The U.S. Department of Agriculture said U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions eroded for a second straight week last week, although its ratings of crops in good to excellent shape did not decline as much as some analysts predicted in a Reuters poll.
A decline in ratings is normal as crops move toward maturity and dry down in fields ahead of the harvest, and analysts say bumper crops of both corn and soybeans are still expected.
The USDA said 68% of the U.S. corn crop was in good to excellent condition as of Sunday, down one point from a week earlier but the highest for this time of year since 2018, according to the agency's data. The rating had been expected to drop two points to 67% good to excellent, according to a Reuters poll of 11 analysts.
Farmers have also harvested 4% of their crop so far, the USDA said, compared with the average trade estimate of 5%.
Soybeans were rated 64% good to excellent, down one point from a week earlier but above the average analyst estimate calling for a two-point drop. The rating was slightly below the 65% of the crop rated good to excellent at the same time last year, but above the five-year average of 59%, according to USDA data. The U.S. spring wheat harvest advanced to 85% complete as of Sunday, up from 72% a week earlier and slightly ahead of expectations for 84%, while the winter wheat crop was 5% planted, in line with expectations.
China Morning Report (2025‑09‑09)
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Phosphate Rock:
In northern China, some beneficiation plants have halted operations for maintenance, tightening regional supply and pushing prices up by RMB 10/ton. In Liaoning, 33% grade phosphate rock is quoted at RMB 920/ton (tax‑inclusive ex‑works). Actual transactions are mainly on a “case‑by‑case” negotiation basis.
Agricultural‑grade Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Yesterday, the domestic MAP market remained weak. In Hubei, 55% powder MAP mainstream ex‑works prices were around RMB 3,350/ton, with actual deals negotiated. Mainstream producers lowered prices, dampening market sentiment. Downstream buying interest was low, and new order activity stayed sluggish. Demand shows little sign of improvement; short‑term outlook is weak with narrow fluctuations.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
Yesterday, the domestic DAP market remained in consolidation. Producers focused on fulfilling existing orders. In Hubei, 64% DAP ex‑works prices held at RMB 3,800–3,850/ton, with actual deals negotiated. Downstream end‑users were cautious, with limited acceptance of current high prices, mostly buying as needed. The short‑term market is expected to continue in a consolidating pattern.
Industrial‑grade MAP:
Yesterday, trading in industrial‑grade MAP was average. The mainstream domestic price for 73% industrial‑grade MAP was around RMB 5,740/ton, with actual deals negotiated. Prices fluctuated narrowly due to downstream demand. Downstream buyers showed a clear wait‑and‑see attitude. Short‑term outlook is weak‑to‑stable; future trends depend on plant operating rates and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
Currently, the yellow phosphorus market is in a supply‑strong, demand‑weak stalemate. Yesterday, suppliers struggled to hold prices; Leibo’s tender prices fell. Many downstream buyers preferred to buy on rising prices, not falling ones, leading to sluggish trading. Prices are expected to continue edging down today. Yesterday, ex‑works acceptance prices in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan were RMB 22,500–22,600/ton. Watch today’s Guizhou sales tender guidance and the pace of downstream restocking.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, phosphoric acid prices were stable. The thermal‑process market was steady, with sellers holding offers firm; early‑week inquiries were light, and sentiment was mostly wait‑and‑see. Purified wet‑process phosphoric acid offers were firm, supported by positive sentiment from the downstream new‑energy sector. In Sichuan, thermal‑process purified water‑grade phosphoric acid ex‑works was RMB 6,350–6,400/ton; in southern Jiangsu, delivered prices were RMB 6,700–6,800/ton, with actual deals negotiated by volume.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP) / Monocalcium Phosphate (MCP):
• Yunnan trade market: RMB 3,030–3,050/ton
• Sichuan trade market: RMB 3,150–3,160/ton
• Hubei trade market: RMB 3,240–3,250/ton
• Yunnan MCP/DCP: RMB 4,260–4,270/ton
• Guizhou MCP/DCP: RMB 4,300/ton (tight supply)
• Yunnan monohydrate DCP: RMB 4,700–4,750/ton
• Guizhou monohydrate DCP: RMB 4,750–4,850/ton
Sulphur:
Yesterday, the domestic sulphur spot market was average. Granular sulphur at Yangtze River ports was RMB 2,610/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Both USD‑denominated trade and downstream demand were acceptable, but high sulphur prices kept the market unstable, with supply and demand in a tug‑of‑war. Domestic resources mostly held steady; Shandong showed a slightly weaker outlook. Today, focus on a major refinery’s tender results and price adjustments from key producers.
Sulphuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulphuric acid market saw localized price cuts. Weakness in the MAP market reduced terminal buying interest, and some traders’ offers fell to low levels, pressuring acid plant sales. Over the weekend, major Hubei plants cut prices first; Jiangxi followed with a RMB 50/ton drop. Fujian’s main plant also cut RMB 50/ton for overlapping markets. Today, Anhui’s main producer cut RMB 50/ton; Zhejiang’s main producer cut RMB 30–50/ton. Current delivered prices for 98% smelter acid: Hubei RMB 650–750/ton; Guangxi RMB 760–820/ton.
Anhydrous Iron Phosphate:
The market shows crowding at the low end and strength at the high end. Mainstream producer quotes range from RMB 10,000–11,000/ton, tending toward the lower end. Overall, prices are “stable with a slight bias.” Industrial‑grade MAP and phosphoric acid prices are weak; ferrous sulphate supply is tight. End‑market demand for energy storage is strong, with stable momentum in the power sector. However, processing fees vary, customer‑supplied orders fluctuate, and new entrants are releasing capacity, intensifying competition. The market is expected to remain in a game of supply‑demand balance, with some downside risk.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):
Prices are stable. Mine‑side supply uncertainty remains; lithium carbonate inventories are being drawn down, with spot prices steady. Phosphate iron prices are stable, but bidding remains competitive. Cost‑side support is steady. Downstream demand from overseas commercial/industrial storage and domestic independent storage remains strong, with top battery makers’ orders full. The market is watching upstream supply disruptions and downstream demand boosts. Today’s transaction prices:
• Power‑type LFP: RMB 33,400–36,500/ton
• Energy‑storage‑type LFP: RMB 32,400–34,400/ton
Synthetic Ammonia:
Market sentiment is mixed, with both rises and falls. In central China, prices are under pressure due to previously high levels and average recent order intake, likely continuing downward. Other regions are mostly steady‑to‑firm, but earlier bullish factors have been digested. Regional price gaps are widening, and market observation remains active. Short‑term outlook is mostly stalemate.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market was mostly stable, with some negotiated deals. Falling raw material prices affected sentiment. In northern China, autumn fertilizer restocking is underway, with companies focused on moving product; some deals are negotiated case‑by‑case. Short‑term outlook is steady overall, with slight weakness in some areas.
