Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose on Monday on signs of progress toward the end of a record-long U.S. government shutdown, along with expectations of a revival of U.S. soybean exports to top buyer China, traders said.
CBOT January soybeans settled up 13 cents at $11.30 per bushel but stayed below a 16-month high set last week.
CBOT December soymeal ended up $2.90 at $320.00 per short ton and December soyoil rose 0.90 cent to settle at 50.58 cents per pound.
Market players remain optimistic about trade relations with China after the Asian nation last week announced it would restore soybean import licenses for three U.S. firms.
Traders are positioning ahead of crop supply/demand reports due on Friday from the U.S. Department of Agriculture that will include the agency's first U.S. and global crop estimates since mid-September.
Meanwhile, the USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1,088,577 metric tons, in line with trade expectations for 1,000,000 to 1,700,000 tons.USDA/I
The inspections report showed no soybeans earmarked for shipment to China.
The U.S. harvest is seen as nearly complete, with analysts surveyed by Reuters on average estimating the soybean harvest as 96% finished. The USDA has not released its regular weekly U.S. crop progress report since late September.
In Brazil, soybean planting was 61% complete, lagging the 67% seen a year ago due to irregular rainfall, consultancy AgRural said.
The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and yen on Tuesday on concerns about the deteriorating U.S. labor market after a report showed that private employers cut jobs last month.
ADP Research said on Tuesday that its preliminary estimates show that private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending October 25.
It comes as the federal government moves closer to reopening, which will unleash a flood of economic data that may point to a slowing economy.
“When the government is closed, the news stream is non-existent. With the government going to reopen, I think we're going to begin seeing more cracks,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
The U.S. Senate approved a compromise on Monday that would end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, breaking a weeks-long stalemate that has disrupted food benefits for millions, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid and snarled air traffic.
It next heads to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has said he expects to pass it on Wednesday and send it on to U.S. President Donald Trump to sign into law.
Goldman Sachs expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to publish a new data schedule between November 13 and 17, assuming the government reopens later this week. The government may also publish its September employment report a few days after reopening, likely on Nov. 18 or 19, Goldman economist David Mericle said in a report.
The dollar has bounced since mid-September as traders price in fewer rate cuts on a more positive growth outlook for the U.S. economy. Many Federal Reserve officials are also wary of making further rate cuts on concerns about the inflation outlook.
But on Tuesday, the euro rose back above its declining trend line against the dollar that has held since September 17, Chandler noted. “The underlying sentiment toward the dollar still remains negative,” he said.
The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.24% to 99.39, with the euro up 0.29% at $1.159.
The euro is supported by the outlook for European Central Bank policy, with its key rate expected to stay unchanged through 2027, while the Fed is seen easing policy.
The market is pricing in 67% odds the Fed will cut rates in December.
Trading volumes were low on Tuesday with the U.S. bond market closed for the Veterans Day holiday.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.06% against the greenback to 154.06 per dollar.
The British pound was flat on the day, after earlier dropping on data showing that Britain's labor market cooled noticeably in the third quarter as the unemployment rate jumped and wage growth slowed.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.28% to $103,198.
China Domestic Market:
Analysis of today's market situation
The domestic urea market is still experiencing a weak and stagnant situation today. The market sentiment is currently subdued, and the downstream industry is also inclined to wait for even lower prices. On the other hand, the manufacturers are under pressure to sell their products, but they can still manage for another day or two. As a result, the market is in a state of stalemate and competition, and it is highly likely that the situation will continue to show signs of easing downward pressure.
CBAM Update (Leaked Draft)
The EU Commission is (reportedly) circulating draft Implementing Acts outlining how CBAM certificates, benchmarks & verification will work from 2026.
Key takeaways:
Physical Site Visits:
– All CBAM producing installations need on-site verification in 2026. From 2027, visits can be virtual or waived if low-risk and data integrity is proven.
5% Materiality Threshold:
– New rule introduces a 5% allowable deviation for both total embedded emissions & free allocation per product CN code.
Simpler Oversight (EU ETS aligned):
– Modelled on EU ETS rules, but verifiers no longer need national authority approval to skip or replace site visits.
– Applies from 1 Jan 2026 when CBAM costs begin.
– 2026 = strict baseline year; from 2027 = more flexible verification for low-risk sites.
Dangote Fertiliser partners German’s thyssenkrupp Uhde to license four urea granulation units in #Nigeria
🔹 Thyssenkrupp Uhde Fertilizer Technology (UFT) a subsidiary of thyssenkrupp Uhde, has entered into a strategic agreement with Dangote Fertiliser Limited (DFL) to license its advanced UFT Fluid Bed Granulation Technology for four new urea granulation units in Nigeria.
