China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Association Document
Zhong Nong Xie Han Zi [2026] No. 3
Letter from the China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Association Regarding the Convening of a Matchmaking Meeting for Key Potash Fertilizer Supply and Demand Enterprises
To:
China National Agricultural Means of Production Group Co., Ltd.,
SinoChem Fertilizer Co., Ltd.,
China National Chemical Construction Co., Ltd.,
Huaken International Trade Co., Ltd.,
North China PetroChina International Co., Ltd.,
Heilongjiang Supply and Marketing Beifeng Agricultural Socialization Services Co., Ltd.,
Zhenong Group Co., Ltd.,
Guangdong Tianhe Agricultural Means of Production Co., Ltd.,
Shanghai Agricultural Means of Production Co., Ltd.:
In order to implement the work requirements of relevant national departments regarding guaranteeing the supply of potash fertilizer and stabilizing market expectations, and to effectively carry out the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of potash fertilizer throughout the year—particularly during the 2026 spring plowing period—the National Agricultural Means of Production Supply Guarantee Platform intends to organize and convene the "Matchmaking Meeting for Key Potash Fertilizer Supply and Demand Enterprises" in Beijing on January 27, 2026. The relevant arrangements are as follows:
I. Meeting Purpose
[Image 1 Content]
To build a supply and demand docking platform, promote the free matching of supply and demand between key potash fertilizer supply enterprises and key compound fertilizer production enterprises/key potassium sulfate production enterprises, reach annual long-term agreements, and stabilize supply and demand relationships.
II. Meeting Time and Location
Meeting Time: January 27, 2026, Morning 9:00–12:00
Meeting Location: Conference Center, Floor M, China Co-op Group (Global Finance Center), No. 1 Xuanwumenwai Avenue, Beijing.
III. Attendees
Relevant comrades from the Department of Trade of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Bureau of Agricultural Means and Cotton & Hemp of the All China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, and heads of industry associations such as the China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Association.
Comrades mainly responsible for sales businesses at key potash fertilizer supply enterprises.
* Comrades mainly responsible for procurement businesses at key compound fertilizer production enterprises and key potassium sulfate production enterprises.
IV. Other Matters
Please send 1–2 comrades from each invited enterprise to attend the meeting and sort out information such as available supply sources in advance. Both supply and demand parties shall confirm the quantity for long-term agreements to be signed on-site and file them for record. Formal contracts shall be signed supplementarily after the meeting, registered on the National Agricultural Means of Production Supply Guarantee Online Platform, and subject to performance supervision.
Please return the Attendee Reply Form before 12:00 noon on January 26, 2026…
Morning. Tone across urea mkts remained firm last week, with prices moving higher. Paper framed Fri close:
AG
Jan $425//$433
Feb $445//$458
Mar $448//$455
_[Mar traded $433-$452 last week]_
Apr $425//$440
_[Apr traded $430s l/w]_
Cfr Brazil
Jan $425//$432
Feb $445//$455
_[Feb traded $450 l/w]_
Mar $446//$458 – traded $450 Fri
_[Mar traded $437-$450 l/w]_
Apr $425//$445
Egypt
Jan $453//$465
Feb $455//$480
Mar $455//$475
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $430, $432, $428 Fri
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $427/$435
Mar $428//$433 – traded $435 Fri
Apr $415//$430 – traded $425 Fri
May $380//$395
Jun $365//$390
Brazil Amsul
Jan $185//$197
Feb $190//$212
Mar $193//$210
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $340//$350 – traded $345 Fri
Apr $340//$350 – traded $345 Fri
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $610//$625
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $660//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
Paper : Mar AG $455 offer firm
As well on Friday, Sorfert sold 12,000 tonnes of granular urea at 480 fob for feb shipment to europe
LONDON (ICIS)– Updates from Friday: In Egypt, Helwan has sold 6,000 tonnes of granular urea for February loading, at $474/tonne FOB and before that another 6,000 tonnes for February at $473/tonne FOB.
In Algeria, so far, we have again from late last week, a sale from AOA fot 25,000 tonne cargo of granular urea to Europe at $478/tonne FOB.
Nothing from today yet, slow start to the week.
𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝘂𝘀
In 𝗘𝗴𝘆𝗽𝘁, a shortage of 28% phosphate rock has been reported. Prices for 26–27% grades remain unchanged, but the price of 30% phosphate rock increased by up to USD 5, driven by higher freight costs and rising fuel costs. I will address this in more detail later.
In 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮, despite the sales slowdown observed in recent months, prices have remained stable. However, given the increase in production costs, it is unclear how long this price stability can realistically continue.
In 𝗝𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗻, 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗼, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗹𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮, no significant increases or notable developments have been reported so far.
𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻?
According to market reports, the minimum price of phosphate rock has not changed. What has moved is the upper end of the price range, which has widened by around USD 5.
Any seasoned market player knows this does not equal a real price increase; it is simply range widening.
In practical terms, this means:
No new transactions have been confirmed at the higher price levels.
Some sellers claim they can sell at higher prices.
The market, however, has not validated those claims.
So what is this move really about?
➡️ 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿-𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗽𝘀𝘆𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 — 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗶𝘂𝗺.
In other words, the market price level hasn’t changed; only the noise around pricing has increased.
So, what is the actual reality of the phosphate rock market right now?
1. Demand has not grown.
2. Supply has not tightened.
No major mines are shut down.
The only changes are higher logistics costs and unfavorable weather conditions.
3. Cost pressure exists (sulfur, freight).
But:
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀.
What the market is effectively saying is:
Sellers say: “𝗜𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀, 𝘄𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗽.”
But if demand stays weak, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻.
𝗠𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗱 𝗟𝘁𝗱. specializes in the supply of phosphate rock (24–32% P₂O₅) and phosphate products (phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilizers).
China Rumour:
Translation:
Rumor has it: Relevant authorities will soon convene a meeting regarding fertilizer supply guarantees.
• Until the prices of phosphate fertilizer and sulfur come down, export issues will not be considered.
• Until the prices of phosphate and potassium come down, new quotas for urea will not be considered for the time being.
• Exports of binary fertilizers and small-packaging products may be comprehensively tightened.
• Goal: To fully safeguard spring farming
Here is the full translation of the document in the image.
2026 Happy New Year
Proposal on Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices of Agricultural Materials
Shandong Agricultural Production Means Association
To all member units and industry colleagues:
Agricultural materials are the "ballast stone" of agricultural production, and winter storage is a key link to ensure the orderly conduct of spring ploughing next year. At this critical time for the winter storage of agricultural materials, in order to deeply implement the national deployment for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the Association hereby issues the following proposal to the entire industry:
I. Fully increase production and storage to consolidate the foundation of supply.
Production enterprises should seize the window period for winter storage, scientifically allocate production resources, and ensure that key agricultural materials such as fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films are produced at full capacity. Priority should be given to implementing the supply of raw materials such as coal, natural gas, and phosphate ore, and resolving logistics and transportation bottlenecks to ensure the steady release of agricultural material production capacity. Circulation and business enterprises should leverage their network advantages, combine them with next year's agricultural production needs, formulate reasonable winter storage plans, and increase reserve efforts in key areas and for key varieties. Accelerate the distribution of resources to grassroots outlets, ensuring that storage is in place and scheduling is orderly, achieving no stockouts and no supply breaks, and preparing sufficient "provisions" for spring ploughing.
II. Strictly adhere to the price baseline and maintain market stability and order.
Strictly abide by laws and regulations such as the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, and consciously fulfill the responsibility of stabilizing prices. Resolutely put an end to illegal acts such as hoarding, price gouging, colluding to raise prices, and disguised price hikes. Do not fabricate or spread information about price increases, and do not follow trends to hype up prices or aggravate market panic. Establish a transparent and reasonable pricing mechanism, strictly enforce the clearly marked price system, clearly display product specifications, grades, prices, and other information, actively accept social supervision, and truly yield profits to farmers to stabilize market price expectations.
III. Strictly control the quality of agricultural materials and protect farmers' consumer rights.
Improve the whole-chain quality control system, and strictly implement the system of inspecting goods upon entry and requesting certificates and invoices. Resolutely prevent counterfeit, shoddy, expired, deteriorated, and short-weighted agricultural products from entering the market. Prioritize the storage and supply of green, efficient, slow-release/controlled-release, low-toxicity, and low-residue high-quality agricultural materials, and actively promote new products and technologies that meet the requirements of modern agricultural development. Cooperate with regulatory authorities to carry out special actions to crack down on counterfeit agricultural materials, build a product traceability system, and let farmers use "worry-free agricultural materials."
