https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ebrahim-argha-3355211a4_dangote-nigeria-urea-activity-7393897742294720513-yO8E?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAALSgwUBo-WWBUniciUvIuHDmWa1dXsMym4
10 CBAM effects we expect on the fertilizer market in Europe
1. Prices will increase for (Nitrogen) fertilisers in Europe.
2. The first months there could be widely varying price offers. The market is not well prepared. All importers will need to make guesses on their cost – conservative or optimistic? Choosing market share or secure margin?
3. Importers will start asking suppliers for CO2 data and compare them. The greener producers can ask higher prices than the less green ones. Trade flows will shift and investments in greener production will be rewarded.
4. Imports will stay. Europe is far from self-sufficient in fertiliser production. Many factories have closed over the past 50 years for environmental reasons, or because the energy cost in Europe is not competitive. As long as Europe does not find ways for competitive energy production or supply, not much production will shift back to Europe. Even if it does, planning and permits take years.
5. The fertilizer product mix supplied to Europe could change:
· Nitrogen: Nitrates will get an incentive over urea.
· Phosphates: TSP and SSP will get an incentive over DAP and MAP.
· Potassium: SOP and MOP will get an incentive over Potassium Nitrate.
· NPK’s: Import could reduce. It was already difficult to import NPK’s in the EU due to the Reach regulation. Now it will become even more attractive to import straight components or produce NPK’s in the EU..
6. Smaller or occasional importers may reduce or stop importing. CBAM is complicated, requires additional financial management, and carries risk. This is harder for smaller companies.
7. Some producers might stop offering to the EU. The amount of data and monitoring asked for is not a small, easy or cheap exercise. Price reductions asked for less green production may not be worth giving. Some producers may decide selling to Europe is not worth the effort.
8. Importers will start asking producers for guarantees on the CO2 declarations. This will be a part of future contract negotiations. If a producer’s real values (declared the year after import) are higher than the estimates he gave at the time of purchase, importers may start claiming compensation.
9. Traceability for products coming into the EU will increase. The options for traders to do spot trading will be more limited as they need support for all required data from the producer, and this the year after the sale. Long-term relations and trust between supplier and importer will become even more important.
10. CBAM legislation will generate a new business segment for specialized consultants, auditors, lawyers and financial advisors. Bureaucracy will increase, boxes will be ticked on paper, numbers will be filled. If the auditing part fails, then CBAM could become a pure paper exercise. All of it will finally be paid by the end user
Saturday, 15 November 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria : Dangote has sold two spot cargoes of 30,000t of granular urea each in the mid-high $390s/t FOB Lekki under its 11 November tender, with laycan 24-26 November and 28-30 November, respectively.
Azerbaijan’s Socar sold 5,000 t granular urea at $460/t FOB for delivery within the Black Sea region, the producer said 14 November.
Whether the cargo will be shipped in bulk or in big bags has yet to be confirmed, with confirmation of the load port (usually either Trabzon in Turkey or Batumi in Georgia) also awaited.
Last reported business by Socar was a 10,000 t granular sale via tender at $440/t FOB back in early November, with that consignment bound for Ukraine in big bags.
Analysis of today's market situation
The current situation of domestic urea market is characterized by continued stagnation and weakness. While the prices of the enterprises remain stable, there have been some minor fluctuations. However, the market sentiment is currently weak, and the downstream industry is also adopting a cautious and observational stance. In the short term, although there might be news about the upcoming Indian procurement, the pressure on the enterprises is increasing, so it is highly likely that there will be further fluctuations based on the response from the downstream industry.
Morning. Int'l paper saw Nov AG trade just shy of $410 once again y'day in otherwise thin activity, while Nola urea paper interest was largely unchanged/sideways. Mkts framed:
AG
Nov $405//$410 – traded $407
Dec $390//$405
Jan $380//$395
cfr Brazil
Nov $412//$420
Dec $398//$415
Jan $392//$403
Egypt
Nov $480//$500
Dec $450//$470
Jan $420//$465
Nola
Paper:
Nov $385//$395
Dec $376//$385
Jan $380//$390
Feb $385//$392
Mar $385//$395
Apr $370//$385
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $300//$328
Jan $295//$325
Feb $295//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
-UREA PRICES ARE GAINING ON TIGHT SUPPLY AND ANTICIPATION OF THE
UPCOMING 2.5 MILLION MT INDIA UREA TENDER
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE SLIDING ON LIMITED DEMAND, LOW
AFFORDABILITY AND SEASONALITY
– POTASH PRICES DECLINED FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SEPTEMBER
-UPWARD PRICE TREND IN AMMONIA EASED WITH MORE SUPPLIES COMING INTO THE MARKET
UREA
The international urea participants appear to position themselves for
the upcoming India urea tender. Prices are going up in most countries
with Qatar Energy reported to have achieved USD 415 PMT FOB in its
latest tender for 25-45 KT granular urea for December shipment. Prior
to the tender the most recent sale was by SIUCI at USD 410 PMT FOB.
