Morning. Thin activity on Int'l urea paper y'day with nearby offers scarce – N.African phys prices run higher, AG values to be further defined in Qatar tender today. In Nola, loaded barge values leapt to low-$460s to cover shorts, Feb barges traded high-$440s before sellers returned.
AG
Feb $450//$465
Mar $451//$465
Apr $440//$465
Cfr Brazil
Feb $455//$470
Mar $455//$475
Apr $445//$463
Egypt
Feb $482//$500
Mar $475//$495
Apr $455//$480
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $463, Feb $448-46-45 -43. Mar $443-42
Paper:
Feb $433/$445
Mar $440//$445
Apr $425//$430
May $387//$396
Jun $365//$390
Brazil Amsul
Feb $195//$215
Mar $195//$220
UAN Nola
Feb $315//$340
Mar $340//$350
Apr $340//$350
DAP Nola
Phys: Feb traded $630
Feb $610//$625
Mar $620//$630
Q3 $590//$620
MAP Brazil
Feb $700//$735
Mar $720/$750
Apr $715//$750
Jun $750Offer
Here is the translation of the fertilizer industry chain report:
Fertilizer Industry China Domestic Morning Reference (February 3, 2026)
❤ Urea:
Although prices at individual enterprises softened yesterday resulting in a moderate volume of new orders, overall market sentiment remains poor. Most enterprises still need to accumulate a backlog of orders for the Spring Festival. Consequently, the urea market is currently in a stalemate, with a high probability of prices continuing to soften in the short term.
❤ Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market proceeded in an orderly manner. Supply is tight for some enterprises, and order books are relatively full, so there is no immediate pressure to secure new orders. Combined with low-to-medium capacity utilization rates in the industry, the market trend is expected to remain primarily firm.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, the supply and demand atmosphere for synthetic ammonia was weak. Prices across the market slid in tandem, and new order prices continued to hit lower lows. Some ammonia plants hold high inventories, while downstream buyers are maintaining only rigid-demand procurement. Producers are offering discounts to move shipments. The market is expected to continue a volatile downward trend; changes in downstream demand should be monitored.
❤ Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated in consolidation. With the Spring Festival approaching, operating rates at downstream compound fertilizer plants are expected to drop, limiting enthusiasm for restocking. Ammonium chloride enterprises are focusing on reducing inventory and stabilizing prices to secure orders. However, with no significant inventory pressure, there is still a strong intention to support prices. The market is likely to remain stable before the holiday.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the ammonium sulfate market was temporarily stable with a wait-and-see attitude. Raw material prices rose rapidly previously, and end-users need time to digest these costs. Additionally, as some restocking orders have been completed, sentiment for high-price negotiations has cooled. However, supply remains tight, providing support for mainstream prices. The market is expected to see mainly narrow adjustments in the short term.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizers:
MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate): Yesterday, the domestic MAP market continued to operate steadily. Although raw material sulfur prices have fallen successively, overall costs remain high. Supported by pending factory orders, prices show no significant change. Downstream compound fertilizer makers remain on the sidelines regarding raw material procurement. The trend is expected to remain stable in the short term.
DAP (Diammonium Phosphate): Yesterday, the domestic DAP market saw consolidation and observation. Raw material costs remain high, and enterprises are primarily executing pending orders. The ex-factory price for 64% DAP in the Hubei region is 4,100-4,150 RMB/ton, with actual orders negotiated. Demand is relatively flat, maintaining small-volume, on-demand procurement. Short-term consolidation is expected to continue.
❤ Potash:
Domestic potash market prices remain firm at high levels. As some downstream chemical plants still have raw material procurement plans, prices for certain MOP (Potassium Chloride) varieties have edged up slightly. Prices for imported 62% white potash are mostly between 3,150-3,600 RMB/ton. The SOP (Potassium Sulfate) market remains relatively stable with limited manufacturer shipments.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:
Upstream raw material costs remain high, providing undiminished support. With the operational window tightening before the Lunar New Year, shipments in some regions have seen some improvement. In the short term, market goods are expected to flow downstream, with prices maintaining stability amidst minor adjustments. Focus should remain on raw material trends, market shipment situations, and the production schedules of major enterprises.
