According to provisional data released by the Fertilizer Association of India (FAI), Indian fertilizer sales grew by 3.8% year-on-year to 31.16 million tonnes between April and December 2025. This growth was primarily driven by a significant increase in imports, despite a slight decline in domestic production.
Urea sales rose from 30.02 million tonnes in the same period last year to 31.16 million tonnes in the current fiscal year. Domestic urea production stood at 22.44 million tonnes, while imports surged by 85.3% to reach 8 million tonnes, helping to meet demand during peak crop nutrition months.
Output of Nitrogen-Phosphorus (NP) and Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK) fertilizers (excluding Diammonium Phosphate – DAP) grew robustly by 13.1% to 9.27 million tonnes. Imports of these fertilizers jumped 121.8% to 3.29 million tonnes. Despite the import growth, sales of complex fertilizers remained largely stable at 11.74 million tonnes.
During the same period, DAP production declined by 3.9% to 3.03 million tonnes. However, imports increased by 45.7% to 5.95 million tonnes. DAP sales totaled 8 million tonnes, slightly lower than the 8.33 million tonnes reported in the previous year. Potash sales grew by 5.3% to 1.77 million tonnes, while imports fell by 22.4% to 2.14 million tonnes.
Single Super Phosphate (SSP) also showed positive momentum, with production increasing by 10.3% to 4.43 million tonnes and sales growing by 13.1% to reach 4.71 million tonnes.
S. Sankarasubramanian, Chairman of the FAI, stated that the data highlights the industry's ability to ensure nutrient availability through a combination of domestic production and targeted imports. Director General Suresh Kumar Choudhary added that the changing nutrient ratios reflect a gradual shift towards more balanced fertilization practices
ICE canola futures rose on Wednesday, following Chicago soyoil prices higher.
The March contract rose $3.50 to $650.20 per metric ton. May rose $3.50 to $661. November rose $2.80 to $659.
Canola prices have been in an uptrend since January 2.
Chinese importers secured up to 10 Canadian canola cargoes following Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Beijing earlier this month, two trade sources told Reuters, easing supply tightness and potentially displacing Australian exports.
U.S. renewable fuel and biofuel policies have been supportive of soybean oils, which have also helped to support canola prices, said David Derwin of Ventum Financial.
Canola prices also tend to drift seasonally higher this time of year as markets begin to look ahead to spring seeding, Derwin added.
Chicago soyoil rose 0.18%, while soybeans rose 0.73%.
Euronext rapeseed futures rose 0.16%.
Malaysian palm futures traded flat on the previous day's session.
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Wednesday as oil prices rose to their highest since late September.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed up on Wednesday with recent dollar weakness making U.S. exports more competitive, but pressure from the early stages of a massive Brazilian soy harvest hung over the market. Weather fears in Argentina added support.
The dollar rebounded against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, but it touched a four-year low also hit during the prior session..DXY
In South America, intense hot and dry weather has hit Argentina, threatening crop production in the world's leading exporter of soy meal and soy oil and the third-largest supplier of corn.
Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is forecast to be a record soybean crop. Traders expect China to turn mainly to Brazil for imports in the coming months after a recent wave of U.S. soybean purchases.
CBOT March soybeans settled up 7-3/4 cents at $10.75-3/4 a bushel.
CBOT March soymeal closed up $3.80 at $297.80 per short ton.
CBOT March soyoil fell 0.10 cents to end at 54.31 cents per pound.
The U.S. dollar held gains against the euro and the yen on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, citing still-elevated inflation alongside solid economic growth, and gave little indication in its latest policy statement of when borrowing costs might fall again.
The euro was 1% lower against the dollar at $1.19163, while the greenback was up 1.1% against the yen at 153.90 yen .
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency's strength against a basket of peers, rose 0.8% to 96.667. The index sank as low as 95.86 on Tuesday, its weakest since February 2022, after U.S. President Donald Trump brushed off this month's slide, emboldening dollar bears.
"The Fed did nothing and did it with conviction," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said.
