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Due to environmental inspections in northern Henan Province, some compound fertilizer plants in Huanghe, Langfang, Baoding, and Xingtai have reduced production or shut down.
Baoding Municipal Eco-Environmental Protection Committee Office
Baoding Eco-Environmental Office Letter [2025] No. 37
Notice on Initiating Level II Emergency Response Measures for Heavy Air Pollution
To: All County (City, District) Governments, Development Zone Management Committees, and Member Units of the Municipal Heavy Air Pollution Emergency Response Office:
According to a joint consultation by the Provincial Eco-Environmental Emergency and Heavy Pollution Weather Forecasting Center, the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, and the Provincial Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Environmental Meteorological Center, it is predicted that starting from December 26, the surface winds in our city will be mainly southerly, overall humidity will increase, and atmospheric dispersion conditions will deteriorate.
During this period, influenced by alternating northerly and southerly winds, pollution will shift and accumulate. On the 29th, pollution will slightly alleviate due to short-term northerly winds. From the 30th to the 31st, winds will turn southerly again; due to the backflow of pollution, a moderate or higher pollution process will occur again. From January 1, 2026, influenced by cold air, this pollution process will basically end. To mitigate the impact of polluted weather on public health, with the approval of the Municipal Government, a Level II Emergency Response for heavy air pollution will be initiated at 12:00 on December 26, and is expected to be lifted around January 1, 2026.
All relevant units must immediately carry out work in accordance with local and departmental heavy air pollution emergency plans and communicate this notice to all enterprises and construction sites.
I. Fully Implement Emergency Response Emission Reduction Measures
1. Industrial Enterprise Control Measures:
Local governments and management committees shall, based on the 2025 latest revised emergency emission reduction list for fixed sources, strictly supervise industrial enterprises to ensure the implementation of emission reduction measures.
2. Mobile Source Control Measures:
Except for urban operation guarantee vehicles and special vehicles on duty, heavy and medium-duty diesel and gas cargo trucks, three-wheeled vehicles, low-speed trucks, and tractors are prohibited from traveling within urban built-up areas and county (city) urban areas.
The use of National II and below non-road mobile machinery is prohibited in construction sites, industrial plant areas, and industrial parks (except for emergency repair machinery).
For industries such as cement clinker, ready-mixed concrete, ready-mixed mortar, and asphalt concrete: under permitted transport conditions, highway transportation of materials and products must use pure electric, fuel cell heavy trucks, or National VI emission standard heavy trucks (including gas).
Other units involved in raw material and product transport are prohibited from using National IV and below emission standard heavy cargo vehicles.
3. Area Source Control Measures:
Sand and gravel yards, stone plants, and slab plants must stop open-air operations.
In principle, construction sites are prohibited by law from performing earthwork operations (excavation, backfilling, onsite transport, lime mixing, concrete chiseling, etc.).
Prohibit outdoor building demolition, spraying/painting, slope spraying, onsite mixing of concrete and mortar, road facility anti-corrosion, and road asphalt paving.
Transport vehicles for coal, residue, sand, and gravel that are not equipped with airtight devices and are prone to spillage are prohibited by law from being on the road.
4. Road Cleaning:
Increase the frequency of wet sweeping and sprinkling on main roads and dust-prone sections.
5. Grid Management for Straw Burning:
Form inspection teams at the township/village level for 24-hour uninterrupted patrols to resolutely put an end to the open-air burning of straw and garbage.
6. Firework Ban:
The discharge of fireworks and firecrackers is prohibited at all times within the city's administrative area.
II. Diligently Perform Supervision and Inspection
After initiating the Level II response, local governments and member units must strengthen supervision, strictly enforce regulations, and ensure measures are in place. During the response, Grade A and "Leading" enterprises may independently take emission reduction measures (provided pollution control facilities run normally and emissions meet standards) to resolutely prevent a "one-size-fits-all" approach.
III. Timely Reporting of Information
Reports on daily supervision must be submitted by 20:00 during the alert period. A written report on the implementation of measures must be submitted to the Municipal Eco-Environmental Office by 16:00 the day after the alert is lifted.
Contact: 3053449
Email: stjdqc@20210126.com
Baoding Municipal Eco-Environmental Protection Committee Office
Fertilizer Market outlook
last week, the global fertilizer market was shaped by evolving supply and demand dynamics across key regions. Significant factors included the US lifting sanctions on Belarus, gas shortages in Iran, India's ongoing tender, and various logistical disruptions, all influencing price trends and trade flows.
