Domestic production – facts & figures
NPK (Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), and Potassium (K))
Serbia produces roughly 550,000 tons of NPK fertilizers annually.
Approximately 300,000 tons are exported, positioning Serbia as a notable regional supplier.
Domestic NPK production requires about 750,000 tons of sulfuric acid, partly supplied by Zi Jin, with the remainder imported.
Key vulnerabilities include the import of ammonia, phosphorus (whose global price rose by over 300%), and potassium, historically sourced from Russia and Belarus.
Alternative suppliers now include Canada, China, Jordan, Israel, and Kazakhstan.
Nitrogen fertilizers
Serbia’s annual nitrogen fertilizer needs reach 400,000–450,000 tons:
Urea: 200,000–250,000 tons
Ammonium nitrate: 100,000 tons
KAN (Calcium Ammonium Nitrate): 100,000 tons
Despite robust NPK production, Serbia remains a significant importer of fertilizers, particularly nitrogen products.
Almost all nitrogen fertilizers are imported; domestic production is limited to 30,000–50,000 tons of UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate) by Promist. Restarting national ammonia production remains financially unfeasible due to high repair costs, staffing shortages, and gas price constraints.
Category
Details
Total Imports
650,000 tons (€200 million)
Key Imported Products
Urea: 206,000 tons; NPK: 189,000 tons (together 63% of all imports)
Main Import Supplier
Russia (57% of all urea imports; 76% of all NPK imports)
Secondary Suppliers
Austria, Croatia, Romania
Total Exports
488,000 tons (€178 million)
Key Exported Products
NPK (€94 million); NP fertilizers
Main Export Destinations
Ukraine, Romania, Hungary
Trade Position
Serbia is both a major importer of raw materials and a regional exporter of finished fertilizers
Good day – after a long holiday weekend, please see the closing marks from the end of last week.
AG
Jan $405//$410
Feb $404//$408
[Feb traded $406 last week]_
Mar $395//$410
Cfr Brazil
Jan $405//$415
Feb $405//$408
[Feb traded $406, $408 l/w]_
Mar $395//$415
Egypt
Jan $425//$460
Feb $420//$450
Nola
Phys: Feb traded last $393, Mar traded $396
Paper:
Jan $388//$395
Feb $392/$397
Mar $393//$400
Apr $385//$395
May $375//$385
Jun $360//$375
Brazil Amsul
Jan $178//$190
Feb $175//$188
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Jan $615//$630
Feb $620//$635
Mar $620//$635
Q1 $625//$635
MAP Brazil
Jan $635//$660
Feb $645//$675
Mar $655//$680
Jul $670//$700
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $11/mt increase.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Demand surges*
Importers are seeking 19+ tons.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 33.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 6% capacity.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $32/mt increase.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
In China The “urea” market experienced fluctuations this week, starting strong and then weakening. As of Friday of this week, medium-sized granules were mainly produced at 1,650-1,700 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. Initially, there was a localized environmental alert upgrade, leading to a slight decline in the production of compound fertilizers. However, the urea plant’s production was subsequently affected, and individual enterprises experienced short-term outages. Daily production temporarily dropped to around 190,000 tons. A few enterprises faced tight sales pressures. During this period, there were disruptions caused by “export-related short essays,” which led to a significant rise in futures prices. Market sentiment fluctuated, somewhat stimulating downstream purchasing. Additionally, urea plant inventories decreased this week, and orders continued to accumulate, resulting in relatively firm pricing intentions. Towards the end of the week, as spot prices rose and futures markets cooled, market transactions significantly decreased, and the upward trend came to an end… Next week, approaching the end of the month, some factories still expect to receive orders. However, based on the current number of days left for factories to dispatch their products, there may be limited room for price reductions to attract orders. It is anticipated that the domestic urea market will remain stagnant with minor fluctuations in the coming cycle.
Looking ahead to next week:
From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is expected to fluctuate around 192,000 to 200,000 tons next week. As some facilities resume operations, daily production is gradually increasing.
In terms of demand, the industrial sector has experienced localized environmental impacts, resulting in a slight decline in the production of compound fertilizers. Short-term stockpiling has been the primary strategy. The production of sheet materials has gradually decreased steadily, weakening support for urea.
Although the agricultural sector is experiencing a period of low demand, there may have been a slight increase in local agricultural stockpiles in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. The demand for commercial stockpiles may have slowed due to price constraints.
Regarding exports, there have been no new export quotas issued. The initial phase of exports has come to an end, and the volume of exports has been limited.
Overall, as we approach the end of the month, production at Nissan has picked up, while demand for industrial essentials has decreased. Additionally, there is an expectation that urea plants will be closed for the New Year’s holiday, which could lead to a weakening trend in urea prices next week after a period of stagnation. <This message was edited>