Good morning and week ahead, latest levels;
Sep AG $435/$445
Oct AG $420/$430
Nov AG $410/$430
Sep Egypt $425/$445
Oct Egypt $415/$435
Nov Egypt $400/$435
Sep Brazil $430/$445
Oct Brazil $420/$425
Nov Brazil $400/$420
Sep AS Brazil $172/$180
Oct AS Brazil $169/$173
Nov AS Brazil $166/$171
Sep MAP Brazil $680/$710
Oct MAP Brazil $660/$695
Nov MAP Brazil $660/$695
Sep SSP Brazil $185/$210
Oct SSP Brazil $185/$205
Nov SSP Brazil $180/$205
Morning. As NFL tender closed with a massive 5.6+m tonnes offered into India, Urea paper values weakened last week, w/ final volumes to be awarded now awaited. Mkts framed:
AG
Sep $438//$450
_[Sep traded $445 last week]_
Oct $420//$440
_[Oct traded $435 l/w]_
Q4 $410//$430
Cfr Brazil
Sep $440//$448
Oct $420//$429 – traded $435, $428, $425 Fri
_[Oct traded $451-$425 l/w]_
Nov $415//$423
Egypt
Sep $440//$456
Oct $420//$440
_[Oct traded $440-$433 l/w]_
Nov $416//$433
cfr Brazil Amsul
Sep $170//$180
Oct $165//$178 – traded $170 Fri
Nov $160//$175
Nola
Phys: Nov traded $385 Fri
Paper:
Sep $395//$410
Oct $388//$395
Nov $380//$387
Dec $380//$390
Jan $383//$390
UAN Nola
Sep $300/$345
Oct $300//$330
DAP Nola
Sep $770//$790
Oct $735//755
Q4 $725//$750
Q1 $665//$715
MAP Brazil
Sep $660//$705
Oct $650//$693
Nov/Dec $685 Offer
Xinjiang Xinji has been put into operation with a capacity of 1.04 million tons. Currently, it is producing small-sized particles with a daily output of 1,400 tons.
Morning Analysis:
Last week, the domestic urea market experienced narrow and low-level fluctuations. There were few positive factors to support the market, new contract transactions slowed down, and the Indian bidding news did not significantly boost the sentiment of the spot market. Downstream factories continued to make purchases in moderation when prices were low, leading to a tense and cautious market atmosphere. It is anticipated that the market will remain in a state of fluctuating weakness in the near term.
Fertilizer Industry China Morning Report – 8 Sept 2025:
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❤ Urea
Last week, the domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at low levels. Positive support within the market was hard to find, new order transactions slowed, and news of the Indian tender did not lift sentiment in the spot market. Downstream factories mainly maintained moderate, opportunistic purchases at low prices, with a strong atmosphere of stalemate and wait‑and‑see. In the short term, the market is expected to remain in a weak, volatile state.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia
Last week, the synthetic ammonia market improved overall due to plant maintenance, delayed restarts from equipment failures, and the conclusion of major events. However, as prices rose and supply gradually recovered, the overall supply–demand balance loosened. Downstream buyers were cautious about purchasing at high levels, and there was some pressure at the top end of the market. This week, the market is expected to operate steadily but under pressure.
❤ Ammonium Chloride
Last week, the domestic ammonium chloride market moved down weakly, with light trading activity. Many ammonium chloride producers saw poor order intake. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to decline, and their willingness to purchase ammonium chloride remained low. Short‑term demand is unlikely to improve, and the market is expected to continue weak operation this week.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate
Last week, the ammonium sulfate market trended downward. Domestic supply was relatively abundant, and some concluded deals were auctioned, affecting traders’ confidence. At the same time, international demand remained weak, with price‑cutting becoming the norm and pessimism dominating sentiment. In the short term, the ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain weak.
❤ Melamine
Last week, the domestic melamine market operated in a weak, consolidating pattern. Supply–demand fundamentals were soft, new order transactions were scarce, and some producers built up inventories. This week, with insufficient positive drivers, a further slight price drop cannot be ruled out.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizers
• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): Last week, the domestic MAP market remained weak, with prices stable to slightly higher. Hubei 55% powder ex‑factory prices were around 3,400 CNY/ton. Market sentiment was subdued, and new order transactions were limited. Raw material prices stayed high with slight adjustments, keeping costs elevated, but downstream demand was weak and purchasing cautious. The overall market remained in a stalemate, likely to continue weak consolidation in the short term.
• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Last week, the domestic DAP market atmosphere improved somewhat. Ex‑factory prices showed no significant change, with Hubei 64% product at 3,800–3,850 CNY/ton, negotiated for actual orders. Inquiry activity increased, 64% supply was relatively tight, and prices remained firm. However, actual terminal demand follow‑through was limited, with most buyers purchasing as needed. The market is expected to continue a consolidating trend in the short term.
