Today, the official media even "promoted" the concept of controllable nuclear fusion. During the midday break, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China's artificial sun project is expected to be completed in 2027, and at that time, it is anticipated to become the first device to achieve nuclear fusion power generation in human history.
When asked about the differences between nuclear fission power generation and nuclear fusion power generation, there are four advantages that can be summarized:
It is more environmentally friendly, does not produce carbon emissions, and also avoids the generation of nuclear waste, unlike nuclear fission.
The fuel is more abundant, with a wide range of sources for deuterium and tritium (such as seawater), and vast reserves. It is not as scarce as the fuel used in nuclear fission reactions.
More efficient, with a higher energy output efficiency compared to nuclear fission power generation.
It is safer and there is no risk of nuclear fission meltdown, as the nuclear reaction can be quickly halted.
Humans have actually been familiar with the technology of nuclear fusion for a long time. In 1952, the United States conducted a test explosion of the first hydrogen bomb, which is a form of nuclear fusion. However, nuclear fusion similar to the hydrogen bomb can only be used as a weapon. To capture and utilize this energy, it is essential to make nuclear fusion controllable. Once controllable nuclear fusion is mastered, human civilization as a whole will enter a new dimension.
Now that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced this, given the cautious approach typical of Chinese practices, it is likely that they have a clear understanding of the project's progress and are confident that a controllable nuclear fusion device can eventually be developed to generate electricity. However, it is important to note that this does not necessarily mean that controllable nuclear fusion has been successfully achieved by humanity, as it also involves considerations of energy production efficiency. Simply put, existing controllable nuclear fusion devices require more energy than what they produce to operate and maintain themselves, resulting in a net loss on paper. Significant technological advancements are needed over many years. Nevertheless, it is highly probable that humanity will master controllable nuclear fusion within the next 300 years.
Morning As RCF struggled to secure tonnes, and with phys sales in N.Africa soaring, Urea paper values found support last week, and firmed up (Nov AG & Nola contracts up $20 by end of week). Mkts framed Fri close:
AG
Nov $419//$425 – traded $415, $416, $418 Fri
_[Nov traded $398-418 last week]_
Dec $403//$415
Jan $390//$410
Cfr Brazil
Nov $414//$425
_[Nov traded $410 l/w]_
Dec $405//$417
_[Dec traded $398, $399 l/w]_
Jan $395//$410
Egypt
Nov $440//$460
_[Nov traded $435 l/w]_
Dec $420//$440
Nola
Paper:
Nov $385//$390 – traded $389, $393, $390 Fri
Dec $385//$393 – traded $391, $393, $390 Fri
Jan $390//$400 – traded $395 Fri
Feb $395//$405
Mar $400//$415
DAP Nola
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660
Monday, 27 October 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
India : RCF has extended again the deadline for submission of acceptances by bidders until tomorrow. 28 October at 12:00hrs IST (06:30 GMT) under its 15 October urea import tender.
The state agency has not received any further confirmations to its counters.
It has so far only secured 430,700t, including the L1 quantities.
𝑪𝘽𝑨𝙈 𝙖𝒏𝙙 𝙁𝒆𝙧𝒕𝙞𝒍𝙞𝒛𝙚𝒓𝙨: 𝑬𝙪𝒓𝙤𝒑𝙚’𝙨 𝘼𝒈𝙧𝒊𝙘𝒖𝙡𝒕𝙪𝒓𝙖𝒍 𝑺𝙚𝒄𝙩𝒐𝙧 𝙁𝒂𝙘𝒆𝙨 𝙖 𝙉𝒆𝙬 𝙋𝒐𝙡𝒊𝙘𝒚 𝑺𝙝𝒐𝙘𝒌
Across France, Germany, Spain, and Italy, the debate around the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is heating up… and for good reason.
From January 2026, imported nitrogen fertilizers will face new carbon costs based on the emissions generated in their country of origin.
While designed to curb “carbon leakage” and encourage cleaner production globally, the policy is also said to risk pushing prices sharply upward for European farmers already under pressure.