Here is the translation of the market report:
China Domestic Market Information Phosphorus Industry Chain Morning Reference: (February 3, 2026)
Phosphate Rock:
Phosphate mines currently hold ample orders and have a sufficient backlog of pending shipments. Procurement strategies are leaning towards on-demand restocking, while downstream enterprises are primarily focused on digesting existing inventory. The current market supply and demand are tight, and prices for phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizers remain firm. The industry is operating smoothly; however, as the Spring Festival approaches, a cautious attitude on the demand side is restricting market activity, which awaits further stimulation.
MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate – Agricultural):
Yesterday, the domestic MAP market continued to operate steadily. Although the price of sulfur (raw material) has fallen successively, the overall cost basis remains high. Supported by factory pending orders, prices have seen no significant changes. Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude toward raw material procurement. The trend is expected to remain stable in the short term.
DAP (Diammonium Phosphate):
Yesterday, the domestic DAP market saw consolidation and a wait-and-see atmosphere. Raw material costs remain high. Enterprises are primarily executing pending orders. The ex-factory price for 64% DAP in the Hubei region is 4,100-4,150 RMB/ton, with actual orders negotiated. Demand is relatively flat, maintaining small-volume, on-demand procurement. The market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term.
Industrial Grade MAP:
Yesterday, the industrial-grade MAP market was largely stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream average market price for domestic 73% industrial MAP is around 6,500 RMB/ton, with actual prices negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Although sulfur prices corrected slightly, overall costs remain high. Enterprises are focusing on shipments, and downstream demand shows no significant movement. Market volatility is expected to be limited in the short term. Future trends depend on costs and downstream demand.
Yellow Phosphorus:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market remained firm and stable. Mainstream transaction prices in major production areas (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan) were 23,300-23,500 RMB/ton, flat compared to the previous trading day.
Supply: Producers are firm on prices and reluctant to sell at low rates. Traders, finding no low-price options, are gradually accepting current price levels to secure goods, driving a slight increase in new order transaction prices.
Demand: Downstream acceptance of high prices is low; procurement is limited to rigid demand and small quantities, with no large-scale restocking or hoarding.
Outlook: A clear standoff exists between upstream price-holding and downstream caution. The market is in a supply-demand deadlock, with prices temporarily stable.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, domestic phosphoric acid prices stabilized. With phosphate rock and sulfuric acid fluctuating at high levels, cost support for wet-process purified phosphoric acid is solid. Traditional phosphate salt new orders are mainly for rigid demand, and downstream sentiment is cautious. Yellow phosphorus prices are stable to strong; some thermal process plants have pending orders, reducing low-priced sources. The reference price for thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is currently around 6,750 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case-by-case.
DCP (Dicalcium Phosphate – Feed Grade):
Today, the DCP market is largely stable with minor movements. High raw material prices are pressuring producer costs. Downstream procurement is cautious, market sentiment is wait-and-see, and new order trading is light. Price fluctuations are expected to be limited.
Yunnan Trade Market: ~3,930 RMB/ton
Sichuan Trade Market: ~3,900 RMB/ton
Hubei Trade Market: ~4,200 RMB/ton
Yunnan MCP/DCP (I/II): ~5,150 RMB/ton; Guizhou: ~5,200 RMB/ton
Yunnan MDCP: ~5,400 RMB/ton; Guizhou: ~5,500 RMB/ton
Pesticides (Glyphosate):
Glyphosate is operating stable-to-weak. The domestic market has been flat recently, with a wait-and-see trading atmosphere. Procurement is mainly for rigid demand restocking. The technical grade market is deadlocked, with significant price suppression from cautious buyers. The reference price for 95% Glyphosate Technical is 23,500-24,000 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case-by-case.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, domestic imported sulfur spot transaction prices continued to dip slightly. The reference price for granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 4,150 RMB/ton, down 0.72% MoM. Import spot market activity remains low, and some holders lowered quotes. Domestic demand is affected by the "buy when rising, not when falling" mentality; end-users remain cautious, buying only on demand.
Shandong Liquid Sulfur: 3,703-4,120 RMB/ton.
Northwest Market: Shipments are poor; prices were 3,750-4,000 RMB/ton yesterday, with further downward trends expected today.
Outlook: Short-term prices are expected to trade sideways with a weak bias.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw local adjustments.
Hubei: Influenced by the centralized maintenance plan of the Sanmenxia acid plant in Henan, new order prices generally rose after early low-priced sources were shipped. Low inventory at major acid plants supports firm prices.