❤ Potash Fertilizer
Last week, high‑end domestic potash prices saw a slight pullback. Downstream factory demand was limited, support was insufficient, and overall transactions were not active. Some traders began selling off the small amounts of stock they still held. Potassium sulfate producers had low operating rates, but overall supply was still adequate, and the oversupply situation persisted.
❤ Compound Fertilizer
Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market operated in a narrow consolidation, with some regions showing stable prices on the surface but quiet reductions underneath. Reference price for 45%S (14:16:15 / 3×15) was 2,880–3,000 CNY/ton ex‑factory. Early‑September wheat fertilizer shipments were average, but as terminal application approached, market distribution accelerated and replenishment orders began to increase. With little change in recent raw material costs, companies focused on promoting autumn shipments. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to remain in consolidation.
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell on Friday as sluggish export demand and technical selling weighed on the market and as traders awaited next Friday's monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture crop supply and demand report.
S&P Global Commodity Insights on Friday estimated the average U.S. 2025 soybean yield at 53.8 bushels per acre, with production at 4.306 billion bushels, above USDA's August outlook. Other private forecasts this week have projected yields and production below USDA's latest outlook, including Allendale and StoneX.
The USDA on Friday said net new-crop U.S. soybean export sales in the week ending August 28 fell to 818,474 metric tons, in line with trade estimates but the lowest in a month. Top importer China has yet to book any U.S. new-crop purchases amid ongoing trade tensions with Washington.
China has been booking Brazilian soybean purchases for shipments this autumn. Brazil's soybean exports in September were seen reaching 6.75 million metric tons, up from 5.16 million tons in the same month last year, according to grain exporters' association Anec.
CBOT November soybeans settled 6 cents lower at $10.27 per bushel, down 2.6% in the week. The actively traded contract hit overhead resistance at its 20-day moving average and later breached technical support at its 100-day average.
CBOT December soymeal settled 30 cents higher at $284.00 per short ton.
CBOT December soy oil ended 0.70 cent lower at 51.23 cents per pound.
Phosphate Fertilizer Market Update – August 2025
The global phosphate market continues to show dynamic shifts as we head into mid – Q3 2025. Here’s your quick-hit rundown:
📈 Market Trends
• India’s DAP Surge: India began August with 1.75 million tonnes of DAP in stock, up 181,000 tonnes from July. Imports hit 864,000 tonnes, the highest in nearly two years, driven by long-term offtake agreements with Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
• Price Stabilization: The Indian government is urging importers to avoid paying above $810/tonne CFR, signaling a cautious approach to price inflation.
• Production Priorities: Domestic producers are favoring NPKs and NPS over DAP due to better margins, keeping DAP production steady but not expansive.
🌍 Global Developments
• US Tariffs: New tariffs on phosphate imports to the US are expected to impact supply and affordability this autumn.
• Canada’s Low-Carbon Push: V6 Agronomy launched the country’s first low-carbon phosphate fertilizer terminal, signaling a shift toward sustainability.
• Algeria & Angola Projects: New agreements and field trials in Algeria and Angola are expanding phosphate production capacity across Africa.
🔮 Outlook
• Analysts predict steady prices into early Q4 2025, though risks remain due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors.
• Demand from South and Southeast Asia continues to drive global consumption, while battery manufacturers are increasingly sourcing phosphate rock for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries.
LONDON (ICIS)– In India, looks like acceptance has touched as much as 3.8 million tonnes including 2.1 million tonnes for the west coast and 1.7 million tonnes for the east coast. Not sure if there is so much cargo available globally until 30 October. NFL’s target was 2 million tonnes in its urea tender and it may stick to this volume.
Puneet bought a Chinese cargo last night from CNAMPGC at 434 fob <This message was edited>
Brz gran urea: Offer of Nigerian, Uzbek and Algerian down to $440 cfr vs bidding at $430 cfr but no business. Chinese prills traded at $420 cfr. Some say gran urea prices have to come down to $400 cfr equiv for buying to pick up inland.
