China Early Morning Brief (2026-03-17)
Phosphate Rock: The market remains firm with narrowing price fluctuations. Trading is primarily driven by rigid demand. In Northern China, capacity release is restricted due to normalized environmental inspections, leading to a tight supply-demand balance. Enterprises show a strong intent to maintain high prices; the market remains steady yet resilient.
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) – Agricultural Grade: Yesterday, the domestic MAP market was stable but quiet. In Hubei, the ex-factory price for 55% powder remains around 4,000 RMB/ton. Rising costs of raw materials (sulfur and synthetic ammonia) are increasing pressure on factories. However, downstream acceptance is average. The market is expected to continue running firm at high levels in the short term.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): The domestic DAP market performed flatly yesterday. Rising raw material prices have placed significant pressure on the cost side, leading to a decline in overall market activity. Downstream buyers have limited tolerance for high prices, purchasing only for immediate needs. The market is expected to undergo high-level consolidation in the short term.
Industrial Grade MAP: The market was largely stable with minor movements. The average mainstream market price for 73% industrial MAP is approximately 6,750 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Most factories continue to suspend quotes/orders; a few enterprises are releasing small volumes. High-price transactions have slowed, dominated by small orders. Prices are expected to remain steady temporarily, pending new factory policies and downstream demand.
Yellow Phosphorus: The market continued its downward trend yesterday. A strong "wait-and-see" atmosphere prevails, with intensified maneuvering between buyers and sellers. Downstream demand is weak; while rigid demand exists, there is a clear push for lower prices. Rumors of low-price deals are frequent, and some plants are inclined to offer discounts to secure orders. Ex-factory prices in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan were referenced at 25,800–26,000 RMB/ton. The weak trend is expected to persist today.
Phosphoric Acid: Market performance was polarized yesterday. Wet-process purified phosphoric acid saw local price hikes of about 200 RMB/ton due to low inventory and high cost support. Conversely, thermal-process phosphoric acid costs fell alongside yellow phosphorus, leading to downstream price suppression and increased market friction.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP): Prices saw a slight correction yesterday. Industry profit margins remain decent, and traders are more willing to ship, leading to some low-price volume clearing.
Traders (Mainstream): Yunnan (~4,830 RMB/ton); Sichuan (~4,900 RMB/ton); Hubei (~5,250 RMB/ton).
Monocalcium/Dicalcium Phosphate (MDCP): Yunnan (~6,150 RMB/ton); Guizhou (~6,200 RMB/ton).
Monocalcium Phosphate (MCP): Yunnan (~6,550 RMB/ton); Guizhou (~6,700 RMB/ton).
Pesticides: Glyphosate (95% Technical): Spot quotes at 26,800–27,500 RMB/ton.
Glufosinate: Reference quotes near 48,500–49,000 RMB/ton.
Nicosulfuron: Ex-factory at 165,000 RMB/ton (negotiable).
Diquat: Market reference 17,500–18,000 RMB/ton.
Cyhalofop-butyl: Stable at 104,000 RMB/ton.
Pretilachlor: New orders at 30,000–31,000 RMB/ton.
Sulfur: Domestic imported sulfur spot prices rose yesterday. Granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port reached 4,670 RMB/ton (+0.86% WoW), with late-session trades hitting 4,700 RMB/ton. In Shandong, liquid sulfur rose to 4,220–4,433 RMB/ton. However, Northwest auctions remained poor, with prices dropping to 4,210–4,380 RMB/ton. High-level volatility is expected in the short term.
Sulfuric Acid: Local markets moved upward yesterday. Shandong producers raised prices by 30–50 RMB/ton due to high sulfur costs and upcoming maintenance schedules. Anhui’s leading plants raised prices by 100 RMB/ton following regional trends. Yunnan prices rose by 60 RMB/ton. Current 98% smelting acid in Hubei is around 1,200–1,250 RMB/ton (delivered).
