Well unless there's a new agreement, currently stands that Israeli government will take back full ownership of the Dead Sea potash in 2030
Agricultural groups are praising the Trump administration for including potash and phosphate on the final 2025 List of Critical Minerals released by the U.S. Geological Survey.
The Critical Minerals list began because the country is heavily reliant on imports of certain minerals, some of which are "at risk of serious, sustained, and long-term supply chain disruptions."
The inclusion of phosphate and potash on the list signals a heightened government policy around the production and supply chains for both fertilizers. That can include helping companies secure mining permits or other federal support to increase domestic production. The list also plays a role in trade policy, such as whether imports should face a duty or exports should be restricted.
Potash was originally on the list in 2018 but was removed in 2022. Phosphate was also added this year after an aggressive push by agricultural groups and lawmakers.
"Getting phosphate and potash back on the list is something the industry has been working on since they were oddly left off in 2022," said Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the Fertilizer Institute (TFI). "A high priority for TFI has been educating congressional offices, policymakers, media and the public about how closely phosphate and potash are tied to abundant and nutritious food. These are two minerals where stable supplies are absolutely necessary to fill our plates and feed our communities.
Looking at phosphate and potash prices, MAP (52% phosphate) and DAP (46% phosphate) are both priced significantly higher than a year ago, according to the DTN Fertilizer Index. MAP is $121 a ton higher than a year ago, while DAP is $188 higher. Potash is $41 a ton higher than last year.
"By being designated as a critical mineral, producers can access potash and phosphate reserves more quickly, thanks to streamlined permitting and reduced time and resource requirements for bringing new domestic supply online," said Chris Glen, a spokesperson for TFI. "This translates into a more reliable and timely fertilizer supply for farmers."
Also, the designation of a critical mineral helps reduce U.S. reliance on countries such as China and Russia, which are the dominant global exporters of phosphate and potash, TFI stated. Currently, China and Russia control 53% of global phosphate production, with Morocco contributing another 13%. That kind of concentration leaves the global market vulnerable to deliberate supply manipulation or unexpected disruptions.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, also thanked the administration for taking a step to help address rising production costs.
"As we look toward the next planting season, soybean farmers are concerned about the increasing cost of farming inputs, including fertilizer," Ragland said. "By recognizing phosphate and potash as critical minerals, the U.S. Geological Survey has underscored the importance of a reliable domestic fertilizer supply. While more work remains to strengthen supply chains and reduce costs for farmers, today's announcement is a meaningful step toward greater stability and security for U.S. agriculture."
Initially, phosphate was not among the minerals on a draft list back in August. In a letter, 19 senators and 49 House members asked Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to include phosphate. They argued that doing so would help spur more domestic production and improve supply chains.
The USGS notice in the Federal Register stated USDA recommended the inclusion of phosphate, "citing its importance to food security."
Other minerals added to the list included silicon, copper, silver, rhenium and lead. Arsenic, boron, tellurium, metallurgical coal, and uranium were also added to the 2025 list, the USGS stated. All told, 60 minerals are on the list.
The Federal Register will publish the final 2025 List of Critical Minerals on Friday.