Key Price Movements & Market Overview
Potash:
Prices saw upward momentum in several origins, The market's main focus was the US revocation of Belarus sanctions, though the immediate price reaction was muted. Anticipated demand from the US and Europe, coupled with low port inventories in China, is expected to support prices.
MOP Standard bulk Jordan, fob, $316-398/tonne (+$3.5↑)
MOP Standard bulk, chilie, fob, $323-399/tonne (+4$↑)
Granular MOP, Jordan, fob increased to $336-410/tonne (+3.5$↑)
Granular MOP, fob, Chile $343-411/tonne (+4$↑)
Sulfur:
Prices were firm to stronger in major exporting hubs. The market is being driven by sustained supply disruptions from Russia and Kazakhstan, alongside reduced production in the Middle East. However, demand destruction due to high prices remains a serious risk.
Middle East, FOB, $515-520/tonne (+$105)
US Gulf, FOB, $500-510/tonne (+$2.55).
Black Sea, FOB $420-440/tonne (↔)
Iran, FOB, $400-450/tonne (↔)
India, CFR, (lump) $480-500/tonne (↔)
CFR China, CFR $320-510/tonne (↔)
Urea:
The market was bullish, influenced by India's tender and supply constraints. The primary market drivers are strong demand from Brazil and Australia, paired with significant production cuts in Iran due to gas shortages.
FOB China prilled urea $385-395/tonne (+2.5$↑)
FOB Middle East granular urea $357-400/tonne (+11.5$↑)
FOB Iran granular urea saw a sharp jump to $370-375/tonne (+3$↑)
CFR India $418-420/tonne (↔)
FOB China ammonium sulphate $166-173/tonne (+2.5$↑)
Conclusion and Outlook
The overall market sentiment is cautiously bullish. For potash, prices are expected to follow a stable to slightly increasing trend, supported by seasonal demand. The sulfur market remains tight on supply, suggesting continued price strength, though high levels threaten demand. The urea market is likely to see further price increases in the near term, primarily fueled by India's import activity and global supply tightness, potentially tempered by subdued demand in Europe.
Market participants should monitor geopolitical developments, European environmental regulations, and global inventory levels closely.
How Much Is Too Much Before Everything Goes Wrong?
Updated: 7 hours ago
If you work with NPK fertilizers units (not initially designed for Urea-NPKs) long enough, you will eventually hear this sentence:
“Let’s add a bit more urea, it’s cheap and rich in nitrogen.”
And if you’ve worked long enough, you’ll hear the follow-up a few hours later:
“Why is the product caking, the dryer overloaded, the screens plugging and the crushers crying?”
So… how much urea can you really use in NPK fertilizers before your plant starts protesting?
Let’s talk about it — with science, experience, and a little humor.
Rather than a classic technical paper, I’ll explore this topic as a dialogue between an engineer and an operator.
Close-up view of granular NPK fertilizer with visible urea particles
Why We Love Urea (and Why Urea Loves Trouble)
Urea is the superstar of nitrogen:
46% N
Widely available
Cost-effective
Easy to dissolve
On paper, it looks like the perfect N source.
In reality?
Urea is also:
Highly hygroscopic
A CRH killer
A silent enemy of granulation, drying, and storage
And the problems don’t announce themselves politely. They sneak in through moisture.
Scene Description : A control room at a fertilizer granulation plant. It’s shift change time. An experienced plant Operator and a young Process Engineer are chatting over coffee, discussing a recent idea to cut costs by increasing urea usage in their NPKs.
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Engineer: (Flipping through a report) So, management is suggesting we use more urea in our NPK formulation. Can’t blame them, urea is cheap and loaded with nitrogen. At 46% N, it’s the most concentrated solid nitrogen source. By using urea, we could even formulate high-analysis grades like 19-19-19, which isn’t possible with ammonium nitrate (AN) or ammonium sulfate (they top out around 17-17-17 and 14-14-14 respectively). Plus, urea is safe to handle – no explosion risks like AN.
Operator: Oh, I know. Urea’s definitely a favorite for straight nitrogen fertilizer. Every farmer around the world uses it because it’s concentrated and affordable. But I remember from experience (and a few hard lessons) that urea in compound NPK fertilizers is a different story. There’s a reason we usually cap how much urea we put in our NPKs. Urea may be a great nitrogen carrier, but it’s also a moisture magnet. Too much of it and our nice dry granules can turn into clumps in storage.