Here’s what’s reported in the specialized media across Europe:
France – Producer groups said to warn that CBAM could add €120-150/tonne to imported nitrogen fertilizer. With low cereal prices, they call for either compensation or a delay in implementation.
Germany – Industry said to call for a longer transition period and more predictable rules. EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers (up to €430/tonne) may compound the shock.
Spain – It is heard that farmers expect higher costs as CBAM reporting and certificate purchases start in 2026. The government is considering support schemes to offset these impacts.
Italy – Fertilizer prices are said to be already up 10–12% this year, and analysts estimate CBAM could add over €160 million to import costs by 2034.
⚖️ The challenge ahead
Policymakers must strike a balance between climate ambition and food security. Without targeted support, the carbon cost of fertilizers could erode farm margins and threaten competitiveness as Europe strives for a greener agricultural model.
China domestic market report 27/10/2025
Phosphate Rock:
Last week, the domestic phosphate rock market in southern China remained generally stable, while the northern market experienced localized fluctuations. Some enterprises slightly lowered their quotations by 10 yuan/ton. This discrepancy mainly stems from differences in inventory structures among enterprises, leading to loosened transaction prices in some cases. The reference ex-factory tax-inclusive cash price for 33% grade phosphate powder in Hebei is 910 yuan/ton, but actual transaction prices still need to be negotiated based on specific order conditions.
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Last week, the domestic MAP market trended upward. Raw material sulfur prices continued to rise sharply, and sulfuric acid prices followed suit. Driven by costs, a few producers in Central China quoted 3300–3370 yuan/ton for 55-grade powder, subject to actual negotiation. Most factories suspended order-taking and quotations. Downstream inquiries slightly improved, but purchases were mainly based on rigid demand, and prices remained inverted.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
Last week, the domestic DAP market was sluggish. Rising sulfur prices significantly increased production cost pressures, leading most enterprises to suspend new orders. However, downstream demand was slow to release, overall procurement enthusiasm was low, and market trading sentiment was weak. In the short term, the market is expected to continue consolidating.
Industrial-grade MAP:
Last week, industrial-grade MAP prices rose. The mainstream market average for domestic 73% industrial-grade MAP was around 5850 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations on a case-by-case basis. With soaring sulfur prices, enterprises halted quotations and contracts, focusing on pending deliveries. In the short term, the industrial MAP market is steadily rising. Future trends will depend on downstream demand and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
Last week, yellow phosphorus prices slightly increased. Mainstream transactions in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan ranged from 21,750–21,950 yuan/ton. Quotations in Yunnan and Sichuan were concentrated at 21,800–21,900 yuan/ton, while Guizhou was quoted at 22,000–22,100 yuan/ton. Sporadic offers remained firm, but downstream buyers were cautious and reluctant to accept high prices. Market participants showed clear wait-and-see sentiment, with quiet inquiry and trading atmospheres.
Phosphoric Acid:
Last week, the domestic thermal-process phosphoric acid market remained sluggish. Although yellow phosphorus prices slightly rebounded, cost support was insufficient, and the market was still constrained by weak demand. The purified wet-process phosphoric acid market showed a stalemate. Production facilities were undergoing both restarts and maintenance. Demand was mainly driven by new energy, while traditional chemical sector demand remained weak. Additionally, the continued low prices of competing thermal-process phosphoric acid exerted downward pressure. Market prices lacked upward momentum. Reference ex-factory prices for purified thermal-process phosphoric acid were 6150–6200 yuan/ton in Sichuan and 6650–6700 yuan/ton delivered in Jiangsu, with actual deals negotiated by volume.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP):
Last week, the DCP market trended upward. Sulfur prices continued to surge, and sulfuric acid prices rose in tandem. Due to significant cost pressure, most producers suspended new orders and quotation updates. Downstream inquiry activity improved, but purchases remained driven by rigid demand, with overall procurement relatively stable. Current mainstream trade prices: Yunnan 3160–3170 yuan/ton; Sichuan 3150–3180 yuan/ton (no factory quotes); Hubei 3450 yuan/ton (tight supply). Yunnan mono/dicalcium phosphate: 4300 yuan/ton; Guizhou: 4350 yuan/ton. Yunnan DCP: 4650–4660 yuan/ton; Guizhou DCP: 4730–4750 yuan/ton.