Oct Brz paper trades 443, 441, 442, 440, 440
-INDIA UREA TENDER RECEIVED A RECORD 5.6 MILLION MT OFFERS AND LOWEST PRICES USD 462.45 CFR AND USD 464.70 CFR AND IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE TO THINK THAT UREA PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CORRECT POSSIBLY TO BELOW USD 400 PMT FOB MIDDLE EAST
-THE OUTLOOK FOR PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES IS BEARISH WITH MORE PRODUCT BECOMING AVAILABLE
-POTASH PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN THE MONTHS AHEAD
-AMMONIA PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE AFTER A LARGE JUMP IN THE TAMPA SEPTEMBER CONTRACT PRICE
UREA
In stark contrast to the prior two inquiries, India’s latest foray has brought with it a sharp correction in global urea values. Offers into the 2 September National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) tender were at $462.45-464.70pt cfr, more than $65pt below those in the 4 August tender. Greater competition was inevitable with producers holding September tonnes and open for October, while Chinese supply has been more assured. Chinese products are understood to feature prominently amongst the tonnes offered at the sharpest levels into the east coast. Counters were issued today with participants in the tender now in discussions with producers regarding availability. Availability from China, Russia, SE Asia and the Middle East would imply that NFL will not struggle to secure the 2m. tonnes targeted, with some suggesting the state agency could move to book greater volumes given India’s persistently challenging stock position. In any case, business is not assured, suggesting that producers will need to be more flexible on pricing than they have been for some time. Implied netbacks from the west coast reflect either side of $450pt fob Middle East, sub- $440pt fob Nigeria and barely over $400pt fob Baltic. Sales tenders have seen spot products sold at sharper levels, down to $436pt fob Middle East. For eastern suppliers, Indian netbacks are in the mid to high-$440s pt fob China, or the low-$440s pt fob SE Asia. In several regions September shipments are still available. Nigerian products have been on offer via sales tenders, with this including up to three cargoes. Recent offerings Ex Indonesia have not led to business. North African producers are still holding material having seen little real interest for some time. India’s pressing need for urea imports had driven global prices to multi-year highs, but other markets have been much more price sensitive. Since August, no other buyers have been willing to support comparable spot values, consistently targeting cheaper products, deferring inquiry or switching to other products. Of late, lower quotes have emerged in Brazil with offers reported sub-$450pt cfr ahead of press time while the offseason Nola market is holding just above $400ps ton. The market will now be keenly watching the final volumes to be secured by NFL, and more importantly, the extent of participation from China and the implications for other suppliers.
It is not inconceivable to foresee further correction in prices and that FOB levels in the Middle East could fall sub USD 400 PMT FOB. Continued oversupply of product will support such correction.
PHOSPHATES
While the tone in DAP/MAP markets remained relatively bearish, with prices on a downward trend after recently reaching a ceiling following an extended rally, fresh DAP tender announcements offered some support. The market direction was illustrated by results on the latest sales tender from Egypt's NCIC, which received lower prices on DAP, TSP and SSP than the seller's previous session. The announcement of a new tender from Ethiopia's EABC, seeking 540,000 t DAP, gave some optimism to suppliers, with the tender likely to absorb much of the additional export quota allocation from China. Bangladesh’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) also issued a new purchase tender seeking 165,000 t DAP and 110,000 t TSP, though much of this is likely to supplement volumes not awarded in the importers 5 August session. Both of the above tenders are set to close on 16 September. China suppliers will be targeting both tenders, particularly Ethiopia, as their desired FOB prices proved something of a sticking point on the previous Bangladesh tender. Still, at least some cargoes from China are understood to have been awarded in that session. Chinese exporters may be less flexible now that the export price floor for DAP has been increased to $780/t FOB. Still, the key India DAP benchmark was assessed down this week at $806-809/t CFR from $809-810/t. The assessment had been stable at $810/t CFR flat for three weeks before declining slightly last week. It is still up from $632-634/t CFR at the end of February and $690-700/t CFR at the start of May. Sentiment has turned more bearish amid a high volume of arrivals and slower demand, with many sources pegging prices at $800-805/t CFR.
