Kenya has launched an $800 million green ammonia fertiliser project at Olkaria, Naivasha (Nakuru County), a joint venture between China’s Kaishan Group and the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen). President William Ruto led the groundbreaking ceremony on 3 November 2025, marking the start of Africa’s first geothermal-powered ammonia plant.
The facility will use 165 MW of geothermal energy to power ammonia synthesis via the Haber–Bosch process, producing up to 480,000 tonnes of fertiliser annually, according to President Ruto. Depending on downstream configuration, output could include urea, AmSul , and CAN or some configuration of these nitrogen fertilizers.
Mitsubishi to build $1.3 billion urea plant in Turkmenistan
🇯🇵 Japan's #Mitsubishi has begun construction on a large urea plant in Turkmenistan, estimated to cost over $1.3 billion, a source in the Turkmen chemical industry told Reuters on Monday.
Construction of the plant at Kiyanly, on the Caspian Sea coast in the country's far west, is scheduled for completion in 2028-2029, the source said.
They added that the plant is planned to produce 3,500 tons of urea daily, alongside 2,000 tons of ammonia. Turkey's Gap Inşaat has been awarded the construction contract.
There was no immediate comment from Mitsubishi outside working hours.
Turkmenistan, which holds the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves and sells primarily to China, is currently seeking to diversify its economy away from gas exports.
A similar project worth over $1.3 billion was launched in 2018 by a Japanese-Turkish consortium in Garabogaz, not far from the planned new facility.
➡️ Turkmenistan's total granular urea capacity now stands at 2.25-2.3 million tons per year, with the Turkmenbashi project (1.155 million tons annually) set to come online by 2029. This expansion aligns with global fertilizer demand trends, particularly in Europe, where energy security concerns are driving a shift toward diversified supply sources.
Morning. Thin activity to start the week – Int'l paper generally saw more offers y'day, with bids slightly quiet. In Nola, Jan barges traded $402-$400, after which sellers looked to repeat. Mkts framed:
AG
Nov $415//$420
Dec $415//$420
Jan $400//$415
Q1 $410 Offer
cfr Brazil
Nov $420//$427
Dec $416//$422
Jan $400//$411
Egypt
Nov $455//$475
Dec $440//$460
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $402, $400
Paper:
Nov $394//$400
Dec $395//$405
Jan $395//$405
Feb $400//$410
Mar $400//$415
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660
Rabobank: Global fertilizer markets are entering a new phase of contraction, as rising prices begin to weigh on demand. This shift, first signaled in our April outlook, is now clearly reflected in the continued decline of the fertilizer affordability index. While some regions still show signs of resilience, the broader trend points to weakening demand in 2025 and a more pronounced downturn in 2026.
The 12-month moving average of the affordability index has moved deeper into negative territory, confirming the start of a new downcycle. This phase closely resembles the previous contraction, suggesting that the market is entering a prolonged period of reduced consumption.
Regionally, market dynamics remain volatile. In the US, geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs are expected to disrupt the upcoming season. European prices are likely to rise with the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In Brazil, farmers face tight margins and limited access to credit, although fertilizer deliveries could reach record levels in 2025. China is prioritizing domestic supply, while India continues to play a central role in global urea trade, influencing prices with each new tender.
Urea consumption is forecast to decline in 2026, following a sharp price increase that has already triggered demand contraction – particularly in Brazil, where farmers are shifting to ammonium sulphate. Phosphate prices remain high, leading to an expected 4% drop in global consumption in 2025, with further declines anticipated in 2026. Chinese exports have fallen, while shipments from Morocco and Saudi Arabia have increased. However, overall trade volumes remain subdued.
Potash demand, which rebounded in 2024 due to lower prices, is likely to slow again in 2025 as prices rise. Brazil’s plans for record imports may partially offset declines elsewhere, but if elevated prices persist, global demand is expected to fall in 2026.
Accelerated adoption of precision agtech: Up to a 5 percent decrease in 2040 volumes
Precision agriculture uses data analytics (including machine learning and AI), geospatial data, and various sensors to optimize the application of fertilizers, ensuring crops receive the exact nutrients they need, when they need them, and where they need them. Precision agriculture techniques include on-field soil sensors, variable-rate fertilizer and pesticide application, and sprayer section controls. Today, 20 to 30 percent of farmers globally have adopted precision agriculture hardware, and an additional 5 percent of farmers anticipate adopting it in the next two years.3 This technology has the potential to reduce overall fertilizer volumes by up to 5 percent, driving increased application efficiency without compromising on yields and reducing input costs for farmers.
Accelerated adoption of next-gen inputs: A 5 to 10 percent decrease in 2040 volumes
Next-gen inputs, particularly biological alternatives such as biostimulants, have the potential to offset commodity fertilizer usage. Biostimulants include products such as nitrogen-fixing biologicals, beneficial bacteria and fungi, organic acids (for example, humic and fulvic acid), protein hydrolystates (for example, amino acids), and seaweed extracts and botanicals. Biostimulants have the potential to increase the availability of nutrients to crops, with the aspiration of higher yields and lower environmental costs. They also can play a role in reducing emissions, particularly compared to nitrogen fertilizers, given that they do not require ammonia production in their manufacturing and have lower on-farm emissions profiles. Today, many farmers are trialing biostimulants in combination with their traditional-fertilizer protocol. Approximately 20 percent of farmers globally have already adopted biostimulants, and an additional 6 percent anticipate adopting them in the next two years.4 In the United States, nitrogen-fixing biologicals are the most commonly adopted of all biostimulant products5 because these products are designed to directly offset synthetic N fertilizer needs. As adoption of these products continues to rise and their impact is proved, there is a potential to reduce 2040 volumes by 5 to 10 percent if farmers offset their commodity fertilizer needs with biologicals.
