This image contains a news report from CCTV Finance regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Here is the translation:
Houthis: Possible Blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Source: CCTV Finance | March 20, 2026, 14:35 Beijing
According to Russian reports on the 20th, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau in Yemen, stated that in support of Iran, the organization may blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Al-Bukhaiti indicated that the Yemeni Houthis are considering all possible options to support Iran in resisting military strikes from the United States and Israel. If they are forced to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Houthis will only attack vessels belonging to countries involved in strikes against Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It is a strategic "choke point" linking the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Indian Ocean, and is known as the "water corridor" connecting the three continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa.
> Caption: Bab el-Mandeb Strait (File photo)
>
Morning. Urea prices running higher again y'day – Int'l paper saw May AG jump to $760 ($720 Weds), while April Brazil traded $735 (+$15) before offers pulled back. In Nola, April paper traded up to $695, May $680, with Jun values up $50 from last done. Phosphates also firming – Mar DAP traded $656, April MAP Brazil just shy of $900 (+$25).
AG
Mar $660//$680
Apr $750//$765
May $750//$760 – traded $750s, $760s
Cfr Brazil
Mar $635//$660
Apr $740//$780 – traded $735
May $730//$760
Jun $630//$700
Egypt
Apr $730//$780
Nola
Phys: Loaded $690; FH Apr $690; Apr $690
Paper:
Mar $620//$640
Apr $688//$695 – $685, $693, $695
May $675//$690 – traded $680, $679 (1k)
Jun $640//$660 – traded $635 (1k)
Brazil Amsul
Mar $260//$285
UAN Nola
Apr $480//$500
May $455//$510 – traded $490
DAP Nola
Mar $658//$665 – traded $656
Apr $680//$695
MAP Brazil
Mar $775/$820
Apr $890//$920 – traded $895
It is rumored that the previously inspected nitrogen fertilizer variety, 43-0-0, has been explicitly informed that it will no longer be issued with inspection vouchers, even if samples have already been taken. It is estimated that at least 100,000 tons of affected bulk supplies have been impacted as a result. Subsequently, relevant finished products or raw materials will have to be returned to China, adding further pressure to the domestic urea market.
-All fertilizer prices are going up daily, with no respite in sight
UREA
The bad news keeps coming. Every day, for several hours, and even every hour, events are taking place that are shaping the deteriorating landscape for most commodities, including the fertilizer business.
Natural-gas prices at the TTF hub in the Netherlands surged 30% after Iran shut down Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities on 18 March in retaliation for Israel’s attack on facilities that process gas from its South Pars field. Front-month TTF gas opened trading at €72/MWh, up from about €55/MWh at the close on 19 March and pared some gains to trade at €68.90/MWh ($23.15/mmBtu) at 07:42 hrs GMT on the ICE Endex exchange.
Gas for delivery in Q4 jumped to $65.225/MWh.
European gas at the Dutch trading hub was already 70% higher this week before the latest escalation than before the outbreak of the war against Iran on 28 February.
All Iranian ammonia-urea plants are understood to have been taken offline following this week’s strikes against the South Pars gas field in southern Iran, sources said.
Pardis Petrochemical Company (PPC), Khorasan Petrochemical Company (KHPC), Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Company (KPIC), Shiraz Petrochemical Company (SPC), Lordegan Urea Fertilizer Company (LUFC), Masjed Soleyman Petrochemical Industries (MIS), and Razi Petrochemical Company (RPC) had all been operating as normal until this point.
MIS, Lordegan, Pardis, and Shiraz all closed sales tenders this week, offering granular material for late March and/or April shipment, though no sales have been reported.
Interestingly, MIS had been offering granular for prompt loading from Chabahar, a port located east of Hormuz and comparatively “safer” than those in the Persian Gulf.
The official producer price was earlier set at $590/t FOB.
Following on from above, Iran’s National Petrochemical Company (NPC) banned the export of urea and ammonia until further notice, sources said on 19 March, citing an official decree.
