Hi all – please see below our weekly market report:
Nexus Weekly Update
22/01/26
In the Far East and South East Asia, the market started on a quiet note but optimism has begun to pick up towards the end of the week. Some owners are holding back from fixing forward business, adopting a wait and see approach and hoping not to get caught out should the market strengthen. Positivity is clearer in the larger sizes, with an uptick in Supramax enquiries leading to cautious optimism. Handies, however, are yet to show a meaningful pickup. Overall, the region appears finely balanced, with both charterers and owners in a mild stalemate, each reluctant to take action that could move the market against their respective interests.
In the Indian Ocean, the issue of tonnage oversupply continues to persist, with the market remaining flat and showing slightly negative undertones. The continued flow of iron ore has offered some support to tonnage on the east coast of India. There remains the usual flow of fertilisers and aggregates from the Middle East, though again not enough demand to push rates into positive territory. In the South African market, healthy demand for February dates is beginning to surface, which could lead to some rate increases in the region. Overall, the market is expected to continue in a similar vein, with a limited number of cargoes and just enough tonnage to cover at levels comparable to last done rates.
In the Mediterranean, the market had a more positive week than last, supported by improved activity levels. A rise in East Med cement runs, mostly on Supras, has been a key driver. Sentiment across the region remains broadly positive going forward. Not all areas shared this positivity, however, as the Black Sea market remained relatively flat this week after last week’s optimism for increased grain volumes failed to materialise. This is partly due to recent drone attacks in the Black Sea. As a result, owners are becoming increasingly reluctant to call Ukrainian ports, and forward grain cargoes are therefore not being fixed.
After a difficult start to the year in the US Gulf, signs of improvement emerged this week, with more orders coming to light, particularly on Handysize vessels. There is growing sentiment that this more optimistic trend will continue over the coming weeks, supported by increased coal and grains activity. However, limited Supramax cargo enquiries ex-WAFR this week have forced many vessels to ballast towards ECSA in search of employment. This influx of open tonnage has added further pressure to an already subdued market, where firm grain enquiry ex-ECSA has remained limited.
Bunker prices have softened marginally in line with the pullback in Brent, with physical markets remaining quiet and buying interest limited. Prices haven’t changed much overall, just slightly up, leaving current bunker prices around 450 USD pmt at both Singapore and Gibraltar.
SABIC’s ammonia plant in Al Jubail might be operating normally now following the rumoured outage started in late December 2025. The company’s January exports currently look more promising.
Meanwhile, Ma’aden’s long-idled MPC facility has yet to restart. This is widely expected to happen before the end of January.
Urea prices have declined on a daily basis. For short-term trading in urea, it is advisable to focus on selling positions. At the intraday short-term level, urea can be sold near the level of 1785. If the time frame is extended, it is still advisable to view the trend as bearish. Therefore, the primary strategy remains selling positions. These are my personal opinions and suggestions for reference only.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Qatar, prilled urea sale concluded today for 30,000 tonnes in the low $440s/tonne FOB for Feb shipment.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Saudi Arabia, SABIC sold 25,000 tonnes of prilled urea at $435/tonne FOB for end Feb/early March shipment.
We also have from yesterday evening another sale in Egypt. MOPCO another 5,000 tonnes at $470/tonne FOB for Feb loading, and the producer is now offering $475/tonne FOB.
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Morning. Further gains across Urea phys mkts y'day, and paper followed suit. Mar AG traded up to $450 (+$15 from day prior) after April AG activity at $430, while Bids also moved higher in Brazil, as Feb traded $450cfr. In Nola, Feb/March values moved into mid/high-$420s(up $10+/-). Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $421//$430
Feb $443//$455
Mar $448//$455 – traded $436, $440, $445, $448, $450
Apr $435//$445 – traded $430s
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$428
Feb $445//$460 – traded $450
Mar $442//$460 – traded $437
Apr $425//$445
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $455//$475
Mar $455//$470
Nola Phys: Feb traded $420 -$425, Mar $420-$426
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $425/$430 – traded $419, $425(500st)
Mar $425//$430 – traded $428
Apr $405//$415
May $380//$395
Jun $365//$390
Brazil Amsul
Jan $185//$197
Feb $190//$212
Mar $193//$210
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $335//$345
Apr $335//$345
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $610//$625
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
For export, now at about 415-420fob for prills and 420-430fob for granulars. Heard Linggu sold 13kt at mid-420fob level, Feb shipment. Still very limited availability from China and based on worldwide bullish trend the deal price keep increasing. Most of the players are still believe that we need to wait until end of Mar or Apr can have new export quota. Its very difficult to got more firm news before Chinese new year holiday.