"In voting along 10-2 lines and subtly upgrading its assessment of labor market conditions, the central bank clearly telegraphed a desire to stay on the sidelines for now," he said.
The statement from the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee offered no hint about when another reduction in borrowing costs might come, noting that "the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to the policy rate would depend on incoming data and the economic outlook.
"What the market will be glad to see here is that there is no sign of bowing down to Trump from the core of the committee. They are standing firm," Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger Group in London, said.
"The rate path this year is wide open here, but I don't see any reason to cut until at least the summer. The economy looks solid, equities are soaring, inflation is sticking around that 2.5-3.0% range – why ease further now?," Chapman said.
BESSENT BUMP
The dollar rebounded earlier in the session after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the United States' preference for a strong dollar.
The United States has a strong dollar policy and that means setting the right fundamentals, Bessent said on Wednesday, while denying that the U.S. was intervening in currency markets to support the Japanese yen.
The dollar index is down nearly 2% for the year, after falling 9.4% last year.
Trump said on Tuesday the value of the dollar was "great", when asked if he thought it had declined too much. Traders took this as a signal to intensify dollar selling, ahead of a Federal Reserve policy decision later on Wednesday.
"The retracement/rebound in the USD is pretty logical, really, given that Bessent pushed back about as hard as you can imagine on the idea that the Trump Administration are seeking to engineer a softer USD, as well as putting to bed the market chatter that the Treasury were also seeking to prop up the yen," said Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone in London.
The dollar has been under pressure due to several factors: expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, tariff uncertainty, policy volatility including threats to Fed independence and rising fiscal deficits, all of which have eroded investor confidence in U.S. economic stability.
On Tuesday, the euro topped $1.2 for the first time since 2021, the pound hit 4-1/2-year highs, while the yen is set for its strongest monthly performance against the dollar since April, supported by speculation of joint Japanese-U.S. official intervention to support the Japanese currency.
ECB OFFICIALS VOICE CONCERN
The dollar's recent weakness may offer some respite to Japanese officials, but it is already a source of concern for others.
Two European Central Bank officials said on Wednesday the strength of the euro could influence monetary policy. Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher told the Financial Times the ECB may have to consider another interest-rate cut if the strength of the euro starts to affect the outlook for inflation.
Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said in a LinkedIn post that policymakers were "closely monitoring the appreciation of the euro and its potential impact on lower inflation."
The euro was last down 1.1% at $1.1907, but not far from the $1.2084 high, its strongest level since June 2021, touched in the prior session.
For export, this week at about 415-425fob for prills and 430-435fob for granulars. Some rumors today for export will start at April but cant got confirm. At least we cant see the China origion cargoes back to the worldwide market until Q2. Urea bullish trend make offers higher from China but very limited quantity still can export now. So if there will be a new India tender, China cant supply this time, only if they give a very wide shipment range. China still away from the worldwide market will keep give support to the bullish trend.
Morning. Tone on Urea paper remains supportive, with activity focusing on Nola y'day as March values traded higher into the upper $430s. March DAP also traded $5 up from day prior. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $425//$433
Feb $445//$455
Mar $450//$455
Apr $428//$440
Cfr Brazil
Jan $425//$432
Feb $445//$455
Mar $445//$458
Apr $425//$445
Egypt
Jan $453//$465
Feb $460//$485
Mar $455//$475
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $432, $433
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $427/$435
Mar $433//$438 – traded $435, $436, $437
Apr $415//$430
May $380//$395
Jun $365//$390
Brazil Amsul
Feb $190//$212
Mar $193//$210
UAN Nola
Feb $300//$330
Mar $340//$350
Apr $340//$350
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $620//$630 – traded $625
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $660//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $700/$720
Apr $707//$725
LONDON (ICIS)– In the US, the Tampa ammonia contract price has settled for February at $625/tonne CFR. The price, agreed between contract partners Yara and Mosaic, represents a $40/tonne increase from the January settlement of $585/tonne CFR.
Nothing on urea today. Very quiet after recent gains. Yesterday there was mention of 480 FOB trading in Egypt for a granular urea lot but couldn’t confirm the business.
