In China : Market analysis for today.
Strong sentiment is driving the market, while the fundamental situation remains unchanged. Today, company prices have remained stable with slight fluctuations. The winter and late-season fertilizer market is expected to begin in the latter half of the month. If sentiment remains strong and the volume of winter and late-season fertilizers continues to increase, there may be a brief period of moderate price increases. Otherwise, prices will continue to fluctuate slightly, with limited upward or downward potential for the time being.
Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara is not expecting a suspension of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for fertilizer products, despite recent confusion.
The Commission is set to issue further guidance around provisions that could allow for the temporary suspension of the CBAM with retroactive application from 1 January 2026, according to a statement issued on 7 January, which created some confusion as to whether the carbon levy will remain in place.
"To remove [CBAM] 7 days after implementing it… would undermine what it was meant to do" Yara said during the firm's Capital Markets Day presentation.
Article 27a, included within proposals issued last month, stipulates a temporary suspension could be issued if CBAM causes "severe harm to the Union internal market due to serious and unforeseen circumstances related to the impact on the prices of goods".
But the impact to prices of carbon intensive goods has always been expected, Yara pointed out.
"It's been crystal clear that the carbon cost will be reflected in the cost of the product. The additional carbon cost is based on the commission's own methodology and default values, so this cannot be a surprise or an emergency, this is exactly what it was supposed to do", Yara chief executive Svein Tore Holsether said. A suspension on the grounds of increased cost would therefore be surprising, he indicated.
CBAM has also been designed to coincide with the phasing out of free allowances for domestic industry emitters under the EU's emission trading system (ETS). "Suspending CBAM, while continuing the reduction of EU ETS allowances, will reduce the competitiveness of EU producers," Holsether said. "The intention of CBAM was to… mirror the cost that the European industry has been subject to for a number of years", he added.
Yara has built a ‘quota bank' of 6mn EU ETS quotas through its emission efficiency investments which it can use against its own emissions or sell back into the market, equating to a value of around $500mn, according to the firm. Yara also plans to limit its CBAM exposure through investments or supply agreements with low-carbon ammonia production assets outside of Europe, such as the firms proposed partnership with Air Products
But a suspension of CBAM would mean "we likely wouldn't have the return required on a US blue [low-carbon] project", Holsether said. Any weakening of CBAM instead "risks opening the door to carbon-intensive imports, eroding Europe's industrial base, and jeopardising food security".
CBAM revenues should instead be used to create incentives to help farmers while making emitters pay, Holsether said.
The Commission's 7 January statement also proposed a removal of duties on imports of ammonia and urea to help offset some of the additional costs associated with CBAM, and included details on a €48bn package of measures to aid farmers. But critics say the measures are not sufficient to support Europe's agri-food industry with additional costs, particularly while fertilizer prices are already 60pc higher than in 2020.
The EU's CBAM took full effect on 1 January, imposing a carbon levy for certain goods imported into the EU. Ammonia and all fertilizers containing nitrogen from countries that are not already subject to the EU emissions trading system (ETS) or a system fully linked to the EU ETS are within scope.
think quite a few of them mentioned in your list already.. but just incase!
50-66,999 MT – Sulphur – NOPAC / SE ASIA – 25 Jan 26
52-62,000 MT – Urea – Vietnam / EC INDIA – 25 – 30 Jan 26
52-62,000 MT – Urea – Vietnam / EC INDIA – 20 – 25 Jan 26
52-62,000 MT – Urea – SE ASIA / EC INDIA – 17 – 20 Jan 26
22-32,000 MT – Ferts (bags) – SE ASIA / SE ASIA – 22 – 24 Jan 26
8,000 MT / 10% – blk ferts – Kaohsiung / Cai Mep – 08 – 15 Jan 26
32-42,000 MT – Urea – Muara / EC INDIA – 17 – 20 Jan 26
35,000 MT – Urea – Bandar Assaluyeh / Iskenderun – 20 – 24 Jan 26
30,000 MT – Phosphate Rock – Abu Ghosoun / Iraq – Prompt
10,000 MT – Sulphur – Umm Qasr / Vancouver (Can) – 08 – 10 Jan 26
50-59,999 MT – MAP – AG / ECI – 10 – 15 Jan 26
32-40,000 MT – blk ferts – Safi / Brazil – 13 Jan 26
40-66,999 MT – Phosphates – Egypt / Spore – Jap – 01 – 05 Feb 26
60-66,999 MT – Ferts (bags) – Annaba / India – Prompt
50,000 MT / 5% – Sulphur – Batumi / Zhenjiang – 25 – 30 Jan 26
30,000 MT / 10% – Superphosph. – Damietta / Brazil – 07 – 12 Jan 26
30,000 MT – Phosphate Rock – Tartous / Diliskelesi – 10 – 15 Jan 26
6,000 MT / 10% – Urea – Arzew / Southampton – 05 – 10 Jan 26
24-32,000 MT – Urea – AG / Korea South – Prompt
35,000 MT / 10% – Phosphate Rock – Saldanha Bay / Yeosu – 16 – 31 Jan 26
GMT shipbrokers = Samsung
LONDON (ICIS)–In India, National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) has issued awards for a total of 971,750 tonnes of urea,
including 695,600 tonnes for the west coast and 276,150 tonnes for the east coast.