Iron Phosphate (FePO4): Prices for anhydrous iron phosphate are steady at 11,600–12,200 RMB/ton. High sulfur prices continue to provide cost support. The market is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode as battery manufacturers begin bidding, which will provide clearer price guidance for the future.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP): Prices fluctuated narrowly last week. While Lithium Carbonate spot prices dipped due to news sentiment, LFP quotes remained stable. New energy vehicle demand continues to release steadily. Current market prices: Power-type LFP at 55,600–61,400 RMB/ton; Energy storage-type LFP at 53,500–58,000 RMB/ton.
Compound Fertilizer: Tightened exports and reserve releases have affected sentiment, but rising costs of sulfur, sulfuric acid, and ammonia provide a floor for prices. The market is expected to focus on fulfilling existing orders with narrow high-level fluctuations.
Synthetic Ammonia: The market rose significantly yesterday with good trading atmosphere during the peak agricultural season. However, expected new capacity in some regions is putting pressure on high-price shipments. Dealers are becoming more cautious, focusing on active shipping.
Hydrogen Peroxide: Prices in Northern China shifted upward due to increased demand from downstream caprolactam and paper mills. In East China (Anhui), supply is gradually increasing. The market is expected to remain stable across the north and south in the short term.
Potassium Dihydrogen Phosphate (MKP): Downstream demand is lukewarm, but rising phosphoric acid costs have forced enterprise quotes upward to 9,050–9,200 RMB/ton (ex-factory). Actual prices are flexible based on order size.
Ferrous Sulfate: Lomon Billions (Xiangyang): Heptahydrate bulk ex-factory quote at 710 RMB/ton (Content ≥85%).
* Panzhihua Haifengxin: Heptahydrate ex-factory quote at 500 RMB/ton.
Monday, 16 March 2026 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt: Mopco has sold 10,000t of granular urea at $710/t FOB Damietta for April shipment to a nearby destination.
The sale is $10/t higher than the previous business by the producer a week ago.
U.K. market has surprisingly slowed down as N is not good value vs most crop values just now so cannot see any replacement GU cargoes coming to U.K. until new season
AN from Groupe Azote & Achema are still arriving at circa euro 510 cfr
DAP is a disaster as vessel delays are causing issues so most suppliers only offering late April/May to deliver
We’re busy executing existing order book, with new orders at replacement values
New season will be v interesting
Hope you’re recovering as planned ?
Hey Phil! Hope you're well? Just wanted to check in with you about Iran, in case you'd heard anything. Seems like they're closing three tenders tomorrow and apparently their ammonia and urea plants are all running normally? Have you heard anything?
[Urea] On March 16, the daily production of the urea industry was 220,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, it increased by 23,600 tons. The current operating rate is 93.53%, an increase of 6.15% from 87.38% last year.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Monday, 16 March 2026
Nola urea values extended gains on Friday with March/April trading up to $640/st fob. Global markets remain tight as Middle East disruptions persist, while Indonesian producers are extending plant operations amid a surge in export inquiries. UAN values in the US continue to climb sharply, with new offers $15–20 higher.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 700 (+137.5)
– Mar: $640 / $670 →
– Apr: $720 / $760 ↑
– May: $620 / $750 ↑
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 687.5 (+102.5)
– Mar: $650 / $720 →
– Apr: $670 / $750 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 627.5 (+127.5)
– Mar: $610 / $630 →
– Apr: $700 / $730 ↑
– May: $550 / $650 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 260 (+22.5)
– Mar: $240 / $260 ↑
– Apr: $240 / $280 ↑
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 795 (+60)
– Mar: $740 / $780 →
– Apr: $810 / $850 ↑
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 595 / 605 →
– Apr: 635 / 645 ↑
– May: 620 / 630 ↑
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 630 / 640 →
– Apr: 650 / 660 ↑
– May: 640 / 655 ↑
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 395 / 410 ↑
– Apr: 420 / 430 ↑
– May: 415 / 425 ↑
PVC: Today our price is usd 800 fob HCM in container, jumbo bag
Global Fertilizer Trade Is Being Rewritten: What Changed in the Potash Market Over the Past Year
Over the past 12 months the global fertilizer market—especially potash—has quietly undergone a structural reset. What we are seeing today is not simply a price cycle but a reconfiguration of supply chains, geopolitical alignments, and trade routes.
