our brazil team is having 'fun' with the potash market. there's some fuckery going on where people are trading at one level but the seller issues a credit note to bring the real price down $5. i don't know why they can't just lie to the publications
Chuanjinxiang East Java Province Project
With a total investment of RMB 4.2 billion (approximately US$600 million), the project will be developed in two phases: Phase I, with an investment of RMB 1.24 billion, will leverage Indonesia's abundant urea resources to establish production lines for 120,000 tons/year of melamine, 150,000 tons/year of nitric acid, and 200,000 tons/year of ammonium nitrate. This will precisely meet the chemical feedstock demands of local wood processing and furniture manufacturing industries while providing high-efficiency fertilizers for agriculture; Phase II, with a planned investment of RMB 3.06 billion, will utilize Indonesia's high-quality natural gas as feedstock to establish production lines for 200,000 tons/year of synthetic ammonia and 500,000 tons/year of urea. This will form a complete closed-loop industrial chain: "natural gas → synthetic ammonia → urea → melamine → downstream materials."
Baltic Dry index just hit a two-week higher after China introduced additional port fees on U.S. linked vessels.
Rising freight costs and shifting trade dynamics once again show how sensitive the shipping world is to geopolitical changes.
In times like these, sustainable and efficient operations become not only an environmental goal, but a financial advantage.
Singapore, 21 October (Argus) — State-owned fertilizer producer Pupuk Indonesia has prepared around 1.2mn t of subsidised fertilizer stocks for the October-March planting season for registered domestic farmers as of 20 October, the company said.
This volume is nearly three times higher than the minimum subsidised fertilizer requirement set by the government. The national stock volumes of subsidised fertilizers consist of 510,300t of urea, 610,600t of NPK fertilizers, 14,300t of special formula NPK fertilizers for cocoa crops, 8,800t of ammonium sulphate and 56,700t of Pupuk's Petroganik organic fertilizers. These fertilizer stocks are already in producer warehouses and buffer warehouses in districts throughout Indonesia.
Pupuk Indonesia has also prepared around 480,400t of non-subsidised fertilizer stock for local farmers that are unable to procure subsidised fertilizers. Total volumes of non-subsidised products are at 412,400t of urea, 27,400t of NPK fertilizers and 40,700t of ammonium sulphate.
Pupuk Indonesia has set a highest retail price (HET) for the sale of subsidised fertilizers in 50kg bags. The HET for urea fertilizers is set at 2,250 rupiah/kg ($136/t), while for NPK Phonska fertilizers it is at 2,300 rupiah/kg ($139/t). For NPK fertilizers for cocoa it is at 3,300 rupiah/kg ($199/t), and for organic fertilizers it is at 800 rupiah/kg ($48/t). But these subsidised fertilizer products are only applicable for farmers planting rice, corn, soybeans, cassava, chilli, shallots, garlic, sugarcane, cocoa, and coffee with a maximum land area of two hectares per planting season. Farmers are also required to be members of a farmer group and registered in the electronic definitive group needs plan (e-RDKK).
Morning. Int'l paper largely unchanged/quiet y'day given Diwali holiday, lack of news from India, and absence of any further trading signals. Nola trade driven by spreads between phys and paper, but values still seen in contango.
AG
Oct $390//$398
Nov $397//$403
Dec $385//$398
Cfr Brazil
Oct $415///$422.50
Nov $403//$412
Dec $395//$408
Jan $390//$403
Egypt
Oct $427//$440
Nov $405//$425
Dec $395//$420
Brazil Amsul
Nov $182//$187
Dec $175//$190
Nola
Phys: Nov traded $376; Feb traded $385, $386
Paper:
Nov $370//$375
Dec $373//$380 – traded $378, $375
Jan $377//$382 – traded $380
Feb $380//$390
Mar $390//$405
Dec/Mar spread traded $-17
UAN Nola
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660
Brazil's new fertilizer regulation, effective in September 2025, mandates that mineral fertilizers must now include a label indicating their water-solubility to assure farmers of phosphate availability. This change is based on studies that show many fertilizers with high water solubility are not always the most efficient, and that some lower-solubility fertilizers can perform as well as standard ones. The new labeling requirement is designed to provide consumers with clearer information, while also allowing for more flexible and potentially more efficient product development, notes Revistacultivar.com.
New regulations and solubility
Mandatory labeling: The new rule requires that mineral fertilizers, particularly those containing phosphate, must be labeled with their water solubility.
Assurance for farmers: This labeling is intended to give farmers confidence that the product will provide a readily available source of nutrients, much like traditional simple fertilizers.
