Today is day 775 of the Red Sea crisis. No new developments in relation to shipping. It should, however, be noted that the ceasefire remains fragile with renewed Israeli attacks happening again here on January 1st. The attacks are certainly not the first since the ceasefire was agreed back in October.
According to Israel these are in response to Hamas attacks. According to Hamas these are unprovoked attacks. Irrespective of who you choose to believe this shows how fragile the ceasefire is. Additionally, Israel has now revoked the licences for 37 aid agencies to operate in Gaza. The lack of delivery of aid was one of the Houthies' stated points during their self-proclaimed embargo on commercial shipping in the southern Red Sea in the past 2 years.
These developments illustrate the fragility of the ceasefire, and that it is not at this point a certainty that peace will prevail – again showing that an imminent return for container shipping to the Red Sea routing is also not at this point an certainty.
Also, please note, that despite much talk about a reversal lately, it is mainly smaller container vessels which are transiting the southern Red Sea. The image below based on vesselfinder data shows where the large container vessels over 8000 TEU are presently versus the smaller vessels with capacity below 8000 TEU.
The US tariff on upholstered furniture was planned to increase from 25% to 30% from January 1st 2026. Similarly, the tariffs on kitchen cabinets and vanities was planned to increase from 25% to 50% from January 1st 2026. This increase has now been postponed to January 1st 2027. This kicks off 2026 with the same level of rapid tariff changes as we have also experienced in much of 2026
First, this graph of requests for judicial reorganization of rural producers and agribusiness companies has been widely repercussioned. There is nothing new for anyone.
Now, the interesting point is the discussion that this brings us.
Throughout this year, I had the opportunity to visit several places and, if I were to list one word that echoed the most, I would say it was: credit.
In practically all the events and discussions in which I participated, the restriction of credit and the complications related to its granting were a very relevant highlight.
This directly impacted the rural producers' purchase program.
I had several reports of situations in which the purchase order for inputs was made, but returned due to credit restrictions.
These numbers of requests for judicial reorganization clearly reflect the environment we are experiencing.
It is absolutely impossible for any company to work in the same way as it did in 2021 and 2022 in agribusiness.
The scenario today is completely different. We live in a much more uncertain environment.
For next year, this discussion tends to continue.
In my view, we have not yet reached the crest of the wave.
In fact, last year, I already commented that, despite breaking records quarter after quarter, the crest of the wave had not yet been reached, and I continue to believe that it has not yet arrived.
We will probably still go through some turbulence.
Our role is to follow all this!
RJ = default with the support of the corrupt Brazilian judiciary. The debtor in this country is always right. A shame that certainly makes investments in Brazil unfeasible. The country of legal, accounting and tax uncertainty!
My analysis on NFL: what do you think
In no particular order, all of the factors below have to be considered when predicting potential L1 numbers in to India.
NFL want 1.5 mil mts, they will struggle to secure this volume
Russia has been seeking outlets away from India and recently sent over 200kt to NOLA, is still sending mts to Europe and Turkey
Qatar/AG has sent over 300Kt to NOLA also, limiting the number of cargoes going to be made available to NFL
Traders holding AG formula based contracts could be looking at holding cargoes around USD 380-390 FOB
Dangote sold 6 cargoes to Ethiopia at USD 360 FOB, and has moved price to USD 375 FOB for 1 or 2 cargoes only
Indorama are presently selling in to Brazil at USD 420 CFR and thus want a FOB above USD 405/Mt
Brunei targeting USD 405 (NEED FREIGHT)
AG targeting USD 400+ FOB (as opportunity cost market place is brazil)
Iran is out of gas – which benefits factories wanting to target Brazil/Turkey/South Africa
Brazil is presently paying USD 420 CFR, which implies an AG FOB at USD 390 FOB (OPPORTUNITY COST MARKET PLACE) – Puts L1 as low USD 407.50 CFR
PAPER JAN/FEB MID POINT: USD 407.5/Mt + Actuals = 422.50 CFR
Trader gossip for L1 = USD 415-420 CFR
Overall market is seen as quite tight and shorting is not considered a great idea, however going long is also dangerous as sales liquidity is very thin on the ground. Most will look to do this tender on a B2B bss
So considering all the above factors it is likely that the L1 range is USD 407.50-425 CFR, without shorting aggressively
Looking at volumes from previous tender:
Brunei: 30Kt – available
China: 375Kt – NOT GOING TO BE THERE THIS TIME
Indonesia: 80Kt – I DOUBT THEY HAVE EXPORT POLICY IN PLACE IN TIME
Malaysia: 85Kt – already allocated
Russia: 400Kt – MAJORITY ALREADY ALLOCATED
AG: 550Kt – I DO NOT THINK THESE VOLUMES ARE THERE THIS TIME
Nigeria 60Kt Feb cargoes available
If the price is USD 425 CFR for example, i still can only see Russia, AG, Nigeria, Brunei, Vietnam/China only putting up 800kt, which means all bidders in this tender will be asked to price match the L1. Which means we have 0 impetus to be aggressive.
