Here’s a concise summary of the potash market situation:
• Price Increase: Potash prices have risen notably since the start of the year, initially driven by concerns over tariffs (now lifted), which spurred early buying.
• Supply Constraints: Production cutbacks of around 1.3 million tonnes across two producers are expected to impact Q2–Q3, contributing to tightening supply.
• Buyer Behavior: Anticipating further price increases, buyers have accelerated purchases to secure supply.
• Affordability: Potash is still relatively affordable compared to other fertilizers, though that is expected to deteriorate in the short term.
• Market Sentiment: These combined factors—early buying, supply cuts, and rising costs—have created a bullish market sentiment, supporting higher prices.
Would you like a comparison chart of fertilizer price trends (potash vs. others)?
Here’s a concise summary of the current situation in the urea market:
• Volatility & Tightness: Urea has seen volatile but firm pricing recently. Several major tenders (India buying 900,000 tonnes, Ethiopia 250,000 tonnes) pulled significant supply from Russia, the Middle East, Egypt, and Asia, tightening availability through May.
• Regional Dynamics:
• Egypt: Strong market due to high demand.
• Europe: Initially uninterested, but a price rally pulled in some demand.
• Nigeria: Production issues limited supply, although Dangote has resumed, pricing is uncertain.
• Australia & Asia: Took cargoes from the Middle East, pushing up prices (e.g., $402.50 for May).
• NOLA Rally (U.S. Gulf): Prices surged due to tight supply:
• Peaked at $555 (loaded), with May around $510, June discounted to $465.
• Rally likely unsustainable once demand drops.
• China Uncertainty:
• News emerged that China may resume exports from May to September, aiming to control volume and prices.
• The market has since stalled, awaiting clarity—talk of 2 to 4 million tonnes of potential exports.
• This uncertainty has effectively paralysed global trading.
• Buyer Positioning:
• India: Can afford to wait; end-May inventories projected at over 8 million tonnes—low vs. last year, but strong on a five-year average.
• Brazil: Also not in a hurry to buy.
In short, the market is tight but currently paused, awaiting clarity on Chinese exports before the next move. Would you like a visual timeline or price trend chart to go with this summary?
Here’s a clear summary of the key points from your statement:
• Phosphates: There’s significant momentum and optimism in the phosphate market. Prices are rising, driven by strong demand and tighter global supply dynamics.
• Sulfur Prices: Currently high, with expectations of a slight downward correction in the coming months. However, prices are still forecasted to stay above historical levels due to:
• Limited new sulfur supply projects until the late 2020s,
• Stronger demand from the metals and fertilizer sectors.
• Impact on Phosphate Margins:
• Margins were strong initially as phosphate (MAP) prices started from a high base.
• Rising sulfur costs have compressed those margins somewhat, but this has been partly balanced by falling ammonia prices.
• Major global phosphate producers are still achieving healthy margins at current MAP price levels.
• China: The sulfur price surge has notably squeezed margins for Chinese phosphate producers. This has influenced their export strategies, causing delays and indirectly supporting higher global phosphate prices.
Would you like a visual chart to illustrate the price trends and margin effects?
“Urea: can be delivered in May, with a price limit of not less than xxx, the quantity is not fixed, divided into monthly plans”
https://www.bonextrading.com
Looks like this is a new company representing metafrax and Salavat.
Getting fertim details – to get access to tech urea plant in Russia
Morning. Growing confidence of China's return to mkt, albeit w/ no firm detail so far, saw Int'l Urea paper values soften y'day to $360+/- (AG/Brz/Egy). In Nola, May Phys traded to $510 (+$35 from Mon low) before 'easing back' to $500.
AG
May $377//$390
Jun $353//$365 – traded $360
Jul $350//$365 – Q3 traded $358
Cfr Brazil
May $372//$388
Jun $355//$370
Jul $355//$365 – traded $360
Aug $350//$368 – traded $367 (500t)
Egypt
May $367//$380
Jun $357//$363 – traded $361, $360
Jul $350//$365
Nola
Phys: May $490, $495, $500, $505, $510, $500; Fh Jun $460, $465
Paper:
May $495//$505
Jun $400//$420
Jul $345//$365
Aug $345//$365
Sep $345//$365
Q4 $320//$360
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$660
Jun $635//$660
Q3 $650//$660
Q4 $630//$655
Rumors: Today NDRC is having meeting with CNOOCO, CNAMPGC, Sinochem, export matters have been determined, the program may be phased, batches, segments, quota system to manage exports, may be a total of 4 million tons.Guess the storage enterprises 1.3 million, producers 2.7 million.
container wave is heading from Asia to Europe – and it could hit supply chains hard.
