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You’ve read plenty about how the Middle East conflict could force phosphate fertilizer producers to curtail operations due to affordability issues, but truth be told, we have not reached that crisis point yet. Instead, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗰 𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝘄.

Key phosphate producing countries outside the Middle East have just enough stocks to last quite some weeks. Many also have well-established logistics to move sulphur to their consuming sites, so the challenge is relatively straightforward for them – find the damn tonnes.

It is far more complex for DRC consumers, who are 2,300km away from Dar es Salaam, the busiest import point in Southern Africa.

The fear among sulphur buyers in the DRC is legitimate.

At current consumption levels, which remain healthy and supported by copper economics, a sulphur shortage is approaching fast.

Acuity Commodities know the monthly consumption of the DRC. I plotted that against imports into the region over the first three months of the year, as well as port stocks that I review every month. The picture suggests sulphur stocks will last less than two months.

It becomes problematic when around 90% of the region’s sulphur supply is sourced from the Middle East.

Our last spot sulphur assessment of $1,120-1,150/t DAP Kolwezi on March 10 showed a 21% week-on-week increase. That is a direct reflection of panic buying.

If you were a trader holding much-needed stock right now, you would also be asking for a higher price, no?

More ships need to arrive to keep the sulphur supply chain moving in Southern Africa. I fully expect sulphur from non-traditional sources to enter the market. Routes may be untested, product quality may differ from what buyers typically accept, and freight costs could be high – but the risk profile for traders may now look more acceptable than before.

If a truck is loaded today from Dar es Salaam to Kolwezi, transit alone takes around three weeks. Once sulphur stocks at a DRC buyer level fall, if they are not replenished quickly, it will take weeks before inventories can be rebuilt.

Oh, and add rising fuel prices to the equation…

I will leave you to digest that.

US DAP/MAP market shielded from Middle East crisis for now –

The US market is largely on an island of its own just now, with Nola DAP/MAP prices dipping this week as global values surge higher on the Middle East conflict. While tariffs and duties in recent years had often pushed US import prices to the highest in the world, latest US DAP import prices reflect as low as $685pt cfr, over $100pt below DAP offers east of Suez, as much as $130pt below Latin American DAP prices, and at least $160pt below DAP prices for Europe.

It’s easy to look at the fact that 35% of average US yearly DAP/MAP/TSP imports from 2023-2025 came from Saudi Arabia and fear the worst. However, the current price disparity is largely a quirk of timing. In Q2 last year, the US only imported 250,000t DAP/MAP/TSP, including just 88,000t from Saudi Arabia, providing an effective shield from the global supply issue through until purchasing builds for the fall season entering Q3.

Just one limited volume DAP cargo planned for the US from Saudi Arabia is amongst the phosphate fertilizer vessels caught in the Arabian Gulf after seven DAP vessels shipped for Q1 arrival from Saudi Arabia between December and the crisis beginning on 28 February.

While roughly 800,000t DAP/MAP/TSP/NP was lined up for January-April 2026 arrival to the US market, this has now been cut to roughly 750,000t availability due to likely re-exports by traders to higher priced global markets, particularly Latin America. This compares with roughly 1.0Mt imported in the same period 2025.

While this looks like a notable availability cut, stocks and domestic production have likely bridged the supply gap for spring. US P2O5 stocks at the end of the calendar Q4 were seen at 537,000st, according to latest TFI data, up 37% yr-on-yr. DAP/MAP stocks alone entering 2026 were reported up 45% yr-on-yr.

P2O5 production in the US for calendar Q4 reached 1.57Mst, up 13% yr-on-yr, with DAP/MAP production in the same period up 19%. Mosaic recently indicated that after weak Q4 sales and surging inventories it is targeting higher 2026 production and Q1 sales volumes of roughly 1.8Mt, up from 1.5Mt in Q1 2025. The result is largely flat availability for the US spring season yr-on-yr despite the expected dip in imports.

