Urea
Algeria : Sorfert has traded a cargo of 5-6,000t of granular urea at $455/t FOB Arzew for 2H January shipment to a nearby market. It follows the sale of 30,000t of granular urea last week at $426/t FOB for late-Jan/early-Feb shipment to the US Gulf.
Potash is one of the most strategically important commodities in global agriculture and Saskatchewan’s Elk Point Basin is the world’s most prolific potash region, representing over 30% of global production.
Buffalo Potash is advancing the Disley Project in the heart of the basin, adjacent to two of the world’s largest solution mines within an established, infrastructure-rich mining district.
China–Canada trade reset 🇨🇳🇨🇦
China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1, easing a major trade blockage after years of tensions.
In return, Ottawa is lowering duties on Chinese EVs to the MFN rate (6.1%). Xi called it a “turnaround” in relations.
Before the dispute:
• China was Canada’s top canola buyer
• ~5–6 mln tonnes of Canadian canola seed imported annually
• Plus ~2 mln tonnes of canola meal
• Total canola exports to China worth ~CAD 5B/year (~USD 3.7B)
• That’s 30%+ of Canada’s total canola export value
Under punitive tariffs, flows collapsed in 2025
Brazil’s fertilizer purchases slow on high prices
16 Jan 2026 17:00 (+05:00 GMT)
Sao Paulo, 16 January (Argus) — Brazilian fertilizer purchases to supply the 2025-26 second corn crop are slightly lagging the prior year's pace because farmers are postponing final nitrogen-based urea purchases and holding out for more attractive prices.
Farmers had purchased around 75pc of all their fertilizer needs to plant the second corn crop through late December, around 5-10 percentage points below the same period for last year's second crop. Planting for the second corn crop begins in mid-to-late January and the harvest ends in July-August.
Buyers continue to postpone fertilizer purchases as they wait for lower prices in the import and domestic markets. The trend of postponements started around two crops ago, marking a change in Brazil's purchasing dynamics from when farmers sought to guarantee as much volume as possible before the planting, to avoid supply and logistics bottlenecks. But higher fertilizer and lower commodity prices led farmers to wait before concluding deals.
Most volumes still open to be purchased are of urea, as the high volatility and prices above those of last year prevented farmers from committing further. Granular urea prices reached $428/metric tonne (t) cfr Brazil on 15 January, according to Argus assessment, above the $395/t cfr from the same week a year earlier.
Granular urea prices in Brazil in 2025 remained above the year before, with the difference reaching up to $140/t on 7 August, with prices at $488/t cfr.
Purchases for the 2025-26 corn crop are ahead of pace the most in central-western Mato Grosso state, at 85-90pc, compared with up to 95pc last season. The state is usually the first to start buying inputs as it is also among the first to begin planting.
Purchases in southern Parana state — the second main grain producer and a key negotiating hub — are at around 75pc, a more than 10 percentage point lag from the same period for the 2024-25 crop.
Farmers and blenders have focused on purchasing compacted ammonium sulphate (AS), leading to a 31pc increase in imports in 2025 from the previous year. A more attractive price of compacted AS compared with urea motivated buyers to change part of their urea needs for AS, seeking to reduce production costs amid a low profit crop.
The increase in fertilizer prices is not in line with the trend for corn prices. Granular urea prices rose by 8pc from a year earlier in the import market and by 7pc in Rondonopolis city, according to Argus assessments, while corn prices in Mato Grosso state were at R49.88 ($9.26)/60kg bag by 15 January, an 8pc drop from a year earlier.
Market participants point out that the remaining volume may not be purchased because farmers continue to face problems to access credit lines and the grain's profitability is not supporting new purchases. This would mean that only a small volume will be purchased in the coming weeks until the start of planting.
Soybean purchases maintain pace
Fertilizer purchases to supply the 2026-27 soybean crop are estimated at 15pc of all needs by early January.
The pace is mostly in line with the previous year. Purchases of phosphate volumes, especially of SSP, picked up for the 2026-27 soybean crop. Purchases for the 2025-26 crop at this time a year prior were focused mostly on potash.