Morning. As N.African phys prices soar, reports of new Chinese export quotas saw Urea paper values elsewhere drop yday, to eventually find support at lower levels, and brought an expectation of India's imminent return. Now IPL tender announced – Looking to refresh bids/offers. Mkts framed cob:
AG
Nov $395//$405 – traded $395, $390, $390, 390, $395
Dec $380//$390 – traded $385, $382.50
Jan $370//$390
Brazil
Nov $405//$412 – traded $411, $404, $397, $400, $404,
Dec $390//$405
Jan $380//$403 – traded $403
Egypt
Little definition
Nov $480//$510
Dec $460//$490
Nola
Phys: Nov traded $385, $388. Dec $375, Jan $378, Feb $385
Paper:
Nov $385//$400
Dec $377//$380 – traded $388, $375, $378, $380
Jan $375//$382 – traded $380
Feb $375//$385
Mar $380//$390
Apr $365//$380 – traded $378
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
Factories with quota :
Dongping 2.4, Hualu Dezhou 1, Xinxinlianxin 1.8, Linquan 5k, Zhengyuan 8k, Tianze 3, Fudao 3, Mingquan 1, Ludatianhua 1, Jinkai 1, Lianhua 2, Hualu Jingzhou 1.1, Langhua 0.7, Boyuan 4k, Union 1, Zhongying 7k, Tianqing 4k, Yuxiang 1.2, Xinjiang Yihua 1.1, Lun tai Tianyun 1, Jiuyu 1w, Liaoning Huajin 1.2, Aksu Huajin 1.4, Yankuan 0.4, Dongguang 2, Haoyuan 0.9, Yingshida 0.3, Langhua 0.7; Mei Feng 1, Sichuan Tianhua 12,000 tons, Xinjiang Zhongneng 0.5, Yanhu 0.3, Huhe 0.4. Total: 36.4
Today, the domestic urea market saw a robust upward trend in reported prices, driven by news about export quotas from the previous day. This signaled positive developments in the market, leading manufacturers to maintain strong pricing. However, traders are currently somewhat cautious about following up on orders, and further observation is needed to gauge the direction of transactions.
-THE GLOBAL UREA MARKET IS FRAGMENTED WITH ONLY EUROPE AN ACTIVE BUYER
DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF CARBON EMISSION POLICIES
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE DECLINING ACROSS THE BOARD
-POTASH MARKETS ARE AWAITING CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS IN BOTH INDIA AND
CHINA FOR GUIDANCE
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE GOING UP DUE TO PRODUCTION ISSUES AND LIMITATIONS
IN KEY EXPORT ORIGINS
UREA
The urea market is hobbling along with very little if any activity in
SE Asia, LAM, and the US market being subdued. The European market is
the only region active with sourcing primarily from Egypt preparing
for the introduction of CBAM on January 1st, 2026. The latest reported
price from Egypt is MOPCO at USD 507 PMT, up from USD 470 PMT FOB just
a few days earlier.
China appears to have decided to export another 600,000 MT of
coal-based urea just in time for another India tender. This
development is tempering any price increases and/or activity in other
regions.
Rumours of another urea tender in India is gaining (SLOW) pace
although no official announcement to date. Urea inventory levels have
increased substantially in India thus there may not be any urgency for
another tender anytime soon. Indian urea inventories hit around 6.9mn
t at the end of October, marking a second monthly build since August,
as imports climbed after multiple tenders and production picked up.
The rising stocks are bridging a gap to levels a year ago, with
inventories at 7.8mn t and 6.8mn t at the end of October and September
last year, respectively. Stocks had slipped as low as 3.5mn t at the
end of August this year. Inventories rose by a net 2.12mn t in
October, with domestic production of 2.68mn t and imports of 1.6mn t
outstripping local sales of 2.33mn t, the latest provisional data
show. Production of 2.68mn t was the highest since the start of 2024,
while sales were stable on the year.
India’s current urea production capacity is 31.4 million MT with sales
in the April 2024 to March 2025 reaching 38.77 million MT with the
current campaign estimated to increase sales substantially. The
implication is that India’s aim to become self-sufficient in urea is a
farfetched utopia, nano technology included.
India’s RCF has invited to a long-term contract for a total of 2.5
million MT with offers to be valid to March 1st, 2026. Participants
are required to have a minimum production capacity of 1 million MT per
year and will need to supply a minimum of 500,000 MT per year. The
apparent backdrop to this long-term tender is the expire of the OMIFCO
of Oman contract at the end of May. IFFCO and Kribhco of India each
owns 25% of IMIFCO with the remaining 50% held by the Oman government.
The initial reaction from the trading community is that a long-term
urea supply contract with a rather dubious pricing formula is a futile
exercise at best.
