Morning. Further gains in nearby Nola y'day; Apr phys up to $480, FH May into mid-$460s (+$5-$7), while May paper traded either side of $440. Int'l paper focused on Brazil w/ activity across May/Jun/Aug in $380-$387 range.
AG
May $385//$390
Jun $370//$390
Jul $365//$385
Brazil
May $385//$390 – traded $387
Jun $375//$390 – traded $385s, $380 (500t)
Jul $375//$395
Aug $385//$395 – traded $383
Egypt
May $385//$400
Jun $372//$395
Q3 $360//$390
Nola
Phys: Apr traded $480, $477. FH May $465, $465. May $440
Paper:
May $438//$445 – traded $438, $440, $442
Jun $378//$385 – traded $390, $385
Jul $355//$370
Aug $345//$355
Sep $355//$360
Q4 $345//$355
UAN Nola
May $355//$365
Jun $310//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $625//$640
Jun $590//$610
Q3 $585// $610
MAP Brazil
May $695//$710
Jun $690//$715
Jul $690//$710
Aug $690//$710
-UREA PRICES THIS WEEK WERE SUPPORTED BY SURGING IMPORTS TO THE USA/NOLA FOR THE SPRING SEASON
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES WERE STABLE AND TAKING A BREATHER EXCEPT FOR THE US/NOLA WHERE PRICES ARE GOING UP FOR THE SPRING SEASON
-POTASH PRICES SAW MODEST GAINS IN BRAZIL THIS WEEK AND GLOBALLY PRICES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS AHEAD DUE TO STRONG DEMAND AND LIMITED SUPPLY
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE UNDER CONTINUED PRESSURE WITH ROBUST PRODUCTION AND MUTED DEMAND WITH THE UPCOMING TAMPA SETTLEMENT PRICE EXPECTED TO BE GIVING FUTURE DIRECTION
Urea barge prices in the US this week have escalated with prompt shipment claiming the highest price but May values also rising. The perceived shortage of urea has finally encouraged buyers to step in daily and chase up the price. Imports were always down but this never seemed to be enough to generate a price rally. As the season gets underway and urea supply is further tightened by some switching from UAN which is short, the market has climbed. Increased corn acres are also adding fuel to the fire. This has helped to support North African values which were expected to fade away as European interest faded. There is still demand from Europe helping to fill out the Egyptian line up and this, combined with a pull on tonnes for North America, has helped to push the price to $395/t FOB. There seems to be a general squeeze on supply for those looking for products to go west as well as east. Nigeria has suffered production issues at Dangote and a lack of fresh cargo coming to the market has shortened what traders saw as the supply availability for May. The Middle East is comfortable with a good line up for India and Australia continuing to pick off cargo adding to the premiums achievable. No new prices have been seen in the Middle East but Indonesia saw a price of $402.50/t FOB paid for a May cargo which sailed way above the owner’s estimate just below $390/t FOB. The cargo is expected to go to Australia. There are reports of a second cargo trading out of an availability of 140,000 t. Baltic producers are comfortable it seems with shipments to Latin America and India to execute. Granular and prilled values are put at around $350-355/t FOB with some exceptions higher and lower. Brazil is largely sticking to the sidelines avoiding the stampede in the US which they hope will be short lived.
The outlook for prices is firm in the very short term. A prolonged absence by India could see values come under pressure as we go into May.
