Market Intelligence Feed

2026-03-06 by Admin

Summary of Coking Ammonium Sulfate Auction Prices (March 5)
| Enterprise (企业) | Feb 24-25 (2月24-25日) | March 3-5 (3月3-5日) | Change (涨跌值) |
|—|—|—|—|
| Shanxi Coking (山西焦化) | 1085 (Excluding loading fee) | 1250 (Excluding loading fee) | 165 |
| Shanxi Yangguang (山西阳光) | 1095-1100 (Excluding loading fee) | 965-970 (Excluding loading fee) | (160/155) |
| Shanxi Liheng (山西立恒) | 1037 (Excluding loading fee) | 1235 (Excluding loading fee) | 198 |
| Shanxi Yongxin (山西永鑫) | 1005-1010 | — | — |
| Shanxi Gengyang (山西梗阳) | 1010 | 1240 | 230 |
| Pingyao Yikuang (平遥一矿) | 1015 (Excluding loading fee) | 1230 (Excluding loading fee) | 215 |
| Meijin Huasheng (美锦华盛) | 1025 (Excluding loading fee) | 1220-1230 (Excluding loading fee) | (195/205) |
| Shanxi Yaxin (山西亚鑫) | 1035-1040 | 1250 | (215/210) |
| Shanxi Dongyi (山西东义) | 1005 (Excluding loading fee) | 1215 (Excluding loading fee) | 210 |
| Xiaoyi Pengfei (孝义鹏飞) | 1010 | 1220 | 210 |
| Shanxi Jin Ding Hongda (山西金鼎鸿达) | 1045-1050 | 1255 | (210/205) |
| Shanxi Jin Ding Lubao (山西金鼎潞宝) | 1055 | 1220-1225 | (165/170) |
| Hebei Huafeng (河北华丰) | 1090 | 1225 | 135 |
| Hebei Handan Iron & Steel (河北邯钢) | 1045 (Excluding loading fee) | 1200 (Excluding loading fee) | 155 |
| Qian'an Jiujiang (迁安九江) | 1130 | — | — |
| Qian'an Zhonghua (迁安中化) | 1136 | 1280 | 144 |
| Tangshan Zhongrun (唐山中润) | 1138 | 1308 | 170 |
| Shandong Laigang (山东莱钢) | 1075 (Excluding loading fee) | 1247 (Excluding loading fee) | 172 |
| Tiexiong Xinsha (铁雄新沙) | 1100 | 1250 | 150 |
| Shandong Rongxin (山东荣信) | 1110 | — | — |
| Yizhou Coal Coking (沂州煤焦化) | 1106 | 1208 | 102 |
| Anhui Linuan (安徽临涣) | 1085 | 1259 | 174 |
| Anhui Liuan Iron & Steel (安徽六安钢铁) | 1040 | 1185 | 145 |
| Henan Liyuan (河南利源) | 1086 | 1195 | 109 |
| Henan Shuncheng (河南顺成) | 1079 | 1200 | 121 |
| Henan Shoushan (河南首山) | 1000 (Excluding loading fee) | 1100 (Excluding loading fee) | 100 |
| Bayannur Energy (巴彦淖尔能源) | 950 (Excluding loading fee) | 1080 (Excluding loading fee) | 130 |
| Xilaifeng (西来峰) | 970 | 1080 | 110 |
| Baogang Qinghua (包钢庆华) | 993 | 1128 | 135 |
| Baogang (包钢) | 993 | 1163 | 170 |
| Jianlong Xigang (建龙西钢) | 1000 | 1060 | 60 |
| Jilin Tonggang (吉林通钢) | 1250 | 1330 | 80 |
| Jilin Jianlong (吉林建龙) | 1295 | 1340 | 45 |
| Yunmei Shizong (云煤师宗) | 1090 | 1200-1210 | (110/120) |

