Friday, 27 June 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria: Dangote’s 25 June tender for the supply of three cargoes of 30,000t of granular urea each has been awarded above $420/t FOB Lekki.
It is not clear how many cargoes have been sold. These were scheduled to load 5-8 July, 12-15 July, and 18-21 July.
In the 19 June session, two cargoes of 30,000t of granular urea each for mid-June and late-June shipment were booked in the low-mid $380s/t FOB Lekki.
USD 218 exw in xinjiang province
-FOLLOWING THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT UREA PRICES HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY VOLATILE BUT WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR PRICES UNDERPINNED BY THE UPCOMING 2 MILLION MT UREA TENDER IN INDIA CLOSING JULY 7TH. HOWEVER, RUMORS OF INCREASED UREA SUPPLIES FROM CHINA COULD, IF BECOMING A REALITY, YIELD A SMALL PRICE CORRECTION
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES KEEP GOING UP AND ARE SUPPLY DRIVEN WITH CHINA'S EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON DAP AND MAP HAVING SEEN THE JANUARY TO MAY EXPORTS THE LOWEST SINCE 2002
-ICL OF ISRAEL SETTLED POTASH CONTRACTS IN INDIA AND CHINA BUT BRAZIL AFFORDABILITY IS BECOMING A CONCERN FOR PRODUCERS WITH A PRICE CEILING NEARING
-PRODUCTION ISSUES ON AMMONIA IN MAJOR ORIGINS SAW YARA AND MOSAIC SETTLE JULY CONTRACT UP USD 25 PMT CFR
UREA
The international urea market is supply driven, much like the processed phosphate market. Egypt gas supplies are said to be coming on stream June 27th with urea plants operating at reduced capacities of 50-60%. Plants have now been down for 14 days since the conflict started on June 13th. Iran urea production is still halted as well but it is expected to resume on the 28th of June. Annual net production capacity in Iran is 8.7 million MT with monthly production of 725,000 MT and exports at its peak around 500,000 MT. Iranian Lordegan is said to announce an export tender with bids midday on June 29th and the cargo most likely coming from inventory.
On the trading side, SIUCI of Oman is reported to have sold two cargoes for August shipment with one priced at USD 495 PMT FOB and the other at USD 525 PMT FOB. The trader is apparently motivated by the Middle East conflict and the possible closure of the Hormuz Strait. Tenders in SE Asia saw Pupuk Indonesia achieving USD 452.11 PMT FOB for a large cargo and BFI of Brunei at USD 470 PMT for 2×6 KT for prompt shipment. NOLA/US is in off-season and prices have tumbled with the latest CFR PMT equivalent to USD 419-424. Brazil has yet to come into prime buying season but it is getting closer for each week and the latest deal reported is for Chinese material at USD 425-430 PMT CFR.
Argentina urea imports for January-May were 188,000t, down from the 280,000t for the same period of last year. Some 67,000t came from Qatar, 31,000t from Egypt and 28,000t from Turkmenistan. May was the busiest month with 106,000t. This includes the entire 67,000t from Qatar, plus 25,000t from Algeria and 8,000t from Bolivia. Spain imports for January-April were 418,000t, the largest amount for this period in a decade and up from 333,000t in January-April 2024. Egypt was the key supplier at 220,000t, along with Russia with 48,000t and the Netherlands with 45,000t.
The big issue for the urea market is the recently announced India tender for 2 million MT closing July 7th with shipments by August 22nd. India has not been very successful of late in getting the targeted volume and got hit badly by the most recent Middle East conflict which saw only 229,000 MT secured at USD 399 PMT CFR albeit the target was 1.5 million MT.
The outlook for the urea market is stable to strong supported by the upcoming India tender and Brazil soon entering its major buying season. However, there are rumblings that China may increase export availability with another 2 million MT for a combined 4 million MT – this could lead to a small correction but not to numbers seen pre-war.
PHOSPHATES
The processed phosphate market is a never-ending story with limited supply driven by export restrictions of DAP/MAP from China. For the period January – May this year China exported 184,000 MT, the lowest since 2002. Exports in the same period in 2023 saw 2.36 million MT leave China. Current DAP/MAP values in China are now said to be around USD 740-750 PMT FOB. India’s continued need to import DAP has seen prices close to, if not above, USD 800 PMT CFR as offered by OCP.
Prices for DAP in China have climbed from USD 636 PMT CFR in May of this year to the most recent deals at USD 790 PMT CFR.