Engineer: Right. Urea-based NPK granules are quite hygroscopic – they suck water out of the air more readily than other fertilizers. In fact, when we do use urea in an NPK, we have to take special care because those granules will grab humidity and start caking if you’re not careful. It's nowhere near as popular in NPKs as in straight nitrogen applications for exactly that reason. The products can end up with inferior storage properties compared to urea-free NPKs. So, the idea of “just add more urea” isn’t as straightforward as it sounds.
Operator: I’ve seen that first-hand. A few years back, we tried a new NPK formula with extra urea. The granules looked fine at first, but after a couple of weeks in the warehouse… well, let’s just say we produced NPKs bricks. 😅 We practically needed a jackhammer to break up the caked fertilizer! The hygroscopic nature of urea bit us hard.
Engineer: I believe it. Urea’s appeal (cheap and N-rich) is always weighed against those handling and storage headaches. And that’s exactly what we need to chat about – how much urea can we use before these problems outweigh the benefits?
Operator: Let’s dig into that “hygroscopicity” thing a bit. We throw that word around a lot. Essentially, it means how readily a material absorbs moisture from the air, right?
Engineer: Exactly. Every salt or fertilizer material has a threshold called Critical Relative Humidity (CRH) – the ambient humidity above which the material will start absorbing water from the air. If the surrounding air goes above that critical humidity, the salt will suck in moisture and eventually dissolve into a solution.
Operator: So for urea, what’s the CRH? I recall it’s not very high.
Engineer: Urea’s CRH at 30 °C is around 72–73% relative humidity. That’s the point where urea will begin to absorb water. By comparison, many other common fertilizer ingredients have higher CRH values (meaning they’re less prone to pick up water). For example, diammonium phosphate (DAP) has a CRH about 82–83% and good old potassium chloride (muriate of potash, KCl) is around 84%. Ammonium sulfate is ~79%. And on the other extreme, something like potassium sulfate (SOP) doesn’t absorb moisture until ~96% RH. Urea has one of the lower CRH values among fertilizer materials.
Operator: And it gets worse when we mix stuff together, doesn’t it?
Engineer: Unfortunately, yes. Fertilizer mixtures often have a lower CRH than any of their individual components. It's a phenomenon where the presence of multiple salts can cause each other to dissolve at lower humidities than they would alone. So when we introduce urea into an NPK mix, the critical humidity of the whole fertilizer can decrease.
Operator: Which means even at moderate humidity, a urea-containing NPK could start sucking in water while a urea-free one would stay dry.
Engineer: Exactly. Even a relatively small amount of urea in the formula can have a dramatic effect. I saw data where just a few percent of urea in an NPK significantly lowered the overall CRH of the product. Basically, even a pinch of urea can tip an otherwise stable mix into the danger zone in terms of moisture uptake. One example: if you mix urea with potassium chloride in roughly equal parts, the mixture’s CRH is only about 60% RH (at 30 °C), whereas pure KCl by itself was fine up to ~84%. That’s a huge drop! It shows how urea can drag the whole blend down with it, moisture-wise.
Operator: No wonder we saw caking with that NPK formula. We only added maybe 5% urea in that mix, but it was enough to cause trouble. The critical humidity of the batch must have fallen below the ambient humidity in our warehouse, so the product just started absorbing moisture, turning sticky. Once those granules get damp, they begin to fuse together – hello caking, goodbye flowability.
Engineer: And if you go really high with urea, it’s game over unless you have perfect climate control. Think about this: mixing urea with ammonium nitrate, another hygroscopic beast, is practically a worst-case scenario. I saw a chart showing a 50/50 urea-AN mixture had a CRH of only ~18%. I mean, 18% RH is desert-dry air. Anything above that and your mix turns into liquid. No surprise that no one in their right mind granulates urea together with ammonium nitrate in a solid fertilizer. That combo is only used in liquid fertilizers like UAN solution, for exactly that reason.
Operator: Wow, 18%. That’s insanely low. So yeah, the general rule is: any amount of urea lowers the humidity tolerance of your product, and the more you add, the more you invite moisture to crash the party. Our job as engineers and operators is to figure out how much of that risk we can tolerate, or how to mitigate it if we do use urea.