IV. Optimize winter storage services and improve the level of service for farmers.
Based on the characteristics of winter storage, innovate service models and provide convenient services such as "booking storage + on-demand delivery" for farmers, reducing the cost and risk of self-storage for farmers. Organize agricultural technology experts to go deep into rural markets and fields to carry out training on the scientific use of winter storage agricultural materials, promote technologies such as soil testing and formula fertilization, and green prevention and control of pests and diseases, and guide farmers to purchase and store agricultural materials scientifically. Strengthen the exchange of information within the industry, release dynamics on winter storage supply and demand and price trends in a timely manner, and guide the market to arrange storage plans reasonably.
V. Strengthen coordination and linkage to gather industry strength.
Member units should play a demonstrative and leading role, take the lead in implementing the contents of the proposal, and actively undertake social responsibilities. Upstream and downstream enterprises should establish a long-term mechanism for production and sales connection, strengthen coordination and cooperation in all links of production, storage, transportation, and sales, and form a cooperative pattern of risk-sharing and benefit-sharing. Consciously accept government supervision and social supervision, jointly resist unhealthy trends in the industry, and create a market environment of fair competition and orderly norms.
Winter storage and preparation benefit the present and the coming year. Let us join hands, with a high sense of responsibility and mission, to firmly grasp the detailed implementation of various tasks for ensuring the supply of winter storage agricultural materials, and contribute the solid strength of the agricultural materials industry to safeguarding national food security and assisting the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas!
January 24, 2026
The US Department of Commerce will begin its review to potentially end antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on certain phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia in March 2026 after years of legal exchanges.
Moroccan fertilizer producer OCP and Russian fertilizer producers have been subject to countervailing duties on phosphate exports to the US since 2021, after US fertilizer producer Mosaic filed a petition with authorities alleging the two countries' phosphate imports materially injured the US market. But the upcoming review to determine if revoking the order would lead to reoccurring dumping or material injury opens the possibility of the duties' removal and a transformation in the US phosphate market.
The Commerce department in March 2021 imposed a 19.97pc duty on OCP, while Russian producers PhosAgro and EuroChem were subject to duties at 9.19pc and 47.05pc, respectively. But over the course of the last five years, those duties have been altered based on appeals and revisions.
In September 2024, Mosaic withdrew its 2023 duty review request against Morocco but did not rescind its request for a review into Russian phosphate import duties. This signaled a possible turning point for the US phosphate industry that later prompted OCP to note its readiness to return to the US, but the following month Commerce raised the final 2022 CVD rate against Morocco, sparking doubts about the return of certain OCP phosphates until they were entirely duty free.
But the lack of Moroccan and Russian phosphate in the US fertilizer industry and its impact on fertilizer prices has not gone unnoticed by US lawmakers. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) stated during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in October 2025 that the removal of CVDs against Moroccan phosphate would immediately ease farmer input costs.
"This review will obviously be very impactful," one trader said. "Currently the majority of US phosphate sourcing is from east of the Suez, and having the return of the two leading producers west of the Suez would create more market competition."
In addition to not having access to Russian or Moroccan supply, the US has had to pay higher freight costs from more distant origins, such as Saudi Arabia and Australia. It takes approximately 15-20 days for a vessel to depart Jorf Lasfar, Morocco, and arrive to New Orleans, while it takes about 35-40 days for vessels that leave Ras Al Khair, Saudi Arabia to reach the US port.
The Commerce department is obligated to conduct sunset reviews no later than five years after the antidumping or CVD order is issued, where following the review's initiation the US International Trade Commission (ITC) will set the review schedule and publish information in a Federal Register notice. Relevant parties will be able to file responses discussing the effects of revoking the order under review, and if responses are considered adequate then the ITC usually will complete the full five-year review within 360 days of the start date
Industry body Ammonia Europe has denounced the European Commission's proposal to remove most-favoured nation (MFN) import tariffs on ammonia to mitigate the impact of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on fertilizers.