There are no standout origins or traders looking to short this tender aggressively,
For export, at about 395-405fob for prills and 410-415fob for granulars. Its keep firm and a bit higher based on the limited quotas left. There are only max 2-3 vessels can follow this new India tender. So offers keep higher. Based on the strict control about the sulphur and phosphate to secure the winter stock project and domestic level, new export quota seems will become delayed. Rumors again this week about new quotas will be released after new year holiday but its just rumor again.
Excitement is growing at the BHP Jansen potash mine in Saskatchewan.
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The construction of Jansen Stage 1 nears completion, and the new expansion at the Westshore Terminals facility in Delta, B.C., approaches readiness to receive potash shipments by rail and deliver them to customers around the globe by mid-2027.
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Once fully operational, the two-stage project is expected to produce up to 8.5 million tonnes per year of potash, a vital mineral for fertilizers and global food security.
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“We’re looking ahead to potash playing a central role in BHP and the company’s future as we ensure that Jansen contributes to a stronger economy in Western Canada and across the nation,” says Karina Gistelinck, asset president potash with BHP, the person responsible for the project’s operational readiness.
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Deep underground, the Jansen mine is already cutting potash and delivering it to the surface. The mine has so far sunk two 1,000-metre vertical shafts, each 7.3 metres in diameter, which were joined in February by the first of what will be many horizontal tunnels through which mineral removal occurs.
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“As we prepare for operations in mid-2027, we are developing the underground and already hoisting potash through one of our shafts. In early 2026, we’ll be hoisting the product through the other shaft as well,” Gistelinck says. “At that point, we’ll have two shafts working, enabling two shifts ready to hoist tons of potash and continue to develop the mine.”
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In connecting the two 1,000-metre vertical shafts, the team is a step closer to safely delivering first potash from Jansen.
In connecting the two 1,000-metre vertical shafts, the team is a step closer to safely delivering first potash from Jansen.
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The skyline at the Jansen mine is also changing. Steel has been erected for the 10-storey dry mill, which will remove moisture from the potash, and the five-storey wet mill that purifies the product. A new headframe designed to lift tonnes of potash has also been put in place over the second shaft, replacing the smaller one used to bore into the earth’s crust.
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Almost 1,800 kilometres to the southwest, Westshore Terminals is expanding its ocean-facing infrastructure to support the offloading, storage and shipping of potash. BHP has invested about $1 billion to enable potash handling and export at Westshore Terminals, including construction of a 200,000-tonne potash storage facility.
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“At the same time, we’ve built a 62-kilometre rail connection from the Jansen mine to connect it to the CN and CP rail network,” Gistelinck says. “We’ve been told that this represents the largest investment in new rail capacity in Canada over the past 20 years.”
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The process of hiring employees and readying a local workforce for employment is also in full gear, with more than 150 people already working at the mine site full-time and more to come once operational.
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BHP has invested about $1 billion to enable potash handling and export at Westshore Terminals in Delta, B.C.
BHP has invested about $1 billion to enable potash handling and export at Westshore Terminals in Delta, B.C.
