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European Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Update (Oct 2025):

Europe’s nitrogen fertilizer market is in flux amid shifting trade flows and looming carbon costs. Urea prices have firmed as Europe is in it's import season. Accordingly to news Buyers have snapped up close to 200,000 tonnes of mainly North African urea, allowing Egyptian FOB prices to rise from around $420 to ~$440 per tonne .

Ammonia values remain elevated as well , ammonia delivered to northwest Europe recently surged to its highest level of the year amid production outages . European producers still face high gas and carbon costs, keeping the region reliant on imported ammonia. In anticipation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) rollout in January 2026, many European buyers might have been purchasing early to stock up before carbon costs kick in .

CBAM Impacts: According to Carbon Trust, from 2026 importers will need to purchase CBAM certificates matching the embedded emissions of imported fertilisers, which will increase procurement costs.

Analysis by the Centre for European Reform (CER) estimates that CBAM could reduce EU fertiliser imports by up to 26 %.

The Irish Fertiliser Manufacturers and Blenders Association estimates that for nitrogen fertiliser imports into Ireland, CBAM could add roughly €25-30/tonne next year, with higher levels possible later.
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1. Brazil Potash – final offtake deal achieved
2. MinBos Resources – HOA signed with Talus Renewables
3. PhosCo – EBRD financing option for Tunisia phosphate development
4. Highfield/Agrimin – failed to deliver financing deals

𝗖𝗕𝗔𝗠 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱

Starting January 2026, the European Union will implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — a regulation requiring that imports in sectors such as cement, iron & steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen be either produced through low-carbon processes or pay a levy reflecting their carbon emissions during production.

This mechanism presents two strategic paths for European importers, each with a distinct short-term impact on the phosphate rock market.

𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲
1️⃣ Continue Importing Finished Products (Phosphoric Acid and Phosphate Fertilizers)
In the short term, Europe is likely to keep importing DAP, MAP, and phosphoric acid, while absorbing the cost of carbon levies.
In the long run, however, to reduce expenses, European buyers will increasingly pressure Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers to align with EU low-carbon standards.
This marks the emergence of a new market for green phosphates.

2️⃣ Import Raw Phosphate Rock and Produce Locally
The second option gives Europe direct control over its carbon footprint — importing phosphate rock and producing acid and fertilizers domestically to ensure minimal CO₂ emissions.
But this path is costly: building phosphoric acid facilities and managing phosphogypsum waste requires significant capital investment and strict environmental permitting.

𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁
In the short term (2025–2027), European demand for phosphate rock is expected to rise temporarily, as companies move to secure supply and build inventories ahead of CBAM enforcement.

In the longer term (2028 onward), a new balance will emerge:
Europe will meet part of its needs through domestic production,
while Asian exports to Europe decline.
Overall, global demand may remain stable — but trade flows will shift.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲

CBAM will not only influence the pricing of fertilizers and phosphoric acid, but it will also redraw the global map of phosphate trade.

To minimize their carbon footprint, European producers are likely to source phosphate rock directly and maintain full oversight of the production process.
Meanwhile, North African and Middle Eastern exporters that can provide certified low-carbon (green) phosphates are poised to become the real winners of this transition.

Morning – Physical urea prices continue to improve and remain supported. November Brazil paper found support between $420-$424. Q1 Nola prices for both physical and paper firmed on the day into the low $400’s.

AG
Nov $410//$419
Dec $410//$420
Jan $395//$412
Q1 $410 Offer

Brazil
Nov $415//$423 – traded $420, $424
Dec $416//$421
Jan $405//$415

Egypt
Nov $440//$465
Dec $425//$445

Nola
Phys: Dec traded $398; Jan traded $400. Feb $410. March $412
Paper:
Nov $392//$400
Dec $400//$405 – traded $400, $402, $403
Jan $400//$407 – traded $403, $404
Feb $400//$410
Mar $400//$415

Option: Dec $410 Call traded $6.5

DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $685//$720

MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660

CFR Buenaventura, Colombia is around $550-$560, depending on the volume, kindly help check with your clients if any competitiveness for the market

Vietnamese tech urea :
You can referrence the price as below:
Urea Prilled Uncoated (Biuret 0.9 MAX)
Volume: 500 tons
FOB price: 445$/MT

Urea Prilled Uncoated (Biuret 0.75 MAX)
Volume: 500 tons
FOB price: 455$/MT
Pacakge: Jumbo with pallet.

Confirmed Sight LC by first class bank ‎<This message was edited>

As of October 29, 2025, the total inventory level of China's urea enterprises stood at 1,554,300 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons compared to the previous week, representing a month-over-month decrease of 4.66%. During this period, the inventory levels of urea enterprises shifted from rising to falling. Market sentiment was temporarily boosted by relevant news, leading to the recent release of some previously suppressed demand and appropriate follow-up of certain stockpiling needs. This contributed to a moderate increase in the number of new orders and a rise in the volume of shipments from urea factories. However, after the price increase, the number of new orders started to decline. The provinces with increased inventory levels among the enterprises included: Hainan, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Chongqing. The provinces with decreased inventory levels included: Anhui, Gansu, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang.