Spring demand from the US also remains a question mark. Latest TFI data showed a 4.7% drop in P2O5 demand in Q4 2025 to 1.39Mst while DAP/MAP demand slumped 15%. While affordability has drastically improved for US farmers since the fall season, the US DAP/corn ratio is currently 9% weaker than this time last year which may still hit demand in Q2.
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Morning. With no sign of de-escalation in M.East, oil mkts firming up once again, and rumours of India's imminent return, April AG & Brazil Urea paper jumped $50+/- from last traded levels y;day, while Apr/Mar Nola barges traded up to mid/high-$620s (+$15+/-). On Phosphates, DAP Nola also saw gains w/ April trading 635-$650. Mkts framed:

AG weekly index = $700, Mar Avg =$631.25
Mar $640//$680
Apr $720//$750 – traded $725, $730
May $600//$650

Cfr Brazil weekly index = $667.50, Mar Avg = $603.75
Mar $625//$660
Apr $665//$710 – traded $685
May $580//$620

Egypt weekly index = $687.50, Mar Avg = $636.25
Mar $650//$690
Apr $710//$770

Nola
Phys: Mar $623, $625, $628. Apr $618. FH Apr $620, $625. Fh May $600, $605
Paper:
Mar $600//$615
Apr $620//$630 – traded $625, $630
May $585//$610 – traded $590, $600
Jun $515//$575

Brazil AS weekly index = $260, Mar Avg = $248.50
Mar $245//$275

UAN Nola weekly index = $410, Mar Avg = $388.75
Mar $395//$410 – traded $400
Apr $415//$425
May $410//$425

DAP Nola weekly index = $627.50, Mar Avg = $633.75
Mar $640//$660
Apr $647//$655 – traded $635, $645, $650

MAP Brazil weekly index = $795, Mar Avg = $765
Mar $765/$800
Apr $790//$830
May $775//$825

KuibyshevAzot – 11 March 2026 – A large-scale fire broke out at the KuibyshevAzot chemical plant after a series of explosions. The fire engulfed the technological unit of one of the largest enterprises.
"KuibyshevAzot" is one of the leading chemical companies in the Russian Federation and a key producer of caprolactam, and is also among the largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers in the country.
Any serious damage to the infrastructure of this plant could lead to a prolonged shutdown of production lines and significant losses for the Russian chemical sector. According to preliminary data from Astra analysts, the fire engulfed one of the main technological units, which may indicate a drone strike on critical nodes of the enterprise.
Eyewitnesses recorded a large number of explosions, after which the sky over the plant was covered with smoke. Rescue services arrived at the scene, but the fire continues to spread across the industrial site.

This document is an official notice from the Chinese government regarding the release of national fertilizer reserves to support the 2026 spring plowing season. Below is the translation:
National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China
Notice on Organizing the Release of 2025/2026 National Commercial Fertilizer Reserves (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Compound Fertilizers)
To the Development and Reform Commissions and Finance Departments (Bureaus) of relevant provinces, and relevant regulatory bureaus of the Ministry of Finance:
In accordance with the "Management Measures for National Commercial Fertilizer Reserves" (NDRC and Ministry of Finance Order No. 25, 2024), and to respond to the impact of international fluctuations on the domestic fertilizer market while ensuring the fertilizer needs for agricultural production during the spring plowing period, it has been decided to urgently organize the release of the 2025/2026 National Commercial Fertilizer Reserves (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Compound Fertilizers). Relevant matters are notified as follows:
Assessment Period: The month-end inventory level assessment for the 2025/2026 nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserve tasks will conclude at the end of February 2026. Starting from March, inventory data will continue to be monitored but will no longer be subject to assessment, and no further financial subsidies will be provided.
Task Verification: Provided that other assessment requirements are met, the completed quantity of the 2025/2026 reserve tasks shall be determined based on the actual in-stock quantity at the end of February 2026 (not to exceed the assigned reserve task volume).
Market Supply: Please guide relevant contracted enterprises to sell nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer reserves to agricultural users at fair prices. Actively increase supply to the spring plowing market and maintain stable market order. If local hoarding or reluctance to sell is detected, please urge reserve enterprises to release goods to the market as quickly as possible to complete sales.
Furthermore, please ensure diligent supervision and inspection of the reserves within your provinces. Report inspection results and handling suggestions in a timely manner. The performance of these contracted enterprises will be used as a reference factor for future reserve bidding.
It is hereby notified.
Department of Economic Trade, National Development and Reform Commission (Seal)
* Department of Economic Construction, Ministry of Finance (Seal)
March 11, 2026