In other trading news it appears Iranian producer MIS has sold 2×30 KT
granular urea at USD 375 PMT FOB for shipment latest 1H December.
Lordegan is said to have sold 30 KT at USD 371.50 PMT FOB for 1H
November shipment. SOCAR is reported to have sold at USD 440 PMT FOB
at an unspecified Black Sea port. Pupuk Indonesia will conduct a sales
tender for 2x5KT prilled urea from Palembang on November 6th. Last
sale was with PIM for granular at USD 364 PMT FOB covering 2×15 KT
volume.
Brazil is steady at around the USD 420-425 PMT CFR level with some
rumours that offers have been made at sub USD 420 PMT CFR. The US NOLA
barge market is very slow with the latest November bids at USD 394
PST.
In summary, the urea market price is shakingly holding on to levels
guided by geopolitical and regulatory frameworks coming into place in
2026. Again, India will play a role but as in the past, no guarantee
for urea prices holding fort. China’s release of another 600,000 MT
will certainly put a damper on price increases.
PHOSPHATES
US phosphate values have declined through the fall application season
as weakened farmer affordability, and a lingering government shutdown
roils buyer action. If the fertilizer market had clarity on the future
of import tariffs or the government shutdown — which is limiting
visibility on agriculture markets and the future of potential farmer
subsidies — then more buying decisions could be made. But without that
clarity many buyers do not feel safe deciding a course of action for
fall applications.
The phosphate fall application run usually lasts until the US
Thanksgiving holiday on 27 November, which means domestic sellers have
roughly three weeks for demand to emerge before growers leave their
fields and winter arrives.
On 7 August, US tariffs were placed on phosphate fertiliser suppliers
to the country as follows:
Saudi Arabia: 10%
Israel: 15%
Mexico: 0% or 25% (negotiations pending and depending on USMCA status)
Jordan: 15%
Egypt: 10%
Morocco: 10% + CVD (final 2022 rate at 16.6%)
Tunisia: 25%
EU: 15%
Lebanon: 10%
Australia: 10%
South Korea: 15%
South Africa: 30%
Senegal: 10%
Canada: 0% or 35% (depending on USMCA status).
The imposition of the tariffs and uncertainty over whether they will
remain in place has effectively halted all imports of DAP/MAP to the
US for the key fall season, resulting in extremely low stocks.
Fresh seaborne MAP sales to Brazil are lacking, but prices are now
pegged down an average of $5pt wk-on-wk at $650-660pt cfr from a flat
$660pt cfr previously following a further decline in inland values.
Latest MAP sales to Brazil had been suggested around $660pt cfr but
any fresh deals to the market would now likely be priced below this
level.
Suppliers have been avoiding any sales to Brazil amid falling MAP
prices; the benchmark is now an average of $100pt lower than its 2025
peak.
Local sources now report MAP availability as low as $625pt cfr
equivalent from bonded warehouses in Brazil. Some other indications
suggest inland prices around $630-640pt cfr equivalent.
DAP export prices from China are reported to have dropped for the last
remaining cargoes that had secured CIQ clearance prior to the 15/16
October deadline.
A cargo of around 30,000t DAP is strongly rumoured to have been sold
from China to Pakistan this week for prompt loading at a price in the
high $720spt cfr. The netback on this deal would likely be in the
mid-$690spt fob China, although it has not been fully confirmed by the
suggested parties involved.
Reports also suggest that some DAP cargoes previously awarded by
Bangladesh have been sold to India at prices implying much lower
netbacks than the sale to Pakistan, but details have yet to be fully
confirmed.
The recent Bangladesh tender awards for 165,000t DAP are reported to
have fallen though, with the three Chinese cargoes that were awarded
previously expected to be redirected to India.