Anhui: Downstream purchasing is mainly for rigid demand; inventory is controllable. High sulfur costs are pressuring acid plants.
Outlook: Fluctuations expected to be limited.
Prices: Hubei 98% smelting acid delivered: 1,050-1,100 RMB/ton. Yunnan 98% smelting acid delivered: 1,040-1,100 RMB/ton.
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices are temporarily stable and watching. Upstream mainstream quotes are 11,500-12,000 RMB/ton (high-end at 12,000-12,500 RMB/ton). Mainstream transaction prices are gradually moving up to 11,000 RMB/ton and above. Upstream price-holding sentiment continues. Supported by downstream rigid demand, anhydrous iron phosphate prices will maintain a supply-demand game.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):
LFP market prices are primarily trending downward.
Market Context: Influenced by market sentiment and regulatory policies, spot prices for lithium carbonate have fluctuated downward. Iron phosphate prices are stable. Overall, LFP cost support is declining.
Demand: Due to the approaching Spring Festival and slowed delivery rhythms, terminal NEV sales have dropped month-on-month, weakening demand support.
Outlook: Focus on downstream orders and upstream lithium carbonate prices.
Prices: Power LFP: 55,000-60,300 RMB/ton. Energy Storage LFP: 53,500-58,000 RMB/ton.
Compound Fertilizer:
Upstream raw materials remain high, providing undiminished cost support. With the operational window narrowing before the holiday, shipments in some regions have improved. Short-term market goods are expected to flow downstream, with prices maintaining stability with minor adjustments. Focus on raw material trends, shipment situations, and production schedules of major enterprises.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market supply and demand atmosphere was weak. Prices slid in linkage with broader trends, with new orders continually dropping. Some ammonia plants have high inventories. Downstream is only buying for rigid demand. Plants are offering concessions to ship. The market is expected to continue fluctuating downward. Watch downstream demand changes.
Hydrogen Peroxide:
Yesterday, the focus of the northern hydrogen peroxide market shifted downward. Supply fluctuated narrowly, and some plants began reducing load. Downstream bought on demand. Approaching the Spring Festival, plants focused on active shipping. In East China (Anhui), supply operating rates dropped slightly, order support was insufficient, and some plants are operating at a loss. The market in both North and South is expected to run stable-to-weak in the short term.
MKP (Monopotassium Phosphate):
Impacted by rising prices of the raw material (phosphoric acid), cost pressure persists. However, downstream demand is tepid, and follow-up on new orders is limited. Market prices remain at previous levels. Reference ex-factory quote for crystalline MKP is 8,900-9,100 RMB/ton. Actual transaction prices are negotiable based on order size.
Ferrous Sulfate:
Guangxi: Ex-factory price 620 RMB/ton (Heptahydrate), actual orders negotiated.
* Qianjiang: Quote 700 RMB/ton (Heptahydrate, content ≥88%), actual orders negotiated.
Gd
Lordegan sold a 20,000 mt at $426.5/mt by yesterday’s tender.
At the end of last week , Abu Qir sold 6k tonnes of granular urea at $483 FOB February Loading. Then, sold another 5k tonnes of granular urea at 487$ FOB February Loading also for Europe Markets.
Morning. Urea paper remained supported last week against backdrop of higher phys prices, geopolitical uncertainty, tight supply, and timing of India's return still unknown. Mkts framed:
AG
Feb $450//$465
Mar $451//$465
_[Mar traded $450-51 last week]_
Apr $440//$455
Cfr Brazil
Feb $455//$470
_[Feb traded $450 l/w]_
Mar $455//$475
_[Mar traded $450 l/w]_
Apr $440//$460
Egypt
Feb $480//$495
Mar $470//$495
Apr $450//$480
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $438, $440. Mar $440, $438. Lh Mar – Fh Apr $440 Fri
Paper:
Feb $433/$440
Mar $435//$442 – traded $442, $439 Fri
Apr $425//$430
May $390//$400
Jun $365//$390
Brazil Amsul
Feb $195//$215
Mar $195//$220
UAN Nola
Feb $315//$340
Mar $340//$350
Apr $340//$350
DAP Nola
Physical: Lh Feb $615
Feb $610//$625
Mar $620//$630
Q3 $590//$615
MAP Brazil
Feb $700//$735
Mar $720/$750
Apr $715//$750
Jun $745 Offer
Potash Market Analysis 01.02.2026
Current Market Sentiment: Mostly Firm with Localized Pressure The global potash market remains generally firm as suppliers hold comfortable positions, though high prices are causing buyer hesitancy in several regions.