Iranian official export price is set at USD 377 PMT FOB but already
Pardis achieved USD 380 PMT FOB. A small granular urea purchase tender
by TFC of Taiwan is reported at around the USD 420 PMT CFR mark. A
FUDAO of China export parcel is said to have changed hands at USD 405
PMT FOB. Reports of a BFI Brunei cargo also circulating at close to
USD 410 PMT FOB.
Dangote of Nigeria is tendering for the export of 2×30 KT with bids to
be valid until November 16th.
Based on the above, the expected L1 India CFR price would most likely
be above USD 420 PMT unless of course an outlier offer again will
upset the proceedings.
Bangladesh BCIC is tendering for 100 KT of granular urea in bags to be
shipped in equal parts to Mongla and Chittagong. This is the first
time a tender has been announced in Bangladesh since 2023 since
normally all imported urea will come from the Middle East on GG
formula-based terms.
Egyptian inquiry for early to mid-December shipments of granular urea
remain limited. No business has been reported since the earlier sale
of a modest volume at $507pt fob Damietta for early-December shipment
last week. Some producers in Egypt had been heard indicating at $500pt
fob earlier this week, with reports suggesting lower values have been
evident recently. Traders appear focused on placing earlier positions.
Regular buyers have cited shipment timings as basis for caution ahead
of the definitive phase of CBAM starting on 1 January 2026. Several
reports have suggested that modest vessel loading delays of up to
seven days in Egypt have also stymied demand. Where possible, some
buyers have been sourcing last minute shipments from further afield
suppliers able to offer at competitive levels. This includes product
for November loading in the Middle East and Nigeria.
The forward CFR paper market for Brazil on granular urea is as follows:
Nov $407//$420 – [Nov traded $419-$397 range l/w] – Dec $395//$415 –
[Dec traded $410 l/w] – Jan $385//$405 – [Jan traded $405-$403 l/w].
Brazil is in a unique position in that it draws substantial volumes
from sanctioned Iran, Venezuela and Russia at very competitive prices
in addition to importing huge quantities of ammonium sulphate from
China.
Argentina CFR price per current is reported at USD 430 PMT.
As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory level of China's urea
enterprises stood at 1,483,600 tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons
compared to the previous week, representing a month-over-month
decrease of 5.99%. The decrease in inventory levels among urea
enterprises during this period was primarily driven by the
implementation of new export policies, which helped boost market
activity domestically and improved the sales performance of urea
enterprises. However, as the price of urea began to rise, the pace of
new order transactions slowed down, leading to fluctuations in
inventory levels for some enterprises. Overall, there was a decrease
in the inventory levels of urea enterprises. The provinces with
reduced inventory levels during this period were: Anhui, Hainan,
Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi,
Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Chongqing. The provinces with increased
inventory levels were Hebei North, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning,
Qinghai, Shaanxi.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of
November 10, nearly 70% of the country's winter wheat has been sown.
By province, it is 55% in Henan, 75% in Shandong, over 70% in Anhui,
over 70% in Shaanxi, 45% in Jiangsu, and nearly 80% in Shanxi. Over
90% of winter rapeseed has been sown nationwide.
A decision on further export of urea will be decided at the end of the
year when the winter storage program will be evaluated on possible
surpluses for export.
Current export price in China is rumoured to be set at USD 405 PMT for
granular urea and USD 400 PMT FOB for prilled urea although some
transactions appear to have taken place sub USD 400 PMT FOB.
In summary, the urea market appears bullish and India L1 should be at
a much higher level than the previous levels of USD 398/402 CFR,
respectively.
PHOSPHATES
The phosphate market globally is softening as fourth-quarter demand is
weak and suppliers are lowering their offers to limit carryover
stocks. Looking at the market east of Suez, India has higher stocks
and limited supplier alternatives are giving buyers more negotiating
power. India will remain the primary destination for global DAP supply
over the next three months, allowing buyers to continue pushing prices
down. Rumours are circulating that DAP has been sold to India at USD
680 PMT CFR although the latest confirmed deal is at USD 724 PMT CFR.
If the USD 680 PMT CFR deal is confirmed, the DAP price in India has
fallen USD 115 PMT in the last three months.