𝐓𝐓𝐅 𝐠𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 “𝐬𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐬” 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞’𝐬 𝐚𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲

European gas prices are not just an energy story. They also determine whether Europe’s fertilizer plants run or shut down.

In ammonia production (the building block of nitrogen fertilizers), natural gas represents 70–90% of production costs.
Gas consumption for ammonia production:
≈ 28–33 MWh per tonne of NH₃
Which means TTF directly translates into production cost.

𝐆𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
TTF price → gas cost per tonne NH₃
• €25/MWh → ~€700–850/t
• €40/MWh → ~€1,100–1,300/t
• €60/MWh → ~€1,700–2,000/t
• €100/MWh → >€3,000/t

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐓𝐅 “𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬”
Market experience from the 2022 gas crisis provides a clear framework:
TTF level → industry reaction
• €25–30/MWh → European plants competitive
• €35–45/MWh → margins collapse
• €50–60/MWh → first shutdowns / reduced operating rates
• €70–80/MWh → widespread curtailments
• €100+/MWh → majority of plants offline

At the peak of the energy crisis, ~40% of European ammonia capacity was offline.

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬
Europe produces roughly 15–18 Mt of ammonia per year, feeding:
• nitrogen fertilizers
• industrial chemicals
• AdBlue / DEF
• explosives and industrial nitrates

-ALL FERTILIZER PRICES KEEP GOING UP FOR AS LONG AS THE HORMUZ STRAIT REMAINS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO CHINESE EXPORTS OF NITROGEN, EXCEPT FOR AMMONIA, AND WITH PROCESSED PHOSPHATES STILL BEING RESTRICTED

UREA

Global urea prices continued to climb this week, although the rapid increases seen immediately after the Middle East conflict began on 28 February have slowed. The market was generally quieter as buyers considered the availability and high cost of urea. New record prices were set in North Africa and Southeast Asia. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the main factor affecting the market, with more than 530,000 t urea still stuck in the Arabian Gulf, Kpler data showed. West of Suez, North African producers again led the price increases. In Algeria, AOA reportedly sold up to 25,000 t of granular at $734/t FOB for April shipment. This was a $54/t increase from the previous week and the highest price from the region since mid-October 2022. Business in Egypt was much quieter, but prices still increased slightly, with Mopco selling 6,000 t granular at $700/t FOB for April shipment, following an earlier sale by Alexfert at $675/t FOB. In the Americas, the NOLA market ended the week with strong prices but also fluctuated after reaching a new high of $625/st FOB over the weekend. Prices for March and April delivery traded in a wide range of $585-625/st FOB, with more than 40,000 st traded in one day midweek. Price hikes were not as poignant this week, partly because of political comments suggesting the conflict in the Middle East might be ending. Further south in Brazil, the market is in its quiet season, and few solid offers were made. Still, prices were indicated at $650-690/t CFR, with buyers offering $640/t CFR.