In China: Market analysis for today.
The short-term urea market’s trading activity has been relatively low, with downstream buyers mostly cautious and purchasing only as needed. However, due to the manufacturers’ lack of pressure in terms of short-term shipments, prices have remained relatively stable for now. It is expected that by early next week, based on the current fundamentals and price levels, there is a higher likelihood of price fluctuations. However, if sentiment remains strong, there may be limited room for short-term fluctuations. Furthermore, given that the price adjustment is limited, downstream buyers will likely continue to prioritize cautious and demand-driven purchasing.
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Any suspension of the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) would jeopardise Yara’s and Air Products’ proposed $8-9 billion low-carbon ammonia project in Louisiana, the CEO of the Norwegian fertilizer major warned today.
Addressing an audience in Oslo, Svein Tore Holsether confirmed while the group would “not take any large investment decisions based solely on CBAM”, uncertainty over the new carbon emissions tax’s future had thrown a spanner in the works of the business case for the huge project.
With a final investment decision (FID) on the 2.8m tonne/year facility at Darrow due in a few months, the senior executive expressed disappointment at the European Commission’s 7 January announcement that officials are to closely monitor its impact on fertilizer prices and demand.
During the press conference in Brussels this week that came after pressure from some governments and industry groups about the impact of CBAM on fertilizer prices, officials said the mechanism could be suspended and applied retroactively to the start of the year.
“It’s been crystal clear that carbon cost would be reflected in the cost of the product,” Holsether said during Yara’s Capital Markets Day, adding Wednesday’s development had caused both “uncertainty and confusion” for market players.
“The additional carbon cost is based on the [European] Commission’s own methodology and default values, so this can’t be a surprise nor an emergency. It’s doing exactly what it was supposed to do,” he said.
“Suspending CBAM while continuing to reduce the EU ETS allowances [climate credits] will reduce the competitiveness of EU producers.
“The intention of CBAM was to put a carbon cost on imports into Europe to mirror the cost that European industry has been subject to for number of years.
“While we are considering investments in US low-carbon ammonia projects, we will take our time to closely monitor the developments before taking FID. For Yara, there is no green transition with red numbers.
“However, if CBAM was to be fully suspended, we’d not be in a position to invest in such projects.”
Yara currently handles around 4m. tonnes/year of merchant ammonia for its own use and consumption by its customers.
The firm recently invested $8 million in quay works at Porsgrunn, Norway, that has allowed the discharge of larger ammonia volumes and generated nearly double that expenditure in logistics savings.
“Our Porsgrunn terminal could only receive handysizes, but performing investment means it can now receive larger vessels,” said Johan Labby, Yara’s EVP of Global Production. “Similar steps are going to be taken at our other European terminals to improve flexibility.”
During today’s event, senior executives at the Scandinavian major expressed the view that ammonia capacity additions in 2026, such as the imminent launch of 2.4m. tonnes/year of new capacity in the US Gulf and a 1.2m. tonne/year plant in Qatar later this year, are likely to trigger a period of lower prices.
They also highlighted how more than three quarters of its European finished nitrogen products are flexible on their ammonia source, meaning traditional grey, low-carbon blue and zero-carbon green feedstocks can all be consumed.
Just over a month ago, Air Products and Yara unveiled plans to connect the industry major’s low-emission ammonia projects in the US and Saudi Arabia with the fertilizer group’s global ammonia network.
Air Products would own and operate the industrial gases production, where about 80% of the low-carbon hydrogen would be supplied to Yara under a 25-year long-term offtake agreement to produce 2.8m. tonnes/year of low-carbon ammonia.