India’s DAP imports April-September is reported at 3.83 million MT, up
a staggering 95% Y/Y from 1.97 million MT. The 2025 import forecast is
at 6 million MT, up from 4.5 million MT in 2024.
Chinese phosphate exports are under severe pressure as substantial
increases in sulphur and ammonia prices are putting production costs
at parity with FOB export prices. Sulphur prices are reported at
between USD 450-460 PMT, up from USD 308 PMT in September and as low
as USD 108 PMT at the start of 2025. Chinese production cost of DAP is
now assessed at between USD 680-700 PMT. The China Phosphate and
Compound Fertilizer Industry Association (CPFIA) raised guidance
prices for DAP and MAP in the domestic market on 12 November because
the recent rally in sulphur prices have increased production cost
pressures for producers. The latest guidance prices are as follows:
· 4,150 yuan/t ($584/t) first-stop delivered to northeast regions
for 18-46 DAP, up by Yn200/t
· Yn3,650/t ex-works Hubei for 11-44 MAP, up by Yn300/t
· Yn3,950/t ex-works Guizhou for 10-50 MAP, up by Yn100/t
The US phosphate market remains uncertain heading into late 2025.
Prices have continued to soften because of weak demand but liquidity
is still limited and buyers are hesitant. In the near-term, prices
will soften as buyer attention moves from autumn application towards
winter fill. But stock fill demand is less urgent so prices will need
to decline further to attract material interest, and it will be
difficult to attract seaborne supply as prices become less
competitive.
Brazilian MAP is under pressure, with prices trending down owing to
low liquidity and persistent bearish sentiment. Farmers remain focused
on the current planting season and are hesitant to commit at current
prices. MAP prices are expected to keep declining over the next
quarter and it is not inconceivable to see CFR prices drift close to
USD 600 PMT, as off-season demand remains weak and buyers maintain a
preference for lower-grade alternatives.
Brazil’s combined Jan-Oct phosphate fertilizer imports are still at
record high despite October decline.
Brazil imported 1.14Mt DAP/MAP/NP/NPK/TSP/SSP in October, a 5.6%
decrease from 1.21Mt in the same month of 2024 and down on the 1.24Mt
imported in October 2023, according to updated data from Trade Data
Monitor (TDM). Combined phosphate fertiliser imports in
January-October reached 12.1Mt, up 8.1% yr-on-yr and still well above
the previous 11.5Mt record in Jan-Oct 2021. The latest data show that
MAP/DAP imports in the ten-month period dropped while TSP, SSP and NP
imports skyrocketed.
MAP imports again crash in October
Brazil’s October MAP imports crashed 38% in October to just 273,171t
amid extremely weak affordability and growing P2O5 stocks. The drop
follows a 60% slump in comparable MAP imports in September. Imports
from Russia in October fell 16% to 150,226t, those from Saudi Arabia
declined 32% to 86,433t, and imports from Morocco crashed 83% to
19,088t.
Brazil’s Jan-Oct MAP imports are now down 24% yr-on-yr to 2.85Mt, the
lowest volume for this period since 2018. Volumes in Jan-Oct from
Russia declined 33% to 1.28Mt from 1.92Mt, those from Morocco dropped
32% to 660,710t, imports from Saudi Arabia increased 12% to 718,871t
and those from the US fell 13% to 63,309t.
Full-year 2024 MAP imports to Brazil reached 4.21Mt, a 19% decrease
from 5.20Mt in 2023.
Brazil imported 142,828t DAP in January-October, down 13% yr-on-yr,
including 53,509t from Saudi Arabia and 46,595t from the US. DAP
imports from Morocco fell 58% to 26,133t during the ten-month period.
Morocco’s Jan-Sep fertiliser exports up 7%.
OCP exported 9.6Mt phosphate fertilisers in the first nine months of
2025, a 6.8% rise yr-on-yr from 9.0Mt, according to latest Office Des
Changes data.
September export volumes jumped 16% yr-on-yr to 1.1Mt from 984,867t,
meaning average exports of 1.15Mt per month in Q3 after June exports
at 1.2-1.3Mt. Fourth quarter phosphate fertiliser exports are forecast
to also be at 1.15Mt per month average.