For urea, domestic market at about 1720-1745rmb exw for prills and 1900-1905rmb exw for granulars. Its almost keep firm this week but actually its declined since increased in 2H of last week. Production at about 205.1kt per day keep in a high level and factory stock levels down to 965kt. So we can see the market still firm but based on the new high supply level, domestic futures already start softerned this week. Spot market will also slowly soft in further weeks based end of the season.
⚠️ FERTILIZER ALERT: Mosaic Extends SSP Production Shutdown in Brazil by 30 Days
Mosaic has extended the shutdown of single superphosphate (SSP) production in Brazil for another 30 days, due to the persistent surge in sulfur prices. On December 16, Mosaic announced the suspension of SSP production at its Fospar unit in Paraná and Araxá unit in Minas Gerais, in response to the sharp increase in sulfur prices, an essential input for fertilizer manufacturing. A little over a month after the last announcement, the company has postponed the interruption of SSP production and the suspension of new sulfur purchases for an additional 30 days. The units have a combined estimated capacity of 3.2 million tons of SSP per year. During the shutdown period, phosphate fertilizer prices have risen, particularly amid restricted supply from China, a factor that increases instability in the global market. The trend points to continued pressure on domestic prices.
LONDON (ICIS)– In Egypt, MOPCO sold 7,000 tonnes and 5,000 tonnes of granular urea to two different traders at $465/tonne FOB for February loading.
What is the relationship between the domestic price in China and the CFR price?
Many people are interested in the Chinese market, but they don't know how to convert and mistakenly believe that the domestic spot price in China, after being converted by the exchange rate, is the CFR price… WRONG.
As an importer, when receiving a CFR price, one needs to pay a 1% customs duty (taxes are waived for Japan and South Korea based on the RCEP agreement), 13% import value-added tax, and approximately 50 yuan in port fees (about ＄7 ).
So, assuming the domestic spot price in China is 4300 RMB, which is approximately equal to ＄614 . Then the CFR price = (614 – 7) / 1.13 / 1.01 = ＄531.
If you arrive at Dafeng Port, subtract 3 to 4 dollars.
If the cargo from a non-mainstream region, subtract $5-8.
If it is in Jumbo bag ,subtract 10-15 dollars (the port charges are high. This depends on the port of discharge)
As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, representing a decrease of 4.07% month-on-month. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, with the reduction concentrated primarily in the Inner Mongolia region. Although recent market conditions have been relatively weak and fluctuating, the main production and distribution areas’ urea enterprises maintained a fragile balance, with some enterprises experiencing slight accumulation of inventory. However, due to local demand in the Northeast driving nearby enterprises to sell their products, overall, this contributed to a decrease in the inventory of urea enterprises in China. Provinces with decreased inventory during this period include Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Sichuan. Provinces with increased inventory include Gansu, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang.
Yunnan
Morning. Urea mkts saw further positive signs y'day with higher phys reports in N.Africa & Nigeria. Paper values also moved higher as Int'l activity focused on MAR AG in low/mid-$430s, while MAR Nola traded to $420 before finding resistance.
AG
Jan $421//$428
Feb $430//$445
Mar $432//$440 – traded $433, $435s
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$427
Feb $425//$445
Mar $425//$445
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $448//$465
Mar $445//$465
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $418, $416, $417
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $415/$423
Mar $418//$422 – traded $420, $418, $416, $417, $419
Apr $403//$410 – traded $405
May $375//$390
Jun $360//$385
Brazil Amsul
Jan $185//$192
Feb $185//$195
Mar $183//$195
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $330//$340
DAP Nola
Phys: Feb & Mar trades $610
Jan $615//$630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $610//$625
Q3 $590//$615
Phys: Feb MAP traded $640
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
News of a potential freeze on carbon duties for fertiliser imports into the EU nearly a fortnight ago may have stalled ammonia European import demand in mid-January, but EU importers could be on course to save close to $180 million on their annual ammonia import bill, Quantum data shows.
