LONDON (ICIS)—In Algeria, hearing sale at $458/tonne FOB for November shipment to Europe, around 25,000 tonnes of granular urea.
Morning. Int'l paper saw Nov AG trade upper-390s y'day, while nearby Nola paper was supported in low-$370s, and Feb phys traded high-$380s. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $390//$398
Nov $395//$403 – traded $399, $398
Dec $385//$395
Jan $370//$390
Cfr Brazil
Oct $415///$422.50
Nov $400//$410
Dec $395//$400
Jan $385//$400
Egypt
Oct $427//$440
Nov $416//$430
Dec $410//$425
Brazil Amsul
Nov $178//$185
Dec $175//$185
Nola
Physical: Nov traded $373, Dec $373, Feb $387, $389
Paper:
Nov $372//$376
Dec $373//$380 – traded $375
Jan $380//$385
Feb $383//$390
Mar $395//$410
UAN Nola
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$670
Dec $630//$660
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/russian-oil-supply-to-india-set-to-fall-to-near-zero-sources
LONDON (ICIS)—In Algeria, several granular urea cargoes concluded in mid $430s-440s/tonne FOB for end October and November.
Purefert bought 2 Egyptian cargoes
India plans first urea plant in Russia to secure fertiliser supply; details likely during Putin’s December visit: Report
India is planning its first urea plant in Russia, with RCF, NFL and Indian Potash Ltd signing NDAs with Russian firms to secure long-term fertiliser supply.
RCF, NFL and Indian Potash Ltd sign NDAs with Russian firms; proposed 2-million-tonne unit to reduce price volatility and import dependence.
RCF, NFL and Indian Potash Ltd sign NDAs with Russian firms; proposed 2-million-tonne unit to reduce price volatility and import dependence.
India is preparing to set up its first urea manufacturing facility in Russia to secure long-term fertiliser supplies and reduce exposure to global price shocks, people familiar with the discussions told Economic Times.
The proposed project, backed by Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers (RCF), National Fertilisers Ltd (NFL) and Indian Potash Ltd (IPL), aims to tap Russia’s abundant reserves of natural gas and ammonia, key raw materials that India lacks.
Officials said the venture could be announced during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India in December, marking a major new chapter in India–Russia economic cooperation.
State firms, potash player sign NDAs with Russian partners
According to Economic Times, RCF, NFL and IPL have already signed non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) with Russian companies to begin groundwork for the project.
The facility is expected to produce over two million tonnes of urea annually, one of the people cited said. Negotiations are currently focused on land allocation, pricing for natural gas and ammonia, and transport logistics.
“We are seeing sincerity and alignment on both sides,” one person told Economic Times, adding that the discussions are progressing steadily.
The companies did not respond to queries, Economic Times noted. Moneycontrol could not independently verify the report.
Why Russia?
Russia’s vast gas and ammonia reserves make it a natural partner for India, which remains import-dependent for these feedstocks despite being one of the world’s largest fertiliser users.
By setting up a plant in Russia, India aims to shield itself from future price shocks and supply disruptions, especially after the turmoil of the last two years, when global trade restrictions and wars upended fertiliser markets.
Background: Fertiliser crunch exposed supply risks
The project follows a severe fertiliser shortage during this year’s kharif (monsoon) season, when China halted exports of urea and other soil nutrients.
The sudden freeze forced India to scramble for alternative supplies at significantly higher prices, straining the subsidy bill and sparking concerns about food production.
With a well-distributed monsoon, fertiliser demand has surged as farmers expanded acreage under nutrient-intensive crops such as maize. Demand is set to rise again in the rabi (winter) season, when wheat, one of the most nutrient-heavy crops, is sown.
Domestic capacity rising, but raw material gaps remain
India’s domestic urea output reached a record 31.4 million tonnes in FY24, helped by six new plants commissioned by Hindustan Urvarak & Rasayan Ltd (HURL), Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Matix Fertilisers & Chemicals, and Ramagundam Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd (RFCL).
The cabinet has also approved a new urea plant in Assam, estimated at Rs 10,601 crore, to strengthen eastern capacity.
However, India still depends on imports for raw materials such as natural gas and ammonia—making ventures like the one in Russia strategically vital.
India is currently the second-largest consumer and third-largest producer of fertilisers globally, but it remains vulnerable to global commodity swings.