In the Red Sea, the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia is more than 90% complete and expected to start commercial production in 2027.
Air Products is the sole offtaker of up to 1.2m. tonnes/year of renewable ammonia, with the US group eyeing a marketing and distribution agreement where Yara would commercialise, on a commission basis, the ammonia not sold by Air Products as renewable hydrogen in Europe.
The marketing and distribution agreement is targeted to be completed by July 2026, the duo said early last month.
To justify a $249/month subscription as a solo founder, your site map needs to balance active intelligence (the stuff that changes hourly) with static tools (the calculators).
Here is a professional site map designed for a high-value "Command Center" feel.
Level 1: The Global Navigation (Sidebar or Top)
1. Home: The "Market Pulse" Dashboard
This is the default view. It should look like a "NASA Mission Control" for fertilizer.
Top Strip: Real-time commodity tickers (Natural Gas, Urea, DAP, Corn, Wheat).
The "Wire" Widget: A scrolling feed of the latest 5 WhatsApp rumors/intel alerts.
The "Floor Price" Snapshot: A quick-glance result from your calculator (e.g., "EU Ammonia Production Floor: $XXX").
Weekly Drill Video: A small video player featuring your latest 2-minute market outlook.
2. Live Intel (The "Wire")
Focus: Speed and inside information.
The Rumor Mill: A vertical, searchable list of all WhatsApp-sourced intel.
Sentiment Gauge: An LLM-generated meter (Bullish/Bearish) based on the last 24 hours of market chatter.
Alert Settings: A page where users can manage how they receive your WhatsApp/Email notifications.
3. Analysis Tools (The "Decision Engine")
Focus: Proprietary math and cost logic.
Cost of Production Calculator: Inputs: Raw Material costs, Energy, Labor, Transport.
Outputs: Breakeven point vs. Spot Market price.
Freight Opportunity Matrix:
A table comparing shipping routes (e.g., Baltic to Brazil vs. Arab Gulf to Brazil).
Highlighting "Arb Opportunities" (where the price difference between regions exceeds the shipping cost).
Currency Impact Tool: A simple view of how local currencies (Real, Rupee, Euro) are affecting buying power.
4. The Repository (The "Vault")
Focus: Long-form content and historical data.
Weekly Presentations: An archive of your slide decks and PDFs.
Webinar Library: Video recordings categorized by "Product Type" or "Region."
The AI Librarian: A dedicated chat box where users can ask: "What was the consensus on Q3 potash demand from the November webinar?"
5. Member Area (The "Account")
Focus: Retention and support.
Subscription Management: Stripe/Billing portal.
Referral/Intel Rewards: A section where they can submit their own "Market Rumors" to earn subscription credits.
Support: Direct link to your WhatsApp for VIP assistance.
Technical Implementation Note
Since you are a one-man shop, I recommend using a "No-Code" or "Low-Code" stack to build this:
Frontend: Webflow or Bubble (for that high-end "SaaS" look).
Backend Logic: Make.com (to connect your WhatsApp messages → LLM → Website Dashboard).
* Payments: Stripe (standard for monthly $249 recurring).
Recommended Next Step
Would you like me to draft the "Cost of Production" Logic? Specifically, the ratios of raw inputs (like MMBtu of Natural Gas) required to produce 1 ton of Ammonia or Urea, so you can build the calculator?
To justify a $249/month price point, the user experience needs to feel like a "Command Center," not just a collection of links.
You should definitely keep it all on one website/domain, but use a "Hybrid Dashboard" layout. If you put everything on a single scrolling page, it looks cluttered; if you hide everything in deep tabs, the user forgets what they are paying for.
Here is the most effective way to structure it:
The "Command Center" Layout
1. The Main "HUD" (Heads-Up Display)
When the user logs in, they should see a single summary screen that pulls the "hottest" data from every section. This gives them an instant snapshot of the market in 30 seconds.
The "Ticker" (Top): Live Natural Gas prices and a few key crop prices (Corn/Wheat).
The "Intel Feed" (Center Left): The 3 most recent WhatsApp rumors/intelligence alerts.
The "Quick Calc" (Center Right): A mini-version of your Cost of Production calculator (e.g., "Current Urea Floor: $342").
The "Weekly Drill" (Side Bar): A thumbnail of your latest video/presentation.
