Morning. Prospect of China's return to Urea exports, albeit w/ little detail so far, saw Int'l paper values soften $15-$20 before finding support at lower levels. In Nola, nearby urea still firm, Q3 paper bids pulled back, while Q3 DAP traded $640-$635.
AG
May $375//$390 – traded $380
Jun $370//$385 – traded $369
Jul $365//$385
Brazil
May $375//$390
Jun $370//$378 – traded $370, $373
Jul $370//$380 – traded $375
Aug $365//$375 – traded $380, $363
Egypt
May $365//$385
Jun $370//$380
Jul $365//$380
Nola
Phys: Fh May $505; $510; Lh May $465; May $455; Fh June $405, $419 (nr)
Paper:
May $445//$460
Jun $380//$395
Jul $340//$360
Aug $350//$365
Sep $355//$365
Q4 $320//$365
UAN Nola
May $350//$360 -traded $350 (500st)
Jun $315//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$660
Jun $600//$635
Q3 $635//$640 – traded $640, $635
MAP Brazil
May $700//$710
Jun $700//$715
Jul $690//$715
Aug $690//$710
Morning. Int'l paper active y'day, with volatility across AG/Brazil (Jun/Jul), as sentiment 'u-turned' to see values sub-$390 by EOD. Today, rumours of China's return seeing the mkt coming off, with sellers coming in/bids cautious.
AG
May $365//$385 – traded $392, $387
Jun $360//$375 – traded 402, $390, $387
Jul $360//$375 – traded $398, $402
Aug $360//$380 – traded $390 (1k)
Cfr Brazil
May $367//$382
Jun $355//$380 – traded $400, $397
Jul $355//$380 – traded $405, $387.50
Aug/Sep $360//$380
Egypt
May $365//$385
Jun $365//$385 – traded $395s
Q3 $360//$380
Nola
Phys: FH May traded $505-$512, May $465-470; LH May $457
Paper:
May traded $460, $458, $455
Q3 $365//$375 – traded $365
UAN Nola
May $355//$370
Jun $310//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$660
Jun $610//$645
Q3 $585// $615
MAP Brazil
May $700//$710
Jun $700//$715
Jul $690//$710
Aug $690//$710
MIS sold 2*30 Kt at @ $337.2/mt by this tender today
MIS IRAN has sold 2×30,000 t granular urea following a tender that closed 30 April at $337.20/t FOB.
Shipment is early May.
The official price was set at $350/t FOB, a repeat of the previous two weeks despite the lack of interest found at this level in multiple tenders held last week.
According to multiple regional reports, Chinese customs have received fresh guidance on export/CIQ controls effective 1 May.
The NDRC has reportedly expanded the ban on DAP/MAP exports of any volume beyond 1 May as expected, with no end date set at this point. Most market sources are now expecting no return to DAP/MAP exports from China until at least H2 June.
Reports also indicate the customs have shortened CIQ inspection period for TSP, NP and NPS to 10 working days from 40 working days starting from 1 May or 6 May.
The CIQ inspection period for SSP is set to remain at 10 working days.
No decision on the targeted timing for returning to DAP/MAP exports was agreed during the 23–25 April meeting between Chinese suppliers and the CPFIA in Yichang, Hubei. Any announcement on the new timeline for exports returning is unlikely until 1 June onwards.
High international prices had been keeping the doors closed until the spring season is completely clear to shield the domestic market. Some participants indicate the ongoing trade war with the US and the likelihood of China expanding its push for self-sufficiency in crop production is delaying talks with the authorities on when exports will be given the go ahead.
India’s DAP Balancing Act: Can Current Imports and Stocks Hold Through Kharif 2025?
India's DAP import strategy is at a critical juncture.
🚢 Imports fell to just 4.55 Mt in 2024, a steep 26% drop from the three-year average of 6.14 Mt — and far from the 7.3 Mt high of 2022. As a result, opening stock levels for March 2025 have plummeted to 1.2–1.3 Mt, and recent industry sources suggest inventory may now be below 900,000 t.
With seasonal demand for Kharif application surging, India must import around 2.8–3.0 Mt between April and September just to avoid major shortfalls. CRU analysis shows average Kharif-season imports typically hover at 0.58 Mt/month, but to bring stock levels closer to historical norms, that needs to rise to 0.6 Mt/month or higher.