In Northern Europe, prices also saw gains. In France, warehouse sales at La Pallice were reported at €660-680/t FCA. Despite the high prices, farmers appear to be continuing with their purchases for the Spring season. Several ships carrying granular from Algeria are scheduled to arrive in both France and the UK. East of Suez, Omani producers, who are not directly affected by the Hormuz closure, saw prices firm significantly. Indications were mostly in the $ 650–$700/t FOB range, with one March-loading offer reported at $715/t FOB. Inside the Gulf, the supply situation remains complex. QatarEnergy’s 5.6 Mt/year Mesaieed plant is still not operating, and it is unclear whether GPIC’s plant in Bahrain is operating. The logistical pressures were highlighted by a freight enquiry to load 20,000 t from the western Saudi port of Jeddah for a March shipment to Tanzania. This would require producer Sabic to move the product by truck nearly 1,500 km from its plant in Jubail. High prices have continued across Asia. Vietnam’s Ca Mau reportedly sold 40,000 t granular at $700/t FOB for April shipment, with the cargo apparently earmarked for Australia. After selling at $650/t FOB last week, Malaysia’s Petronas is now understood to be aiming for a high price of $750/t FOB for its next April sales. The delivery of 450,000-500,000 t urea from India's last purchase is now uncertain after several ship owners declared force majeure on shipments from the Middle East. With India’s own production also limited by cuts to natural gas supplies, the government is looking for alternative sources before announcing a new purchase request. However, reports suggest that Indian Potash Limited (IPL) may soon announce a new 1.5 Mt purchase request, likely pushing global prices even higher.

Prices should remain firm on supply uncertainty, with a potential India tender likely to reinforce global support.

PHOSPHATES

Several global price benchmarks for phosphate fertilizers spiked this week, and some reached their highest levels since 2022, as the conflict in the Middle East further tightened a market already facing an exceptionally tight supply outlook. The December news that China will temporarily halt DAP, MAP, and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market and led suppliers to increase offers. The ongoing conflict makes an earlier return by Chinese exporters less likely, as domestic prices are kept higher by high raw material costs, and threatens supply from key origin Saudi Arabia, further increasing costs and reducing the supply of raw materials for producers across the globe. Spot prices for MAP cargoes to Brazil were assessed at $785-800/t CFR, up from $740-760/t, a 25% year-to-date increase of $158/t and the highest level since September 2022. Concerns over scarce supply are offsetting affordability concerns for now, though some demand destruction is expected. Brazil's TSP and SSP prices also firmed this week. The European DAP assessment jumped, with prices assessed at $915-925/t FCA Terneuzen/Ghent, up from $810-830/t, the highest level since October 2022. Again, some demand destruction is widely expected at these levels. DAP business in India remained limited as importers await clearer signals on government policy and support. The published spot assessment increased to $750-770/t CFR from $705-710/t on an indicative basis, though forward sales to traders for April loading were reported at $790-800/t CFR. The only region where prices moved downwards was North America, with a range of US assessments, including the NOLA DAP and MAP barge assessments, declining this week. Market participants are concerned that the low affordability of phosphates relative to downstream agricultural commodities will lead to demand destruction. Still, as the majority of the US's DAP and MAP imports come from Saudi Arabia, which may have trouble exporting due to conflict in the Middle East, some players are likely to be concerned about supply.

Given China's severe export restrictions, prices were already expected to climb even higher than 2025's peaks. The conflict in the Middle East is set to tighten the market further and push prices even higher over the coming weeks and months.