Most price benchmarks for DAP and MAP were stable as activity slowed following the steep price increases of recent weeks, though further price climbs were evident in the US and higher prices still seem likely across the globe in the coming weeks due to tight availability. US NOLA barge prices climbed further as buyers struggled to source, with MAP now at its highest level since October 2022. US import options have been limited by countervailing duties (CVD) placed on supply from Morocco and Russia, while tariffs proposed by the Trump administration are likely to further limit import options and/or drive up US pricing. Midwest prices also climbed, despite affordability being at its worst levels since 2008. Hope for China's imminent return to the export market grew dimmer still this week, with no news on export quotas emerging during a CPFIA meeting this week in Hubei. The lack of China supply is keeping global availability tight, with the country's Q1 DAP/MAP exports down to a 23-year low at 111,046 t, marking a 54% decrease from 2024 Q1. The volume compares with 1.5 Mt as recently as 2021 Q1 and 1.17 Mt in 2023 Q1. India created confusion in the market after the Department of Fertilizers instructed importers not to purchase above $675/t CFR, even though three deals had already concluded in the $690-700/t CFR range. Business in India has halted, with NFL scrapping its MoU enquiry for 100,000 t given a gap of over $30/t between the sole offer and the "ceiling price". Another reason for tighter DAP availability is additional demand from Ethiopia's EABC, which this week closed its latest DAP tender, receiving offers at much higher prices than in its previous session. The importer issued a wave of DAP tenders over the past several months, marking a pivot from NPS to DAP and soaking up DAP supply in a market that would have been relatively tight anyway. EABC typically imports more than 1 Mt/year NPS from Morocco. The buyer is understood to have secured around 660,000-720,000 t DAP so far, with a 55,000 t cargo from China in 2024 Q4 and the rest this year. Morocco's FOB price for DAP increased further this week on latest business to Europe, though overall fresh deals were fewer than in recent weeks. The price is now at its highest level since March 2023. Elsewhere, global NPK prices were again stable to higher this month, as sharp increases in DAP/MAP prices continued to add support and demand in India remains strong ahead of the Kharif season.
Prices are expected to increase further over the coming weeks, as demand picks up while supply remains exceptionally tight. Affordability concerns persist, but buyers have limited options. Any reversal in direction now seems unlikely until at least mid-Q2, and that will depend on supply improving and buyers becoming more comfortable.
Potash prices remained largely unchanged this week, with modest increases in Brazil and China, though the global market still carries bullish momentum, primarily supported by tight supply and strong demand. Brazilian potash prices saw a modest increase this week, rising by $5/t to $350/t CFR, supported by higher sales for June loading. June sales, though limited, were reported at $355-360/t CFR, an increase from the previous week’s range of $350-360/t CFR. July offers were reported even higher at $360-370/t CFR, although the volume of offers has cooled, as producers may be holding back, anticipating higher prices in the weeks ahead. With strong demand continuing for the 2025-2026 soybean season, some market participants expect prices to slow in July when buying concludes. Pupuk Indonesia generated significant attention this week after its $330/t CFR counteroffer on its MOP tender was rejected by all suppliers. Offers from suppliers ranged between $360- 400/t CFR, and this substantial price gap is expected to lead to the scrapping of the tender, though this has not been confirmed yet. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian potash prices remained flat week-on-week for the second consecutive week, despite suggestions of higher prices. Standard MOP prices held at their highest levels since June 2023, while granular prices remained at their highest since January
2024. Given the limited offers and tight supply amid strong demand, prices are expected to continue rising in the weeks ahead. Granular MOP prices in the US saw limited movement as field activity picked up towards the end of the week. At NOLA, prices dropped $3/st to $312-320/st FOB. In China, domestic prices saw a slight uptick this week, following the stoppage of the national potash reserve release. However, the price increase was tempered by the limited demand, as the spring application has recently concluded. Although approximately 1.1 Mt have been released into the market in recent months, overall availability remains constrained. Market players are now awaiting the next China potash contract, which is expected to bring back consistent volumes into circulation. In the interim, the current corn planting season requires only minimal application of MOP, contributing to the subdued demand. The India 180-day potash contract is still pending, with negotiations yet to commence. Market players are widely expecting China to settle its contract first, which would then guide India's discussions. For now, the Indian market remains well-stocked, with no immediate buying pressure. Despite the approaching application season, buyers are comfortable drawing down existing inventories in the absence of a new contract. Other key markets are closely monitoring the progression of the contracts, as it is expected to provide a fresh input into the market and establish the floor price in a bullish environment.