Rising regulation in agriculture: Up to a 5 percent decrease in 2040 volumes
Agriculture contributes approximately 15 percent to global emissions, with N fertilizers alone accounting for approximately 3 percent of this total due to manufacturing and on-farm emissions.6 Around the world, organizations in the public and private sectors are increasingly focusing on environmental sustainability and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the EU Green Deal sets targets for reducing fertilizer use and increasing organic farmland, although McKinsey analysis suggests progress toward these targets is lagging behind. Industry players, particularly consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, are setting Scope 3 emission targets to make their supply chains more sustainable. This includes increased attention on the volume and types of fertilizer applied, as well as greater emphasis on regenerative agriculture practices. Such commitments from CPG companies can have cascading effects down to the farmer level, even without government regulation. Enhanced regulations aimed at decarbonizing agriculture could reduce fertilizer volumes by up to 5 percent.
Increasing application rates in Africa: Up to a 5 percent increase in 2040 volumes
As farmers in Africa gain better access to fertilizers and other agricultural inputs—through both increased farmer profitability and improving global supply chains—there is an opportunity for application rates in Africa to grow toward global averages. Today, the average combined application rate across N, P, and K nutrients in Africa (Morocco and South Africa) is about 120 kilograms (kg) per hectare, compared with about 135 kg per hectare globally. If farmers in Africa were to apply fertilizer more in line with the global application rate, which is still lower than that of Brazil, the European Union, or the United States, this would increase global fertilizer volumes by up to 5 percent in 2040.
Declining application rates in China and India: A 5 to 10 percent decrease in 2040 volumes
China and India have historically applied more fertilizers than the rest of the world. This is due to a number of factors, including the larger share of small shareholder farmers, who tend to overapply fertilizers due to lack of other inputs, such as high-tech machinery; a need to feed a growing domestic population; and subsidies for fertilizer use. For example, nitrogen-use efficiency in China is about 40 percentage points less than in the United States,7 and excess phosphorus use is about 21 percent in India and 30 percent in China, compared with only about 6 percent in the United States.8 As a result, China’s and India’s application rates are about 30 kg per hectare higher for N and P and about ten kg per hectare higher for K than the world average. China, in particular, has made strides to reduce overuse of fertilizers with the 2015 Five Year Plan, successfully reducing fertilizer consumption about 12 percent by 2020.9 If China and India moved to reduce application rates to be more in line with global averages, it could lead to a reduction in fertilizer volumes by 5 to 10 percent.
Increasing soil degradation: A change in 2040 volumes ranging from a 10 percent decrease to a 10 percent increase
Soil degradation caused by aridity, salinization, erosion, and increasing organic carbon levels could disrupt the efficiency with which nutrients are delivered to crops within the soil matrix and put downward pressure on crop yields. This could affect fertilizer use in varying ways. To offset declining soil health, farmers may need to apply more nutrients to uphold yields, increasing the demand for fertilizers by more than 10 percent. However, increasing soil degradation could have the opposite effect, reducing the overall yield potential of soils such that applying more nutrients alone will not be able to offset other degradation factors. If so, soil degradation could actually result in a decrease in 2040 volumes of more than 10 percent because applying additional fertilizer with no yield benefits would be unprofitable for farmers.
Shifting land use: Up to a 5 percent decrease in 2040 volumes
As global demand for food, livestock, and fuel grows and as rising global temperatures shift global weather patterns, land use is expected to shift, causing a projected decline in overall fertilizer volumes. Major drivers include a decline in overall yield potential, which most often cannot be overcome with higher application rates. It is possible that diets could shift away from animal proteins, resulting in lower animal feed requirements, and increasing demand for biofuels could create higher demand for bioenergy crops.10
Potential drivers of supply swings
While the focus of this analysis is on demand disruptions, markets will undoubtedly be further shaped by a number of critical supply side drivers. In particular, we anticipate seeing the following: increased raw material volatility; shifting global supply chains, especially as blue and green ammonia11 production rises; increased sustainability pressures on manufacturers; shifting geopolitics affecting global trade; and an increased push toward self-sufficiency in some regions, especially Brazil, China, and India. These trends will all increase global competition, putting increased importance on each participant’s position on the cost curve to protect margins.
Strategic considerations for industry players
Because these trends have potential to cause sizable swings in demand, leaders in crop nutrition should consider some questions to best position their businesses in a changing world:
How do players continue to protect their position on the cost curve, especially players on the right of the cost curve? How could potential demand shortfalls affect plans to build incremental capacity?
How do players innovate their product and service portfolios to lock in volumes in a competitive environment (for example, expanding into specialty fertilizers or partnering with precision agriculture players to offer agronomic services)?
How do players enhance their go-to-market strategy with data and analytics to be hypertargeted in markets where growth is anticipated (for example, Africa)?
How do players invest in sustainability to protect profits in a regulation- and sustainability-conscious future? How will soil health play into the future environmental landscape?
How do players optimize procurement in a world of changing inputs (for example, blue and green ammonia) and shifting geopolitics?
In the last 3 months, approximately 300,000 tons of fertilizers have entered Romania.
My opinion is that in the next 2 months there will be a record of fertilizers that will enter the port of Constanta in the last 5 years and due to the CBAM tax.
CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) is a mechanism of the European Union which aims to tax carbon emissions associated with products imported into the EU — including fertilizers.