A price ceiling appears to have been reached as buyer resistance to high prices grows across the globe. Further price declines are expected over the coming months, though prices are likely to remain historically high given limited overall global availability.
POTASH
Potash prices were broadly stable on limited demand, with Brazil rumoured to be softer, while granular MOP in Southeast Asia edged up by $5/t. All eyes were on Brazil this week as potash prices held steady, though downside pressure looms on the horizon. Granular spot prices remained stable at $355–360/t CFR, with producers maintaining offers at $360/t CFR for September shipments. However, whispers of $350/t CFR deals continue to circulate, particularly for smaller volumes, and a sale at Santarem at this level remains unconfirmed. With weak demand, buyers are likely to hold off, waiting for lower prices as the market sentiment stays bearish. Southeast Asian MOP prices remain broadly stable amid subdued demand and limited firm offers. The standard benchmark held steady at $360–383/t CFR, while smaller volume deals firmed up to $390–400/t CFR. However, debate persists over the viability of the $360/t CFR level. Granular MOP prices gained $5/t, reaching their highest point since mid-2023, supported by stronger Thai prices. Meanwhile, sustained palm oil prices continue to bolster the region’s affordability compared to other markets.
The outlook for potash prices is a decline in the coming months, driven by weakening demand and reduced affordability due to the lower crop prices. Brazil has led the downturn so far.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices remain supported heading into the final weeks of Q3, with supply constraints continuing to provide support to benchmarks on both sides of the Suez, including at Tampa, where Yara and Mosaic agreed to another $53/t increase for September this week. The latest upwards revision at Tampa means the benchmark has now increased $125/t in the space of two months, with the index also, in theory, facing an additional 15% tariff on tonnes sourced from Trinidad. The increase this time around has again largely been attributed to regional supply tightness, stemming mainly from North Africa. At the same time, Mosaic has faced logistical issues that have prompted it to return in earnest to the seaborne market, with its barge – used to float tonnes across the US Gulf to its Florida facility – undergoing a spell in dry dock.
Ammonia prices should again at the very least remain stable over the coming weeks, with further increases on both sides of the Suez also possible.
China Industry Chain Morning Brief: (2025-09-05)
Phosphate Rock:
Phosphate rock production and sales remain balanced. Mainstream mines maintain firm pricing. Downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises continue operating at over 60% capacity. Coupled with new demand from wet-process purified phosphoric acid capacity, this jointly forms rigid support for phosphate rock prices. In the short term, the tight supply situation in the north may persist, while the southern market is expected to continue stable operations.
Agricultural Ammonium:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to operate weakly. Hubei 55% powder was quoted at around ¥3,400/ton ex-factory, with actual transactions remaining negotiable. Raw material sulfur prices declined slightly, but costs remain high. Downstream industry capacity utilization is low, demand is limited, and new order trading sentiment is weak. A short-term weak consolidation is expected.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market operated with a slightly warm tone. Enterprise ex-factory prices remained mostly stable. In Hubei, 64% ex-factory prices held at ¥3,800–3,850/ton, with actual orders negotiated. Market trading atmosphere improved compared to earlier periods, inventory turnover accelerated, and downstream procurement was demand-driven. In the short term, the market is expected to maintain steady consolidation.
Industrial-Grade Monoammonium Phosphate:
Yesterday, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate prices saw slight loosening. The mainstream market average price for domestic 73% industrial-grade MAP was around ¥5,750/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case-by-case. Overall market demand was sluggish, and holders faced pressure to sell. Industrial MAP prices declined slightly. However, due to cost factors, prices may remain consolidated. In the short term, industrial MAP prices are expected to run weakly and steadily. Future trends depend on enterprise operating rates and raw material conditions.