💰Price offers recently breached $700/t CFR, prompting the Department of Fertilizers (DoF) to intervene. Importers were initially guaranteed compensation for subsidy losses, but new guidance caps acceptable purchases at $675/t CFR. Anything higher won’t be covered — a move that may narrow access as global prices remain firm.
Meanwhile, domestic production is under pressure.
⚙️ Output slipped from 4.59 Mt in 2023 to 4.03 Mt in 2024, reversing two years of gains. Q4 2024 saw monthly drops of 6–12%. With no new capacity expected and some players shifting to NP/NPK production for better margins, DAP availability remains tight.
🧾 CRU estimates India imported just 0.5–0.6 Mt in Q1 2025, and at least 3–3.5 Mt more is needed by Q3, followed by 1–1.5 Mt in Q4 to restore comfort in supply and maintain minimum stocks of 1–1.2 Mt.
📊 The data is clear. Delays in procurement could deepen the gap. Indian buyers must act quickly in a competitive global market, where availability is thin and demand is rising.
📣 What do you think? Will the $675/t cap hold? Are we heading toward another tight Kharif season? Let us know how you see the market unfolding.
👇 Drop your thoughts, tag industry peers, and let’s talk DAP.
China's customs will likely shorten the inspection period (CIQ) for TSP, NP and NPS from 40 working days to 10 working days from 6 May, according to multiple Chinese producers and traders.
But the CIQ for SSP will remain at the current 10 working days. China conducts customs inspections for a variety of phosphate, nitrogen and NPK products. Suppliers must report for customs inspections before exporting their products.
All Chinese suppliers have continued to suspend DAP/MAP offers for exports, as they await further clarity on the export policy and availability for this year.
Morning. Nola continued to run higher yday, w/ FH May trading $20 up from Fri to $500. On Int'l, AG paper found value $385 May-Jul, before late buying interest saw Jun trade $10 higher. Spread activity w/ AG also brought Jun Egypt into play at $385.
AG
May $390//$405 – traded $385
Jun $395//$405 – traded $385, $390, $395
Jul $380//$395 – traded $385
Cfr Brazil
May $387//$400
Jun $390//$400 – traded $390
Jul $385//$402
Aug/Sep $385//$400
Egypt
May $385//$400
Jun $385//$395 – traded $385s
Q3 $360//$385
Nola
Phys:. FH May $490-$500; May n/r $460
Paper:
May $440//$450
Jun $380//$395
Jul $340//$360
Aug $345//$355
Sep $355//$360
Q4 $345//$355
UAN Nola
May $355//$370
Jun $310//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$660
Jun $600//$635
Q3 $585// $610
MAP Brazil
May $700//$710
Jun $700//$715
Jul $690//$710
Aug $690//$710
Indian tech urea:
oh! I was hearing offers at $440-460/t cfr for Chinese, and I'd heard AG and possibly Japanese at $520/t cfr – do you know who was at $550/t cfr?
Chinese DAP:
The requirement of loading goods into bulk carriers is that they must be in 1000 kg bags, which is the requirement of bulk carriers.
And 50 kilograms in a 1000-kilogram bag will increase by 5 dollars/ton. Let me check whether the customs allows us to do this.
50kg only
Karachi cfr: usd 693
Laem chabang cfr: usd 673
Chinese Sulphur spot price soared 95 yuan/ ton due to panic of Iranian port explosions
Platts proposes to launch daily CFR India ammonia assessments, refine weekly CFR India ammonia assessment, adjust weekly CFR India ammonia specifications
HIGHLIGHTS
N/A
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, is proposing the launch of daily ammonia assessments for CFR west and east coast India, along with adjustments to the specifications of the established weekly CFR India (FAICA04) ammonia assessment, effective June 27, 2025.
In an effort to provide a more granular view of the world's largest import market for ammonia, Platts is proposing the launch of a daily single number assessment for ammonia CFR East Coast India and CFR West Coast India.
