*Freight steady*
No major changes in rates.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $5/mt increase.
*Analyst note*
Market sentiment: 30.
*Prices up*
Spot market sees a $16/mt increase.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
*Inventory update*
Levels at 5% capacity.
*Policy watch*
Export policy changes expected soon.
<img src='https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1506744038136-46273834b3fb' alt='Demo image' style='max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px;margin-top:10px;'>
I think ok?
Argus direct
Argus direct
Viewpoint: Australia’s urea outlook steady for 2026
02 Jan 2026 10:02 (+05:00 GMT)
Sydney, 2 January (Argus) — Australia's urea imports in 2026 are likely to maintain the record levels of recent years, as forecasts for favourable weather conditions support strong cropping demand. But low affordability levels among growers could weigh on import demand.
Australia's urea imports are likely to have reached 3.8mn t in 2025, about 5pc below 2024 but 15pc higher than in 2023, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and vessel tracking data from Kpler.
Australian fertilizer importers told Argus they juggle a range of factors when deciding purchase volumes. Considerations include seasonal conditions, fertilizer affordability and crop outlooks, all of which differ across growing regions.
Fertilizer affordability stays low
Fertilizer affordability will be a key determinant of import demand. Global fertilizer affordability reached a three-year low in July 2025 but has recovered in recent months.
Global nutrient affordability stood at 0.72 points in October, up from 0.69 in September and 0.61 in August, Argus data show.
An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability.
Australian granular urea was assessed at A$760-770/t fca Geelong on 18 December. Granular urea had reached A$900/t fca Geelong on 4 September, a 21pc increase from A$745/t fca Geelong on 3 January 2025.
Fluctuations in the value of the Australian dollar will act as a buffer or hurdle to fertilizer affordability. The Australian dollar approached a 2025-high of $0.67 to the US dollar at the end of December, which has dampened fertilizer import costs. If the dollar should fall sharply, as happened in April when it dropped to $0.59, this could weigh on fertilizer affordability and temper imports.
Growers' returns from their crops will be weighed down by global oversupply, given near record production levels of key crops such as wheat, feed alternatives and canola from global producers.
The lack of any supply shock, major geopolitical risks and fading demand from major importers — particularly China — have led to subdued prices for wheat, squeezing farmer margins and potential returns from fertilizer applications.
Fertilizer affordability has not eased enough for there to be a spike in demand but has improved enough to support steady imports from previous years.
Average crop, weather forecasts
Urea imports during the October-September marketing year tend to move in step with Australia's crop outlook (see graph). Favourable seasonal conditions and crop development will support fertilizer application to improve yields, and in turn, domestic fertilizer purchases.
If current soil moisture levels are maintained until the autumn months of March-May, this could support crop area intentions and plantings and, in turn, urea imports. But long-term weather outlooks are unreliable and treated with caution by some importers, Argus understands.
Planting conditions and crop allocation could be influenced by seasonal conditions in coming months. Most of Australia's cropping regions have an even chance of exceeding median rainfall in January-March 2026, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data show.
Australia's crop winter crop outlook will partially depend on planting conditions during April-June. Urea application times differ from year to year based on rainfall patterns and the crop type, but most urea is applied from February to July for pre-planting and topdressing (see graph).
South Australia's expected rainfall in January-March is less favourable, showing a less than 45pc chance of exceeding median rainfall in growing regions. Queensland and New South Wales growing regions have a 40-65pc chance of exceeding median rainfall, while Western Australia has a 45-55pc chance, BoM data show.
The weather and soil moisture outlooks similarly suggest steady imports from previous years, but less chance of an increase from 2024 and 2025 levels.
By Susannah Cornford and Edward Dunlop
Australia urea and winter crop output '000 t
NEXTCHEM urea plant China project has been awarded to MAIRE’s subsidiary NEXTCHEM through its nitrogen technology licensor Stamicarbon for a new large-scale urea facility in Eastern China. The project involves the licensing, process design package, and proprietary equipment supply based on the NX STAMI Urea™ technology, marking another milestone in
The U.S. dollar began 2026 stronger on Friday, snapping last year’s slump against most currencies as investors look ahead to a critical week of economic data that could steer Federal Reserve policy and global markets.