The goal is to avoid „relocation of emissions” – that is, companies not to move production to countries where there are no carbon taxes.
We have a problem about this because it is not a fixed amount.We do not now know what its value is.That will certainly put a strain on the sale of nitrogen fertilizers in January.
A small history of this tax:
In the transitional period (2023-2025), importers only have to report quarterly CO₂ emissions associated with imported products (without payment).
Starting 1 January 2026, fertilizer importers will have to buy and hand over CBAM certificates, which cover greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, N₂O, etc.) generated in the production process.
There is a „fixed fee” — value depends on:
Amount of emissions (tonnes CO₂e) associated with the imported fertiliser;
Price of carbon credits from the European ETS system (Emissions Trading System).
in 2024-2025, the carbon price in the EU varied between 60 – 90 €/tonne CO₂.
If a fertiliser has an emission intensity of 1 tonne CO₂ per tonne of product, the additional cost could be approximately:
60 – 90 € / tonne of imported fertilizer.
For some products (urea, ammonium nitrate, etc.), estimates vary between 10 – 100 € / ton, depending on the production process and the energy source used.
Exceptions and adjustments
If the exporting country has its own carbon taxation system, the amount paid there may be deducted in part from the CBAM duty.
If the importer does not provide accurate emission data, default values („default values”) will apply, usually higher — so more expensive.
Countries that have EU-compatible or low-emission national carbon price systems (renewable energy, clean technologies) are the most highly-earned and sought after in the coming period.
I'd bet on a 20-dollar tax on nitrogen fertilizer from January 😉
Fertilizer Outlook: Global Risks, Higher Costs, Tighter Margins
TOPICS
fertilizer
Faith Parum
Economist
Fertilizer costs are having a bigger and bigger impact on farm budgets. In the lead-up to the 2022 crop year, fertilizer prices surged to record highs, driven by tight global supplies, energy shocks and trade disruptions. That period became a turning point in how farmers and policymakers thought about farm input risks. Fertilizer prices eased somewhat in 2023 and 2024 as energy markets stabilized and supply chains recovered, but price volatility is at the forefront once again.
While prices today remain below the extreme peaks of 2022, prices for several key fertilizers are climbing higher. Phosphate fertilizers are leading the increase, while nitrogen products are showing month-to-month swings, and potash is rising due to trade policy risks. At the same time, the share of fertilizer within total farm production costs has not returned to earlier highs because other expenses are also climbing. Livestock expenses, electricity, cash labor, interest, rent and property taxes are among the categories showing notable increases in 2025, adding to the overall pressure on farm budgets. Farmers are facing a familiar challenge: building budgets and making planting decisions with unpredictable fertilizer markets. This Market Intel updates current price levels, revisits the drivers of fertilizer markets and explores what they mean for 2026 farm planning.
Current Fertilizer Prices
Phosphates have had the sharpest price increase this year. Gulf diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices rose from about $583 per ton in January 2025 to nearly $800 in August. That is a 36% increase in less than eight months, creating new strain for already struggling crop budgets. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has followed a similar trend, reflecting the same pressures in production costs and export availability.
Nitrogen markets have been mixed but still volatile. Urea prices rose sharply into the summer before easing modestly. Tampa ammonia settlements reached about $487 per metric ton in August and market indications suggest higher prices in September. Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) solutions have shown regional variation, with tighter supplies in areas farther from production hubs and import terminals, while regions closer to key river or rail transport routes have had more consistent availability. These swings highlight how quickly nitrogen prices can change in response to global trade and natural gas markets.
Potash prices are also rising compared to last year. Global spot values hover around $350 to $360 per metric ton, which is about 21% higher than in 2024.U.S. wholesale prices have been further supported by concerns over tariff actions on Canadian imports. Currently, potash imports from Canada are subject to a 10% tariff.
While none of these prices are as severe as the extreme highs recorded in 2022, the upward direction in 2025 is a reminder that fertilizer markets remain in flux and sensitive to global developments.
What’s Driving Fertilizer Prices
Trade and Policy Actions
Global trade policy is directly shaping fertilizer markets. On July 1, the European Union began applying tariffs on Russian fertilizer imports. This move redirected Russian supplies toward other markets such as Brazil, India and potentially the United States. The shift tightened availability in other markets and supported global prices.
In North America, U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods have drawn attention because of the potential impact on potash. Canada supplies the vast majority of U.S. potash imports. Even without direct restrictions, the perception of risk has lifted U.S. wholesale values, creating uncertainty for farm buyers.
China has also played a central role. Early in 2025, the Chinese government restricted phosphate and urea exports to protect domestic supplies. Those policies sharply reduced global availability and contributed to higher prices. In July, China allowed more fertilizer exports after previously keeping shipments very restricted. While that briefly increased global supplies, China often changes its export rules with little notice, creating uncertainty for buyers and sellers worldwide. Each policy shift ripples quickly through international prices and eventually into farm budgets.
Structural Supply Risks
Importantly, fertilizer markets are shaped not only by short-term shocks but also by long-term structural risks. The industry is highly concentrated: a small number of countries dominate nitrogen, phosphate and potash production, leaving supply chains exposed to geopolitical or logistical disruptions. Investments in new ammonia capacity are concentrated in countries with low-cost gas and in decarbonization hubs like the U.S., Qatar and Nigeria. Europe, in contrast, has seen permanent fertilizer plant closures due to high energy costs.