Potash prices are expected to rise in the coming weeks, particularly in Brazil and Southeast Asia, as tight supply from production output cuts in H2 supports price increases amid strong demand in key regions.
Ammonia prices on both sides of the Suez once again enjoyed very little in the way of upside support with regional and global supply continuing to outweigh the pockets of demand seen in Europe and Morocco. All eyes should now turn to Tampa, where Yara and Mosaic are expected to settle May’s contract – likely at yet another discount to the prior month – within the next week. However, questions persist as to whether 10% duties on Trinidadian ammonia will be factored into the May settlement, with clarity awaited. For the moment, the Caribbean FOB price, which was revised downwards last week to account for tariff costs, remains in place, with the rationale behind this decision explained in this markets item. Regional availability remains healthy, with cargoes continuing to move out of both Trinidad and the US Gulf at a steady rate. That said, news is yet to emerge of a second lifting from the 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility in Texas. Across the Atlantic, Trammo sold a June cargo to OCP at $400/t CFR Morocco, a figure $15/t below last business to the phosphate major and indicative of the increasingly bearish sentiment seen west of Suez. Further along the Mediterranean coast in Algeria, no new spot business was heard, though FOBs continue to inch downward with producers seemingly facing difficulties in maintaining current price targets. Algerian prices continue to shape – and erode – delivered values into NW Europe, where CF remains a prominent spot buyer. In Poland, Grupa Azoty will receive an Algerian spot consignment courtesy of Trammo early next week. East of Suez, Middle East supply remains healthy amid steady output from the major regional producers. However, availability will be partially impacted by a seven-week turnaround set to be commenced by Ma’aden in early May, with the producer’s May export line-up reduced to a still-decent 125,000 t as a result. Around 40% of that total will head to India, where demand appears to have taken a backseat for the time being, with news awaited of an award – if any – in FACT’s 22 April purchase tender for 1H June material. Further east, Fertiglobe purchased a Kaltim cargo from Mitsui for delivery to Europe from Indonesia, while Mitsui picked up spot material of its own in Malaysia ahead of a delivery to Morocco. In northern Asia, fresh spot demand remains absent in South Korea and Taiwan, China, although contract prices remain are yet to undergo any further declines. A recent influx of cargoes into China appears to have precipitated a small number of re-export cargoes from Zhanjiang, although general market activity remains muted.
Ammonia prices are unlikely to gain support heading into May, with the upcoming Tampa settlement likely to shape the extent to which prices decline over the coming weeks.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
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www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
LONDON (ICIS)—In Nola, a urea barge has traded at $505/short ton FOB. This is the first time Nola has crossed the 500 mark since November 2022, according to ICIS data.
China exports :
1. Yes I can provide N18.
2. As for the export of phosphate fertilizer, the state only banned the export of major production plants, but not others. Not only are we exporting DAP, but many others are exporting this product and urea.
Petronas just came out for a cargo loading NH3 (MGC) Malaysia 21-23 June for India discharge – long shot but if you have anything open there for Nh3 then pleased to hear!!
Current US fertilizer affordability ranks second only to the 2021/22 season for the worst level since tracking began in 2014. What’s been driving the recent deterioration in affordability?
Phosphates, with their persistently poor affordability, continue to play a significant role. However, urea has worsened the situation over the past 30 days. Urea prices in the Midwest surged by $90/st during this period, reaching their highest level since the end of 2022. As a result, urea affordability is now at its worst since the 2011/12 season.
Elevated phosphate and urea prices have pushed the Iowa fertilizer basket $62/st higher than it was at this point last year. Meanwhile, new crop corn futures are $0.16 per bushel lower than a year ago, adding further pressure to affordability.
Interestingly, potash has emerged as the lone bright spot among these three, especially considering it was once a major tariff concern.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 16% capacity.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 34+ tons.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101046530-73398c7f28ca' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Inventory update*
Levels at 35% capacity.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 7+ tons.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1500534314209-a25ddb2bd429' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Inventory update*
Levels at 38% capacity.