The $180 million Quantum estimate is based on Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) tariffs linked to announced default emission figures, coupled with an assumption of import trends being similar to 2025, when the EU imported close to two and a half million tonnes of ammonia.
Along with this, a removal of 5.5% duty tariffs on some major suppliers of ammonia to the EU, is also set to alleviate import prices into the bloc.
While observers say it may be months before there is any definitive legislation on a CBAM fertiliser freeze, and importers are likely to provision for CBAM costs associated with their ammonia imports in the near-term, there is enough data available to assess what the cost of CBAM may or may not be for 2026.
EU Ammonia trade and CBAM in numbers:
Firstly, its important to note that while there is a strong chance that CBAM may be suspended or watered-down for fertiliser imports into the bloc for this year, there is some consensus in the market that the mechanism will not be completely cancelled for fertiliser indefinitely.
But in the short term, Quantum has looked at what a freeze on CBAM for 2026 could mean in monetary terms, based on data for 2025.
Our assumptions are based on anecdotal import data for 2025, and the default emissions assigned to each supplying country. Looking at regular ammonia suppliers to the EU, Egypt has been given the lowest default emission rating by the EU at 2.017mt CO2 equivalent per mt of ammonia, while the US has the highest at 3.444mt CO2 equivalent.
Over the first 11 months of 2025, the EU imported 2.38 million mt of ammonia. Assuming December ammonia imports were the same proportion as the previous year, this would suggest the bloc imported around 2.47 million mt for 2025 as a whole.
Quantum has calculated a weighted average from the default emissions that were released by the EU in December to the 2025 import data and supply origins.
Based on Quantum's calculations, average emissions on the 2025 imports would be 2.38 mt CO2 equivalent for each tonne of imported ammonia. The EU allowance for ammonia imports in 2026 is 1.48 mt CO2 equivalent, leaving 0.894 mt CO2 equivalent to pay on each tonne of ammonia imported into the EU.
If 2026 ammonia imports into the EU are a similar level to 2025 volumes, and assuming similar supply origins, there would be a CBAM liability of roughly 2.2 million in ETS-linked tariffs to pay through CBAM Certificates.
Front-month ETS averaged EUR 71.5/mt over the course of 2025.
Based on these assumptions, the CBAM cost for ammonia imports in 2026 would be EUR 158 million ($179 million).
Looking at this as a percentage of overall ammonia import costs, the data shows savings of close to 13% on every tonne of ammonia imported into the EU, in the event of a CBAM freeze.
NW Europe CFR duty-free/paid import prices averaged $552/mt in 2025. Based on this, the cost of 2.47 million mt of ammonia imports was somewhere close to $1.37 billion, implying that CBAM potentially adds around 13% to the bloc's overall import bill.
There are of course caveats here, as figures for 2025 and 2026 will no doubt vary. For one, the EU is likely to avoid imports from the US this year, where default emissions are 3.44 CO2 equivalent for each tonne of ammonia, and opt to source more from countries with lower emissions, like Algeria with its 2.1 CO2 assignation, so average imported emissions could well be lower in 2026 than the 2.38 CO2 e for 2025.
In addition, there could also be significant shifts in ETS prices that would impact overall CBAM costs, while there are EUR/USD exchange rate variables to consider. And if ammonia prices fall or rise in the international market, then the percentage cost of CBAM in relation to import prices will also alter.
However, given that ammonia importers have been accustomed to paying 5.5% import duties on ammonia cargoes from countries like Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Libya, the 13% potential cost of CBAM may not have been as dire as some ammonia buyers had feared.
In fact the EU confirmed plans to pause the import duties on Most Favoured Nations at the same time as it announced its potential waiver on CBAM for fertilisers two weeks' ago. The duty relief will most likely include the 5.5% tariff on US, Saudi and Egypt, which would have eased the cost of import prices in 2026, giving importers a further cushion to contribute to CBAM costs