A wave of SSP deals were reported in August-October in the Brazilian domestic market, mainly in Mato Grosso, for delivery in the first half of 2026 because prices ofdomestically produced SSP were at lower levels than imported SSP volumes.
The 18-23pc SSP prices averaged $309/t fob Mato Grosso in August-October, down from $345/t fob in the same period in 2024. In the same three-month period, 19-20pc SSP price in the import market averaged $213/t cfr.
Recent increases in SSP prices because of higher production costs halted deals for the fertilizer. In the domestic market, buyers point out that availability is tight, while producers withdrew offers to reconsider their prices.
The trend extended to the import market, with offers for 19pc increasing from around $180/t cfr in late October to $233/t cfr on 15 January. Prices of 20pc SSP rose to $260/t cfr from $210-220/t cfr in the same period.
Brazilian buyers should resume purchases to supply the oilseed crop by the end of the first quarter, when the 2025-26 second corn crop planting will advance.
Sichuan AMP: our company's new batch of Single Superphosphate (SSP) has been shipped and is scheduled to arrive in Australia between February and March, perfectly timed to meet the demand for Australia's 2026 planting season. We are committed to providing Australian customers with stable, reliable and high-quality fertilizers, helping customers achieve a bountiful harvest.
Northbrook, IL and Singapore, 15 January 2026 – CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, Trafigura, a market leader in the global commodities industry, and TFG Marine, a leading global marine fuel supplier, today announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to facilitate the adoption of low-carbon ammonia as a marine fuel.
Building on the successful collaboration between CF Industries and Trafigura in the shipment of low-carbon ammonia, this agreement establishes a framework for the parties to work together on advancing low-carbon ammonia as a marine fuel, supporting the global shipping industry's emissions-reduction efforts.
Under the MOU, CF Industries, Trafigura and TFG Marine will collaborate on key initiatives to facilitate the adoption of low-carbon ammonia as a marine fuel, including market development, stakeholder engagement, and bunkering logistics planning. The collaboration will initially focus on the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe.
CF Industries will leverage its low-carbon ammonia production and export capabilities at its Donaldsonville, Louisiana, complex. Trafigura will contribute its expertise in commodity logistics and market development, while TFG Marine, a joint venture between Trafigura, Frontline and Golden Ocean Group, will leverage its global marine fuel supply network and bunkering capabilities to support last-mile delivery solutions, coordinate ammonia bunkering demand, and transport ammonia to bunkering hubs globally.
“We are pleased to collaborate with industry leaders such as Trafigura and TFG Marine to establish the supply chain necessary to meet the expected transition of the marine shipping industry to low-carbon ammonia as a fuel,” said Bert Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, CF Industries.
"This agreement brings together the critical components needed to advance low-carbon ammonia as a viable marine fuel," said Patricio Norris, Global Head of Ammonia and LPG at Trafigura. "Through this collaboration with CF Industries and TFG Marine, we are combining world-class production capabilities with our global logistics and bunkering network to support the maritime industry's transition to cleaner fuels."
"Our global bunkering infrastructure and operational expertise position us to play a key role in delivering low-carbon ammonia fuel solutions to the shipping industry. This collaboration with CF Industries and Trafigura enables us to develop the supply chain and logistics capabilities needed to make low-carbon ammonia bunkering a commercial reality for vessel operators worldwide," said Kenneth Dam, Executive Director of TFG Marine.
Ammonia: Who Pays for CBAM?
The introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026—with payments due starting in 2027—has caused significant disruption within the European ammonia and fertilizer sectors. Discussions among leading European regulators currently center on the potential temporary removal of fertilizers (and possibly ammonia) from the CBAM list.
In my view, the central question is: Who ultimately bears the cost of CBAM? If these costs are passed upstream, non-European suppliers will receive lower net payments. This could play out as follows: importers set the price CFR NW Europe DDP at US$680 per ton (as of January 8, 2025, according to S&P Global Energy), specifying that this price applies to ammonia with carbon intensity at or below 1.53 tons of CO2 per ton—the threshold for free emissions in 2026. If the supplier’s actual or default emissions exceed this threshold, the CBAM cost is deducted from the payment. For example, if emissions are 2.2 tons of CO2 per ton, the CBAM payment for 2026 would be US$69 per metric ton.
