The international price of phosphate ore is mainly stable, Chinese enterprises are making orderly inquiries, the main import enterprises are steadily processing inquiries and procurement, non-mainstream import enterprises are holding back, and downstream enterprises are being cautious when purchasing Egyptian products.
The price of Egyptian ore with a grade of 26-27% arriving in China is between 80-90 USD per ton.
The quoted prices from Jordan are relatively high, ranging from 100 USD per ton to the port of destination.
There are many quotations for Batan ore, and the CIF transaction prices for some ore with grades of 28-30 are $95-$98/ton, with negotiations ongoing; the majority of the ore is being shipped to Guangdong, Shandong, and the Yangtze River basin.
In the past two years, the sales area of northern phosphorus mines has expanded rapidly, and the amount flowing into the Yangtze River basin and Guangxi has increased significantly year on year; the southern market has a relatively high acceptance rate for northern mines, and many downstream enterprises purchase northern mines together with local low-grade mines to use in blending; the proportion of northern mines exported to the south has been increasing, and there is still room for further expansion.
In January to May 2025, China's total imports of phosphate rock amounted to 587,100 tons (approximately 12 shipments, including around 6 shipments from Egypt, around 5 shipments from Jordan, and around 1 shipment of Batan containerized cargo), of which 369,000 tons were unprocessed phosphate rock and 124 tons were processed phosphate rock.
In May, China imported a total of 218,000 tons of phosphorus ore, including 218,000 metric tons of unprocessed phosphorus ore and 2 metric tons of processed phosphorus ore.
According to the import unit price, the average price of imported phosphorus ore in May was 91 USD/ton (actual transaction prices are subject to market conditions, as the volume of imported ground-up phosphorus ore is relatively small and thus does not serve as a primary reference point for pricing).
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of positive demand indicators, while also treading cautiously ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to decide the group's August output policy.
Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.6%, at $67.11 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 34 cents higher, or up around 0.5%, at $65.45 a barrel.
The gains were likely due to supportive data from a private-sector survey in China, which showed factory activity returned to expansion in June, said Randall Rothenberg, a risk intelligence expert at U.S. oil brokerage Liquidity Energy.
Expectations that Saudi Arabia will raise its August crude oil prices for buyers in Asia to a four-month high as well as firm premiums for Russian ESPO Blend crude oil were also supporting the notion of robust demand, Rothenberg said.
Oil's gains were kept in check by expectations that the OPEC+ group will boost its August crude oil output by an amount similar to the outsized hikes agreed in May, June, and July. Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6.
"All eyes will be on OPEC+'s decision over the weekend, when the group is expected to add another 411,000 bpd of production in an effort to gain more market share, primarily over the U.S. shale producers," StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes told clients.
Besides gaining market share from U.S. shale producers, which pumped oil at a record pace in April, according to official data released on Monday, the group has also been trying to punish overproducing members.
OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, one of the world's 10 largest oil producers, raised oil production last month to match an all-time high, a source familiar with the data told Reuters on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC+ group, raised its June crude oil exports to the fastest rate in a year, data from Kpler showed.
"These exports are flooding out even faster than the OPEC+ deal implies during the summer, when peak domestic demand typically keeps oil supplies closer to home," Hodes said.
In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week, according to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Investors are also watching trade negotiations ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff deadline of July 9. Trump on Tuesday said he is not thinking of extending the deadline.
A trade deal with India was very close, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday. Trump also said the U.S. will possibly have a deal with India, but he added that he doubts there will be a deal with Japan.
Bessent also warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs, opens new tab despite good-faith negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to the ones Trump announced on April 2 and then suspended.
The European Union wants immediate relief from tariffs in key sectors as part of any trade deal with the U.S., EU diplomats told Reuters.
Morning. Int'l paper saw Jul/Aug AG trade flat at $435, Brazil low/mid-$440s, while phys sales in Egypt ($455) provided definition since production cuts over 2 weeks ago. Nola urea paper saw July trade in-line, Aug +$6 from day prior.
AG
Jul $430//$440 – traded $435s
Aug $430//$435 COB – traded $435s
Sep $420//$430
Brazil
Jul $440//$450 – traded $445
Aug $440//450 – traded $443
Sep $430//$450
Egypt
Jul $445//$475
Aug $440//$470
Sep $435//$460
Nola
Jul $395//$403 – traded $402
Aug $405//$415 – traded $411
Sep $410//$420
Q3 $400//415
Q4 $380//$400
Q1 $390//$410
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720
Q3 $715//$720 – traded $718
Q4 $660//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $745//$765
Aug $735//$755
Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report 2025-7-2*
❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market prices declined slightly, with reference price range of 2,315-2,320 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. A domestic refinery’s sales tender results increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, but market confidence recovery remains limited. Market participants maintain strong wait-and-see sentiment, with inquiries and quotations generally testing lower prices, pushing the market focus downward. Domestic resources showed mainly downward trends, with Puguang Wanzhou prices dropping 50 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, while other regions also saw varying degrees of decline ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton. Today’s spot market is expected to operate with weak consolidation.