POTASH

Global potash markets remained broadly stable this week despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, although underlying market signals point to firmer logistics costs and rising delivered-price risk across key trade routes. In Brazil, MOP prices increased for a second consecutive week to $375-385/t CFR, up from $370–380/t CFR last week, supported by confirmed transactions at the upper end of the range. Continued Russian sales into Brazil at around $385t CFR, combined with additional March-April cargoes concluded at $380–385/t CFR, suggest that supplier confidence has strengthened. Canadian offers have also moved higher, with material now indicated at around $390/t CFR and at least one reported sale for end-March loading. Cargill suspended soybean exports from Brazil to China due to a new set of inspection procedures, according to comments from Cargill’s Brazil president Paulo Sousa. This could lead to a short-term increase in soybean prices. Currently, the Brazilian market remains the clearest source of upward momentum in the global potash market, which has otherwise been rather stable. In Southeast Asia, prices remained stable, with standard MOP assessed at $360–390/t CFR and granular MOP at $390–410/t CFR, despite Middle East tensions. A Canadian granular cargo to Thailand was reportedly concluded at above $380/t CFR, indicating that suppliers are beginning to pass through higher freight and insurance costs. Market participants reported that logistics-related costs have increased by $5–15/t CFR, which may support firmer offers going forward. However, weak January import data across Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines indicates that underlying demand remains soft. On the other hand, stronger palm oil prices may improve affordability for plantation buyers and help prevent downside pressure in the near term. Malaysian palm oil inventories declined for the second consecutive month in February, according to the latest supply and demand data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board 10 March. The crude palm oil reference price for April has been set at MYR3,935.19/t, up from MYR3,896.09/t in March. Indonesian palm oil production is forecast to grow by less than 5% in 2026, according to comments from M., the secretary general of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki). Hadi Sugeng Wahyudiono, on 12 March. Production growth is expected to be limited to 1-2% due to the potential onset of the El Niño weather pattern by mid-year. In Northwest Europe, MOP prices remained broadly stable at €325–345/t CIF for standard product and €350–370/t CIF for granular grades, amid subdued demand and thin trading activity. Ice-related logistical disruptions in the Baltic have pushed freight costs higher, but these have not yet materially tightened supply, with the market still described as amply supplied overall. US NOLA prices remain stagnant due to limited activity, and India remains undecided on 2026 contract negotiations. Talks on settling the contract have been pushed to April due to surging nitrogen and phosphate prices, which could trim farmer budgets and lead to less appetite for potash in the short term. Overall, potash prices remain firm, with the main upside risk stemming from higher freight and insurance costs. That said, any broader rally is still constrained by cautious buyer behaviour, and as potash remains one of the more affordable nutrients relative to nitrogen and phosphates.

MOP prices in most regions face downside risk, as farmers may trim budgets and prefer to buy urea and phosphates amid rising prices driven by Middle East tensions.

AMMONIA

The market remains dominated by the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure. Theoretical indications this week ranged from anywhere between $550-600/t FOB to as high as $650690/t FOB for the Middle East, but there is little meaningful way to test where a truly tradeable level would land, as liquidity remains absent. Players note the market is being shaped less by fundamentals and more by logistics risk, particularly around freight and insurance. A number of ships remain idle both inside and outside the Strait, waiting on further instructions from charterers. A clear knock-on is seen in Southeast Asia, where offers moved higher this week as buyers in India and East Asia turned to the region for prompt alternatives to disrupted Middle East supply. April availability is tightening quickly, with Southeast Asian cargoes reportedly selling out fast. The outlook is also becoming more restrictive further ahead, with PT ESSA in Indonesia announcing a turnaround in 2026 Q2 and Petronas expected to shut for maintenance in April, reducing flexibility at a time when non-Gulf tonnes are becoming more sought after. East Asia is notably exposed to any prolonged Middle East supply loss. Saudi Arabia accounted for around 40% of South Korea’s 2025 imports and about 37% of Taiwan, China’s, leaving both markets vulnerable if Gulf exports remain trapped. Values moved higher to around $500-540/t CFR this week and are expected to trend higher in the coming weeks. While term arrivals are still keeping the market covered in the short term, one player noted the region is becoming increasingly attentive to alternative spot sources. That same dynamic is beginning to show in India. FACT’s 8,000 t tender for April delivery – the first such tender in nearly a year – is a notable sign that tightness is starting to register even while domestic downstream producers remain in a turnaround window through mid-April. India is structurally exposed to Middle Eastern and Iranian supply, and if Hormuz remains shut after maintenance ends, securing prompt cover could become much harder. For now, buyers are still cautious, but the underlying vulnerability is clear. China is re-emerging as a potential swing source in this environment. At least one vessel is already moving Chinese-origin material into South Korea, while there is also talk in India that east coast buyers are exploring Chinese tonnes, although no trades have been confirmed at the time of writing. West of Suez was comparatively quieter this week, with most benchmarks broadly steady rather than sharply higher. No fresh business was heard above last week’s Fertiglobe sale of 15,000 t at $750/t CFR. Vessel activity showed a continued flow of Algerian tonnes into Europe. Algerian offer levels are holding firm at $650/t FOB and above, and sellers appear in no rush to commit volumes amid expectations of further upside.