Potash supply is concentrated in just a few regions, with Canada, Russia and Belarus accounting for more than two-thirds of world exports. Phosphate production is dominated by Morocco, China and Saudi Arabia. For nitrogen, natural gas supply (which is a key component in nitrogen fertilizer) remains the critical bottleneck. These structural dynamics mean that geopolitical events, from sanctions on Russia to unrest in the Middle East, carry outsized impacts on farm input costs worldwide.
Annual Convention 2026
Geopolitical Pressures: Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East
The Russia–Ukraine conflict remains a defining backdrop for fertilizer trade. Russia is a top exporter of nitrogen, phosphate and potash, while Belarus, aligned with Russia, is another major potash supplier. Sanctions and shipping restrictions from other countries continue to complicate trade. Although Russia has rerouted fertilizer to markets like Brazil and India, ammonia exports remain more than 80% below pre-war levels. Ukraine’s domestic production has been severely disrupted, further tightening global availability. Ukraine typically produces nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly ammonium nitrate, urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN), and urea.
In the Middle East, rising tensions between Israel and Iran have raised risks of regional disruption. The area is critical for global natural gas and ammonia production, as well as containing shipping routes like the Suez Canal that connect fertilizer producers in North Africa and the Gulf with European and American buyers. Morocco and Saudi Arabia are also expanding phosphate capacity, making the region even more important for global supply security. Any instability that interrupts these flows can amplify the price pressures farmers already face.
Energy Markets
Energy remains a critical factor in fertilizer prices because natural gas is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. In the United States, natural gas prices are projected to rise into late 2025 and 2026 as liquefied natural gas export capacity grows. That means the baseline cost of producing ammonia, urea and UAN is higher than it was in early 2024, when gas was relatively cheap.
In Europe, natural gas prices are far below the crisis levels of 2022 but still remain volatile. Weather, storage levels and liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments all influence prices. A cold winter or disruptions in LNG supply could quickly push European gas prices higher, forcing producers to raise ammonia and urea prices that flow into the global market.
Taken together, geopolitical conflict, trade restrictions, and rising energy costs explain why fertilizer markets remain high and volatile despite the absence of the extreme energy shock of 2022.
Impact on Farmers
The return of higher fertilizer prices has direct consequences for farm finances. As of late 2025, fertilizer costs are trending above last year’s levels and are expected to remain elevated into 2026. This increase comes at a time when crop receipts are shrinking, especially in major row crops, leaving farmers with thinner, even negative, margins.
Volatility is also expected to be a defining feature of the months ahead. Seasonal swings in natural gas markets during the winter, coupled with shifting Chinese export policies, are likely to create added price uncertainty in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Markets can change direction quickly, making it difficult for producers to anticipate input costs with certainty.
These higher fertilizer costs ripple beyond individual purchasing decisions and tie directly into broader farm income trends. USDA projections show overall production expenses rising in 2025, with fertilizer and lime counting for 7% of production expenses. At the same time, crop revenues are falling, a dynamic that compounds financial pressure on farmers. The result is an extreme squeeze on margins that is more pronounced for row crops, where nutrient requirements and production costs per acre are higher.
The combined effect of higher expenses and lower revenues is contributing to warnings of stress in the farm economy. Even though conditions differ across regions and commodities, the overarching pattern is clear: farmers are entering another year in which volatile markets and tight, or negative, margins reduce their ability to accommodate rising costs.
Conclusion
Fertilizer markets in 2025 look different than they did in 2022 but carry the same message for farmers: input costs remain highly volatile. Instead of being driven mainly by energy shortages and shipping bottlenecks, today’s increases are rooted in trade uncertainty, natural gas trends and regional conflicts. Concentration of supply in a handful of countries means that geopolitical risk has become a permanent feature of fertilizer markets. Fertilizer markets illustrate how global geopolitics directly influence U.S. farmers’ bottom lines. The war in Ukraine continues to limit reliable exports, while tensions in the Middle East inject risk into global phosphate and natural gas supplies. For the farm economy, the year ahead points to another period of tight, or negative, margins shaped as much by input costs as by falling crop prices. The combination of higher expenses and weaker crop revenues is expected to weigh on overall net farm income, particularly for row crop producers. Fertilizer remains one of the largest and most volatile expenses for crop production, meaning even modest swings in price can alter the outlook for profitability.
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To all those who are interested in macf or CBAM fertilizer, the scenario was written in 2024 (there is however an error in the impact on added value, in my opinion)
Adopted in 2023 as part of the Fit for 55 package, the CBAM is due to enter into full force on 1 January 2026.
Agricultural and agri-food products (cereals, oilseeds, sugar, oils, meat, etc.) are not currently part of it, even when grown with high-carbon inputs.
Thus, imported foodstuffs made from carbon fertilizers will not have to pay the carbon tax, while their European equivalents, produced with the same inputs, will see their costs increase.
This asymmetry creates a structural competitiveness bias to the detriment of European agriculture.
Nitrogen: an invisible but central link in the system
Vegetable proteins contain an average of 16% nitrogen
To obtain 6 kg of plant protein, about 1 kg of nitrogen is needed by the plant – mainly in the form of mineral fertiliser in non-legume systems.
The majority of the nitrogen contained in cereals therefore comes from mineral fertilisers; only legumes obtain a significant part of atmospheric nitrogen by symbiotic fixation.
However, the CBAM does not track nitrogen at the molecular level: it taxes CO₂ and N₂O emissions related to fertilizer production, but not the nitrogen content of imported agricultural products.
As a result, an imported cereal (from outside the EU) produced with carbonaceous urea completely escapes carbon pricing.
The EU thus shifts emissions out of its territory without any overall climate gain – a "diluted" carbon leakage effect through the nitrogen cycle.