Aditya 364 ex PIM (Indonesia)

Morning. Int'l paper saw Nov/Dec AG find value (again) in mid/high $410s y'day, before meeting selling resistance in/around $420. In Nola, Dec paper repeat traded in high-$390s, Feb $405s. Mkts framed:

AG
Nov $414//$418 – traded $419s
Dec $410//$420 – traded $418, $415
Jan $400//$412

Brazil
Nov $417//$428
Dec $418//$422
Jan $405//$415

Egypt
Nov $442//$465
Dec $425//$445

Nola
Phys: Nov-Dec traded $395
Paper:
Nov $392//$400
Dec $394//$400 – traded $398, $398, $398, $396
Jan $395//$408
Feb $400//$410 – traded $405
Mar $400//$415

Option: Dec $400 call traded $10

DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $685//$720

MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660

As of October 29, 2025, the total inventory level of China's urea enterprises stood at 1,554,300 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons compared to the previous week, representing a month-over-month decrease of 4.66%. During this period, the inventory levels of urea enterprises shifted from rising to falling. Market sentiment was temporarily boosted by relevant news, leading to the recent release of some previously suppressed demand and appropriate follow-up of certain stockpiling needs. This contributed to a moderate increase in the number of new orders and a rise in the volume of shipments from urea factories. However, after the price increase, the number of new orders started to decline. The provinces with increased inventory levels among the enterprises included: Hainan, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Chongqing. The provinces with decreased inventory levels included: Anhui, Gansu, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang.

Ammonia Price Hits Fresh Multi-Year High 🚨

The Tampa ammonia contract between Yara and Mosaic has settled at $650/mt CFR for November, a $60 rise from October — marking the highest level since late 2023.

📈 The rally reflects a market tightened by production curbs, especially in Trinidad & Tobago, where gas supply and export challenges are restricting output. Additional maintenance outages in the Middle East and rising freight costs are amplifying supply pressure.

Ammonia prices have now climbed four months in a row, highlighting renewed stress in nitrogen markets and feedstock supply chains.

🔹 Takeaway: Persistent supply disruptions and higher logistics risk suggest continued price volatility into year-end — a key watchpoint for fertilizer producers and industrial buyers alike.

The 2 million tons of urea project at Xinjiang Zhongneng in Hami started trial operations yesterday and is about to produce products.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, Chinese yuan and Australian dollar on Monday as optimism over a possible U.S.-China trade deal boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the greenback.

Overall moves in the currency markets were relatively muted as traders also waited on several key central bank meetings this week.

​U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday the United States and China were set to "come away" with a trade deal. Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week in South Korea.
​
​"The market's kind of euphoric," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, noting strong gains in global stock markets while gold fell.

The markets are cheered by three main developments, Chandler said.

"It looks like the U.S. and China moved away from the brink. The U.S. struck foreign trade deals or frameworks with some East Asian countries, and Milei did better in Argentina," Chandler said, referring to the president of the South American country.

​Argentine President Javier Milei's party cruised to victory in midterm legislative elections as voters handed him a mandate to keep pushing through his overhaul of the economy.

The dollar index was last down 0.11% at 98.84, with the euro up 0.15% at $1.1643.

Central banks may dominate market direction later this week, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada expected to cut rates on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on Thursday are likely to leave rates unchanged.

With a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut long priced in, markets will closely watch for any signs that the central bank may be preparing to wind down its quantitative tightening program.

The Chinese yuan was also boosted by the People's Bank of China setting the official yuan midpoint rate higher than expected. Prior to the market open, it set the official yuan midpoint rate at 7.0881 per dollar, the strongest since October 15, 2024, and above a Reuters estimate of 7.1146.

Chris Turner, global head of forex research at ING, said in a report that the move may be a gesture of goodwill ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, or a sign that China wants to boost its domestic demand.

"Either way, a stronger renminbi is normally supportive for global EM (emerging market) currencies and a mild dollar negative," Turner said.

The Chinese offshore yuan rose to a more than one-month high against the dollar of 7.1015.

The Australian dollar was last up 0.63% versus the greenback at $0.6554. The Australian currency was also boosted by relatively hawkish comments from the country's central bank head.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said on Monday a rise in core inflation of 0.9% in the third quarter would be a "material miss" to forecasts that would have to be weighed by the board when judging whether to cut interest rates next week.

Traders are also focused on a meeting on Tuesday between Trump and Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where the two leaders will discuss trade issues.

The Japanese currency has weakened in recent weeks on concerns that Takaichi will implement more expansionary fiscal policies.

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar was roughly flat on the day at 152.92 yen.

Investors are further watching for any indication on when the U.S. federal government will reopen, with the U.S. economy expected to take a bigger hit the longer the shutdown goes on.