The agreement includes the provision of the technology license, a comprehensive Process Design Package (PDP), and the supply of proprietary equipment such as granulators and scrubbers.
🔹 Each of the four new units will have a nameplate capacity of 4,235 tons per day, significantly boosting DFL’s annual urea granule production from approximately 2.65 million tons to over 8 million tons.
These units will be constructed in Lekki, adjacent to DFL’s existing fertilizer complexes, which have been operating with UFT technology since 2021 and produce 3,850 tons per day each.
The new facilities will incorporate UFT’s energy-efficient scrubbing system, designed to minimize pressure drop while effectively controlling dust and ammonia emissions to meet stringent environmental standards.
Additionally, the plants will feature the Ammonia Convert Technology (ACT), which integrates ammonium sulfate byproducts into the urea granules, eliminating waste streams and offering logistical and commercial advantages.
🔹 Commenting on the partnership, CEO of thyssenkrupp Uhde, Nadja Haakansson, said:This partnership with Dangote Fertiliser Limited underscores our shared vision for sustainable industrial development and global food security. By deploying our proven UFT Fluid Bed Granulation Technology, we are setting new standards in efficiency and environmental stewardship in fertilizer production. We are proud to support DFL in building resilient and future-ready value chains.
In the same vein, President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said: We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with thyssenkrupp Uhde Fertilizer Technology for the expansion of our fertilizer operations in Lekki. This initiative reflects our commitment to agricultural self-sufficiency and industrial progress across Africa. With UFT technology, we are ensuring the production of high-quality urea fertilizer that meets global standards while reducing environmental impact. This investment further positions Nigeria as a leading fertilizer producer.
Dangote Fertiliser Limited is one of Africa’s largest fertilizer producers, committed to enhancing agricultural productivity and supporting food security across the continent while thyssenkrupp Uhde’s UFT Fluid Bed Granulation Technology is recognized globally as one of the most advanced solutions for producing urea granules.
🔹 Currently, over 70% of the world’s urea granule output is produced using this technology, contributing significantly to global food supply while maintaining emissions well below regulatory limits.
Morning. Quiet start to week on Int'l paper – further trading signals awaited, and tenders this week expected to provide more price definition. In Nola, Dec phys barges traded mid/low-$380s (up $8-$10 from last Thurs). Mkts framed:
AG
Nov $395//$405
Dec $385///$400
Jan $380//$390
cfr Brazil
Nov $410//$420
Dec $398//$415
Jan $390//$405
Egypt
Nov $480//$505
Dec $455//$480
Jan $420//$465
Nola
Phys: Dec traded $385, $383
Paper:
Nov $385//$400
Dec $377//$385
Jan $380//$390
Feb $375//$385
Mar $380//$390
Apr $365//$380
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $300//$328
Jan $295//$325
Feb $295//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6hjn7aV1UycoYmYqgak5zA
Analysis of today's market situation
The domestic urea market is mostly stable today, although there have been minor fluctuations in some prices. At the current price level, downstream entities are not very enthusiastic about stockpiling, and the demand is already limited. Therefore, despite the temporary sufficiency of supply, the market is likely to start showing signs of weakening first, followed by a period of stagnation while waiting for clearer information regarding the Indian tenders.
https://www.gulf-times.com/article/714722/business/qatarenergy-enters-into-20-year-urea-supply-agreement-with-mitsui/amp
Iranian producers announced $377/mt as official price this week except Pardis which the producer is offering $380/mt for December delivery.
Morning. Last week – reports of new Chinese export quotas saw urea paper values fall, but IPL's immediate response saw some stability return, as Trade await further info. Meanwhile, N.African prices continued to firm up. Mkts framed close of week:
AG
Nov $392//$405
_[Nov traded $413-$390 last week]_
Dec $385//$395
_[Dec traded $385-$382.5 l/w]_
Jan $375//$390
cfr Brazil
Nov $407//$420
_[Nov traded $419-$397 range l/w]_
Dec $395//$415
_[Dec traded $410 l/w]_
Jan $385//$405
_[Jan traded $405-$403 l/w]_
Egypt
Nov $480//$510
Dec $455//$480
Nola
Paper:
Nov $385//$400
Dec $377//$385
_[Dec traded $375-$398 range l/w]_
Jan $380//$387
_[Jan traded $380 l/w]_
Feb $375//$385
Mar $380//$390
_[Mar traded $400 l/w]_
Apr $365//$380
_[Apr traded $378 l/w]_
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $300//$328
Jan $295//$325
Feb $295//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
Analysis of today's market situation
During the weekend, the prices offered by the urea enterprises in the main regions have been continuously raised. Currently, the prices at the factory gate are around 1570-1600, but actual transactions have significantly decreased. However, the manufacturers' sales can still sustain for a few more days, leading to a temporary stability in the prices. Nevertheless, based on the fundamental market conditions and considering the timing of the upcoming bidding in India, it is highly likely that the prices will first show signs of fluctuation and decline, followed by a partial recovery in downstream purchasing activities, and then a period of stalemate before further developments occur.