The EU announced plans to suspend standard import tariffs on ammonia and urea following a meeting of EU agriculture ministers on 7 January, with extensions to other fertilizer products not ruled out. At the same time, the commission's reference to Article 27a created a backlash of confusion around whether CBAM could be suspended for fertilizers.
In reality, Article 27a could allow for a temporary and retroactive suspension of CBAM in cases where it has caused "severe harm to the union internal market due to serious and unforeseen circumstances related to the impact on the prices of goods". The clause was included within CBAM amendment proposals issued last month but still needs to be formally approved by both the European Parliament and the Council of the EU.
Ammonia Europe is calling on policy makers to "reject short-term fixes which fail to address the root causes of Europe's competitiveness crisis".
The industry body highlighted that solutions need to address Europe's energy cost crisis and ensure effective carbon leakage protection.
In its 7 January statement, the commission highlighted that fertilizer prices remain 60pc above their 2020 average. But this figure fails to recognise that feedstock natural gas prices have not returned to 2020 levels. European benchmark gas prices averaged $3.20/mn Btu on the front month contract in 2020. The same contract was assessed at $12.50/mn Btu on 19 January.
"Removing MFN tariffs does nothing to address this structural issue but rewards imports produced with cheaper energy and greater carbon intensity, ultimately further weakening the EU's industrial base," the statement said.
Ammonia is not limited to use in fertilizers. Applications also include pharmaceuticals, plastics, resins, glues, explosives and novel uses within the energy transition, which are all caused further injury by the tariff removal, the industry body said. The commission in July named ammonia as one of a few "critical" chemicals to the EU economy, which require additional support under its own Critical Chemicals Alliance. But removing import tariffs undermines efforts to address capacity closure risks in the chemical sector, and to ensure fair competition with non-EU producers who do not face equivalent carbon costs to those paid by European producers under the EU's emission trading scheme.
"MFN tariffs have nothing to do with CBAM. It would be completely wrong to remove them," Ammonia Europe chief executive Stephen Jackson told Argus. "This approach doesn't address root causes and risks further exacerbating Europe's lack of competitiveness."
Urea prices jump sharply
The rise in urea prices accelerated this week. Trading firms
paid higher fob prices across the board, with the US still the
premium deep-sea destination market, while expectations of
another Indian tender are adding to the bullish sentiment.
There was a fresh burst of liquidity in north Africa, with
Egyptian suppliers selling over 60,000t of granular urea
to European markets, trading at $455-470/t fob. Algerian
suppliers also sold to European markets, garnering a slight
premium over Egypt.
Prices in the Middle East jumped, with Qatarenergy closing
a prilled urea sales tender on Thursday, receiving a bid as
high as the mid-$440s/t fob for 30,000t. Sabic sold 25,000t
of prilled urea at $435/t fob earlier today. Indications for
granular urea pushed up to around $450/t fob Middle East by
press time. Iran's operating rates remain severely curtailed
and Pardis sold 20,000t of granular urea at $420/t fob. Nige-
ria's Dangote sold 30,000t of granular urea at $440/t fob on
Wednesday for loading in the second half of February.
West of Suez, urea barges traded up to $430/st fob Nola
for February-March. Suppliers lifted offers in Brazil, but
overall activity was muted, with granular urea prices for the
week at $425-440/t cfr.
Source : Argus
……………………..