Air travel turmoil deepened with more than 2,700 flights delayed nationwide on Monday and more than 8,600 delays on Sunday, with air traffic controller absences surging amid a federal government shutdown now in its 27th day.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.82% to $115,454.

Morning. Int'l paper remained supported y'day – Nov/Dec cfr Brazil values moved up into the $420s, while Nov AG held value at $418. In Nola, Nov/Dec prices firmed up $5-$10 from Fri, as Dec paper traded to $400 before meeting resistance.

AG
Nov $415//$425 – traded $418
Dec $412//$425
Jan $400//$410

Brazil
Nov $420//$430 – traded $425
Dec $425//$430 – traded $420
Jan $405//$415

Egypt
Nov $442//$465
Dec $425//$445

Nola
Paper:
Nov $391//$397 – traded $390, $392, $395, $397
Dec $390//$400 – traded $400, $395
Jan $395//$408
Feb $405//$415
Mar $405//$420

DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $685//$720

MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660

𝐍𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚'𝐬 𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐃𝐑𝐀𝐌𝐀! 🎭🌾

Just wrapped up the Jan-Sep numbers, and folks, this is better than a Bollywood thriller! Let me break down what's been cooking in the fields of India… 🍿

🚢 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐀𝐒𝐈𝐎𝐍:

Remember when we used to "Make in India"? Well, September 2025 said "Shop from Everywhere!"

• Urea imports? Up 𝟓𝟐𝟑% (yes, you read that right!🤯)
• NP/NPK? A casual 𝟔𝟖𝟓% jump (someone's credit card is smoking!)
• DAP joined the party with +𝟏𝟑𝟐%

We basically turned into the Amazon Prime of fertilizers! 📦

𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤: We've doubled down on imports across the board – Urea +101%, DAP +77%, NP/NPK +85%. Our ports are busier than Mumbai traffic! 🚢

📊 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐖𝐈𝐍𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐒' 𝐂𝐈𝐑𝐂𝐋𝐄:

Not everything's doom and gloom! Some fertilizers are absolutely CRUSHING it:

• SSP Sales: +𝟐𝟕% 𝐘𝐓𝐃
• MOP: +𝟐𝟓% 𝐘𝐓𝐃
• NP/NPK: +𝟏𝟐% 𝐘𝐓𝐃 
• Urea: +𝟔% 𝐘𝐓𝐃 
• DAP: +𝟐𝟏%

📉 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐎𝐗:

Here's where it gets spicy… While sales are up, production is playing hard to get:

• Urea production: -𝟓% 𝐘𝐓𝐃
• DAP production: -𝟏𝟑% 𝐘𝐓𝐃

𝐁𝐔𝐓 𝐖𝐀𝐈𝐓!

• NP/NPK production: +𝟐𝟎% 𝐘𝐓𝐃 (The overachiever!🌟)
• SSP production: +𝟏𝟖% 𝐘𝐓𝐃 (Quietly dominating!⚡)

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲:
✅ NP/NPK: +𝟏𝟓% (Making moves! 💼)
✅ SSP: +𝟏𝟎% (Consistent performer! 🔥)
❌ Urea & DAP: Slight dips (Taking a breather!)

🎢 𝐒𝐄𝐏𝐓𝐄𝐌𝐁𝐄𝐑'𝐒 𝐖𝐈𝐋𝐃 𝐑𝐈𝐃𝐄:

September 2025 was the month of extremes – buckle up!

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝:
✅ DAP sales: +𝟐𝟏% (Party time!)
✅ NP/NPK production: +𝟏𝟓% (Factories working overtime!)
✅ SSP production: +𝟏𝟎% (Steady Eddie!)
✅ Import explosion across the board! 🚀

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐭-𝐒𝐨-𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝:
❌ NP/NPK sales: -𝟑𝟎% (Ouch!)
❌ Urea sales: -𝟏𝟗% (Post-monsoon blues?)
❌ MOP sales: -𝟏𝟕% (Taking a breather!)
❌ DAP production: -𝟏𝟔% (Supply squeeze!)
❌ SSP sales: -𝟕% (Minor dip!)

🎯 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐈𝐆 𝐏𝐈𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐄 – 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 (𝐉𝐚𝐧-𝐒𝐞𝐩 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓):

Total market: 48.9 MT of fertilizer goodness feeding India! 🌾

• 𝐔𝐫𝐞𝐚: 𝟓𝟕.𝟒% (Still the undisputed king! 👑)
• 𝐍𝐏/𝐍𝐏𝐊: 𝟐𝟎.𝟗% (The rising star! ⭐)
• 𝐃𝐀𝐏: 𝟏𝟎.𝟗% (Holding strong! 💪)
• 𝐒𝐒𝐏: 𝟕.𝟒% (The dark horse! 🐴)
• 𝐌𝐎𝐏: 𝟑.𝟑% (Small but mighty! 💎)