Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief 2025-7-7*
❤ Phosphate Rock: Last week, phosphate rock market maintained strong momentum with stable prices. Downstream phosphate fertilizer and phosphochemical companies operated at around 50% capacity, purchasing raw materials as needed. Mining companies gradually followed up on new orders with no immediate production-sales pressure. Price-supporting sentiment among phosphate rock enterprises dominated the market. Downstream new capacity demand mainly focuses on high-magnesium, high-phosphorus ore, and there remains a supply gap between high-magnesium production growth and downstream demand growth, making phosphate rock prices stable and difficult to move.
❤ Urea: Last week, the domestic urea market fluctuated within a narrow range. Supply remained at high levels while demand was relatively weak, with insufficient downstream follow-up. The market was influenced by export news, warming trading atmosphere somewhat, but still lacked substantial support. Short-term outlook suggests continued narrow consolidation. Future attention should focus on downstream follow-up performance and export-related developments.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, synthetic ammonia market sentiment varied, with regional adjustments as the main theme. Northern markets fell back after catching up on gains, while southern markets generally improved from low levels with some regional prices stabilizing. This week, synthetic ammonia market supply is expected to increase, with market stalemate and gaming anticipated to dominate.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market mainstream remained stable. With slightly increased downstream inquiries, some ammonium chloride companies raised quotes modestly, but downstream resistance to high prices kept transactions at low levels. Some companies continue implementing provisional pricing policies in July, with the market expected to continue operating at low levels this week.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Last week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market retreated from highs with stable trading atmosphere. Currently, international markets show heavy wait-and-see sentiment with low enthusiasm for domestic high-priced goods. Combined with high domestic caprolactam operating rates, market supply is relatively abundant. However, considering the approaching demand season, market bottom support remains, with short-term expectations for high-level downward consolidation.
❤ Melamine: Last week, the domestic melamine market operated with narrow fluctuations. Market demand was lackluster with poor trading atmosphere, and domestic operating rates remained high, pressuring company shipments. Without significant positive stimulus from raw materials, market conditions may continue weak fluctuation operations.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizers: Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained consolidation. Central China 55% powder mainstream ex-factory prices were 3,350-3,400 yuan/ton, with actual transactions remaining negotiable and low-end prices reflecting new major manufacturer pricing. Downstream purchasing sentiment remained wait-and-see, with raw material stocking based on individual situations. Upstream sulfur prices declined weakly, but factories had sufficient pending orders, with short-term trends remaining stable.
Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued stalemate trends. Companies focused on export orders with no significant changes in ex-factory prices. Hubei region 64% ex-factory prices maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders remaining negotiable. Market wait-and-see sentiment was strong with cautious trading, and downstream maintained only minimal as-needed purchasing. Short-term market outlook remains consolidation and observation.
❤ Potash Fertilizers: Last week, domestic potash fertilizer market prices continued rising. Market potassium chloride circulation sources were relatively limited. Although large factories and traders released goods to market, release volumes were not substantial, while trading between merchants remained active. Potassium sulfate manufacturers mostly followed potassium chloride price increases, but new order transactions were not active at high price levels.
❤ Compound Fertilizers*: Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market was mainly consolidating. Recently, companies have successively held ordering conferences. Besides policy incentives like interest calculations, some tentatively introduced staged order collection prices. Among these, 45% content high-nitrogen wheat fertilizer mainstream ex-factory prices were 2,350-2,550 yuan/ton, and 45% content high-phosphorus wheat fertilizer ex-factory prices were 2,700-2,800 yuan/ton. Downstream still maintains wait-and-see sentiment, with compound fertilizers continuing short-term consolidation.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 33% capacity.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1465101046530-73398c7f28ca' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 29% capacity.
*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1464983953574-0892a716854b' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 35+ tons.
Egypt: Alexfert has sold 5,000t of granular urea for July shipment at $470pt fob. The price is up $5pt on last done late last week and $15pt above the first reported sales following the latest production restarts. In all, at least 36,000t of granular business has taken place across 3-4 different producers since the middle of last week.
Sunday, 06 July 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Egypt: Alexfert has traded another 5,000t of granular urea at $470/t FOB Abu Qir for July shipment to a nearby market.
The sale is up $10/t on last week's business at $460/t FOB.
Nigeria : Dangote sold on Friday a 30,000t granular urea cargo for end-July shipment in the mid-high $430s/t FOB Lekki.
It follows its 25 June tender awards above $420/t FOB.