As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 944,900 tons, down by 11,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.12% month-on-month. Compared to the previous period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises showed relatively little fluctuation during this cycle. Based on the trends in enterprise inventory, recent urea factories have largely maintained a balance between production and sales. Additionally, there has been a slight increase in agricultural flows due to the start of local agricultural demand. The provinces with decreased inventory among enterprises during this period were Hainan, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shandong, Shanxi, and Sichuan. The provinces with increased inventory among enterprises were Anhui, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan.
China Domestic: Market analysis for today.
The market has suddenly surged today, which is likely to boost the sentiment of the spot market. New orders from companies with relatively low prices are expected to increase, further solidifying the current trend in urea. Short-term manufacturers are accumulating orders; prices may continue to rise slightly. After that, we will observe the fluctuations in sentiment over the next two days. For the time being, the market can only follow suit passively.
Agri-Pulse’s Oliver Ward reported that “Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden (last week) accused Nutrien and Mosaic of working to ‘collude’ to limit U.S. fertilizer supply and control prices, suggesting that the administration could take future action to inject more competition into markets, if necessary.”
“‘This administration is going to do everything it can to ensure that farmers have the fertilizer [they] need, at a price that they can pay,’ Vaden said during a webinar hosted by the National Agricultural Law Center,” according to Ward’s reporting. “‘We’re not going to allow these two companies to do anything to undermine this.'”
“Canada’s Nutrien and Florida-based Mosaic were responsible for more than 90% of North American phosphate fertilizer and potash production in 2024, according to Farm Action — an ag industry accountability group. On the distribution side, Farm Action notes that just seven companies control 70% of crop input sales, including Nutrien Ag Solutions, the retail business of Nutrien,” Ward reported. “During the webinar on Wednesday, Vaden described Nutrien’s and Mosaic’s grip on the market as a ‘duopoly’ that is constraining ‘fertilizer supply in this country’ and driving ‘up the cost that farmers are paying.'”
“The deputy secretary said on Wednesday that he is closely watching a project to open a new fertilizer mine in Saskatchewan, Canada, that will eventually export to the U.S. and could ‘break up that duopoly’s control,'” Ward reported. “He didn’t specifically name the project, but the Australian mining company BHP has a venture worth more than $10 billion to open a potash mine in the region. The mine would be the 11th such mine in the province and could be operational by the middle of next year, according to a recent press release.”
“Vaden said that the Trump administration is on the lookout for signs that Nutrien or Mosaic could try to stifle the new competition,” Ward reported. “He pledged to protect ‘any other new market participant that wants to come in, provide new fertilizer supply, and break up the cute little game that Mosaic and Nutrien have been playing for the last several years.'”
USDA Says Reorganization Moves Will Happen This Summer
Vaden Also Took Aim at Farm Equipment Repair
AgWeb’s Margy Eckelkamp reported that Vaden also shared his concerns over farm equipment repair during the webinar.
“‘This administration thinks farmers should be able to repair their own equipment, and the industry’s efforts to prevent them from doing so are illegal,’ he says,” according to Eckelkamp’s reporting. “‘That’s why this administration’s Federal Trade Commission is currently suing John Deere and some of the fellow equipment manufacturers to stand up for American farmers’ rights to repair their own equipment and to not to have to suffer under a system where, when their equipment breaks down in the field, they have to call a John Deere dealer, for example, and wait for them to send out someone to fix a simple issue that the farmer can repair him or herself — costing them time, productivity, and money.'”
“He also says the administration is looking into how manufacturers distribute and sell their equipment. Specifically, the geography assignment and trade territories of dealers are being questioned in light of any price differences,” Eckelkamp reported. “‘If you should happen to pick any other dealer than the one they designate as your local dealer, they’ll charge you more for the same piece of equipment — the exact same piece equipment. There’s a financial penalty, which is prohibitive to you exercising choice over which dealer you use to buy your equipment — eliminating the ability to compete on the basis of price,’ Vaden says.”