Pesticides:
Glyphosate market showed a stable-to-strong trend. Mainstream transaction prices remained high. Recent increases in overseas formulation orders boosted operator expectations. Reference price for 95% glyphosate technical material is 27,500 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated individually.
Sulfur:
This week, the domestic sulfur spot market showed continuous sharp increases and strong performance. As of the last working day, the reference price for granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was 3330 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.71%. Positive news from overseas markets continued to heat up sentiment: CFR deals at $400/ton reported in Indonesia and southern China, and FOB deals at $412/ton in Qatar significantly boosted seller confidence. Domestic sulfur tender prices also rose. Under dual favorable conditions, market sentiment continued to rise. Domestic resources surged across the board, driven by port activity, with increases of 100–250 yuan/ton. Shandong liquid sulfur market jumped for consecutive days, with high-end prices reaching 3235 yuan/ton. Northwest market followed suit, with solid sulfur prices at 2780–3050 yuan/ton. Today’s focus is on spot market trading.
Sulfuric Acid:
Last week, sulfuric acid prices rose in multiple regions. With high sulfur prices, cost pressures continued to climb, and acid plants were eager to maintain prices. In Hubei, downstream sulfuric acid facilities were concentrated in maintenance, and some acid enterprises in East China were also undergoing maintenance, keeping the market supply tight. Last week, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Zhejiang, and Yunnan raised prices by about 60 yuan/ton. Current delivered prices for 98% smelting acid: Hubei 630–740 yuan/ton; Yunnan 720–750 yuan/ton.
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices remained stable. Non-recycled process prices held at 10,000–11,000 yuan/ton; recycled process prices at 8500–9000 yuan/ton. Some producers began slightly raising quotations, and prices may rise slightly in the future. Downstream demand for energy storage remained strong, and power applications were steadily strong. Leading manufacturers continued ramping up capacity, with lithium iron phosphate production expected to hit new highs. As a result, iron phosphate orders were full. Integrated manufacturers reached new production highs, and export-oriented producers maintained high operating loads, with overall operating rates above 70%. With strong supply and demand, prices are expected to rise slightly.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):
Last week, LFP prices slightly increased. Power-type LFP prices ranged from 33,700–36,500 yuan/ton, up 1.42% week-on-week. Energy storage-type LFP prices ranged from 32,600–34,600 yuan/ton, up 1.33% week-on-week. Lithium carbonate prices continued to strengthen due to supply-side disruptions and rising mine prices. LFP cost-side support remained strong, and short-term prices are expected to rise. Overall, cost-side support is boosting LFP. Leading LFP material manufacturers maintained high operating loads, and peak season momentum continued. With rising EV penetration and dual drivers from energy storage, demand resilience is evident. In the short term, LFP prices are expected to rise with raw material cost logic.
Synthetic Ammonia:
The synthetic ammonia market remained generally well-supplied. Last week, regions with short-term supply reductions saw price rebounds, such as Hebei and Hubei. Other well-supplied regions mostly saw stable-to-lower prices. Attention will be on the recovery of previously maintained or faulty ammonia plants. With weak supply-demand dynamics, market sentiment remains cautious.
Compound Fertilizer:
Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market remained stable. Wheat fertilizer season is ending, and enterprises are reducing inventory. Recent shipments improved. Price-wise, some raw materials performed well, supporting stable compound fertilizer operations. New season policies and pricing are being prepared. In the short term, compound fertilizer will maintain a consolidation trend.