The specifications of the proposed daily assessments are detailed below:
Assessment name CFR West Coast India CFR East Coast India
Quality Anhydrous ammonia, which is around 82% Nitrogen and is stored and transported as a liquid under pressure at around -33 degree Celsius, with no restrictions on carbon intensity Anhydrous ammonia, which is around 82% Nitrogen and is stored and transported as a liquid under pressure at around -33 degree Celsius, with no restrictions on carbon intensity
Quantity Basis 25,000 mt Basis 25,000 mt
Basis and location Spot. Basis location Kandla Spot. Basis location Paradeep
Timing Delivery one to six weeks forward Delivery one to six weeks forward
Frequency Daily Daily
Appears in Fertecon Daily Fertecon Daily
Unit of measurement $/mt $/mt
Timestamp 16:30 London close, published according to the London publishing calendar 16:30 London close, published according to the London publishing calendar
It is also proposed that the specifications of the existing weekly CFR India ammonia assessment (FAICA04) are adjusted to align with those of the proposed daily CFR East Coast India and CFR West Coast India ammonia assessments.
Under this alignment, the contract element of the weekly CFR India assessment would be removed, and the quantity specification would be narrowed to a basis of 25,000 mt.
In addition, Platts would standardize the relationship between the proposed daily single-number assessments and the established weekly CFR India low-high assessment. The weekly CFR India assessment is currently published as a range with a low and high value. Under this proposal, the weekly range would consistently reflect the lowest and highest of the daily CFR East Coast India and CFR West Coast India assessments published over the preceding week.
The proposed adjustments to the specifications of the established weekly CFR India assessment are detailed below:
Current Proposed
Assessment name CFR India (FAICA04) CFR India (FAICA04)
Quality Anhydrous ammonia, which is around 82% Nitrogen and is stored and transported as a liquid under pressure at around -33 degree Celsius Anhydrous ammonia, which is around 82% Nitrogen and is stored and transported as a liquid under pressure at around -33 degree Celsius, with no restrictions on carbon intensity
Quantity Minimum 4,000 mt Basis 25,000 mt
Basis and location Contract and spot. Countries covered: India. The assessment covers deliveries to both west and east coasts. Discharge ports: All ammonia-importing ports/terminals in India. Published prices include known/reported CFR prices obtained from suppliers/buyers/traders. The price range is represented by a mix of spot CFR prices at the time of purchase, tender results at the time of award (not the time of shipment), as well as prices of the most recent cargoes delivered to India. Spot. Basis locations Kandla and Paradeep. The weekly CFR India range assessment reflects the lowest and the highest of the daily CFR West Coast India and CFR East Coast India assessments published over the course of the preceding week.
Timing Product to be shipped up to six weeks forward Delivery one to six weeks forward
Frequency Weekly Weekly
Appears in Ammonia Market Report Ammonia Market Report
Unit of measurement $/mt $/mt
Timestamp 16:30 London close, published according to the London publishing calendar 16:30 London close, published according to the London publishing calendar
The proposed daily CFR East Coast India and CFR West Coast India ammonia assessments would appear in the Platts Fertecon Daily PDF and also be available via Platts Connect.
The established weekly CFR India range assessment would continue to appear in the Ammonia Market Report each Thursday and also be available via Platts Connect.
50,000 BULK PHOSPHATE – QASIM PAKISTAN/QINGDAO & WEIFANG – 5,000 C/12,000 C – 10/20 MAY
Engro Rock to china for Abby
International paper markets remained mostly flat to firm this week, with limited activity. Brazil urea traded May $387, June at $385, and August at $383. Amsul traded 182 for May. The NOLA markets continued on an upward trend.
May AG $380/$385
Jun AG $375/$385
Jul AG $375/$385
May Egypt $375/$390
Jun Egypt $375/$390
Jul Egypt $370/$385
May Brazil $385/$390
Jun Brazil $383/$387
Jul Brazil $380/$387
Aug Brazil $380/$385
May MAP Brazil $700/$715
Jun MAP Brazil $700/$715
Jul MAP Brazil $700/$715
Aug MAP Brazil $700/$715
May AS Brazil $180/$187
Jun AS Brazil $180/$187
Jul AS Brazil $180/$190
Stateside: Urea Nola
May Indic. $438/443
Jun Indic. $375/384
Jul Indic. $350/375
DAP Nola
May Indic $640/670
Jun. Indic $640/680
Jul. Indic $640/680
UAN
May Indic. $342/355
Jun. Indic. $340/355
Jul. Indic. $340/355
Look at the trump affect, NOLA up, globe down