According to Xeneta, container ships with the capacity of 500,000 containers (TEU) departed Asia for Europe in just one week. That’s an increase of nearly 50% compared to the previous record levels during the COVID-19 disruptions in 2021.
This peak is enormous.
Why is this happening?
➡️ Rising global trade tensions may be pushing more Asian goods toward Europe.
➡️ Restructuring of global shipping networks is contributing to a synchronized arrival of large volumes.
Are European ports ready?
In short: probably not.
In the past, such capacity spikes led to major congestion, port bottlenecks, and severely disrupted supply chains across the whole european continent. If history repeats itself, we could again see:
Delayed shipments, rising transport costs and fragile inbound and outbound logistics
These vessels are set to arrive in June.
Morning. China rumours picking up momentum, bringing softer tone to Int'l paper with activity on Jun Egypt, Aug Brazil so far today. Nearby Nola still firm yday with May paper trading $13 up from Fri.
AG
May $368//$385
Jun $355//$367
Jul $350//$370
Cfr Brazil
May $372//$387
Jun $360//$370
Jul $360//$370
Aug $355//$375 – traded $367 (500t)
Egypt
May $365//$385
Jun $355//$365 – traded $361
Jul $350//$370
Nola
Phys: May traded $475, $476, $477
Paper:
May $477//$490 – traded $483
Jun $395//$405
Jul $345//$370
Aug $355//$370
Sep $355//$375
Q4 $320//$365
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$660
Jun $600//$635
Q3 $640//$645
Q4 $630//$655
MAP Brazil
May $695//$710
Jun $700//$715
Jul $690//$715
Aug $690//$710
Morning. Talk of China's potential return to export saw Int'l Urea paper values drop $20-$30 latter part of last week, w/ Jun Egypt the focus of activity on Fri. In Nola, nearby phys saw daily gains – Loaded/prompt barges attracting large premium, but Full May also finding support.
AG
May $370//$388
_[May traded $392-$380 range last week]_
Jun $362//$380
_[Jun $402 – $369 range l/w]_
Jul $355//$370
_[Jul $385-$402 range l/w]_
Cfr Brazil
May $375//$390
Jun $360//$375
_[Jun $400-$370 range l/w]_
Jul $370//$378
_[Jul $405-$375 range l/w]_
Aug $365//$380
_[Aug $380-$363 range l/w]_
Egypt
May $370//$385
Jun $362//$372 – traded $370, $369, $368.50 Fri
_[Jun $395-$368.50 range l/w]_
Jul $355//$370
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $523, $530, $535; May $473, $470, $468;
Paper:
May $465//$475 – traded $470
Jun $395//$405
Jul $345//$375
Aug $350//$375
Sep $355//$3675
Q4 $320//$365
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $340//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $635//$660
Jun $600//$635
Q3 $640//$645
Q4 $630//$655
MAP Brazil
May $695//$710
Jun $700//$715
Jul $690//$715
Aug $690//$710
https://www.feedstuffs.com/agribusiness-news/bunge-selling-north-america-corn-milling-business
Here's a quick snapshot:
🚀 Urea's on a tear
US Gulf values surged as high as $522/st FOB this week – up more than $100/st since early April – driven by booming spring demand, decreased April imports, and struggling logistics in the gulf. The surprise (expected) return of Chinese exports starting in May has only added to the chaos.
🌽 Interior prices explode
Midwest and Southern plains urea hit the highest levels since 2022, with the Midwest assessed at $555-585/st FOB. Fieldwork is now widespread, and reports of 95+ million corn acres are helping keep values elevated.
📈 Phosphates stay firm
Summer fill activity is starting earlier than normal, with DAP and MAP holding strong. Forward trades suggest a typical summer price reset may not be in the cards this year.
📉 Potash holds steady, and ammonia softened slightly on a $20/t drop in Tampa contract values.
With a reduced crop and a strong ruble, Russia has all the interest to hope that by escalating the war then the price of wheat rises too. We were far from from a peace deal even before Trump but now we are even more remote from peace.