“He adds the exclusive use of OEM parts at the dealership adds costs to farmers,” Eckelkamp reported. “‘So, all of these three things, when added together, limiting your choice of where you can buy, and then when you have purchased a piece of equipment, preventing you from repairing it, and preventing you from using anybody else’s other than their own parts, give them more pricing power, and allow them to drive up the cost of not only purchasing the equipment, but of ownership and operating the equipment — all which goes directly to their bottom line,’ Vaden says."
“John Deere provided Farm Journal with the following statement from Deanna Kovar, president of the worldwide agriculture and turf division for production and precision agriculture,” Eckelkamp reported. “‘For nearly 190 years, John Deere has been committed to providing best-in-class support for farmers and ranchers, and we know just how important our network of more than 1,600 agriculture and turf dealer locations supported by more than 50,000 dealer employees across the U.S. are to that commitment. Importantly, because dealer trade areas are not exclusive, our customers can choose to work with any John Deere agriculture and turf dealer in the U.S. and John Deere does not penalize customers or dealers for doing business outside of a dealer’s assigned area of responsibility.’
“‘At the same time, we wholeheartedly agree that farmers should be able to repair their own equipment, and that’s why John Deere offers an industry-leading self-repair tool like John Deere Operations Center PRO Service. Our approach is simple – whether you want to work with your trusted John Deere dealer, a local service provider, or do the work yourself, we empower you to choose how your equipment is maintained, diagnosed, and repaired. For more on our commitment, customers are encouraged to visit johndeere.com/runityourway.'”
Sulfur Market Structure: Supply & Demand Gap Supports High Prices in the Short Term
Sulfur prices rose throughout 2025, As of January 23, 2026, the SMM price for solid sulfur was quoted at USD541 /ton, and the weekly average price for Sulfur (Indonesia CIF) stood at USD 563/ton, with further upside potential. The fundamental reason lies in the global supply demand mismatch.
Supply Side: Limited Increment with Strong Rigid Constraints
Firstly, sulfur is a refinery by product, with its output tightly linked to oil and gas development. China's refining capacity expansion is restricted by policy controls, leading to a slow release of new supply. Secondly, as the world's largest sulfur importer, China relies on imports for about 45% of sulfur supply. In 2025, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to impact Russian refinery capacity. As the world's second largest sulfur producer, Russia has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, leading to a significant reduction in global sulfur supply. Unstable sulfur supply from countries like Kazakhstan and Kuwait, maintenance at Canadian production facilities, and unstable operations at some refineries in the Middle East further constrained supply increments. Coupled with the Red Sea crisis driving up international logistics costs, the tight situation in the global sulfur supply continues to intensify.
Demand Side: Steady Growth in Traditional Rigid Demand + New Energy Boom
Domestically, the traditional fertilizer industry accounts for over 50% of total sulfur demand, providing a fundamental base for price increases. Optimizations in agricultural planting structures drive steady growth in phosphate fertilizer demand. Throughout the year, phosphate fertilizer output increased, contributing to demand growth.
In the new energy sector, according to SMM data, China's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) output in 2025 was approximately 3.15 million tons, a YOY increase of about 67%, directly driving sulfur demand. Additionally,The commissioning Indonesia's MHP projects has led to a rapid rise in sulfur demand increments from the new energy sector, becoming a core driver for sulfur price increases.
Overall, 2025 presented a sulfur market pattern characterized by "supply contraction, demand structure reshaping, and a year end surge in demand increments." The Supply demand mismatch drove prices significantly higher. SMM expects that in 2026, the incremental supply will fall short of the incremental demand, maintaining high price levels that are more likely to rise than fall. If future Russian supply recovery falls short of expectations or new energy project commissioning exceeds forecasts, prices may continue their upward trend.
Key Risk Warning: Sulfur prices could face constraints if there is an unexpected recovery or significant volatility in global supply, intensified policy measures, or if demand in sectors like new energy fails to materialize as expected
A Giant Leap for Egypt’s Mining Sector 🇪🇬💥
Engineer Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, met with a high-level delegation from China’s Xingfa Chemicals Group to launch Egypt’s largest phosphate project, with total investments reaching USD 2 billion 💰.