The rebound follows the sharpest annual decline since 2017 of more than 9%, driven by narrowing interest-rate gaps with other economies and persistent worries over U.S. fiscal health, a global trade war and Fed independence — risks that remain in play this year.
Next week’s data deluge, capped by next Friday’s payrolls report, is expected to offer clues on whether the Fed will cut rates further, with markets already pricing in two reductions versus one projected by a divided central bank.
"It's going to be a time to actually do a lot of assessment, we won't have the Fed meeting until the end of the month, but there's no consensus," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.
"This past U.S. government shutdown was unprecedented and inconceivably long, so it really affected the way that data has been taken, has been interpreted, and has been able to really be gauged or taken as fully accurate." Markets in Japan and China were closed on Friday, leading to thin trading volume.
The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.24% to 98.48, with the euro down 0.25% at $1.1716. Euro zone manufacturing activity fell in December to its weakest in nine months, a survey showed. The currency surged more than 13% last year, its biggest annual rise since 2017.
Sterling weakened 0.18% to $1.3445 following a 7.7% increase in 2025, also its biggest yearly jump since 2017.
Investors will also be eyeing whom U.S. President Donald Trump chooses to be the next Fed chair as the term of current head Jerome Powell ends in May. Trump said that he would make his Fed chair pick this month, and many market participants expect Trump's pick to be a proponent of more rate cuts, as the president has repeatedly criticized Powell and the Fed for not reducing borrowing costs at a faster pace and a larger magnitude.
Traders are fully pricing in two cuts this year compared to one projected by a currently divided Fed board.
"We expect that concerns around central bank independence will extend into 2026, and see the upcoming change in Fed leadership as one of several reasons why risks around our Fed funds rate forecast skew dovish," Goldman strategists said in a note to clients.
YEN REMAINS THE EXCEPTION The Japanese yen weakened 0.16% against the greenback to 156.91 per dollar after rising less than 1% against the greenback in 2025. It remained close to a 10-month low of 157.89 touched in November that drew policymaker attention and raised expectations for a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan.
The BOJ hiked interest rates twice last year but that did little to support the yen performance as investors appeared to be looking for a more aggressive pace.
Markets are not pricing in more than a 50% chance of another BOJ rate hike until July, according to LSEG data.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.64% to $89,741.61.
NGC pulls plug on Nutrien
Kejan Haynes
Kejan Haynes
December 31, 2025
6699775
Kejan Haynes
Lead Editor-Newsgathering
kejan.haynes@guardian.co.tt
The National Gas Company (NGC) has issued a formal notice to fertiliser giant Nutrien indicating that all gas meter runs to the Point Lisas facility will be isolated from today, effectively cutting off supply and access to port operations.
The notification could effectively mark the end of the Canadian-owned fertiliser producer’s 45-year presence in Trinidad and Tobago, industry insiders said yesterday.
However, Nutrien management yesterday did not close the door completely on its T&T operations.
In a statement, it said, “We have engaged in discussions in good faith and with integrity to find a comprehensive long-term solution and sustainable path forward. Our Trinidad and Tobago nitrogen operations remain shut down and all options remain under consideration. We will provide further updates as appropriate.”
Guardian Media understands the gas supply contract expires today (January 1, 2026), after which valves will be fully shut. Nutrien will also lose access to the port, removing any remaining ability to operate.
Guardian Media has also learnt that NGC had warned that failure to submit a proposal to settle “outstanding port user fees” by December 31 would be treated as confirmation the company no longer wished to operate in T&T.
The letter, which Guardian media acquired the details of, indicated Nutrien would be barred from accessing National Energy’s facilities at the Savoneta Pier once the deadline passed and advised the company to take steps to safeguard its plant, equipment and personnel ahead of the cut-off.
NGC claims Nutrien owes US$28 million in backdated port fees. Nutrien, however, rejected claims of unpaid fees, saying it had settled all port user invoices issued to it, despite the port contract having expired in 2019.
National Energy continued invoicing Nutrien at the same rates applied under the expired agreement and accepted payment each year, which the company maintains constituted an ongoing contractual arrangement.
