Market analysis for today.
The current domestic urea market situation remains unchanged. Most companies have reached their guidance prices, resulting in temporary stability. Although the market sentiment appears positive, there has been little noticeable price increase due to the stability of company prices and the impact on merchants’ sales. Based on fundamental factors, the current market trend is expected to persist for one to ten more days, during which the primary focus will be on changes in sentiment.
For export, now indication levels at about 660-690fob for prills and 680-700fob for granulars. No more quotas, so just offers follow the rocket up worldwide level increased together. CNFIA have a meeting this week and heard the quotas for 2026 will not earlier than May, all need wait the domestic spring demand finished first. Many of players are still worry about the keep higher worldwide level will delay the new export quota.
China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief (March 11, 2026)
❤ Urea
Yesterday, urea manufacturers' quotes were primarily stable. The impact of recent news has cooled, and the market has returned to a rational range. Momentum for chasing higher prices has weakened, and traders are showing an increased willingness to ship. However, considering that factories in mainstream regions still have sufficient pending orders for the short term, quotes remain relatively firm. High-price transactions have slowed down, and the overall trend is moving toward stable operation.
❤ Melamine
The melamine market continued its upward trend yesterday. Most enterprises are controlling new orders or have suspended sales, leading to a general tightening of supply. Short-term supply and demand fundamentals provide clear support, and the "buy-up" atmosphere is strong. Market activity is rising, and the market is expected to continue improving.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia
The synthetic ammonia market saw an overall upward trend yesterday, with the trading center moving significantly higher. Following an auction-driven rally, northern markets are expected to enter a phase of digesting gains at high levels. In the south, prices remain firm due to maintenance and reduced output. With multi-regional linkage driving prices up, the overall atmosphere is positive, characterized mostly by stable prices with catch-up increases.
❤ Ammonium Chloride
The domestic ammonium chloride market maintained its firm trend yesterday. Most Hou process (dual-process) enterprises are temporarily not accepting new orders, showing a strong inclination to hold back stock for higher prices. Downstream manufacturers currently have a high buying interest, and high-level transactions are constantly appearing. With tightening supply and robust demand, there is still room for prices to rise.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate
The ammonium sulfate market continued to climb yesterday. High international urea prices stimulated sentiment in ammonium sulfate auctions, pushing prices tentatively higher. However, due to the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East, a cautious "wait-and-see" approach at high price levels is increasing. The market is expected to remain firm but cautious in the short term.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer
MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate): Influenced by high raw material costs, many producers still have no official quotes and have stopped taking orders. Traders are pushing up quotes while holding back stock. The trading center has shifted slightly upward with decent inquiry activity. Downstream buyers are sticking to "as-needed" purchasing. The market is expected to remain high and firm with upward movement in the short term.
DAP (Diammonium Phosphate): The DAP market operated on the stronger side yesterday. Raw material costs remain high, and enterprises are focused on shipping existing pending orders. Spot supply in the market remains tight. Downstream demand is following a "rigid need" pattern, and market sentiment remains firm.
❤ Potash
The domestic potash market remains steady and firm. MOP (Muriate of Potash) prices are temporarily stable, while SOP (Potassium Sulfate) prices have edged up. With continuous supply arriving, downstream factories are cautious about MOP procurement, focusing on as-needed inquiries. The ex-factory price for Mannheim SOP (52% powder) is mostly between 3200–3380 RMB/ton, with specific deals negotiated individually.
❤ Compound Fertilizer
The domestic compound fertilizer market continued its upward trend yesterday. Currently, the mainstream ex-factory price for 45%S (3*15) is referenced at 3200–3380 RMB/ton. High raw material prices are creating cost pressure, providing price support for enterprises. Additionally, current shipments are steady and demand release is stable. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term; keep an eye on summer pre-orders and raw material fluctuations.