Product development and flexibility: The regulation allows for the development of new products that may have lower water-solubility but can still be effective under certain field conditions, especially in tropical soils.
Contradiction to older standards: The new regulation reflects new research which suggests that water solubility is not the only factor determining a fertilizer's effectiveness.
Implementation timeline: Producers have a 45-day window to update their packaging to comply with the new standards.
China Morning Briefing for October 21, 2025,
—
❤ Urea:
Although there is some short-term demand, expectations lack effective bullish support. As a result, downstream buyers mostly procure cautiously based on immediate needs. Manufacturers face sustained pressure in securing new orders, and the domestic urea market is temporarily running with weak fluctuations.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
The supply-demand balance in the synthetic ammonia market is average. Ammonia enterprises that experienced malfunctions or maintenance are gradually resuming operations, leading to renewed supply abundance. Some new orders in the market have declined, and transportation is locally restricted. With urea prices continuing to be weak and a mixed sentiment prevailing, support for the ammonia market is limited. Most operations remain stable but under downward pressure.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the ammonium sulfate market remained stable and in a wait-and-see mode. International new demand is slow to follow up, and the price level of urea under Indian tenders is not ideal, leading to a cooling of domestic transaction sentiment. The ammonium sulfate market is expected to stabilize and adjust in the short term.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market showed no improvement from its weak trend. As weather conditions in the north improve, the pace of compound fertilizer shipments has accelerated. However, due to current low-load operations, the intention to restock ammonium chloride is not high. Enterprises continue to focus on destocking and shipping. In the short term, ammonium chloride prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable trend.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market was mainly stable. Short-term supply tightness supported market confidence, and low-priced sources saw acceptable transactions. However, the persistent weak demand situation is hard to change, resulting in a lack of upward momentum in the market. In the short term, the supply side will maintain current fluctuation levels, and the market will continue to operate in a stalemate and consolidation mode.
❤ Potash Fertilizer:
The domestic potash fertilizer market is relatively stable, with no significant price changes for now. Traders’ quotations remain firm, and the market still lacks sufficient sellable inventory. Currently, the import price for 60% Lao-origin potash is mostly around 3000–3050 yuan/ton. The potassium sulfate market is relatively weak, and manufacturers are not actively shipping.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, raw material sulfur prices surged significantly. Phosphate ammonium enterprises are finding it difficult to lock in costs. Most monoammonium phosphate producers have suspended quotations and order acceptance. Some 55-grade powder is ex-factory at 3300–3350 yuan/ton, subject to actual negotiation. Market inquiries have improved somewhat, and overall demand still needs to be boosted. In the short term, there is a tendency for prices to probe upward, but specific developments still depend on downstream market trends and procurement sentiment.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate quietly. Raw material sulfur prices continued to rise sharply, further increasing cost pressure. However, demand performance has not shown significant improvement. Market trading sentiment remains subdued, with few actual transactions. Industry participants are largely in a wait-and-see mode. In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a stalemate and consolidation.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market mainly operated steadily. With autumn harvest and planting progressing, enterprises are wrapping up autumn fertilizer sales, and some shipments may continue into the end of the month or early next month. The continued rise in sulfur prices provides clear support for sulfur-based fertilizers, and enterprises are cautious in issuing new prices. As for high-nitrogen fertilizers, sporadic trial pricing policies for greening fertilizers and spring corn fertilizers are gradually emerging. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to remain stable with some tentative narrow-range adjustments.
According to news from Stamika Bang in October 2025, Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd.'s latest urea production facility has recently gone into full operation. This facility is one of the largest urea production facilities in China and employs Stamika Bang's proprietary Ultra-Low Energy Consumption (ULE) and granulation technology. This achievement marks an important milestone for this pioneering project. As previously mentioned, Stamika Bang is not only applying the Ultra-Low Energy Consumption principle to the tank-type reactor but also to the tank-type condenser. In February 2021, Jiujiang Xinlianxin began producing 520,000 tons of urea using Stamika Bang's improved CO2 stripper urea technology, marking the first industrial application of Stamika Bang's Ultra-Low Energy Consumption (5XX) technology worldwide. In 2023, Xinxiang Xinlianxin's green manufacturing project also adopted Stamika Bang's 5XX Ultra-Low Energy Consumption urea process for startup operations. Currently, Stamika Bang's Ultra-Energy Consumption urea technology is used by several domestic companies, including Jiujiang Xinlianxin, Sansing Chemical, Xinxiang Xinlianxin, Xinji Energy, Shandong Lianhe, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical, Shandong Runyin, and Jiujiang Xinlianxin. Stamika Bang's Ultra-Efficient Design is part of the NX STAMITM urea product lineup and represents a groundbreaking technology. Through advanced thermal integration technology, steam consumption can be reduced by approximately 35%, and cooling water consumption can be reduced by 16%, making it one of the most energy-efficient urea technologies available.