This arrangement incentivizes suppliers to reduce their carbon footprint, either through carbon sequestration or by blending syngas with hydrogen produced via electrolysis. However, implementing such solutions requires time and capital investment. Most external ammonia suppliers to Europe operate in regions with low gas prices and could potentially absorb lower ammonia prices.
Alternatively, CBAM costs may be passed downstream to end-users. This is already underway: major ammonia producers and distributors in Europe have notified their clients about impending CBAM surcharges for 2026. This is a more logical option, as domestic ammonia producers pay a similar carbon tax. In this scenario, European farmers and industrial users face higher costs for ammonia. While this does not directly encourage external suppliers to adopt low-carbon practices—as their earnings remain unchanged—it may prompt end-users to seek out low-carbon suppliers, making cleaner products more competitive as ammonia prices rise.
However, not all end-users may be able to withstand these increased costs, particularly those whose products (such as acrylonitrile) are not yet included in the CBAM commodity list. This could lead to carbon leakage, ongoing deindustrialization in Europe, farmer protests, and food price inflation.
A potential solution is to share CBAM costs between external suppliers and end-users, with an emphasis on encouraging suppliers to pursue lower-carbon emission options
Current state of technological upgrades in Shanxi.
– Shanxi Jinfeng Coal Chemical: Replacing 32 fixed-bed furnaces with 12 continuous oxygen-rich gasification units. The main structure will be completed in July 2025, with plans to start production in the first half of 2026. The capacity will remain unchanged (urea production of 520,000 tons/year), with daily production of around 2,400 units planned to commence production in early March.
– Jin Energy Holding Tianyuan Shanxi Chemical Plant: The gasification framework will be completed in August 2025. It employs micro-pressurized fixed-bed pure oxygen gasification technology, with a daily production capacity of around 2,500 units. The project is scheduled to be completed by the end of February.
– Shanxi Orchid Chemical Industry: Consolidation of 3 enterprises and 37 fixed-bed furnaces; planned to be completed by the first half of the year.
– Shanxi Jinxiang Chemical: Upgrade of a continuous oxygen gasification furnace, producing 1,000 tons per day.
Morning. Int'l paper activity on hold y'day after the recent moves higher, while Nola paper saw further gains on Q1 months, with Feb/Mar trading up to $417, but April paper slipped $10 from day prior. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $417//$425
Feb $423//$435
Mar $418//$427
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$426
Feb $425//$440
Mar $415//$435
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $445//$465
Mar $440//$455
Nola – (current index $401.50)
Phys: Jan traded $415. Feb $412, Mar $416, $414
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $412/$420 – traded $417
Mar $413//$420 – traded $417
Apr $398//$405 – traded $400
May $370//$390
Jun $360//$385
Brazil Amsul
Jan $177//$190
Feb $175//$190
Mar $ 180//$195
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $320//$335
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $618//$628 – traded $623
Mar $620//$630 – traded $623
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐔 𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 (𝐌𝐅𝐍) 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐝𝐮𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐡𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬? 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐁𝐀𝐌 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞… 𝐇𝐨𝐰? 𝐊𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠…
As a fertilizer analyst, talks of a “CBAM freeze” just a week into its definitive regime was surprising! And how the lack of reliable information on the CBAM charge could chill the European imports highlights the critical need for transparency and timely updates.
The European Commission is proposing the temporary suspension of the MFN tariffs on ammonia, urea and, "𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐝," on certain other fertilizers, but has not revealed when the measures may take effect.
If the MFN tariff of 6.5% were removed for phosphates from the key suppliers to the EU, this could have a bigger impact than freezing the CBAM charge.
A European Commission spokesperson said there is no confirmed start date for a proposed suspension of MFN tariffs on fertilizer imports, but that it “could enter into force quickly in 2026."
The current MFN duty — the standard non-preferential duty charged on imports from World Trade Organization members — is 6.5% for DAP.