Morning. Int'l paper saw further pressure on Apr Brazil y'day as $641cfr traded (-$16 from last done Monday), while Apr AG values in contrast moved $5 higher to trade $680. In Nola, Mar phys prices adjusted lower after $615-$605 seen day prior, as Mar/Apr paper traded in $585-$595 range. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $625//$680
Apr $670//$685 – traded $675 (2.5k), $680
May $570//$660
Cfr Brazil
Mar $620//$650
Apr $632//$645 – traded $641
May $525//$592
Egypt
Mar $630//$670
Apr $670//$720
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $595. Mar $591
Paper:
Mar $585//$595 – traded $585, $590
Apr $575//$590 – traded $595, $590
May $530//$560 – traded $540
Brazil Amsul
Mar $235//$265
UAN Nola
Apr $405//$415
May $395//$415
DAP Nola
Mar $640//$660
Apr $640//$655
MAP Brazil
Mar $765/$800
Apr $770//$820
Today SOCAR had announced the tender per sales of Azerbaijan origin Granular Urea Grade-B with the delivery period during SH March, 2026-FH April, 2026.
In the tender were mentioned 30,000 (thirty thousand) metric tons in bulk and/or in big bags +/- 10% in Seller’s option (In one or multiple lots. Subject to the further confirmation by the Seller) on FOB Batumi, Georgia basis and on FOB Trabzon, Türkiye basis.
Tender will be closed on 13 March, 2026.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Wednesday, 11 March 2026
Nola urea values eased slightly today with March trading down to around $590/st fob after several late deals at $605–610/st. Spring demand has yet to fully emerge with buyers focused on clearing earlier purchases. International markets remain sharply higher, with North African prices reaching $700–732 fob. The wide gap between US and offshore replacement values continues to drive volatility across nitrogen markets. Urea derivatives traded 680 for Arab Gulf April and 641 for Brazil April.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 562.5 (+68.5)
– Mar: $640 / $670 →
– Apr: $670 / $690 →
– May: $580 / $680 ↑
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 585 (+96)
– Mar: $650 / $720 →
– Apr: $650 / $720 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 540 (+62.5)
– Mar: $610 / $630 →
– Apr: $630 / $650 ↑
– May: $540 / $630 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 237.5 (+19.5)
– Mar: $240 / $250 →
– Apr: $230 / $250 →
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 735 (+10)
– Mar: $740 / $760 →
– Apr: $750 / $800 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 580 / 600 →
– Apr: 585 / 590 ↑
– May: 530 / 560 ↑
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Apr: 640 / 655 →
– May: 630 / 650 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 380 / 400 →
– Apr: 405 / 415 →
– May: 405 / 415 →
Direct Hedge – Atualização Diária do Mercado de Fertilizantes
Terça-feira, 10 de março de 2026
Os mercados permanecem extremamente voláteis à medida que o conflito no Oriente Médio continua a interromper o transporte marítimo pelo Estreito de Ormuz e elevar os preços do petróleo. Produtores egípcios continuam recebendo interesse comprador, com a Alexfert vendendo 5.000t para abril a US$675 FOB e bids reportados um pouco acima desse nível. Declarações de força maior de fornecedores do Oriente Médio no tender de fevereiro da Índia aumentaram a incerteza sobre a demanda futura de importação. Produtores nigerianos também estão vendo forte interesse para abril com bids no alto dos US$600 FOB. Derivativos de ureia negociaram entre 657–680 para abril no contrato brasileiro.
Derivativos/Papel
Mercados Internacionais
Ureia Golfo Árabe (FOB) – último índice 562,5 (+68,5)
– Mar: US$640 / US$670 →
– Abr: US$680 / US$750 ↑
– Mai: US$580 / US$700 ↑
Ureia Egito (FOB) – último índice 585 (+96)
– Mar: US$650 / US$720 →
– Abr: US$650 / US$720 →
Brasil
Ureia Brasil (CFR) – último índice 540 (+62,5)
– Mar: US$610 / US$630 →
– Abr: US$650 / US$680 ↑
– Mai: US$540 / US$630 ↑
Sulfato de Amônio Brasil (CFR) – último índice 237,5 (+19,5)
– Mar: US$240 / US$250 →
– Abr: US$230 / US$250 →
MAP Brasil (CFR) – último índice 735 (+10)
– Mar: US$740 / US$760 ↑
– Abr: US$750 / US$800 ↑
Mercados EUA (NOLA)
Ureia NOLA (papel)
– Mar: 580 / 600 →
– Abr: 575 / 595 →
– Mai: 525 / 540 ↑
DAP NOLA (papel)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Abr: 640 / 655 →
– Mai: 630 / 650 →
UAN NOLA (papel)
– Mar: 380 / 400 →
– Abr: 405 / 415 →
– Mai: 405 / 415 →
Físico: Se tiver interesse em fertilizantes físicos, contacte-nos.