Yellow Phosphorus:
Yesterday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market showed a weak and stable trend. Prices remained temporarily stable, but actual trading was light. Mainstream large factories in Yunnan quoted at ¥22,500/ton on acceptance terms, but enterprises jointly held back on selling. Low-price resources were limited in external sales. Especially after the Guizhou ¥22,600/ton split bid results were released, suppliers attempted to stabilize prices through supply control. However, downstream purchasing willingness was weak, inquiries were inactive, and traders mostly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Actual transaction negotiations were sparse, and overall market supply-demand contradictions were prominent. Current mainstream transaction prices:
• Yunnan and Sichuan: ¥22,500–22,550/ton
• Guizhou: ¥22,550–22,600/ton
Specific transactions are negotiated case-by-case.
Phosphoric Acid:
Yesterday, wet-process acid prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. In some regions, wet-process purified acid factories had decent order follow-through. As the price adjustment cycle approaches, market sentiment is turning cautious. Yellow phosphorus prices were weak but stalemated. Thermal-process phosphoric acid costs remained temporarily stable. In the short term, industry participants are watching upstream raw material trends. In Sichuan, thermal-process purified phosphoric acid ex-factory prices were around ¥6,350–6,400/ton.
Dicalcium Phosphate:
• Yunnan trade market mainstream reference price: ¥3,050–3,070/ton
• Sichuan trade market mainstream reference price: ¥3,150–3,160/ton
• Hubei trade market mainstream reference price: ¥3,240–3,250/ton
• Yunnan mono/dicalcium phosphate market mainstream price: ¥4,260–4,270/ton
• Guizhou mono/dicalcium phosphate market mainstream price: ¥4,300/ton
• Yunnan dihydrate DCP market price: ¥4,700–4,750/ton
• Guizhou dihydrate DCP market price: ¥4,750–4,850/ton
Pesticides:
Glyphosate market showed a stable to strong trend. Mainstream transaction prices remained high. Recently, overseas formulation orders increased, and operators’ expectations rose. Reference price for 95% glyphosate technical grade: ¥27,200–27,500/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case-by-case.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the sulfur spot market continued to show weak sentiment. However, demand in the southwest provided some support. Volume and price were below expectations. Yangtze River granular sulfur reference price: ¥2,590–2,595/ton, down ¥10–25/ton from the previous day. USD quotations remained high. Market sources reported CFR China at $318–320/ton, pending confirmation. Domestic resource market remained mostly stable. Today’s focus is on spot market trading conditions.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw regional adjustments. In Guangxi, downstream chemical industries faced cost pressure and had limited acceptance of high-priced sulfuric acid. In surrounding areas like Guangdong, trading activity increased. Due to low inventories at acid plants, some spot prices rose. In Zhejiang, domestic liquid sulfur resources rose again recently, putting cost pressure on acid enterprises. After previous price hikes, acid shipments remained stable. Jiaxing acid enterprises raised prices slightly yesterday.
Current prices:
• Guangxi 98% smelting acid delivered price: ¥760–820/ton
• Zhejiang 98% smelting acid ex-factory price: ¥610–670/ton
Iron Phosphate:
Anhydrous iron phosphate prices are stuck in a “difficult to rise or fall” stalemate, fluctuating within a narrow range in the short term. Mainstream factory offer prices remain at ¥10,000–11,000/ton. High-end transactions provide limited support to manufacturers, while low-end transaction price competition intensifies.
Raw materials:
• Wet-process phosphoric acid factory inventories remain low; factory quotations mostly unchanged.
• Industrial-grade MAP market trades on demand; prices remain stable.
• Today’s cost side remains stable and under observation.
• Downstream lithium carbonate prices fluctuate; market sentiment remains cautious.
• Lithium iron phosphate prices remain stable.
Iron phosphate prices are expected to remain in a stalemate.