I have looked at an (assumed) FCA Benelux price of US$790/t for DAP and the various netbacks for key exporters under different scenarios, and compared that to their latest FOB values. For the United States, I have used the FCA Florida price benchmark.
It shows that a CBAM “freeze” would have a smaller impact on DAP (around US$19/t for Saudi Arabia due to lower default CO2 intensity for the country) than the potential removal of third-country duties (around US$45/t)
Removing the third-country duty could kick-start Saudi-Europe trade, but the current high domestic prices in the United States would see little interest from Mosaic/Nutrien as long as local demand remains strong.
Netbacks for Russia and Morocco will remain unchanged as Russia is not a part of MFN since March 2022, and Morocco has enjoyed 0% duty since 2000 as part of a free trade arrangement with the EU itself – and the same applies to Jordan, Egypt, and Tunisia.
If French challenges on CBAM were to result in a removal of the MFN duty, a deeper connection between various international benchmarks could increase – adding pressure on Indian and Brazilian importers to match EU netbacks. But more to come on this!
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose on Thursday as reminders of strong domestic demand and a surge in soyoil futures overshadowed pressure from the imminent harvest of a massive Brazilian soy crop, brokers said.
CBOT March soybeans settled up 10-1/2 cents, or 1%, at $10.53 per bushel.
CBOT March soyoil ended up 1.99 cents, or 3.9%, at 52.97 cents per pound, pushing above its 50- and 100-day moving averages.
Soymeal futures sagged, with CBOT March soymeal closing down $2.70, or 0.9%, at $289.20 per short ton.
Buying in soyoil accelerated on news that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, according to sources familiar with the plans.
The administration will keep blending quotas close to its initial proposal, the sources said, while dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.
The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members crushed 224.991 million bushels of soybeans in December, slightly above an average of trade estimates and the second-highest monthly crush on record.
Brazilian government agency Conab trimmed its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 176.12 million metric tons, down 1 million tons from its December forecast but still a record high.
Agroconsult, a private firm, raised its Brazilian soy crop estimate to a record 182.2 million tons, up 4 million tons from its previous projection in November.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net export sales of U.S. 2025/26 soybeans in the week to January 8 at 2,061,900 tons, above a range of trade expectations for 800,000 to 1,800,000 tons.EXP/SOY
Separately, under its daily reporting rules, the USDA confirmed private sales of 204,000 tons of old-crop U.S. soybeans to China, another 470,000 tons to undisclosed destinations and 75,000 tons of new-crop soybeans to undisclosed destinations.
The dollar reached a six-week high on Thursday after data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, further boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for the next several months.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended January 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.
“We are at the lower end of the range,” said Lou Brien, strategist at DRW Trading, adding that market participants are likely “shifting positions a little bit and pushing the dollar higher as a result."
Brien notes, however, that the U.S. data overstates jobs growth due to flaws in how the data is calculated from the "birth-death model." Annual revisions to payrolls data are likely to reveal a much weaker labor market when they are released, though those reports come with a significant lag, he said.
Fed funds futures have pushed back expectations for the next rate cut to June due to the improving labor data and as Fed policymakers continue to express concern about still sticky inflation.
Friday’s jobs report for December showed that the unemployment rate fell more than economists had expected, to 4.4%.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday that amid ample evidence of stability in the job market the central bank should be focused on getting inflation down.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday called inflation "too hot" while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that incoming U.S. economic data looks promising despite uncertainties and continued risks to both the Fed's inflation and employment mandates.
The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.24% to 99.31, and reached 99.49, the highest since December 2.
The euro fell 0.25% to $1.1613, and got to $1.1592, also the lowest since December 2.
Risk sentiment was boosted after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he has no plans to fire Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, but it was "too early" to say what he would ultimately do.
Trump also said he had been told that killings in Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing and that he believed there was no current plan for large-scale executions, adopting a wait-and-see posture after earlier threatening intervention.
The U.S. and Taiwan, meanwhile, reached a trade deal that the U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday would drive a "massive reshoring of America’s semiconductor sector."