Despite being one of the world’s largest producers, Russia has begun importing sulphur —a key raw material for the chemical industry. The first shipment was reportedly purchased by a domestic fertilizer manufacturer. Market analysts attribute this to reduced oil and gas processing volumes and a rise in sulfur prices, which may have made imports more economically attractive.
According to S&P Global, citing traders, Russian companies have started sourcing sulphur from abroad. One Russian fertilizer producer recently bought 35,000t of sulphur at $390 per ton, including freight (CFR). S&P Global notes that there is currently strong demand in the market for sulfur shipments to Russia.
Russia ranks among the largest global producers and exporters of sulphur. In 2024, the country produced 5.6 mnt of the chemical, with most output coming from gas processing plants and the remainder from oil refineries. The biggest producer,Gazprom Dobycha Astrakhan, accounts for over 60% of Russia’s sulphur output. According to forecasts by consultancy Implementa, domestic sulphur production could rise by 50% to 9 mnt by 2030.
Analysts estimate that domestic consumption may grow from 5 mnt to 6 mnt, driven by increased demand for sulfuric acid production.
Meanwhile, sulphur exports from Russia dropped sharply in 2024 — down 74.3% year-on-year to just over 1 million tons, S&P Global reports. The main buyers were Brazil (169,000t) and China (125,000t). The export decline is largely explained by stronger domestic demand from fertilizer manufacturers. Roughly 80% of industrial sulphur is used to produce sulfuric acid, a key component in phosphate fertilizers. Russia’s largest sulfur consumer is Apatit (part of PhosAgro), with the capacity to produce 2.7 mnt of sulfuric acid annually. Other major producers include Voskresensk Mineral Fertilizers (Uralchem) and Phosphorit (EuroChem), each with capacities around 1 mnt. Chemical companies declined to comment on the situation.
Experts disagree on why Russia has started importing sulphur, citing either reduced oil refining or maintenance at gas processing plants. Many point to disruptions at Gazprom’s Astrakhan facility as a key factor.
One industry insider believes that despite some capacity losses, the domestic market remains adequately supplied, thanks to existing stockpiles. In their view, the main issue is price volatility: as production dipped, sulfur prices surged.
According to Rosstat data cited by Rupec, Russian sulphur production in the first eight months of 2025 fell 11.2% year-on-year, with August output down 22.3% to 344,000t.
Prices have spiked recently, even though there’s no real shortage — Russian producers could easily offset the lost volumes, said another market source. Most likely, producers simply raised prices, and for some chemical companies, importing sulphur became the cheaper option.
Sulphur:
Thank you! just heard $412 fob for Muntajat!
[Urea] On October 23, the daily production capacity of the urea industry was 187,800 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day; a decrease of 47,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operational rate is 80.28%, a decrease of 6.07% from the 86.35% recorded last year.
Thursday, 23 October 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt : Mopco has sold 5,000t of granular urea at $430/t FOB Damietta, November loading, for a nearby market.