NPK loading to Africa
Can Tho Fertilizer and Chemical Joint-Stock Company
Tra Noc 1 Industrial Zone , Binh Thuy Dist, Can Tho
Morning. Stand-off on Int'l paper for much of y'day following the prior day's activity/gains before Mar AG traded up slightly into low-$450s. In Nola, Feb/Mar paper values crossed the $430 threshold early on, before activity tapered off. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $421//$430
Feb $440//$455
Mar $448//$456 – traded $452
Apr $428//$438
Cfr Brazil
Jan $420//$428
Feb $445//$450
Mar $440//$455
Apr $425//$440
Egypt
Jan $453//$463
Feb $455//$480
Mar $455//$475
Nola – (Daily avg. $404.50)
Phys: Jan traded $427. Feb $430. Mar $430
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $427/$435 – traded $432
Mar $428//$435 – traded $433
Apr $410//$425
May $380//$395
Jun $365//$390
Options: Mar $450 C traded $5
Brazil Amsul
Jan $185//$197
Feb $190//$212
Mar $193//$210
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$315
Feb $300//$330
Mar $340//$345
Apr $340//$345
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $610//$625
Q3 $590//$615
Phys: LH Feb-FH Mar MAP trades $648
MAP Brazil
Jan $655//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $680/$710
Aug $705 Seller
UREA PRICES ARE ON A ROLL SUPPORTED BY INDIA AND THE EXPECTATIONS OF ANOTHER TENDER IMMINENTLY
-MAP PRICES IN BRAZIL ARE GOING UP DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABILITY WITH CHINA NOT EXPORTING – HOWEVER, DAP PRICES ARE STABLE ON MUTE DEMAND
-POTASH PRICES IN BRAZIL ARE GOING UP DESPITE SEVERE AFFORDABILITY ISSUE WITH TIGHT CREDIT AND LINGERING FARM DEBT
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE UNDER PRESSURE WITH INCREASED SUPPLY ON THE BACK OF LOW DEMAND
UREA
Urea prices are on fire underpinned by latest India tender. Basis domestic situation on urea it is expected that India may come back with another tender. Urea sales in December was a record high of 5.76 million MT, up 11% YoY. Cumulative sales April -December 2025 at 31.16 million MT up 4% YoY. Production was 22.44 million MT, up 3%. All these numbers are impressive and leaving a distinct impression that India is exceptionally important to the international urea business. What is also clear is that India’s desire to be self sufficient in urea is a long way off with imports again approaching 10 million MT per rolling 12 months.
In other markets, SUICI of Oman sold a cargo last week for March at around USD 420s PMT FOB but now the Middle East price is approaching USD 450 PMT FOB. Qatar Energy sold a cargo of prilled urea reported at around USD 440-445 PMT FOB which is USD 10 PMT above last done. MOPCO of Egypt achieved USD 470 PMT FOB on latest sale destination Europe. Dangote of Nigeria sold 30 KT at USD 440 PMT FOB Lekki. Pardis of Iran achieved USD 420 PMT FOB for a 20 KT parcel. LINGGU of China is said to have sold a parcel of 13 KT destination Colombia. Offers of urea in Brazil at USD 435 PMT CFR but with no interest currently. US/NOLA at USD 457-463 PMT Equivalent for February and March shipment which returns around USD 427-433 PMT FOB. Kaltim sold 40 KT to Koch Nitrogen at USD 436 PMT FOB – and it is expected that if another tender comes a price closer to USD 450 PMT would be in sight.
In summary, although the sky is the limit at times, what is clear is that the urea price is on the way up supported by India and geopolitical instability.
PHOSPHATES
MAP offers to Brazil have climbed higher this week while a trader is suggested but not confirmed to have sold product at $690pt cfr. Further details of any business at this price are unclear.
Some spot offers to Brazil are reported to have climbed $10-20pt from latest confirmed sales to $690-700pt cfr. Purefert last week sold MAP for February loading to Brazil up to $680pt cfr but the supplier has now stepped away from the market.
Brazil’s MAP import prices entered 2026 up $5pt yr-on-yr and have since jumped more than $40pt on tight supply. Some importers say they stopped purchasing at prices above $660pt cfr due to an inability to sell product inland at these prices.
Some inland MAP sales in Brazil are suggested by local sources up to $675pt cfr equivalent with reports of inland offers rising to as high as $700pt cfr equivalent to reflect further gains in import price offers.
No new DAP deals are reported to India this week with prices unchanged as low seasonal demand meets limited prompt availability and rising offers.
Offers for February loading from most sources are now reported over $700pt cfr, with some indications well higher than that as suppliers focus sales on other markets with higher returns.
However, demand remains low and buyers are yet to bid above the latest done $668-669pt cfr level, according to market participants.
India’s DAP consumption in December dropped 24% yr-on-yr to 869,190t, bringing the April through December DAP consumption to 7.99Mt, down 4.1% yr-on-yr from 8.33Mt in the same period 2024, according to latest industry data.
April 2024 to March 2025 (the 2024/25 fertiliser year) DAP consumption reached 9.28Mt, down 14% yr-on-yr from 10.81Mt in 2023/24.