Trabalhando atualmente: Urea & Sulfato
The dollar took another leg higher on Monday, jumping to a three-month peak on the euro as oil surged past $100 a barrel, stocks slid and investors headed for safety as protracted war in the Middle East threatened to disrupt global energy supplies.
The dollar was up 0.8% to $1.1525 on the euro , its highest since November, and rose almost 0.4% to 158.48 yen early in the Asia session.
Sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell by more than 0.6% on the dollar, while Brent and U.S. crude futures shot to more than $108 a barrel, which is expensive enough to make a dent in global growth.
"Oil remains the transmission channel into inflation expectations, rates and currency markets, with the dollar’s resurgence echoing the 2022 energy crisis," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.
"The week ahead will test whether markets continue to treat the current conflict as a contained shock or begin to price a more durable supply disruption." The dollar, which notched its sharpest one-week rise in 15 months on the breakout of war last week, has been the most effective safe haven asset for investors as gold has faltered amid broad selling in anything that has lately made sharp gains.
"The dollar benefits from its twin status as a safe-haven and energy exporter," said Joe Capurso, Head of Foreign Exchange, International and Geoeconomics at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.
"We expect the Iran-U.S. war to escalate before it de-escalates. Iran is incentivised to strike back to gain leverage in future negotiations to end the war. The US and Israel are incentivised to degrade Iran’s offensive capabilities." The Australian dollar was down 0.7% to $0.6983 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.6% to $0.5860. Sterling slid nearly 0.8% to $1.3324, while the dollar even gained 0.5% on its fellow safe haven in the Swiss franc .
Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader, signaling hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into battle with the United States and Israel.
The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.
Qatar's energy minister told the Financial Times on Friday he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel.
High energy prices act like a tax and can also stoke inflation, leaving investors worried that central bankers may be reluctant to cut interest rates.
Surprisingly weak U.S. jobs data had on Friday briefly stalled dollar gains, and raised expectations for U.S. rate cuts, but that faded somewhat on Monday morning and U.S. stock futures tumbled, too, with S&P 500 futures down 1.6%.
Gu Zongqin, Chairman of the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association: It is hoped that the urea plant will prioritize the greater good. Currently, obtaining an export quota is difficult. The plant’s desire to increase its export volume is even more challenging, and apparent improvements are harder to measure. The plant needs to proactively adjust prices, but policy restrictions are stringent. It is hoped that price stability and supply security can be maintained. (The language is very stern.)
"
Over the past two weeks, the global fertilizer complex has repriced significantly following the escalation of the US/Israel–Iran conflict and disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, while the published DAP CFR SEA range has remained largely unchanged, mainly because of limited spot conclusions in this corridor. This appears to understate current replacement values into Southeast Asia and may not give downstream buyers an accurate picture of prevailing market risks.
Key points:
1. Nitrogen spike and nutrient parity
– Urea has increased by more than $200/MT in a single week, driven by war‑related supply disruption, higher freight and insurance premia.
– DAP, as a combined phosphate and nitrogen product (46% min P₂O₅ and 18% min N), would logically be expected to move at least in line with, or at a premium to, urea on a per‑nutrient basis when nitrogen prices are repricing on geopolitical shocks.
– If Middle East nitrogen exports remain constrained and urea establishes a higher floor, it is unlikely that DAP/MAP values can stay at pre‑crisis levels without opening significant arbitrage between N and NP products.
2. Raw materials: sulphur and ammonia
– Approximately half of global seaborne sulphur exports originate from the Middle East, where flows are now heavily constrained, with FOB Middle East prices rolled around $520–530/MT and CFR India/China/Indonesia already in the low‑ to mid‑$500s/MT.
– Domestic sulphur prices in China have moved to roughly CNY 4,500/t ex‑works (around $550/MT on a CFR parity basis), while SEA CFR sulphur is assessed slightly above $510/MT.