JAPANESE ELECTION IN FOCUS
The Japanese yen weakened on concerns that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will have more leeway to introduce more fiscally expansionist policies.
Takaichi plans to dissolve parliament next week and call a snap parliamentary election, the secretary general of her party said on Wednesday, as she seeks public backing for her spending plans.
If Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party secures a majority in the Lower House, the yen is likely to weaken further, TD Securities analysts led by Alex Loo said in a report.
"A strong public mandate may embolden Takaichi to opt for more aggressive fiscal policies in the eyes of investors. This likely serves as the catalyst for USDJPY to breach the 162 high," they said.
If the party fails to win a majority, then "the push higher in USDJPY can finally take a breather, and we could see USDJPY back below 156 as investors pare back their JPY shorts," TD added.
The Japanese yen was last down 0.02% against the greenback at 158.48 per dollar.
It held below an 18-month low of 159.45 reached on Wednesday, however, as traders watch for a possible intervention to shore up the currency.
Japanese authorities said on Wednesday they would not rule out any options to counter foreign exchange volatility.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.18% to $95,384.
-UREA MARKETS ARE IN LIMBO DUE TO THE GEOPOLITICAL FRICTION BETWEEN IRAN AND THE US – ONLY INDIA AND IMPORTS TO THE US/NOLA ARE HOLDING THE MARKET STABLE TO FIRM – OTHER REGIONS ARE ON THE SIDELINE
-MAP PRICES IN BRAZIL ARE ON THE WAY UP DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABILITY WITH CHINA ABSENT FROM THE MARKET. INDIA HAS WITHDRAWN FROM DAP IMPORTS
-POTASH PRICES ARE STABLE WITH SOME INCREASE IN BRAZIL PRICES
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE ALSO STABLE BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH IMPROVED AVAILABILITY
UREA
The international urea market appears to be on an emerging bullish run with prices edging up supported by India tenders and the US/NOLA with LATAM, SE Asia and Europe on the sideline. Geopolitical issues between Iran and the USA have led to uncertainty with President Trump’s announcement of imposing 25% additional tariffs on countries dealing with Iran. Iran’s urea export over the past years ranged from 4.85-5.78m tonnes between 2022 and 2024. Exports in 2025 are expected to be marginally lower owing to the extent of production cutbacks in Q1 and given disruption in the middle of the year. Indeed, January to October 2025 exports were just 3.33m. tonnes versus 4.84m. tonnes in the same period of 2024.
Based on Iranian customs data, the largest taker of Iranian material in 2024 was Turkey with 2.34m. tonnes, while Brazil took 1.33m. tonnes.
Iranian products regularly make its way to other markets, including those in SE Asia, with Myanmar and Thailand being the largest receivers each with between 400-500 KT annually in addition to Africa, the Indian subcontinent and elsewhere, sometimes indirectly via other markets, notably Oman. The latest Iran FOB price noted is in the low USD 400s PMT.
Anxiety over what the coming days will bring in Iran has played a role in stimulating trade in the USA with NOLA barges trading up from USD 390s Per Short Ton FOB last week to USD 415 Per Short Ton FOB this week with the highest values reflecting USD 452 PMT CFR equivalent.
Algerian granular urea has sold at USD 426-429 PMT FOB for end-January into February shipment to the USA. European buyers are on the other hand are on the sidelines busy shuffling massive amounts of snow in freezing temperatures.
Brazil is rumoured to have bought granular urea above USD 425 PMT CFR with suppliers on the other hand are looking at USD 430 PMT CFR for January into February shipments.
In other developments, Petrobras' prilled urea operations at Camacari in Bahia state will restart later this month while its nitrogen fertilizer units in Sergipe state resumed production earlier this month. Combined, these two units can produce just above 3,000 mt per day representing 12% of the national market. Together with Araucaria Nitrogen located in Parana state, Brazil will have urea capacity to capture 20% of the Brazilian market. Petrobras expects that with another new project under construction in Mato Grosso do Sul Obviously, national production will increase to cover 35% of Brazil consumption.