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According to rumors from the Nitrogen Association:
This week's meeting is considering proposing an increase of 800,000 tons in the export quota for urea, with the possibility of easing restrictions on small-package exports. The details are still being finalized. ……
Here’s a snapshot of the latest developments in key markets:
🇧🇻 Baltic
Granular urea prices edged down to $365-375/t fob, with net backs to Brazil at $370-375/t. Some deals closed in the mid-$370s/t fob, though overall activity was muted as participants await RCF tender results. Freight to Brazil rising to mid $40s/t also weighed on fob levels. Prilled urea dropped to $355-365/t fob, with select deals in the high $360s/t for Brazil. Over 200,000t of urea remains lined up for India’s NFL under the September 2 tender.
🌊 Black Sea
Granular urea fell to $385-400/t fob, reflecting soft European bids. Shipment to RCF seems unlikely due to freight costs (~$50/t). Azerbaijan’s Socar is expected to issue a new sales tender for November loading soon.
🇶🇦 Middle East
Spot granular urea rose to $395-411/t fob, driven by QatarEnergy’s 45,000t sale at $410-411/t for November loading. Freight to India is estimated at $12-13/t (west coast) and $18-19/t (east coast). A total of 479,000t is lined up for India’s NFL.
🇮🇷 Iran
Offers held steady at $367-370/t fob. MIS, Pardis, and KHPC closed multiple tenders for October-November shipments, with minimum prices from $367/t up to $415/t fob for technical-grade urea.
🇪🇬 Egypt
Granular urea for Europe assessed at $425-440/t fob, though thin demand kept actual trades mostly at $435/t or below. Activity may rise following the Argus Fertilizer Europe Conference and RCF tender results.
🇩🇿 Algeria
Quiet market with ~80,000t of granular urea for October loading remaining unsold.
🇳🇬 Nigeria
Dangote sold two 30,000t cargoes in the $390s/t fob Lekki, with previous sales at $400/t fob. Indorama offered 90,000t under RCF’s October 15 tender.
🇨🇳 China
Prilled urea export prices stable at $380-390/t fob. Factories continue shipments that passed CIQ inspections. 1mn t nominated under NFL’s September 2 tender.
🇮🇳 India
RCF tender closed with 3.66mn t offered across east and west coasts. Prices are pending, expected Friday. NFL’s September 2 tender sees 2.03mn t nominated from China, Middle East, SE Asia, Baltic, Egypt, and Nigeria.
🌏 Southeast Asia
Granular urea offers at $410-420/t cfr, prilled $405-410/t cfr. Recent sales include 100,000t in Indonesia and 30,000t in Brunei. End-user demand remains limited.
🇧🇷 Brazil
Granular urea traded at $415-430/t cfr early in the week, easing to $415-425/t later. Deals in northern ports ranged $425-430/t cfr. A major importer reportedly bought 15,000t at $420/t for November shipment.
🔹 Conclusion
Global urea trade continues to be influenced by RCF tender results, freight fluctuations, and regional demand dynamics. Suppliers and buyers are closely monitoring developments as November shipments take shape.
Hearing Russian phosphates have problems. They can’t get enough sulphur for production
ran: Official offer levels for granular urea have been maintained at $367pt fob with producers continuing to offer prompt onwards shipments via tenders.
Recent sales tenders for granular urea are not understood to resulted in business. The majority of bids have been reported no higher than $360pt fob with only insolated interest cited into the $360s pt fob.
Trade Data
China: January-September urea exports were 2.81m. tonnes, well above the 253,000t of exports a year earlier but almost identical to the 2.83m. tonnes exported over the same period in 2023. The main outlet was Mexico with 409,000t, followed by Ethiopia with 273,000t. China and Brazil took 241,000t and 223,000t, respectively. Sri Lanka and Vietnam received 194-197,000t each.
Of note, only 48,000t are listed against India for the year to September. However, far greater volumes are widely reported to have been committed to India under recent tenders.
September was by far the single biggest export month of not only the year with 1.37m. tonnes, but since January 2016. The last time over 1m. tonnes were exported in a single month was in September 2023. The exodus of product during September followed the easing in export restrictions, with this supported by high local operating rates and low domestic prices.
The outlets for September included Mexico with 179,000t and Ethiopia with 156,000t. Another 138,000t were exported to Brazil with the bulk of the remaining volumes for SE Asian markets.
