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What are the pains of a mineral fertilizer distributor?
Pain
Empty warehouse — and the client is already in the field.
Another shortage. Another round of late-night calls. Another “it should arrive tomorrow.”
Problem
There are no fertilizers. The client is nervous. Your reputation is cracking.
And the trader says: “Just a few more days — this time for sure.”
Solution
We secure volume in advance.
So you don’t have to guess — you deliver when it matters.
Container shipments from Africa..
Starting from quantity which you need
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P.S. Sometimes everyone has delays
The Lao government has halted all surveys, exploration and implementation of potash projects in capital Vientiane, according to a notice issued on 1 July by the Standing Committee of the National Assembly of Laos.
The government will also evaluate and inspect projects that have already been implemented. Currently, at least two China-invested projects — by producers Zangge and Yuntianhua — located in Vientiane are likely to be impacted.
This notice comes after the people's government of Vientiane submitted a petition to the National Economic, Technology and Environmental Committee in September 2024 to conduct an investigation and evaluation on the impact of these potash mines, and follows a landslide that occurred in Tongmang village in Vientiane on 1 June 2025 and caused damage to residential properties. This decision is likely driven by concerns for environmental protection as well as safety of the residents in Vientiane.
The decision will not impact any of the other potash projects, namely Lao Kaiyuan and Asia Potash, which are located around 400km away in Khammoune province.
Zangge and Yuntianhua are still waiting on further guidance from the Lao government and have not provided any comment on the matter. Yuntianhua's 500,000 t/yr Ruiyuan Richfield project started commercial production at the end of 2024, while Zangge's 1mn t/yr project construction has been delayed from 2024 to 2025, without a clear start date.
Sumadra India ChatGPT synopsis:
Forecast for the L1 Price of the Indian Urea Tender Closing July 7, 2025
I. Executive Summary
The L1 (lowest bid) price for the Indian urea tender closing on July 7, 2025, is projected to be in the range of USD 465 – 475 per tonne CFR (Cost and Freight). This forecast is underpinned by a confluence of critical market dynamics, including an acute domestic supply deficit in India, sustained high global urea prices driven by geopolitical conflicts and production curtailments, escalating raw material and freight costs, and a clear pattern of suppliers leveraging India's urgent procurement needs.
Key drivers influencing this projection include:
● Record-high Indian urea sales in June 2025, coupled with critically low domestic stock levels and lagging local production.
● A significant surge in global urea prices, particularly in late June, directly attributable to Middle East conflict-induced supply disruptions and output curtailments.
● Rising natural gas prices, which directly increase the cost of urea production for suppliers.
● A consistent trend of recent Indian tenders failing to secure target volumes, indicating that previous L1 prices were insufficient to attract the required supply.
● Upward pressure on global freight rates, adding to the Cost and Freight (CFR) price for imports.
II. Global Urea Market Landscape: Key Drivers and Trends in 2025
The global urea market has been characterized by significant price volatility and an overall upward trend throughout the first half of 2025. This trajectory is a critical factor in determining the L1 price for India's upcoming tender.
Current Global Price Trajectory and Regional Variations (Q1-Q2 2025)
The global urea market has witnessed a steep and consistent ascent in prices during the first six months of 2025. Global retail urea prices, for instance, climbed from approximately $490 per tonne in January 2025 to a notable $663 per tonne by June 2025, reflecting robust seasonal demand and ongoing supply chain constraints. This substantial increase indicates underlying structural issues beyond typical seasonal demand, suggesting a market where demand consistently outstrips readily available supply or where significant cost pressures are at play.
A similar upward trend is evident in the United States, where retail urea prices rose from $490 per tonne in early January to $656 per tonne by late June 2025. These retail figures reflect the underlying wholesale and import costs, confirming the high price environment for urea across major consumption regions.
Crucially for India, Middle East FOB (Free On Board) granular urea prices, which serve as a primary benchmark for Indian imports, experienced a significant surge in late June 2025. Prices jumped from approximately $385 per tonne at the beginning of the month to $435 per tonne by June 26-30. This sharp and very recent increase in a key supply region indicates strong upward momentum in supplier costs and expectations just days before the Indian tender closes. The current market is operating at significantly higher levels than earlier in the year, a foundational element for forecasting the July 7th tender's L1 price.
Month (2025) Global Retail Urea Price (USD/ton) US Retail Urea Price (USD/ton) Middle East FOB Urea Price (USD/ton) Egypt FOB Urea Price (USD/ton) Saudi Arabia FOB Urea Price (USD/ton)
January $490 (approx.) $490 N/A N/A N/A
February $536 $525 N/A N/A N/A
March $543 $548 N/A $411 $362
April N/A $565 N/A N/A N/A
May N/A $596 N/A $380 (early May) N/A
June $663 $656 $385 (early June) to $435 (late June) N/A $365–380 (stable after May correction)
Table 1: Global Urea Price Benchmarks (Q1-Q2 2025, USD/ton)
Global Supply-Demand Dynamics: Production Capacities, Consumption Patterns, and Trade Flows
Global urea demand is projected to increase by 3% in 2025, a trend driven by expanding agricultural needs worldwide. This consistent demand growth sets a firm floor under global prices.
China, while being the world's largest producer and consumer of urea, has played a significant role in shaping global supply dynamics through its export policies. Chinese production capacity increased to 67 million tonnes per annum (t/a) in 2024, with a forecast to grow further to 67.8 million t/a in 2025. However, Chinese export restrictions have dramatically reduced its presence in the global market, with reports indicating a 92% year-over-year decline in exports in August 2024. This restrictive policy acts as a major market disruptor, creating a significant supply vacuum globally. This forces major importers like India to compete fiercely for limited alternative supplies, contributing to higher prices and volatility.
In response to China's reduced exports, Russia has emerged as a key supplier, with its exports soaring by 11% in 2024 to 9.5 million t/a, effectively filling some of the void left by China. This shift in trade flows highlights a growing reliance on Russian supply, which, while providing necessary volume, also introduces potential geopolitical complexities and associated risks.
Impact of Geopolitical Events and Trade Policies on Global Supply
Geopolitical events have profoundly impacted the global fertilizer market, particularly in the Middle East. The Israel-Iran conflict, for instance, significantly firmed market sentiment and introduced volatility to freight rates in June 2025. This conflict directly contributed to urea prices reaching their highest levels in four months.