Indian DAP inventories had fallen by 115,000t to 2.3mn t at the end of
October as domestic offtake intensified, according to provisional
data. More imports will be needed to end the year with comfortable
stocks. November opening stocks are up by 622,000t on the year. India
has played catch-up for most of this year to replenish DAP stocks that
had fallen to 1.1mn t at the start of January. DAP imports last month
were 92,000t above the 2020-24 average for October, at 896,000t,
line-up data show. Output remained in line with recent months at
317,000t. But combined imports and production were outstripped by the
seasonal increase in local sales, which leapt to 1.3mn t — in line
with the five-year average. Stocks could fall further, given that
November typically brings peak domestic sales. Importers will have to
remain in the market if India wants to prevent inventories slipping
below 2mn t. But the government announced last week that it will keep
covering importers for their losses, while it also increased the DAP
subsidy by 7pc, giving importers confidence to return to the market.
Sales totalled 270,000t last week, and several further cargoes are
under negotiation, so importers are in a better position to negotiate
with suppliers than a year ago. Indian TSP inventories climbed by
53,000t over October to end the month at 404,000t, according to
provisional data. Imports outpaced domestic sales again. Another
121,000t is expected to arrive in November-December — to complete the
volume secured under an offtake agreement with Moroccan producer OCP
that expires this year.
A Chinese supplier is rumoured to have sold a 30,000t DAP cargo for
prompt loading to Pakistan at a price of around $727pt cfr. However,
the deal has not been confirmed, and no buyers had reported any fresh
purchases at the time of writing.
DAP offers to Pakistan last week were reported to have dropped to
$740-750pt cfr with bids from buyers in the market last indicated at
around $725-730pt cfr.
Pakistan’s DAP prices were last week assessed at $730-750pt cfr, down
an average of $15pt from $750-760pt cfr previously. This followed a
$10pt decline in prices in the market two weeks ago and a $20pt drop
the week before.
DAP/MAP/NPK/NPS exports from Saudi Arabia in January-August climbed
15% yr-on-yr to 4.18Mt from 3.64Mt, according to updated data from
Trade Data Monitor. The country’s DAP/MAP exports climbed during the
eight-month period while NPK/NPS exports were largely flat.
Saudi Arabia exported 2.95Mt DAP in January-August, a 19% increase
from the same period last year. DAP exports to India jumped 48%
yr-on-yr to 1.62Mt. Other destinations for Saudi DAP in January-August
included Ethiopia (355,390t), Bangladesh (320,000t), Pakistan
(120,000t), and the US (120,000t).
Saudi Arabia’s January-August MAP exports rose 7.6% yr-on-yr to
975,520t, with the volume to Brazil up 15% at 575,000t. MAP exports to
Australia increased 3.8% yr-on-yr to 205,500t.
January-August NPK/NPS exports from Saudi Arabia dipped 0.2% yr-on-yr
to 247,894t. India was the destination of 200,000t NPK/NPS during the
reporting period, marking a 14% increase yr-on-yr.
Saudi Arabia exported 5.68Mt DAP/MAP/NPK/NPS during the full calendar
year of 2024, a 4.7% rise from 5.42Mt in 2023.
POTASH
MOP prices across most global markets were steady, but concerns over
affordability in key consumer markets persist, which are weighing on
liquidity and market sentiment. The industry continued to mull over
the potential start to the negotiations of China’s next supply
contract, but no fresh updates were heard this week. Brazilian potash
prices were unchanged at $350–360/t CFR as sentiment softened amid an
absence of spot deals, sources said. Buyers have stepped away from the
spot market, which has spooked sellers as MOP is typically the first
nutrient to be cut amid tightening budgets and poor affordability. As
sentiment weakens, market participants expect prices to drift to the
lower end of the range of $350/t CFR in Brazil. While price
indications are available for Q4 and 2026 Q1, some suppliers remain
hesitant to offer volumes for the second quarter. There are offers
heard at $365/t CFR but these are likely to include the cost of
extended payment terms, credit lines and rebates, which do not reflect
the current market level, sources said. Other offers were indicated in
the $350-353/t CFR range for November shipment to Paranagua. Potash
prices were largely stable in the Asian region, with only a slight
uptick in some domestic prices in China. Most market participants
eagerly await any news on the start of the contract talks in China,
followed by India.