2. The Functional Tabs (The Deep Dives)
Beyond the main dashboard, use 4 distinct tabs in a top or side navigation bar for the "heavy lifting."
Tab 1: Live Intelligence (The "Wire")
What’s here: A searchable archive of all WhatsApp market rumors and intelligence alerts.
Pro Tip: Add a toggle to filter by product (e.g., "Only show me Ammonia rumors").
Tab 2: Margin & Cost Tools
What’s here: The full-scale Cost of Production Calculator.
Interactive element: Sliders where they can adjust gas prices or freight rates to see how it affects the total "Delivered Cost" (CFR).
Tab 3: Opportunity Map (Freight & Logistics)
What’s here: Your freight analytics. Since you aren't doing AIS, focus on a Table of Freight Spreads.
Example: A table showing: Origin (Egypt) → Destination (Brazil) → Estimated Freight Cost.
Tab 4: The Vault (Education)
What’s here: The repository of previous webinars and your weekly presentations.
The LLM Feature: Place a search bar here that says: "Ask our AI anything from our past webinars." This makes a "dead" archive feel alive.
Why this structure works for a Solo Founder
Perceived Value: When a user clicks through 4 tabs and sees data in each, the platform feels "big," which justifies the $249 price.
Scalability: You can update the "Intel Feed" via your phone (WhatsApp), and the website updates automatically. You only have to "work" on the website once a week for the presentation.
* Focus: It keeps your "Killer Feature" (The WhatsApp Intel) front and center.
Quick Design Tip: "The Dark Mode Aesthetic"
In the world of trading (think Bloomberg or Reuters), Dark Mode (dark grey/black backgrounds with neon greens/reds for numbers) signals "High-Value Professional Data." Using a dark theme for your dashboard will immediately make it look more expensive than a standard white "blog-style" site.
Would you like me to create a "Site Map" or a list of the specific input fields you'll need for the Cost of Production calculator?
Urea paper:
Feb AG traded @ $422, seller firm $427 on the follow
Mar AG $405/$425 firm
Feb Brazil $416 bid firm
Indorama Expands in China's Fertilizer Market!
Singapore-based Indorama Corporation is strengthening its global fertilizer footprint with a key acquisition in China.
On December 25, 2025, Indorama Investment (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary, signed agreements to acquire 100% of Anyang Zhongying Fertilizer Co., Ltd. and Anyang Yingde Gases Co., Ltd. (Anyang Nitrogen Fertilizer) from PAG.
Located in Henan Province, Anyang produces urea, ammonia, and industrial gases, supporting agriculture and industry in China's vital farming region.
Amit Lohia, Vice Chairman of Indorama Corporation, commented: "This acquisition marks a milestone, enhancing our presence in the world's largest fertilizer market and advancing food security with sustainable solutions."
What impact will this have on sustainable farming?
-UREA PRICES ARE INCREASING DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABILITY IN IRAN, VENEZUELA, CHINA
-ACTIVITY IN THE PROCESSED PHOSPHATE MARKET MUTED WITH ONLY MAP PRICES IN BRAZIL SET TO INCREASE – HOWEVER STEEP INCREASES ARE EXPECTED END OF Q1 AND FORWARD DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABILITY AND STRONG DEMAND
-POTASH PRICES ARE MOVING UP IN BRAZIL AND SE ASIA
-AMMONIA PRICES MAY SOFTEN DUE TO INCREASED AVAILABILITY
UREA
The 2026 urea market got off to a fast start with the closing of the NFL India tender on January 2nd seeking 1.5 million MT. As of January 8th, NFL has received commitments for 980,000 MT with the lion share coming from the Middle East. In response to the India tender as well as the Venezuela situation, and the European Union considering postponing the introduction of CBAM with claims of fertilizer prices going up 25%, urea prices have increased across the board. Netbacks to the Middle East is now higher than what India can provide which is set at around USD 410 PMT FOB vs latest sale by Qatar at around USD 415-415 PMT FOB. Consequently, NFL may struggle to get to 1 million MT with producers and traders evaluating other options. MOPCO of Egypt has sold smaller lots as high as USD 455 PMT FOB which is up USD 5 PMT from late December sale.
Indonesia has yet to announce export license for 2026 with rumours of a urea sale to Indonesia from another SE Asia origin. YTD exports of urea from Indonesia logged in at 1.52 million MT which is up 11.3% from 2024. In a surprise move, India received 716,000 MT vs 23,000 MT in 2024. Australia imports from Indonesia dropped 56% in 2025 at 255,000 MT and the Philippines dropped 53% at 148,000 MT.