Global ammonia benchmarks are poised to edge higher should the Strait of Hormuz remain shut and Middle East supply locked up.

China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief (2026-03-13)
❤ Urea
Yesterday, some domestic urea enterprises saw decent transaction volumes. Due to shifting market sentiment, downstream procurement interest improved, leading to an increase in orders for some factories in mainstream regions. However, overall market trading is gradually becoming more cautious, and market prices are expected to remain stable for the time being.
❤ Melamine
The domestic melamine market continued its upward trend yesterday, with scattered enterprises raising prices by 100–200 yuan/ton. Although supply is expected to rise in the short term, most enterprises have accumulated backlogs of pending orders and face no significant sales pressure. With spot supply tightening, most market participants remain bullish; the market is expected to remain firm, with prices mainly seeing slight increases.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia
The synthetic ammonia market continued to run strong yesterday. Regional prices were pushed upward by equipment failures and maintenance support, while steady port collection continued. Some areas followed suit with stable price hikes driven by strong bidding and expectations of reduced supply. Downstream rigid demand remains robust, supporting a steady upward correction in the market.
❤ Ammonium Chloride
The domestic ammonium chloride market operated firmly yesterday. Downstream manufacturers were active in inquiries; however, most combined alkali enterprises are reluctant to sell and have temporarily stopped taking new orders. Spot goods are difficult to find. As previous low-priced orders conclude, the focus of market transactions has shifted significantly upward. With supply expected to tighten, there is still room for ammonium chloride prices to rise.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate
The ammonium sulfate market followed the upward trend from lower levels yesterday. With international urea prices at highs, operator sentiment remains fair. However, as prices are pushed higher, cautious sentiment in the market has increased. Stakeholders are closely watching international nitrogen fertilizer price dynamics.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): The market trend was firm yesterday. Cost pressures continue to increase, making it difficult for factories to set prices, and many remain in a state of suspended ordering. Traders are also reluctant to sell, and available supply remains tight. With downstream replenishment demand still present, the market will maintain a firm, upward trajectory in the short term.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): The market remained at high levels yesterday. Raw material prices fluctuated at high levels, providing strong cost support. Enterprises continue to ship pending orders, and market arrivals are gradually increasing. Demand is following up in an orderly manner with downstream buyers purchasing on an as-needed basis. The market is expected to remain firm in the short term.
❤ Potash
The domestic potash market trend was flat. The volume of Potassium Chloride (MOP) in circulation is limited, but downstream demand is insufficient. Market prices fluctuated slightly, with the price of domestic 60% grade at destination mostly ranging between 3,100–3,250 yuan/ton (negotiable). Domestic Potassium Sulfate (SOP) manufacturers reported stable shipments, with prices maintained at high levels.
❤ Compound Fertilizer
Local prices in the domestic compound fertilizer market nudged upward yesterday. Bolstered by firm performance in raw materials and continuous price increases across most products in the industry chain, bullish sentiment remains undiminished. Shipments are dominated by spring fertilizer replenishment, while pre-orders for summer fertilizer are accelerating. The short-term compound fertilizer market is expected to continue its firm upward movement.

China:
In the past 24 hours, the United States and Israel have continued their bombing campaign against Iran. Trump stated that all the targets (approximately 6,000) that could be attacked have been struck, leaving little else to target. However, the Iranian regime has not been defeated; they not only maintain control over the domestic social situation but also retain some military production capabilities to sustain asymmetric countermeasures.

For example, launching missile attacks on Israel and US military bases from time to time, which the enemy is unable to fully intercept. Additionally, there is the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with the deployment of mines, the launch of suicide drones, and other tactics employed by the Houthi forces that initially caused significant headaches for the US military. These tactics remain effective even now that Iran has adopted them.