This landmark initiative marks a strategic shift from exporting raw phosphate to building a fully integrated industrial value chain, maximizing the added value of Egypt’s phosphate resources ⚙️🇨🇳
🔍 The project covers the full production chain:
🔸 Exploration and extraction of phosphate ore
🔸 Processing and conversion into chemical derivatives and specialized fertilizers
🔸 Establishment of integrated industrial complexes in the Golden Triangle, linking raw materials to infrastructure and seaports 🌊
💡 Expected benefits:
✅ Export of high-value phosphate products 📈
✅ Creation of direct and indirect job opportunities 👷♂️🚛
✅ Localization of advanced technologies with strict environmental standards 🌱
✅ Strong support for the local economy and SMEs 🏗️
📌 The entry of Xingfa Group, one of the world’s leading producers of phosphate chemicals, is a strong vote of confidence in the future of Egypt’s mining sector. It sends a clear message to international investors that Egypt is moving decisively toward execution, not just announcements 🤝
🛠️ The government has committed to providing all necessary facilitation — including licensing, land allocation, utilities, and infrastructure connectivity — to ensure the project’s successful launch. This initiative sets a model to be replicated across other minerals and regions in Egypt.
📍 The phosphate project is not merely an industrial investment — it is a comprehensive development launchpad.
Morning. Int'l urea paper somewhat subdued to start the week – many attending FLA conference, awaiting further mkt developments after recent gains. In Nola, demand remained robust with Mar phys barges repeat trading $430. On Phos, DAP Nola traded $620 March, while price discovery found on April MAP Brazil at $715cfr. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $425//$433
Feb $440//$455
Mar $442//$455
Apr $425//$440
Cfr Brazil
Jan $425//$432
Feb $445//$455
Mar $445//$458
Apr $425//$445
Egypt
Jan $453//$465
Feb $458//$480
Mar $455//$475
Nola
Phys: Mar traded $430
Paper:
Jan $407//$415
Feb $427/$435
Mar $432//$435
Apr $415//$430
May $380//$395
Jun $365//$390
SEP traded $390
Brazil Amsul
Feb $190//$212
Mar $193//$210
UAN Nola
Feb $300//$330
Mar $340//$350
Apr $340//$350
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $615//$625 – traded $620
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Jan $660//$680
Feb $680//$705
Mar $700/$720
Apr $707//$725 – traded $715
Potash China fertilizer:
Today, Director Zhang of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting to facilitate the connection between potassium fertilizer suppliers and customers, advocating for “two stability” throughout the year. The first aspect is stability in supply, where suppliers and customers sign tentative long-term contracts, which are then submitted to the Trade Association and the Phosphate Fertilizer Association. It is required that everyone generally adhere to these quantities. The second aspect is stability in prices, with the requirement that prices be maintained at controlled levels throughout the year: $3,150 per ton at ports and $3,100 per ton for domestically produced fertilizer at arrival points. Additionally, the following conditions are imposed: 1) sellers are not allowed to engage in speculation or disrupt the market; 2) buyers are not required to rush or stockpile; 3) public discourse should prioritize maintaining market stability; and 4) individuals involved in each stage of the process are prohibited from engaging in intermediation. Once verified, individuals found to be engaging in such activities will be barred from participating in any subsequent supply-security meetings organized by the National Development and Reform Commission, and all associated incentives will be revoked. Director Zhang of the National Commission organized the meeting.
China Domestic: Market analysis for today.
Although there have been fluctuations in sentiment, based on yesterday’s corporate transaction volumes and price levels, today’s domestic urea market trend remains strong, with some slight increases. Short-term market transaction activity may be affected, but the overall market situation continues to stagnate. Prices remain relatively strong for the time being. Subsequently, attention will be focused on the recent developments in sentiment. Currently, manufacturers are continuing to accumulate orders for the upcoming holiday period.