BFI of Brunei is reported in the trade having sold 30,000 MT at above USD 410 PMT FOB for 30,000 MT whilst smaller parcels priced at USD 400 PMT. Weather in Brunei has created a backlog of vessels due to heavy rain.
Iranian producers are struggling with lack of gas due to harsh winter conditions with only Pardis operating. Chinese daily production is now above 200,000 MT yet the outlook for increased export is grim.
Brazil is also sluggish – same can be said of US/NOLA.
Below is an outlook view for 2026 as published by Agribusiness Global:
1. Agroindustry stagflation continues into 2026
We made this prediction for 2025, and now with some dismay we expect stagflation to continue into 2026. Globally the commodity market continues to be beset by overproduction: high grain inventory, oversupply of tree crops and vegetables, and lack of premiums for organic production.
Flat global demand in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific nations is being driven by aging, shrinking populations, and in the U.S. particularly food consumption likely will be impacted by increasing use of obesity drugs and the Trump administrations Make America Healthy Again program.
2. Input prices likely will be flat to increasing as suppliers compete for farm purchases
We're in an era of international tumult. We see global tariffs and the resulting retaliation against tariffs causing short-term volatility in input prices, then settling down to some measure of adaptation in the medium term. Blunting these effects somewhat will be government subsidies, which in the U.S. could be in the neighbourhood of $40 billion to $60 billion.
3. China's economy continues to be challenged
China's enormous pesticide manufacturing capacity continues to drive margin erosion globally. While this is positive for end users of crop inputs, profitability for the supply channel remains challenging. Lower margins make the distribution channel's reinvestment in technology and services that much more difficult, and certain markets will need further restructuring or reengineering.
4. Energy outlook remains positive, except in areas where political taxes play a role
Global agriculture runs on energy. Continued supply-side policies in the U.S. and the Middle East are keeping energy prices stable and attractive, and helping to maintain a lower but stable value of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, China as a major consumer of energy has hedged its bet on the future by investing in all energy types from fossil to alternative while also upping their inventory of strategic oil. For its part, Western Europe will continue to need to adapt, possibly by ramping up its nuclear capacity.
5. South America is a two-sided coin in 2026
A key question, as always in this region, is Brazil. Will it recover from high interest rates and inflation that have caused major defaults in agribusiness sector, which accounts for about 25%-30% of its overall GDP? What will struggling input suppliers there do, as many are retreating. For instance, Nutrien divested some of its fertilizer blending plants in Brazil to focus on its core retail and tech businesses. Argentina on the other hand may experience an agricultural renaissance with U.S. financial support and under the political and economic leadership of President Javier Milei.
6. The cost of money is a positive tailwind
As the U.S. economy goes, so goes the cost of money globally. Lower interest rates in the U.S. should drive a lower-but-stable value of the dollar, giving agribusiness predictability in regard to capital investments, inventory levels, and trading of commodities.
7. Technology: The future bodes well for integrated technology packages for farmers
There are admittedly some headwinds here. Cybercrime continues to be a threat, leading to disruptive risks and costs overall to agribusiness. A major cyberattack could cripple key areas including trading platforms, logistics networks, and agro-processing. At the same time, solutions for soil health continue to be needed to adapt farmland to new climate change, the high nutritional needs of improved germplasms, and sustainable long-term equity value for multi-generational farm families.
8. Where to Invest: Full-service, full-gamut solutions
Biorationals seem to be the key growth segment, yet government regulation lags in process and direction. While biorational technology is improving, startup and small companies dating to circa 2000 continue to compete with one another, causing confusion and scepticism at the farmgate. Mature agribusiness channels also struggle with overhead and margins and are being disrupted by smart business models. To this sector's favor is improving germplasm as biological breeding continues to become less capital-intensive.
9. Realignment of supply chains
If tariffs or regulations shift and suddenly are imposed short-term or mid-season, producers will not be able to adjust their planting and/or harvesting decisions and capital investments, which will magnify their losses. Agribusinesses will see losses in export market shifts and potentially higher costs, i.e., in crop inputs. Consequently, producers will become more dependent on government support.
Geopolitics appear to be dominating the fertilizer market in 2026.
