Morning. Prior to IPL tender close today, Jan AG traded $392 y'day while Jan cfr Brazil held value in low-$390s. In Nola, Urea paper saw Dec traded $377, while DAP paper traded $5 higher on Jan/Feb.
AG
Nov $405//$412
Dec $388//$400
Jan $385//$395 – traded $392
Cfr Brazil
Nov $410//$415
Dec $397//$405
Jan $385//$395 – traded $391, $390
Egypt
Nov $480//$500
Dec $440//$465
Jan $420//$455
Nola
Paper:
Nov $380//$393
Dec $377//$382 – traded $377
Jan $375//$383
Feb $375//$385
Mar $375//$387
Apr $370//$385
May $370//$380
Q1 $375//$385
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $290//$315
Jan $290//$325
Feb $290//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $725//$750
Dec $655//$695
Jan $645//$655 – traded $650
Feb $645//$655 – traded $650
Q1 $645//$655
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $615//$640
Jan $610//$650
AMS Brazil
Nov $165//$178
Dec $165//$175
Jan $155//$172
The long-awaited draft CBAM benchmarks have finally leaked out of Brussels, and they are already reshaping the game for anyone trading fertilisers into the EU.
After going through the document, one thing becomes clear: the benchmarks are higher than many expected. And when Brussels sets a higher benchmark, it means only one thing for importers – a lower CBAM bill in the early years.
But let’s not celebrate too quickly.
The Commission also quietly confirmed the formula for the Free Allocation Adjustment (FAA) – the discount that importers receive while free allowances in the EU ETS are being phased out. The math is simple:
FAA = Benchmark × CSCF × CBAM factor × Mass of imports
Higher benchmark means a higher FAA, which means a lower CBAM cost. But every year, the CBAM factor shrinks until free allocation hits zero. After that, there is no discount. Welcome to the full carbon price.
For fertilisers – ammonia, urea, AN, CAN, UAN, nitrates and phosphates – this is massive. These are some of the most CO₂-intensive products in global trade. The difference between a 1.8 versus 2.3 tCO₂ per tonne benchmark can decide whether a trader pays millions or survives another season.
And, of course, while the US is cutting tariffs to bring food inflation down, the EU continues to wall itself off with an alphabet soup of CBAM, tariffs, ETS, CSCF and transitional periods. Brussels says it is climate policy. Everyone else calls it what it is: a very creative trade barrier.
Either way, the rules are now clearer. If you sell fertilisers into Europe, the time to calculate your CO₂ truth is now. Because soon, the CBAM train will stop giving out free tickets
Analysis of today's market situation
The current domestic urea market situation shows that enterprise prices continue to rise strongly. Under the influence of market sentiment, the pace of market follow-up has slowed down. There is a possibility that the market may experience a period of stagnation or a correction. However, the impact of upcoming or delayed Indian tender announcements on the market should also be considered. Given the fundamental factors, it is likely that the adjustments will occur as planned or be postponed, after which downstream industries will continue to make purchases at favorable prices.
Export Loading of Fertilizers on the RZD Network Increases by More Than 20% in the First 10 Months of 2025
Export transportation of chemical and mineral fertilizers on the Russian Railways (RZD) network continues to demonstrate confident growth. From January to October 2025, loading volumes reached 35.6 million tonnes, which is 21.4% higher than in the same period last year.
Ports remain the primary destination for export cargo flows. A total of 29.6 million tonnes were shipped to port infrastructure — an 18.5% increase compared with September–October 2024. The North-Western ports recorded the strongest performance, receiving 26.2 million tonnes of fertilizers, up 21.8% year-on-year. Shipments to southern ports amounted to 3.3 million tonnes, showing a slight 0.8% decrease.
A significant rise was also observed in exports processed through border crossings, which handled almost 6 million tonnes, a substantial 38.1% increase.
Several regions played a leading role in supporting overall loading dynamics:
🔹 Perm Krai — 15.7 million tonnes (+4%)
🔹 Murmansk Region — 12.7 million tonnes (+2.4%)
🔹 Vologda Region — 5 million tonnes (+17.9%)
In total, fertilizer loading on the RZD network reached 58.5 million tonnes for the 10-month period, exceeding the result for the same timeframe in 2024 by 4.7%. In October alone, loading volumes increased by 6.6%, amounting to 6 million tonnes.
These results underscore the resilience of Russia’s logistics and transport infrastructure and highlight the growing global demand for fertilizer products — a key segment of the country’s export portfolio
China coal supposedly sold 14kt at $413pt fob
Morning. Urea paper values recovered y'day from levels seen on Monday – Q1 Nola strip traded $375, w/ Feb-March at $5-$9 premium, while Jan cfr Brazil traded low-$390s. On DAP, Q1 paper traded $645 (big drop on prior settlement prices).