Engineer: So, what is the tipping point? How much urea can we sneak into an NPK before everything goes south? From what I’ve read and what we’ve experienced, the threshold can be surprisingly low – even on the order of only 2–5% urea in some formulations before issues show up.
Operator: Just a few percent… that’s nothing!
Engineer: So in practice, many plants try to keep urea content low, or if they need a high-urea NPK grade, they’ll take extra measures (like added drying capacity, anti-caking coatings, etc.). Some processes (like those developed by plant designers specifically for urea based NPKs) can accommodate larger urea amounts.
Operator: The bottom line is: a little urea goes a long way – sometimes in the wrong direction! If we push past that small percentage, we better be prepared for what comes next.
Operator: Let’s move from storage issues to the production issues. I mean, it’s not just the warehouse we worry about – it’s also the process itself. I’ve noticed even during manufacturing, too much urea can cause headaches. Remember how the dryer behaved when we tried that urea-rich grade?
Engineer: Oh yeah. The drying step became a bottleneck. It was harder to evaporate water out of them . And if the air in the dryer wasn’t sufficiently dry, the product could even start reabsorbing moisture before we finished drying – talk about one step forward, two steps back. We had to lower the throughput to get the product moisture down to an acceptable level. Even then, any slight lapse and we’d have wet, sticky granules coming out.
Operator: I recall that. We ended up running the dryer at a slower feed rate. And the cooler? We had to ensure the cooling air was dehumidified as well, otherwise those hot urea-containing granules would just pull moisture right back in during cooling. It really affected our production capacity – we couldn’t make as many tons per hour as usual because we had to give the granules extra gentle drying.
Engineer: And if we didn’t do that, we paid for it. I remember the granulator drum and the discharge chutes started plugging and crusting up. At one point the screens in the sizing section were clogged with semi-molten fertilizer. Urea has this trait: it can make the melt phase in the granulator sticky, almost like a plastic goo if there’s too much of it. The product was softer when hot – the granules hadn’t fully solidified, so they’d deform or break easily. We had lumps, we had dust, we had breakdowns… you name it.
Operator: I was on that shift – it was not fun! We spent half the time unclogging the screens and clearing the solidified deposits from the cooler. Urea basically made the product softer and more plastic during manufacture. Normal NPKs tumble nicely, urea-rich NPKs can even fuse to the walls of the equipment if you’re not careful. It’s like the process itself starts to cake before the product is even out of the plant.
Engineer: We basically learned that if you want to introduce urea into an NPK process, you have to redesign the process or accept lower output. Drying and cooling become way more critical and challenging. And you might need to use techniques like conditioning the granules, or using special technology to handle larger urea quantities. It’s doable with the right know-how, but if you just toss urea in without adjustments, you’ll end up with exactly what we saw – blockages, downtime, and a product that wouldn’t pass quality control.
Operator: I think that sums it up: urea can really put the hurt on our granulation and drying if we overdo it. The process wasn’t originally designed for high-urea throughput, so pushing that limit exposes all the weak points. We can adapt, but it requires investment (better air handling, perhaps larger dryer or cooler, anti-caking agents, etc.). Those costs might eat away the savings from using cheap urea.
Engineer: So where do we stand after all this? Urea is indeed a double-edged sword for NPK production. On one edge, it’s shiny and attractive, cheap, high nutrient content, safe to handle, widely available. On the other edge, it cuts into our process and product quality causing moisture issues, caking, and process slow-downs if not handled carefully.
Operator: It really comes down to balance. If we use only a little urea, we might get away with it – enjoy some cost savings without too much trouble. But even then, we need to watch out for things like using KCl in the same formula or high humidity environments, which can trigger problems even at low urea levels. And if we use a lot of urea, we need to engineer around the problems: invest in better drying, maybe use additives or alternative raw materials (like SOP instead of MOP), perhaps even accept a lower throughput.
Engineer: Well said. The conversation we just had – I think it’s exactly what management needs to hear. Use urea, but know its limits. For our next formulation meeting, we’ll bring this up: maybe propose a small trial increment in urea content, along with measures to counteract the downsides. And we’ll definitely cite the data – like, “hey, even 2-5% extra urea can cause issues, and here’s why” – so they understand it’s not just us being overly cautious.
Operator: Agreed. We’ll emphasize that we’re not against using urea – we just want to use it smartly. After all, we process engineers and operators love a good efficiency improvement, but not at the cost of turning the plant into a sticky mess. Sometimes the cheapest raw material can create the costliest problems if handled wrong.
