Report: Brazilian Fertilizer Market Outlook 2026
To: Market Stakeholders
From: Fertilizer Analysis Team
Date: January 20, 2026
Subject: Shifts in Import Dynamics, Product Preferences, and Geopolitical Risks
Executive Summary
As of January 2026, the Brazilian fertilizer market is undergoing a structural shift characterized by a preference for low-concentration fertilizers (Ammonium Sulphate and SSP) over traditional high-content products (Urea and MAP). This trend, driven by 2025 price volatility and credit constraints, is expected to dominate discussions at the upcoming Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) conference in Miami (Jan 26-28).
1. Nitrogen Market: The Rise of Ammonium Sulphate (Amsul)
In 2025, Brazil reached a historic milestone as Amsul imports surpassed Urea for the first time.
2025 Performance: Amsul imports hit a record 20.8 million tonnes (+28% vs. 2024), while Urea fell to 7.7 million tonnes (-7%).
Drivers: Competitive pricing made Amsul the primary nitrogen source.
2026 Outlook: Russia, which supplied 17% of Brazil's urea in 2025, remains a supply risk due to ongoing conflict. Geopolitical instability in Iran and Venezuela further threatens urea availability, likely solidifying Amsul’s dominance.
2. Phosphate Dynamics: SSP Surpasses MAP
For the first time, Single Super Phosphate (SSP) has become the primary phosphate source for Brazilian farmers, displacing Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP).
Market Share Shift
| Product | 2025 Import Volume | Status |
|—|—|—|
| SSP | 3.2 million tonnes | Record High (+20% vs. 2024) |
| MAP | 3.1 million tonnes | Lowest since 2016 |
Key Phosphate Risks
China Export Restrictions: Quotas are expected to restrict high-content phosphate exports until at least August 2026, maintaining global price firmness.
Sulfur Price Surge: As a byproduct, sulfur supply is inelastic. Prices have reached record levels (some exceeding $530/t), significantly increasing production costs for SSP in Brazil and abroad.
3. Potash and Geopolitical Realignments
The potash market was marked by "sustained firmness" throughout 2025, with prices increasing by $5–$10/t monthly.
Belarus Sanctions Lifted: In late 2025, the U.S. lifted sanctions against Belarus (a major MOP producer). This is expected to realign global trade flows in 2026, potentially increasing supply options for Brazil.
Trade Flow Adaptation: Despite the removal of certain tariffs, market participants have already priced in higher expectations for 2026.
4. Domestic Challenges: Credit and Postponement
Beyond global supply chains, the Brazilian market faces significant internal hurdles:
Farmer Postponement: Continuing a three-year trend, farmers are delaying purchases for the 2026-27 soybean season and the 2025-26 second corn crop.
* Credit Risk: High interest rates and limited access to financing remain "red alerts." If farmers cannot secure credit, the cycle of postponed purchases will likely persist through 2026.
Conclusion and Next Steps
The 2026 market will be defined by the competition between low- and high-content fertilizers. While low-content options currently offer better affordability, rising raw material costs (sulfur) and credit bottlenecks present significant upside risks to production costs.
Would you like me to create a comparison table of the projected price ranges for these key fertilizers in Q1 2026?
This is a formal announcement from the Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology regarding the reduction of production capacity for a major potash fertilizer company.
Below is the translation of the document shown in the image.
Announcement on the Reduction of Potassium Chloride Production Capacity of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd.
Release Time: 2026-01-20
Source: Industrial Investment Management Office
Main Content
Due to the severe depletion of resource reserves in the mining areas belonging to its mining rights, aging production facilities, and low resource utilization rates, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has newly compiled the "Development and Utilization Plan for Potassium-Magnesium Salt Mineral Resources in the Zangge Potash Mining Section of Qarhan Salt Lake, Golmud City, Qinghai Province" to continue promoting the sustainable development and utilization of salt lake resources.
The company has voluntarily applied for a reduction in production capacity. Based on the opinions of the city (prefecture) and relevant departments, our department has studied and agreed to reduce the potassium chloride production capacity of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. from 2.0 million tons to 1.2 million tons.
This announcement is hereby made, and public supervision is welcome.
Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology January 19, 2026
Key Takeaways
Company: Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. (a major player in China's potash industry).