AMMONIA
An already tight ammonia market at the start of October suffered a
further supply shock when Nutrien announced the immediate closure of
all four of its units in Trinidad and Tobago in the middle of last
month. A dispute over port fees imposed by the new government prompted
the decision, but it may serve as an early distress signal for the
rest of Trinidad's production, which has been affected by reduced
operating rates in recent years because of weak gas supplies and
deteriorating production economics.
As a result, the global ammonia market will stay firm until the end of
the year, contrary to our previous assumption that rising supply would
bring balance and price peaks in late November. The market is being
kept tight by persistent supply disruptions across key production
hubs, including Trinidad, the Middle East and north Africa, at a time
when demand rises seasonally in major consuming regions such as India,
the US and Europe. The lack of spot liquidity, coupled with delayed
capacity additions and logistical constraints, continues to reinforce
bullish sentiment both east and west of Suez.
The November Tampa contract settled at $650/t cfr, marking a fifth
consecutive monthly increase and reflecting the market's heightened
sensitivity to production outages and seasonal demand. The pace of
price escalation will slow into November, but the underlying tightness
remains, and with Nutrien's shutdown and Ma'aden's Saudi Arabian
outage due to last into 2026, no immediate relief is expected.
Fertilizer Industry China Morning Reference 2025-11-7
❤ Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea factory quotations were generally stable with minor fluctuations. In some mainstream regions, individual factories performed fairly well in receiving orders. With news of exports spreading, market participants’ enthusiasm for entering the market increased, and the market atmosphere warmed up. Moreover, most factories in mainstream regions still have pending orders, so the short-term downside space for prices has narrowed. It cannot be ruled out that under the combined effect of futures and spot, prices may remain firm.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market continued to make up for previous increases. Recently, due to environmental protection production restrictions, production fluctuations in some regions, and delays in resuming operations at ammonia enterprises undergoing breakdown maintenance, the atmosphere has been improving. However, with weak agricultural demand, operating rates in some regions have declined, making the market atmosphere cautious. Still, under the short-term situation of overall tightening supply, the market has a relatively strong mindset to hold prices firm. Of course, the atmosphere is not uniform, and operations are mainly adjusted regionally.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the ammonium sulfate market fluctuated and adjusted. The decline in mainstream international urea prices affected operators’ business sentiment. However, domestic supply remains relatively tight, limiting the extent of the decline. It is expected that in the short term, the market will mainly remain in a stalemate with a tendency to fall back.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated temporarily stable. Ammonium chloride enterprises had smooth sales, inventories declined, and some enterprises controlled orders. At present, downstream replenishment is relatively active, but there is still resistance to high prices. It is expected that in the short term, the ammonium chloride market will continue to operate in a stalemate and consolidation.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market was stable with slight adjustments. Downstream demand showed no obvious improvement, and transaction situations varied flexibly among enterprises. As the weekend approached, enterprises’ willingness to adjust prices decreased. The market is expected to remain temporarily stable.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: The domestic potash fertilizer market remains at a relatively high level. Domestic potassium chloride manufacturers are operating normally, and official quotations continue at previous levels. Market sales prices vary, with domestic 60% arrival prices at 3100–3150 yuan/ton. The potassium sulfate market is running steadily, with manufacturers maintaining previous quotations, and most transactions are negotiated on a per-order basis.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market saw its focus move up slightly. Hubei 55% powder ex-factory was around 3480–3500 yuan/ton, with mainly small orders being shipped. Raw material sulfur continued to hit new highs, factories kept increasing pressure, and downstream buyers were cautious about chasing higher prices. In the short term, the market is expected to remain firm and in a wait-and-see mode.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained a consolidating trend. Raw material prices continued to rise, further increasing cost pressures. However, downstream purchasing willingness was not high, and procurement remained mainly on a demand basis. The market trading atmosphere was relatively flat, and in the short term, the market is expected to continue in a wait-and-see state.