AG
Nov $405//$412
Dec $385//$400
Jan $380//$395
Cfr Brazil
Nov $410//$415
Dec $393//$405
Jan $390//$395 – traded $390, $393
Egypt
Nov $480//$500
Dec $445//$470
Jan $420//$460
Nola
Paper:
Nov $380//$393
Dec $370//$385
Jan $370//$380 – traded $370, $375
Feb $375//$385 – traded $380
Mar $378//$390 – traded $384
Apr $373//$385 – traded $379
May $370//$380 – traded$370
Q1 $375//$388 – traded $375
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $290//$315
Jan $290//$325
Feb $290//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $725//$750
Dec $655//$695
Jan $645//$655
Feb $645//$655
Q1 $640//$655 – traded $645
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $615//$640
Jan $610//$650
AMS Brazil
Nov $165//$178
Dec $165//$175
Jan $155//$172
As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory level of China's urea enterprises stood at 1,437,200 tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons compared to the previous week, representing a decrease of 3.13% on a month-over-month basis. During this period, the price of urea showed a gradual upward trend. There was a notable increase in reserve demand in the Northeast, leading some enterprises to significantly reduce their inventory levels. The changes in inventory levels for urea enterprises in the main production and consumption regions were mixed, with some areas experiencing price increases but limited reductions in inventory levels. Overall, this contributed to a decrease in the inventory levels of urea enterprises. The provinces with reduced inventory levels during this period were: Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. The provinces with increased inventory levels were: Anhui, Gansu, Hebei, Liaoning, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shandong, and Yunnan.
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/petrovietnams-chemical-arm-oil-refinery-joint-venture-seal-deal-in-kuwait-post332715.vnp
Morning. Softer tone in Q1 yday as Int'l paper saw Jan Brazil trade down to $384 (-$11 from Fri) to then find support again. In Nola, Jan paper supported in mid-$360s, while Q1 traded $375 ($388 on Fri), and offered there at COB.
AG
Nov $405//$412
Dec $385//$400
Jan $380//$395
Cfr Brazil
Nov $410//$415
Dec $392//$402
Jan $384//$390 – traded $388, $385, $384, $389
Egypt
Nov $480//$500
Dec $450//$470
Jan $420//$460
Nola
Paper:
Nov $380//$393
Dec $370//$383
Jan $365//$370 – traded $370, $365
Feb $365//$375
Mar $365//$375
Apr $365//$380
Q1 $365//$375 – traded $375
UAN Nola
Nov $315//$330
Dec $290//$315
Jan $290//$325
Feb $290//$320
DAP Nola
Nov $700//$735
Dec $675//$720
Q1 $650//$705
MAP Brazil
Nov $645//$665
Dec $625//$655
AMS Brazil
Nov $165//$178
Dec $165//$175
Jan $155//$172
[Urea] On November 18, the daily production capacity of the urea industry was 202,900 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, it increased by 20,000 tons; the current operational rate is 83.91%, an improvement of 2.98% compared to 80.93% in the same period last year.
LONDON (ICIS)– In the US, import tariffs introduced in April have now been lifted for fertilizers including urea, AN, UAN, AS, DAP, MAP and TSP. Ammonia will likely be assessed on a case-by-case basis, while MOP was already exempt.
Tariffs were introduced in the 10-30% range, with most countries at 10%, while Russia was exempt.
China domestic market:
Analysis of today's market situation
After the weekend, the domestic urea market saw a slight loosening of enterprise prices, followed by the conclusion of a reasonable number of new orders. However, the subsequent transaction situation was once again average, and the market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and stalemate in this range. There will be an announcement of the Indian tender this week, which might have a boosting effect on sentiment, so the current situation is expected to persist for a short period.
Fertilizer Industry China Morning Report – 2025-11-17
❤ Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market fluctuated upward. After news of export quotas pushed market prices higher, downstream resistance to high prices increased, obstructing upward price transmission. The market showed strong stalemate and wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand is prominent, with limited effective support in the market. In the short term, the trend is weak, running in a volatile consolidation.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, the supply and demand of the synthetic ammonia market continued to improve, and prices rose sharply. With prices remaining high, downstream procurement was cautious, and local demand weakened, making trading more average. By the weekend, local market focus loosened somewhat. Short-term rigid demand still exists, and the expected downside space of the market is limited.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Last week, the ammonium sulfate market fluctuated narrowly, with significant differentiation between granular and crystalline products. As raw material plants reduced operating rates, supply contracted, leading to a clear intention to hold prices firm and test increases. Downstream acceptance was average, mainly purchasing for rigid demand, while most held a wait-and-see attitude toward future trends. In the short term, the ammonium sulfate market is expected to continue small-scale fluctuations.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market remained stable. Ammonium chloride enterprises executed previous orders, with low-price sellers showing reluctance to sell. Some enterprises had already pre-sold this month’s production and temporarily stopped taking new orders. Compound fertilizer enterprises purchased for rigid demand. In the short term, ammonium chloride market demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and prices remain stable.