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BHP is also taking steps to support development of local talent, particularly in the trades, and to attract more people into the industry and help them get the needed skillset. This includes establishing the BHP Potash Academy, a partnership between BHP and Carlton Trail College in Humboldt, Sask., that sees students completing eight months of paid training to prepare them for full-time employment with BHP.
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An Integrated Operations Centre (IOC) will oversee the operation of the mine from Saskatoon, 150 kilometres to the west. Located at the BHP Canada Saskatoon River Quarry office, the IOC will operate 24/7 and offer integrated supply chain management, leveraging real-time data to oversee and control all equipment and processes from mine to port. The facility will oversee autonomous loading of rail cars, a global first for a remotely located control centre.
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The economic impact of the project has already been profound. Across Jansen stages 1 and 2 investment will be over $15 billion, creating more than 5,000 construction jobs and generating eventual long-term full-time employment for approximately 900 people. Jansen has also created opportunities for Indigenous-owned businesses with almost $1 billion in contracts awarded to Indigenous-owned businesses since 2021.
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“We’re here to be part of the fabric of the local community over the long haul,” Gistelinck says. “Even before producing any potash, we’ve already committed more than $50 million in social investment in Saskatchewan in health care, childcare, education, social services and recreation and there’s more to come.”
Reflecting on the 140 years since BHP’s inception in Australia as a company focused on mining silver and lead, Gistelinck says she’s not only proud of BHP’s history, but also of its ability to reinvent itself.
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“Today, we’re providing the commodities needed to build the future — and are looking forward to very soon starting production of potash to help feed the world. We are also proud that we are doing this in a way that is helping to advance Canada’s trade diversity and supply chains,” she says. “Everything we do, we want to do through partnerships that create value for everyone over the long term. Potash is going to play an important role in BHP for the next 140 years — and probably much longer.”
PS notes for India
Nola : 300kt Qatari
200kt Russian
Irans out gas
Dangote sold 6 cargos at 360 for Ethiopia before moving to 375
Struggle to get 1.5 mil
AG 400+ fob wanted
L1 – 417-420
Need Mts but won’t get it bid 437+
Check paper values Jan/feb
Market rangebound, shorting is dangerous
Brunei targeting 405 fob
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Exciting news from India's energy sector!
GAIL (India) Limited has signed an MoU with the Chhattisgarh Government to explore a greenfield gas-based urea fertilizer plant. This strategic move aims to boost domestic urea production with a capacity of 1.27 million metric tonnes per year.
Plant to be located along the Mumbai-Nagpur-Jharsuguda pipeline corridor for reliable natural gas supply.
GAIL will conduct detailed techno-economic feasibility studies before final investment decision.
Expected to reduce import dependency, enhance agricultural self-sufficiency, and drive industrial growth in Chhattisgarh.
The state govt pledges full support for land allocation, regulatory approvals, and infrastructure development. This aligns with India's push for energy security and sustainable farming.
What are your thoughts on how such projects can transform regional economies?
LDG trading in market for 40kt gran urea in bulk to Mexico target price usd 410 cfr, FH Jan shipment
Nitrogen & Phosphorus Consultation: Firmly Implementing the Responsibility of Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices of Phosphate Fertilizer
December 31, 2025 (Wednesday)
Firmly Implement the Responsibility of Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices of Phosphate Fertilizer
According to news from the China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Network, raw material prices for phosphate fertilizer (specifically sulfur) have recently been running at high levels. This is unfavorable for fertilizer storage and preparation during the winter and spring farming seasons.
At this critical moment, relevant Central Enterprises (state-owned enterprises) have coordinated their self-produced sulfur resources. Companies like PetroChina and Sinopec are providing low-priced sulfur raw materials to nine phosphate fertilizer production enterprises.
> Note: It is reported that the price of the sulfur supplied is approximately 1/2 of the peak market price. These nine phosphate enterprises will, in turn, release low-priced phosphate fertilizer to the public to suppress market price hikes.
>
The relevant supply-guarantee units hereby solemnly promise: We will firmly implement the responsibility of ensuring supply and stabilizing the price of phosphate fertilizer! <This message was edited>
[Urea] On December 30, the urea industry produced 194,500 tons per day, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous working day; this represents an increase of 15,600 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 80.43%, up by 0.50% from 79.93% last year.