Potash remains one of the most concentrated commodity markets in the world. Canada, Russia and Belarus continue to dominate global export supply. Canada remains the most politically stable anchor of the market, while Russia and Belarus have managed to restore a significant share of their export volumes by redirecting logistics toward Asia, Latam and Africa.
At the same time, new production geography is slowly emerging. Projects in Laos, Canada and several developing regions are beginning to reshape expectations about mid-term supply growth. However, most of these projects require years before meaningful volumes reach the market.
What has changed most over the past year is not production capacity but trade flows.
Three structural shifts are now visible.
✅First, sanctions and trade restrictions have accelerated the fragmentation of fertilizer markets. Europe is actively reducing dependence on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers, while countries such as Brazil, India and several Southeast Asian economies have increased purchases from these suppliers.
✅Second, the industry is moving from a simple “volume market” toward origin diversification. Large agricultural importers increasingly want supply security from multiple sources rather than dependence on a single producing region.
✅Third, logistics has become a strategic variable. Freight costs, access to ports, container availability and geopolitical shipping routes now influence fertilizer pricing almost as much as the underlying commodity itself.
These changes are opening several new niches.
One opportunity lies in multi-origin trading strategies, where traders combine Canadian, Middle Eastern and other supply streams to reduce geopolitical exposure for buyers.
Another is the growing demand for specialty fertilizers and tailored blends. Instead of simply selling MOP in bulk, suppliers are increasingly offering crop-specific or region-specific formulations for horticulture, irrigation systems and high-value agriculture.
Finally, the fastest growth in demand continues to come from import-dependent agricultural economies such as Brazil, India and parts of Southeast Asia.
For exporters and traders, the strategic lesson is clear: the next phase of the fertilizer market will not be defined purely by price cycles. It will be defined by logistics resilience, supply diversification and trade intelligence.
In other words, the winners of the next decade will not necessarily be those who produce the most fertilizer—but those who can deliver it reliably, from multiple origins, through stable trade corridors to the world’s fastest-growing agricultural markets
China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief (2026-03-16)
❤ Urea
Last week, the domestic urea market saw strong but narrow fluctuations as supply and demand remained in a deadlocked tug-of-law. While international geopolitical factors boosted sentiment and supported spot prices, policy-guided price caps restricted significant gains.
Supply: Daily production remains high, and the release of commercial reserves ensures ample supply.
Demand: Top-dressing in the North is ending; downstream buyers are cautious, and the recovery in industrial demand provides limited support.
Outlook: No clear trend for significant gains or losses; the market is expected to remain in range-bound oscillation.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia
The market continued its upward trend last week with a positive trading atmosphere.
Status: Inventories are generally low across the board, resulting in zero shipping pressure. New orders are consistently hitting higher price points.
Sentiment: Market players remain relatively cautious regarding new purchases.
Outlook: Low-priced enterprises in certain regions may see "catch-up" price increases. Watch for new capacity coming online; the market will likely consolidate while focusing on active shipments.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate
Prices continued to rise last week.
Drivers: High international urea prices are benefiting the ammonium sulfate market. Rising domestic production costs are also fueling the push for higher prices.
Caution: As prices climb, risk awareness among traders is increasing.
Outlook: Short-term market movement will likely focus on wait-and-see consolidation at high levels. Keep a close eye on the situation in the Middle East.
❤ Ammonium Chloride
Transaction centers continued to shift upward last week.
Status: Previous backlogs have been cleared, and prices for new orders have surged.
Demand: Compound fertilizer plants are resuming/increasing production, boosting rigid demand. Traders are buying into the uptrend.
Supply: Most Soda-Ash/Ammonium Chloride plants have stopped taking new orders to wait for higher prices.
Outlook: Downstream buyers have started accepting the new quotes; the market is expected to digest recent gains in the coming days.
❤ Melamine
Supported by multiple favorable factors, prices surged significantly last week.
Status: The tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. Most market participants remain bullish.
Outlook: While there is still room for growth, the pace of increases may slow down as end-users show some resistance to the recent series of sharp price hikes.
❤ Potash
The market saw slight fluctuations last week.