– Ammonia prices have also shifted higher: Middle East spot from about $490–500/MT to roughly $570–600/MT, North Africa FOB around $650–695/MT, and CFR NW Europe around $700–750/MT.
– Higher sulphur and ammonia costs are compressing DAP/MAP producer margins and are widely cited as a key driver of firmer phosphate sentiment; a flat DAP CFR SEA index does not yet reflect this visible cost inflation.
3. Global DAP/MAP benchmarks
– Brazilian MAP CFR has moved into the mid‑$700s/MT, with discussions already pointing to $760/MT and above as suppliers re‑offer, despite farmer affordability concerns.
– Egyptian DAP tender values have risen materially, with recent bids reported well above previous award levels in the $740–750/MT FOB range.
These developments across Brazil, India, Europe and MENA indicate a generally tightening global phosphate balance, in which SEA is structurally linked rather than insulated.
4. SEA‑linked offers and transactions
– Recent market information around Southeast Asia shows:
– Container offers of lower‑grade 16‑45 DAP into Indonesia at about $749/MT CFR.
– Firm offers for DAP from Ma’aden around $860/MT CFR Thailand for March shipment.
– Powder MAP Grade 50‑10 offers into Malaysia above $800/MT CFR, with buyers actively considering these levels.
– Animal‑feed phosphates transacting at new highs: MCP around $950/MT FOB and MDCP around $900/MT FOB.
– Container business ex‑Vietnam at significantly higher FOB levels:
a. PMAP Grade 60 ex‑Vietnam in the $840s/MT FOB range.
b. DAP Grade 64 ex‑Vietnam in the $880s/MT FOB range.
When these ex‑Vietnam FOB levels are adjusted to CFR SEA using current freight and risk premia, the implied replacement values sit clearly above the last DAP Southeast Asia indication of $730–750/MT CFR and point into the $800s/MT CFR.
5. Cross‑commodity and freight/risk signals
– Potash markets in SEA and Brazil are also firming, with some offers withdrawn or raised as suppliers reassess risk and freight; domestic prices in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are trending higher.
– SOP markets, which depend heavily on Mannheim sulphur, are tightening as Middle East sulphur exports stall, with higher offers and in some cases no‑offer stances from key producers.
– Freight from the Middle East into SEA has risen sharply because of war‑risk insurance and bunker constraints; these premia apply equally to phosphates, sulphur, potash and ammonia and therefore need to be reflected in any CFR SEA phosphate index that aims to represent true replacement cost.
"
India Force Majeure: urea
5 traders. We are told ETG, Ameropa, Indagro, Midgulf and koch. But not able to confirm.
Morning. Amid volatile energy mkts, higher phys sales, and still so much uncertainty in the M.East, Int'l paper Offers were scarce y'day until April Brazil traded $680cfr late on, to then meet selling resistance, and see values slip $20+ thereafter. In Nola, Mar phys traded $615-$605, Apr phys in $605-$610 range. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $655//$680
Apr $656//$715
May $550//$670
Cfr Brazil
Mar $620//$650
Apr $645//$657 – traded $680(2.5k), $665s, $657
May $530//$605
Egypt
Mar $630//$670
Apr $670//$720
Nola
Phys – FH Mar $605; Mar $615, $605; April $605, $608, $606, $610
Paper:
Mar $577//$585
Apr $577//$580
May $490//$515
Options: Mar $605 C traded $4, $5. Apr Nola $550 P traded $20
Brazil Amsul
Mar $235//$265
UAN Nola
Apr $410//$430
May $405//$425
DAP Nola
Mar $645//$655
Apr $645//$665
MAP Brazil
Mar $745/$790
Apr $760//$815
Monday, 09 March 2026 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt: Mopco has traded 6,000t of granular urea at $700/t FOB Damietta for April shipment to a nearby market.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Friday, 6 March 2026
Markets remain highly volatile as the conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt trade flows and energy supply, driving nitrogen prices sharply higher across regions. North African producers have led the rally with FOB values climbing rapidly, while supply constraints linked to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have limited Middle Eastern availability and forced buyers to seek alternative origins. In the US, Nola has remained extremely active with prices rising to levels last seen in 2022 as the market braces for potential shortages of contract cargoes from the Middle East ahead of the spring application season. AG derivatives traded at 650 for April and Brazil at 615 for March.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 562.5 (+68.5)
– Mar: $640 / $650 ↑
– Apr: $640 / $660 ↑
– May: $580 / $640 ↑
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 585 (+96)
– Mar: $650 / $720 ↑
– Apr: $650 / $720 ↑
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 540 (+62.5)
– Mar: $610 / $620 ↑
– Apr: $600 / $630 ↑
– May: $580 / $620 ↑
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 237.5 (+19.5)
– Mar: $240 / $250 ↑
– Apr: $230 / $250 ↑
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 735 (+10)
– Mar: $730 / $750 →
– Apr: $730 / $750 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 580 / 600 ↑
– Apr: 570 / 585 ↑
– May: 500 / 520 ↑
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Apr: 640 / 655 →
– May: 630 / 650 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 380 / 400 →
– Apr: 405 / 415 ↑
– May: n/a / n/a →
China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief for March 9, 2026. It provides a snapshot of the Chinese domestic market trends across various fertilizer sectors.
Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief (2026-03-09)
❤ Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market experienced volatile consolidation. Early in the week, mainstream corporate quotes rose near guidance prices, leading to cautious buying from downstream sectors and a lack of sustained replenishment momentum. Combined with factors like the gradual release of reserve fertilizers and shifting market sentiment, the market trended from strong to stable before gradually softening. The short-term market is expected to remain in a state of stalemate and consolidation.
❤ Melamine: The domestic melamine market trended upward last week. Most companies face no immediate sales pressure, and pre-sale orders are concentrated. Supply side tightness is expected to persist in the short term, which will likely support further market gains. However, attention should be paid to the resumption of production at idled facilities and the willingness of downstream users to accept current price levels.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, the supply-and-demand atmosphere for synthetic ammonia was mixed, with prices fluctuating unevenly. Supply in the North remains abundant while downstream demand is weak; high-priced ammonia producers continue to focus on destocking and shipping. In the South, support from port arrivals and improved order intake has kept local prices steady, though overall gains are limited. Short-term expectations are for stable pricing with a "wait-and-see" approach and flexible regional adjustments.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Trading activity in the domestic ammonium chloride market remained active last week. As compound fertilizer companies resumed and increased production, rigid demand for ammonium chloride expanded. Traders showed a strong "buy-on-the-rise" mentality, with some soda ash enterprises continuing to hike offer prices. Most producers are reluctant to sell and are controlling order volumes. Given current robust demand, the market continues to operate with a strong bias.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: The ammonium sulfate market rose sharply last week. Influenced by political conflicts in the Middle East, international urea prices remained high, benefiting the ammonium sulfate market. On the other hand, domestic supply remains tight, and manufacturers continue to hold prices firm. However, as prices have been pushed higher, industry players have become more risk-averse; the short-term market is expected to maintain firm pricing while observing the situation in the Middle East.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): The domestic MAP market trended firmly upward last week. Raw material costs continued to rise, increasing cost pressure. Manufacturers stopped quoting or selling as market supply tightened, and traders shifted their focus toward higher prices. Downstream buying remains on a need-only basis as low-end supply has disappeared. It is expected to maintain a firm run in the short term.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): The domestic DAP market saw stable consolidation last week. Raw material prices continued to climb, providing strong cost support. Companies are focused on shipping existing backorders. Demand follow-up is slow, with downstream buyers maintaining a "purchase-as-needed" strategy. The market is expected to maintain a consolidation trend in the short term.
❤ Potash: The domestic potash market showed a mixed trend last week. Due to continuous supply and releases, Potassium Chloride (MOP) prices in Northern markets dropped significantly. However, under cost pressure, Potassium Sulfate (SOP) produced via the Mannheim process saw a slight price increase, though most enterprises are still operating at a loss (selling price lower than production cost).
❤ Compound Fertilizer: The domestic compound fertilizer market remained at high levels with an upward trend last week. Both upstream raw material costs and downstream demand released positive signals, improving market atmosphere. Companies have raised their quotes, with the mainstream ex-factory price for 45%S (3*15) referencing 3,180–3,350 RMB/ton. As rigid demand is released and goods move faster downstream, compound fertilizers will continue high-level consolidation in the short term.