Primary Market Drivers:
1) Tender Awards: A major Indonesian importer awarded a tender for 145,000t of standard MOP at $389/t cfr, which is $56/t higher than its previous award.
2) China Price Freeze: In a significant move, major Chinese importers and suppliers agreed to hold ex-warehouse MOP prices fixed through the end of 2026 to ensure market stability.
3) US Oversupply: The US is the notable exception to the firm trend, where oversupply is currently pressuring prices downward.
Price Trends:
– Brazil cash cfr prices climbed to $370–380/t, driven by new business for February and March loading.
– Nutrien raised US MOP offers by $20/st to $375/st fot Midwest warehouses following a successful winter fill program.
30–60 Day Outlook: Prices are expected to remain mostly firm due to healthy global demand, though European prices may stabilize as buyers leverage the region's existing price premium to bargain
Jordan Phosphate Mines Company Projects for the Next Six Years
(Aqaba & Industrial Expansion Axes)
As part of its upcoming investment plans, the company has unveiled a package of major projects aimed at increasing added value, expanding downstream industries, and enhancing production and storage capacities in line with the highest international safety standards 🌍✅
⸻
📌 First: Strategic Industrial & Downstream Projects in Aqaba
1. 🧪🏗️ Establishing an industrial complex in Aqaba for the production of phosphoric acid and specialized phosphate fertilizers, in partnership with the Arab Potash Company
💰 Cost: USD 600 million
2. 🤝🇯🇴🇹🇷 Establishing the Jordanian–Turkish Fertilizer Company to produce phosphoric acid in Aqaba
💰 Cost: USD 400 million
3. 🏭⬆️ Increasing the production capacity of the phosphoric acid plant of the Indo-Jordan Chemicals Company to 1,500 tons per day
✅ (Capacity expansion – no cost mentioned in the above text)
4. 🧯⚗️ Construction of a sulfuric acid unit with a production capacity of 2,300 tons per day
💰 Cost: USD 200 million
5. 🧪⬆️ Increasing the production capacity of the phosphoric acid plant in the industrial complex to 1,500 tons per day
💰 Cost: USD 120 million
6. 🌾🐄 Establishing an animal feed additives plant with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year
💰 Cost: USD 40 million
7. 🌿🧫 Establishing a third fertilizer unit in the industrial complex
💰 Cost: USD 100 million
⸻
📌 Second: Logistics, Storage & Safety Projects in Aqaba
8. 😎🧱🚢 Construction of new phosphate warehouses in Aqaba to increase storage capacity by 150,000 tons
💰 Cost: USD 100 million
9. 🛡️🧯 Construction of new ammonia storage tanks in Aqaba in accordance with the highest global safety standards
💰 Cost: USD 40 million
⸻
📌 Third: Operational Efficiency & Mining Projects
10. ⛏️🫧 Establishing a phosphate flotation unit at Al-Hassa and Al-Abyad mines
💰 Cost: USD 80 million
11. 🛠️🔧 Continuous maintenance and upgrading of production operations
💰 Cost: USD 120 million
⸻
💡📊 Total estimated investment value of all projects combined:
✅ USD 1.8 billion
(According to the company’s six-year investment plan)
Prices have been up in the sulphur market for some months now, but this is the first time in many weeks where I sense sentiment is turning more cautious. I want to share with you what I said in our 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘚𝘶𝘭𝘱𝘩𝘶𝘳 and hear your thoughts.
As price levels inch closer to the last historical highs, there are continued worries over demand destruction. This comes on the back of Tampa molten sulphur settling at $495.69/lt DEL for 1Q, which is the highest quarterly Tampa settlement since 3Q08 at $617/lt DEL.
Market players are watching closely for any sign of market weakness and monitoring all offers. With the latest buying across China, Indonesia and Jordan, there are some concerns over spot needs in the coming weeks. Lunar New Year holidays start in mid February, while Indian fertilizer plants will start taking their annual turnarounds from March. Buying from Indonesia for 1Q is also largely done, though more could go to a few fertilizers and nickel producers. Brazil’s needs are slow, with Mosaic pausing some fertilizer production due to high sulphur costs.