2026-03-06 by Admin

March 5, 2026 (Thursday)
March 5 Potassium Fertilizer Market
Today, the Potassium Chloride (MOP) market trend weakened, primarily reflected in the Northeast region. Currently, backbone potash enterprises are mostly concentrated on shipping to the Northeast. Both imported and domestic sources are being released in large quantities, with daily release volumes reaching approximately 100,000 tons. Supply is relatively sufficient. Under this trend, prices for some varieties have loosened significantly. In other markets, circulation is limited and prices remain high, though transactions are primarily small orders.
Current mainstream domestic 60% crystal to-station prices are 3280–3300; prices still vary by region, and transaction prices are negotiated individually. 57% powder to-station is 3000–3050.
Port Price References:
Qingdao, Lianyungang, Yantai, Zhanjiang, and Zhenjiang Ports: Self-pickup price for 62% white potash is 3550–3600, with high-end prices at 3620–3650.
Qingdao and Yantai Ports: Large granule red potash is 3350–3400.
Yingkou Port: Self-pickup 62% white potash mainstream price is 3550–3580 (down 20–30); large granule red potash self-pickup is 3300–3350 (down 50).
Lianyungang and Weifang Ports: 60% Lao white potash self-pickup is 3300–3350 (down 10).
Fangcheng and Zhanjiang Ports: 60% red powder port self-pickup is around 3230–3300.
Border Trade:
Northeast Border Trade: 62% Russian white potash port rail-delivery price is 3400–3450 (down 50).
Border Ports: 60% large granules are 3100–3200 (down 50).
Currently, MOP port inventory is approximately 2.9 million tons. Market sources are highly concentrated. Under national policy guidance, the main sources are still released by backbone potash enterprises to downstream users, and market circulation is limited.
Today, the Potassium Sulfate (SOP) market price maintained a firm operation. Although there are some guaranteed supplies of MOP, most enterprises still need to purchase externally. Cost pressure remains high, and prices in some markets continue to rise.
Currently, the operating rate of Mannheim SOP units is consistently low. The price of the raw material, sulfuric acid, continues to rise, causing significant cost pressure for Mannheim enterprises. Currently, Mannheim 52% powder ex-factory prices are mostly 4050–4150 yuan/ton, with transaction prices negotiated individually.
SDIC Luo Potash: 52% powder mainstream to-station price is around 3750.
Qinghai Potash: 50% powder to-station price is mostly 3580–3600 yuan/ton; transaction prices are negotiated, and prices differ by brand.
Mannheim SOP: 52% powder ex-factory is around 4050–4200; 50% powder mainstream ex-factory is 3900–4100.
* Northeast: 50% granular SOP ex-factory is 4000–4100; actual transactions are negotiated individually.
Market Tips
Recently, the operating rates of downstream compound fertilizer factories have continued to recover, but most large factories have a certain supply of raw materials. Small and medium-sized enterprises are mostly in a state of cautious procurement. Currently, backbone potash enterprises mostly execute policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices. However, small and medium-sized traders have limited inventory and high source costs; therefore, quotations remain temporarily stable. Under high prices, new order transactions are limited, and the market is basically in a state of stalemate and wait-and-see.
Focus: Pay attention to import arrivals and the release situation of major potash enterprises.

2026-03-06 by Admin

March 5, 2026 (Thursday)
March 5 Ammonium Sulfate Market
The ammonium sulfate market rose significantly on March 5. The Middle East conflict has provided high-level support for international urea prices, and domestic raw material supply remains tight, leading to high market bidding sentiment. In the short term, the ammonium sulfate market is expected to be guided by sentiment, with expectations for further price increases.
Inner Mongolia Qinghua Group Co., Ltd.: Latest ammonium sulfate quote is 1,080 RMB/ton, up 110 RMB/ton; quantity is 500 tons.
Henan Ruzhou Tianrui Coal Coking Co., Ltd.: Ex-factory quote is 1,100 RMB/ton (excluding loading fees), up 100 RMB/ton.
Qilu Petrochemical Power Plant: Ammonium sulfate unit is operating normally; ex-factory quote is 1,130 RMB/ton (including loading fees), up 150 RMB/ton.
Yunnan Coal Energy Anning Coking Plant: Bidding for 420 tons; bidding base price is 1,350 RMB/ton; final transaction is 1,350 RMB/ton, up 90 RMB/ton.
Xintai Zhengda Coking: Ex-factory quote is 1,270 RMB/ton, up 160 RMB/ton.
Jining Shengfa Coking: Small bags ex-factory price is 1,300 RMB/ton (excluding loading fees), up 200 RMB/ton.
Shandong Jinneng Coking: Grade ammonium sulfate unit is operating normally; bidding volume is 500 tons; ex-factory price is 1,250 RMB/ton, up 170 RMB/ton.
Henan Jingbao Coking Co., Ltd.: Latest quote adjusted up by 100 to 1,100 RMB/ton (excluding loading fees).
Qian'an Zhonghua: Bidding volume is 900 tons; final transaction price is 1,280 RMB/ton, up 144 RMB/ton.
Yangmei Taihua (Caprolactam-grade): Small bags transaction at 1,340 RMB/ton, up 195 RMB/ton; ton bags at 1,280 RMB/ton, up 160 RMB/ton.
Caprolactam (CPL) Ammonium Sulfate Factory Price References:
Shandong Luxi Chemical: CPL high-grade product 1,350, up 40.
Baling Hengyi: CPL domestic sales quote 1,360, up 160.
Hualu Hengsheng Power Plant: Ammonium sulfate crystals 1,235, up 60.
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng: CPL ammonium sulfate bulk 1,360 (up 80); 50kg small bags 1,410 (up 60); ton bags 1,420 (up 60); 25kg small bags 1,430 (up 60).
Cangzhou Xuyang: CPL (bulk) quote 1,360, up 60.
Dongming Xuyang: CPL 1,320, up 60.
* Guangxi Hengyi: Caprolactam ammonium sulfate ex-factory quote 1,410, up 180.