Brazil’s MAP prices have increased another USD 5 PMT to reach USD $755 PMT CFR. Affordability is a big issue thus it is expected that buyer resistance could lead to MAP prices having reached a cap.
Additional DAP demand from Ethiopia has absorbed supply in a market that would have been tight anyway. EABC over the past week awarded two lots under the DAP requirement in its 16 June restricted tender, with supply to come from China. The importer issued a wave of DAP tenders over the past several months, marking a pivot from NPS to DAP and soaking up DAP supply. EABC typically imported more than 1 Mt/year of NPS from Morocco in recent years. The importer is understood to have booked more than 1 Mt DAP for arrival this year, in addition to a 2024 Q4 cargo of around 55,000 t from China.
Prices are expected to increase further over the coming weeks, as demand picks up, while supply remains exceptionally tight. Affordability concerns persist, but buyers have limited options. Any reversal in direction now seems unlikely until at least Q3, and that will depend on supply improving and buyers becoming more comfortable
POTASH
Major potash contracts have now been finalized with the latest of ICL of Israel agreeing to sell 750,000 MT to China at USD 346 CIFFO with an option for an additional 340,000 MT. Further, ICL has agreed with India’s IPL for 400,000 MT with an option for another 100,000 MT at USD 349 PMT CIFFO. The interesting part here is that China is paying a small premium over India – and this normally does not happen!
Early last week, Arab Potash Company (APC) and IPL also agreed to the 2025 potash supply contract, as part of its multi-year deal for 2022-2026, but did not disclose specific volumes for the year. Market sources said the APC is expected to sign the supply contract with China shortly. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, prompt prices were unchanged as demand was muted and buying activity limited. Standard MOP prices reached $345-360/t CFR, while granular MOP prices also stabilised at $370-385/t CFR. In the Americas, for the seventh consecutive week, prices in Brazil remained unchanged as on weak demand. Despite higher offers still circulating in the market, sources suggest that sellers are likely to face push back from farmers.
Following the contract settlement, prices are expected to continue to adjust upwards in the coming weeks. However, concerns over Brazil’s price outlook are emerging, with some believing the market is nearing its ceiling.
AMMONIA
The market has swung significantly into bull territory over the past week amid supply concerns in the Americas, North Africa and the Middle East. Combined with a notable uptick in demand from worried buyers on both sides of Suez, a price rally has developed, albeit one that could be short-lived if the supply situation returns to normality relatively soon. While supply constraints in Iran and Saudi Arabia had been widely publicised, fresh capacity curtailments in Algeria, Trinidad and the US Gulf have given some leading players major headaches in recent days. As a consequence, the Yara Mosaic July contract settlement saw an increase of USD 25 PMT leading to a new price of USD 417 PMT CFR.
With Iranian producers now restarting operations after short shutdowns, Indian buyers will be keeping their fingers crossed that cargoes flow again very soon. Spot demand in Northeast Asia remains in a lull, but the loss of Saudi and Indonesian volume has seen suppliers revise their price targets upwards.
Prices in the west could increase further should gas curtailments in the Caribbean become reality, whilst values in the east could be supported by an extended turnaround in Saudi Arabia.
Stein Chingen Haugan
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*Phosphorus Chemicals:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued its strong performance with some low-end prices exploring upward. Yellow phosphorus companies maintained their price-supporting and sales-reluctant attitude, while downstream buyers remained cautiously observant. Some traders were forced to follow the trend due to pending orders, driving yellow phosphorus market transaction prices to gradually materialize. Yesterday’s mainstream transaction prices in Yunnan and Sichuan yellow phosphorus markets were referenced at 21,900-22,100 yuan/ton, while Guizhou market transactions were referenced at 22,200-22,300 yuan/ton, with specific transactions subject to negotiation.
Yesterday, phosphoric acid prices remained stable. Yellow phosphorus companies showed strong price-supporting sentiment with low willingness to accept low-price orders. Thermal acid costs remained temporarily stable, and thermal phosphoric acid had limited fluctuation room under processing fee pressure. Wet-process acid factory quotations maintained previous levels, with downstream demand still mainly driven by new energy consumption. Thermal phosphoric acid ex-factory prices in Sichuan region were referenced at 6,300-6,350 yuan/ton.