We are fully aware of demand destruction in the chemicals sector, notably in Europe. Another one bites the dust this week with a Chinese titanium dioxide (TiO₂) plant to be shut permanently. Tronox announced earlier this week its plan to permanently shut its sulphur‑consuming plant that makes 46,000 t/yr of TiO₂ in Fuzhou, China, citing weak domestic demand and increasing costs of sulphur as the key reasons behind the decision. Some positive news in Europe, however, includes DOMO being ordered by the German authorities to continue operating its Leuna facilities at reduced levels for now, and BASF lifting its force majeure at the Antwerp site in Belgium earlier in the week.
The supply situation is largely unchanged. There is no Qatari spot tender this month, and Jubail in Saudi Arabia still has production issues, which resulted in two Red Sea cargoes heading to China. There are still no exports from Russia, and many are closely watching the situation in Iran, particularly as one January loader due to load in Iran for China is still pending.
There is a change in Kazakhstan, however, as Tengizchevroil (TCO) has confirmed the resumption of initial crude oil production after the safe commencement of the site power distribution system.
A flurry of purchase tenders are set to put Q1’s sulphuric acid availability under pressure.
Tenders issued by buyers in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and India totalling a potential 114,000 tonnes of spot acid – all for March arrival – will challenge traders to source tonnes at a time when availability ex-Europe and Asia is in decline.
Much of Japan and South Korea’s acid is tied up in contracts, Chinese availability is curbed January-April on government order, and European availability is already thin due to steady demand from domestic buyers on the Continent.
Reduced production from smelter sources in southeast Asia is adding to the potential shortfall in available spot acid; while burner acid – long the ‘relief valve’ for global acid requirements – is under considerable bullish price pressure on high feedstock sulphur costs.
In Indonesia, it is understood holding group Pupuk closed the first stage of a purchase tender this week for 60,000 tonnes of spot sulphuric acid for March delivery. This is unconfirmed.
Pupuk’s import tender process is typically drawn-out, and this first stage merely confirms suppliers’ suitability to apply for the e-auction process.
Meanwhile, looking to India, Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore (FACT) has issued a purchase tender for 10,000-14,000 tonnes of spot sulphuric acid, for arrival at Cochin 10-20 March.
The tender closes 9 February at 14:00 local time, with bids being opened 30 minutes later.
Offers must be made on a CFR (cost & freight) India basis.
Meanwhile, upstream burner feedstock sulphur pricing continues to increase.
India’s burners are understood to be running at around 60% capacity amid the high costs, it was heard – making imported acid a more viable option.
Finally, in Saudi Arabia chemical and fertilizer major Ma’aden closed a purchase tender 27 January for 20,000-40,000 tonnes of spot sulphuric acid for March arrival to Ras-al Khair.
The tender follows news last week of an award under a previous purchase tender for 40,000 tonnes of sulphuric acid, also for March to Ras-al Khair.
This tender closed 17-18 January, and it was heard Ma’aden purchased two cargoes from west coast India under the requirement potentially loading from the port of Mundra.
When asked where traders will find tonnes to meet these new purchase tenders, thanks to supply stability concerns, one source says rhetorically: “That’s the question, isn’t it?”
Adding to this is a further question of when Moroccan phosphate fertilizer major OCP will return to the market seeking tonnes.
It is widely expected phosphate fertilizer major OCP will not be seeking tonnes for Q1 2026 as some Q4 2025 acid shipments will be carried over into the first quarter.
If and when the Moroccan phosphate fertilizer major approaches the market seeking its usual 100,000-200,000 tonnes prompt, the current reduced supply from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Europe could lead to a sudden spike in export offer pricing.
Typically when OCP steps into the market, traders’ tonnes are delayed in favour of supplying the industry giant.
“Demand is getting stronger. [I don’t see] any downside,” the trader adds
UREA PRICES ARE DRIVEN BY TIGHT SUPPLY, AN EXPECTED INDIA UREA TENDER AND GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST PLUS CONTINUED ABSENCE OF CHINA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET
-PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE RISING WITH MAP IN BRAZIL SOON BREACHING USD 700 ÅMT CFR
-POTASH PRICE IN BRAZIL EXPECTED TO GO UP DUE TO THE LOWEST INVENTORY SINCE 2019
-THE TAMPA MOSAIC – YARA FEBRUARY CONTRACT PRICE UP USD 45 PMT SETTLING AT USD 625 PMT CFR TAMPA
UREA
If the escalation between the US and Iran ends in dropping of bombs in Iran, the global fertilizer industry will be in a dire strait – with the Hormuz strait affected resulting in reduced ammonia, urea and phosphate exports.