In SE Asia producers continue to target USD 420 PMT FOB for intra-Asia shipments. Malaysia is busy fulfilling local contracts, but vessel inquiries are sought for long haul destinations like the US west coast and Chile where Malaysia enjoys zero tariffs. The Indonesian government this week issued an export license for 1.4 million MT for 2026 and already is tendering for 40,000 MT of granular urea.
China is still more or less absent from the international market with daily production hovering around 200,000 MT per day. The latest granular urea sale was to South Korea at around USD 410 PMT FOB. There is no news regarding any potential future issuance of fresh export quotas. Rumours are floating that China may announce export quotas post the conclusion of the Chinese New Year at the end of February.
Urea imports to the Philippines were recorded at 730,666 MT in 2025 with granular urea at 387,626 and prilled urea at 343,039 MT. Overall total imports of fertilizers to the Philippines were 2,147,016 MT.
The outlook for urea prices is bullish which normally happens in the 1st Quarter of almost every year.
PHOSPHATES
A range of MAP price benchmarks across the globe increased this week, while DAP was broadly more stable amid limited activity. TSP benchmarks were also mostly higher. An exceptionally tight supply outlook and high raw materials prices continue to support the phosphate bulls, while poor affordability remains a concern in the bears' corner.
Brazil's MAP market has entered a period of firm activity because of concerns that Chinese supply will be absent until at least August. Russian producer Purefert reportedly sold a further 10,000t MAP for February loading to Brazil at $680pt cfr on 14 January before pulling back from the market.
The fresh deal follows the sale of 20,000t MAP for February loading by Purefert to Brazil late last week at prices ranging from $660-680pt cfr. Other market participants have also since reported prices in Brazil at similar levels.
Purefert had been holding its offer level for MAP to Brazil at $680pt cfr for limited available products before pulling back. The supplier noted that it had rejected bids at $670pt cfr.
The fresh sales mark a surge in MAP import prices in Brazil from last week’s assessment of $630-645pt cfr. Some deals had been rumoured but not confirmed in the $650spt cfr while offers were indicated at $660-680pt cfr last week.
MAP CFR prices have firmed to USD 640–645/t, with offers reported as high as $650/t cfr and above, although fresh buying remains limited.
Brazil will be the main driver of MAP pricing in the global market in the near term, driven more by supplier dynamics than seasonal demand, as buyers worry about securing supply if there is a delayed Chinese return to the export market. But with Chinese exports halted, other origins such as Morocco and Russia will step in. But the market remains susceptible to volatility, depending on Brazilian purchasing patterns and the pace of soybean harvesting.
India has backed out of the DAP market once again and is only seemingly interested in locking in products at incrementally lower prices. But this is not unexpected as the market is in its off season. DAP stocks are nearly double what they were this time last year and TSP inventories are also significant, easing the supply pressure.
India will not step into the market with much gusto until there is more clarity on the 2026-27 nutrient-based subsidy. Even then, long-term supply contracts with Saudi Arabia provide a constant delivery buffer, which will mitigate some panic, if any does in fact appear regarding potentially prolonged Chinese export restrictions.
OCP exported 11.37Mt phosphate fertilisers in the first eleven months of 2025, a 2.8% rise yr-on-yr from 11.06Mt, according to latest Office Des Changes data.
November export volumes declined 5.6% yr-on-yr to 918,813t from 972,854t. This followed a 23% slump in October exports to just 837,198t. Average Moroccan fertiliser exports in Q3 had been 1.15Mt with June exports at 1.2-1.3Mt.
Though yet to be confirmed, the Jan-Nov exports are understood to include a rise in TSP exports to roughly 3.4Mt from 2.3Mt, flat DAP/MAP exports at 6.8Mt, an increase in NPK exports to roughly 800,000t from 712,733t, and a slump in NP/NPS exports to around 425,000t from 1.1Mt.
January through December 2024 exports reached a record 12.37Mt, up 13% yr-on-yr from 10.95Mt in the same period 2023 and 30% higher than 9.52Mt in 2022. These volumes were 1Mt above the 11.3Mt OCP exported in 2020, the previous record.