2026-03-06 by Admin

March 5 Sulfur Market
Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Port Sulfur Market
Port sulfur prices fluctuated today.
This morning, bid and ask prices in the imported granular sulfur market were 4,470–4,520 RMB/ton.
Buying prices were concentrated between 4,470–4,480 RMB/ton.
Hengli Petrochemical's tender transaction price today was 4,355 RMB/ton.
Driven by the transaction prices of large-scale enterprise tenders, and combined with holders maintaining high offer prices, short-term sulfur prices continue to fluctuate with a strong bias.
As of press time, the mainstream granular reference price in the Zhenjiang Port (Yangtze River region) is 4,470–4,520 RMB/ton.
This price reflects a decrease of 30 RMB/ton compared to the previous working day.
Shandong Liquid Sulfur Market
The Shandong liquid sulfur market experienced volatile operation today.
Geopolitical conflicts are currently ongoing, and market transaction prices have risen to high levels.
Downstream purchasing sentiment has turned cautious, and bidding enthusiasm is average.
Most transactions occurred at the floor price, with local refinery transaction prices reaching 4,200–4,225 RMB/ton.
Port inventories remain at high levels, with resource quotes at 4,220–4,250 RMB/ton.
Actual transactions are negotiated on an individual "one-at-a-time" basis.
As of press time, the mainstream liquid price in the Shandong market is 4,050–4,225 RMB/ton.
* Compared to the previous working day, the low end of the price range increased by 100 RMB/ton, while the high end decreased by 150 RMB/ton.
Market Price Summary Table
| Region/Type | Mainstream Price (RMB/ton) | Change (vs. Previous Day) |
|—|—|—|
| Zhenjiang Port (Granular) | 4,470–4,520 | Down 30 |
| Shandong Market (Liquid) | 4,050–4,225 | Low up 100 / High down 150 |
| Hengli Petrochemical (Tender) | 4,355 | N/A | ‎<This message was edited>