Action: A significant 40% reduction in official production capacity.
Primary Reasons: Resource depletion (ore grade/reserve issues) and aging infrastructure.
Goal: To shift toward a more "sustainable development" model rather than pushing for high volumes that are no longer supported by the mine's current state.
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Ammonia and urea in Venezuela. Will the country return to the ammonia market?
According to S&P estimates, the revival of Venezuela’s oil and gas industry would take several years and require investments ranging from US$58 billion to US$180 billion, depending on whether the goal is to simply maintain production or expand to full capacity.
Regarding ammonia and urea, Venezuela operates a complex of production facilities with a nominal capacity of 2.4 million tons of ammonia and 2.2 million tons of urea per year. According to the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Venezuela produced 400,000 tons of ammonia and approximately 700,000 tons of urea in 2024, representing utilization rates of 17% and 31%, respectively.
FertiNitro (Fertilizantes Nitrogenados de Oriente), located in Jose, Venezuela, is the country’s largest fertilizer producer, with a capacity of 1.2 million tons per year and 1.5 million tons per year. The complex, built in 2001, features two ammonia lines using Haldor Topsoe technology and two Saipem-licensed granular urea plants. It was nationalized in October 2010; previously, ownership was split between Pequiven, a subsidiary of the national oil company PDVSA (35%) and Koch Industries (25%).
Pequiven also operates an ammonia and urea facility at the Morón petrochemical plant. In 2014, the new plants were commissioned there, with a capacity of 600 kt per year of ammonia (using KAAP technology from KBR) and a Toyo granular urea line with a capacity of 726,000 tons per year. The site can also produce NPK and phosphate fertilizers.
Prior to 2018, Venezuela exported approximately 250 kt of ammonia and 500–600 kt of urea annually. However, exports ceased in 2019. Urea exports to Brazil and Mexico resumed in 2021, reaching 601.5 kt in 2024 and 440 t in 2025. Ammonia exports remain limited, with only a few cargoes—totaling 33.5 kt—sent to Turkey in 2023.
The decline in both export and production volumes can be attributed to international sanctions that restricted market access and undermined the economics of production, despite Venezuela's low gas costs. The collapse of the oil and gas sector resulted in unreliable gas supply to fertilizer producers and leaving production facilities idle. Sanctions also hindered access to essential maintenance and repair materials, catalysts, and other inputs critical for fertilizer manufacturing. Additionally, there is insufficient data to determine whether Venezuela’s domestic agricultural sector could afford fertilizers, given the challenges of hyperinflation, currency controls, and high input costs.
While there is no evidence that Venezuela has adopted more effective economic policies after Mr. Maduro's relocation to New York, the country does have potential. If conditions improve, we may see increased exports of ammonia and urea from Venezuela in the future.
Morning. Urea mkts further supported by news of higher phys sales in S.E Asia (Pupuk/Kaltim $436 end Jan/Feb ship't), but paper activity largely quiet to start the week, with US holiday also limiting participation. Paper framed:
AG
Jan $420//$427
Feb $424//$435
Mar $421//$435
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$427
Feb $425//$440
Mar $425//$440
Egypt
Jan $453//$460
Feb $445//$460
Mar $440//$458
Nola (as on Fri COB)
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $415/$420
Mar $416//$422
Apr $400//$408
May $370//$390
Jun $360//$385
Brazil Amsul
Jan $182//$192
Feb $175//$190
Mar $ 180//$195
UAN Nola (as on Fri COB)
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $330//$335
DAP Nola (as on Fri COB)
Jan $615//$630
Feb $613//$625
Mar $615//$627
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
Fei Yi Tong Daily Review: On January 19, the national market price of urea remained stable. Today, the quotes from upstream suppliers remained steady, while market transaction prices were generally inverted. The weakening of futures contracts further cooled the market. Downstream businesses became less enthusiastic about stocking up, while essential demand remained stable, with most purchases being small orders.
sulfur price update on January 19, 2026: January 19 Sulfur Prices
Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
Port Sulfur Market
Today, port sulfur prices experienced high-level fluctuations, with midday inquiry and offer prices ranging between 4,350–4,370 RMB/ton.
Market Supply: Current resource circulation in the market is tight.
Trader Sentiment: Traders maintain a reluctant-to-sell attitude.