Maybe this is why the international FOB urea market is slow. Producers and traders are busy executing the January 2nd NFL urea tender shipments with to date 16 vessels being nominated for a total of 710 KT of which 482 KT for the west coast of India and 231 KT for the east coast leaving 219 KT awaiting nomination. The majority will originate from the Middle East and Russia, with a combined four coming from Vietnam (2x45KT) and Brunei (2x30KT) as per vessel nominations.
On the trading side the Middle East producers are holding firm with no rush to sell but rumours have it that offers are being as high as USD 450 PMT FOB without any interest shown by the producers. BFI of Brunei is rumoured to have sold a couple of smaller parcels for intra-Asia destinations in the USD mid 440s PMT FOB. Egyptian producers are targeting USD 480 PMT FOB, but traders appear to be holding out at USD 470 PMT FOB. Brazil CFR pricing is heard around the range of USD 435-450 PMT CFR subject origin. Iran producers are under the weather and Pardis is the only exporter operating at 50% capacity from an annual production capacity of around 1.1 million MT. Official price is set at USD 430 PMT FOB. The issue with the escalating Iran vs USA conflict could lead to havoc in the Middle East with global urea exports, excluding Iran, is at around 22%. One can only imagine what this could do to both the urea and ammonia prices. US/NOLA, despite freezing and snowy conditions in the Midwest and east coast, appear to be making a comeback on imports although small with March prices equivalent to USD 470 PMT CFR.
China is still holding out on conventional urea exports with only a small parcel sold originating from LINGGU to Colombia on a combo vessel at a price believed to be around USD 420-425 PMT FOB. NK 42-0-5 is emerging as an alternative long haul export item with focus on Brazil where an 11,000 MT parcel was shipped in December. Already NK 42-0-5 has successfully been introduced in SE Asian markets.
The market is predicting that India will emerge with another tender since December sales of urea in the domestic market alone was in excess of 5 million MT! Cumulative imports for the 12-month running will easily exceed 10 million MT, a far cry from the claim of becoming self-sufficient!
In summary, as a cardinal rule, the 1st quarter of any year is when trading activity starts to blossom and with the expectation of India coming into the market Urea consumption in India April – December has reached 31.5 million MT, up 4% year on year. With a potential conflict emerging between Iran and the USA, urea prices are bound to increase, possibly substantially.
PHOSPHATES
In Brazil, there are no fresh MAP spot sales confirmed so far this week with market participants eagerly discussing next movements during the annual FLA conference in Miami.
MAP is reported to be on offer to Brazil as high as $725pt cfr with no acceptance from importers, who point out that positions are unlikely to be taken without greater buying interest emerging inland.
Brazilian farmers are expected to delay purchases again this year despite rising import price offers amid a credit crunch and extremely high interest rates of 15%.
Suppliers argue that significant cost increases, particularly for sulphur, justify higher MAP prices. Sulphur import prices in Brazil are now suggested by some participants to have reached as high as around $550pt cfr.
An overall P2O5 supply shortage in Brazil is arguably creating even more bullish sentiment in the market, although a deferral of buying means that there is currently no liquidity for higher prices.
The latest reported MAP sales to Brazil were concluded at $690pt cfr. Brazil’s MAP import prices entered 2026 up $5pt yr-on-yr and have since jumped an average of roughly $50pt on tight supply pending reports of sales at the higher offer levels.
In Argentina, Ma’aden is understood to have sold 40,000t DAP/MAP for end-February loading to a trader at $695-697pt fob Saudi Arabia. The trader is reportedly planning to sell the product to Argentina, though this has not been fully confirmed.
Delivered price expectations for the DAP/MAP position are pegged at $735-745pt cfr Argentina. Some other reports have suggested offers to the market at $730-750pt cfr this week.
The latest reported DAP/MAP deals to Argentina were concluded at $710pt cfr last week.
However, OCP last week reported the sale of 40,000t MAP for January-February loading to Latin America (excluding Brazil) at $700-720pt fob Morocco. The business implied expectations of a further price rise for Argentina with freights to the region from Morocco likely around $25pt.
LSE group analysts raised their forecast for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production by 6% to 57.9Mt. The upward revision is down to larger-than-expected planted area. Despite lacking rain in key regions, a deterioration in crop conditions has yet to be reported.