❤ Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea factory quoted prices showed stable to slightly weak trends. The overall cautious atmosphere in the market is gradually intensifying. Under the weakening market sentiment, enterprises face continuously rising sales pressure. Against this backdrop, individual regional factories showed intentions to offer discounts for shipments, with low-price transaction conditions slightly improving in some areas. However, given that current demand release remains insufficient, it’s expected that domestic urea market’s high-price trends will decline in the near term, with prices moving toward the lower end of the range.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market remained generally stable with some mixed movements. Current market positives are limited, with equipment recovery, failures, and maintenance alternating. Regional supply and demand for synthetic ammonia varies, and overall, the market operates with regional differentiation, though the magnitude is limited. Near-term synthetic ammonia market is expected to see narrow regional adjustments.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated at low levels. As prices declined, downstream compound fertilizer companies increased tentative inquiries, but still resist high prices. Some ammonium chloride companies continue to implement provisional pricing policies. Short-term demand is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the ammonium chloride market is expected to mainly consolidate.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market remained deadlocked and declined, with poor transaction atmosphere at high levels. Currently, international demand release is limited and doesn’t match domestic prices, with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment. Near-term market is expected to mainly see high-level volatile declines.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market was stable to weak. Companies face shipping pressure with narrow downward adjustments in quotations. Currently, there are no obvious positive stimuli in the market, with bearish sentiment among market participants. The market trend is expected to remain weak in the short term.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued consolidation, with factories mainly executing previous orders and stable prices. Downstream compound fertilizer autumn pricing remains cautious. Since terminal fertilizer use is still early, raw material purchasing enthusiasm is poor with sporadic transactions. On the raw material side, sulfur weakened while sulfuric acid and phosphate rock prices remained high, maintaining cost pressure. In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a consolidation trend. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in deadlock and wait-and-see mode, with no obvious price changes. Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton with actual order negotiations. Market trading atmosphere continues to be sluggish with limited actual order follow-up. Market participants maintain strong wait-and-see sentiment for future market conditions, with the market maintaining narrow consolidation in the short term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Domestic potash fertilizer market quotations remain firm. Potassium chloride supply replenishment remains limited, but circulating sources in the market have increased slightly recently, with varying market prices. 60% Laotian potash prices are mostly at 3,150-3,180 yuan/ton. Potassium sulfate manufacturers still face cost pressure, with new order transactions not being active, while previous orders are mostly being executed.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market operated with narrow consolidation. Recently, companies have mainly launched autumn pre-collection activities, with some new prices tentatively released. Current wait-and-see sentiment remains strong, with dealers operating cautiously. Upstream raw material trends maintain short-term stability, providing support for compound fertilizer costs. Recent attention focuses on the release of company policies.
The quoted prices of domestic urea factories have shown a trend of stabilizing but slightly weakening over the past day. The overall market is becoming increasingly cautious, and under the prevailing downturn in market sentiment, enterprises are facing mounting pressure to sell their products. Against this backdrop, some regional factories have expressed willingness to offer discounts to stimulate sales, which has led to a slight improvement in low-price transactions in certain areas. However, given that the current level of demand release remains insufficient, it is expected that the high prices in the domestic urea market will decline in the near future, and prices will move closer to the lower end of the range.
Tuesday, 01 July 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt: Mopco has sold two lots of 5,000t of granular urea each at $455/t FOB Damietta for July shipment to a nearby market.
60kt MOP tender by NFL in India closing on the 10th July
EABC tender closing 7th July for 70kt dap and 212kt urea
Morning. Int'l paper quiet to start the week w/ further definition sought after the recent volatility. Nola saw improved bids on nearby phys and Q3 paper ($410 on strip), before sellers returned in afternoon. Mkts framed:
AG
Jul $430//$450
Aug $425//$450
Sep $415//$440
Cfr Brazil
Jul $435//$450
Aug $440//$465
Sep $425//$465
Egypt
Aug-Sep $440//$470
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $398; Prompt $403; July $405
Paper:
Jul $395//$403 – traded $403
Aug $400//$410 – traded $405,
Sep $410//$420
Q3 $400//415 – traded $410
Dec $375// $385
Q4 $380//$400
Q1 $390//$410
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720
Q3 $710//$720
Q4 $675//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $745//$765
Aug $735//$755
Stock market analysis for today
Although it is the peak season for agricultural products, based on the current market situation, the agricultural sector alone cannot sustain the market, and the market is showing signs of weakness as a result of the stalemate; it is highly likely that prices in the main regions will drop soon.