Hydrogen Peroxide:
Last week, the northern hydrogen peroxide market remained stable. Supply was generally stable, with expectations of increased operating rates. Water enterprises mainly absorbed price increases. Trading was acceptable. As supply-side facilities ramped up, some water enterprises faced shipment pressure, leading to lower quotations and weaker transaction focus. Main production areas in the north and south are expected to remain stable.
Monopotassium Phosphate (MKP):
The MKP market continued its weak and volatile pattern. In Xinjiang, the fertilizer season has not yet started, and enterprise operating rates remain low. Market trading sentiment is subdued. In the short term, without substantial positive support, the weak market trend may persist, and price levels will remain under pressure. Reference ex-factory price for crystal MKP from major manufacturers is 8200 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated individually. <This message was edited>
The ripple effects from Nutrien’s surprise decision to halt operations at its four ammonia plants in the Caribbean indefinitely were felt immediately across the Atlantic amid a sudden burst of Algerian spot sales at higher prices to those done just 24 hours previously.
The Canadian major said the controlled shut down of its Point Lisas complex was in “response to port access restrictions” and a “lack of reliable and economic natural gas supply that has reduced the free cash flow contribution of the Trinidad Nitrogen operations over an extended period of time”.
With the island home to ten plants that generated an average 270,000t per month of export volume in 2024, the loss of output from its largest producer – Nutrien shipped just over 1m. tonnes last year – was the catalyst for a price rally in North Africa.
Having sold 30,000t at $600pt fob Arzew earlier in the week, Algeria’s Sorfert then concluded 60,000t of sales at $625pt fob shortly after the Nutrien shutdown announcement.
On the face of it, the unexpected downtime at Nutrien’s operations will be a blow to buyers and traders in the Americas and Europe, but given at least one of the group’s units was due to commence a turnaround soon, part of the lost volume was likely already anticipated.
Such maintenance was heard scheduled to coincide with annual natgas curtailments of 30% that will impact all manufacturers on the island for 10 days or more in mid-November, further reducing fourth quarter availability.
With major new capacity in Texas yet to debut, the merchant market West of Suez looks tight until at least year-end, but traders are seeking to optimise arbitrage opportunities for East to West business amid a sudden jump in Chinese export volumes.
One of Mitsui’s tankers is due to depart Lianyungang shortly with 23,400t of spot volume for Moroccan phosphates major, OCP Group, with that recipient also concluding business in Turkey and, possibly, North Africa.
Along with Morocco, Chinese volumes have been offered into Northwest Europe at relatively competitive prices for late Q4/early Q1 arrival, while smaller cargoes have also loaded for buyers in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
Saudi shutdown eats into Middle East availability
Firmer prices have been a trend in Asia Pacific since the late-August shutdown of a 1.1m tonne/year plant operated by Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden, but turnarounds at chemical units across Northeast Asia have seen that price rally run out of steam recently.
Shipments from the Middle East’s largest producer and exporter have been badly disrupted since the Ras Al-Khair unit went quiet, with market participants not expecting a restart until early 2026.
The other good news for buyers in India and Asia Pacific is that manufacturers in Indonesia appear to have plenty of surplus tonnes, with vessels loading regularly at Bontang and Luwuk and several traders currently sending tankers to the wider region to load.
Australian availability also looks decent and a 20,000t spot cargo from Yara’s Pilbara plant was recently dropped in east coast India.
Given the negative Nutrien news, spot activity into Europe was limited as recipients tried to limit their exposure to offshore deliveries and hunt for more favourably priced domestic/regional material.
However, while no new deals into Turkey have yet been announced, buyers are said to have been offered discounted shipments from the Baltic and Iran for November arrival.
Clarity over price direction should emerge in the coming week, with buyers crossing their fingers that Nutrien and local authorities in Trinidad can reach agreements that allow the prompt restart of its multiple plants
https://fertilizerfield.com/indian-fertilizer-consumption-70-70-mmt-2024-25/?no_cache=1
🇮🇳 India braces for higher fertiliser prices as China suspends exports
India is preparing for higher fertiliser prices ahead of the crucial rabi (winter) crop season after China suspended exports of urea and specialty fertilisers from October 15, a senior industry official said on Tuesday.
