Hi guys – hope all is well
Each week we write a market commentary on the shipping market, so here is this week's Nexus market report
15/01/26
In the Far East this week, the market has been relatively flat. A reasonable volume of cargoes has helped maintain tonnage levels broadly in line with last week across both the South and North. However, despite the stable conditions, the market remains firmly in charterers’ favour, and it would not take much for tonnage to build again, placing further pressure on rates. One notable development in the basin was an uptick in period market activity, with a number of operators locking in cheaper Handy period cover. Overall, expectations are that the basin will continue to plateau until Chinese New Year.
The Middle East and Indian Ocean have seen another poor week. Handies have been struggling in the Middle East in particular, with a large build-up of tonnage and very few cargoes available, forcing some owners to ballast out of the region. Supras had previously been more balanced, although this week saw a reduction in new enquiries, resulting in tonnage starting to build and increasing pressure on rates. South Africa has mirrored the weak sentiment seen elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, with a severe lack of cargoes leaving owners ballasting towards ECSA in search of employment. This is despite a growing volume of employed tonnage being tied up in congestion across East Africa.
It was another slow week in the Mediterranean. There were few prompt requirements, as most had been covered on the return to the office following the New Year, leaving spot vessels with limited options and forcing many owners to ballast westward. However, there is growing optimism that the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets will improve over the coming weeks, as grain houses in the region are expected to return with fresh enquiries for February/March laycans. This, combined with a decreasing tonnage list due to vessels ballasting out, is expected to provide some upward stimulus to rates in the region.
The US has been the main area of strength across the Atlantic recently, with a healthy volume of enquiry helping to work through what had been a large tonnage list. That said, enquiry has begun to tail off towards the end of the week, leading some to believe rates may soften once again. In East Coast South America, however, the picture has been very different, with insufficient enquiry to absorb available tonnage, compounded by a steady flow of ballasters from South Africa, West Africa, and the Mediterranean. Despite this, expectations are that activity in the region will begin to pick up soon. West Coast South America has been firm thus expecting a reduction in ballasters. An increase of forward enquiry as well is supporting expectations that rates will stabilise into next week and potentially begin to firm.
Bunker prices have rebounded back up this week with Singapore trading at 445 and Gibraltar at 455. This is largely due to further issues and unrest in Iran combined with new US tariffs.
In China: According to Baichuan Yingfu’s statistics, on January 15 (Thursday), the inventory of urea enterprises stood at 1.0667 million tons (including 239,700 tons of warehouse inventory), an increase of 0.6800 million tons from Monday of the previous week and a decrease of 0.6000 million tons from Thursday of the previous week.
The fields resound with music, as the spring tide converges with the land of Chu. Listen to the rhythm of sulfur, phosphorus, potassium, and nitrogen in the industry, and grasp the promise of a bountiful harvest emerging from the depths of the soil.
The Baichuan Yingfu 2026 (13th) Fertilizer Market Seminar and Customer Meeting will be held in Wuhan from March 4 to 6. We sincerely invite you to attend the event.
Indonesia: With export licences now approved, Pupuk Holdings has issued a new sales tender for 45,000t of granular urea. The product offered is for shipment end-January into February with bids invited on 19 January.
The producer often places greater volumes through such tenders than detailed in tender documents. This will be the first sales tender since early-Q4 when product was placed for November into December shipment.
The company is reported to have received export licences for around 1.4m. tonnes of urea, broadly in line with last year.
Other suppliers in the region have already made sales or have contract commitments into February with price targets for nearby markets put around $420pt fob.
As reported previously, comparable levels had previously been paid for long-haul markets for February movement.
Sri Lanka: Tsp have remaining stock from last season around 25000mt within the country as of now. Urea will need around 60,000mt in April for May arrival
Morning. Urea paper firming up y'day as buyers returned. Int'l paper – Jan Brazil traded low-$420s, Feb AG up to $430 (+$7 from Fri), Mar AG $420 (-$3 from Fri). In Nola, Jan paper traded $400-$405, with Feb/Mar/Apr values in $410-$415 range
AG
Jan $417//$425
Feb $423//$435 – traded $430
Mar $418//$427 – traded $420
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$426 – traded $421, $421.50
Feb $425//$435
Mar $415//$430
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $445//$465
Mar $445//$460
Nola – (current index $396.50)
Phys: Jan traded $410. Mar traded $415, $412, $414, $413
Paper:
Jan $400//$410 – traded $405
Feb $407/$415 – traded $410
Mar $412//$420 – traded $412, $415
Apr $405//$410 – traded $410, $410
May $370//$390
Jun $360//$385
Options:
Apr $395 Straddle traded $35
Brazil Amsul
Jan $177//$190
Feb $175//$188
Mar $ 178//$185
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Phys: FH FEB traded $615
Jan $615//$630
Feb $622//$635
Mar $625//$635
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $670//$700
Mar $670/$700
Aug $705 Offer
When calculating a net back from fca or exw to fob please use the following estimated costs (excluding freight, which should be calculated separately by using origin as loadport and discharge port as destination)
Egypt to Poland fob netback calculation:
USD 550 exw duties paid, in big bags
10 bags bagging
20 handling/discharge/transport to warehouse
5 misc includes shrinkage, inspection, insurance, contingency
35 freight (egypt/gdansk)
50 Cbam/6.5pct import duty if not egypt/uzbeki
——
430 FOB Egypt
All numbers to be read are usd/mt
In the 1990s, Venezuela pumped 3.5 million barrels per day.