The support from the supply side may take time to build up, and then we will have to consider factors such as price levels, market sentiment, and the impact of international exports.
❤*Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market remained stable with consolidation, with reference price range of 2,320-2,330 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference price unchanged from the previous trading day. Currently, due to lack of substantial price guidance, market participants generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Although holders had intentions to adjust shipments, disagreement in psychological expectations between buyers and sellers led to no significant fluctuations in spot negotiations. Regarding USD-denominated resources, Qatar announced its July contract price at FOB $258/ton, down $28/ton month-on-month. Focus on today’s routine pricing adjustments of domestic resources and performance of major refineries’ sales tender results for market guidance.
❤Urea: Although agricultural sales have been decent recently, industrial demand remains weak while supply is still relatively abundant. Combined with sentiment effects, after the domestic urea market’s weak stalemate, prices are more likely to soften and decline first.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday’s synthetic ammonia market was mainly characterized by widespread increases, with flexible adjustments in individual regions. Enterprise maintenance and recovery alternated, factories actively shipped goods, overall supply side showed no obvious changes, while demand side remained mainly weak. Today, some ammonia plants resumed from maintenance, strengthening the supply side. Regional market prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the near term.
❤Ammonium Chloride: Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated at low levels with general trading atmosphere. Compound fertilizer enterprises’ operating rates continued to decline, with limited rigid demand for ammonium chloride. Currently, ammonium chloride enterprises mostly conduct case-by-case negotiations for shipments, with some manufacturers having relatively large inventories. Demand is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the ammonium chloride market is expected to continue its relatively weak trend.
❤Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday’s domestic ammonium sulfate market was mainly characterized by wait-and-see attitudes. Early in the week, lacking news guidance, the overall market performance was quiet. Currently, international urea prices are relatively stable, and considering good future international demand, demand-supportive factors remain. In the short term, the mainstream ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain temporarily stable, with local high-level softening but limited decline.
❤Melamine: Yesterday’s domestic melamine market moved narrowly downward. Market supply-demand relationship showed no obvious improvement, downstream users had weak purchasing intentions, enterprises faced shipping pressure, and raw materials fluctuated weakly. The market trend may face downward pressure in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday’s domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained consolidation with no obvious price changes, mostly waiting for major manufacturers’ latest quotations. Downstream compound fertilizer autumn market progress was slow, with inconsistent raw material stocking and general purchasing enthusiasm. Affected by factors such as raw material price fluctuations and weak terminal demand, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to continue its consolidation trend in the short term. Yesterday’s domestic diammonium phosphate market continued its consolidation trend, with enterprise ex-factory prices showing no obvious fluctuations. Hubei region’s 64% ex-factory price maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton with actual order negotiations. During the demand off-season, downstream maintained only small amounts as needed, market trading atmosphere was relatively light, and the market will maintain consolidation in the short term.
❤Potash Fertilizer: Yesterday’s domestic potassium chloride market prices continued to maintain at relatively high levels, with imported 62% white potash prices mostly at 3,300-3,400 yuan/ton, with some traders even quoting above the high-end price, but downstream factories’ actual transaction acceptance was limited. Potassium sulfate manufacturers continued to operate at a loss with no obvious improvement.
❤Compound Fertilizer*: Yesterday’s domestic compound fertilizer market was largely stable with minor movements. Upstream raw materials fluctuated with narrow adjustments, still providing cost support. Some enterprises successively launched exploratory phased payment policy prices, but dealers’ operational enthusiasm was low, and market wait-and-see sentiment was relatively heavy. The compound fertilizer market is expected to mainly consolidate within a narrow range in the short term, with focus on raw material trends and major enterprises’ advance payment progress.
Increase in inbound phosphoric acid by one click to Hong Kong
Domestic market competition intensifies
Recently, the amount of imported phosphoric acid to Hong Kong has increased significantly.,
Mainly from Morocco, Saudi Arabia and other countries, in June
The volume of arrivals is expected to reach 150,000 tons, an increase from the previous month
20% o The price of imported products is slightly lower than that of similar domestic products
Products have a certain impact on the domestic market,
Some traders are seizing market share,
-Lower the quotation by 50-80 yuan/ton o domestic production
Companies optimize product formulas and improve services
And other ways to deal with competition, the market as a whole presents
The trend of "price for quantity".