The CBAM reflects a commendable political will for global decarbonization, but its current application creates a major economic and logistical imbalance.
It taxes European inputs (at a level that is unbearable for farmers, taxation of 10% to 50% on nitrogen fertilisers) without covering the imported products that depend on them, thus weakening farmers and accelerating indirect carbon leakage.
As long as the CBAM does not take into account the complete nitrogen cycle,
it will remain an administratively coherent tool (in progress ….) but agronomically incomplete
Morning. Urea paper values trending higher last week – Int'l paper focused on Nov/Dec AG and Brazil, while Nola saw support extend into Q1 months. Mkts framed close of week:
AG
Nov $417//$425
_[Nov traded $418-$419 last week]_
Dec $418//$425 – traded $422 Fri
_[Dec traded $415-$422 range l/w]_
Jan $400//$415
Q1 $410 Offer
cfr Brazil
Nov $422//$427
_[Nov traded $420-$430 range l/w]_
Dec $417//$423
_[Dec traded $420-21 l/w]_
Jan $408//$413
Egypt
Nov $445//$470
Dec $435//$460
Nola
Phys: Dec traded $400
Paper:
Nov $394//$400
_[Nov traded $390-$400 l/w]_
Dec $398//$405
_[Dec traded $390-$404 l/w]_
Jan $400//$407
_[Jan traded $395-$405 l/w]_
Feb $403//$410 – traded $407 Fri
_[Feb traded $405-$415 l/w]_
Mar $400//$415
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660
🚨𝐈𝐍𝐃𝐈𝐀'𝐒 𝐃𝐀𝐏 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐀𝐋𝐄𝐑𝐓: 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 $𝟕𝟑𝟎/𝐭 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐫 – 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭? 📉
The #Indian DAP market is flashing red signals, and if you're in the fertilizer #business, you need to pay attention. We've just witnessed a dramatic price collapse that's reshaping the entire #Rabi season outlook.
Let me break down what's happening…
𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐄 𝐂𝐑𝐀𝐒𝐇: India's DAP prices have entered free fall mode:
📍𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐂𝐑𝐔 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭: $𝟕𝟐𝟓-𝟕𝟐𝟖/𝐭 𝐂𝐅𝐑 (down from mid-$750s just 2 weeks ago!)
📍Market Whispers: Mid $710s/t CFR offers circulating
📍Next Target: Sub-$700/t expected in early November?
For Recent Deals: 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭 – https://lnkd.in/g4T5hQis (CRU)
𝐃𝐀𝐏 𝐬𝐚𝐰 𝐚 $𝟐𝟓-𝟑𝟎/𝐭 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐢𝐧 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝟏𝟒 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬!
𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓'𝐒 𝐃𝐑𝐈𝐕𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐂𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐏𝐒𝐄?
𝑰𝑵𝑽𝑬𝑵𝑻𝑶𝑹𝒀 𝑶𝑽𝑬𝑹𝑳𝑶𝑨𝑫:
Opening #November stocks: 𝟐.𝟒𝟓-𝟐.𝟔 𝐌𝐭 (nearly DOUBLE last year's 1.2-1.3 Mt!)
Port #stocks: 𝟔𝟓𝟗,𝟎𝟎𝟎𝐭 (down 11% WoW, but still elevated)
September imports: 𝟖𝟖𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎𝐭 (↑132% YoY)
October arrivals: 𝟏.𝟎𝟑 𝐌𝐭 (↑27% YoY)
𝑺𝑼𝑩𝑺𝑰𝑫𝒀 𝑺𝑯𝑶𝑪𝑲:
Cabinet approved 𝐈𝐍𝐑𝟑𝟕𝟗.𝟓𝟐 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ($𝟒.𝟑𝐁) for Rabi 2025-26
BUT 𝐃𝐀𝐏 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐲 𝐂𝐔𝐓 𝟓%: INR29,805/t (down from INR31,300/t)
Special package of INR3,500/t NOT provided yet
4% importer margin under review (margin compression fears!)
𝑾𝑬𝑨𝑲 𝑫𝑶𝑴𝑬𝑺𝑻𝑰𝑪 𝑫𝑬𝑴𝑨𝑵𝑫:
Offtake lagging despite massive imports
Farmers waiting for better prices or #subsidy clarity
Alternative nutrients/blended fertilizers gaining traction
⚠️𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐄𝐑𝐅𝐄𝐂𝐓 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑𝐌:
𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬: Landed costs may not be viable under revised NBS framework
– Margin compression threatening #profitability
– Traders refusing speculative positions (who can blame them?)
– Fresh bookings delayed in anticipation of further declines
𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐅𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬: Subsidy cut reduces affordability
-Uncertainty over INR3,500/t special package
-May shift to alternative nutrient sources
𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬: Rapid price #erosion ($750s → sub-$730 in 2 weeks)
-Mounting pressure to clear inventory
-Risk of sub-$700/t becoming the new normal
Morning. Further gains on Brazil and AG paper y'day following higher Int'l physical reports. Nola also traded at new recent highs in the morning, while Nov paper found support around $400 in the afternoon session. Mkts framed:
AG
Nov $417//$425
Dec $415//$425 – traded $418
Jan $397//$415
Q1 $412 Offer
cfr Brazil
Nov $427//$433 – traded $427, $430, $430
Dec $417//$425 – traded $420, $421
Jan $405//$415
Egypt
Nov $445//$470
Dec $430//$455
Nola
Phys: Feb $410, $413; March $412
Paper:
Nov $397//$402 – traded $400
Dec $400//$407 – traded $403, $404
Jan $403//$410 – traded $405
Feb $405//$415 – traded $410, $413, $415
Mar $405//$420
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $685//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $630//$660
China domestic market: 31 Oct 2025
Phosphate Rock:
The price fluctuation of phosphate rock is limited. Currently, mining companies and ports hold a certain amount of inventory, and overall supply pressure is controllable. However, downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises are cautious in their rigid-demand procurement due to high raw material prices and weak follow-up demand, resulting in a decline in industry operating rates. As the mining suspension period approaches, some winter storage stocking orders are gradually emerging, and the market procurement pace is accelerating.