Engineer: And on that note, let’s get back to ensuring today’s batch (with modest urea content) comes out perfect. No alarm bells, no caked hoppers – just smooth operation. Urea will have its place, but we’ll respect what it can do – for better or worse.
Operator: Sounds like a plan. Here’s to keeping our fertilizer flowing and our blood pressure low! (Raises his coffee mug)
Engineer: (Clinks mugs) Cheers to that – and to finding the sweet spot with urea in our NPKs.
Both: Now back to work, with a deeper understanding for that seemingly humble fertilizer ingredient, urea
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Tampa ammonia contract price was settled yesterday for January at $585/tonne CFR. The price represents a $65 decrease from the December settlement, which was agreed upon at a rollover of $650/tonne CFR for this month’s loadings.
The drop had been widely anticipated, as the recent supply tightness is expected to continue easing.
As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 9.39% from the previous month.
[Notification] Notification of receipt of shipments of ammonium diphosphate
China Association for the Distribution of Agricultural Resources
December 23, 2025 10: 34
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Relevant units:On the commission of the relevant departments of the State, the China Association for the Distribution of Agricultural Products (hereinafter referred to as "the Association") will conduct statistics on the shipments and receipts of ammonium phosphate products to the northeast region. In order to provide comprehensive and accurate statistics on the situation, all relevant units are requested to complete the relevant information as required. Specific notices are as follows:I. Scope of submissionFrom September 1, 2025 to April 15, 2026, phosphate production enterprises undertaking minimum production plan tasks shipped to the northeast region, and ammonium diphosphate received by the national commercial fertilizer reserve task holders in the northeast.II. Contents of the submission(1) Status of shipment. Completed by the production enterprise, it mainly includes the date of shipment, the recipient (s) of sale (receipt), the category of goods, quantity, price and necessary contract information.(ii) Status of reception. Completed by the depository enterprise, it mainly includes the date of receipt, the supplier (shipping) party, the type of goods, quantity, price, and the necessary contractual information and receipt certificates.III. Form of submission1. Reporting platform: The national online platform for the maintenance of agricultural commodities. Organizations that have not yet registered on the website must complete registration and wait for approval before they can complete the data submission.2. The submission process will begin in the coming days and will be announced at a later date.IV. OthersThe information submitted will be limited to internal statistical use and reported to the relevant national authorities. Please ensure that the information submitted is true and accurate.If you have questions about platform use or need support from the Association, please contact the Association secretariat in a timely manner
Morning. On Int'l paper, Feb AG & Brazil traded flat to each other again y'day ($406) before Feb Brazil edged slightly higher. In Nola, Urea barge values continued to see gains with Feb trading $393 Feb & March $396. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $405//$410
Feb $405//$408 – traded $406
Mar $395//$410
Cfr Brazil
Jan $405//$415
Feb $405//$408 – traded $406, $408
Mar $395//$415
Egypt
Jan $425//$460
Feb $420//$450
Nola
Phys: Feb traded $393, Mar $396
Paper:
Jan $388//$395
Feb $392/$397
Mar $393//$400
Apr $385//$395
May $375//$385
Jun $360//$375
Brazil Amsul
Jan $178//$190
Feb $175//$188
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $620//$635
Mar $620//$635
Q1 $625//$635
MAP Brazil
Jan $635//$660
Feb $645//$675
Mar $655//$680
Jul $670//$700
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Sulphur update 21.12.2025
NEW SALES Sulphur Granular
– FOB Middle East – 515-525 $
Arrivals for early next month
– CFR India 540 $
– CFR Indonesia 540 $
– CFR Brazil 540 – 550 $
MARKET DRIVERS:
Supply constraints from the FSU and the Middle East limit availability.
Middle East 3 major sulphur producers have production constraints limiting December output.
📈 Market Analysis: The Resilience Paradox
Despite widespread demand destruction, price direction is holding firm. Typically, a drop in demand signals a price softening; however, we are currently seeing a "supply-side floor" that is keeping valuations elevated.
📊 The Profitability Squeeze: The current price levels have created a bifurcated market where only a specific "inner circle" of buyers can maintain healthy margins:
🟢 Lowest-Cost Fertilizer Producers: Vertical integration and scale allow these players to absorb high input costs.
🟢 Metals & Mining: High-value metals (like Nickel and Cobalt for EVs) continue to drive demand where sulphur is a non-negotiable processing agent.
