Did anybody hear about fresh bookings of Ukr corn by Turkey in the aftermath of 0% import tax for 1 Mio tonnes?
Philip Sunderland Hello and great to hear your thoughts!
Stock levels of sulphur in China are now around 2m t, with 44% at river ports and only 32% in the south. My reading is that the south is still sitting at a relatively low level of stocks, but river port levels are pretty decent. To me, the 2m t mark is now quite solid, especially considering China has been producing more sulphur locally, reducing its reliance on port stocks compared with previous years.
I don’t see Iran’s impact on the global market as significant, but the impact on China is more noticeable. Chinese buyers have been purchasing more—especially now that CFR levels are considered high—from Iran, Turkmenistan, etc., mostly loaded out of Bandar Abbas. The fear of losing this supply prompted the rise in CNY values on April 26/27. However, with reports of some cargoes already loading again and the delay potentially lasting just a few weeks, the market cooled down almost immediately on April 28.
I also agree there's a level of speculation involved. Sulphur stocks in traders’ hands are definitely more expensive now compared with six months or even a year ago. I see it being in their interest to see a higher CNY value for better margins.
Love having your input!
Morning. Int'l paper took a pause in activity y'day. Nola Urea phys continued to move higher loaded through LH May, while May paper traded +$15 into low-$470s. On DAP, Q3 paper active again w/ values edging slightly higher ($640-$644).
AG
May $377//$390
Jun $363//$385
Jul $360//$380
Brazil
May $375//$390
Jun $370//$378
Jul $370//$380
Aug $365//$375
Egypt
May $372//$385
Jun $367//$378
Jul $360//$380
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $522; Fh May $515, $520. May $470, $480; LH May $480
Paper:
May $465//$480 – traded $460, $472
Jun $395//$405 – traded $400
Jul $345//$375
Aug $350//$375
Sep $355//$3675
Q4 $320//$365
UAN Nola
May $350//$360
Jun $315//$350
Aug $250//$290
Sep $255//$295
DAP Nola
May $638//$660
Jun $641//$647
Q3 $644//$650 – traded $640-$644
MAP Brazil
May $690//$710
Jun $700//$715
Jul $690//$715
Aug $690//$710
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $15/mt increase.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 32+ tons.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 7% capacity.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 21.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1500534314209-a25ddb2bd429' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 7.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101178521-c1a9136a3b41' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 40.