The Venezuela situation could have limited impact on the global market with a monthly export capacity of only 50,000 MT which mainly goes to Brazil. Iranian exports are unpredictable for various reasons with the local currency having dropped 40% to the USD. Freezing temperatures are halting exports. Russian producers are being the target of Ukraine drones. Europe remains the big issue with the government of France urging the EU to postpone CBAM since it is claimed that fertilizer prices paid by farmers will increase by 25%.
In summary, on the one hand farmers are getting paid less for their agricultural output, and urea prices are going up due to limited export availability. The outlook is that the downside risk for decreased urea prices is less than the upside risk which are slowly building. Prices should remain flat-to-firm in the near term, with L1 offers into India providing a positive boost for the market.
PHOSPHATES
Some MAP price indications for Brazil have jumped to $650-655pt CFR from the latest assessment of $630-635pt CFR on 24 December but sales have yet to be confirmed at the higher levels.
MAP offers to Brazil were reported as high as $660-680pt CFR on 7 January from traders and producers.
Paper bids for Q2 deliveries in Brazil are also reported by market sources up to $670pt CFR in another sign of the market firming.
Attempts to achieve higher MAP prices in Brazil are most likely due to declining inventories and a general lack of phosphate fertiliser availability for the market, including for TSP and SSP.
Brazil’s January-December MAP imports dropped 25% yr-on-yr to 3.14Mt from 4.21Mt with the volume also significantly below the record high of 5.20Mt from 2023.
Russia remained the largest MAP supplier to Brazil in 2025 with the traded volume down 35% yr-on-yr at 1.44Mt. MAP imports from Saudi Arabia increased 12% yr-on-yr in 2025 to 777,876t while those from Morocco fell 31% to 708,307t. The volume from China declined 37% to 105,237t.
Combined phosphate fertiliser imports in the full calendar year of 2025 reached 13.21Mt, up 4.0% from 12.70Mt in 2024. The 2025 volume was around 7% below the record annual high of 14.22Mt from 2021. MAP/DAP imports in 2025 dropped while TSP, SSP, and NP imports surged.
China overtook Russia as the largest phosphate fertiliser supplier to Brazil in 2025. China’s market share for DAP/MAP/TSP/SSP/NP/NPK imports by Brazil was 24% in 2025, up from 15% in 2024. Russia’s market share declined to 18% in 2025 from 26% the prior year.
Phosphate fertiliser imports from Morocco constituted 16% of total Brazilian imports in 2025 against 19% in 2024. Egypt’s market share was largely unchanged at around 13%.
Ma’aden has sold 60,000t DAP for January loading to India at $668-669pt CFR, marking a further slight price decline from the latest deal to the market.
This marks the first DAP cargo to India since mid-December, when Mosaic reported the sale of 40,000t for H2 December loading from the US to a single Indian buyer in the $670spt CFR. Most market participants had put the price of the deal around $670pt CFR.
Mosaic is understood to be looking into another DAP cargo to India for January loading, but no fresh deal is yet confirmed from the producer.
Indian buyers have largely been on the sidelines over recent weeks pending further clarity on whether the ‘disadvantage support’ will continue to be provided on top of the official DAP subsidy.
Prices are likely to be relatively stable for January-February given slow spot demand, with steep increases then expected from mid-to-late Q1 into Q3 due to exceptionally tight global supply.
POTASH
Potash prices in Brazil were assessed slightly higher at $360–370/t CFR this week, compared with the previous price assessment of $355–370/t CFR on 25 December, reflecting tightening supply conditions rather than a surge in spot demand. Inventories in Brazil are reported to be at their lowest levels since 2019, with several suppliers sold out for January and others pushing offers higher despite limited transaction volumes. Deals concluded before the New Year at around $370/t CFR underscore the market’s firm undertone. Although year-to-date imports have softened slightly, Brazil’s strong crop outlook and record consumption in 2025 continue to underpin demand expectations for 2026. In Southeast Asia, market sentiment has firmed following the launch of a new Pupuk Indonesia tender for 145,000 t of standard MOP, with suppliers expected to submit offers above $400/t CFR. While imports into Indonesia declined sharply in November, year-to-date volumes remain significantly higher, supported by Russia and Canada. Elsewhere in the region, buying activity has slowed amid political uncertainty in Thailand and weak Malaysian imports, although strong palm oil prices have continued to support underlying nutrient affordability. Following the New Year holiday, China MOP market sentiment and prices stayed flat as supply and demand remained broadly balanced, while downstream buyers continued a hand-to-mouth purchasing approach for winter reserve and national commercial reserves.