🟢 The Marginal Gap: For the rest of the market, downstream products have become largely "unworkable." While some players are sustaining temporary losses to maintain market share, this is not a long-term strategy.
📌 Outlook: Correction vs. The "New Normal"
We are approaching a critical inflection point. As demand destruction reaches a ceiling, a price correction is inevitable. However, stakeholders should not expect a return to historical lows.
📌 Key Takeaway:
A "new higher floor price" is expected to be established. This is driven by a structural shift where long-term demand is projected to outpace supply—particularly as decarbonization reduces sulphur recovery from traditional oil and gas refining.
LONDON (ICIS)– In China, urea exports continued to increase in November, reaching 601,810 tonnes compared with just 2,220 tonnes in November 2024, according to customs data.
In October and September, exports were at 1.2 million tonnes and 1.4 million tonnes respectively.
Vietnam was the main destination in November, followed by India and Chile.
Morning. Thin activity on paper to start the week, but tone seemingly still supportive after higher phys sales reported in Egypt (+$5/t at $450), while a Jan Nola barge traded $388 (+$3 from Fri).
AG
Jan $405//$412
Feb $403//$412
Mar $395//$410
Cfr Brazil
Jan $405//$417
Feb $403//$412
Mar $395//$415
Egypt
Jan $425//$460
Feb $418//$450
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $388
Paper:
Jan $388//$395
Feb $390/$395
Mar $390//$397
Apr $380//$395
May $370//$380
Jun $360//$370
Brazil Amsul
Dec $182/$190
Jan $178//$190
Feb $175//$188
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $620//$635
Mar $620//$635
Q1 $625//$635
MAP Brazil
Jan $635//$660
Feb $645//$675
Mar $655//$680
Jul $670//$700
The global urea market moved higher this week, driven by supply-side constraints, policy impacts, and strong downstream demand. Price ranges widened across key origins as buyers and sellers adjusted positions ahead of India’s latest tender.
🇷🇺 Black Sea
Granular urea prices traded in a broad range of $380–405/t FOB. Early in the week, a 5,000t Turkmen cargo changed hands at $380/t FOB for early January loading, ahead of India’s tender. Buying interest had been anchored in the high $370s/t FOB, partly reflecting concerns around CBAM, with Turkmen product facing an estimated €60/t charge into the EU from 1 January. Subsequent deals into Romania were concluded between $390/t FOB and the mid-to-high $390s/t FOB.
Meanwhile, Azeri granular urea from Socar reportedly traded at around $405/t FOB Batumi, possibly higher, with the full 30,000t tender volume sold for late December to early January loading.
🇸🇦 Middle East
Spot granular urea prices widened to $380–400/t FOB. A cargo was sold at $380/t FOB Oman for January loading before the Indian tender, while later business was concluded near $395/t FOB as international sentiment firmed.
Producers are now targeting above $400/t FOB, supported by tightening supply and gas-related disruptions in Iran.
🇮🇷 Iran
Granular urea prices were assessed at $370–375/t FOB for January shipment. Pardis sold 30,000t at $375/t FOB to Turkey, while MIS placed two 30,000t cargoes at $370/t FOB.
Gas supply constraints have intensified, with at least four producers halting operations, removing over 3.3mn t/yr of capacity. Additional plants are reportedly operating at reduced rates, adding further upside risk to supply.
🇮🇳 India
December urea offtake could approach 6mn t, potentially setting a new monthly record. Stocks have declined to around 6.3mn t, while domestic production remains steady near 2.6mn t/month.
Strong consumption has prompted NFL’s earlier-than-expected tender, seeking 1.5mn t for shipment up to 20 February.
🔎 Conclusion
With Indian demand accelerating and supply tightening across key exporters, the global urea market remains firmly supported as 2025 approaches.
China’s government has ordered a reduction in sulphuric acid exports, directing acid-producing companies to focus on the nation’s domestic requirements – and threatening administrative measures for excessive exports.
Export acid volumes curbed after 20 November
Domestic acid list pricing as of 11 December set as benchmark and ceiling
Phosphate fertilizer producers and smelters to sign long-term purchase and sales agreements
On 18 December, under the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the China Sulphuric Acid Industry Association (CSAIA) and the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association (CPFIA) gathered for a special meeting.