Though yet to be confirmed, the Jan-Sep exports are understood to
include a rise in TSP exports to roughly 2.7Mt from 1.8Mt, a rise in
DAP/MAP exports to 5.65Mt from 5.35Mt, an increase in NPK exports to
roughly 775,000t from 638,101t, and a slump in NP/NPS exports to
around 400,000t from 1.1Mt.
January through December 2024 exports reached a record 12.37Mt, up 13%
yr-on-yr from 10.95Mt in the same period 2023 and 30% higher than
9.52Mt in 2022. These volumes were 1Mt above the 11.3Mt OCP exported
in 2020, the previous record.
Further increases expected in 2025
With OCP’s capacity rising to roughly 16.0Mt through 2025, the company
is now forecast to export 13.1Mt and produce 13.6-13.8Mt phosphate
fertilisers in 2025 (roughly 85% of capacity).
Notably DAP/MAP/TSP exports are now forecast to rise as much as 1.6Mt
in 2025 due partly to the absence of 800,000t NPS sales to Ethiopia.
The expected 2025 total exports reflect a roughly 4.0Mt rise in
availability over three years from OCP.
Morocco’s January-September ammonia imports reached 1.25Mt, down 6.9%
yr-on-yr, while sulphur imports in the first nine months of 2025
reached 5.29Mt, down 15% yr-on-yr. Fertiliser imports (mainly MOP for
NPK production) in Jan-September declined 1.4% yr-on-yr to 657,947t.
The ammonia and sulphur drops come despite the ongoing rise in
downstream production as new capacity comes online. The drop can be
partly attributed to higher TSP production.
In line with the gains in fertilisers and phosacid exports,
raw-material imports for OCP surged in 2024. Morocco’s ammonia imports
in the January to December period reached 1.85Mt, up 17% yr-on-yr.
Sulphur imports in the same period surged 27% to 8.29Mt. Fertiliser
imports between January and December reached 919,376t, up 12%
yr-on-yr.
Australia's buying cycle is starting later than usual, with MAP demand
typically ramping up in December. Current MAP values for Australian
imports have fallen to $710–714/t fob, sharply lower than late-October
prices, as farmers hold out for further declines. This delay is
expected to reduce Chinese MAP inflows and create opportunities for
Moroccan and Saudi suppliers to capture market share — much needed
while buyers in other markets are also on the sidelines. Domestic SSP
production ceased at Australian manufacturer Dyno Nobel's Geelong
facility in October, and while imports will rise, there are
expectations of substitution towards MAP from SSP — although this will
likely only materialise next season. For now, late buying could
compress the procurement window, forcing some buyers to accept higher
freight premiums if global supply tightens.
POTASH
Granular potash prices declined for the first time since early
September, slipping $5/t amid widespread talk of lower prices to be
confirmed next week. Other benchmarks were steady but concerns over
affordability in key consumer markets persist and are weighing on
liquidity and market sentiment. The industry still awaits the
potential start to negotiations over China’s next supply contract, but
no fresh updates were heard this week. Brazilian potash prices were
assessed at $345–355/t CFR, and a lack of farmer buying has alarmed
suppliers, as MOP is often the first nutrient to be cut as belts
tighten. At the beginning of November last year, farmers had already
purchased about 15% of MOP demand for the 2025/26 soybean crop in
Brazil, one participant reported, adding that buying has not yet
reached 2% for the coming season. Outside Brazil, market sentiment
remains relatively stable. Parts of Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam
and the Philippines, are facing logistical issues following the recent
typhoons. Although this has brought some upwards pressure to potash
prices, standard-grade MOP remained unchanged at the $360-390/t CFR
range.
AMMONIA
In a quiet week for the market, there was good news for buyers West of
Suez as Trinidad energy chiefs delayed a period of deeper natgas cuts,
meaning plants in the Caribbean are running strongly. Although
Nutrien’s operations at Point Lisas remain silent, units at other
manufacturers are said to be operating at close to nameplate capacity
given the additional feedstock supply. Combined with a rebound in
output at North African producers and shutdowns at chemicals plants in
Belgium and the Netherlands that will hit import demand, upward price
pressure has eased. The supply situation in the East is also in decent
health as Chinese producers have started to export regularly, and
Indonesian plants are performing robustly. In addition, the imminent
restart of a major Saudi unit following three months of unexpected
downtime will boost availability in the near future. Demand in India
and Northeast Asia is steady, with few buyers in either region
entering the spot market with any great frequency. As such, traders
are likely to bring more spot cargoes from East to West in late
2025/early 2026 in order to soak up some of that surplus. Prices are
assessed as unchanged ahead of the next confirmed business
The recent elevation of phosphate to the US Critical Minerals List is not a celebration of a resource; it is a forced reckoning with an unavoidable geopolitical reality. The mineral that underpins global food production and fuels the emerging battery economy is concentrated overwhelmingly in one nation: the Kingdom of Morocco. For both Washington and Rabat, this structural dependency demands a strategic alliance defined by cold, hard pragmatism, not diplomatic rhetoric.