Phosphate rock market prices remained stable. Weak domestic agricultural demand led phosphate fertilizer companies to maintain cautious attitudes toward raw material procurement, generally adopting just-in-time restocking strategies. The phosphate rock market is in a weak supply-demand balance, with continued price competition between buyers and sellers, likely maintaining a stalemate trend in the short term.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the domestic port spot market remained stable with price ranges referenced at 2,320-2,330 yuan/ton, with mainstream reference prices flat compared to the previous trading day. Domestic large refinery sales tender results fell 235 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. This news failed to break the market’s wait-and-see deadlock, with end-user purchasing willingness remaining persistently low. Trader inquiries mostly stayed at the exploratory stage, with the market lacking substantial demand support, maintaining an overall consolidation pattern. Regarding USD resources, Qatar spot tender prices were rumored to be around FOB $283/ton. Short-term spot markets are expected to continue consolidating.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market showed local upward movement. Influenced by acid price increases in surrounding provinces like Hubei, acid plant outbound orders increased significantly. Combined with stable downstream demand, major acid plants in Hunan raised quotations by 20 yuan/ton yesterday, while major plants in Zhejiang and Jiangxi raised prices by 30 yuan/ton. Guangdong region was affected by acid price increases in surrounding provinces like Guangxi, combined with pyrite price increase expectations. Yunfu area acid plants raised quotations by 30 yuan/ton yesterday under cost pressure. Currently, 98% smelting acid mainstream prices in Hunan region are around 510-600 yuan/ton. Guangdong 98% ore acid ex-factory prices are around 500-560 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, the domestic urea market performed relatively strong. Supported by pending orders, most factories maintained upward-exploring quotations. However, market sentiment fluctuated frequently due to export news, with industry participants showing increased caution about future markets. High-price transactions were lukewarm. Short-term market resistance to high prices is expected to gradually increase, with potential stalemate competition between buyers and sellers.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market was mainly characterized by general increases. Overall supply side contracted somewhat, with ammonia plants’ previous low-price goods moving smoothly and previous high inventory levels being released. Today’s synthetic ammonia market is expected to maintain a positive trend.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated at low levels. Compound fertilizer companies continued just-in-time purchasing. Recent urea price alternations created a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the ammonium chloride market. Currently, most companies still execute case-by-case negotiations for shipments. With weak short-term demand, the ammonium chloride market will continue low-level narrow adjustments.
Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market fluctuated narrowly with rational adjustments from previous highs. As high-end prices fell back, user restocking sentiment recovered and market transactions stabilized. Considering current international urea levels are running reasonably well, plus good international market demand, domestic ammonium sulfate markets are expected to mainly consolidate in the short term.
Melamine:
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market operated steadily. No obvious positive fundamentals emerged, with manufacturers mainly focusing on active shipments. End users maintained pessimistic sentiment while waiting for market developments, with market conditions under pressure.
Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, Israel signed a 2025 potash contract with China. The agreement includes supplying 750,000 tons with an option for an additional 340,000 tons of potash fertilizer at a CIF price of $346/ton, consistent with previously signed contract prices. Domestic potash fertilizer market prices continue their upward trend.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued consolidating, with Hubei 55% powder ex-factory prices around 3,380-3,400 yuan/ton, with actual transactions mainly subject to negotiation. Factories have relatively sufficient pending orders, with some lacking direction and new orders following up slowly, but prices remain stable. Downstream maintains small-scale just-in-time purchasing with cautious mentality and average demand atmosphere. Short-term wait-and-see operations continue.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued observing, with Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton for actual negotiations, with companies actively executing export advance orders. During demand off-season, downstream only maintains small-scale just-in-time purchasing, with average market trading activity. Short-term markets continue consolidating operations.
Compound Fertilizer:*
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market was mainly observational. With urea and potash fertilizer increases, market sentiment showed some improvement. Some companies plan to release new autumn prices at month-end/month-beginning, with some maintaining interest-bearing and other preferential advance collection policies. Short-term compound fertilizer markets are expected to mainly make exploratory adjustments, with focus on specific details of company collection policies and pricing.
[Initiative by the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association to Ensure Phosphamide Supply and Stabilize Prices]
On June 26, 2025, the association issued an initiative, calling on the entire industry to ensure phosphorus-ammonium supply and stabilize phosphorus-ammonium prices, while also accepting social oversight.
If you or someone you know comes across situations such as hoarding, arbitrary price increases, bundling sales, the signing of ambiguous contracts, or unclear contract prices at phosphorus ammonium production enterprises, we encourage you to report these issues to the association. Once the association confirms the existence of such violations, they will be dealt with appropriately and severely.