During the gathering, Beijing’s representatives revealed the intention to direct the domestic sulphuric acid market by administrative means, with the aim of prioritizing domestic supply and curbing price hikes to support the core national task of ensuring fertilizer supply and stabilizing prices.
Beijing will directly influence the Chinese sulphuric acid market, including export and supply control, policy control, supply-marketing relationship co-ordination and process and policy support.
FOCUS ON DOMESTIC DEMAND
Under Beijing’s direction, sulphuric acid exports are to decline in volume as of 20 November.
The government has also ordered suppliers to prioritize domestic phosphate fertilizer producers.
Domestic sulphuric acid list prices as of 11 December are to be used as the benchmark and the ceiling for producers’ offers. Higher offers are no longer permitted.
Chinese domestic sulphuric acid prices (CNY/tonne)
Article content
However, this ruling currently only applies to smelter acid; leaving sulphur-burned and ore-based acid producers unaffected – for now.
That said, during the meeting Beijing’s representatives did state that domestically-produced burner feedstock sulphur should be priced reasonably to be acceptable to both upstream and downstream parties.
Prices should not fluctuate sharply in line with international trends, and reasonable profit margins should be maintained, the government representatives said – without adding if any administrative control will be instated for the feedstock.
The new policies are a direct response to wild swings in both domestic and international sulphuric acid markets following the National Day holiday (1-8 October).
PRICE HIKES CATCH BEIJING'S ATTENTION
Domestic sulphuric acid list prices kept rising sharply after the holiday, supported by surging demand in the international acid market and expectations of increasing buying enquiries for export cargoes – which were later proven true.
Export orders did indeed surge, and producers’ domestic inventories remained low. This destocking tightened supply, which in turn pushed up domestic prices in a vicious cycle.
During the meeting, Beijing’s representatives also ordered CSAIA to co-ordinate with phosphate fertilizer producers and upstream smelting enterprises and ensure stable implementation of long-term purchase and sales agreements.
As a key consumer of sulphuric acid, Chinese phosphate fertilizer producers’ costs increased as domestic acid list pricing pushed up.
Some producers had to raise or suspend offers – even in the winter off-season, when pricing is typically weakening – which created a cycle of elevated costs, downstream resistance and production cuts.
The government adds that this severely constrained phosphate fertilizer supplies, and directly endangered availability for the imminent spring planting season.
Policy caps on smelter acid prices will redirect resources and refocus the market from price competition to the fulfilment of supply contracts, which may directly ease cost pressure on phosphate fertilizer producers.
As an additional buffer against price hikes, the NDRC representatives revealed plans to advance investment in phosphogypsum as a source of sulphuric acid.
Phosphogypsum is a by-product of phosphate fertilizers and can be used to produce sulphuric acid; with leading companies having already installed relevant facilities – but the investment is considerable.
The NDRC said it will push the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other relevant departments to research policy support, such as loan interest subsidies to address the prohibitive cost.
POTENTIAL LONG-TERM IMPACT ON GLOBAL MARKET
Overall, by mandating domestic supply priority and co-ordinating long-term supply contracts, the government’s policy aims to forge a resilient, predictable domestic sulphuric acid-to-fertilizer loop to buffer the industry from global market volatility and enhance supply chain resilience.
Meanwhile, policy support for sulphuric acid production from phosphogypsum is of strategic importance to Beijing.
It not only addresses the environmental challenge of phosphogypsum stockpiling, but represents a pathway to overcome the bottleneck constraint on sulphur resources from the source; thereby enhancing industrial self-sufficiency and sustainability.
The impact of Beijing’s intervention in China’s sulphuric acid industry will take some time to reflect on the international market.
China has been one of the three largest acid-exporting nations for many years – and was set to be the same in 2026.
However, with Beijing and the NDRC’s intervention there may be a notable impact on acid export availability from Q1 2026 onwards.
Top 10 acid exporting nations, January-August 2023-2025
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As of last week export offers for spot acid cargoes were heard at $150-160/tonne FOB (free on board), although traders discounted any such price point as completely unworkable.
Indeed, several traders questioned coastal acid producers’ bullish stance on offer pricing, given that a ban on phosphate fertilizer exports and the NDRC’s intervention could see both feedstock sulphur and sulphuric acid list pricing decline in Q1.
Long-term, should Chinese acid become less readily available in the global market, there is a possibility of firmer offers ex-Europe, -South Korea, and -Japan as traders look to alternative sources to meet spot demand.