Today? Barely 1 million
20 years of Chavez-Maduro mismanagement, sanctions, capital flight, and infrastructure decay have reduced one of the world’s great energy producers to a petrostate running on fumes.
The prize for whoever can fix this is extraordinary. Returning Venezuela to even 2.5 million barrels per day production (not peak, just respectable) requires $80 to $90 billion in capital investment through 2030. That’s upgraders, pipelines, drilling rigs, offshore platforms, refining infrastructure, and a complete workforce rebuild. PDVSA, the state oil company, is technically bankrupt. The Petropiar and Petrocedeno upgraders are degraded and partially offline. Expertise has fled the country.
But there are quick wins that don’t require massive capital. Chevron, the only US major with current operations in Venezuela, is already producing about 150,000 barrels per day from existing fields. With $2 to $3 billion in well workovers, maintenance fixes, and the Petropiar upgrader restart, Venezuela could increase production by 200,000 barrels per day within 12 months. Chevron itself could boost output from 150,000 to 225,000 barrels per day, a 50% increase.
That’s Phase 1, It’s achievable and It’s happening right now.
Phase 2 and Phase 3 the $15 to $20 billion upgrader reconstruction, the $80 to $110 billion full expansion to pre-crisis production levels are where the economics fall apart.
For export, now at about 400-410fob for prills and 410-420fob for granulars this week. Its increased follow with the worldwide bullish trend. There are one lot 6kt granular urea sold to Korea at about mid-420cfr, Feb shipment. Netback at about 410-413fob level. There are rumors again this week about new quotas will released after Chinese new year at 2H of Feb. But based on the domestic spring demand will keep released until end of Mar, so its difficult that to have new quotas before that time. Or the domestic market level keep increasing at this important time, NDRC or association will not willing to see it. So we think the China origion cargoes will keep away from the international market until maybe April.
Direct hedge paper values :
Good morning, latest levels;
Jan AG $413/$420
Feb AG $420/$430
Mar AG $415/$425
Jan Egypt $450/$465
Feb Egypt $450/$460
Jan Brazil $420/$425
Feb Brazil $420/$430
Mar Brazil $410/$425
Jan AS Brazil $175/$184
Feb AS Brazil $175/$184
Phosphate sentiments:
Fertilizer Market Report: Indian Subcontinent & Global Phosphates
Date: December 17, 2025
Reporting Region: India, Pakistan, and Global Drivers
1. Executive Summary
The fertilizer market in the Indian Subcontinent closes 2025 on a subdued note. The Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) conference in Delhi reflected a quiet market mood, driven by the off-season lull and logistical delays at ports. While raw material costs (Sulfur and Ammonia) remain firm, finished phosphate prices are softening due to high inventory levels and weak regional demand. A potential extension of Chinese export restrictions into late 2026 stands as a major variable for the upcoming year.
2. Market Focus: India
Current Sentiment & Logistics
FAI Conference Atmosphere: The mood was described as quiet, subdued, and pensive compared to previous years.
Port Logistics: There are significant delays at Indian ports, averaging about two weeks for vessels to berth.
Berthing Priority: Priority is currently being given to Urea vessels over Phosphates to ensure Urea enters the country first.
Supply & Stocks
Inventory Levels: Stock levels are considered healthy. Estimates place DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) stocks at just over 2.1 million tons as of early December.
Import Activity: Buying for DAP imports is at a minimum. New imports arriving now are likely destined for the Kharif season starting in April 2026.
Sourcing Shift: With Chinese supplies down significantly (from 2.5MT traditionally to ~0.5MT this fertilizer year), India has pivoted to Saudi Arabia, which has become the main supplier.
Pricing Dynamics
Price Divergence: There is a conflict between rising input costs and falling product prices.
Raw Materials: Sulfur prices are high and firming; Ammonia is also high.
Finished Product: Global phosphate markets are softening.
DAP Pricing:
Last Confirmed Sale: High $680s CFR (Saudi Arabian origin).