Australian farmers are short of fuel and fertilizers ahead of the emerging planting season on the east coast, following excellent rainfall. More than 5 ships are sitting fully loaded in the Middle East, ready to sail. Farmers are unable to get a price for urea because none is currently available.
India is considering all options for a potential upcoming urea tender.
In the Middle East, vessel movements and business are still limited to shipments from Oman, with both Sohar and Sur ports operating, according to market reports.
As before, SIUCI has a product committed to traders through early June under the earlier business. OMIFCO material is available via the usual channels for end-March into April, with market reports citing buyer interest in the low-$700s pt fob.
Securing vessels and insurance to load material is proving to be a partial barrier to business for some buyers.
Multiple freight inquiries are circulating for shipments for end-March into April. This includes those from traders and major suppliers for cargoes to Australia and Thailand. Cargoes continue to load under earlier business, with recent departures including vessels bound for South Africa and India.
Producers elsewhere in the region, reliant on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, are still heard to be loading vessels. Of the fertilizer vessels being monitored by Profercy, none appear to have made efforts to cross the Strait based on vessel tracking data.
Of course, the market is still closely watching the latest developments in the region, particularly given the recent strikes on Iran's South Pars oil and gas fields and the subsequent threats of retaliation against energy infrastructure in the wider region. Oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have been hit by Iranian drones, as a night of violence targeted at regional energy facilities pushed ICE Brent crude prices up by as much as 8pc.
On the business end, Petronas sold 12,000-15,000 t of granular urea at $750/t FOB for an April shipment, the producer confirmed on 18 March. The producer was understood to be targeting sales for part-cargoes at this level last week.
Earlier, on 13 March, Brunei Fertilizer Industries (BFI) was said to have sold at least one 6,000 t granular lot at or just above $710/t FOB via its 12 March sales tender. The producer was offering 2×6,000 t lots for April movement from the Sultanate. Vietnam prilled urea is said to be offered at USD 800 PMT FOB.
Dangote sold 30,000 t granular urea at $700/t FOB for 1H April shipment from Lekki, the producer said early 18 March. Last business out of Nigeria saw Dangote sell 30,000 t granular at $665/t FOB for April shipment from Lekki two weeks ago.
AOA of Algeria is understood to have sold 25,000 t granular urea at $754/t FOB for loading in late April, sources said on 19 March. The sale is up $20/t on the last reported business out of Algeria.
Last week, AOA was said to have sold another 25,000 t of granular at $734/t FOB for April movement from North Africa, with that sale up $54/t on the prior week's business.
What is clear is that there is no clarity, but a limited supply supports higher prices. What is going to happen tomorrow is anyone’s guess. FOB urea prices will keep going up. Inflation is rising, banks are raising interest rates, food and gasoline prices are rising, and a recession seems inevitable.
PHOSPHATES
BRAZIL
MAP offers to Brazil have jumped further this week, but no new sales have been reported. Some suppliers are out of the market while buyers are balking at the latest prices.
Offers to Brazil early this market week were reported at around $850-860pt cfr or cfr equivalent. By 18 March, some suppliers were said to have offered MAP as high as $900pt cfr, including for Moroccan product.
Purefert reported on 17 March that it had again stepped away from the Brazilian market to reassess developments. Last week, the supplier sold 7,000t MAP for April loading to Brazil at $790pt cfr, followed by a further 10,000t at $800pt cfr.
Market participants note the $800pt cfr deal from last week was the last confirmed business.
Brazil’s MAP prices last week surged $60pt with the range of $790-800pt cfr, the highest recorded since August 2022. In 2022, market prices reached a peak (and record high) average of $1,295pt cfr in March, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
With crop prices so far not rising to anywhere near the levels they reached in 2022, including in Brazil, farm margins are being squeezed rapidly. Soybean sales in Brazil for the current season have stalled at roughly 46% completion, according to local sources.
Brazil’s inland MAP prices are reported to have soared to roughly $1,000pt fot on the back of rising import prices and a surge in costs, particularly for truck freight from ports to Mato Grosso.
INDIA
In India, Mosaic reported the sale of 40,000t DAP for H2 April shipment at $805pt cfr on 18 March. Still, the activity is understood again to be a trader operating in India rather than a direct sale to a buyer.