Iran has been launching frequent attacks on merchant ships transporting oil in the Gulf region today, and has also used drones to bomb fuel storage tanks at the port of Salalah, causing the port to be shut down. This incident has contributed to today’s rise in oil prices. I searched for the location of Salalah port on a map and was surprised to find that it is situated in southern Oman, over a thousand kilometers away from Iran. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Salalah has become an important alternative logistics node. The shutdown of the port further squeezes the space for global supply chains to navigate around.

Drones are indeed formidable, reshaping the landscape of modern warfare. Their greatest advantage is their affordability, allowing for low-cost saturation attacks. They are perfect for killing, setting fires, and causing destruction. The US military’s defense system still operates under an outdated mindset, with high costs associated with single-time interception, making it unable to adapt to swarm tactics.

The price of Brent crude has once again risen back to $100 per barrel. Even after the IEA announced the release of 300 to 400 million barrels of reserves last night, the price of oil remained unaffected.

Iran has announced three conditions for a ceasefire: 1) recognition of Iran’s legitimate authority (e.g., retention of nuclear capabilities? removal of all sanctions?), 2) compensation by the United States and Israel for war damages, and 3) firm guarantees by the international community to prevent future aggression.

This is a tactic to use oil prices as leverage to compel the US and Israel to surrender. These unrealistic conditions are primarily meant to demonstrate a tough stance, rather than a genuine desire for negotiations. The expectations regarding the timing of a ceasefire by online casinos have been significantly lowered, with the latest probability of ending by March 31 being only 25%, and less than 50% by the end of April. The entire world will have to pay the price; just endure it…

The video shows a conference hall where a speaker is giving a presentation. Below is the translation of the primary slide displayed on the screen and a summary of the speaker's remarks.
Slide Translation
Headline: 2026 Spring Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Situation Analysis Conference
Organizer: China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association
Co-organizers:
Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd.
Hubei Sanning Chemical Co., Ltd.
Chengdu YunTu Technology Holding (Group) Co., Ltd.
Beijing Xinnong Digital Science and Technology Co., Ltd.
Wuhan BoRun Technology Co., Ltd.
Support Units:
Qinhuangdao Wuzhou Industry & Trade Development Co., Ltd.
Shenyang Zhongke New Type Fertilizer Co., Ltd.
Time: March 11–12, 2026
Location: Wuhan, Hubei
Speaker Summary
The speaker is addressing the audience regarding market ethics and regulatory compliance. Key points include:
Market Sentiment: He notes that while some may want to "make more money," the current market conditions and prices are already at a level that should be considered satisfactory.
Warning Against Manipulation: He explicitly warns companies against "secretly collaborating" to manipulate prices or engaging in "small underhanded actions" to restrict supply.
Regulatory Oversight: He reminds the audience that the government is monitoring the situation closely. If the association receives reports of price gouging or supply withholding, it will be reported to higher authorities.
Association's Stance: He emphasizes that the association does not want to see any member enterprise getting "reported, punished, or blacklisted" for failing to follow pricing guidelines. He urges everyone to "treasure their reputation" and maintain market stability.
Would you like more information on the specific companies mentioned as co-organizers or further details on the nitrogen fertilizer market trends for 2026?
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According to information from the 13th Construction Engineering Institute released in March 2026, recently, the synthesis ammonia urea unit of the Yingcheng Xin Du Chemical Engineering Project successfully started operations for the first time.

The synthesis ammonia project for the Yingcheng Xin Du Chemical Salt and Chemical Transformation Green Transition and Product Structure Adjustment Upgrade Project employs water-coal slurry water-cooled wall waste furnace gasification units (Jinhua Furnace 3.0). There are two units in operation and one spare unit. The gasification pressure is 6.5 MPa, and the total gas flow rate is 205,000 m³/h (CO + H2).

The urea plant employs a carbon dioxide stripping process to produce 95% urine, which is then sent to the compound fertilizer and trimethylene process.