In China, there are no fresh DAP/MAP sales from China owing to current export restrictions and preparation for the Chinese spring season.
Latest DAP prices are still pegged indicatively at $680-700pt fob based on possible small-volume sales to nearby markets. While latest India DAP prices reflect no higher than $650-655pt fob, new offers to the market reflect roughly $680-685pt fob China.
As previously reported, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the CPFIA announced on 10 December that the export halt on DAP, MAP, and NPs would be extended until August 2026.
However, DAP/MAP exports from China may resume before this, depending on prices and supply in the country’s domestic market over the coming months and particularly through the key spring application season. DAP/MAP/NPK stocks entered the year higher in China with demand expected to decline in the spring season on high prices due to the sulphur price surge.
In terms of DAP/MAP supply, there are indications that due to the recent surge in costs and low demand, average operating rates have now dipped to roughly 50% from around 55-56% this time last year. This represents a roughly 240,000t decline in monthly DAP/MAP supply from the market.
Prices were anticipated to be stable for January-February given slow spot demand, with steep increases then expected from mid-to-late Q1 into Q3 due to exceptionally tight global supply. Those increases have begun to emerge sooner than expected as the geopolitical outlook has deteriorated.
POTASH
Global potash pricing has continued to remain elevated across regions, despite limited evidence of a broad-based recovery in underlying demand. In Europe, prices remain steady at elevated levels amid thin spot liquidity, with buyers largely reliant on contracts and suppliers showing little appetite to discount. Similarly, US NOLA prices have held flat despite weak demand signals, even after producerled price hikes failed to stimulate buying. In Brazil, MOP prices remained steady but have edged higher based on supplier sentiment, supported by constrained availability and firmer forward indications, even as farmers continue to apply only minimum required volumes. Recent trade data showing lower year on-year imports in 2025 highlights subdued consumption, yet suppliers remain sold out for nearby months and are successfully placing material at higher levels. Discussions at FLA reinforced expectations for further price increases into March–April, suggesting supplier confidence remains intact despite affordability pressures downstream. Southeast Asia has also seen prices hold firm, supported by record import volumes in 2025 and strong historical affordability. Indonesia’s recent Pupuk tender cleared at a higher level than previous awards, providing suppliers with a fresh reference point to defend elevated offers across the region.
Potash spot prices outside Southeast Asia are forecast to rise in the coming quarter due to low stocks in Brazil, which will incentivise imports as new capacity comes online by the end of the year.
AMMONIA
Ammonia markets diverged this week, with the West of Suez side remaining comparatively tight and prices holding firm, while East of Suez stayed well supplied, keeping sentiment soft and buyers largely on the sidelines. The key signal came from Tampa, where Yara and Mosaic settled in February at $625/t CFR, up $40/t from January. Supply concerns persist in the US Gulf, with GCA expected to be down for a couple of weeks and Woodside’s Beaumont February line-up still unclear. Additionally, Henry Hub volatility could entice producers to resell LNG instead of directing this to nitrogen production.
East of Suez remained long. In the Middle East, improving availability as Ma’aden's ramp up and Sabic's return to the market have begun to weigh on the spot, with sources hearing a correction down towards $500/t FOB. Some participants expect further downside against softer demand in India and the Far East.
The market is likely to remain split. West of Suez should stay supported on tight supply, while the East should remain stable-to-soft as Middle East availability improves.
INSIGHT
According to Chinese Customs Data the following highlights on the China 2025 fertilizer industry:
– For the full year China’s cumulative fertilizer exports reached 46.27 million metric tons marking an increase year on year of 44%.
– Over the same year the cumulative export value rose to USD 13.755 billion, up 57.9% year on year. This represents an arithmetic value per metric ton of close to USD 300.
– In terms of product categories, cumulative urea export surged to 4.89 million metric tons representing a sharp increase of 1,778.1%. In perspective, however, in the 2012/2013 twelve month running period urea exports reached 16 million MT!
– Ammonium sulphate exports reached 21.36 million metric tons, up 24.7% year on year. A major reason for this surge is affordability on the part of importing countries like Brazil choosing ammonium sulphate over urea.
– In contrast, DAP exports declined to 3.48 million metric tons, down 23% year on year, whilst MAP exports reached 1.88 million metric tons, down 6.3% year on year.