The global fertilizer market is intrinsically unstable, prone to manipulation by dominant, politically adversarial producers who have historically weaponized exports to serve their own domestic interests, exporting scarcity and inflation to the world. The only counterweight to this perpetual instability is Morocco’s geologic dominance. Commanding over 70% of the world’s known phosphate rock reserves, Morocco holds the single most critical supply assurance for centuries, a structural monopoly that cannot be diversified away. This concentration of power is both a strategic advantage for Morocco and an acute source of risk for every dependent consumer market.
For the United States, the challenge lies in reconciling competing policy objectives. On one hand, the “Critical Mineral” designation demands securing stable, long-term supply from reliable allies. On the other hand, the impulse toward domestic protectionism has historically driven policies that destabilize the key supply partner. The imposition of high countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers years ago created the very supply shock the critical designation is meant to prevent, validating the vulnerability it aimed to correct. The subsequent, necessary reduction of these tariffs tacitly admitted a policy failure: national security imperatives must override narrow domestic industrial protectionism when dealing with an essential resource from a proven strategic ally.
Morocco’s industrial strategy, executed through its state-owned OCP Group, is moving beyond simple extraction. The pivot toward processing high-value products like phosphoric acid and finished fertilizers transforms Morocco into the undeniable gatekeeper of global food supply chains. Furthermore, its rapid embrace of the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery market—which uses phosphate as a core component—is fundamentally reshaping its role from agricultural supplier to future energy partner.
This shift presents a material challenge to the US In the race to establish LFP supply chains mandated by its own clean energy policies, the US is currently playing catch-up. Heavy investment from rival global industrial players is rapidly consolidating control over Morocco’s LFP chemical processing infrastructure, threatening to divert the necessary feedstock away from Western manufacturers. The structural reality of Morocco’s reserves, coupled with the rapid industrial engagement of its competitors, demands that Washington move beyond policy reaction to active, targeted investment in the Moroccan value chain.
Crucially, Morocco’s commitment to sustainability is a matter of both necessity and competitive advantage. The billions invested in massive renewable energy projects and water desalination systems serve two functions: they mitigate the high operational risks posed by regional water scarcity, and they create a premium, environmentally compliant supply source that differentiates Morocco from less regulated, less responsible global producers. This strategic commitment effectively raises the environmental bar for the entire industry, creating compliance pressure on international partners.
The alliance between America and Morocco cannot rest on history or sentiment. It must be institutionalized as a cold, pragmatic mechanism for shared risk management. Both nations must leverage their existing trade frameworks to guarantee uninterrupted supply, secure logistics, and align investment in the green, LFP-focused future.
The stability of the global food system and the resilience of the clean energy transition hinge entirely on this single resource nexus. The Critical Minerals designation has forced the confrontation; now, the US and Morocco must forge a durable, strategically rational alliance that manages the concentrated risks of Morocco’s monopoly for the benefit of global stability
Grain and oilseed deliveries to Australia's major bulk handlers have been slower so far this harvest partly due to wet weather, falling short of deliveries made in prior seasons.
Total receivals into Australia's major bulk handlers — GrainCorp, CBH and Bunge (Viterra) — reached 6.2mn t as of around the start of this week, 3.5mn t lower than the 9.7mn t delivered at around the same period in the last winter crop harvest. Bulk handler grain receivals are a rough proxy for harvest pace in absence of official data.
Harvest progress is picking up in Western Australia (WA), with weekly receivals into CBH sites rising by 1.2mn t in the week ending 9 November despite 5-25mm of rain falling across most crop regions mid-week, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology data show. Recent dry weather, which is forecast to continue for the remainder of the week, will likely prompt harvest pace to pick up in the state.
Deliveries to GrainCorp's sites in New South Wales (NSW) were strong, increasing by almost 1mn t on the week, although rains interrupted some harvest deliveries, according to the company.
The harvest in Queensland is winding down, but growers will likely have pushed to harvest as much as possible before heavier rains are expected to fall from 13 November and continue into next week, according to several meteorological models.