❤ Melamine: Last week, the domestic melamine market operated in narrow consolidation. Current market stimuli are limited, and most participants adopted a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises are expected to adjust flexibly according to their own order situations, awaiting other stimulating factors for guidance.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizers:
• Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to rise. Hubei 55 powder was quoted at 3,650 yuan/ton ex-factory, with actual negotiations. Downstream procurement of high-priced raw materials was cautious, mainly buying for rigid demand. However, raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid still showed upward trends, so high-level operation is expected to continue in the short term.
• Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market remained firm. Raw material prices continued to rise, significantly pressuring costs. Enterprises still did not offer quotations. Market supply was relatively tight, prices remained strong, and demand was winding down, with downstream maintaining demand-based procurement.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Last week, domestic potash fertilizer prices continued to rise. Traders showed strong reluctance to sell, and market circulation volumes were extremely limited. Actual transactions were mostly negotiated based on orders. Potassium sulfate manufacturers, driven by raw materials, also rose slowly. Most manufacturers continued to take orders, and transactions were acceptable.
❤ Compound Fertilizer: Last week, domestic compound fertilizer prices continued to rise firmly. Current mainstream ex-factory reference for 45% S (3*15) is 2,950–3,050 yuan/ton. Rising raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia, and monoammonium phosphate significantly boosted compound fertilizer costs, leading enterprises to gradually raise quotations. With wheat fertilizer demand winding down, winter storage pre-orders continued to advance. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is experiencing narrow upward adjustments.
Moscow court rules for #Uralkali Trading in claim against #Yara
The Moscow Arbitration Court upheld the claim of Uralkali Trading against Norway’s Yara International on recovery of approximately 18.3 bln rubles ($226 mln) in connection with the debt, according to the cases database.
🔹 "The claim to be upheld in full," the case papers indicate.
The claim was filed into the court in March 2025. Uralkali Trading claimed from Yara International damages of $67.55 mln and 66.5 mln euros, interest of $25.9 mln and 25.8 mln euro, losses due to the vessels demurrage ($7.8 mln) and early loading (unloading) of vessels (10,500 euro), and interest amounting to $3 mln and 4,000 euros.
🔹 The majority of other counterparts of the company have completely settled their debts for the delivery of fertilizers, Uralkali Trading told TASS.
"Uralkali Trading welcomes the award of the arbitration court to uphold its claim against the parent company of the Yara Group – Yara International ASA. Among the debtors from European countries, the majority of counterparties paid their debts to our company in full. Actions of the parent company of the Yara Group, which lead to the failure of the group to pay for deliveries, and absence of a meaningful dialogue to settle the situation, jeopardize provision of stable deliveries of fertilizers feeding the population of the planet from Latin America to Africa," Uralkali Trading said in the comment.
Another conference comes to an end as the European Sulphuric Acid Association (ESA) Catania assembly wraps up today – and what a busy event it was!
Here's the highlights from the show floor:
– Feedstock sulphur cost burden a serious headache for burners
– Competition puts bearish pressure on UK acid pricing
– Morocco’s OCP to skip Q1 purchasing – traders
– Awards for India’s MCFL, FACT purchase tenders
ESA delegates gathered in Catania this week, against a backdrop of firm offer pricing across the globe.
In Europe, despite a seasonal slowdown in domestic demand for fertilizer production, sulphuric acid offers are broadly stable-to-firm; largely thanks to a continued increase in burner feedstock sulphur pricing.
Some burners have cut run-rates on the high cost of sulphur – and others have reportedly purchased smelter acid to supply contract customers, rather than shoulder the burden.
Meanwhile, a flurry of forward tonnes heard fixed by exporters in Japan and China have demonstrated bullish sentiment for Q1 pricing; while import tenders in Indonesia and India have shown a similar upward trend for prompt business also.
As for phosphate fertilizer producer OCP, the Moroccan major has apparently sunk speculation it would return to the acid market in mid-November to buy for Q1 2026; instead declining to commit to any purchases – and further opening the trade route from Europe to Chile just as annual import contract talks kick into high gear