Potassium Chloride (MOP): Prices fluctuated slightly due to relatively sufficient downstream raw material supply.
Potassium Sulfate (SOP): Limited supply and cost pressures pushed prices consistently higher.
Outlook: New order transactions are slowing down due to the high price levels.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): The market remains firm and rising. In Hubei, 55% powder is around 4,000 RMB/ton. Most manufacturers have suspended new orders/sales. Short-term prices will remain high due to elevated raw material costs.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): The market is operating at high levels. High raw material costs are putting pressure on producers. Supply is tightening as companies focus on shipping existing orders and local agricultural demand is released.
Outlook: The firm upward trend is expected to persist in the short term.
❤ Compound Fertilizer
The market performed strongly last week, pushed upward by rising raw material costs.
Pricing: Mainstream ex-factory prices for 45%S (315) are referenced at 3,200–3,400 RMB/ton.
Market Dynamics: Local agricultural demand is moving forward, and low-to-mid-priced inventory is thinning out, helping high-priced orders land.
* Outlook: While distributors remain in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding high prices, the market will continue to trend upward at high levels in the short term.
The project
Saipem, in a 50/50 joint venture with Clough, is the exclusive EPC contractor for the development of Perdaman’s Ceres urea plant on the Burrup Peninsula, approximately 20 km northwest of Karratha, on the coastline of Western Australia.
Once completed, it will be the world’s largest gas stream ammonia-urea plant, with single line of ammonia, with a production capacity of 2.14 MMTPA and Australia’s first urea export project.
The facility will use local natural gas for fertilizer production, employing innovative and low-emission technologies. It brings together key areas: ammonia production, urea and granulation, utilities, and supporting infrastructure such as port facilities and water supply. It will span two main sites connected by a causeway, with dedicated areas for production, storage, and administration. A 3.2 km conveyor will link the plant to the port, ensuring efficient transport and loading of urea for export.
The project will feature advanced processing units, large-scale storage, and modern facilities designed for sustainable operation and environmental care.
An extraordinary project
Project Ceres will be the largest urea plant in the world and a global benchmark for high energy efficiency and advanced construction methods.
It is also on track to achieve net carbon zero by 2050, applying best practices to minimise greenhouse gas emissions. This state-of-the-art facility will use Topsoe’s SynCOR Ammonia™ technology for the largest single-line ammonia plant and Saipem’s Snamprogetti™ Urea technology to produce next-generation fertilisers with lower environmental impact.
Project Ceres is committed to delivering positive economic and social benefits. It will create approximately 2,000 jobs during construction and about 200 permanent positions once operational. A key focus during construction is engaging local and Indigenous communities by offering career, training, and business opportunities to ensure long-term social impact.
The plant is designed with a modular approach to improve efficiency, reduce on-site activities, and keep time and costs under control. It features 110 modules – 47 pre-assembled units and 63 pre-assembled racks – with a total weight of about 62,885 tonnes.
The facility also features an advanced control system to ensure the highest-quality urea.
This project will strengthen the fertiliser industry and help secure the global supply of agricultural products, supporting food stability for millions of people worldwide
Quoted from the Nitrogen Association:
Dear colleagues: If the supply guarantee efforts are inadequate, it will be impossible to facilitate exports. We do not encourage selling urea at prices close to the guidance price, and no payment method is allowed to exceed the guidance price. Enterprises in all regions that do not adhere to this spirit are requested to rectify their practices immediately. Please monitor each other and, if necessary, submit specific materials anonymously to the designated email address to report the situation. This will help prevent personal interests from being compromised due to issues arising from others’ actions!
Report email: hfjubaoyouxiang@163.com
Based on the report from Nitrogen Consulting dated March 10, 2026, here is the translation of the international urea market situation:
International Urea Market Overview (March 10, 2026)
Driven by military conflicts in the Middle East, international urea prices have skyrocketed this week. In some regions, export prices have increased by $200/ton compared to the same period last week, representing a 40% surge.
1. Global Supply Threats and Regional Impacts
Middle East Logistics: As the largest export region, the Middle East accounts for 35% of global seaborne urea trade (approx. 20 million tons annually). Currently, most shipowners refuse to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and some insurers have cancelled coverage for vessels in the area.