Specific production halts in key exporting regions underscore this impact. Egyptian urea output was halted on June 13, and Iranian urea production went offline on June 19, directly pushing FOB prices to elevated levels. These specific, recent supply-side shocks are a primary driver of the current high prices. The direct causal link between these events and the recent price surges means that the current high price environment is not merely speculative but driven by tangible supply reductions. This situation grants producers significant negotiating leverage, especially if supply disruptions persist, allowing them to justify and demand elevated bids in the July 7th tender.
Analysis of Raw Material Costs (Natural Gas) and their influence on Urea Production
Natural gas is a primary feedstock for urea production, making its price a critical determinant of manufacturing costs. Natural gas prices are trending upward in 2025-2026. The Henry Hub spot price, a key North American benchmark, is projected to average $4.12 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a substantial increase of approximately 27% year-over-year. Another forecast by the EIA projects the Henry Hub average at $3.80 per MMBtu for 2025, noting that prices already averaged $4.62 per MMBtu in January 2025.
This consistent forecast for rising natural gas prices indicates a fundamental increase in the cost of producing urea. Manufacturers will inevitably pass these higher production costs onto buyers. Furthermore, soaring Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports and increasing global market linkages mean that geopolitical shocks, such as those occurring in the Middle East, can ripple into natural gas prices, further exacerbating urea price increases. This creates a compounding effect, where both supply disruptions and rising input costs exert upward pressure on the L1 price.
Overview of Global Fertilizer Affordability and its Market Implications
Global fertilizer affordability has deteriorated significantly, reaching its lowest point in nearly three years in June 2025, with an affordability index falling to 0.75 points. This decline is a result of sustained increases in fertilizer prices, particularly urea, while global crop values have simultaneously dipped to a near five-year low. Urea affordability, specifically measured by the ratio of urea to corn prices, is 32% below year-ago levels.
This affordability crisis places immense pressure on farmers worldwide. While such conditions might suggest a future slowdown in farmer demand, for a critical importer like India, facing pressing food security concerns, the situation compels them to secure supply even at elevated prices. The alternative of reduced crop yields due to fertilizer scarcity would be economically and socially more detrimental. This dynamic ensures that despite affordability concerns, India remains a highly motivated buyer, giving suppliers confidence that their higher offers will ultimately be accepted out of necessity.
III. Indian Urea Market: Domestic Conditions and Import Imperatives
India's domestic urea market is currently characterized by a severe supply-demand imbalance, making imports an urgent imperative.
Recent Domestic Production and Consumption Statistics (2024-2025)
India's domestic urea consumption has reached unprecedented levels. Domestic offtake (sales) hit a monthly record of 3.42 million tonnes in June 2025, marking the highest amount ever recorded for that month and a 12% increase compared to the previous year. The cumulative sales for the April-June period also set a new record, totaling 6.99 million tonnes, up from 6.23 million tonnes a year earlier. This robust demand is a direct consequence of favorable agricultural conditions.
In stark contrast to surging demand, Indian urea production has been struggling to keep pace. Output fell to 2.36 million tonnes in June 2025, a rate lower than in the past two years, and has consistently lagged behind demand since August-September 2023. This widening gap between robust consumption and insufficient domestic production directly translates into an acute and immediate need for imports, making the July 7th tender a critical procurement event that cannot be delayed or under-sourced.
Current Urea Stock Levels and Record Sales Performance (June 2025)
The imbalance between production and consumption has severely depleted India's urea inventories. As of July 1, 2025, estimated urea stocks stood at a critically low 6.6 million tonnes, representing a substantial drop from approximately 11 million tonnes recorded a year earlier. This drastic year-on-year reduction signifies a severe stock crunch, leaving India with minimal buffer.
India has faced significant challenges in building up its stocks in preparation for the summer months, with a series of previous import tenders failing to secure the required tonnage. This history of under-procurement, combined with current depleted inventories, creates immense urgency for the July 7th tender. Securing the 2 million tonnes sought is paramount to avoid critical shortages during the peak agricultural season, and this urgency will likely translate into a willingness to accept higher L1 prices.
Metric (Million Tonnes) April-June 2024 April-June 2025 Change (%)
Domestic Sales (Offtake) 6.23 6.99 +12.2%
Domestic Production (June) >2.36 (past 2 yrs) 2.36 N/A
Inventories (July 1) 11 6.6 -40%
Table 2: Indian Urea Market Balance (April-June 2025, Million Tonnes)
Influence of Monsoon Season and Agricultural Demand on Import Needs
The surge in urea sales is largely attributed to the robust monsoon rains, which commenced early on May 24, 2025—the earliest onset since 2009. June countrywide rainfall levels were 9% above the historical mean, further boosting agricultural activity. Demand is projected to remain strong in July, with rainfall expected to exceed 106% of the long-term mean.
This strong and early monsoon, coupled with projections for continued above-normal rainfall, establishes that the high demand for urea is not a temporary spike but a sustained, weather-driven phenomenon critical for India's agricultural output. Field crops, including rice, wheat, and soybean, dominate India's urea market, accounting for approximately 88% of the total market value in 2024. The increasing cultivation area for these crops, driven by rising consumer demand, further reinforces the persistent need for urea. This predictability of demand gives suppliers confidence that the tendered volume is genuinely needed and will be absorbed, strengthening their pricing position.
Government Policies, Subsidies, and Initiatives impacting Urea Supply
The Indian government has articulated an ambitious long-term goal to cease urea imports by the end of 2025, a policy driven by efforts to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce dependency. Significant investments have been made, increasing installed domestic production capacities to approximately 310 lakh tonnes from 225 lakh tonnes in 2014-15. The capacity is expected to reach around 325 lakh tonnes once a fifth plant is commissioned.
Despite these strategic initiatives, a current gap of approximately 40 lakh tonnes exists between domestic production and demand. This highlights a disconnect between policy aspirations and immediate market reality. The July 7th tender for 2 million tonnes is a clear indication that, for now, imports remain indispensable to bridge this deficit. Furthermore, the government's approval for the continuation of the Urea Subsidy Scheme from 2022-23 to 2024-25, committing substantial funds, ensures that the cost burden of higher import prices can be absorbed to some extent, allowing for more competitive bids from India.