The arrival of imported phosphoric acid in Hong Kong has increased, and the domestic market competition has intensified # Imported phosphoric acid
One click #Fertilizer market competition # Changes in agricultural capital supply
Xinwang Chemical
[Urea] On June 30, the daily production of the urea industry was 197,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous working day and 14,400 tons higher than the same period last year; the current operational rate was 85.10%, a rise of 0.76% from the 84.34% recorded last year.
China domestic market update:
❤*Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market first declined then rose. During the week, boosted by export rumors including port inspections and Indian tenders, urea trading activity warmed up and the market stopped falling with small gains. However, current supply remains at high levels while demand release is insufficient, making the upward momentum short-lived. Currently, positive market support is temporarily hard to find, with strong market standoff and wait-and-see sentiment. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, the synthetic ammonia market first fell then rose, with overall trading sentiment improving. The synthetic ammonia market faces oversupply, causing prices to continuously decline. Mid-week, accompanied by ammonia plant failures and maintenance, overall supply was somewhat reduced. Combined with smooth shipments of low-priced goods from ammonia plants and release of previously high inventory levels, factories flexibly raised prices based on their own shipment conditions. Today’s synthetic ammonia market is expected to maintain a positive trend.
❤Ammonium Chloride: Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated at low levels with average trading atmosphere. Compound fertilizer companies continued to reduce operating rates, limiting rigid demand for ammonium chloride. Currently, ammonium chloride companies mostly negotiate prices case-by-case, with some factories having large inventories. Demand is unlikely to improve in the short term, so the ammonium chloride market is expected to continue its weak trend.
❤Ammonium Sulfate: Last week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market was mainly adjusting. As high-end prices declined, user restocking sentiment recovered and market transactions stabilized. Considering that current international urea levels are running reasonably well, market sentiment has some support. However, international high-end transactions are weak and buyer wait-and-see sentiment persists, so short-term ammonium sulfate market stalemate and fluctuation is highly likely.
❤Melamine: Last week, the domestic melamine market operated with volatile consolidation. Supply-demand relationship showed no significant improvement, and raw materials temporarily lack strong support. Companies focused on active shipments, with prices likely under pressure in the short term. Close attention should be paid to raw material price trends.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market showed overall weak consolidation with cooling trading atmosphere. Downstream purchasing attitudes were wait-and-see with limited actual orders. Hubei 55% powder mainstream ex-factory price was 3,380-3,400 yuan/ton for actual negotiations. Raw materials maintained volatility with market sentiment following changes. Autumn market progress was slow, maintaining consolidation in the short term. Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained consolidation and wait-and-see attitudes. Raw material price support was weak but cost pressure remained. Hubei region 64% ex-factory price maintained 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton for actual negotiations. Market trading activity was limited with most players holding wait-and-see attitudes. Downstream maintained only as-needed purchasing, with market continuing consolidation in the short term.
❤Potash Fertilizer: Last week, domestic potash fertilizer market prices showed comprehensive increases. Both domestic and imported potassium chloride prices continued rising, with tight available inventory for sale. Inquiries among traders were relatively active, while downstream compound fertilizer factories remained relatively calm toward continuously rising raw material trends, focusing on as-needed purchasing.
❤Compound Fertilizer*: Last week, the autumn compound fertilizer market was brewing advance collections, with some companies releasing policies and prices. Reference 45% CL (25:13:7) mainstream ex-factory price was 2,350-2,500 yuan/ton. Recently, medium-scale companies have successively planned to hold ordering meetings, making the market clearer. In the short term, compound fertilizer focus should be on raw material changes and new company price releases.
Morning. Post-ceasefire downward adjustment removed war premiums, but the move was possibly over-stated, as urea paper better supported toward end of week, with activity focusing on Nola and Brazil.
AG
Jul $430//$450
Aug $425//$455
_[Aug traded $515-$450 last week]_
Sep $415//$440
Cfr Brazil
Jul $435//$448
_[Jul traded $480-$430 range l/w]_
Aug $440//$460 – traded $435 Fri
_[Aug traded $531-425 range l/w]_
Sep $426//$445
_[Sep traded 420-$425 l/w]_
Egypt
Aug-Sep $435//$470
Nola
Phys: traded $408, $411 Sept
Jul $390//$400
Aug $400//$410 – traded $400, $405,
Sep $400//$415
Q3 $395//410
Dec $375// $385
Q4 $380//$400
Q1 $390//$410
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720 – traded $715
Q3 $710//$720
Q4 $675//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $745//$765
Aug $735//$755