In contrast, the harvest is yet to meaningfully start in southern crops, in part because these regions remain colder and some crops have yet to finish developing, according to one market participant. Deliveries to South Australia-based bulk handler Bunge (Viterra) and across GrainCorp's Victoria sites are below 107,000t as of around the start of the week compared to almost 3.5mn t received in GrainCorp sites in NSW and Queensland.
By Edward Dunlop
Australia 2025-26 harvest receivals '000t
Total YTD Previous report ±
CBH
Albany 213 95 118
Esperance 947 654 293
Geraldton 582 238 344
Kwinana North 587 276 311
Kwinana South 276 99 177
Total 2,604 1,362 1,242
Graincorp
Queensland 1,464 1,274 190
New South Wales 2,034 1,093 941
Victoria 46 22 24
Total 3,543 2,388 1,155
Bunge
Western region 33 9 25
Central region 27 8 19
Eastern region 2 0 2
Total 61 17 45
Total – All 6,209 3,767 2,442
Receivals at same time last year ('000t) 9,732
Harvest pace vs last year (± '000t) -3,523
Total YTD is all grain receivals for the approximate October marketing year to the date of the most recent harvest report,
10 Nov for GrainCorp and week ending 9 Nov for Bunge and CBH.
Previous report is the total receivals in the respective week prior.
— CBH, Graincorp, Bunge, Viterra
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 “𝗡𝗼 𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗡𝗼 𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲” 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁?
The phosphate rock market has entered a strange equilibrium — not rising, not falling, just quietly holding its ground. Prices in Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt have remained largely unchanged for weeks. No supply crunch, no demand surge. For most industrial buyers, this appears to be a comfortable “wait-and-see” phase.
But comfort can be deceptive.
Behind the calm surface, cost pressures are building. Feedstock prices — particularly 𝘀𝘂𝗹𝗽𝗵𝘂𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗮 — have jumped by $𝟰𝟬–𝟲𝟬 per tonne this quarter. If these increases coincide with stronger demand, it could push upstream, testing producers’ ability to hold their current offers. Meanwhile, India’s DAP inventories are shrinking, and a fresh import tender expected in December could reignite demand across the chain.
In other words, the current “no war, no peace” balance won’t last forever. Freight from Morocco to India remains the most competitive at $23–25/t, but once major buyers move, FOB prices are likely to adjust upward quickly.
So, how long will this calm last? Probably not much longer.
For buyers who still haven’t secured their Q1 2026 supply, this quiet period might be the last window to lock in favorable terms.
Morning. On Int'l paper, Nov AG found value once again at $408 y'day. Dec Nola paper traded $480, down $5 from day prior. Mkts framed:
AG
Nov $406//$412 – traded $408
Dec $400///$410
Jan $380//$395
cfr Brazil
Nov $412//$420
Dec $400//$415
Jan $390//$408
Egypt
Nov $480//$500
Dec $450//$470
Jan $420//$465
Nola
Paper:
Nov $385//$395
Dec $375//$385 – traded $380
Jan $380//$390
Feb $385//$392
Mar $385//$395
Apr $370//$385
Option: Jan $405 traded $7
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $300//$328
Jan $295//$325
Feb $295//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of November 10, nearly 70% of the country's winter wheat has been sown. By province, it is 55% in Henan, 75% in Shandong, over 70% in Anhui, over 70% in Shaanxi, 45% in Jiangsu, and nearly 80% in Shanxi. Over 90% of winter rapeseed has been sown nationwide.
Heard Yihua also sold another cargo to Pakistan.
Singapore, 12 November (Argus) — Taiwan Fertilizer has bought 6,000t of granular urea at around $420/t cfr in its purchase tender, which closed today.
The importer has requested that the cargo arrives in Taiwan in early January. The cargoes can be of either Southeast Asian or Chinese origin.
Morning. Int'l paper saw support come in on nearby AG y'day, as Nov traded $408 and Dec bids moved higher. In Nola, Dec/Q1 paper traded up to mid-$380s/mid-$390s respectively before meeting selling resistance at those levels.
AG
Nov $405//$415 – traded $408
Dec $397//$405
Jan $380//$395
cfr Brazil
Nov $410//$420
Dec $400//$415
Jan $390//$408
Egypt
Nov $480//$505
Dec $450//$470
Jan $420//$465
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $387
Paper:
Nov $385//$395
Dec $377//$385 – traded $385
Jan $383//$390
Feb $385//$392
Mar $385//$395
(Q1 traded $395, $390)
Apr $370//$385
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $300//$328
Jan $295//$325
Feb $295//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $695//$735
Q1 $680//$720
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655