❤ Compound Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market was mainly in a wait-and-see state. With the rise in raw material prices for monoammonium phosphate, sulfur, and sulfuric acid, compound fertilizer costs increased accordingly, especially for sulfur-based products, which showed a more obvious impact. Enterprises are mostly brewing new winter storage prices, and in the short term, the wait-and-see sentiment in the compound fertilizer market is unlikely to ease.
Weekly Overview and Forecast of Urea by Jinlianchuang:
The domestic urea market experienced a fluctuating trend this week, with prices initially decreasing and then rising. The fluctuations were relatively limited, with adjustments ranging from 10 to 50 yuan per ton. Prices in the peripheral regions such as Northwest, Southwest, and Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable. As of Thursday this week, the prices for small and medium-sized granules in the main regions were around 1420-1590 yuan per ton.
The daily production of domestic urea fluctuated between 192,000 and 202,000 tons during the week, with a significant increase in supply due to the resumption of production at facilities that had been undergoing maintenance earlier in the week. Demand-side: There has been no noticeable change in the market's essential needs, and regional agricultural demand has led to a need for stockpiling. The demand for compound fertilizers and reserves has also picked up. Additionally, the urea futures market has continued to show a strong trend, with ongoing negotiations between supply and demand factors and market sentiment, resulting in a narrow range of price fluctuations for urea.
Prediction: As of this Thursday, the domestic daily production of urea is expected to be around 200,000 tons, and the supply of urea will remain ample. The fourth batch of urea export quota has been issued, with a quantity of approximately 600,000 to 700,000 tons. The market sentiment is expected to improve in the near future. Keep an eye on the trends of urea futures and the procurement rhythm of downstream and midstream companies. It is anticipated that the domestic urea market will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week. If the futures market continues to boost the sentiment of the spot market, there is a possibility of a comprehensive rebound. The extent of the rise will depend on the acceptance level of downstream and midstream companies.
The sample inventory level of urea at China's ports: 79,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared to the previous month, representing a month-on-month decline of 28.18%. During this period, the cargo from ports continued to depart. Multiple ports experienced loading and clearing operations, with notable reductions observed at the ports handling large-particle urea from Yantai Port and the ports handling small-particle urea from Zhenjiang Port and Huanghu Port. Overall, the inventory levels at these ports reached a low point for the year.
Morning. On Int'l paper, AG/Brazil paper buyers largely holding back at lower levels y'day, awaiting further mkt signals – Nov Brazil traded $419cfr ($11 under last done). Nola trended lower on the day – Dec phys traded $393, Mar paper $400.
AG
Nov $408//$418
Dec $407//$415
Jan $400//$410
cfr Brazil
Nov $412//$421 – traded $419
Dec $408//$418
Jan $403//$410
Egypt
Nov $455//$475
Dec $450//$468
Nola
Phys: Dec Nola traded $393 (x2)
Paper:
Nov $394//$405
Dec $393//$400
Jan $395//$403
Feb $395//$402
Mar $395//$400 – repeat traded $400
Apr $385//$408
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
ICE canola futures moved little on Wednesday, reflecting a lack of direction from fellow vegoils.
• January canola settled up 30 cents at $640.40 per metric ton.
• The mood around canola has become more bullish since a happy-seeming visit to China's agriculture minister and other Canadian agriculture leaders, and the invitation of the Chinese president to Canada's prime minister to visit, traders said.
• Lack of a concrete deal to reopen Canadian canola sales to China held back enthusiasm, as did the lack of major purchases from China since the U.S.-China trade deal. The few cargoes sold so far do not clear the U.S. glut of soybeans.
• Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures rose 0.32%.
• Euronext rapeseed futures rose 0.16%.
• Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.84%.
• The Canadian dollar fell again to its lowest since April versus the U.S. dollar.