IV. Analysis of Recent Indian Urea Tenders and Market Sentiment
The outcomes of recent Indian urea tenders provide crucial context for forecasting the upcoming July 7th tender, revealing a pattern of unmet demand and escalating prices.
Review of Recent Indian Urea Tender Outcomes: L1 Prices and Volumes Secured (2024-2025)
India has consistently struggled to secure its full requested volumes in recent urea tenders, indicating a tight global market and supplier reluctance at prevailing prices. A tender closing on December 19, 2024, for instance, secured only 187,000 tonnes at an L1 price of USD 369.75 per tonne CFR for the west coast, far short of its anticipated requirements. This suggests that even at this price, suppliers were unwilling to commit significant volumes.
More recently, a tender (prior to June 30, 2025), which was affected by the escalating Middle East conflict, managed to secure only 229,000 tonnes at an L1 price of USD 399 per tonne CFR, well below its 1.5-million-tonne target. This progression of L1 prices from $369.75/tonne CFR in December 2024 to $399/tonne CFR in a very recent tender clearly demonstrates an upward trend in what India has been willing to pay. The consistent failure to secure target volumes at these rising prices indicates a strong seller's market and significant supplier leverage. Further underscoring this, an Indian NPK tender in June 2025 reportedly received "no offers," signaling a broader supplier reluctance to commit in the current tight market.
The upcoming RCF tender on July 7, 2025, is seeking a substantial 2 million tonnes of urea across both coasts. This sets a strong precedent: a higher L1 price will be necessary to attract the desired volume, as previous, lower L1 prices have proven insufficient.
Tender Closing Date Target Volume (Million Tonnes) Secured Volume (Million Tonnes) L1 Price (USD/tonne CFR) Notes
Dec 19, 2024 N/A (implied high) 0.187 $369.75 (West Coast) East coast offer withdrawn; insufficient volume secured
Pre-June 30, 2025 1.5 0.229 $399 Impacted by Middle East conflict; well below target
July 7, 2025 2.0 To be determined Forecasted Current tender, high urgency
Table 3: Recent Indian Urea Tender Outcomes (2024-2025, USD/tonne CFR)
Synthesis of Expert Opinions and Market Expectations from Industry Platforms
Market experts and industry reports consistently convey a bullish outlook for urea prices through 2025-2026. This sentiment is largely driven by India's persistent and substantial demand. Experts note that global fertilizer affordability remains weak into 2025 due to sustained high urea prices. The outlook for urea prices was already bullish in early 2025, with specific anticipation of India re-entering the market.
Industry analysis highlights that India continues to be the primary buyer, stepping in to fill the supply gap created by reduced Chinese exports, with expectations that prices will climb through 2025-26 on the back of rising Indian purchases. The current India tender for 2 million tonnes is explicitly identified as a "major issue" supporting a "stable to strong" outlook for the urea market. This strong market consensus, shared across various platforms, will undoubtedly influence supplier behavior, leading them to hold firm on higher prices for the July 7th tender, confident in India's urgent need.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Supplier Participation and Offer Prices in Indian Tenders
Suppliers are not merely reacting to production costs but are strategically leveraging prevailing market conditions to optimize their offer prices in Indian tenders. They gain significant leverage from the ongoing global supply disruptions, particularly those stemming from the Middle East conflict. The anticipation of "massive Indian tenders" had already underpinned Saudi Arabian urea prices as early as March 2025, demonstrating how India's demand signals influence supplier pricing strategies even before tenders are formally announced.
Furthermore, large-volume procurement by countries such as India is explicitly recognized as a factor that creates price volatility on the spot market. This market characteristic incentivizes suppliers to offer higher prices, knowing that India's urgent and substantial demand will likely absorb these elevated bids. This strategic pricing, combined with the current tight supply environment, will undoubtedly push the L1 price higher in the upcoming tender.
V. Freight and Logistics: The Cost Component for Indian Imports
Freight and logistics costs constitute a significant component of the final CFR price for Indian urea imports, and this element is currently experiencing upward pressure.
Granular urea prices in June 2025 from Middle East FOB were in the range of $365–380 per tonne, while India CFR prices were quoted at $390–410 per tonne. This implies a freight component of approximately $25-30 per tonne for Middle East to India shipments during that period.
However, the broader global shipping market is facing significant cost increases. Major carriers have introduced General Rate Increases (GRIs) ranging from $1,000 to $3,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for containerized cargo, with further hikes planned that could see rates reach 2024 peaks. More specifically, a significant GRI of $2000 per container from the Indian Subcontinent and Middle East to North America became effective on July 1, 2025. While these specific figures are for containerized cargo and different routes, they signal a general tightening and increase in global freight costs driven by factors such as demand, fuel prices, and geopolitical risks. This upward pressure on the broader freight market will indirectly impact bulk fertilizer shipping rates as well.
Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran situation, also contribute to volatility in freight rates. This means that even if FOB prices were to stabilize, rising logistics costs would push up the final CFR price for India. Suppliers will factor in these firming freight costs, potentially adding a premium to their offers for the July 7th tender, pushing the CFR price higher than a simple historical average. The implied freight from June's prices may be an underestimate given the very recent GRIs and ongoing market volatility.
VI. L1 Price Forecast and Detailed Rationale for the July 7, 2025 Tender
Based on the comprehensive analysis of global and Indian market dynamics, the L1 price for the Indian urea tender closing on July 7, 2025, is projected to be in the range of USD 465 – 475 per tonne CFR.
Detailed Breakdown of the Projected L1 Price
● Base FOB Price (Middle East): The most recent and relevant Middle East FOB granular urea price data indicates a significant surge to $435 per tonne by late June 2025. This is a sharp increase from earlier June prices ($365-380/tonne) and March prices ($362/tonne). This escalation is directly linked to production halts in key Middle Eastern countries (Egypt, Iran) in mid-June due to regional conflicts. This establishes a new, higher baseline for suppliers' costs and expectations.
● Freight Component: While implied freight for Middle East to India in June was approximately $25-30 per tonne , the broader upward trend in global freight rates, including General Rate Increases (GRIs) effective July 1, 2025 , suggests that this component will be at the higher end of that range, or potentially slightly above, for the urgency and volume required. A conservative estimate for freight would be $30-35 per tonne.