Transaction Volume: Morning market activity consisted mostly of small-order transactions.
Market Outlook: Due to prices currently being in a high-range, overall market trading has become cautious, with limited follow-up on large-order transactions.
Yangtze Market Reference: As of the time of reporting, granular sulfur spot prices in the Yangtze market are referenced at 4,350–4,370 RMB/ton.
Price Change: This represents a 20 RMB/ton decrease at the low end compared to the previous working day.
Shandong Liquid Sulfur Market
The Shandong liquid sulfur market also saw fluctuations today, with local refinery auction prices landing between 4,100–4,120 RMB/ton.
Auction Performance: Most resource points closed auctions at the base price, while some auctions saw no transactions.
Downstream Demand: Influenced by recent weather conditions and continuously rising prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and "wait-and-see" sentiment has intensified.
Inventory & Quotes: Port inventories remain at medium-to-high levels, with resource quotes standing above 4,150 RMB/ton.
Refinery Pricing: Prices at major refineries within the region remained stable with no fluctuations.
Market Mainstream Price: As of the time of reporting, the mainstream price for liquid sulfur in the Shandong market is 3,890–4,120 RMB/ton.
Price Change: This represents a 10 RMB/ton decrease at the high end compared to the previous working day.
China: Potassium Chloride Market (January 19, 2026)
On Monday, January 19, 2026, the potassium chloride market continued its strong upward trend. The arrival and release of imported potassium remain limited, and supply sources are highly concentrated, resulting in a persistent state of tight market supply. Traders are maintaining firm yet varying price quotes; while inquiry activity has increased for certain products, a "reluctance to sell" sentiment has emerged for others. This is most notable in the prices for Lao white potassium, which have seen a slight upward adjustment.
Potassium Chloride (MOP) Market Prices
Domestic Potassium
60% Crystals: Mainstream arrival price is 3,100–3,250 RMB/ton, with high-end prices reaching 3,270–3,280 RMB/ton.
57% Powder: Arrival price is approximately 2,980–3,050 RMB/ton.
Prices continue to vary across different regions, with final transaction prices negotiated individually.
Port Prices (Self-Pickup)
62% White Potassium:
Qingdao, Lianyungang, Yantai, Zhanjiang, and Zhenjiang Ports: 3,150–3,450 RMB/ton (Note: Lower-end figures are guidance prices with scarce supply).
Southern Ports: Prices are higher, at approximately 3,500 RMB/ton.
Yingkou Port: Mainstream price is 3,500 RMB/ton.
Large Granular Red Potassium:
Qingdao and Yantai Ports: 3,300–3,380 RMB/ton.
Yingkou Port: 3,350–3,400 RMB/ton.
60% Lao White Potassium:
Lianyungang and Weifang Ports: 3,240–3,280 RMB/ton (The low-end price has been raised by 20 RMB).
60% Red Powder:
Fangcheng and Zhanjiang Ports: Approximately 3,230–3,300 RMB/ton.
Border Trade
62% Russian White Potassium: 3,320–3,350 RMB/ton (at the border/on-rail).
60% Large Granular: 3,220–3,250 RMB/ton.
Inventory and Supply Status
Current port stocks of potassium chloride are approximately 2.51 million tons. While new imported supplies are being replenished slowly, the volume of goods released to the market is insufficient. Sales inventory held by traders remains consistently tight.
Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Market Trends
The overall potassium sulfate market remained stable today without significant fluctuations. Manufacturers have largely maintained their previous price quotes.
Resource-based Manufacturers: Production is relatively stable, with continuous deliveries to downstream buyers.
SDIC Luo Potassium (LuoPotash): A new 52.5% SOP variety has an official arrival price of approximately 3,700 RMB/ton, though it has not yet officially begun shipping.
Mannheim SOP Manufacturers: Operating rates remain at a low level. New orders are not being placed actively, resulting in slow shipments and room for price negotiation.
Current SOP Price Summary
| Product Type | Region/Brand | Price (RMB/ton) |
|—|—|—|
| 52% Powder | SDIC Luo Potassium (Arrival) | 3,600–3,700 |
| 50% Powder | Qinghai (Arrival) | 3,550–3,580 |
| 52% Powder | Mannheim (Ex-factory) | 3,850–4,000 |
| 50% Powder | Mannheim (Ex-factory) | 3,750–3,900 |
| 50% Granular | Northeast (Ex-factory) | 3,850–3,900 |
Market Outlook and Reminders
Supply Dynamics: The supply of potassium chloride remains tight. Although downstream factories are mostly purchasing only as needed, the total available supply for sale is limited, and shortages of certain varieties persist.