🇨🇳 China, which had only recently resumed fertiliser exports from May 15 to October 15 with increased inspections, has now suspended the export window until further notice, affecting not just India but global markets as well.
The suspension covers specialty fertilisers like TMAP (Technical Monoammonium Phosphate) and Urea-solution products like AdBlue, as well as conventional fertilisers such as DAP and urea.
"China has closed the export window from October 15 not only for India but the entire world market," Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA) President Rajib Chakraborty told PTI.
"I believe the export suspension will be for the next 5-6 months," he said.
India imports about 95 per cent of its specialty fertilisers, including phosphates like TMAP and emission-control fluids like AdBlue, from China.
Chakraborty said specialty fertiliser prices, already at abnormally high levels, could rise 10-15 per cent due to the Chinese export curbs.
India consumes around 250,000 tonnes of specialty fertilisers annually, with 60-65 per cent used during the rabi season, which runs from October to March.
The industry official said meeting demand for the ongoing rabi season would not be a problem as traders have already secured supplies available through global trading agencies, though prices would be affected.
"If Chinese export curbs continue beyond March 2026 then it would be a concern," Chakraborty said, adding that the rabi season may extend until March this year due to better water availability.
India has alternative supply sources including South Africa, Chile and Croatia, but only for one or two products, he added.
Too paper trading firms in China:
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leaderboard. Since the table is split into long and short sides but the quantities are the same within each side (just opposite exposures), we can treat it as one unified ranking by position volume.
Here’s the ordered list of firms from largest to smallest position size:
—
🏆 Position Ranking by Quantity
1. 中信期货 (CITIC Futures) — 13,528
2. 中国国际期货 (China International Futures) — 13,484
3. 永安期货 (Yongan Futures) — 13,056
4. 国泰君安期货 (Guotai Junan Futures) — 12,902
5. 海通期货 (Haitong Futures) — 12,345
6. 光大期货 (Everbright Futures) — 11,876
7. 银河期货 (Galaxy Futures) — 11,542
8. 华泰期货 (Huatai Futures) — 11,238
9. 南华期货 (Nanhua Futures) — 10,984
10. 中粮期货 (COFCO Futures) — 10,642
11. 东证期货 (Orient Securities Futures) — 10,328
12. 申银万国期货 (Shenwan Futures) — 9,874
13. 招商期货 (CMB Futures) — 9,562
14. 建信期货 (CCB Futures) — 9,248
15. 兴证期货 (Industrial Securities Futures) — 8,936
16. 浙商期货 (Zheshang Futures) — 8,542
17. 华西期货 (Huaxi Futures) — 8,214
18. 五矿期货 (Minmetals Futures) — 7,986
19. 一德期货 (Yide Futures) — 7,642
20. 徽商期货 (Huishang Futures) — 7,328
—
🔎 Notes
• These are the top 20 firms by open interest in that contract on 24 Oct 2025.
• The long and short tables mirror each other in terms of firm names and volumes, since the exchange reports both sides of the open interest.
• The key insight is who dominates the leaderboard: the top 5 firms alone account for a huge chunk of the total open interest, showing a very concentrated market structure.
China domestic urea meeting: Content of the meeting:
1. The participating enterprises reported one by one on their respective production costs, maintenance and repair plans, challenges faced, stockpiling and export situations, and their opinions and suggestions.
2. Participants generally believed that the current price level represented the absolute bottom. After hearing reports from various parties, FG expressed satisfaction with the efforts to ensure price stability in 2025. They acknowledged the suggestions and opinions of all parties and stated that maintaining stable prices was a prerequisite for ensuring adequate supply. Price stabilization was not about achieving an absolute low price.
3. It is hoped that all parties will continue to do a good job in ensuring price stability and supply security, and will compile the suggestions and opinions from all parties. Good methods and strategies proposed by various parties will be reported to higher authorities.