-THE UREA MARKET WAS JOLTED THIS WEEK WITH PERSISTENT RUMORS OF CHINA RESUMING UREA EXPORTS AS EARLY AS MAY. IN RESPONSE BOTH PAPER AND PHYSICAL PRICES DROPPED SHARPLY
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS COME TO A STANDSTILL BUT PRICES ARE HOLDING DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABILITY FROM CHINESE PRODUCERS
-POTASH PRICES REMAIN STABLE TO FIRM AND PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BOTH IN BRAZIL AND SE ASIA
-GLOBAL AMMONIA MARKETS ARE DEVOID OF SPOT ACTIVITY AND THE TAMPA MAY CONTRACT SETTLEMENT AT USD 415 PMT CFR IS USD 155 PMT LESS THAN THE 2024 HIGH OF USD 570 PMT
The international urea market, bar US/NOLA , which still is showing strong demand and robust prices for prompt deliveries, was jolted this week with persistent rumors of China entering the export market some time in May. According to reports albeit not confirmed, the Chinese government agency NDRC and CNAMPGC have agreed on a quota system for exports starting in May and ending in September. The quota allocation for urea exports will be given to companies that have undertaken commercial reserve commitments. The total volume is unclear but it is expected that between 3-4 million MT will be made available for export. The market reacted violently to this rumor with paper position liquidated with MAY Middle East urea paper down USD 10 PMT and JUNE Middle East paper down just over USD 20 MT. JUNE Brazil CFR paper dropped USD 24 PMT and JULY Brazil CFR dropped USD 12.50 PMT. On the physical side it has been reported that Iran sold 2-3 large granular urea cargoes at USD 337.20 PMT FOB, down from USD 350 PMT FOB. US NOLA first half May barge prices at USD 520 FOB short ton is 38% up since Trump signed the tariffs scheme on April 2nd!
Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) is understood, not confirmed by any party, to have bought four lots of 52,000 MT of granular urea unders its April 23rd tender. Samsung was awarded one lot at USD 416 PMT FOB Egypt and Midgulf International one lot at USD 405 PMT from Sohar, Oman.
Middle East producers are still trying to hold at USD 395-400 PMT FOB for next available exports although this price is coming under pressure with the Chinese news on exporting. Qatar Energy held a tender for 30,000 MT of prilled urea and the price is said to be at USD 392 PMT FOB. Destination has yet to be announced but possibly Sri Lanka or the Philippines.
On another note, Turkey Q1 2025 imports were 939,000 MT, down 13% or 135,000 MT Y/Y impacted by production problems in Iran. Volumes from Oman/Iran declined by over half to 294,000 MT, down 321,000 MT Y/Y. SE Asia availability of urea is now very limited with Pupuk Indonesia tender resulting in sales of 140 KT at USD 402.50 PMT FOB. Producers in both Brunei and Malaysia are said to be sold out until June.
The outlook for the urea market now hangs in the balance on confirmed news coming out of China after the May 1st celebrations which will end on the 5th of May. Obviously, regular prilled urea markets in SE Asia like the Philippines and South Korea may take great delight in China resuming urea export.
Processed phosphate availability is still tight and as a result the MAP price in Brazil is now touching above USD 700 PMT CFR. OCP of Morocco is said to have raised its MAP offer to USD 740 PMT CFR with no apparent sale concluded at this point. Poor farmer affordability in Brazil due to low agricultural commodities prices is providing resistance. Adding to the tight supply of processed phosphate, DAP/MAP/NPK/NPS exports from Saudi Arabia dropped 5.1% in the first two months of 2025 to 817,528 MT from 861,220 Y/Y. Exports of DAP dropped 21% but MAP exports increased 27%. Adding to this is reports from China that the government has banned exports of DAP/MAP from May 1st with no end date announced. Uncertainty over when China's might return to the export market persisted, though the outlook appeared more positive this week, with sources suggesting the DAP and MAP export quota allocation is under discussion and expected to be released by the middle of May, with further details expected to be confirmed after China's Labour Day holidays. The lack of China supply is the key driver of tight global availability, with the country's Q1 DAP/MAP exports down to a 23-year low at 111,046 t, marking a 54% decrease from 2024 Q1. The volume compares with 1.5 Mt as recently as 2021 Q1 and 1.17 Mt in 2023 Q1. Market sources also reported China is planning to reduce the export inspection time for TSP and NP from at least 40 working days to 10 working days. Previously, local sources suggested that the strong exports of NP and SSP in 2025 Q1 had been noticed by the government and that control of NP exports was under consideration. From January to March, China exported around 676,000 t SSP, which was up 52% year on year, with 81% of this volume going to Brazil. NP fertilizer exports were around 615,000 t, which was eight times higher than the same period in 2024, with 51% to Brazil. This comes after SSP and NP exports reached record highs in 2024.