Price Forecast: Short-term supply is unlikely to ease significantly unless there is policy intervention; prices are expected to remain firm with potential further increases.
Global Factors: The market should monitor the situation in Iran. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy chokepoint—gives it immense influence over international energy markets, which in turn impacts all fertilizer markets (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Potassium). <This message was edited>
Nevinnomyssky Azot chemical production plant targeted again by Ukraine
This plant, as I mentioned in my related article, is one of the largest nitrogen fertilizer and chemical production facilities in Southern Russia.
I leave some information about this facility good read
🚨🇷🇺
Nevinnomyssk Azot is an important chemical fertilizer and product factory in Nevinnomyssk.
The plant, which started with the production of ammonia in 1962, has expanded to the production of nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and ammonium nitrate, complex fertilizers such as NPK/NK and other chemical products.
It is the only manufacturer in Russia that produces melamine and high-purity acetic acid, and has unique production lines for methyl acetate.
According to data for 2026, the annual production is as follows:
~1.5 million tons of urea
~1.93 million tons of ammonium nitrate
~0.43 million tons of methanol
~0.37 million tons of acetic acid
~0.05 million tons of melamine
Additionally, expansion work has recently been underway for potassium nitrate production, with an annual capacity of 70,000 tonnes.
It serves various purposes, including industrial, agricultural, and strategic.
In the field of agriculture, it supports Russia's domestic market and foreign trade.
Industrially, it produces a variety of chemical intermediates and industrial chemicals.
Strategically, many of its outputs are dual-purpose, as they are used in the production of explosives, ammunition, and propellant chemicals. The plant is a key supplier of explosives and rocket fuel for Russia's military-industrial complex.
Amsul: Production at DOMO Chemicals’ German plants is continuing at minimal levels after the state government ordered their continued operation, citing #safety concerns, the company’s interim insolvency administrator said.
DOMO Chemicals filed for #insolvency for its DOMO Chemicals GmbH, DOMO Caproleuna GmbH and DOMO Engineering Plastics GmbH businesses in late 2025.
Negotiations with creditors for continued support failed last week, leading to media reports that #production at DOMO’s Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg sites had halted.
The Saxony-Anhalt government has intervened in the case, according to administrator Floether & Wissing, stating that operations at the sites needed to continue for safety reasons, taking a shutdown off the table. Production at the Brandenburg plant is also expected to continue at minimal levels.
The government attributed the move to safety reasons relating to the weather, which remains below freezing.
Tender January 19th 2026
Kaltim GU
OE : Undisclosed
Known Bid so far
– Liven USD 430ish
– Ameropa USD 430ish
– Koch USD 430ish
– Samsung USD mid 420
– Indagro USD mid 420
– Oracle USD mid 420
– Aditya Birla USD Low 420
– Camelot USD mid 410
– Golden Barley USD regret
– Heartychem bid less qty
– Hexagon regret
– MacroSource
– Dreymor
– Keytrade
– Valency
– Transglobe
– Amber
– Redsoil
Morning. Political tensions and uncertainty significant contributors to firmer prices across urea mkts last week. Indonesia tender (today) set to bring further price discovery/mkt definition – paper framed close of week:
AG
Jan $420//$427
Feb $425//$435
_[Feb traded $430 last week]_
Mar $420//$430
_[Mar traded $420 l/w]_
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$427
_[Jan traded $421-21.50 l/w]_
Feb $425//$440
Mar $428//$435 – traded $428 Fri
Egypt
Jan $453//$460
Feb $445//$460
Mar $440//$458
Nola – (current index $401.75)
Phys: Jan traded $417
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $415/$420 – traded $418, $415 (500st) Fri
_[Feb traded $410 – $418 l/w]_
Mar $416//$422 – traded $418 Fri
_[Mar traded $400 – $418 l/w]_
Apr $400//$408
_[Apr traded $410 – $400 l/w]_
May $370//$390
Jun $360//$385
Options: Mar $400 P $7.50 Fri
Brazil Amsul
Jan $182//$192
Feb $175//$190
Mar $ 180//$195
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $330//$335
DAP Nola
Phys: Mar traded $615
Jan $615//$630
Feb $613//$625
Mar $615//$627
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
Fertilizer Market Situation Summary and Analysis In China
Urea Demand:
1. India's NFL's latest tender only received bids for 970,000 tons (planned purchase quantity of 1.5 million tons), indicating strong domestic demand. A new tender is expected within two weeks;