Last week, OCP reported it sold 50,000t DAP to India for April loading at $800-805pt cfr. However, multiple reports suggested this was also to a trader taking a position. These levels are already nearing the 2025 peak of $810pt cfr India last August.
However, there are reports that buyers have been more active this week, with question marks building over Q2 DAP deliveries and domestic production amid ongoing supply constraints.
Bids are generally reported at $750-755pt cfr, up from roughly $730pt cfr last week, with most offers reported no lower than $805pt cfr.
The latest reflective DAP activity was as low as $682pt cfr over a month ago from Maaden for February loading.
Two sales had been reported at $725-730pt cfr recently. The first, with duty-free status for April/May arrivals from Australia, is understood to have been scrapped due to flooding in Australia, while the second from South Korea is now disputed.
As a result, the India DAP price is pegged at an indicative $750-805pt cfr based on the bid/offer spread pending confirmed new sales activity.
Maaden was expected to shortly finalise a DAP cargo to India for March loading but the latest events in the Middle East put this into question, particularly with no clear arrival month.
OCP is reportedly meeting with Indian customers to discuss 2026/27 annual DAP/TSP contract shipments, which are likely to start in April. The supplier is understood to be seeking an increase in volumes from its previous 1.5Mt DAP and 1.0Mt TSP agreement for 2025/26, with buyers seeking reduced TSP volumes. No deal has yet been confirmed.
The $805pt cfr DAP offer level to India reflects a $265pt loss to sell inland against the prevailing MRP/NBS rates in India. Importers are relying on additional ‘disadvantage support’ payments from the DoF to not lose money. The DoF is reportedly in discussions over extending the extra support into the upcoming Kharif season from April.
The DoF also highlighted in a press release on 10 March that it kept the DAP Maximum Retail Price to farmers at INR1,350 per bag throughout the Rabi season. The INR27,000pt level now reflects just $294pt with India likely seeking to maintain such rates through Kharif despite the extreme subsidy and special support cost burden to the state.
However, India set out an initial 2026/27 budget of INR1.71 trillion ($18.77 billion) for fertilizers in the country’s budget announcement on 1 February. The allocation for imported P&K for the new year, starting 1 April, was set at INR200 billion ($2.2 billion), a 20% drop from the revised 2025/26 budget of INR250 billion.
CHINA
China’s domestic DAP/MAP prices remain stable, with reserves reportedly being released, export controls on other phosphate fertilizers increasing, and continued government pressure to maintain rates.
This comes despite record sulphur prices due to the Middle East crisis and slowing production rates.
DAP production rates across China are now seen at 53% of capacity, reflecting 250-255,000t weekly. While down from an average of 60-63% in March 2025 (reflecting a roughly 250,000t year-over-year decline), China’s production rates are still up from roughly 49% of capacity at the start of February. March is historically a high-production month in China to support spring-season sales.
The China Agricultural Means of Production Association called for the release of fertilizer reserves, including NPK, DAP, and MAP, starting in March to support demand for the spring planting season in a notice on 9 March. On 13 March, China suspended SSP and DSP exports, with mixed commentary over whether TSP has also been halted.
The spring season runs from late February to mid-May and relies heavily on winter storage, which is a key reason for the current ban on DAP/MAP/NP/SSP/DSP and possibly TSP exports. The level of domestic stocks seen in April is understood to be a barometer for China’s normal timeline for reopening exports. The CPFIA, two weeks ago, advised suppliers to maintain stable pricing for buyers in the upcoming season.
Latest indications for domestic Chinese DAP prices remain at CNY4,000-4,250pt ex-warehouse ($582-619pt). In USD, these prices are also unchanged. Delivered prices are reported at CNY4,100-4,700pt ($597-684pt). These prices have fallen well below average production costs for multiple Chinese suppliers in light of the latest sulphur price surge, and a number of sources indicate that suppliers are suspending new quotes and lobbying for further domestic price rises.