This meeting is primarily intended to lay the groundwork for future endeavors.
Oil prices fell on Friday as skepticism crept into the market about the Trump administration's commitment to sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies over the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures settled 5 cents, or 0.1%, lower at $65.94 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures finished at $61.50 a barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5%.
Both benchmarks had risen earlier in the session, extending gains of more than 5% made on Thursday after the sanctions were announced, but retreated in the last two hours of trading. They still ended the week over 7% higher, the biggest weekly rise since mid-June.
"There is renewed skepticism these sanctions will be as harsh as they are said to be," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC.
U.S. President Donald Trump hit Russia's Rosneft, opens new tab and Lukoil, opens new tab with sanctions to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war.
The two companies together account for more than 5% of global oil output, and Russia was the world's second-biggest crude oil producer in 2024 after the U.S.
The sanctions prompted Chinese state oil majors to suspend Russian oil purchases in the short term, trade sources told Reuters. Refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, were set to sharply cut Russian crude imports, industry sources said.
"Flows to India are at risk in particular," Janiv Shah, a vice president of oil markets analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a client note. "Challenges to Chinese refiners would be more muted, considering the diversification of crude sources and stock availability."
Kuwait's oil minister said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would be ready to offset any shortage in the market by raising production.
The U.S. said it was prepared to take further action, while Putin derided the sanctions as an unfriendly act, saying they would not significantly affect the Russian economy and talking up Russia's importance to the global market.
Britain imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last week and the European Union approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia that includes a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas.
The EU also added two Chinese refiners with a combined capacity of 600,000 barrels per day, as well as Chinaoil Hong Kong, a trading arm of PetroChina, opens new tab, to its Russian sanctions list, its official journal showed on Thursday.
Looking ahead, investors were also focusing on a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as the pair work to defuse long standing trade tensions and end a spate of tit-for-tat retaliatory measures.
Friday, 24 October 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Algeria : AOA has traded a cargo of 25 ,000t of granular urea at $458/t FOB Arzew for November shipment to a nearby destination. It follows November granular sales earlier this week at $435/t FOB.
Morning. Prior to RCF confirm deadline today, a flurry of higher phys sales reported in N.Africa and AG y'day. Int'l paper reacted with bids stepping up, and trading activity seen across Nov/Dec Brazil and Nov Egypt.
AG
Oct $393//$400
Nov $402//$413
Dec $395//$405
Jan $380//$400
Cfr Brazil
Oct $417//$423
Nov $408//$414 – traded $410
Dec $398//$408 – traded $398, $399 (2.5k)
Jan $390//$403
Egypt
Oct $430//$440
Nov $433//$448 – traded $435 (1.5k)
Dec $415//$430
Brazil Amsul
Nov $175//$185
Dec $170//$185
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $393
Paper:
Nov $372//$376
Dec $373//$385
Jan $380//$390
Feb $385//$395
Mar $395//$405
UAN Nola
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660
-THE MARKET IS AWAITING VOLUMES TO BE COMMITTED TO INDIA ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE NUMBER WILL BE WELL SHORT OF THE DESIRED 2 MILLION METRIC TONS
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE FALLING WITH MAP IN BRAZIL NOW AT AROUND USD 650 PMT CFR DOWN FROM USD 775 PMT CFR IN APRIL
-ALL EYES ARE ON CONTRACT PRICE SETTLEMENTS IN CHINA
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE RAISING AHEAD DUE TO PRODUCTION ISSUES RESULTING IN LESS SUPPLIES
UREA
The urea market is walking slowly along like a turtle in a sandstorm with spot activities almost coming to a standstill with all awaiting volume LOI acceptances in the RCF India tender. Adding to the uncertainty is what the NDRC of China will do on a possible 4th quota. Urea FOB levels in China are now around USD 232 PMT equivalent, and one should think that India would provide a windfall for Chinese urea producers. The market is expecting that China will provide around 250 KT to India from the 3rd quota.