2026-03-06 by Admin

N氮氮 Consulting: March 5 Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) and Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Trends
March 5, 2026 (Thursday)
Today, the Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) market continued its firm operation. In Central China, a small number of 55% powder ex-factory prices were 3,900–3,950 RMB/ton. Most factories and traders continue to suspend taking orders and providing quotations. The price of the raw material sulfur continues to fluctuate at high levels, keeping costs high. Industry participants have strong bullish sentiments, and downstream composite fertilizer plants are maintaining purchases based on immediate needs. Overall, the continuous fluctuation of raw material sulfur continues to affect the sentiment of industry operators. Under the sentiment of manufacturers continuously not taking orders, the trend will likely continue to stay firm and move upward.
Raw Materials:
1. Sulfur:
Today, port sulfur prices fluctuated. In the morning, the inquiry and quotation price for the imported granular sulfur market was 4,470–4,520 RMB/ton, and buying prices were concentrated at 4,470–4,480 RMB/ton. Driven by the tender closing price of large enterprises—Hengli Petrochemical’s tender closed today at 4,355 RMB/ton—and the fact that holders’ price offers remain high, sulfur prices will continue to fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term. As of press time, the mainstream granular reference price in the Yangtze River region (Zhenjiang Port) is 4,470–4,520 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton from the previous working day.
Today, the liquid sulfur market in Shandong fluctuated. Currently, geopolitical conflicts continue, and market transaction prices have risen to high levels. Downstream purchasing sentiment has turned cautious, and bidding activity is average, with most transactions occurring at floor prices. Local refinery transaction prices reached 4,200–4,225 RMB/ton. Port inventories are at high levels, with resource quotations at 4,220–4,250 RMB/ton, and actual transactions are negotiated on a case-by-case basis. As of press time, the mainstream price for liquid sulfur in the Shandong market is 4,050–4,225 RMB/ton, with the low-end up 100 RMB/ton and the high-end down 150 RMB/ton from the previous working day.
2. Synthetic Ammonia:
Today, the mainstream ex-factory price in the Hubei market is 1,930–2,000 RMB/ton (acceptance). The market is stable, and some ammonia enterprises in the region are receiving orders at low levels reasonably well. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, or there may be expectations for a catch-up increase. High-level shipments are facing pressure, and each enterprise is making flexible adjustments based on its own situation. The mainstream ex-factory price in the Hunan market is 2,220–2,220 RMB/ton (cash), with prices but no market activity.
Today, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong region is 1,970–2,220 RMB/ton, showing steady adjustments with local fluctuations. High-level shipments in the area are under pressure, with short-term price reductions to lower inventory for shipments. On one hand, there is the impact of low-priced goods from outside; on the other hand, there are changes in reduction plans. Most are adjusting flexibly based on their own shipment conditions to maintain low inventory levels for shipments.
3. Phosphate Rock:
Today, phosphate rock prices remained steady. In the Hubei region, the shipboard tax-included quotation for 28% grade is 980–1,000 RMB/ton, and the shipboard price for 30% grade phosphate rock is maintained near 1,100–1,120 RMB/ton. In Guizhou, the shipboard price for 30% grade phosphate rock is temporarily maintained at 980–1,020 RMB/ton, with transactions negotiated individually.
Market Price Reference (Mostly actual individual negotiations):
Hubei: 55% powder ex-factory 3,900–3,950; 55% granular ex-factory 3,950–4,000
Shandong: 55% powder mainstream delivered 4,080–4,100; 58% powder delivered 4,300–4,400
Anhui: 55% powder delivered 4,000–4,050
Henan: 55% powder delivered 4,000–4,050
Sichuan: 55% powder cash ex-factory reference 3,850–3,900
Jiangsu: 55% powder delivered near 4,000–4,050; 58% powder delivered 4,300
Hunan: 55% powder delivered near 4,000–4,050
Yunnan: 55% powder ex-factory 3,800; 58% powder ex-factory 4,200–4,280
Northeast: 55% powder Bayuquan Port self-pickup 4,000–4,100 (actual negotiation)
Factory Price Reference:
Hubei Ezhong: 55% powder ex-factory temporarily no quotation, actual negotiation
Hubei Cenao: 55% powder ex-factory temporarily no quotation
Hubei Liuguo: 55% powder ex-factory transaction price negotiated individually
Hubei Kehai: 55% powder cash ex-factory temporarily no quotation
Hubei Dongsheng: 55% powder no quotation
Hubei Xiangyun: 55% powder ex-factory 3,900
Gansu Wunfu: MAP 60% powder ex-factory 4,350, actual negotiation
Jiyuan Toyota Fertilizer: 55% ex-factory 3,950
Henan Jiyuan Wanyang: 55% powder 3,950
Industrial MAP:
Today, the market price for industrial-grade MAP trended firmly upward. The mainstream ex-factory average price for 73% industrial-grade MAP is approximately 6,650–6,750 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Recently, raw material sulfur prices have risen significantly, and enterprises have stopped quoting and signing; holders are mostly reluctant to sell, and market prices have edged upward. In the short term, it is expected that industrial MAP market prices still have an upward expectation. Going forward, more attention needs to be paid to downstream market demand and raw material price changes.
Xinjiang: 73% market ex-warehouse price reference 6,950–7,100
Yunnan: 73% ex-factory 6,650–6,700
Hubei: 73% ex-factory 6,600–6,750; 72% 6,550–6,650
Sichuan: 73% ex-factory 6,750–6,800; 72% 6,550–6,650
Sichuan: 66% ex-factory 5,350–5,450
Guizhou: 73% ex-factory 6,600–6,750
Sichuan Shikafeng: 72% ex-factory 6,750, actual negotiation
Sichuan Longmang Dadi: 73% ex-factory reference 6,800
Sichuan Hongda: 72% actual negotiation
Hubei Xiangyun: 73% ex-factory 6,750, actual negotiation case-by-case
Hubei Jiashili: 73% industrial MAP temporarily no quotation, mainly actual negotiation
Hubei Xinyangfeng: 73% industrial MAP temporarily no quotation, actual transactions case-by-case
Yunnan Zhongzheng: 73% MAP ex-factory 6,700
Kintech (Jinzhengda) MAP: 73% ex-factory price 6,750 RMB
Phosphoric Diammonium (DAP)
Today, the price trend for DAP remains firm. Under continuous policy guidance, factory prices have followed previous levels, and local market transaction prices are still rising. Raw material prices remain at high levels of fluctuation, providing significant cost support. Enterprises continue to ship pending orders. From the demand side, the market is showing a slow follow-up trend, with downstream mostly adopting a strategy of purchasing based on need. There is still a certain gap in rigid demand for the future, waiting for further release of demand.
As the time for spring farming fertilization approaches, the demand side still provides favorable support. It is expected that in the short term, the DAP market will maintain a steady and firm operation, and it is not ruled out that regional markets will continue to see tight supply and rising prices.
Mainstream Market Price Reference:
Shandong: 64% granular ex-warehouse 4,450–4,550; 57% brown ex-warehouse 4,000–4,050
Hebei: 64% granular ex-warehouse 4,400–4,500; 57% original color ex-warehouse 4,000–4,050
Hubei: 64% mainstream ex-factory 4,150, actual negotiation
Jiangsu: 64% granular ex-warehouse 4,450–4,500
Liaoning: 64% port self-pickup 4,450–4,500; 57% self-pickup 4,050–4,100
Heilongjiang: 64% delivered 4,500–4,600; 57% delivered near 4,100–4,180
Xinjiang: 64% delivered near 4,450–4,600
Yunnan/Guizhou: 64% DAP Bayuquan delivered reference 4,250–4,300; 57% Bayuquan delivered reference 3,900–3,950
Yunnan Xiangfeng: DAP 64% Bayuquan delivered 4,250 RMB/ton, actual negotiation
Enterprise Price Reference:
Hubei Yihua: 64% ex-factory reference 4,150, case-by-case negotiation
Hubei Huangmailing: 64% no quotation, maintain actual negotiations
Hubei Liuguo (Xinguan): 64% ex-factory 4,150
Hubei Dayukou: 64% no quotation
Hubei Xingfa: 64% ex-factory no quotation
Hubei Xiangyun: 64% 4,150
Hubei Dongsheng: 64% no quotation, case-by-case negotiation
Inner Mongolia Daduyuntian: Quotation temporarily suspended
Gansu Jinchang: DAP 64% ex-factory temporarily no quotation, mainly executing pre-paid orders
* Shaanxi Huashan: 60% ex-factory 4,000–4,050