2. The EU is discussing the removal of import tariffs on fertilizers (6.5%) and delaying the imposition of carbon taxes on fertilizers under the CBAM policy. The first quarter is also the traditional peak demand season in Europe;
3. The Australian and US markets will also enter their procurement seasons in March-June, supporting international urea prices;
4. Domestic urea prices in China have already increased by 250-300 yuan per ton, and the first quarter is the peak season for spring planting preparations in China;
Urea Supply:
1. China has not yet announced the new urea export quota for 2026, resulting in a supply gap in the international market;
2. Due to weather-related supply shifts to residential heating, only one of Iran's seven urea plants, Pardis, is currently operating at a low 50% capacity. Since December 17th, Iranian urea plants have reduced production by a total of 450,000 tons;
3. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated, leading to a significant reduction in urea exports from Venezuela;
Ammonium Sulfate:
1. The caprolactam and new energy industries continue to experience losses, and industry self-regulatory associations are strictly controlling factory production cuts, ensuring that the tight supply situation will continue;
2. Domestic NPK factories are experiencing peak demand for raw materials, and Chinese urea will undoubtedly prioritize meeting domestic demand in the coming months;
3. China is currently experiencing a dry season, leading to a surge in demand for ammonium sulfate from the rare earth industry;
4. Recently, there has been an increase in international inquiries for ammonium sulfate, the market fundamentals remain stable, and forward prices are expected to remain firm. <This message was edited>
This is a comprehensive market report on the phosphorus chemical industry, fertilizers, and related raw materials in China. Below is the professional translation into English:
Phosphate Rock
Prices for phosphate rock remain firm. Downstream phosphate fertilizer and chemical enterprises are maintaining operating rates at approximately 50%, with ore procurement volumes remaining stable. Against this backdrop, mining companies are primarily focused on fulfilling existing orders and remain cautious about signing new ones. Market operations are generally stable as supply and demand sides engage in a "tug-of-war" (price discovery).
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP – Fertilizer Grade)
Last week, the domestic MAP market saw stable operations with no significant price fluctuations. In Hubei, the mainstream ex-factory price for 55% powder remains around 3,800–3,850 RMB/ton, with actual transactions settled through negotiation. Trading activity for new orders is average, and market prices are currently inverted (lower) compared to factory quotes. however, as the cost of raw material sulfur continues to rise, production costs remain high, providing price support. The short-term outlook is expected to be stable with a "wait-and-see" approach.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)
The domestic DAP market remained in a deadlock last week. With sulfur prices staying high, the cost side continues to face pressure. In Hubei, the ex-factory price for 64% DAP is between 4,100–4,150 RMB/ton, with actual orders open to negotiation. Downstream demand is relatively flat, limited primarily to "just-in-time" procurement. Overall trading sentiment is thin, and the market is expected to continue its consolidation trend in the short term.
Industrial Grade Monoammonium Phosphate (Industrial MAP)
The industrial MAP market underwent consolidation last week. The mainstream average market price for 73% industrial MAP is approximately 6,500 RMB/ton, with specific transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Enterprises are mainly delivering on pre-orders, and some factories are accepting small volumes of new orders. Downstream caution persists, and market participants are operating conservatively with demand-based purchasing. The market is expected to remain "weakly stable" in the short term, with attention on raw material costs and downstream demand.
Yellow Phosphorus
Yellow phosphorus prices continued to rise last week, providing rigid support for thermal-process phosphoric acid. This has kept prices firm, with slight increases in some regions. The market for wet-process purified phosphoric acid also remains strong. On the cost side, raw materials like sulfur and sulfuric acid continue to fluctuate at high levels. On the supply side, some factories have reduced production or entered maintenance, leading to tight supply in certain areas. Overall, cost support combined with demand from the new energy sector is driving phosphoric acid prices to remain high. In Sichuan, the ex-factory price for thermal-process phosphoric acid (purified) is referenced at 6,700–6,750 RMB/ton, with actual prices negotiated based on volume.