Agricultural Ammonium Phosphate:
Yesterday, port prices for raw material sulfur hit a new high again, with costs continuously rising, affecting market sentiment for monoammonium phosphate (MAP). Supply is tightening, and prices are trending upward. Reportedly, Hubei 55 powder MAP at 3400 yuan/ton ex-factory is becoming increasingly difficult to find. With raw material prices still rising, prices may continue to climb in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market remained in a wait-and-see mode. Raw material prices continued to rise sharply, increasing production cost pressures. Most enterprises are not quoting prices, demand remains flat, and downstream procurement is mainly on an as-needed basis. The market is largely waiting for policy guidance, and short-term market trends will likely continue to consolidate.
Industrial Grade Monoammonium Phosphate:
Yesterday, the industrial-grade MAP market operated steadily. The mainstream market average price for domestic 73% industrial-grade MAP was around 5950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations on a case-by-case basis. Factories maintained operations, mainly fulfilling pending orders. Enterprises suspended quotations and contracts, market prices edged up slightly, and transaction pace slowed. In the short term, industrial MAP prices are stable with slight increases. Future trends depend on downstream demand and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus spot market remained stable at high levels. Major manufacturers in Yunnan and Sichuan mostly withheld external sales below 22,000 yuan/ton, maintaining firm pricing and reluctance to sell. In Guizhou, major manufacturers quoted firmly at 22,200–22,300 yuan/ton. As the end of the month approaches, cost expectations are rising, and traders are moderately following up. Downstream buyers are making small, rigid-demand purchases. Low-priced goods are hard to find, and a few new orders are driving high prices to be realized. Prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, sulfur prices continued to rise, pushing sulfuric acid prices up. Wet-process purified phosphoric acid producers are facing increased cost pressures. Reports indicate that mainstream large wet-process phosphoric acid producers adjusted prices continuously during the week, increasing market wait-and-see sentiment. After rebounding, thermal-process phosphoric acid prices stabilized. In the short term, the market is watching upstream raw material trends. In Sichuan, thermal-process purified phosphoric acid ex-factory reference prices are 6200–6300 yuan/ton, with actual deals negotiated by quantity.
Dicalcium Phosphate:
Yesterday, the dicalcium phosphate market operated on a stronger note. Sulfur prices surged to 3440 yuan/ton, providing strong cost support. Demand remains weak, and some downstream enterprises in certain regions have reduced volumes. Secondary breeding farmers are reluctant to sell due to inventory pressure. Current mainstream reference prices in Yunnan trade markets are 3200 yuan/ton; Sichuan trade markets 3150–3180 yuan/ton; Hubei trade markets face tight supply, with mainstream reference prices at 3500 yuan/ton. Yunnan primary and secondary calcium market prices are 4330–4340 yuan/ton; Guizhou 4400 yuan/ton. Yunnan dihydrogen calcium market prices are 4720–4730 yuan/ton; Guizhou 4820 yuan/ton.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the port sulfur spot market continued its broad upward trend. Yangtze River port granular sulfur spot reference price was 3440 yuan/ton, up 2.38% from the previous day. News of USD transaction prices from Indonesia hitting new highs continues to emerge, further strengthening market confidence. Holders are generally reluctant to sell, pushing up the focus of spot negotiations.
A northern refinery’s sulfur sales tender closed at 3245 yuan/ton, while a southern refinery’s tender closed at 3415 yuan/ton. These dual positives significantly boosted market confidence. Domestic resources are mainly shipped at stable prices, and overall supply rhythm is steady. Today, attention should be paid to spot market dynamics.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw partial adjustments. Raw material sulfur prices remained high, and some regional acid plants are still under maintenance or reducing production. Prices in East, Central, South, and Southwest China were raised during the week by 40–100 yuan/ton. In Hubei, mainstream prices have risen by 260 yuan/ton in October, setting a new annual high for sulfuric acid. Currently, Hubei’s 98% smelting acid delivery prices are around 710–820 yuan/ton; Yunnan’s 98% smelting acid delivery prices are 760–800 yuan/ton.
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices rose slightly. Upstream overall quotations increased to 10,200–11,000 yuan/ton, while actual procurement prices fluctuated within a limited range, still between 10,000 and 10,500 yuan/ton. Costs continue to rise. Downstream demand from the energy storage market is expected to remain strong in the short term. Battery factories have full orders, and leading lithium iron phosphate manufacturers are increasing production loads. Some manufacturers are undergoing maintenance, but overall production continues to rise. Prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war, with downstream expectations for price increases being moderate.