2026-03-06 by Admin

Dear Fertilizer Friends,

I have been in the fertilizer industry for more than 40 years, and I have seen urea prices ranging from USD 60 FOB Middle East to USD 1,000 PMT and above, and DAP prices from as low as USD 115 FOB Tampa to more than USD 1,400 PMT.

The moral of the story will repeat itself: from the financial crisis and other periods of complete instability and unpredictability to periods of normality, to any other word ending in … ity, greed will come to hunt. The pounding of Iran will eventually stop, and the old elevator adage will apply: you will come to see the same people going up as you will see going down.

My recommendation in situations like this is always the same: sell and buy in increments until the conflict is over. Average out the price over time. Once the conflict is over, what went up fast will come crashing down even faster. History will repeat itself!

This week’s report is a bit shortened due to travel in Norway.

Best regards

Stein

UREA

Global urea market attention was dominated by the fallout from US intervention in Iran and the subsequent regional conflict that has sent prices soaring and severely disrupted trade flows from the Middle East. In Iran, market visibility was lacking following an internet blackout, with no fresh transactions heard and the operational status of its producers unclear. The wider Middle East saw activity draw to a halt as Iranian threats to shipping effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption was highlighted by QatarEnergy’s decision to halt all urea production at its Mesaieed complex following strikes on its facilities, leaving several loaded vessels for destinations including India and Brazil stranded within the Arab Gulf. West of Suez, the supply shock from the Middle East sent prices spiralling upwards as traders scrambled to secure alternative tonnage. In Algeria, at least 150,000 t granular urea was sold, with AOA eventually concluding business for April loading at $680/t FOB, a level not seen since October 2022. Egyptian producers capped a similarly relentless week of business with Mopco eventually placing granular at $665/t FOB for March shipment to Europe, a level also not seen since 2022 Q4. The bullish sentiment was mirrored in Nigeria, where Dangote sold 30,000 t granular at $665/t FOB for April, a jump of $210/t on business concluded in early February. In the Americas, the NOLA market experienced a volatile week of trading. Strong demand for the upcoming spring season, coupled with global supply fears, pushed March barges to a new high of $620/st FOB before easing slightly. Prices had begun the week around $468/st FOB, illustrating the scale of the market’s reaction. Further south in Brazil, the market remains in its off-season, limiting demand. Still, offers still climbed significantly to $600-620/t CFR, with some of this material reportedly linked to Qatari cargoes that are currently unable to ship. European markets also gained significant momentum. In France, granular trades were reported in the €600-665/t FCA range as end-users pushed ahead with purchasing for the spring, despite elevated prices and ongoing affordability concerns. Delivered prices into southern Europe were pegged at $650-690/t CFR, reflecting the new highs from North Africa. In the Baltic Sea, prilled offers into Latin America were heard at $550/t FOB equivalent, up by over $100/t on prior business, while granular netbacks from Brazil were cited at around $530-550/t FOB by the end of the week. In Asia, a new benchmark was set in the Southeast, where Malaysia's Petronas sold 30,000 t granular at $650/t FOB for April loading, a near $160/t jump on regional business last week. China, however, remains quiet on the export front, with CRU continuing to assess both granular and prilled indexes as ‘no market’. Domestically, Chinese prices have rallied on the back of surging international values and strengthening agricultural demand for the spring application season. The supply disruption has also created a precarious situation for India. Following RCF's 18 February tender, a substantial portion of the 1.3 Mt urea secured was set to be sourced from the Middle East. With several vessels now stranded, traders are scrambling to cover their positions, with one trading group that had planned to cover from the Arab Gulf now understood to have covered its position from Algeria. Market sentiment suggests India will not be lenient towards suppliers who have indicated multi-origin options, particularly with India's own domestic production hampered by feedstock concerns. There remains significant uncertainty as to whether RCF will grant laycan extensions beyond the 31 March shipment deadline, and the potential for delayed arrivals this time around is likely to impose further strain on India's dwindling stock levels just as many domestic plants enter seasonal maintenance.