Industry China Morning Brief – 2025-11-10
❤Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market experienced a narrow upward fluctuation. At the beginning of the week, companies lowered prices to secure orders due to shipping pressure; some companies saw improved order intake and pressure eased. However, due to strong supply and weak demand, bearish sentiment was prevalent. Later, driven by news of export quotas and Indian tenders, factories in major production areas raised prices, boosting market activity, though participants remained cautious. The short-term market is expected to remain firm.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, synthetic ammonia production was reduced due to environmental restrictions and unresolved equipment failures; port shipments continued, and downstream order enthusiasm increased, pushing new order prices higher. Ammonia producers continued to support the market with price hikes. With high prices, some repaired or previously faulty ammonia plants are expected to resume operations, and co-production plants may adjust output driven by profitability. The market continues to rise cautiously.
❤Ammonium Sulfate: Last week, the ammonium sulfate market underwent slight adjustments. Domestic raw material plants mostly reduced production loads, and future supply is expected to shrink. International sentiment was cautious due to China’s urea export quotas. Supply-demand dynamics will continue to play out, with limited room for adjustment. The short-term market is expected to maintain a slight adjustment trend.
❤Ammonium Chloride: Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market saw active trading. Some previously low prices rebounded. Ammonium chloride producers held firm on prices and monitored the market, with some controlling order volumes. As autumn fertilizer season ends, compound fertilizer plant operations have not significantly increased, and ammonium chloride demand is limited to low-level restocking. Thus, prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.
❤Melamine: Last week, the domestic melamine market saw narrow consolidation. Urea, the raw material, performed well, but industry capacity utilization showed a gradual upward trend. The market was mixed with bullish and bearish views, and participants adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach. The market is temporarily operating in a fluctuating consolidation pattern.
❤Potash Fertilizer: Last week, domestic potash fertilizer prices showed a slight upward trend. With limited circulating supply, traders continued frequent inquiries, and quotations remained firm at high levels, with most transactions negotiated individually. The potassium sulfate market also saw slight price increases driven by raw materials, with small-volume transactions prevailing.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market trended upward. In Central China, 55% powder ex-factory prices were 3500–3550 yuan/ton, with actual transactions negotiated. Raw material sulfur continued to surge, repeatedly hitting new highs, and the upward trend persisted, increasing cost pressure. Manufacturers mainly suspended order intake, while downstream buyers purchased as needed. The short-term market focus continues to shift upward.
Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market was in a state of consolidation and observation. Raw material sulfur prices continued to climb sharply, increasing production cost pressure. The autumn market is nearing its end, and downstream buyers mostly maintained a demand-based purchasing strategy. Market focus centered on signals from industry conferences, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern.
❤Compound Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market edged upward. Mainstream ex-factory prices for 45%S (315) were 2850–3000 yuan/ton. Recently, upstream raw material phosphate ammonium prices continued to rise, increasing compound fertilizer costs. Enterprises showed strong price-support intentions, and low-priced sulfur-based fertilizers decreased locally. New winter storage prices are still being formulated, and the short-term compound fertilizer market continues to consolidate. consolidation and observation. Raw material sulfur prices continued to climb sharply, increasing production cost pressure. The autumn market is nearing its end, and downstream buyers mostly maintained a demand-based purchasing strategy. Market focus centered on signals from industry conferences, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern.
❤Compound Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market edged upward. Mainstream ex-factory prices for 45%S (315) were 2850–3000 yuan/ton. Recently, upstream raw material phosphate ammonium prices continued to rise, increasing compound fertilizer costs. Enterprises showed strong price-support intentions, and low-priced sulfur-based fertilizers decreased locally. New winter storage prices are still being formulated, and the short-term compound fertilizer market continues to consolidate.
Sentiment and price direction in the global ammonia market is overwhelmingly driven by the upstream situation, rather than downstream conditions, and this certainly remains the case as the year nears its end and 2026 starts to come into focus.
With producers in Trinidad facing natgas curtailments of 30% from this weekend for at least 10 days and Nutrien yet to give any indication about a restart of its four plants on the island, the supply/demand balance in the West is tight.