Reports coming out of Brazil indicate small volumes off floaters sold at USD 405 PMT CFR with larger volumes bid at sub-USD 400PMT CFR for November arrival.
US NOLA is at around USD 405 PMT CFR equivalent with activity said to one barge per day transacted. Egypt producers have been successful in selling granular urea progressively between a low of USD 425 to as high as USD 440 PMT FOB with November loadings. Sorfert of Algeria sold 15,000 MT November loading at USD 435 PMT FOB. SABIC is reported to have sold 25,000 MT FOB at USD 395 for prompt loading. Fertiglobe is reported to have sold 150,000 MT of granular urea to Ethiopia at USD 406.50 PMT FOB.
Nutrien is closing its Point Lisa Trinidad ammonia and urea operations which will see 85KT ammonia and 55KT granular urea each per month disappear from the market. Not massive amounts in the scheme of things but sufficient to put a small dent in the regular trade flows to the US.
Argentina’s January to September imports of urea reached 879 KT up 17% or 128 KT Y/Y.
In summary, the direction of the market hinges on volumes committed to India which is thought to be far less than the anticipated 2 million MT sought. Further, China’s export position is watched carefully.
In any event, the global urea market hangs in the balance with a soft undercurrent.
PHOSPHATES
DAP and MAP prices remain under pressure, with Brazil MAP prices suffering further falls, though overall global spot market activity was limited this week. Seaborne MAP sales to Brazil are reported around $660pt cfr this week and prices are suggested as low as $650pt cfr by one importer. The price of $660pt cfr is down an average of $15pt from last week’s assessment of $670-680pt cfr. In April this year the MAP price was as high as USD 760 PMT CFR.
In recent weeks, producers have been selling MAP to Brazil only under formula, or else avoiding the market due to the persistence of downwards price pressure. Some indications now suggest there would likely be liquidity for sales at an import price of around $650pt cfr.
A trader is rumoured to be shipping a Russian MAP cargo to Paranagua, though this has yet to be confirmed.
Brazil’s inland MAP prices are reported by some importers to have dropped to as low as around $630pt cfr equivalent. Most prior reports pegged inland levels at around $640-650pt cfr equivalent.
Some local sources in Brazil say they expect further MAP price declines over the short term, particularly following the conclusion of the Safrinha season. However, prices in Brazil are already at the low end of the global DAP/MAP range, and there are some signs of a slowdown in price declines in the market.
Domestic DAP prices are seen flat again in China this week although increased production costs are squeezing domestic returns. Qatar Energy awarded its latest sulphur contract at around USD 412 PMT FOB which gives a China CFR price of around USD 430 PMT. On the average, sulphur as an integral part of the DAP production cost is responsible for about 40% of the cost. Government policy of ensuring supply and stabilising prices remains the main factor defining domestic prices with low grain prices and high rains in China also limiting demand somewhat.
Domestic DAP prices are again seen at CNY3,500-4,000pt exw ($491-561pt), also unchanged wk-on-wk on a USD basis. The high end of prices is in Shandong, with the mid-range in Hubei and southwest China activity at the low end. Unconfirmed reports now suggest sales as high as CNY4,100-4,150pt exw but these have not been confirmed.
Maximum domestic DAP prices were previously set at CNY3,950pt delivered for East China regions and CNY3,600pt delivered for North China regions.
Despite recent price declines for exports, the discount for domestic DAP returns remains as much as $210-220pt.
DAP lite (57%) prices in China over recent weeks edged higher, reaching roughly $480-500pt exw in East China.