Lithium Iron Phosphate:
Lithium iron phosphate market prices are mainly trending downward.
• Lithium carbonate supply-side news disturbances persist; spot prices fluctuate.
• Iron phosphate enterprises find it difficult to raise prices; prices remain in consolidation.
• Overall, lithium iron phosphate cost support is weak and stable.
Downstream market:
• Energy storage demand remains at previous levels.
• Power battery demand has grown compared to earlier, but year-on-year growth has slowed.
Short-term forecast: lithium iron phosphate will fluctuate based on raw material cost logic.
Today’s transaction prices:
• Power-type lithium iron phosphate: ¥33,400–36,500/ton
• Energy storage-type lithium iron phosphate: ¥32,400–34,400/ton
Synthetic Ammonia:
Supply and demand in the synthetic ammonia market are increasing simultaneously. Some regions are exploring price hikes, but high prices have led to a wait-and-see attitude. Many await follow-up from lower-priced regions and demand recovery. Continued attention is needed on new capacity ramp-up. In the short term, regions with decent order-taking may still see supplementary price increases. Most areas are expected to remain stable with consolidation and observation.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market was mostly stable with minor fluctuations. Upstream raw material volatility was minimal, continuing to support market stabilization. Enterprise quotations remained stable, with some actual transactions showing flexibility. As environmental production restrictions end, operating rates in some regions are expected to rise. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market is expected to trend stable overall, with minor regional fluctuations and gradually increasing supply-demand activity.
Hydrogen Peroxide:
Yesterday, the northern hydrogen peroxide market remained stable, while many southern regions continued steady operations. Supply was generally stable, and downstream demand remained steady. Water enterprises were actively prioritizing shipments. In Anhui, supply-side facilities operated steadily, and major production areas faced little inventory pressure. Transaction prices remained firm. Given expectations for increased hydrogen peroxide production, product volume is rising. Market participants are expected to focus on active shipments, with reduced intention for further price increases.
#Pakistan's Urea sales for Aug 2025 up 46% YoY and 34% MoM; Inventory at 1.06mn tons
▪️ As per Topline Securities Ltd , Pakistan’s fertilizer market staged an extraordinary rebound in Aug 2025, with Urea sales clocking in at 816k tons — up 46% YoY and 34% MoM. This rally was not demand-led alone but was largely catalyzed by manufacturer-led discounting, particularly EFERT’s average Rs269/bag cut, which spurred both farmer uptake and pre-buying by dealers.
▪️ This will take 8M2025 Urea offtake to 3.77mn tons, down 10% YoY compared to 4.21mn tons in 8M2024, mainly due to weak farm economics.
▪️ The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 1.06mn tons in Aug 2025, down from 1.23mn tons in Jul 2025.
▪️ Company wise, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) has the highest inventory of 493k tons followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) of 272k tons, and FATIMA of 228k tons.
▪️ Among the companies, EFERT is expected to record massive increase of 71% YoY in urea sales to 278k tons in Aug 2025 while FATIMA is expected to record a urea sales of 173k tons, up 32% YoY followed by FFC of 323K tons, up 29% YoY in Aug-2025.
▪️ Total DAP sales during Aug-2025 is anticipated to be 125k tons, up 41% YoY and up 17% MoM. In 8M2025, total DAP offtake is anticipated to clock in at 687k ton, down by 14% YOY.
▪️ Company wise data suggests, FFC and EFERT are likely to record sales of 107k tons and 7k tons respectively, followed by others of 11k tons in Aug 2025.
▪️ Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 311k tons in Aug 2025 compared to 312k tons in Jun 2025 and 232k tons in Aug 2024.
📌 The Road Ahead
While discounts have delivered a temporary boost, Topline expects Urea inventories to remain elevated, with projections of 1.4mn tons by Dec 2025 amid demand disruptions from recent floods. The sector now faces a classic paradox: high sales momentum in the short term but lingering risks of inventory overhang and pricing pressure in the medium term.