Channels for oversight
• Oversight Hotline: 010-82035207 (during business hours)
· Supervisory email: zglffgyxh@126.com
On June 25, 2025, the prices of phosphate ammonium products (standard common varieties) will be announced.
64% diammonium phosphate, East China Region (first arrival point) 3,950 RMB/ton
57% diammonium phosphate, North China (first delivery point) 3,600 RMB per ton
55% granular ammonium nitrate, Central China (ex-factory): 3,350 yuan/ton
58% granular ammonium nitrate in East China (ex-factory): 3,650 yuan/ton
3850 yuan/ton, 60% granular ammonium nitrate in southwestern China (ex-factory)
Iranian on offer in South Africa at 485 cfr
BCIC 500k DAP, 200k TSP and 300K MOP tender
ICL Group Ltd. announced on June 25, 2025, that it has signed an agreement with Israel Potash to supply potassium fertilizer to customers in China and India in 2025.
In China, the agreement includes the supply of 750,000 tons of potash, with the option to supply an additional 340,000 tons at a price of US$346 per ton.
In India, the agreement with Indian Potash Limited covers a supply of 400,000 tons, with the option to purchase an additional 100,000 tons at a price of US$349 per ton.
Morning. Int'l paper played second fiddle to Nola y'day, but activity continued to focus on Brazil. Nola Urea corrected lower following weaker grains, but signs of support returned by close.
AG
Jul $415//$440
Aug $415//$440
Sep $405//$430
Cfr Brazil
Jul $425//$440– traded $430
Aug $430//$445
Sep $420//$445 – traded $425
Egypt
Paper definition sought since production halted/no new sales.
Any/all input welcomed.
Nola
Jul $375//$390
Aug $385//$395 – traded $400, $390, $385
Sep $385//400 – traded $385, $385
Q3 $390//415 – traded $390
Dec $375// $395 – traded $375
Q4 $375//$400 – traded $375
Options: Nov $350 Put traded $10, Nov $440 Call traded $9, Nov $450 Call traded 7.50
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $235// 275
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $715//$730
Q3 $710//$720
Q4 $675//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $730//$755
Aug $725//$745
Here’s the translation of this Chinese fertilizer industry market report dated June 26, 2025:
*Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report (2025-06-26)
Phosphorus Chemicals:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market showed a firm operating trend with stable prices showing upward signs. Continued negotiations between buyers and sellers, with low-priced sources hard to find. A yellow phosphorus plant’s sales tender price increase provided upward guidance to the market, forcing buyers’ target prices to adjust upward. Short-term market conditions are expected to remain strong. Yesterday, mainstream transaction prices in Yunnan and Sichuan yellow phosphorus markets were referenced at 21,900-22,000 yuan/ton, while Guizhou market transactions were referenced at 22,200-22,300 yuan/ton, with specific transactions subject to negotiation.
During yesterday’s price adjustment cycle, wet-process acid supply side mainly maintained stable pricing. Current wet-process acid mainstream factories focus on stable-price shipments, maintaining inventory within reasonable ranges with no significant shipping pressure. Most thermal-process phosphoric acid enterprises maintained previous quotations, with yellow phosphorus companies showing strong price-holding and reluctant-selling sentiment. Prices remained stable, with thermal-process acid cost side having certain support. Under processing fee pressure, thermal-process phosphoric acid price fluctuations were limited. Sichuan region thermal-process phosphoric acid ex-factory reference price was 6,300-6,350 yuan/ton.