– On the import side, cumulative MOP imports reached 12.61 million MT, a slight year on year decrease of 0.1%.
– Imports of NPK compound fertilizers reached 1.17 million MT, down 4.5% year on year.
China Domestic: Market analysis for today.
The impact of short-term storage capacity announcements on sentiment has been noticeable, and the current price level is relatively high. As a result, market transaction activity is limited. Industry is currently cautious, with some agricultural activities taking place moderately. Short-term manufacturers are experiencing little pressure in terms of shipments, with prices still holding firm and slightly increasing. However, since we are still in the period of collecting orders for the Spring Festival, it is possible that prices could adjust next week.
China domestic market : Announcement: From late January to early February, some state reserve enterprises will release approximately 10% of their urea reserves. Zhongmei’s local storage facilities will release large-sized, affordable urea.
Fertilizer Industry China Morning Briefing – January 30, 2026
❤ Urea: Yesterday, factory quotations in the main regions continued to rise. In some areas, prices were gradually approaching the price cap. However, the market lacked sustained positive news to stimulate activity. While traders did have speculators following suit, overall market enthusiasm for buying increased gradually. Downstream users became more cautious in their stockpiling efforts. Considering the support from pending orders, the market will likely remain cautious in the short term.
❤Synthesis of Ammonia: Yesterday, the market for synthesis of ammonia showed weakness in terms of supply and demand. The supply remained abundant, while demand did not show any significant improvement in the short term. Market interactions were strong, with new lows continually being recorded. Downstream acceptance sentiment was cautious, with a focus primarily on meeting basic needs. Attention was paid to changes in the surrounding supply and demand environment. It is possible that there may be sporadic small increases in the Hubei region in the short term, while other regions’ ammonia producers are expected to face downward pressure.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The market for ammonium sulfate experienced some price increases yesterday. The domestic supply and demand situation remained stable. The high price of caesium-grade ammonium sulfate provided support, and the bidding atmosphere for coke-grade ammonium sulfate in recent times has been relatively positive. However, considering the limited acceptance by end-users, purchasing sentiment may become cautious. It is anticipated that the market for ammonium sulfate will remain strong in the short term.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride remained stable over the past day. The supply of compound fertilizers has been slow to decrease, and some companies’ inventory has risen. There is limited enthusiasm for replenishing stocks of ammonium chloride. Companies primarily focus on collecting orders and shipping products before the holiday. Currently, prices are mostly stable, and there has been little change in short-term supply and demand. The price of ammonium chloride remains steady.
❤Melamine: The domestic melamine market remained stable yesterday. The raw material urea market was strong, and coupled with ample orders pending for some companies, the pressure on receiving orders was manageable. Companies may continue to prioritize order collection in the short term, and there is a high probability that prices will remain stable.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic market price of potassium chloride remained relatively stable. The availability of available stock in the market remained limited. New monthly orders for border trade have been signed, with prices continuing to rise by 4 USD/ton compared to January. The volume of contracts signed was relatively low. Sulfate potassium maintained its previous stable state, with plant operating rates still relatively low.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate showed stable trends yesterday. The main production line in Hubei, with a 55% powder grade, maintained prices around 3,850 yuan/ton, with negotiations ongoing for transactions. The raw material sulfur continued to decline, but costs remained high, and sulfur-based acid production companies remained in a loss-making situation. Additionally, supported by pending orders, market sentiment remained strong, ensuring continued stable operations in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market remained stable and cautious yesterday. Although the raw material prices have declined, the cost support remains strong. The factory price of 64% in Hubei Province ranges from 4,100 to 4,150 yuan/ton. Actual transactions are being negotiated, and demand follow-up is relatively limited. Downstream operations continue to follow a pattern of purchasing only as needed, and the market is expected to remain stable in the short term.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic compound fertilizer market was largely观望-oriented yesterday. As urea and localized sulfuric acid prices rose, the cost of sulfur-based fertilizers was under pressure, with some companies expressing interest in further price increases. However, the market continued to focus on processing earlier orders, with new orders likely to be limited. It is expected that the short-term compound fertilizer market will experience moderate, tentative adjustments.
[Urea] On January 29, the industry produced 211,100 tons of urea per day, maintaining the same level as the previous working day; this represents an increase of 16,300 tons compared to the same period last year. The current utilization rate is 89.66%, up by 2.65% from 87.01% last year.