Potash spot prices outside Southeast Asia are forecast to rise in the coming quarter due to low stocks in Brazil, which will incentivise imports as new capacity comes online by the end of the year.
AMMONIA
Ammonia values in the Middle East, Far East and Southeast Asia edged higher again this week, while other major benchmarks were largely unchanged amid a subdued market. Market conditions at the start of the year remain broadly consistent with those seen at the close of 2025, with prices continuing to find support from persistent supply tightness, underpinned by the continued absence of Ma’aden’s MPC facility, which is estimated to remove 300,000-400,000 t from the market. Expectations remain that the unit will return in mid-to-late January.
Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as new supply from GCA and Woodside’s Beaumont comes online and expectations that Ma’aden and Sabic will return in mid-to-late January.
Here is the translation of the international urea market report:
International Urea Market Report
Date: Thursday, January 8, 2026
In 2025, the international urea price index rose significantly, with annual prices increasing by 18-29% compared to 2024. The market is currently supported by the southern hemisphere entering its peak fertilizer season. The results of the Indian tender are expected to dictate the future direction of market trends.
Regional Market Updates
China
Export Quotas: A new export quota of 600,000 tons was released on November 6, 2025. By early December, approximately 400,000 tons of quota remained.
Recent Transactions:
Nov 10: 30,000 tons of granular urea sold at $406/ton FOB.
Nov 18: 5,000 tons of prilled urea ($405/ton FOB) and 6,000 tons of granular urea ($408-412/ton FOB) sold to South Korea.
Dec 5: Approximately 350,000 tons were supplied for the Indian tender at $388-395/ton FOB.
Jan 6, 2026: Export prices remained steady, with prilled urea at $395-405/ton FOB and granular urea at $400-410/ton FOB.
India
Tender Analysis (Jan 2, 2026): The NFL import tender saw the lowest offers from Koch at $426.8/ton CFR (East Coast) and $424.8/ton CFR (West Coast). These prices are roughly $5-8 higher than the previous tender on November 20.
Procurement Goals: India plans to purchase 1.5 million tons. However, due to regional tensions and a lack of new Chinese quotas, market analysts expect the actual volume to be below 1.1 million tons.
Current Status: The first round of counter-offers involved about 850,000 tons; a second round is expected on January 8, 2026.
Middle East & North Africa
Egypt: Prices rose following the Indian tender, reaching $450-455/ton FOB for granular urea by early January 2026.
Qatar: QatarEnergy signed a 20-year agreement with Japan's Mitsui & Co. to supply up to 500,000 tons of urea annually starting January 2026. On Jan 7, 2026, 45,000 tons were sold at $415-420/ton FOB.
Iran: Production has been cut due to winter natural gas being diverted to residential use. This supply reduction has pushed factory offers to $480-485/ton FOB, though traders are resisting these high prices.
Americas
Brazil: Driven by high temperatures and demand for high-nitrogen fertilizers, prices are currently sustained at $405-415/ton CFR.
USA: The next procurement cycle is expected in Jan-Feb 2026. Prices at the US Gulf were $390-395/ton FOB on January 7.
Europe
CBAM Policy: The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) took effect on January 1, 2026, causing initial trade disruption. On January 7, the European Commission proposed a temporary suspension of CBAM fees for fertilizers under special circumstances, pending fast-track approval.
Other Notable Transactions
Vietnam: 40,000 tons sold at $410-415/ton FOB to Australia (Jan 2).
Brunei: 30,000 tons of granular urea sold at $405-415/ton FOB (Jan 6).
Ethiopia: 90,000 tons of granular urea purchased at approximately $410/ton FOB (Middle East source).
Summary of Auction Prices for Coking Ammonium Sulfate (January 8)
The market for ammonium sulfate has seen a modest increase today. Some bidding prices have risen, primarily driven by support from agricultural and rare earth mineral needs. Market purchasing sentiment remains cautious. A slight increase in the price of Indian-standard urea has benefited market sentiment, but despite inquiries from international buyers, there has been no significant improvement in the final purchase prices. The disparity between upstream and downstream prices is limited, leading to cautious sentiment among traders and pellet manufacturers. It is expected that the market for ammonium sulfate will follow a low-level trend in the short term, with limited room for further price increases at the high end. Market sentiment remains largely cautious.