Urea prices look set to remain supported as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with further significant increases likely over the coming weeks if no resolution to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is found.

PHOSPHATES

Spot market activity for DAP and MAP was limited this week, as most buyers and sellers stepped back to ascertain the likely impact of the conflict in the Middle East, with many players focused on urea business and price movements. Still, most players are confident that supply issues likely to result from the conflict are set to add further support to a market that was already bullish due to an exceptionally tight supply outlook and high raw materials prices, though poor affordability may lead to demand destruction and limit price upside. Most major producers and many traders had pulled phosphate fertilizer offers by mid-week, with sources indicating that offers are likely to be well above last offers and business when they return. The December news that China will temporarily halt DAP, MAP and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market and led suppliers to increase offers.

The ongoing conflict makes an earlier return by Chinese exporters less likely, as well as threatening supply from key origin Saudi Arabia and further increasing costs and reducing supply of raw materials for producers across the globe. Still, affordability will likely provide some limits to DAP/MAP price increases over the coming weeks and months, as downstream agricultural prices are not as supportive as they were during previous price spikes in 2008 and 2022, while steep increases in urea may make buyers less willing to pay up for P and K. Spot prices for MAP to Brazil were assessed up at $740-760/t CFR from $730-740/t, up 18% or $115/t year to date and representing the highest level since August 2025. Prices last year peaked at $760/t CFR, which was their highest level since September 2022. No new deals were reported this week, and later in the week, suppliers were indicating that they would no longer consider selling as low as $760/t CFR. Despite the lack of fresh sales to Brazil, business was reported to the Southern Cone region for DAP and MAP for April loading from the Baltic, bringing up both Argentina CFRs and Baltic FOBs. There was also some fresh activity in the US, where prices for DAP barges at New Orleans increased on a wave of trades totalling over 70,000 t, while MAP and TSP prices at NOLA also firmed.

Prices were already expected to climb even higher than 2025's peaks, given severe export restrictions in China. The conflict in the Middle East is set to tighten the market further and push prices even higher over the coming weeks.

2026-03-06 by Admin

Nexus Weekly Update
05/03/2026

The Pacific has had an unusual feel this week. While the market remains firm and has been gradually improving over the past few weeks, activity has been somewhat muted as many participants take a ‘wait and see’ approach. Fundamentally the region is well supported. NOPAC remains balanced, though it has not strengthened at the same pace as other trades. Australia continues to provide steady demand through grain and mineral exports, while Indo/India coal remains a key pillar of activity in the region. Despite this, there is a noticeable sense of caution across the market. Ongoing uncertainty, particularly around developments in the Middle East, has made both owners and charterers more hesitant to pull the trigger, with greater focus on market direction and commodity price risk. There is still a healthy volume of forward cargo under discussion, but negotiations are progressing more cautiously than usual. As a result, while sentiment remains firm, the market itself has felt slightly quieter than the underlying fundamentals might suggest.

The Middle East market has descended into near chaos this week, with the situation around the Strait of Hormuz creating significant uncertainty across all shipping sectors. Following escalating tensions, Iranian forces have reportedly been broadcasting over VHF warning vessels that the strait is closed and that ships should not attempt to transit. While there has been no universally recognised formal closure, traffic has dropped significantly and many operators are choosing to stay clear of the area for the time being.

In practice this has left a number of vessels stuck inside the Gulf while others are unwilling or unable to enter, creating a highly uncertain tonnage picture across the region for all sizes. The immediate impact on freight is difficult to quantify, as it remains too early to assess how many ships are effectively trapped inside the Gulf versus those diverting away from the area.
Adding to the disruption, QatarEnergy has reportedly declared force majeure on an LPG shipment. While this development is primarily within the energy sector, it highlights the broader operational and geopolitical risks currently surrounding the region. For dry bulk markets the relevance is more indirect, but disruptions to energy flows and regional logistics tend to increase overall market volatility and reinforce the reluctance of owners to commit vessels into the Gulf until there is greater clarity.

If a significant portion of the fleet remains stuck within the Gulf while incoming vessels stay away, the available tonnage count could tighten quickly, potentially leading to sharp spikes in rates for cargoes that still require lifting. Equally important will be the aftermath. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the near term, many owners may remain cautious about sending ships back into the region, which could keep freight levels elevated for some time as the fleet gradually rebalances. A number of PNI clubs have withdrawn vessel cover entirely, until further notice.

Operationally, India appears to be functioning relatively normally for the moment, although owners have been quick to withdraw or revise their freight indications while reassessing the situation, creating additional volatility in negotiations. On the east coast, rates remain healthy with a steady flow of iron ore cargoes alongside Indonesian coal pulling vessels down into the region. This side of the market is expected to remain firm in the coming weeks.