This lack of availability has been reflected in upward price pressure that has seen figures close to $700pt cfr duty free/paid talked about for December and January spot deliveries to buyers at key import hubs in Northwest Europe.
Opinion is split over whether that threshold will be broken given offshore values are now far higher than their onshore counterparts, despite natgas prices remaining at elevated levels compared to those seen prior to the conflict in Ukraine.
Relatively firm nitrates and phosphates prices mean some ammonia consumers are able to absorb the deeper dive into their pockets, but chemical manufacturers face a more challenging outlook, not just in Europe but also Northeast Asia – where plant turnaround season is well underway.
Indeed, stoppages at caprolactam (capro) and acrylonitrile (ACN) units in countries such as China and Taiwan, combined with strong ammonia plant run rates in Indonesia, have created a healthy surplus of competitively priced volume that leading traders are utilising for arbitrage opportunities in the West.
Although the vast majority of market players do not have access to the Red Sea and incur considerable extra freight costs around the Cape of Good Hope, the wide East-West price gap means such openings are decent.
Mitsui recently loaded a total of 23,400t at several Chinese ports for shipment to Morocco, while a similar-sized cargo sourced from a chemical production complex at Lianyungang is heading to two recipients in South Korea and India.
With North African producers mainly sold out and given this month’s sharp drop in exports from the Caribbean, buyers in the West bar those in Turkey – who can receive discounted cargoes from Iran/Oman – will have been pleased to hear about the imminent restart of a large plant in Saudi Arabia.
Ma’aden’s announcement that export availability should return to normal next month will introduce an extra 75-100,000t per month to the market. The unscheduled shutdown of one of its three 1.1m. tonne/year plants in August is one of the drivers of recent upward price pressure.
Next door to the Kingdom, a Qatari spot cargo was sold to a trader at, or close to, $500pt fob for shipment to one or more ports in the West, but outside of some sales from Iran/Oman to Turkey at around $600pt cfr, the market was quiet.
Spot activity is expected to pick up as the month progresses, especially in Europe given EU-based buyers who receive cargoes from 1 January will be subject to the controversial new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) duty that will mean an extra financial burden.
Such buyers will be watching the Trinidad situation closely given the Nutrien shutdown has cost the market 85,000t per month. The Canadian major idled indefinitely its four plants – which between them exported over 1m. tonnes in 2024 – two weeks ago in a row over port access and feedstock issues.
Bangladesh Approves Fertilizer Imports to Secure Stocks and Sustain Uninterrupted Crop Production for the Upcoming Season
The Advisors Council Committee on Government Purchase (ACCGP) on Tuesday approved several proposals for fertiliser imports worth around Tk 1,078 crore ( USD 88.5 million ) to ensure an uninterrupted supply of key agricultural inputs across the country for 2025–26 fiscal year.
🔹 The meeting, held at Secretariat, was virtually chaired by Finance Adviser Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed.
According to Industries and Agriculture Ministries, the approved imports include urea, TSP, MOP and phosphoric acid from multiple international sources under both government-to-government (G2G) and open contracts.
🔹 Under the Industries Ministry’s proposals, Fertiglobe Distribution Limited of the UAE will supply 40,000 metric tons of bulk granular urea at a total cost of Tk 192.08 crore ( USD 15.77 million ).
🔹 SABIC Agri-nutrients Company of Saudi Arabia will provide an additional 40,000 metric tons at the same price, with a unit rate of US$392.33 per ton.
🔹 The committee also approved the purchase of 30,000 metric tons of bagged granular urea from Karnaphuli Fertiliser Company Ltd (KAFCO), Bangladesh, at Tk 139.53 crore ( USD 11.46 million ), priced at US$380 per ton.
🔹 From Agriculture Ministry, Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) received approval to import 35,000 metric tons of MOP fertilizer from Russia’s JSC Foreign Economic Corporation (Prodintorg) at Tk 152.61 crore ( USD 12.5 million ), equivalent to US$356.25 per ton.
🔹 BADC will also import two separate lots of 30,000 metric tons each of TSP fertilizer from Morocco’s OCP Nutricrops, at a cost of Tk 201.22 crore ( USD 16.5 million ) per lot (US$548 per ton).
🔹 Additionally, the committee approved the import of 20,000 metric tons of phosphoric acid (P2O5: 52–54%) for DAP Fertiliser Company Ltd (DAPFCL) at Tk 199.20 crore ( USD 16.35 million ) through M/S Sun International FZE, UAE, sourced from manufacturers in China and South Africa.
The decisions aim to maintain adequate fertilizer reserves for the upcoming cultivation season and support uninterrupted agricultural production.