Buyer Sentiment: Buyers believe prices should fall further, referencing $650 CFR as the target level.
Phosphoric Acid:
Current Price: $1,290 per ton P2O5 (Q4 price).
Q1 2026 Negotiations: These are expected to be contentious. Producers face high sulfur costs (pushing for increases up to $1,400), while buyers point to falling DAP prices (pushing for decreases of ~$100).
3. Market Focus: Pakistan
Supply Strategy
Healthy Stocks: Pakistan ends the year with healthy DAP volumes, avoiding last-minute panic buying.
Early Buying: Importers stepped into the market early (Q1 2025), capitalizing on global supply before India entered the market.
Diversification: Like India, Pakistan has shifted sourcing away from China, relying more on other origins.
Demand & Economics
Demand Destruction: Demand dropped by approximately 20% between January and October compared to the previous year.
Farmer Economics: Low crop prices and a lack of government subsidies have severely impacted farmer affordability.
Price Inversion: In a rare market occurrence, Pakistan's DAP import prices have dropped below India's CFR prices. This is due to local importers holding expensive stock and panic selling at a discount to clear inventory in a low-demand environment.
4. Global Drivers & Emerging Trends
The "China Factor"
Export Ban News: Reports circulated on December 11, 2025, suggesting Chinese phosphate exports might not re-emerge until August 2026.
Market Impact: If confirmed, this delay (past the usual Q1/Q2 return) would force major buyers like India and Latin America to continue relying on alternative sources like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco.
Product Spotlight: TSP (Triple Superphosphate)
OCP Strategy: OCP (Morocco) has been aggressively pushing TSP in the region.
Regional Reception:
India: Has accepted TSP shipments as they required the P2O5 nutrient content.
Pakistan: Has largely rejected TSP offers. The market prefers DAP, and importers are reluctant to introduce a new product when they are already struggling to sell existing DAP stocks.
5. Q1 2026 Outlook
Price Volatility: The first quarter is expected to be "messy" regarding pricing mechanisms due to the disconnect between raw material costs and finished product valuation.
Wait-and-See Approach: Market participants are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for confirmation on Chinese export policies and the outcome of Phos Acid negotiations.
South Asian Demand: No significant import demand is expected from India or Pakistan in Q1 due to sufficient stock levels and the off-season timing. <This message was edited>
Morning. (Geopolitical) Uncertainty bringing caution to Int'l paper with thin activity once again y'day. In Nola, Urea values moved higher – Mar paper traded up to $410, while Jan phys traded to $405 (up $4-$9 from day prior)
AG
Jan $415//$425
Feb $420//$430
Mar $415//$428
Cfr Brazil
Jan $418//$422
Feb $418//$435
Mar $415//$429
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $447//$460
Mar $440//$460
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $400, $405. Feb $402, Mar $404-405
Paper:
Jan $395//$405
Feb $400/$410 – $410 (500st)
Mar $404//$413 – traded $404, $408, $410
Apr $398//$405 – traded $400
May $370//$390
Jun $360//$385
Options:
Mar $435 C traded $6
Jul $400 C traded $8
Brazil Amsul
Jan $177//$187
Feb $175//$184
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $622//$635
Mar $625//$635
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $670//$700
Mar $665//$695
Q2 $670//$705
In China: In the morning, the overall reception at urea factories in major production regions such as Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and Anhui was favorable. Gradually, factories began to suspend reception, impose restrictions, and raise prices. Market sentiment has picked up, and the short-term market trend is expected to remain strong. Regions that primarily export will likely initiate their Spring Festival reception plans next week.
Sulphur: just keeps tightening. Qatar is having production issues apparently. The protests in Iran could curb supply from there as well. I think people are anxious about a massive crash
600kt dap tender for Ethiopia being held by Dangote
Morning. Quiet start to the week on paper for much of yesterday, as further mkt developments awaited. Late in the day, geopolitical concerns saw Apr Nola phys trade $405 after paper had traded $390. This morning, Mar Nola paper traded $404.
AG
Jan $415//$425
Feb $420//$430
Mar $418//$428
Cfr Brazil
Jan $415//$425
Feb $418//$435
Mar $415//$428
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $447//$460
Mar $440//$460
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $397. Feb $395
Paper:
Jan $390//$397
Feb $395/$408
Mar $405//$410 – traded $400 (1k), $404
Apr $395//$405 – traded $390 (500st)
May $365//$385
Jun $360//$375
Options:
Mar $420 C traded $5
Apr $410 C traded $7
Mar $380 P traded $6
Apr $395 Straddle traded $31.50
Brazil Amsul
Jan $177//$187
Feb $175//$184
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $622//$635
Mar $625//$635
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $645//$665
Feb $655//$680
Mar $655//$685
Q2 $670//$700