211/t) most coal-based producers can turn a profit. There are only a handful of coal-based producers at the margin selling into the domestic market with the majority incurring an ex-works cost less than $200/t. For gas-based producers that are still operating, it's a bit of a different story as some of the higher-cost facilities have production costs comparable to the most efficient European plants running on TTF gas priced around $10–12/mnBtu.
Morning. Int'l paper values weakening y'day – Nov AG traded back under $400, Nov Brazil framed either side of $410cfr. In Nola, nearby phys urea found sellers mid/upper-$370s, Q1 months continued to trade at a premium.
AG
Oct $390//$400
Nov $393//$402 – traded $403, $398s
Q4 $385//$405
Jan $375 Bid
Cfr Brazil
Oct $420//$425
Nov $405//$415 – traded 411
Dec $397//$410 – traded $407
Egypt
Oct $425//$448
Nov $412//$435
Dec $407 Buyer
Brazil Amsul
Oct $175//$180
Dec/Jan $168 Bid
Nola
Phys: Oct traded $375; Jan $380; Feb $390
Paper:
Oct $375//$385
Nov $370//$380
Dec $373//$380
Jan $380//$385
Feb $385//$393 – traded $391
Mar $395//$405
UAN Nola
Oct $320//$330
Nov $320//$335
Dec $320//$340
DAP Nola
Sep $775//$785
Oct $750//770
Q4 $720//$745
Q1 $685//$720
Oct MAP barge traded $700
MAP Brazil
Oct $670//$695
Nov $650//$675
This afternoon, the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association requested that all urea producers report their production costs. The purpose is to assess the industry's average cost, guide enterprises to jointly foster a fair and orderly competitive market environment, and promote high-quality development in the nitrogen fertilizer industry.
Brazilian soy farmers' use of no-till farming without other regenerative practices pushed consumption of agrochemicals to soar by over 2000% in the three decades to 2023, think tank Instituto Escolhas said in a study published on Monday.
Based on data from official sources, the report estimated that Brazilian soy farmers' use of agrochemicals, mostly herbicides, grew from 16,458 metric tons per year in 1993 to 348,809 tons per year in 2023.
"Without considering integrated systems … the practice of no-till farming alone can generate negative consequences for the soil, such as compaction and increased use of herbicides to control weeds," one of the report's coordinators, Jaqueline Ferreira, said in a press release.
No-till farming prevents erosion and boosts soil health, according to Instituto Escolhas. Yet as the practice grew in isolation, without other practices like crop rotation and providing living ground cover, weeds became a growing problem, requiring ever-greater quantities of herbicides.
"The practice was widely disseminated across Brazilian farms in isolation from other soil conservation and regeneration practices, making it highly dependent on the use of herbicides to control weeds," the report said.
Farmers' group Aprosoja Brasil did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
The growing use of chemicals far outstripped the expansion of Brazil's soy crop. The planted area of soy rose 317%, from 10.7 million hectares in 1993 (26.4 million acres) to 44.5 million hectares in 2023, the report said.
According to the report, while one kilogram of agrochemicals could produce 23 bags of soybeans in 1993, just seven bags of soybeans could be produced with the same amount in 2023.
"The intensive use of synthetic inputs is highly harmful to the soil and its microorganisms," the report said.
The report interviewed a total of 34 conventional, regenerative and organic soy farmers in Brazil's states of Mato Grosso, Goias and Parana, all of whom reported being concerned for the resilience of their crops in the medium and long term, citing rising prices of agricultural products and the impact of climate variations.
The dollar advanced against the euro and yen on Monday, after a change in rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump lowered the temperature of simmering trade tensions with China.
The U.S. dollar strengthened 0.61% to 0.804 against the Swiss franc , rebounding from the previous session when Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China.
The broadside revived bad memories of Trump's Liberation Day rollout of sweeping tariffs in April and sparked a selloff in stocks and cryptocurrencies on Friday.
"It's kind of a repeat of what happened after Liberation Day," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey.
"Traditionally, the U.S. dollar strengthens when there's any kind of risk-off or any kind of stress across asset classes or markets and, like Liberation Day, the opposite happened because of trade tensions between the U.S. and fellow trade partners in this case, China. Any time something like that comes up, people actually sell the U.S. dollar," Epstein said.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others, was last up 0.2% at 99.25, recovering from the previous session's drop.
"I still believe across all developed currencies, the U.S. dollar is still the primary safe haven; obviously, the Swiss franc is as well. With what happened last week, it was just essentially the same playbook: any kind of trade tensions means sell the U.S. dollar. Today, things are reversing because the trade tensions are seemingly de-escalating a little bit," Epstein added.
TRUMP SOFTENS TONE
After announcing the 100% tariffs on Friday, Trump said on Sunday: "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!"
"Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment," he posted on the Truth Social network. "He doesn't want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A wants to help China, not hurt it!!!"
Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October as the two sides try to de-escalate tensions over tariff threats and export controls, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday.
Trade tensions could weigh on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its next meeting, Thierry Wizman, FX and rates strategist, said in an investor note.
"If the prospect of a renewal of high tariffs still exists on October 29, it won't leave the FOMC at ease, especially with inflation in the U.S. still 'sticky.' If anything, the prospect of higher tariffs may make the Fed more reluctant to cut, or more inclined to deliver another "hawkish" cut," Wizman said.
European markets broadly shrugged off the French presidency's announcement of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet lineup on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister.
The euro was last down 0.4% at $1.1571 after advancing against the dollar in the previous session.
Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.81% to 152.36. A public holiday in Japan made for thinner trading.
Markets assessed the path ahead for Japan's new Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi after Komeito quit the ruling coalition on Friday, dealing a blow to her hopes of becoming the first female prime minister of the world's fourth-largest economy.
Traders will often borrow in a low-yielding currency to invest in a higher-yielder, known as a carry trade. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have typically been funding currencies and took a harder knock than others on Monday.
The Australian dollar, which tends to rally in a risk-on environment, rose 0.7% to $0.6514 , making it one of the best-performing major currencies against the dollar on Monday.
Sterling weakened 0.18% to $1.3334. The dollar weakened 0.14% to 7.137 versus the offshore Chinese yuan.
The crypto sector last Friday experienced over $19 billion in liquidations of leveraged positions, which market players said were the largest in history, after Trump announced the tariffs on Chinese imports and hinted at possible export restrictions on key software.
On Monday, bitcoin gained 0.23% at $115,322.97. Ethereum rose 2.6% to $4,250.75.
China Morning Brief 14th October 2024
❤ Urea:
Yesterday, most urea enterprises in key regions saw improved new order transactions. Today’s quotations are expected to rise slightly in a stable manner. However, the post-increase transaction performance will depend on market sentiment. In the short term, the market is expected to remain firm.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market shows average supply and demand. Overall supply is relatively abundant, agricultural demand is weak, and industrial demand remains relatively stable. There are limited bullish or bearish factors in the market, resulting in a stalemate atmosphere. In some regions with average order-taking, there may still be expectations of supplementary price declines.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market continued to rise. With stable downstream replenishment, suppliers held firm on their offers. Currently, both domestic and international urea trends remain weak, and many are waiting for guidance from the Indian tender. This week is expected to see mainly low-price follow-up.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated at a low level. As the prolonged rainy weather gradually ends, compound fertilizer enterprises are actively shipping goods. However, land fertilization conditions are not yet in place, so overall market transactions remain sluggish. Ammonium chloride enterprises are receiving few orders, inventories are high, and short-term demand is unlikely to improve. The ammonium chloride market continues its weak trend.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market edged down slightly. Enterprises flexibly adjusted prices based on their own order situations. In the short term, supply tightened due to maintenance and shutdowns at some regional enterprises. However, under the current relatively weak demand, the market buying and selling atmosphere remains subdued. The short-term market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material trends.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic potash fertilizer market was relatively flat. Domestic potassium chloride manufacturers maintained stable new prices without adjustments. Traders had varying volumes of goods for sale, and transactions were negotiated individually. Domestic potassium sulfate sales were not active, with significant sales pressure and noticeable differences in actual transaction prices.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market showed weak consolidation, with no significant price changes. Overall demand remained weak. Raw material sulfur prices continued to rise, and sulfuric acid followed suit, leading to sustained cost pressure. Factory profits continued to decline, and prices temporarily stopped falling.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in a stalemate. Raw material prices continued to rise, putting significant pressure on production costs. Enterprises are mainly fulfilling previous orders. Although the weather has cleared, actual demand follow-up still takes time. Market sentiment remains cautious, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a consolidating trend.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market showed weak consolidation. There were signs of improvement in low-end urea transactions, domestic potash prices remained stable, and sulfur continued to rise, which may somewhat boost market sentiment. Coupled with gradually improving weather in most parts of North China, autumn fertilizer restocking and shipments may gradually improve. In the short term, although the compound fertilizer market remains weak, price fluctuations may narrow.
Just wanted to bring you up to speed with our version of the market. The latest report is attached. Comments on that welcome. In the meantime this week we have:
– China NOP fobs are down to $685-690/t fob for ferts grade with ind grades at $740-760/t fob. Not much demand. Domestic prices have also come off as demand is weak and the industry waits for tobacco tenders to start.
– tMAP out of China is done – prices are notionally $930 fob but there is no supply left.
WS SOP : Brazil at $660 cfr, Taiwanese on offer into Mexico at $700/t cfr bagged
CN fob China still $170 fob
MKP fob China a little softer at $1210-1220/t fob
Seems every week there is more evidence of new WS SOP production coming on line. This week we hear reports of more capacity in Vietnam at Phu My.