India’s DAP imports in December declined 18% yr-on-yr to 407,000t bringing April through December 2025 DAP imports to 5.95Mt, up 46% yr-on-yr from 4.08Mt.
India’s calendar Q1 2025 DAP imports were at 487,000t from 467,000t in Q1 2024. This brought Jan-December 2025 imports to 6.43Mt, up from 4.53Mt in Jan-Dec 2024.
April 2024 through March 2025 DAP imports dropped 18% yr-on-yr to 4.57Mt from 5.57Mt. January through December 2024 imports reached 4.5Mt, down 30% from 6.4Mt in the full year 2023.
India’s December NP/NPK imports reached 577,000t, up from 118,000t in December 2024. April through December NP/NPK imports reached 3.29Mt, more than double the 1.49Mt imported in the same period 2024.
India’s full calendar year 2025 NP/NPK imports reached 4.08Mt, up from 1.91Mt in 2024.
India’s December NP/NPK production reached 1.11Mt, up 7.5% yr-on-yr, with April to December NP/NPK production reaching 9.27Mt, up 13% yr-on-yr.
April 2024 through March 2025 production reached 11.33Mt, up 19% yr-on-yr from 9.55Mt. Most Indian producers had been increasing NP/NPK production due to higher sales margins and consumption than for DAP.
There are no fresh DAP/MAP sales from China owing to current export restrictions and preparation for the Chinese spring season.
Latest DAP prices are still pegged indicatively at $680-700pt fob based on possible small-volume sales to nearby market. On the other hand, latest Pakistan and India DAP prices reflect no higher than $650-655pt fob China if higher volumes were to be available from the market.
As previously reported, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the CPFIA announced on 10 December that the export halt on DAP, MAP, and NPs would be extended until August 2026.
However, DAP/MAP exports from China may resume before this, depending on prices and supply in the country’s domestic market over the coming months and particularly through the key spring application season. DAP/MAP/NPK stocks entered the year higher in China with demand expected to decline in the spring season on high prices due to the sulphur price surge.
POTASH
The international potash market appears fragmented with Brazil and the US being the focal point. The overall potash market sentiment is weak with affordability continuing straining buying behaviour.
Brazilian potash prices have moved higher in recent weeks with sellers promoting higher prices, yet buyers are holding back. Affordability is key with soybean farmers suffering from tight credit and elevated debt levels restricting buying although inventories in Brazil are at the lowest level since 2019.
China’s MOP import reached record high in 2025 with a total of 12.79 million MT. Pupuk Indonesia tendered for 145,000 MT of standard MOP and major suppliers submitted offers just below the USD 400 PMT CFR mark.
Potash prices outside of SE Asia are expected to rise in the coming months supported by low stocks in Brazil.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices are coming under pressure with increased capacity and low demand. SABIC and Ma’aden have returned with capacity. Demand in SE Asia has come to a standstill with Pupuk Indonesia having offered to sell at USD 485 PMT FOB but buyers are at around the USD 470 PMT FOB level.
In summary, prices are expected to ease in the immediate future with new capacity coming back on stream in combination with weak demand.
The safe‑haven dollar slipped on Thursday, while risk‑sensitive currencies such as the euro and sterling firmed after President Donald Trump dropped tariff threats and ruled out seizing Greenland by force, helping calm jittery markets.
The greenback recovered versus the euro on Wednesday on Trump’s remarks about Greenland, after losing a bit less than 1% between Monday and Tuesday. It was last down 0.49% to $1.1744 per euro , following a 0.35% rebound in the prior session. The dollar weakened 0.69% to 0.7899 Swiss franc .
New Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data – the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – were unveiled, showing that U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in October and November, likely keeping the economy on track for a third straight quarter of strong growth.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.5% after rising by the same margin in October, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending increasing 0.5% in November.
The Australian dollar rose to a 15-month high, buoyed by data showing an unexpected decline in the jobless rate.
The yen remained under pressure after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this week called a snap election and pledged measures to loosen fiscal policy.
Trump’s threat to levy tariffs on allied nations resisting his ambition to control Greenland had spooked markets, triggering a broad selloff of U.S. assets. Still, some analysts said there was little evidence of a real move out of the U.S. dollar.
"This whole argument about European investors selling U.S. assets is very hard to sustain," said Bob Savage, head market strategist at BNY.