Lithium Iron Phosphate:
The lithium iron phosphate market is mainly trending upward. Lithium ore prices are slightly rising, and lithium carbonate spot prices continue to climb. Iron phosphate enterprises are slightly raising prices. Overall, lithium iron phosphate costs continue to increase. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate prices are expected to rise along with raw material cost logic. Today, power-type lithium iron phosphate market transaction prices are 34,800–37,900 yuan/ton; energy storage-type lithium iron phosphate market transaction prices are 33,700–35,800 yuan/ton.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Synthetic ammonia market prices remain high, prompting caution among downstream buyers. Procurement is based on rigid demand, and new orders are average. Supply is temporarily sufficient, but ammonia enterprises are feeling pressure. In northern regions, heavy fog is slowing turnover, possibly leading to downward pressure expectations.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market stabilized and consolidated. With rising sulfur and MAP prices, sulfur-based fertilizer costs have increased significantly. However, as autumn fertilizer season ends, urea prices fluctuate narrowly. Enterprises are cautious in pricing balanced fertilizers, and some high-nitrogen fertilizers are being pre-sold. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to adjust slightly while remaining stable.
-UREA PRICES ARE ON THE UP DESPITE THE LACKLUSTRE INDIA RESULT AND
DRIVEN BY PRE CBAM POSITIONING FOR EUROPE AND A SENTIMENT THAT CHINA
WILL NOT ISSUE A 4TH QUOTA
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE SLIDING
-POTASH PRICES ARE HOLDING AWAITING ANNUAL CONTRACT SETTLEMENTS IN MAJOR MARKETS
-AMMONIA AVAILABILITY IN SHORT SUPPLY RESULTING IN A USD 60 PMT
INCREASE IN THE MOSAIC YARA NOVEMBER CONTRACT
UREA
The urea price is edging up despite the lacklustre India tender result.
The India urea tender became a massive disappointment for the India
government, producers and traders alike since only 431 KT of product
was confirmed vs the desired 2 million MT pre-tender goal. The only
reason of course was the L1 prices at USD 395 CFR and USD 402 CFR,
respectively on each coast of India, were deemed too low by
participants which decided to defer or look for better paying markets.
Questions begged to be asked if the India tender rules and regulations
are suitable when one cargo priced at a discount of more than USD 30
PMT vs the average offers decide the outcome of the tender. The work
involved in submitting an offer, and the financial implications with
bid bonds and performance bonds to be committed over periods of months
before repaid, certainly may impact on companies’ interest or desire
to take part in future tenders. In five of the 2025 urea tenders in
India the results ended in far less ton than desired. On a cumulative
basis, the fulfilment reached over the past 8 tenders since December
of 2024 to date, only 56.6% success rate, 7.93 mill MT vs the desired
14 million MT.
The Middle East producers are in no hurry to engage in exports. Prior
to the India tender a Ghost sale was made by a major producer at USD
410 PMT FOB, supposedly to an import tax free country, then after the
India tender another producer sold at USD 395 PMT FOB. Egyptian
producers are well committed into November with all the product
destined for Europe to cover traders' shorts as well as in
anticipation of the C-BAM to be introduced in Europe on January 1st,
2026. Latest price confirmed is for a 5,000 MT Alexfert sale at USD
465 PMT FOB, up USD 10 PMT from last done last week. Algerian urea is
now at USD 480 PMT FOB from the latest 15,000 MT sale by SORFERT.
Russian granular urea is on offer at USD 370-380 PMT FOB with prilled
urea at around USD 350 PMT, both shipped from the Baltics. US NOLA is
very slow with physical prices around either side of USD 400 short ton
in the barge. PIM of Indonesia is rumoured to have sold 2×15 KT urea
to Aditya Birla at USD 364 PMT with a pre-tender owners estimate just
above USD 380 PMT FOB.
The Brazilian import market remains slow for urea, as end users' buy
ideas are sub $400 PMT CFR equivalent, as low as $385-390 PMT CFR. It
is expected that total 2025 imports will decrease by between 5-10%.
Ammonium sulphate is surging ahead with a record year in sight, which
of course has an impact on urea imports. Further, Brazil has access to
sanctioned Iran urea plus Venezuela and Russia origins. However, all
this being said the paper market found support at between USD 420-424
PMT CFR for November.
China remains a mystery and there is no indication of a 4th quota
being introduced yet the domestic market is very depressed. As of
October 29, 2025, the total inventory level of China's urea
enterprises stood at 1,554,300 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons
compared to the previous week, representing a month-over-month
decrease of 4.66%. During this period, the inventory levels of urea
enterprises shifted from rising to falling. Market sentiment was
temporarily boosted by relevant news, leading to the recent release of
some previously suppressed demand and appropriate follow-up of certain
stockpiling needs. This contributed to a moderate increase in the
number of new orders and a rise in the volume of shipments from urea
factories. However, after the price increase, the number of new orders
started to decline. The provinces with increased inventory levels
among the enterprises included: Hainan, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangxi,
Yunnan, and Chongqing. The provinces with decreased inventory levels
included: Anhui, Gansu, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner
Mongolia, Ningxia, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang.
All eyes are on the decision of the NDRC of the future direction of
exports of urea from China.
In summary, the direction of the urea market is bullish. Time will
tell if this sentiment holds up in the next couple of weeks – after
all India was offered close to 4 million MT and only 430 KT confirmed
– the remaining volumes will have to find a home.