DAP markets were quieter this week, though assessments generally inched down further. The key India DAP spot benchmark declined further to $747-752/t CFR from $747-760/t, though market activity was limited this week, partly due to Diwali holidays and partly due to buyers holding off in anticipation of greater price falls and confirmation of subsidy rates. The assessment had been stable at $810/t CFR flat for three weeks before starting to decline eight weeks ago. It is still up from $632-634/t CFR at the end of February and $690-700/t CFR at the start of May. As previously reported, although volumes will be shifted to traders and some loopholes are likely to be found, 15 October was the official last day of customs clearance for export tonnes from China under current quota allowances. China's total exports of DAP and MAP together were around 3.8 Mt from January to September, leaving limited remaining export quota allocations. Earlier this month, multiple suppliers indicated that around 300,000 t of DAP remained under quota allocations, and sources now suggest much of this has been committed to Bangladesh. Still, some DAP FOB offers were indicated at lower levels, while domestic DAP/MAP prices were being supported by higher raw material costs.
POTASH
Potash prices remained mostly steady, with only slight fluctuations seen in Europe and parts of the US. Market attention continues to centre on the upcoming China contract and how it may influence the market amid this period of stability. Despite limited recent market movement, potash industry players gathered at a European conference this week, and during the event, discussions largely centred on the upcoming China contract and the overall market outlook. Neither bullish nor bearish sentiment dominated, with most participants anticipating only modest changes in the medium term. Market support largely hinges on China, where the contract expires at year-end. Unlike previous years, there is increasing sentiment that the settlement could occur earlier, between January and March, primarily driven by supply security concerns. This outlook reflects lower stocks following the release of 1.1 Mt of potash reserves earlier this year, as well as QSL’s focus since September on producing higher-grade products (57–59% K2O). Despite ongoing caution and expectations of potential price declines if negotiations are delayed, formal talks have yet to begin. The China-Russia cross-border contract is likely to be settled at $352–355/t DAP Mazhouli for white 62% K2O potash in November, representing a rollover from the previous month.
The Brazilian MOP market remained largely unchanged this week, with limited deals as buyers shift focus to SSP for the upcoming season. New offers at $365/t CFR emerged, but market participants generally viewed these as inflated due to extended payment terms rather than true net prices. The global market is watching closely to see if the softening continues, although stability is expected in the near term.
AMMONIA
The ammonia market tightened further this week with a Nutrien shutdown in Trinidad the latest blow to buyers seeking some relief from relentlessly rising prices. Spot sales from Algeria to Yara this week as high as $625/t FOB marks a sharp increase in theoretical delivered prices into northwest Europe to as high as $675/t CFR. Still, there is little information that other buyers are willing to pay this level. Europe’s ammonia producers remain comfortably in the money at current TTF gas prices and tonnes from Asia were said to be on offer to Europe around $640/t CFR. Ammonia is tight globally with a significant and extended outage in Saudi Arabia and there is increasing talk of demand destruction. While the Nutrien outage spooked the market on 21 October, by 23 October a rumour was widespread that Nutrien was poised to restart again in Trinidad, possibly pointing to an agreement over port fees, which appears to have been the catalyst for Nutrien’s decision to halt output. Algeria’s export price is now the highest since January 2024. The benchmark has increased 57%, or $223/t, from the low in June this year of $390/t FOB. The delivered price in northwest Europe is its highest in two years. Yara’s latest purchases from Sorfert will be directed to its own plants in Europe. In the Middle East, Ma’aden’s MPC outage is ongoing with some speculating the curtailment may continue into the New Year or beyond. The 1.1 Mt/year ammonia unit went down unexpectedly at the end August and is likely to be down until the end of the year at the earliest, with the loss of at least 300,000 t production. Contract prices in the Far East continue to firm on restricted supply, with recent indications from Taiwan, China up around $70/t in a month. China is emerging as one of the few sources of spot cargoes in the region. Prices in India are also climbing. On a brighter note, supply may improve with Woodside’s Beaumont plant in Texas expected to begin production before the year is out, and not before time for a market starved of tonnes
RCF acceptances so far:
West Coast: 340,700t
– Agricommodities (ETG): 94,300t (L1)
– Ameropa: 97,400t
– Keytrade: 44,000t
– Midgulf: 30,000t
– Quest: 50,000t
– Sabic: 25,000t (prills)
East Coast: 90,000t
– Agrifields: 90,000t (L1)
Total: 430,700t