The image contains a news article in Chinese regarding maritime security. Here is the translation of the main text:
Headline
Iran allows two Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; a vessel flying the Thai flag was attacked.
Summary
During the Iran-Israel war, there are reports that the Indian oil tankers "Prantik" and "Pari Maru" have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but ships from the United States, Europe, and Israel still face restrictions.
Body Text
New Delhi: After holding talks with the Indian Foreign Minister, Iran has allowed oil tankers flying the Indian flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The move is aimed at maintaining the smooth flow of this key maritime channel to ensure the transport of crude oil and natural gas. According to insiders, the Indian oil tankers "Prantik" and "Pari Maru" have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but ships from the United States, Europe, and Israel still face transit restrictions. ‎<This message was edited>

Morning. Nola buyers stepped in y'day as Mar/Apr barge values firmed $20+/-, trading up to $610-$612 by COB. In turn, Int'l paper saw AG & Brazil bids improve later in the day, after April Brazil initially traded down $3 to $638cfr. Mkts framed:

AG
Mar $630//$675
Apr $675//$690
May $575//$660

Cfr Brazil
Mar $625//$650
Apr $635//$655 – traded $638
May $555//$600

Egypt
Mar $645//$690
Apr $680//$730

Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $590. Mar $590-$610. Apr $600, $602. FH Apr $590, $600, $612
Paper:
Mar $590//$560 – traded $590 (500st)
Apr $597//$607 – traded $595(500st)
May $565//$600 – traded $565

Brazil Amsul
Mar $235//$270

UAN Nola
Apr $410//$420 – traded $410
May $405//$420

DAP Nola
Phys: Prompt traded $628, FH Mar $627
Mar $640//$660
Apr $640//$655

MAP Brazil
Mar $765/$800
Apr $770//$820

Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Thursday, 12 March 2026

Markets remain highly volatile as the blockage of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to limit fresh Middle East exports and keep global nitrogen supply tight. In the US Nola values moved higher and ended the day roughly $20 higher than the day before. March / April Nola barges transacted between $605–612. Brazil derivatives traded at $638 a couple of times for April.

Latest derivative levels

International Markets

Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 562.5 (+68.5)
– Mar: $640 / $670 →
– Apr: $670 / $730 ↑
– May: $600 / $700 ↑

Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 585 (+96)
– Mar: $650 / $720 →
– Apr: $670 / $750 ↑

Brazil

Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 540 (+62.5)
– Mar: $610 / $630 →
– Apr: $635 / $650 ↑
– May: $550 / $650 ↑

Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 237.5 (+19.5)
– Mar: $240 / $250 →
– Apr: $240 / $270 ↑

MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 735 (+10)
– Mar: $740 / $760 →
– Apr: $750 / $800 →

US Markets (NOLA)

NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 590 / 600 ↑
– Apr: 600 / 620 ↑
– May: 570 / 590 ↑

NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 630 / 640 ↓
– Apr: 630 / 650 ↓
– May: 630 / 650 →

NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 380 / 400 →
– Apr: 415 / 420 ↑
– May: 410 / 420 →

A significant development in the situation in Iran over the past 24 hours was the attempt by Iranian naval forces to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Several mine-laying vessels were dispatched for this purpose, but 16 of them were destroyed by American forces.

Once a mine is deployed, it is extremely difficult to remove it, and the efficiency of the party that deploys the mine is higher than that of the party tasked with clearing it. Therefore, once Iran continues to engage in such activities, it will be extremely challenging for merchant ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is well aware that its naval and air forces are no match for the United States and Israel. The damage that missile launches can cause is limited. Now, the biggest card in Iran’s hand is to block the Strait of Hormuz, thereby driving up global oil prices and causing suffering for the economies of the entire world.

Even we, who are far away and merely observing the spectacle, are to some extent paying the price of the war. Rising fuel costs for cars, increased logistics and chemical production costs, all of these have been absorbed into the prices of everyday consumer goods.

Trump threatened to launch a 20-fold attack, but the reality is that approximately 750 cargo ships are currently trapped in the straits and unable to exit, leading to high oil prices and beginning to have a ripple effect on fertilizers. The IEA (International Energy Agency) is discussing releasing 300-400 million barrels of reserves, which has temporarily stabilized oil prices around $90 without causing further volatility.