LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, MOPCO sold 3 x 5,000 tonnes of granular urea at $450/tonne FOB to three different traders for January loading.
Morning. Nola Urea values continued to run up on Fri, with Jan paper trading into low-$390s, and March at $400. Int'l paper saw Jan Brazil trade last done ($408cfr), while Feb AG & Brazil traded $405. Mkts framed:
AG
Jan $407//$412
_[Jan traded $405-$408 last week]_
Feb $400//$410 – traded $405 Fri
_[Feb traded $400-$408 l/w]_
Mar $395//$410
Cfr Brazil
Jan $405//$412 – traded $408 Fri
_[Jan traded $405-$408 l/w]_
Feb $395//$412 – traded $405 Fri
Mar $395//$415
Egypt
Jan $420//$455
Feb $418//$450
Brazil Amsul
Dec $182/$190
Jan $178//$190
Feb $175//$188
Nola
Phys: Jan traded $385;
Paper:
Dec $358//$363
Jan $388//$395 – traded $385, $388, $392 Fri
Feb $390/$395
Mar $390//$397 – traded $395, $400 Fri
(Q1 traded $398 Fri)
Apr $380//$395
May $370//$380
Jun $360//$370
MAR $400 CALL traded $10
Brazil Amsul
Dec $182/$190
Jan $178//$190
Feb $175//$188
UAN Nola
Jan $285//$310
Feb $280//$315
DAP Nola
Dec $625//645
Jan $615//$630
Feb $620//$635
Mar $620//$635
Q1 $625//$635
MAP Brazil
Jan $635//$660
Feb $645//$675
Mar $655//$680
Jul $670//$700
here is the MACF or CBAM calculation for urea from Egypt from January 1st CBAM cost = ((Real emissions) – (CBAM Benchmark × CBAM Factor)) × CO₂ price
Actual emissions (t CO₂/t produced): measured or default values.
CBAM benchmark (t CO₂/t produced): reference set for each fertilizer.
CBAM Factor (%): Proportion of free allowances remaining (declining from 97.5% to 39%)
CO₂ price: ETS average price, available on the EEX website
Example: Egypt urea
Default emissions + 1% markup: 1.404 t CO₂e / t
Benchmark (ammonia): 0.902 t CO₂e / t
2026 reduction factor: 97.5%
Price of the certificates: 86 € / t CO₂e
Total CBAM: €45.11/t, the average urea ex-Port France was €423/t between September 24 and September 25, so the increase will be 10.6%. Urea is the main product, the increase will be > to 7% and payable at customs clearance.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 24.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 33% capacity.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 40% capacity.
*Supply tight*
Limited spot availability reported.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 33.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Weather impact*
Rain delays in key regions.