● Supplier Premium/Leverage: India's market position is one of urgent need. Critically low domestic stocks, record sales, and lagging production have created a severe deficit. Compounding this, previous tenders have consistently failed to secure full required volumes, even at escalating L1 prices. Suppliers are acutely aware of India's immediate requirement for 2 million tonnes and the market-moving impact of Indian tenders. This grants suppliers significant leverage to demand a premium on their offers, reflecting the urgency and scarcity.
● Previous Tender Benchmarks: The recent L1 price of $399 per tonne CFR in a tender that secured only 229,000 tonnes against a 1.5-million-tonne target serves as a crucial lower bound. Given that the Middle East FOB market has tightened further and prices have surged to $435 per tonne since that tender, the L1 price for the July 7th tender must be substantially higher to attract sufficient volume and meet India's critical needs.
Combining the current Middle East FOB price of $435 per tonne with an estimated freight cost of $30-35 per tonne, the projected L1 price range for the Indian urea tender closing on July 7, 2025, is USD 465 – 475 per tonne CFR.
Comprehensive Rationale, Integrating All Market Factors
The forecast for the L1 price of the July 7, 2025, Indian urea tender is a synthesis of converging market pressures:
1. Acute Indian Demand: India's domestic market is experiencing unprecedented demand, driven by a strong and early monsoon season, leading to record sales and critically low inventories. The consistent failure of previous tenders to secure required volumes underscores an acute and immediate need for imports, making the 2 million tonne tender essential for national food security.
2. Global Supply Constraints: The global urea supply has been significantly tightened by recent geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. This has led to specific production halts in key exporting regions like Egypt and Iran in mid-June, directly impacting global FOB prices. Furthermore, China's continued export restrictions limit overall global availability, forcing importers to rely on a constrained pool of alternative suppliers.
3. Escalating Cost Base: Natural gas prices, a major input for urea production, are projected to be significantly higher in 2025. This directly increases production costs for suppliers, which will be passed on to buyers. Concurrently, global freight rates are under upward pressure, further contributing to the final CFR price for Indian imports.
4. Dominant Supplier Leverage: Suppliers are fully aware of India's urgent and substantial procurement needs. The market consensus among experts is decidedly bullish for urea prices through 2025-26, a sentiment largely driven by Indian purchasing activity. This strong seller's market empowers suppliers to demand higher prices, knowing that India, compelled by its domestic deficit, will likely accept these bids.
5. Historical Context and Price Floor: The L1 price of $399 per tonne CFR in a very recent tender proved insufficient to meet India's volume requirements. Given the subsequent sharp rise in Middle East FOB prices to $435 per tonne by late June , the L1 price for the July 7th tender must reflect this new, higher market reality to attract the desired 2 million tonnes. Any offers below this current market level are unlikely to be successful in securing significant volume.
Consideration of Potential Price Ranges and Influencing Variables
The projected range of USD 465 – 475 per tonne CFR accounts for the prevailing market conditions. However, the inherent volatility of the global fertilizer market means that certain variables could influence the final outcome:
● Upside Risk: Further escalation of geopolitical conflicts in key producing regions, additional unexpected production outages, a sharper-than-anticipated increase in natural gas prices, or unforeseen tightening of global freight capacity could push the L1 price towards the upper end of the forecast or even higher. The market's sensitivity to supply shocks remains high.
● Downside Risk: While less probable given current dynamics, a sudden and substantial increase in Chinese urea exports, a rapid and definitive resolution of Middle East conflicts leading to sustained production recovery, or a drastic and immediate decline in global energy prices could temper the L1 price. However, the overwhelming evidence points to persistent upward pressure for the immediate future.
VII. Conclusion and Short-Term Market Outlook
The Indian urea market stands at a critical juncture, facing a severe domestic supply deficit exacerbated by record demand and lagging domestic production. The RCF tender for 2 million tonnes on July 7, 2025, is therefore a high-stakes procurement event, crucial for stabilizing India's agricultural sector.
The global market is characterized by elevated prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and rising raw material costs. Recent Middle East FOB prices have surged significantly, and a consistent pattern of previous Indian tenders failing to secure sufficient volumes at increasing L1 prices underscores the tight supply environment and the strong leverage held by global suppliers.
Given these factors, the L1 price for the upcoming tender is projected to be in the range of USD 465 – 475 per tonne CFR. This forecast reflects the current high global spot prices, rising input and freight costs, and the significant leverage suppliers hold due to India's urgent and substantial demand.
Looking ahead, India's import dependency for urea is likely to persist through the remainder of 2025, particularly with continued strong monsoon-driven demand. Despite the government's strategic efforts to boost domestic production and reduce imports, the current supply gap necessitates ongoing procurement from the international market. The global urea market is expected to remain firm to strong through 2025-26, supported by sustained Indian buying and the unpredictable nature of Chinese export policies. While new production capacity is anticipated to enter the market around 2027, potentially offering some long-term price relief, the immediate outlook for the coming months is for sustained elevated prices and continued volatility. Stakeholders in the agricultural and fertilizer sectors should anticipate ongoing price fluctuations and potential supply challenges, necessitating vigilant market monitoring and proactive procurement strategies to ensure supply security.
Works cited
1. Indian urea sales hit monthly record in June | Latest Market News – Argus Media, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2706484-indian-urea-sales-hit-monthly-record-in-june 2. India's NFL issues tender to buy DAP | Latest Market News – Argus Media, https://www.argusmedia.com/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2706494-india-s-nfl-issues-tender-to-buy-dap 3. Global fertilizer affordability near three-year low | Latest Market News – Argus Media, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2706043-global-fertilizer-affordability-near-three-year-low 4. Urea Granular FOB Middle East Futures Historical Prices – Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/commodities/urea-granular-fob-middle-east-futures-historical-data 5. Nutrient affordability remains weak into 2025 | Latest Market News – Argus Media, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2646485-nutrient-affordability-remains-weak-into-2025 6. Fertiliser Report – 27 June 2025 | Building a more profitable and sustainable industry for Australian growers – GrainGrowers, https://www.graingrowers.com.au/news/fertiliser-report-27-june-2025 7. 2025 & 2026 Natural Gas Forecast – Bid On Energy Commercial Electricity, https://bidonenergy.org/2025-2026-natural-gas-forecast/ 8. Natural Gas Forecast & Price Predictions 2025: Prices Rebound Amid Tightening Supply-Demand Balance – NAGA, https://naga.com/news-and-analysis/articles/natural-gas-price-prediction 9. India Tender Supports Volatile Urea Market | CZ app, https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/india-tender-supports-volatile-urea-market/ 10. India's Urea Tender Falls Short, Potash Prices Rise | CZ app, https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/indias-urea-tender-falls-short-potash-prices-rise/ 11. Shipping Delays & Freight Cost Increases 2025 | Freightos, https://www.freightos.com/freight-blog/freight-rates-and-quotes/shipping-delays-and-cost-increases/ 12. Shipping from Indian Subcontinent & Middle East to North America? A GRI/GRA is coming up – Hapag-Lloyd, https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/news/2025/05/shipping-from-isc-middle-east-to-north-america-a-gri-is-coming-u.html 13. Urea Fertilizer Price Per Ton 2025: Global Trends, Analysis & Impacts – Farmonaut, https://farmonaut.com/blogs/urea-fertilizer-price-per-ton-2025-global-trends 14. 5 Fertilizers See Higher Prices, UAN32 Over $500 Per Ton for First Time Since May 2023, https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2025/07/02/5-fertilizers-see-higher-prices-500 15. Urea Price Forecast 2025: Market Outlook & Trends – Farmonaut, https://farmonaut.com/news/urea-forecasts-2025-shocking-global-market-predictions 16. Urea market developments – BC Insight, https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2025/05/03/urea-market-developments/ 17. India Urea Market Size & Share Analysis – Industry Research Report – Growth Trends, https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/india-urea-market 18. How Modi govt reduced urea imports – OpIndia, https://www.opindia.com/2024/04/heres-how-the-modi-govt-boosted-urea-production-agricultural-infrastructure-to-reduce-dependency-on-its-import/ 19. No offers under India's NFL buy tender for NPKs | Latest Market News – Argus Media, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2696909-no-offers-under-india-s-nfl-buy-tender-for-npks 20. Urea Price Index, Chart and Forecast 2025 – IMARC Group, https://www.imarcgroup.com/urea-pricing-report 21. Fertilizer Prices & Trends in 2025 – Green Gubre Group, https://www.greengubregroup.com/blogs/fertilizer-pricing-in-2025-market-volatility-global-supply-chains-and-seasonal-forecasts 22. India Urea Tender Rumours Drive Price Surge | CZ app, https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/india-urea-tender-rumours-drive-price-surge/
Which impurities lower the value of phosphate rock?
High P₂O₅ isn’t always enough!
🔍 Some impurities can decrease market value, reduce production efficiency, or even cause rejections at customs.
🧪 The most problematic impurities:
– Iron & Aluminum → Side reactions, higher sulfuric acid consumption, lower product purity
Dark-colored phosphate
– Magnesium (MgO) → Sludging during processing, reduced operational efficiency
– Carbonates → Excessive foaming, acid waste, high sulfuric acid demand
– Silica (SiO₂) → Abrasive wear on equipment, shortened production line lifespan
Grayish phosphate (seen in parts of Iraq and central Syria)
– High Fluorine (F) → Restricted in fertilizers and animal feed
– Heavy Metals (Cd, Hg, Pb) → Toxicity risks, failed lab tests and regulatory rejection
Morning. Thin activity on paper y'day, as some in holding pattern prior to India providing further mkt definition next week, while US holidays also limiting liquidity.
AG
Jul $430//$445
Aug $430//$445
Sep $420//$435
Brazil
Jul $440//$455
Aug $440//$450
Sep $425//$455
Egypt
Jul $450//$480
Aug $450//$470
Sep $435//$465
MAP Brazil
Jul $745//$765
Aug $735//$755
………
US paper mkts as of Weds COB
Nola
Jul $410//$415
Aug $412//$418
Sep $415//$425
Q3 $410//420
Q4 $390//$410
Q1 $390//$410
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720
Q3 $715//$730
Q4 $660//$690
Q1 $650//$670
-THE INDIA UREA TENDER AIMING TO SECURE 2 MILLION MT AND CLOSING JULY 7TH WILL GIVE PRICE DIRECTION ON UREA
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES KEEP GOING UP DUE TO TIGHT AVAILABILITY AND DAP CFR PRICES IN INDIA REPORTED AT USD 810 PMT UP FROM USD 636 PMT IN MARCH OF THIS YEAR
-STANDARD POTASH PRICES IN SE ASIA INCREASING ON THE BACK OF A TENDER IN INDONESIA WHILST AFFORDABILITY IS BECOMING A SERIOUS ISSUE IN BRAZIL
-AMMONIA PRICES BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE SUEZ APPEAR TO HAVE FOUND A FOOTING WITH GAS PRICES IN EUROPE COMING DOWN TO USD 12 MMBTU IN LINE WITH PRODUCTION COST
UREA
The urea market appears to be between a rock and a hard place. Both Iran and Egypt are back online producing. Iran has offered several cargoes with a base price of USD 420 PMT FOB with no traction among traders with bids sub USD 400 PMT. It appears that the volume offered is all coming from inventory. Small amount of Egyptian granular urea has been sold with a high of USD 460 PMT FOB for July shipment to Europe. India’s 2 million MT tender will be closing July 7th for shipment on or before August 22nd. Price discovery will be very interesting now that urea prices appear to be high versus grain values and affordability is an issue and the question is if the India tender prices will put the world on notice that prices are too high. The same can be argued in Brazil with affordability across all fertilizers becoming urgent.
China may play a role here and if the government releases another 2 million MT for shipment until September 1st for a total of 4 million MT prices of urea could be in for a small correction. The understanding is that of the first 2 million tranche around 1.7 million MT has been executed for export.
In Vietnam, a 5% Value Added Tax (VAT) will be applied to fertilizers starting July 1, 2025, according to the 2024 Law on VAT. This means that imported fertilizers will now be subject to this tax, which was previously exempt. The new law also expands the definition of taxable entities to include foreign organizations and individuals providing services in Vietnam without a permanent establishment. As a result, CaMau, the Petrovietnam gran urea producer, increased the price to 13,200 Dong per 1kg bags on July 2nd. These prices equate to around USD 495-500 per metric ton FOB.
In the Middle East producers have been reluctant to discuss business ahead of next week’s RCF tender for shipments to India by 22 August. Several have suggested price targets of $450pt fob, but acknowledge bid interest is currently lower, particularly for western markets that have also faced offers ex-China in recent weeks. At the height of the Israel-Iran conflict, spot business for July and August had taken place in the $478-525pt fob range. Elsewhere, an off-taker is in the freight market for a vessel for 45,000t of granular urea from Mesaieed, Qatar to ports in Brazil and Mexico to load in mid-to-late July.
Pupuk Indonesia tender results from two weeks ago at USD 452.11 PMT FOB saw an improvement late this week with one large parcel apparently sold at USD 462 PMT FOB.
The return by the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) to the market for 212,000t of granular urea closing July 7th is understood to be partially motivated by the expectation that a number of awards in the 16 June tender will not be fulfilled. As before, the prior tender saw EABC move to issue awards for four cargoes ex-China for July into August shipment.
Season in the Philippines is in full swing but farmers are reducing their purchases of fertilizers as rice farm gate prices are super low at PHP 9000-11000 per ton. One 50 kg Granular Urea/Prilled Urea bag sells wholesale at USD 26.5 – 28.5 per bag from importer to first level distribution point. Importers are now reluctant to engage due to very high prices being offered.
Philippines imports of urea for January-May were 319,000t, up from the 264,000t imported in January-May 2024. 106,000t of this came from Indonesia, 64,000t from Qatar and 46,000t from Brunei. May was the busiest month of the year so far, with 87,000t of urea imported, 42,000t of this from Qatar, 19,000t from Indonesia and 12,000t from Vietnam.
The outlook for urea prices will hinge on price direction from India’s tender closing on July 7th.
PHOSPHATES
MAP offers to Argentina have climbed above $800pt cfr, though fresh sales to the market have yet to be reported at these prices. Latest MAP deals to Argentina were reported at $785pt cfr last week.
One month ago, OCP reported the sale of 30,000t MAP to a trader for July loading to Latin America (excluding Brazil) at $760pt fob Morocco. At the time, OCP indicated the sale reflected $790-795pt cfr equivalent, with the destination understood to be Argentina.
DAP liquidity in Argentina is lacking, but market participants generally peg prices around $5-10pt lower than those for MAP. Last week, Argentina’s DAP prices were assessed at $780pt cfr.
DAP prices in India are now said to be USD 810 PMT CFR, up from USD 636 PMT CFR middle of March. And there appears to be no relief in sight with limited availability due to trickle down exports from China.
OCP of Morocco exported 4.9Mt phosphate fertilisers in the first five months of 2025, a 2.1% rise Y/Y, according to latest Office Des Changes data.
However, the level of increase is behind ongoing capacity increases and May exports reached 1.06Mt phosphate fertilisers, largely flat Y/Y.
This period regularly reflects lower overall volumes for the year from OCP due to weather constraints and maintenance at Jorf Lasfar during Q1 particularly. The majority of OCP’s exports are expected in H2 2025. Total phosphate fertiliser exports in the second half are forecast to average as high as 1.2Mt per month with DAP/MAP exports averaging 775,000t per month.
January through December 2024 exports reached a record 12.37Mt, up 13% Y/Y from 10.95Mt in the same period 2023 and 30% higher than 9.52Mt in 2022. These volumes were 1Mt above the 11.3Mt OCP exported in 2020, the previous record.
With OCP’s capacity rising to roughly 16.0Mt through 2025, the company is forecast to export 13.1Mt and produce 13.8Mt phosphate fertilisers in 2025 (86% of capacity). H1 2025 phosphate fertiliser exports likely reached 6.0Mt, up from 5.7Mt in H1 2024.
Notably DAP/MAP/TSP exports are forecast to rise as much as 1.5-1.6Mt in 2025 due partly to the absence of 800,000t NPS sales to Ethiopia. The expected 2025 total exports reflect as much as a 4.0Mt rise in availability over three years from OCP. Obviously, the on-again off-again export regime implemented by the Chinese government plays fully into the hands of OCP and it will be a massive uphill climb for Chinese processed phosphate producers to regain former glory.
Chinese DAP export prices are again seen generally higher this week though sales remain limited.
Further July-loading activity is now reported at $760pt fob China for roughly 30,000t DAP to Pakistan and 5-10,000t DAP to Japan. Still, a number of sources still put the latest DAP prices for Southeast Asia and Latin America at roughly $750pt fob.
Recent rumours suggested that China sold 6-8,000t DAP to the Philippines and roughly 10,000t DAP to Indonesia for July loading at roughly $750pt fob. Some reports of recent trader-deals for July loading were also indicated at $755-760pt fob China but these have yet to be confirmed.
DAP offers from China are now generally being reported at $770-780pt for remaining July and August availability, but no deals are indicated this high.
Chinese DAP suppliers are expecting Bangladesh to soon announce a major DAP/TSP tender which will be targeted for sales from China through H2.
Minimum export prices were recently set at $680pt fob China for DAP, a level which is as much as $80pt below current offers reported.
Latest DAP indications in much of Latin America reflect roughly $740-750pt fob China with offers rising. India DAP prices now net back to China at roughly $775pt fob, but there is no allowance to make sales to the market.
The China DAP price is assessed up an average of $9pt at $750-760pt fob pending further activity.
Latest Chinese MAP11-44 prices were last pegged at $580pt fob with offers at $585-590pt fob. Fresh 11-44 sales have been lacking with traders struggling to sell in Brazil above $600pt cfr and seeking further cargoes at no higher than $570pt fob China. However, minimum export prices were recently set at $570-580pt fob China.
China’s full-year 2025 DAP/MAP exports could be down as much as 47% Y/Y to 3.5-3.6Mt from 6.6Mt in 2024.
The outlook for prices will remain bullish with further increases to be expected over the next few weeks all due to lack of availability.
POTASH
Potash standard grade price benchmarks in Southeast Asia increased on the back of lingering tight spot supply and higher Pupuk Indonesia tender awards, while the domestic Chinese prices continued to climb this week. Standard grade MOP prices resumed their climb higher after a brief pause last week as the 35kt tender by Pupuk Indonesia closed at $375/t CFR, signalling an increase in prompt prices. The buyer is expected to return to the spot market to secure further supply in the near-term, sources said. Standard product in the region is now assessed at $350-375/t CFR, up from $345-360/t CFR last week. Granular MOP remains assessed at $370-385/t CFR. The Asian markets in early June received a clear price direction after India settled its quarterly contract at $349/t CFR, $64-66/t higher than the previous quarter. Following this settlement, Chinese buyers also awarded its 2025 potash supply contract at $346/t CFR. Both the contract prices set a floor for the southeast Asian benchmarks, while also providing an upward price signal, sources said.