Sulphur
CHINA
-$400 CFR heard done by YUC
-$410 CFR heard but no details
INDONESIA
-$400 CFR heard done
MIDDLE EAST
– Muntajat tender closed
MED/Black Sea
-$410-420 CFR Med discussed last week
-$370-380 FOB Black Sea
AMERICAS
– Brazil CMOC tender closed
Morning. Urea phys sales reported in AG ($395) and N.Africa (Sorfert $435) prompted little reaction on Int'l paper y'day. Meanwhile, in Nola, Nov paper repeat traded low-$370s. Mkts framed:
AG
Oct $390//$398
Nov $394//$403
Dec $385//$398
Jan $390 Offer
Cfr Brazil
Oct $415///$422.50
Nov $400//$410
Dec $395//$407
Jan $390//$403
Egypt
Oct $427//$440
Nov $415//$430
Dec $410//$425
Brazil Amsul
Nov $182//$187
Dec $175//$190
Nola
Paper:
Nov $372//$376 – traded $372, $373
Dec $373//$380
Jan $377//$382
Feb $380//$390
Mar $390//$405
UAN Nola
Nov $300//$325
Dec $285//$315
DAP Nola
Q4 $710//$740
Q1 $685//$715
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$670
Dec $630//$660
Fertilizer Industry China Morning Report 2025-10-22
❤ Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea transactions were average. Downstream mostly followed up with small orders for rigid demand. On the supply side, with the recovery of enterprises that had previously undergone maintenance, there is still incremental output. Under the loose supply-demand fundamentals, price support is limited. In the short term, the domestic urea market may temporarily continue weak operation.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: The supply and demand of the synthetic ammonia market are average. Some ammonia enterprises that had previous maintenance or equipment failures still need to recover. The market atmosphere is strongly wait-and-see. With the trend of continued increase in supply, downstream buyers are cautious in taking goods, and there is still pressure in some areas. In the short term, the market will remain in a stalemate with adjustments.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the ammonium sulfate market saw narrow adjustments. Domestic transaction atmosphere was mediocre. Although there was no new positive support from international demand, some granular factories still made rigid demand purchases, and there were orders providing support. It is expected that in the short term, the overall ammonium sulfate market will tend to stabilize, with room for individual high prices to fall back.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market continued weak operation. At the tail end of the autumn fertilizer season, the sales pace of compound fertilizer accelerated, but with compound fertilizer enterprises operating at low load, their enthusiasm for receiving ammonium chloride was not high. Ammonium chloride enterprises did not receive good orders, focusing mainly on destocking and shipments. In the short term, ammonium chloride prices will continue to operate at a low level.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market fluctuated narrowly. Although supply was tight in the short term, demand pressure remained relatively large, and prices moved forward under pressure. Coupled with the stalemate and weakness in urea prices, market sentiment was unstable, with strong wait-and-see mood. In the short term, manufacturers mainly focus on delivering pre-sale orders.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Yesterday, the overall domestic potash fertilizer market was slightly light in trading. Downstream factories were not active in raw material procurement. At present, the price of imported 62% white potash is mostly at 3150–3450 yuan/ton. Southern port quotations are relatively high, while northern market prices have slightly retreated. The operating rate of potassium sulfate manufacturers is relatively low, but overall supply is sufficient.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the monoammonium phosphate market overall operated steadily. In Central China, a few 55% powder ex-factory quotations were at 3300–3350 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations. The price of raw material sulfur once again hit a new high, and sulfuric acid prices rose in some areas, with costs continuing to climb. Factories remain under sustained pressure and many find it difficult to quote. Downstream overall demand was average, and the transaction focus slightly moved upward.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market still showed a light trading pattern. The price of raw material sulfur continued to rise, causing sustained cost-side pressure. However, downstream demand did not show obvious improvement, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was weak, with limited actual transactions. In the short term, the market will maintain a stalemate.
❤ Compound Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market fluctuated narrowly. Recently, upstream raw material monoammonium phosphate was adjusted upward due to rising sulfur and sulfuric acid prices, which in turn affected compound fertilizer costs. However, enterprise prices have not yet shown obvious adjustments. Some autumn fertilizer transactions remained flexible. For the new season, pre-sale policies and sporadic prices have been introduced, but downstream distributors are still in a wait-and-see state, with limited enthusiasm for operations. In the short term, compound fertilizer will continue to consolidate.
It takes approximately 1.3 to 1.5 tonnes of coal to produce one metric ton (mt) of ammonia, based on energy requirements. Producing 1 mt of ammonia requires roughly 11 MWh of energy, and a coal plant uses about 1.14 pounds of coal per kWh to generate electricity, which equates to roughly 1.3-1.5 tons of coal. But some producers only use 950-1,000 MT of coal to produce 1 mt of ammonia
ndonesia is no longer a cheap gas provider with a current subsidized gas cost of USD 6 MMBTU through the HGBT (Certain Natural Gas Pricing) program, which supports key industries and helps maintain competitive fertilizer costs. This policy, extended into 2025, is a crucial factor for the fertilizer industry and food security. For comparison, the market price for regasified gas from January to March 2025 was USD 16.67 per MMBTU.
The Indonesian government has set a special natural gas price at USD 6.50 to USD 7 per MMBTU for industrial use, depending on the application.
In my opinion, putting up a multi billion dollar project in Indonesia being a foreign company with gas prices subject to massive changes if the subsidy scheme changes poses a huge risk.
Appears to me that this project could be a WHITE ELEPHANT and not a golden one.