Recently, there have been rumors in the market regarding the distribution of the fifth batch of quotas by Wang Qun of Zhongnong Tianjin. I would like to clarify the matter as follows:
Firstly, I have never spoken to anyone about the fifth batch of exports. Whether quotas will be issued and when they will be issued are matters that are determined by the relevant state authorities. It is not something we can speculate about. Certain individuals may be engaging in malicious market manipulation for ulterior motives. Zhongnong Tianjin Company resolutely opposes such behavior. We do not rule out the possibility of holding those spreading false information accountable for their legal responsibilities.
II. As we prepare for spring farming and fertilizer distribution, Zhongnong Tianjin and myself are actively implementing the national policies to stabilize prices and ensure supply. We are actively engaging in state-owned storage, preparing for the distribution of various types of fertilizers, and making a positive contribution to ensuring adequate fertilizer for spring farming.
III. We earnestly request all colleagues not to spread rumors or rumors, and to actively provide information about instances of airport pick-up and promotion activities, so that it can be reported to the relevant state authorities.
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Firmly Implementing Responsibility for Stabilizing Phosphorus Fertilizer Supply and Prices; Actively Fulfilling the Mission of the Fertilizer Industry
Joint Commitment by 9 Phosphorus Fertilizer Production Enterprises
China Agricultural Means of Production Association (CAMPA)
Phosphorus fertilizer is a major category of chemical fertilizer and is often called the "food for grain." Its supply and price stability directly affect farmers' motivation to plant crops and impact national food security. Recently, the price of sulfur—a raw material for phosphorus fertilizer—has remained high, which is unfavorable for winter storage and spring plowing preparations. At this critical juncture, relevant central enterprises have coordinated their self-produced sulfur resources to sell them at fair prices to key phosphorus fertilizer producers. This has effectively reduced production costs and solidified the foundation for stabilizing supply and prices.
We hereby solemnly commit to: Firmly implementing the responsibility of ensuring phosphorus fertilizer supply and price stability, actively fulfilling the industry’s mission, and forming a linked transmission with central enterprises to truly benefit the entire industry and the broad masses of farmers!
1. Stabilizing Production
We will advance all aspects of production and operations in a coordinated manner, strengthen production scheduling, and resolutely fulfill minimum production targets to ensure sufficient market supply.
2. Active Sales
Based on the principle of "selling whenever available," we will quickly release the produced phosphorus fertilizer into the market in full volume. We resolutely promise not to engage in hoarding, withholding sales, restricting sales, or tie-in sales. We will provide timely and comprehensive sales data to relevant authorities.
3. Stabilizing Prices
From now until the end of next year's spring plowing, we will maintain stable selling prices for phosphorus fertilizer. We will resolutely avoid disrupting market order through price gouging, collusive price hikes, or disguised price increases.
4. Ensuring Reserves
We will strengthen business cooperation with relevant reserve enterprises. Produced phosphorus fertilizer will be prioritized for storage needs, supporting reserve enterprises in building inventory at lower costs to meet the concentrated demand during next year's spring plowing.
5. Emergency Services
In the event of localized supply shortages or price instability, we will immediately mobilize our corporate resources for targeted supply to ensure that the industry-wide arrangements for supply and price stability are fully implemented.
The work of ensuring phosphorus fertilizer supply and price stability carries heavy responsibility and a glorious mission. We will firmly fulfill our primary responsibility to protect farmers' motivation and contribute to national food security.
Participating Enterprises (In no particular order):
Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co., Ltd.
Deyang Haohua Qingping Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd.
Guizhou Phosphating (Group) Co., Ltd.
Hubei Yihua Group Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Development Lomon Co., Ltd.
Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd.
Shikefeng Chemical Co., Ltd.
Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd.
* Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd.
December 29, 2025
https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/cbam-legislation-and-guidance_en
According to Baichuan Yingfu’s statistics, on December 29 (Monday), the inventory of urea companies stood at 1.0886 million tons (including 211,700 tons of warehouse inventory). This represented a decrease of 24,200 tons from the previous Thursday and 57,600 tons from the previous Monday.