South Africa and surrounding countries continue to see a healthy flow of cargoes which is helping keep rates supported, particularly with the Atlantic basin also showing strong underlying demand.

The Atlantic basin has seen mixed developments this week, with the Mediterranean leading the strength across the region. In the Mediterranean, rates have firmed considerably as the usual pool of older handy vessels trading locally has been drawn into a steady flow of cargoes, largely moving into the Continent with grains. As these ships typically remain within the region, the additional employment has quickly tightened the available tonnage list, creating something of a short squeeze. As a result, freight levels have pushed higher and period activity has also picked up, with rates for larger handy vessels in particular moving up.

Across the US Gulf the picture is more balanced. The tonnage list has been gradually building, which has helped steady rates after recent volatility. On the Supramax side there are signs of improving sentiment, although the growing tonnage count is expected to keep the market relatively contained in the near term, with more vessels likely to appear over the coming week.

Further south in ECSA the market has stabilised after the strong run seen in recent weeks. Rates are currently moving largely sideways, with a reduction in fresh cargoes broadly matched by a smaller pool of available vessels. The market remains delicately balanced and would not require much additional demand to push rates higher again. A number of grain tenders continue to circulate in the region, although many have yet to conclude as owners remain cautious about committing tonnage while bunker prices are rising sharply.

Fuel prices have also reacted sharply, with bunker levels rising by roughly USD 130-150 pmt over the past few days. This has made it increasingly difficult for owners to provide firm freight indications, given the exposure to rapidly moving fuel costs. As a result, we are seeing much shorter and sharper validities on freight offers, often leaving charterers with limited time to evaluate and respond. At the time of writing, VLSFO bunker prices are being quoted around approximately USD 680 pmt in Singapore and USD 650 pmt in Gibraltar.
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2026-03-05 by Admin

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗹𝗽𝗵𝘂𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀, due to severe disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Sulphur exports from Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are effectively on hold. The impact on sulphur trading depends on how long the conflict lasts and how long the Strait of Hormuz remains out of action.

Using the sulphur trade data that Acuity Commodities publish every quarter, 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟲𝗺 𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰, 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟱𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. West Asia here includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

With no Middle East export cargoes able to transit the Hormuz, though the Suez could be explored as an alternative, traders and buyers are being forced to look elsewhere for supplies. 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝘇𝗮𝗸𝗵, 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻, 𝗨𝗦𝗚𝗖 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗹𝗽𝗵𝘂𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀. 𝗛𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿, 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗳. 𝗜𝗻 𝗞𝗮𝘇𝗮𝗸𝗵𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻, 𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀.

There are opportunistic offers, including Middle East cargoes that managed to leave the Hormuz ahead of the conflict, or part-cargo tonnes that are unsold. 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝘀? 𝗪𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆. Also, China and Southern Africa are two markets holding significant sulphur inventories at ports and are therefore still seeing active domestic discussions.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆. When Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, sulphur was priced at around $200/t CFR China. Before the current Middle East conflict, sulphur was trading at $515-520/t CFR. Any further increases will be difficult for buyers to absorb given existing credit limits.

𝗜𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘂𝘇 𝗯𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝘄𝗼, 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲. If the conflict lasts up to a month, tighter supply will put further upward pressure on prices, with the market relying heavily on inventories for consumers and storage space for producers to cushion price shocks. Anything beyond two months would squeeze global sulphur supply, potentially forcing sulphur consumers to curtail production.

2026-03-05 by Admin

Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Thursday, 5 March 2026

Markets remain extremely volatile as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt nitrogen trade flows and energy supply. Uncertainty over LNG supply to India has raised concerns about potential reductions in domestic production and the possibility of increased import demand later in the year.

Latest derivative levels

International Markets

Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 494 (+7)
– Mar: $570 / $610 ↑
– Apr: $570 / $610 ↑
– May: $520 / $600 ↑

Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 489 (-8.5)
– Mar: $600 / $700 ↑
– Apr: $600 / $700 ↑

Brazil

Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 477.5 (unchanged)
– Mar: $560 / $600 ↑
– Apr: $560 / $610 ↑
– May: $480 / $550 →

Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 217.5 (+0.5)
– Mar: $240 / $250 →
– Apr: $230 / $250 →

MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 725 (unchanged)
– Mar: $730 / $750 →
– Apr: $730 / $750 →

US Markets (NOLA)

NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 565 / 575 ↓
– Apr: 560 / 570 ↓
– May: 490 / 510 ↓

NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 663 →
– Apr: 640 / 660 →
– May: 630 / 650 →

NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 390 / 395 ↑
– Apr: 392 / 396 ↑
– May: n/a / n/a →

2026-03-05 by Admin

NCIC awards

DAP $780
CAN $325
Urea $625

2026-03-05 by Admin

LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, MOPCO sold 5,000 tonnes of granular urea at $665/tonne FOB for March loading to Europe.