Phosphate rock mainstream quotations remained stable, with phosphate rock enterprises shipping existing orders. Current phosphate fertilizer overall operating rate is less than 50%, with downstream enterprises mostly purchasing as needed. Market gaming state continues. Reference prices: Guizhou Weng’an area 28% grade phosphate rock truck-loaded tax-inclusive delivery price around 900 yuan/ton; Kaiyang area 30% grade truck-loaded tax-inclusive transaction price at 950-980 yuan/ton, with high-end quotations above 1,020 yuan/ton.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, domestic port spot market conditions continued declining, with price range referenced at 2,295-2,320 yuan/ton, mainstream reference price down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. International situation easing, market sentiment temporarily fell into wait-and-see consolidation, with some buyers entering to inquire but mostly focusing on aggressive price suppression. Domestic resources generally stabilized, with Northeast region market prices showing small increases of 20-30 yuan/ton. Due to temporary lack of directional news in the market, traders mostly await guidance from today’s refinery sales tender results.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, domestic sulfuric acid market rose locally. Supported by export orders and downstream phosphate fertilizer demand in Hubei, Anhui and Hubei main acid plants maintained low inventory levels, with acid prices rising 30 yuan/ton yesterday. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang main acid enterprise raised prices 30 yuan/ton yesterday. Driven by this, Jiangxi and Zhejiang main acid plants raised prices 30 yuan/ton today, Hunan main acid plant raised prices 20 yuan/ton today, and Guangdong Yunfu acid plant raised prices 30 yuan/ton today. Currently, Hubei region 98% smelting acid delivered price is around 680-730 yuan/ton. Jiangsu region 98% sulfur acid price is 670-730 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, domestic urea market trading warmed up, mainly stimulated by favorable news such as exports and international India tenders. Urea factories showed significant improvement in order reception, with most enterprises stopping or limiting orders. Low-end quotations showed upward adjustment trends, with the market temporarily stopping decline and showing small rebounds.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, synthetic ammonia market atmosphere varied, with mixed rises and falls. Recent continuous regional maintenance reduced supply, ammonia plants shipped relatively smoothly, inventory was released, and prices continued exploring upward. Short-term synthetic ammonia market is expected to be stable with positive trends.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, ammonium chloride market continued weak operation, with most enterprises still executing case-by-case negotiations for shipments. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchased based on low-level rigid demand, overall trading atmosphere was general. Short-term demand is difficult to improve significantly, and ammonium chloride market continues at low levels.
Ammonium Sulfate:
Yesterday, domestic ammonium sulfate market showed regional rises and falls. Against the background of some coking plants’ low auction prices last week, there are still local low-price catch-up phenomena this week. However, after recent international situation stabilization, market purchasing sentiment is cautious, and enthusiasm for high-price procurement has cooled. Short-term ammonium sulfate market is expected to operate weakly, with subsequent attention to international urea price guidance.
Melamine:
Yesterday, domestic melamine market adjusted narrowly downward. Current market supply-demand relationship shows no obvious changes, downstream rigid demand follow-up is the main theme, market lacks favorable factor stimulation, and market conditions may continue under pressure.
Potash Fertilizer:
New domestic potassium chloride policy was introduced, with the latest ex-factory price of benchmark product 60% potassium chloride at 2,700 yuan/ton (freight extra). Imported potassium chloride sources are mainly reluctant to sell, with relatively large price increases. Potassium sulfate manufacturers’ quotations rose, new order transactions were slightly slow, but cost-driven effects were obvious.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic monoammonium phosphate market trend consolidated, with Hubei 55 powder ex-factory around 3,380-3,400 yuan/ton, maintaining actual negotiation transactions. Factories continue to execute mainly pending shipments with no pressure, prices basically unchanged. Downstream purchasing mentality is wait-and-see, new order follow-up slowed again, traders operate cautiously, and market performance is deadlocked.
Yesterday, domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in deadlock observation, with ex-factory prices showing no obvious fluctuations, enterprises focusing on executing export orders. Demand still shows fatigue, market circulation speed slowed, downstream only maintains small-volume as-needed purchasing. Short-term market maintains narrow consolidation trend.
Compound Fertilizer:*
Yesterday, domestic compound fertilizer market continued consolidation trend. Current industry attention focuses on autumn market pre-booking conditions. Raw material consolidation brings more market wait-and-see sentiment. Current market conditions are not yet clear, attention to enterprise price announcements. Current reference for 45% high-nitrogen wheat formula mainstream ex-factory price: 2,350-2,450 yuan/ton.
Since the enforcement of the relaxation measures on May 26, 2025, China's export transactions are projected to have reached approximately 1.6 million tons.
The primary destinations for the sold products are: (1) Ethiopia; (2) Chile; (3) Mexico; (4) Brazil; (5) Nepal; (6) Southeast Asia; and (7) Australia. It is anticipated that South Africa will also continue to purchase urea from China.
Here’s the translation of this Chinese fertilizer industry chain morning briefing:
*Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief 2025-6-25
❤Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market prices fell sharply, with reference price range of 2,360-2,395 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference price down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After Israel announced a comprehensive ceasefire, sulfur electronic trading experienced violent fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere became increasingly quiet after news of a failed bidding by a major domestic refinery in the afternoon. Domestic resources remained generally stable, with liquid sulfur prices in Shandong region adjusting upward by 30-50 yuan/ton. Today’s spot market is expected to mainly consolidate.