Morocco’s January-November ammonia imports reached 1.61Mt, down 6.2% yr-on-yr, while sulphur imports in the first eleven months of 2025 reached 6.49Mt, down 14% yr-on-yr. Fertiliser imports (mainly MOP for NPK production) in Jan-November rose 1.8% yr-on-yr to 897,705t with November imports up 19% to 142,780t.
The ammonia and sulphur drops come despite the ongoing rise in downstream production as new capacity comes online. The drop can be partly attributed to higher TSP production.
In line with the gains in fertilisers and phosacid exports, raw-material imports for OCP surged in 2024. Morocco’s ammonia imports in the January to December period reached 1.85Mt, up 17% yr-on-yr. Sulphur imports in the same period surged 27% to 8.29Mt. Fertiliser imports between January and December 2024 reached 919,376t, up 12% yr-on-yr.
Prices are likely to be relatively stable for January-February given slow spot demand, with steep increases then expected from mid-to-late Q1 into Q3 due to exceptionally tight global supply.
POTASH
The global MOP market is increasingly characterised by regional divergence, with supply rigidity becoming more evident even as demand growth remains uneven. Brazilian prices remained stable this week, but have moved higher in the last month, supported by inventories, which are at their lowest levels since 2019 and persistently thin spot availability. Most first-quarter volumes are already committed in the south American country, leaving limited options for buyers to choose from, while suppliers continue to push offer prices higher.
Prices in Southeast Asia may not be rising yet, but the market is gradually becoming tighter and forward-looking as buyers continue to buy more MOP and build up inventories. Standard MOP prices remain assessed across a broad range, while granular material continues to command a premium, reflecting limited availability. Import volumes into the region have increased, indicating forward purchasing and inventory building. The Indonesian Pupuk tender remains an important metric, as the market continues to assess demand-supply fundamentals.
Potash spot prices outside Southeast Asia are forecast to rise in the coming quarter due to low stocks in Brazil, which will incentivise imports as new capacity comes online by the end of the year.
AMMONIA
A combination of seasonally soft demand in key import countries and uncertainty about the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) saw the pause button pressed on market activity. With European officials tight-lipped about the possible suspension of CBAM – which began its definitive phase a fortnight ago – and/or the lifting of tariffs of up to 5.5%, many participants simply sat on the sidelines.
Ammonia prices on both sides of the Suez were largely steady this week, with only a marginal uptick seen in the Far East and the US southern plains. Prices are expected to soften through January as new supply trickles in the market. In the US, attention is on Woodside’s Beaumont facility as additional volumes become available, while in the Middle East, the return of Sabic and Ma’aden’s MPC is set to ease tight supply conditions and allow prices to correct lower
UREA
Brazil: A large importer has bought a cargo of 20,000t of Russian granular urea at $427/t CFR for January shipment to Paranagua
Zambia’s Path to Fertilizer Self-Sufficiency
How Zambia’s Emergency Food Production Facility is contributing to the reduction of food and fertilizer import dependence
13-Jan-2026
A worker offloads fertilizer for delivery to farmers
A worker offloads fertilizer for delivery to farmers
The Crisis That Changed Everything
When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022, shockwaves rippled across the world. In Africa's fields, where farmers watched fertilizer prices triple, supplies dwindled, and their livelihoods hung in the balance.
At the time, Zambia imported over $110 million worth of fertilizer annually from Russia and Ukraine alone. With global supply chains fractured and prices soaring, the nation faced a stark reality: it needed to import 632,529 metric tonnes of fertilizer during planting seasons in 2022, while the fertilizer sector was unable to meet domestic demand.
For decades, Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia (NCZ), a historically dominant, state-owned domestic producer, limped along with outdated equipment and a meager capacity of just 70,000 metric tonnes per year—barely a fraction of national needs. The gap between production and demand seemed insurmountable.
In stepped the African Development Fund, which saw this as an opportunity rather than a challenge.