For amsul, January-September exports were 15.15m. tonnes, up 29% or 3.39m. tonnes year on year. The higher exports were a dual function of greater availability on the supply side but also stronger demand from those seeking cheaper nitrogen alternatives to urea.
Exports to Brazil increased by 33% or 1.35m. tonnes to 5.41m. tonnes. Exports to Turkey, Mexico and India were also higher with Turkey taking 749,000t (up 270,000t), India taking 607,000t (up 256,000t) and Mexico taking 484,000t (up 289,000t).
Myanmar remained the second largest export destination following Brazil with 788,000t but this marked the second year of declines, down 158,000t year on year and below the 1.10m. tonnes during 2023. The slowdown in demand from rare earth mining has been the primary contributor to the declines.
During September, 2.25m. tonnes of amsul were exported including 994,000t to Brazil. Myanmar followed with 128,000t along with 121,000t of exports to Lithuania. Another 92,000t were shipped to India. Morocco, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia each took another 62-65,000t.
Iran: Urea exports for January-September were 2.91m. tonnes, down 1.49m. tonnes or 34% year on year in large part due to gas related production cutbacks earlier in the year.
Turkey remained the main outlet with 1.02m. tonnes but this was down 731,000t year on year. Exports to Brazil were also lower at 623,000t, down 387,000t. Exports noted against Oman but widely accepted to be for other destinations were at 412,000t.
Of note, exports to South Africa increased by 166,000t to 317,000t while Argentina took 123,000t.
During September, 384,000t were exported, down 15% or 67,000t on September 2024. Turkey was the main outlet with 206,000t and was followed by 124,000t to Brazil. India was listed as taking 48,000t.
Here’s the table with the text converted to English:
|Commodity Name |September 2025|Year-to-Date Cumulative (Descending)|
|———————————————————————–|————–|————————————|
|Ammonium Sulphate |225.22 |1,514.76 |
|Nitrogen phosphorus binary compound fertilizer |36.68 |388.81 |
|Urea |137.12 |281.23 |
|Diammonium phosphate |38.54 |251.39 |
|Superphosphate with phosphorus content ≤35% |2.80 |157.73 |
|Fertilizer ammonium chloride |10.29 |152.34 |
|Fertilizer made into tablets or weighing ≤10kg per piece |32.28 |148.63 |
|Monoammonium phosphate |20.76 |124.92 |
|Other fertilizers coded HS 31059090 |14.24 |62.63 |
|Nitrogen phosphorus potassium ternary compound fertilizer |2.54 |60.12 |
|Mixtures and compounds of nitrate calcium and nitrate ammonium |6.48 |57.56 |
|Heavy superphosphate |0.05 |40.62 |
|Superphosphate excluding heavy calcium P2O5≥35% |1.00 |24.00 |
|Other mineral nitrogen fertilizer and chemical nitrogen fertilizer |10.06 |20.19 |
|Nitrogen |1.66 |13.01 |
|Fertilizer potassium nitrate |1.96 |10.96 |
|Organic-inorganic mixed fertilizer |0.76 |8.39 |
|Dolomite (not calcined) |1.48 |7.75 |
|Sodium nitrate |0.33 |5.11 |
|Ammonium nitrate, whether aqueous solution or not |0.73 |4.58 |
|Chemically treated animal plant fertilizer |0.35 |4.47 |
|Urea ammonium nitrate solution |0.91 |4.15 |
|Phosphorus potassium binary compound fertilizer |- |4.02 |
|Potassium chloride |0.21 |2.94 |
|Mixtures and compounds of sulfuric acid ammonium and nitrate ammonium |0.09 |1.84 |
|Unchemically treated animal plant fertilizer |0.10 |1.65 |
|Other mineral phosphorus fertilizer and chemical phosphorus fertilizer |0.23 |1.29 |
|Potassium sulfate |0.09 |1.29 |
|Calcium nitrate (ammonium) phosphorus fertilizer |- |0.42 |
|Calcium cyanamide |0.01 |0.18 |
|Mixtures of ammonium nitrate and calcium carbonate equivalent materials|- |0.07 |
|Other mineral potassium fertilizer and chemical potassium fertilizer |0.02 |0.04 |
*Title: China Fertilizer Export Volume Monthly Details (Super Data Complete Version)
Unit:* Ten Thousand Tons <This message was edited>
According to statistics, from January to September 2025, China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, hereinafter referred to as Mainland China) exported a total of 33.363 million tons of various fertilizers, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.4%. Ammonium sulfate was the fertilizer type with the highest cumulative export volume, with 15.1476 million tons exported from January to September.