PHOSPHATES
Most delivered DAP prices extended declines this week as buyers
stepped back from purchases in the spot market, which dragged down
market sentiment further this week. Ethiopia's purchasing system was
thrown into chaos, further weighing on market sentiment. The price
decline was led by India where deals were concluded below the $730/t
CFR mark over the past two days this week, spurred by growing
inventory levels, subdued domestic offtake and a reduction in
government subsidy support. India's cabinet approved INR 379.52
billion ($4.3 billion) in phosphate and potash subsidies for the Rabi
2025–26 season, but the DAP subsidy rate fell 5% to INR29,805/t from
INR31,300/t during Kharif 2025. There was no mention of the special
package of INR 3,500/t previously extended to farmers, and the 4%
margin permitted for importers and domestic producers remains under
review. This has triggered delays in new deals as buyers anticipate
further price declines, while suppliers are seeing prices erode
quickly to sub-$730/t CFR from mid-$750s/t CFR within the span of two
weeks. A sale by one trader at $714/t CFR was widely rumoured but
unconfirmed. The chaos engulfing EABC in Ethiopia is adding to the
bearish market sentiment and numerous DAP cargoes are reported to have
been cancelled. Buyers in Pakistan remain out of the spot market
following the steep declines in the Indian market this week. Elsewhere
in Asia, questions over the amount of phosphates China can still
export lingered. The country exported around 3.8 Mt DAP and MAP from
January to September and multiple suppliers had indicated earlier this
month that only around 300,000 t of the DAP export quota allocation
remained.
India’s cabinet approved a proposal to spend INR379.52 billion ($4.3
billion) to subsidise phosphate and potassium fertilizers for the Rabi
season, according to a 28 October government statement.
The allocation represents an increase of approximately INR7.36 billion
over the Kharif 2025 season budget.
Subsidies at approved rates will be provided from October 2025 through
March 2026 via the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) scheme “to ensure
smooth availability of these fertilizers to the farmers at affordable
prices,” the statement added.
The subsidies will be allocated to farmers via manufacturers and
importers based on the approved NBS rates for 28 grades of P&K
fertilizers, according to the statement.
"In view of the recent trends in the international prices of
fertilizers and inputs like urea, DAP, MOP and sulphur, government has
decided to approve the NBS rates for Rabi 2025 … on phosphatic and
potassic (P&K) fertilizers including DAP and NPKS grades," the
Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said.
POTASH
Prices across the global potash markets stayed stable this week amid
muted spot demand as all eyes shifted to China in anticipation over
the start of early-stage negotiations for the 2026 supply contract.
Although market expectations are building that negotiations are likely
to begin, there has been no official confirmation yet. In China,
prices held steady this week. Prices in China have been largely range
bound over the month, adjusting to around the RMB3,000–3,350/t FCA
level in late October, compared with RMB3,000–3,400/t FCA seen at the
end of September. Supply and demand fundamentals have been fairly
stable, with a slight increase in domestic port inventory seen this
week, which was reported at around 2.1 Mt, according to local traders.
In September, China imported 1.12 Mt MOP, rising 45% from the previous
month, but total year-to-date imports were 6% lower on year at 8.79
Mt, according to Global Trade Tracker data. In the wider Asian region,
expectations for China’s 2026 supply contract negotiations to begin
are growing, while demand in many countries remains lacklustre,
leaving spot prices unchanged. Standard-grade MOP was assessed
unchanged for eight straight weeks at $360-390/t CFR, and prices for
granular MOP also showed no signs of change, staying in the range of
$380-400/t CFR for the ninth consecutive week. Trading activity
remains muted in Thailand, while buyers in Malaysia are procuring only
small volumes to meet immediate demand. The Indian government released
the latest Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) rates for the Rabi 2025–26
season but no adjustments were made to potash support. The MOP subsidy
was unchanged at INR1,428/t, while the maximum retail price remained
pegged at INR36,000/t. With the current contract price of $349/t CFR
translating to INR30,300–31,000/t landed cost – depending on rupee
volatility – importers face compressed margins. Any upward movement in
settlement prices may force importers to absorb costs or reduce
volumes. In the US, prices at NOLA fell marginally lower week on week
on the back of sluggish terminal and barge demand, with reports of P&K
volumes trending below typical fall levels. MOP prices edged lower to
$320-330/st FOB, but offers continue to be heard below that level,
though confirmed business remains limited.
AMMONIA
The ammonia market faces an acute shortage of spot tonnes and this was
reflected in a $60/t jump in the Tampa price for November. The
benchmark Tampa price increased for the sixth straight month to its
highest since February 2023 as the global ammonia supply crunch
deepened. The surge at Tampa was said to be driven by good demand in
the US for direct application combined with a lack of supply. Nutrien
shut down its nitrogen production in Trinidad last week, potentially
removing around 85,000 t/month from the market. An agreement over port
fees that was rumoured to lead to a rapid restart of production failed
to emerge, and Nutrien confirmed its facilities in the Caribbean
halted on 23 October. So far, there is no suggestion that other
producers in Trinidad will follow suit, and they may even benefit from
a boost in natural-gas supply given the Nutrien outage, although it is
unclear whether the spare gas will be directed to ammonia as opposed
to other demand sources. An outage at Ma’aden’s MPC unit in Saudi
Arabia is expected to last at least until the end of the year, with
lost production of at least 300,000 t, and potentially more if the
outage persists into the New Year. Ma'aden is not currently offering
spot tonnes and is maintaining its estimate of a return to MPC's
ammonia production in December. Elsewhere, Mosaic's standalone ammonia
plant at Faustina is still down for planned maintenance but on-track
to return mid-November. Last week's large purchase by Yara of 60,000 t
from Sorfert in Algeria for November/December loading is considered by
some to be spurred by the introduction of CBAM in Europe on 1 January
next year; imports after that date will attract additional costs of
around $50/t. The delivered duty paid price to northwest Europe was
assessed higher again this week based on last week's Algerian sales at
$625/t FOB. There remains little relief in sight for ammonia buyers
before the end of the year. Some clear signals from Woodside or GCA
could change that picture, but concern is mounting over demand
destruction at these levels.
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