Production Halts: QatarEnergy, one of the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producers, has suspended urea production. This has also pressured Indian domestic production due to the cessation of Qatari LNG exports.
Australia: Currently entering its peak fertilization season, Australia is highly vulnerable as approximately 64% of its urea is sourced from the Middle East.
Bangladesh: On March 7, the suspension of LNG shipments from Qatar forced Petrobangla to ration gas, leading to the shutdown of five fertilizer plants and a loss of ~3 million tons of capacity.
2. Regional Market Transactions and Pricing (FOB)
| Region | Date (2026) | Price / Transaction Details |
|—|—|—|
| Indonesia | March 9 | Granular urea prices rose to $700/ton and above. |
| Vietnam | March 9 | Ca Mau sold 30k–40k tons (April shipment) at $700/ton. |
| Malaysia | March 9 | Petronas offering May shipments at $700–$750/ton. |
| Algeria | March 9 | April supplies nearly exhausted; prices reached $720–$732/ton. |
| Egypt | March 9 | 6,000 tons sold (April shipment) at $700/ton. |
| Nigeria | March 9 | Factory price quoted at $700/ton. |
3. Energy and Geopolitical Factors
Israel-Egypt Gas: On March 6, Israel stopped exporting natural gas to Egypt (which accounts for ~30% of Egypt's gas imports), leading to reduced urea production and factory "wait-and-see" attitudes.
Qatar Force Majeure: On March 4, Qatar declared force majeure due to the war and suspended all previous contracts.
Global Energy Surge: Global gas prices spiked, with European rates hitting their highest increase since March 2022 (+42%). Brent Crude reached $82.37/barrel.
4. Western Markets (EU & US)
European Union: On March 9, the EU cancelled the 6.5% import tariff on urea to support the start of the spring agricultural season.
United States (US Gulf): As of March 9, granular urea prices were quoted at $588–$626/ton FOB and $645–$683/ton CFR.
5. Iran Export Forecast
Iranian urea exports have seen a steady decline due to ongoing regional conflicts:
2024: ~5.75 million tons.
2025: ~4.40 million tons (impacted by June conflict).
2026 (Est.): Expected to fall below 4.00 million tons.
The customs authority has suspended all exports of phosphorus fertilizers/phosphorus-containing fertilizers, including superphosphate of calcium, monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, heavy superphosphate, and other minor varieties of phosphorus-containing fertilizers. Exports of these products have been halted entirely.
Comment: Ammonium chloride (fertilizer / non-fertilizer) is not among the five tax units that were urgently suspended on March 14 and is not currently exported.
First, look at the stop list you gave (fertilizer category)
· 31028000: mixture of urea and ammonium nitrate, water solution
· 31029090: Other mineral nitrogen fertilizers and chemical nitrogen chemical fertilizers
· 31031190: High concentration of calcium superphosphate (P2O5 ≥ 35%)
· 31031900: Other calcium perphosphate
· 31059090: Other Fertilizers
Ammonium chloride is not included in any of the above tax codes.
II. Correct HS code for ammonium chloride (key)
· Ammonium Chloride for Fertilizer: 28271010 (classified under Chapter 28 Inorganic Chemicals, not Chapter 31 Fertilizer)
· Ammonium Chloride for Non-Fertilizers: 28271090
III. Impact of this policy on ammonium chloride
· After March 14: can be reported for regular inspections, normal exits
· A declared outstanding bill: not affected by a "no proof"
· Note: Ammonium chloride is a hazardous chemical when exported to specific countries such as Myanmar, Laos, Afghanistan, etc., and requires a dual-use export licence
Customs have issued an urgent stop order.
3102 8000: aqueous solution of a mixture of urea and ammonium nitrate.
3102 9090: Other mineral and chemical nitrogen fertilizers.
3103 1190: Other superphosphate with a phosphorus pentoxide (P205) content of 35% or more by weight.
3103 1900: Other diammonium phosphate
3105 9090: Other fertilizers
New inspections will not be accepted after March 14.
Applications submitted by March 14th will not be issued a receipt if they have not yet been processed.