❤Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea operated weakly stable. Some lower-end quoted companies saw improved trading, but attention still needs to be paid to downstream follow-up sustainability. Indian tenders, port inspections, and international news will also affect market trading sentiment. Prices temporarily remain weakly stable in the short term. Monitor international market news and price developments in the next two days.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market remained mainly stable with regional minor adjustments. Regional prices bottomed out, with ammonia plants showing upward exploration trends and overall trading atmosphere improving. Short-term synthetic ammonia market shows positive expectations.
❤Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated at low levels with average trading atmosphere. Downstream compound fertilizer companies have low operating rates with limited rigid demand for ammonium chloride. Currently, ammonium chloride companies mostly negotiate case-by-case, with some factories having large inventories. Short-term outlook shows strong supply and weak demand, with ammonium chloride market continuing weak trends.
❤Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market saw high-end retreat and low-end补涨 (catch-up gains). Affected by the sharp drop in international urea, traders’ cautious sentiment increased sharply, with lack of transactions at high levels in the market. The coking market still has mainstream price support due to relatively low gains last week, with users mainly purchasing as needed. Short-term market expected to consolidate at mid-to-low levels.
❤Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market operated with narrow consolidation, with companies flexibly adjusting prices according to their own situations. In the short term, the market lacks positive news support, with high probability of downward price loosening. Future attention needed on raw material price trends.
❤Potash Fertilizer: The domestic potash fertilizer market continues an upward pulling trend, with traders’ reluctance to sell still mainstream. Market supply is tight, border trade also lacks supplementary sources, and domestic potassium chloride manufacturers’ new policies are mostly pending. Mannheim potassium sulfate 52% powder ex-factory prices are mostly 3,600-3,750 yuan/ton, with transactions negotiated case-by-case.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market consolidated. Hubei 55% powder mainstream ex-factory price 3,380-3,400 yuan/ton for actual negotiations. Raw material sulfur dropped sharply, affecting market sentiment, but MAP factories all have pending shipment support, plus downstream raw material inventory at low levels, maintaining stable operation short-term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued consolidation trends. Hubei region 64% ex-factory price maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, mainly actual order negotiations. Market trading activity not high, limited price fluctuations, downstream only maintaining purchase-as-needed, market continues consolidation trends short-term.
❤Compound Fertilizer*: Yesterday, domestic compound fertilizer market continued consolidation. During autumn pre-collection period, compound fertilizer prices are being released successively, currently unclear, mostly policy incentives. Additionally, raw material price fluctuations increase industry wait-and-see sentiment. Short-term brewing adjustments, monitor company policy and price release situations.
The latest price from domestic potassium chloride manufacturers, for the benchmark product with a 60% content, is 2,700 RMB per ton, ex-factory and payable in cash. Transportation costs are additional. This price is 100 RMB higher than the previous offer.
Morning. Ceasefire news brought a significant downward adjustment on urea paper y'day (Brazil down >$100 from Mon), but w/ India's prompt return (RCF) highlighting their need to buy, an element of support eventually seen at these lower levels.
AG
Jul $415//$445
Aug $415//$440 – traded $470, $450
Sep $400//$430
Cfr Brazil
Jul $430//$448 – traded $480, $430, $445s, $430
Aug $427//$450 – traded $425, $440, $436.50, $435
Sep $410//$440 – traded $420
Egypt
Jul $430//$465
Aug $425//$460
Nola
Jul $390//$405
Aug $395//$410
Sep $400//425
Q3 $390//415
Q4 $380//$435
Option: Aug Nola $360 Put traded $5
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $235// 275
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $715//$730
Q3 $710//$720
Q4 $675//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $730//$755
Aug $725//$745
Based on the analysis of the current supply and demand situation in the domestic market, urea is facing multiple constraints. Due to delayed planting progress, agricultural demand is weak, and industrial procurement is also sluggish, with market demand primarily driven by the need for rigid stock replenishment. When the spot price of urea hovers around 1,800 RMB per ton, downstream purchasing entities generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a subdued atmosphere in market transactions. However, the intensification of international geopolitical conflicts, coupled with the continuous progress of urea tenders in India, has resulted in a stable price differential between domestic and international urea markets. This market scenario has led the industry to generally expect that the export quota for urea may be further liberalized in the future. After comprehensive analysis, it is projected that the market price of urea will exhibit a range-bound trend in the short term.