The dollar rose to a three-month high against the euro on Monday, extending its gains from last week on doubts about the outlook for another Fed rate cut this year.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell signalled that may be the last cut this year, citing the risk of making additional moves without a more robust picture of the economy.
Were it not for the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, data releases scheduled for this week, including U.S. nonfarm payrolls, would have helped with that picture.
With government releases missing, investors will be left with limited non-government sources of economic data, including ADP employment data, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
'QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT' ABOUT DECEMBER RATE CUT
"There was quite a bit of doubt cast on the likelihood of a follow-up December rate cut," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
Federal Reserve officials on Monday continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify ahead of the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting.
In an appearance on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated the case for deep interest rate cuts that he has laid out since joining the central bank's Board of Governors in September.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in contrast, told Yahoo Finance that he was leery of further rate cuts while inflation remains significantly above the central bank's 2% target and is expected to accelerate through the rest of 2025.
"I don't recall, in all the years of watching these markets, public division among Fed policymakers as significant as this on the policy outlook," Osborne said.
Traders are now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a 25 bp cut in December, down from about 94%, a week ago.
EURO HITS WEAKEST VS DOLLAR SINCE AUGUST
The euro, which slipped as low as $1.1505 against the dollar, its weakest since August 1, pared losses to trade down 0.1% at $1.152225, after data showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods.
"The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher," Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
The dollar was up 0.4% to 0.80755 Swiss francs, its highest since mid-August.
Against the yen the dollar was 0.1% higher at 154.19 yen, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials.
Still, there remained risks to the dollar, including the U.S. government shutdown that has disrupted the supply of official data crucial to gauging the strength of the economy.
"I don't think it is guaranteed that the dollar continues to strengthen," Osborne said.
POUND, YEN FACE THEIR OWN PRESSURES
For now, the pound and the yen face their own pressures.
Even though Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week sent the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December, markets remained underwhelmed by the central bank's gradual approach, particularly given that the Fed has turned more hawkish.
That has piled pressure on the yen, prompting jawboning from Japanese authorities to stem the currency's slide.
The yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened in markets in 2022 and 2024 to support the currency.
Sterling has softened as market expectations of another Bank of England rate cut this year increased after softer-than-expected inflation data released last month. On Monday, the pound was 0.1% lower at $1.3133.
The BoE meets this week, with some analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut, though market pricing only reflects a one-in-three chance of this occurring.
The Aussie slipped 0.1% to $0.6538. The currency has found some support from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates on Tuesday, following an uncomfortably high reading of core inflation.
Cryptocurrency bitcoin <BTC=, opens new tab> was down 2.6% at $107,152.
Morning. Int'l paper values softening y'day as offers moved lower in search of liquidity, with trading activity seen on Nov AG and Dec/Jan Brazil. Mkts framed:
AG
Nov $407//$415 – traded $413
Dec $405//$413
Jan $400//$410
Q1 $410 Offer
cfr Brazil
Nov $415//$423
Dec $407//$417 – traded $410
Jan $405//$408 – traded $405s
Egypt
Nov $455//$475
Dec $445//$470
Nola
Phys: Nov traded $394
Paper:
Nov $394//$400
Dec $395//$402
Jan $395//$405
Feb $395//$405
Mar $395//$405
Apr $390//$410
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
China:
The current domestic urea market situation shows no significant changes, with minor fluctuations in prices. Overall, the market trend remains relatively strong for the time being. The short-term market situation might persist for a few more days, but expectations suggest that pressure will still be present in the middle and latter part of the period, potentially leading to price fluctuations and a subsequent recovery of moderate downstream purchasing activities.
Vietgro:
UREA UNCOATED VN
Vol: 500MT
CFR Nhava: $498/MT
CFR Chennai: $495/MT
CFR Kolkata: $500/MT
Jumbo Bag with pallet
Valid price: 05 Nov, 2025
We can support for under MOQ 3-4 conts