In July 2022, the African Development Bank Group's Board of Directors approved the Zambia Emergency Food Production Facility (ZEFPF) with $14.73 million in financing—a strategic intervention designed to provide immediate relief and fundamentally transform Zambia's agricultural ecosystem.
The centerpiece of this transformation was a seemingly modest $1.25 million grant to Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia for raw materials to jumpstart production at its newly constructed $5.5 million plant. This wasn't just about buying input; it was about breathing life into a vision.
"The support from the African Development Fund has come just at the right time," explained Chanda M. Mongo, CEO of Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia. "This backing has made possible the commissioning of our new state-of-the-art blending and granulating plant. This is a transformational investment for our nation."
The Six-Fold Leap
The numbers tell a story of dramatic transformation:
Before the stimulus package, NCZ had a capacity of 70,000 MT. By 2025, with the new plant operational, capacity reached 432,880 MT—a six-fold increase. Coupled with two other recently commissioned private sector fertilizer plants, Zambia expects to achieve fertilizer self-sufficiency by 2026, with prices dropping by 40%.
This wasn't just an incremental improvement—it was a complete reimagining of Zambia's fertilizer landscape.
Beyond production: an ecosystem approach
Some of the 300 motorbikes procured for extension officers
Some of the 300 motorbikes procured for extension officers
The ADF vision extended beyond factory walls, creating an integrated ecosystem. State-of-the-art soil-testing equipment was provided to Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI), and 300 extension officers received motorbikes and tablets to provide better extension services on climate smart agriculture and good agriculture practices.
The project trained 300 extension staff through the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture to expand precision farming.
An extension worker supporting Zambian farmers with precision soil farming
An extension worker supporting Zambian farmers with precision soil farming
"The training of our extension officers and up-to-date equipment is helping reduce turnaround time to produce results," says Brian Gondwe, Head of ZARI's soil chemistry laboratory. "We now know what deficiencies these soils have."
The project launched a pilot Sustainable Agriculture Finance Facility with $5.6 million, which the Zambian government later scaled to $30 million. Over 18,000 smallholder farmers accessed loans.
Overall, 1,700 agro-dealers have been engaged, creating over 5,000 jobs.
Grace's Story: One Farmer's Revolution
Smallholder farmer Grace Phiri tending to her crops at her farm in Zambia
Smallholder farmer Grace Phiri tending to her crops at her farm in Zambia
Grace Nyirongo Phiri, a small-scale farmer, experienced first-hand transormation With ADF-backed financing, she installed drip irrigation, a borehole, and solar pumps, increasing yields by 35%.
"You minimize the usage of water, and then you have uniformity of irrigation in the field, so your crop comes out well," she says.
Grace represents more than 25,000 beneficiaries whose lives have been transformed. “We, small-scale farmers, are being elevated slowly,” she said, smiling.
From importer to exporter: Zambia’s agriculture story
The transformation cascaded through Zambia's economy.
Maize production has increased to 3.7 million metric tonnes. With national consumption put at 2.5 million MT, the country is witnessing a surplus of 1.2 million MT, positioning Zambia as a regional food exporter.
A Model for Africa
CEO Mongo captures the magnitude: "Our past capacity for production of fertilizer stood at 70,000 metric tonnes per year. Today, with this modern facility, our capacity has leaped to an impressive 432,880 metric tonnes per year. This is more than just a number. This is greater reach, greater impact, and greater hope for our farmers."
Brian Gondwe, Principal Agriculture Research Officer, presents soil analysis equipment provided by the ADF-funded Zambia Emergency Food Production Facility, enabling farmers to adopt precision agricultural practices.
A scientist at ZARI with soil-testing equipment procured by the ADF
Through advanced soil testing and customized blends, farmers receive fertilizer matched precisely to their fields and crops, resulting in higher yields, healthier crops, and more substantial incomes.
Zambia stands as a testament to strategic development financing—transforming from a fertilizer importer to a self-sufficient producer and regional exporter. The African Development Bank's investment in building capacity, empowering farmers, and demonstrating that Africa can chart its own path to food security.
"The Africa Development Fund intervention has been life-changing for Zambia." — Chanda M. Mongo, CEO, Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia.