*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $19/mt increase.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 22% capacity.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101046530-73398c7f28ca' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 36+ tons.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1464983953574-0892a716854b' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 20+ tons.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 25% capacity.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 20.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 31% capacity.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
Russian potash producer #Uralkali is first to settle a six-month MOP import contract with a consortium of Chinese buyers at $346/tonne CFR China.
The volume of MOP to be supplied until year-end is still under discussion.
Last week Uralkali and Belarus Potash Company (BPC) settled separate six-month import contracts with Indian Potash Limited (IPL) at $349/tonne CFR India.
China and India contracts are the next key developments
Based on prevailing spot prices in Asian markets, Profercy has been forecasting a 2025 China import contract settlement at a price of around $340pt cfr, which would mark a $67pt increase from the 2024 China price. We expect a 2025 settlement to be reached in June. China has typically settled annual contracts before India, but the latter likely requires fresh supply more urgently than China this year amid high demand for NPK production. We have been expecting a 2025 India contract settlement at a price in the range of $340-350pt cfr. Strong market rumours suggest a deal with India has already been concluded at the upper end of this range, though this has yet to be fully confirmed by the parties involved in negotiations.
2.) Demand has been strong in H1 2025, but affordability is worsening
Potash demand has remained strong so far this year, with the top five importing countries seeing a roughly 5% increase yr-on-yr in imports during Q1. However, affordability has generally weakened further over the past month with slight declines in crop prices and increases in MOP prices. In Brazil, granular MOP relative to soybean prices is now at its least affordable level since November 2022. With some forecasts suggesting crop prices are likely to soften further and MOP prices still seeing some upside potential, global MOP import demand growth is likely to slow in H2.
3.) Supply likely to improve in H2
A large-scale maintenance that has been ongoing in Belarus through H1 is expected to end by late June. Smaller maintenances in Russia are being conducted in Q2-Q3, but these are expected to have a more minimal impact on the global S&D balance. At the same time, production in Laos continues to ramp up, with an increase of around 1Mt/yr in capacity anticipated by the end of this year and further projects targeted over the medium term.
In summary, potash market sentiment remains relatively bullish for the time being. However, global MOP supply is expected to improve in H2 as demand slows slightly. As such, global potash market prices may not be far away from a ceiling.
In the past two years, Yang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has suffered a loss of 2.047 billion yuan! As it announced its intention to change its name for the fourth time in its history to Shanxi Lu'an Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. and welcome a new controlling shareholder, Shanxi Lu'an Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., it suddenly found itself at the center of a regulatory storm. Yang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. and its former controlling shareholder, Huayang New Material Technology Group Co., Ltd., both announced receipt of the "Notice of Initiation of Investigation" from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The investigation directly pointed to the fact that in 2021, Huayang Group had misused the funds of the listed company, leading Yang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. to be suspected of violating disclosure regulations. This marks another significant development in the challenging transformation journey of this long-established chemical enterprise.
It is rumored that China's loosening of urea export restrictions is expected to ease the rise in international prices
pressure
Release: 2025-06-27 1 hour ago
According to people familiar with the matter, China is loosening its ban on urea exports, a move that may ease the rising tensions in the Middle East.
International urea prices.
Bloomberg reported on Thursday (June 26), citing people familiar with the matter, that China's restrictions on urea exports will be lifted from this month.
wide.However, Chinese companies will still be subject to quota restrictions and in some cases will have to comply with the minimum shipping price.For India
Exports will still be restricted.
The Ministry of Commerce of China did not immediately respond to a fax seeking comment.