Phosphoric Acid
(Note: This section in the source text repeats the Yellow Phosphorus analysis regarding thermal and wet-process acid). Prices remain firm due to the upward trend of yellow phosphorus and high costs of sulfur/sulfuric acid. Supply remains tight in local regions due to maintenance.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP)
The DCP market consolidated last week. Due to sulfuric acid price adjustments in certain regions and a sudden drop in temperature, production costs rose. To ensure the timely delivery of early orders, some manufacturers cancelled previous price negotiations. This triggered a wave of concentrated restocking from downstream buyers. Mainstream reference prices are:
Yunnan: 3,780 RMB/ton (Trade market)
Sichuan: 3,890 RMB/ton (Manufacturer trade)
Hubei: 4,000 RMB/ton (Trade market)
Monocalcium/Dicalcium Phosphate (MDCP): 5,060 RMB/ton (Yunnan); 5,130 RMB/ton (Guizhou)
Monocalcium Phosphate (MCP): 5,400 RMB/ton (Yunnan); 5,500 RMB/ton (Guizhou)
Pesticides
Glyphosate is operating on a "stable but weak" trend. Recently, the domestic market performance has been flat with a cautious trading atmosphere. Procurement is mainly for essential restocking. The technical-grade (TC) market remains in a deadlock, with buyers clearly pushing for lower prices. Reference price for 95% Glyphosate TC is 23,500–24,000 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated per order.
Sulfur
Last Friday, domestic sulfur spot prices continued to climb. The reference price for granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 4,370 RMB/ton (stable week-on-week). Despite market sentiment fluctuations caused by non-mainstream rumors, the overall market did not see substantial adjustments and remains robust. Bidding sentiment in the domestic market remains active. Last Friday, liquid sulfur in the Shandong market was priced at 3,890–4,135 RMB/ton. In the Northwest, low-priced resources are scarce, and the mainstream price reached 3,985–4,270 RMB/ton. Sulfur prices are expected to remain high in the short term.
Sulfuric Acid
The domestic sulfuric acid market saw regional adjustments last week. Prices in Yunnan rose slightly as local prices were lower than surrounding areas and production at some plants was unstable. However, prices for fertilizer enterprises remain stable due to "price stabilization and supply guarantee" policies. In contrast, prices in Shanxi saw a slight correction due to external market pressure and strong downstream "wait-and-see" sentiment. 98% smelting acid delivered to factories in Yunnan is 920–980 RMB/ton, while ex-factory prices in Henan are around 750–800 RMB/ton.
Iron Phosphate
Anhydrous iron phosphate is in a state of stable "tug-of-war." Mainstream quotes have gradually risen to 11,000 RMB/ton and above, with some manufacturers quoting over 12,000 RMB/ton. Downstream transaction prices are beginning to loosen. While old orders maintain previous prices, negotiations for new orders are trending upward. Due to raw material volatility, manufacturers are shifting from long-term agreements to monthly short-term negotiations. High costs of industrial MAP and purified phosphoric acid continue to put immense pressure on iron phosphate producers. Given that downstream demand remains strong, manufacturers have a strong intention to hold prices firm, with potential for further increases.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
LFP market prices are largely stable. Spot prices for lithium carbonate continue to decline, and risks regarding short-term uncertainty and price volatility remain. LFP enterprises have kept their quotes steady, but overall, the cost basis for LFP is weakening. It is expected that LFP prices will fluctuate downward following raw material costs. Today’s transaction prices are:
Power-type LFP: 51,000–56,000 RMB/ton
* Energy Storage-type LFP: 50,000–53,800 RMB/ton
Compound Fertilizer
The domestic compound fertilizer market was somewhat stagnant last week. While upstream raw material costs are rising, downstream buyers are resisting high prices. This has led to average shipping volumes and a cautious outlook from buyers. For now, enterprises are focusing on stable pricing to move inventory, and the market continues to consolidate within a narrow range.