Prices are expected to increase further over the coming weeks, as demand picks up while supply remains exceptionally tight. Affordability concerns persist, but buyers have limited options. Any reversal in direction now seems unlikely until at least June, and that will depend on supply improving and buyers becoming more comfortable.
Potash prices remained largely stable across key global spot markets this week, with sentiment and fundamentals still supportive as the market awaits the outcome of Pupuk Indonesia’s tender. Southeast Asia continues to be a key focus in the potash market this week, as Pupuk Indonesia has yet to award its MOP tender, which closed on 14 April. Offers from suppliers were considered too high, ranging from $360-363/t CFR, with one reaching $400/t CFR. Pupuk has since submitted two counterbids at $330/t CFR and $338/t CFR, both of which were rejected. This is a critical moment for the market, as the outcome could impact both Southeast Asian prices and the ongoing China contract negotiations. If the tender is awarded at this level, it could reinforce the bullish sentiment. The Brazilian MOP market saw little price movement this week although June volumes became tighter, with another producer sold out for this delivery period. Offers for June were reported between $355-360/t CFR, with one producer offering as high as $370/t CFR. Prices are expected to continue rising in the coming months as demand remains strong for the 2025-2026 soybean season.
The potash market is expected to remain firm, especially in Brazil and Southeast Asia. The market awaits Pupuk Indonesia’s tender results, which are anticipated by market players to either be awarded at $360/t CFR or scrapped.
In a quiet market week devoid of much other major business and characterised by a continued lack of spot appetite on both sides of the Suez, it was little surprise to see the Tampa settlement price for May decline by another $20/t. The $415/t CFR figure agreed by Yara and Mosaic means the benchmark has now declined by $155/t on the 2024-high of $570/t CFR fixed in December. Sources also confirmed that the May prices was agreed on a duty-free basis, meaning the buy-side is responsible for incurring the 10% duty on US imports of Trinidadian ammonia, with Mosaic expected to settle this in a separate transaction with the US government, assuming they continue to source sporadic cargoes from the Caribbean. Prices there were also revised this week to reflect the latest news from Tampa.
Prices should continue to trend to the downside, with little demand-side support envisaged for May. The rate of decline may be mitigated by planned curtailments east of Suez.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
WeChat: stein0813
Line: steinh
www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
Some of the key takeaways from the sessions:
– fertilizer imports into the Black Sea region stabilized at 10.7 million tons in 2024, following the disruption in 2022;
– 98% of regional imports are concentrated in Turkiye, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, highlighting strong localized demand hubs;
– Turkiye consumes approximately 7.5 million tons of fertilizers annually, ranking 6th globally by import volume;
– despite growing local investments, Turkiye remains heavily reliant on urea imports (~3 million tons/year);
– Uzbekistan and Georgia are emerging as competitive suppliers via the Middle Corridor and CKU rail links;
– fertigation demand in EMEA is rising sharply, driven by chronic water shortages and soil degradation;
– adoption of #inhibitors is expanding rapidly in Turkiye and the Black Sea region;
– producers and distributors increasingly see inhibitors and #enhancers as strategic levers to boost margins by offering differentiated, high-value fertilizer solutions;
– demand for pH-lowering solid fertilizers and #biostimulants is accelerating, particularly in saline-affected Mediterranean and southern European regions;
– fertilizer supply remains fragile into 2025, with gas price volatility, export quotas and seasonal restocking driving upside risks;
– fertilizer trade growth is set to continue, with Türkiye reinforcing its role as a key East-West agricultural supply hub;
– new US tariffs are diverting Russian, Algerian, and Nigerian fertilizer volumes toward European and Black Sea markets;
– rising competition from Middle Eastern and African producers is expected to pressure phosphate and NPK prices in Europe;