Credit issues continue to plague the Brazilian market, and some sellers opt to take a wait and watch approach instead of pushing to sell. Offers in the spot market were heard at $365- 370/t CFR, while bids were around $360-365/t CFR. Granular grade potash was assessed in a wider range at $360-370/t CFR this week, slightly higher on the upper end of the range from last week’s assessment of $360-366/t CFR.
Potash prices are expected to slide slightly as affordability concerns grow but are still set to peak in September. But the market is facing an upside risk if demand comes in higher than expectations in the second half of the year.
AMMONIA
Sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish in the West on supply issues in North Africa that have impacted export availability to a considerable extent, while the outlook in the East is brighter for buyers on better supply as Iranian tonnes return. The loss of several cargoes from Algeria and Egypt on unplanned plant shutdowns was again the main driver of higher prices in Europe. Although potential capacity curtailments in Trinidad have yet to materialise, at least one facility in the US Gulf has experienced an outage. Several traders are struggling to find fob cargoes for lifting this month, hence the large number of tankers awaiting instructions at key export hubs. Assuming Algerian and Egyptian tonnes return in the near future, upward price pressure should ease and help to deflate cfr numbers. In the East, apart from some scheduled turnarounds in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, the market is in good shape and the recent volatility triggered by the Iran conflict has dissipated to a notable extent.
Prices do now appear to have found a floor on both sides of the Suez, though could remain largely stable through July as the market begins to find a footing. However, any confirmation of natural-gas curtailments – and subsequent supply cuts – in Trinidad could provide upside support going forward.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
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Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report July 4, 2025
*❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market showed weak downward movement, with price range reference of 2,285-2,295 yuan/ton, mainstream reference price down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. A major domestic refinery’s sales tender results fell significantly by 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous winning bid, severely impacting market confidence. Affected by this, most traders became unsettled and began adjusting their shipping strategies, driving the overall market to bottom out. For USD resources, Kuwait announced its July contract price at FOB $259/ton, down $28/ton from June contract price. Overall, traders’ expectations of price weakening have strengthened, with wait-and-see sentiment suppressing trading activity. The spot market is expected to show weak operation trends in the short term.
❤ Urea: Yesterday, domestic urea trading was moderate. After companies raised quotations, downstream follow-up slowed. Although the market negotiation center moved up slightly, follow-up sentiment became increasingly cautious. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable, with relatively limited fluctuation space.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Recently, the domestic synthetic ammonia market has shown regional differentiation trends. Northern regions are affected by phased weakening of terminal demand, with some manufacturers facing certain shipping pressure and adopting flexible pricing strategies to promote sales. Other regional markets are operating relatively stably, with minor fluctuations due to local facility adjustments. Overall, synthetic ammonia prices are expected to maintain narrow fluctuation patterns in the short term.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market continued weakly stable. Downstream manufacturers tested low-position purchases but resisted high prices. Some ammonium chloride companies still implement tentative pricing policies. Short-term demand remains weak, and the ammonium chloride market is expected to be dominated by low-position narrow adjustments.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market adjusted downward while remaining stable. Due to current mainstream prices being relatively high, downstream manufacturers showed low enthusiasm for purchasing. With no new market guidance, most adopted cautious wait-and-see approaches. The ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain stable with bearish tendencies in the short term.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market operated with weak fluctuations. Companies faced shipping pressure and flexibly adjusted quotation prices. Supply-demand relationships show no obvious improvement in the short term. If raw materials show no obvious positive support, the market may continue to maintain the current situation.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued its stable consolidation trend, with limited price fluctuations and trading mainly focused on actual order negotiations. Leading companies announced new prices, which basically met market expectations, and some downstream compound fertilizer companies continued minimal follow-up. Current market demand is overall weak, but supported by pending orders and autumn fertilizer demand expectations, the market will maintain stable observation operation in the short term. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained stalemate consolidation, with companies’ factory prices mainly stable. Hubei region’s 64% factory price maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders maintaining negotiations. The market mainly adopted cautious wait-and-see approaches, maintaining only small on-demand purchases, with moderate trading activity. The market will maintain consolidation operation in the short term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: Yesterday, domestic potash fertilizer market prices continued to maintain at relatively high levels. Domestic potassium chloride manufacturers had low facility operating rates, but new policies are gradually being implemented. Traders’ quotations varied, with 60% delivered prices mostly at 3,000-3,200 yuan/ton, with transactions negotiated individually. The potassium sulfate market trend was moderate, with slow shipment at high prices.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market was mainly observational. Companies successively held ordering meetings and introduced autumn advance payment schemes, but mostly focused on policy measures such as interest calculation, payment discounts, pickup warehouse supplements, sales meeting discounts, and guaranteed minimums. Price announcements remained scarce. Some upstream raw materials showed resilience, maintaining cost support for compound fertilizers, but mid-to-downstream markets showed wait-and-see attitudes, creating market stalemate. The compound fertilizer market is expected to undergo narrow consolidation amid observation in the short term.
As of July 3, 2025 (27th week), China's urea port sample inventory: 440,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the month before, an improvement of 15.49% from the month after. This cycle Yantai port, Tianjin port supply of large particles have arrived at the port, Rizhao port, Huanghua port, Zhenjiang port, Lianyungang port supply of small particles to the port, the rest of the port no significant change, the overall port inventory significantly improved.
Approx trade volumes by company according to PJ
Morning. Int'l paper saw Aug Brazil trade $445 y'day in otherwise thin activity. Nola urea moved higher on the day supported by grain markets, while Q3 DAP traded $720 (+$2 from Tues).
AG
Jul $430//$445
Aug $435//$445
Sep $420//$430
Brazil
Jul $440//$460
Aug $445//455 – traded $445
Sep $430//$450
Egypt
Jul $454//$480
Aug $454//$470
Sep $435//$465
Nola
Phys: $410 prompt; $407 July; $412-13 Aug
Paper:
Jul $405//$415
Aug $412//$418 – traded $415
Sep $415//$425 – traded $418
Q3 $410//420
Q4 $390//$410 – Nov traded $396
Q1 $390//$410
UAN Nola
Aug $250//$290
Sep $250//$290
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $715//$725
Sep $710//$720
Q3 $715//$730 – traded $720
Q4 $660//$690
Q1 $650//$670
MAP Brazil
Jul $745//$765
Aug $735//$755
*Phosphate Chemicals:
Yesterday, the phosphoric acid market maintained stable operations with localized production adjustments. Wet-process phosphoric acid mainstream factories kept quotations mostly stable, with moderate market inquiry activity and cautious trader operations. The yellow phosphorus market saw slight increases with continued cost support, but short-term transmission to thermal-process acid pricing remains limited, with thermal-process phosphoric acid companies primarily focusing on stable pricing and shipments.
For phosphate rock, high-grade phosphate rock quotations remained stable across regions, while low-grade phosphate rock saw slight transaction discounts. Phosphate rock companies maintained a price-supporting mentality. Reference pricing for 28% grade Hubei ship-board tax-inclusive transactions was 980-1,000 yuan/ton, while 25% grade high-magnesium phosphate rock ship-board tax-inclusive transactions maintained at 854 yuan/ton.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, domestic port spot market conditions stabilized with consolidation, with reference price ranges of 2,315-2,320 yuan/ton, mainstream reference prices unchanged from the previous trading day. Due to lack of substantial stimulating factors, market sentiment remained cautious with insufficient enthusiasm from both buyers and sellers, resulting in limited price fluctuations. Domestic resources mainly maintained stable operations, with Shandong refinery liquid sulfur prices narrowly adjusted downward to 2,250-2,260 yuan/ton. Focus on today’s domestic large refinery sales tender results for guidance.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw localized increases. In Hebei market, northern Qinhuangdao and Tangshan areas rose 30-40 yuan/ton driven by Liaoning price increases; southern Handan and Xingtai areas saw increases of 50 yuan/ton due to low operating rates combined with Shandong market rises. In Henan market, Jiyuan area acid plants benefited from smooth external sales due to short-term maintenance of downstream proprietary sulfur acid units, combined with external price increases, leading to general acid price increases of 30 yuan/ton. Sanmenxia market supply remained tight with major acid plants undergoing short-term maintenance and Shanxi area unit resumption below expectations, causing individual acid plant tender prices to rise significantly. Currently, Henan 98% smelting acid ex-factory transaction prices range around 560-630 yuan/ton, while Hebei 98% ore acid ex-factory prices range around 700-840 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, domestic urea market trading warmed up with futures prices rising. Urea company inventories declined, and order reception improved at major production and sales area urea plants. Today’s factory quotations are mainly stable with small increases. Current supply and demand remain loose, with the market primarily driven by short-term sentiment.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, synthetic ammonia markets showed mixed trends. Northern markets weakened at high prices due to increasing supply recovery trends, while southern markets maintained reasonable order reception atmosphere with catch-up increases under short-term shipping pressure, though shipment resistance has emerged. Market consolidation is expected in the near term.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, ammonium chloride market continued weak stability, with downstream manufacturers making tentative low-level purchases while resisting high prices. Some ammonium chloride companies still implement provisional pricing policies. Short-term demand remains weak, with narrow low-level adjustments expected for the ammonium chloride market.
Potash Fertilizer:
Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market has been in a high-level sideways consolidation trend, with trader quotations remaining firm while actual downstream factory demand follow-up is somewhat slow. Border trade currently has no spot arrivals, mainly featuring futures quotations. Mannheim potassium sulfate 52% powder ex-factory prices are mostly 3,650-3,900 yuan/ton, showing significant price differences.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market maintained stability, with Central China 55% powder ex-factory quotations around 3,380-3,400 yuan/ton for actual negotiation. Production companies have sufficient pending shipments with basically no inventory pressure, maintaining unchanged prices. Downstream autumn pre-orders are underway with light raw material demand. Upstream products maintain stable minor adjustments with costs remaining high. Overall, the MAP market will maintain consolidation and wait-and-see operations in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market continued consolidation trends, with companies mainly executing international and domestic pending orders. Ex-factory prices showed no significant changes, market wait-and-see sentiment persisted with only some major traders taking small volumes. Overall trading atmosphere remained light, with the market continuing stalemate consolidation operations in the short term.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market continued consolidation, currently in the autumn fertilizer pre-order stage. Industry participants are focusing on various company pricing situations. Current policies mainly involve interest-bearing payments, guarantees, and rebates, with mainstream prices not yet clear. The market continues short-term consolidation.
Industrial MAP:*
Yesterday, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market operated with consolidation, with no price fluctuations. Current domestic 73% industrial-grade MAP mainstream market average reference price is 6,250 yuan/ton, subject to actual negotiations. Factories focus primarily on export order shipments, with domestic traditional agricultural off-season and small-order just-in-time restocking. Short-term industrial ammonium market demand is light, with future developments requiring attention to market demand and new energy production scheduling.
Via China sources :
Contracts for Chinese urea FOB continue to be signed (with fewer large orders and more small ones), with prices for small granules quoted at USD 380-390 FOB; prices for large granules are quoted at USD 390-430 FOB, and there are still ongoing deals. Domestic small granule urea prices in Shandong are calculated at RMB 1,750 per tonne, equivalent to USD 259 FOB per tonne.
At present, there is a price difference of about 180 dollars between China and the Middle East, and there are no Chinese products being labeled in India.
As of May 26, 2025, China's export deals are expected to have reached approximately 1.7 million tons, with the following main destinations: (1) Ethiopia, (2) Chile, (3) Mexico, (4) Brazil, (5) Nepal, (6) Southeast Asia, and (7) Australia. It is also anticipated that South Africa will continue to purchase Chinese urea.
Ruichen: hi Phil
I have last 10k granular urea quota in hands, price can be 410FOB Tianjin, shipment in August, pls work on it, validity till 1700hrs this Friday China time
Sulphur prices : CHINA
– last deal done at around $280
– China domestic at RMB 2300-2305
MIDDLE EAST
– QSP & OSP at 258-265 FOB
MED/B.SEA/AFRICA
– MOH tender closing Thursday, 7KT
AMERICAS
– CMOC closed tender for 38KT.