Synthetic Ammonia
Supply and demand sentiment was mixed last week. Trading activity improved within the lower price ranges, and some players attempted to push prices higher based on short-term positives. However, support factors are limited, restricting the upside. The future market is expected to be cautious, maintaining a stable consolidation trend.
Hydrogen Peroxide
The market in Northern China remained stable last week. Supply is consistent, and major producers are flexible with order pricing. Downstream demand is limited to essential needs, resulting in average trading. In Anhui (East China), inventory levels are manageable, but new orders are scarce, leading to further downward adjustments in quotes. Short-term performance is expected to be "stable but weak" across both North and South China.
Potassium Monophosphate (MKP)
MKP continues to face cost pressures due to rising phosphoric acid prices. However, downstream demand remains lukewarm, and follow-up on new orders is limited. Market prices remain at previous levels, with ex-factory quotes for crystal MKP at 8,900–9,100 RMB/ton. Actual transaction prices are subject to flexible negotiation based on order size.
Ferrous Sulfate
The reference ex-factory price for heptahydrate ferrous sulfate in Shandong is 600 RMB/ton, and in Guangxi, it is 560 RMB/ton. Actual prices are open to negotiation.
Here is the transcribed data from the provided table regarding China's major fertilizer and agricultural trade for December 2025.
2025年12月中国主要肥料品种进出口量值表
(Units: Volume in 10,000 Tons; Value in 100M USD; Price in USD/Ton)
| Category / Item (项目) | Monthly Vol (当月量) | Avg. Price (报关均价) | Cumul. Vol (累计量) | Cumul. Value (累计金额) | Cumul. Vol YoY % (累计量同比) | Cumul. Val YoY % (累计金额同比) |
|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|
| EXPORTS (出口) | | | | | | |
| All Fertilizers (所有肥料) | 341 | — | 4627 | 137.55 | 44.0% | 57.9% |
| Urea (尿素) | 27.8 | 398.7 | 489 | 20.06 | 1778.1% | 2025.7% |
| Ammonium Sulfate (硫酸铵) | 199.7 | 155.8 | 2136 | 33.06 | 24.7% | 30.0% |
| Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) (磷酸二铵) | 15.6 | 731.3 | 348 | 25.20 | -23.8% | -1.0% |
| Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) (磷酸一铵) | 9.7 | 650.7 | 188 | 12.92 | -6.3% | 13.7% |
| ▲ Pure Nutrients (N, P, K) (折纯) | 70.5 | 849.9 | 1009.0 | — | 28.6% | — |
| | | | | | | |
| IMPORTS (进口) | | | | | | |
| All Fertilizers (所有肥料) | 158 | — | 1401 | 48.21 | -0.7% | 5.6% |
| Potassium Chloride (氯化钾) | 146.0 | 348.1 | 1261 | 39.46 | -0.1% | 6.1% |
| Ternary Compound Fertilizer (三元复合肥) | 7.5 | 597.3 | 117 | 7.09 | -4.5% | 2.4% |
| ▲ Pure Nutrients (N, P, K) (折纯) | 91.2 | 606.4 | 812.8 | — | -0.4% | — |
| | | | | | | |
| AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS (进出口) | | | | | | |
| Grains & Grain Flour (谷物及谷物粉) | 250 | 309.8 | 2579 | 77.10 | -48.6% | -48.5% |
| Soybeans & Other Beans (大豆等豆类) | 837 | 485.5 | 11475 | 519.56 | 6.9% | -3.8% |
| Edible Vegetable Oil (食用植物油) | 103 | 1263.0 | 1006 | 128.31 | 5.8% | 20.8% |
| ▲ Implicit Nutrient Import (隐性进口养分) | 64.0 | — | 828.5 | — | -8.8% | — |
Table Notes (注):
Pure Nutrient Conversion Factors for Exports: Urea (0.46), Ammonium Sulfate (0.21), DAP (0.64), MAP (0.60).
Pure Nutrient Conversion Factors for Imports: Potassium Chloride (0.60), N-P-K Compound Fertilizer (0.48).
Implicit Nutrient Calculation: Based on fertilizer efficiency (Grains 19.56, Beans 16.76). Vegetable oil is converted to beans at a 20% oil yield rate.
Formula: Fertilizer Efficiency = Agricultural Output ÷ Fertilizer Nutrients consumed to produce these products domestically.
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