2026-03-05 by Admin

A total of 5 vessels have now been hit in the conflict, 4 while trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz and one in port in Bahrain.

Some vessels still risk a transit. 2550 TEU “SSF Leo” transited during the past 15 hours. It appears to be operated by Global Feeder Shipping which is owned by Abu Dhabi Port Group.

Widespread attacks across the region continue, and seemingly still widening the geographic reach of the attacks. Omani state media report of a drone crashing in the vicinity of the port in Salalah. Note that US-flagged "Maersk Sentosa" left the port last evening.

Qatar Energy has stopped not only production of LNG, but now also some of the downstream products such as urea, polymers, methanol and aluminum, India has begun rationing gas to the industrial sector.

Carriers are increasingly suspending bookings to/from the Gulf and in some cases also the Red Sea. CMA CGM has for example suspended all bookings, whereas other have, for now, done so only in relation to reefers and hazardous goods. Shippers should keep an eye on “their” carriers, and assume that if the conflict continues just a few more days, it is likely that all carriers will cease all acceptance to the Gulf.

OOCL has advised their vessels not to come within a 200nm radius of the Strait of Hormuz.

Maersk has created a site with a list of the, so far, 20 vessels which are operationally impacted to/from Strait of Hormuz with status on each one. I have placed a link in the comments.

Notices of rate increases are coming in from many carriers. Not only related to cargo to/from the Middle East, but also on other trade lanes. As an example, 3 days ago MSC advised of an increase from Far East to Europe of 200-400 USD/40’ from 15th March. Yesterday this was retracted and replaced with an advisory of new FAK rates equalling an increase of 1000 USD/40’ instead. Likewise, Hapag-Lloyd has advised of increases from Far East to Europe of 900-1400 USD/40’. The new FAK rate for both carriers is 4000 USD/40’. For comparison both the WCI and the NYFI indices are around 2000 USD/40’ presently and the SCFI is at 1420 USD/TEU.

Average IFO380 bunker fuel price is up 9%. In New York VLSFO price is up 12%.

Rates for VLCC tankers hit a record high, above 400,000 USD/day – a doubling from an already high level before the weekend.

Container carriers appear to approach the FMC to ask for a waiver in relation to the usual 30-day notice period for new charges in trades to/from the US in order to implement the new war risk/emergency contingency surcharges asap for Gulf and Red Sea cargo at a level around 1500 USD/TEU. They did the same back in late 2023 when the Red Sea crisis escalated, and FMC granted such exemptions. It also did lead to significant subsequent criticism of the FMC at the time.

Today is day 835 of the Red Sea crisis and day 4 of the Hormuz crisis.

2026-03-05 by Admin

s we enter March 2026, the Chinese phosphate market is facing a complex environment driven by "High Costs + Tight Supply." Below is a summary of the current market landscape to help you navigate your procurement strategy.
1. Surging Production Costs (Cost-Push Inflation)
• Sulphur & Gas: Due to escalating Middle East tensions, imported sulphur prices remain on a volatile upward trajectory, while global natural gas surges have directly inflated synthetic ammonia costs.
• Domestic Ammonia: Prices in Hubei and Shandong have already risen by 30 RMB/ton, with low factory inventories supporting these higher levels.
• Phosphate Rock: Prices remain firm and are expected to rise further due to strict environmental inspections and supply contractions in Northern China.
2. Tightening Export Supply & Policy Restrictions
• Policy Uncertainty: Export policies for 2026 are still unconfirmed, and the Chinese government is prioritizing domestic supply for the peak spring farming season.
• Inspection Barriers: Mandatory CIQ (Customs) inspection times for SSP and TSP have been extended, and export declarations for N-P compound fertilizers are currently suspended.
• Volume Decline: Total export volumes for MAP and DAP decreased significantly in 2025 (down 120,000 tons and 880,000 tons respectively), leaving very little surplus for the international market.
3. Market Price Outlook & Logistics Risks
• Price Strengthening: Faced with extreme cost pressure, many MAP plants have stopped taking new orders. The mainstream price for 55% MAP in Hubei is now solidified above 3,900–3,950 RMB/ton.
• Industrial Grade: 73% Industrial Grade MAP remains steady at high levels (approx. 6,550–6,650 RMB/ton) as manufacturers pass on the increased costs of raw materials.
• Logistics Alert: Beyond product prices, Middle East instability has led to soaring ocean freight rates and increased insurance premiums, which will directly impact CFR quotes.
Strategic Advice:
Given the risk of further supply tightening and logistics delays, we strongly recommend securing your requirements early. We are monitoring the "CIQ" inspection windows closely to capture any available export opportunities for you.

2026-03-05 by Admin

One more thing, heard bids of $630/mt FOB were rejected in SE ASia. I assume that was BFI because I did not hear of any new Indonesia tender.

2026-03-05 by Admin

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