For months, the company has maintained that the fees were a unilateral attempt to retroactively apply a new payment formula.
Guardian Media understands a previous correspondence gave Nutrien the option to essentially pay whatever fees they felt were appropriate. But Nutrien maintained there were no “outstanding” invoices despite the chairman’s public statements, which created a public impression Nutrien had failed to pay its obligations.
Hundreds more
on the breadline
Workers are expected to be formally advised of their termination beginning next week. Approximately 400 permanent employees and about 100 contractors remain attached to the operation. About 350 contract workers were sent home on October 25.
For months, Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal has publicly maintained talks were ongoing to resolve the issue.
“We are still in touch with the Nutrien people concerning Trinidad & Tobago. They have still expressed a commitment to work with us and to invest in Trinidad and Tobago,” he told Guardian Media on Tuesday.
Asked if it meant Nutrien was staying, he only repeated, “They have expressed an interest in investing and working with us.”
While talks had not collapsed, they were not particularly engaging, Guardian Media was told. Nutrien sources cited long stretches with no contact from the Government, prompting the company’s top brass to visit the country to speak directly to Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar. She reportedly instructed the minister and chairman to settle negotiations.
According to the Saskatoon StarPhoenix, Nutrien’s controlled shutdown of its Trinidad ammonia and urea operations in October marked a turning point in its retreat from nitrogen production, prompting the company to accelerate asset sales, generating nearly US$900 million, and redirect capital towards potash and other core priorities.
“I’ve taken note as well that the Nutrien company is now in the process of diversifying its production base. They have taken decisions in relation to global markets and so on, and we wish them all the best.” Moonilal said on Tuesday.
Former prime minister and energy minister Stuart Young said earlier this week that because Nutrien spent about US$130 million on its T&T operations in 2024, if Nutrien’s shutdown of its ammonia and urea plants leads to a withdrawal, it would be “a disaster.”
Guardian Media yesterday sent formal correspondence to Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, National Gas Company chairman Gerald Ramdeen and WhatsApped Energy Minister Dr Moonilal seeking comment on the expiry of Nutrien’s gas supply arrangement and the isolation of gas meters at the Point Lisas facility. They did not respond to the requests.
Timeline: Nutrien’s exit from T&T
October 21, 2025
Nutrien announced it would begin a controlled shutdown of its Trinidad Nitrogen operations from October 23, citing port access restrictions by National Energy, unreliable gas supply, and rejecting claims it owed millions in retroactive port fees.
October 23, 2025
Despite reports of a resolution, internal company communications confirmed Nutrien had already shut down operations.
October 25, 2025
About 350 contract workers were sent home as the shutdown continued; carbon dioxide supplies were disrupted nationwide.
October 28, 2025
Massy Gas secured an alternative CO₂ supply from Proman, with government agencies confirming the new arrangement was commissioned on schedule and at no added cost to customers.
October 31, 2025
Proman confirmed it would continue supplying CO2 to Massy Gas for the foreseeable future following Nutrien’s shutdown at Point Lisas.
November 11, 2025
Nutrien confirmed in its third-quarter earnings report that its 2025 sales forecast assumed no further output from its Trinidad operations, formally acknowledging the October 23 controlled shutdown.
November 21, 2025
Senior Nutrien executives met Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and government officials in what was seen as a decisive meeting, following weeks of limited engagement and stalled negotiations.
December 27, 2025
International reporting described the Trinidad shutdown as a turning point in Nutrien’s retreat from nitrogen production, linking the exit to port restrictions, gas supply issues, and political challenges under the new administration.
NFL urea tender bidders:
1 Ameropa
2 Midgulf
3 Fertistream
4 SUVARNABHOOMI ENTERPRISES PRIVATE LIMITED
5 IMR Resources
6 Agricommodities
7 Samsung
8 Dreymoor
9 Aramco Trading
10 Trammo
11 SAFTCO
12 Chasemax International
13 Aditya Birla Global Trading
14 Sun International
15 Keytrade
16 Indorama
17 Agrifields
18 Quest Group
19 Koch
20 OQ Trading
21 Valency
22 Indagro
23 Fertiglobe Trading
24 Macrosource
25 Continental
26 Hexagon