"This isn't a ‘sell America’ story, it's a risk‑management story," he added. "We’re just seeing more hedging because volatility has risen after being at very low levels at the end of last year."
Details of a framework for an agreement on Greenland were not yet known. However, "the most likely outcome is still that the next wave of excitement will pass us by after a brief period of volatility and that the market will refocus on central banks and interest rate differentials," Savage said.
AUSSIE SET FOR FOURTH STRAIGHT DAILY RISE
The Aussie was last up 1.15% to $0.684, touching its strongest level since October 2024, and headed for a fourth straight daily gain, outperforming even as risk assets came under pressure this week.
"The strength of both the Australian and the New Zealand dollar is the latest example that speculation about moves in short-term interest rates in relation to central bank policy remains alive and well," said Jane Foley, senior forex strategist at Rabobank.
The Japanese currency weakened 0.07% at 158.42 per U.S. dollar , near last week's 18-month trough of 159.45.
Analysts anticipate a hawkish tilt from the Bank of Japan at Friday’s policy meeting to help stabilise the yen, which is trading uncomfortably close to the 159-160 levels that are seen as intervention territory.
Japan's super-long-dated government bonds extended gains on Thursday on the expectation that the finance ministry could take some measures to contain further rises in yields.
Oil prices slid about 2% to a one-week low on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump softened threats toward Greenland and Iran, and on some positive movement that could lead to a solution to end Russia's war in Ukraine.
Brent futures fell $1.18, or 1.8%, to settle at $64.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.26, or 2.1%, to settle at a one-week low of $59.36 a barrel.
Trump said he has secured total and permanent U.S. access to Greenland in a deal with NATO, whose head said allies would have to step up their commitment to Arctic security to ward off threats from Russia and China.
European Union leaders, meanwhile, will rethink ties with the U.S. at an emergency summit on Thursday after Trump's threat of tariffs and even military action badly shook confidence in the transatlantic relationship, diplomats said.
"There is a deflation of risk premium related to the Greenland debacle and Iran supply risk has also been reduced," said Ole Hansen, chief commodity analyst at Saxo Bank.
Trump also said he hoped there would be no further U.S. military action in Iran, but added the U.S. would act if Iran resumes its nuclear program.
Iran, operating under sanctions, is the third-biggest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
With less tension around Greenland and Iran, oil prices should hold at around $60 a barrel, according to Tony Sycamore, an analyst with online broker IG.
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine said on Thursday after talks with Trump in Davos that terms of security guarantees for Ukraine had been finalized, but the vital issue of territory in its war with Russia remains unsolved.
Trump has pressured Ukraine to secure peace after nearly four years of war, despite few signs Russia wants to stop fighting.
A deal to bring peace to Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia, the world's third-biggest crude producer, could reduce oil prices by making more fuel available on global markets.
The French navy intercepted a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean suspected of being part of a shadow fleet that enables Russia to export oil despite sanctions.
Russian oil output fell 0.8% to 10.28 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, around a tenth of global production, according to data published on Thursday.
In Venezuela, another sanctioned OPEC member, trading houses Vitol and Trafigura were exporting fuel oil under a U.S.-backed deal following capture of Venezuelan President .
A proposed reform of Venezuela's hydrocarbons law would allow foreign and local companies to operate oilfields on their own through a new contract model, commercialize output and receive sale proceeds even if acting as minority partners of state company PDVSA, drafts seen by Reuters on Thursday showed.
The Trump administration is allowing China to purchase Venezuelan oil but not at "unfair, undercut" prices at which Caracas sold the crude before the U.S. removed Maduro, a U.S. official said on Thursday.
Boosting oil flows from Venezuela could reduce oil prices.
Also weighing on oil prices, forecasts have been trimmed for European corporate health.
Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Arabia's Aramco (2223.SE), opens new tab, the world's biggest oil producer, said global oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated as demand growth remains strong and global oil stocks are depleted.
US OIL INVENTORIES:
Oil futures extended losses on a bigger-than-expected crude storage build.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 3.6 million barrels of crude to storage during the week ended January 16, more than triple the 1.1-million-barrel increase analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and exceeding the 3.0-million-barrel build that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group reported on Wednesday. ,
EIA and API released their reports a day later than usual due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.