China’s domestic DAP prices jumped by roughly $ 100 per ton between early December and early January. Recent DAP offers were at their highest level since records began in 2009, and this is expected to have a notable impact on domestic demand if maintained or increased again through H1 2026.
Domestic MAP11-44 prices are also pegged stable at CNY3,850-3,900pt exw ($560-568pt), unchanged in USD. These prices have still increased an average of roughly $80-85pt since the start of 2026. Delivered MAP11-44 values are reported at CNY3,900-4,150pt ($567-604pt).
DAP/MAP exports from China remain absent, amid growing expectations that the major market will not open until August. Latest Latin America indications suggest DAP export deals could now be secured at up to $800pt fob, with some offers reaching $820-830pt fob. Even the latest reported offers to India reflect as high as $790pt fob China.
The China DAP price is now pegged at an indicative $790-800pt fob based on prices in Southeast Asia and Latin America. These levels reflect a roughly $200pt premium on domestic returns.
Some reports suggest ongoing attempts to export NP products, including 10-50 and 8-40 with organic matter, but officially, the export halt on DAP, MAP, and NPs was previously extended by Chinese authorities until August 2026.
Before the latest controls, China’s SSP20% export prices had hit $270-280pt fob with offers over $300pt fob. The average price of powdered SSP12% in China is reported at CNY 710/pt ex-warehouse ($ 103/pt).
China’s TSP export allowance has yet to be confirmed, though the latest Brazilian TSP prices reflect netbacks to China at roughly $620-625pt fob, up from $600-610pt fob previously.
DAP/MAP exports from China were just 110,000t in January-February 2026 amid the ban on exports, though this is up slightly from 98,000t in the same period 2025, according to preliminary customs data. It remains down from almost 800,000t DAP/MAP exports in Jan-Feb 2021.
DAP exports in the first two months of 2026 reached 20,000t, down from 66,000t in the same period in 2025. MAP exports in Jan-Feb reached 90,000t, up from roughly 32,000t in the same period in 2025.
Despite the export halt for DAP/MAP from China into May 2025, the country’s overall DAP/MAP/TSP/SSP/NP/NPK exports in the full year 2025 jumped 16% yr-on-yr to 12.78Mt from 10.99Mt. The total was the highest phosphate fertilizer exports from the market since the 13.97Mt exported in 2021.
Total DAP/MAP exports in the full year 2025 reached 5.36Mt, down 18% yr-on-yr from 6.57Mt in 2024 and down 47% from 2021 exports of 10.04Mt.
POTASH
Potash markets worldwide remained largely stable despite the West Asia conflict, which has wreaked havoc on global energy and fertilizer markets. Now, into its nineteenth day, the turmoil has had significant repercussions, particularly in oil, nitrogen, and phosphate markets. Despite this, potash prices held largely stable as demand and supply remained balanced, with rising logistical costs posing the only downside risk to supplier margins in the near term. In China, increased supply availability from both imports and domestic producers has exerted downward pressure on prices, particularly at North-Eastern ports, reflecting comfortable supply conditions and subdued downstream buying. In Southeast Asia, prices have remained broadly stable even as uncertainty persists, with buyers largely concluding deals on granular MOP as inventories appear sufficient through April, according to a regional supplier. More activity is expected to pick up post Ramadan holidays. In Brazil, prices have edged higher for a third consecutive week at $380-390/t CFR, as the absence of lower-priced material and firm supplier offers support a tightening market, although demand remains weak with farmers concerned about affordability.
In Northwest Europe, prices have also held steady, with only modest upward expectations driven by seasonal demand, while logistical disruptions in the Baltic have marginally influenced freight costs. Meanwhile, in India, contract negotiations have stalled as suppliers push for higher settlement prices, but buyers resist amid cost pressures, resulting in a temporary impasse and delayed procurement activity. Across these regions, a consistent theme emerges- potash prices are not experiencing the sharp volatility seen in nitrogen or phosphates, largely due to balanced supply-demand fundamentals and cautious purchasing behaviour.
However, the primary emerging risk is the escalation of freight costs, particularly on routes impacted by ongoing Middle East tensions. Freight rates from the Red Sea to key Asian destinations have risen significantly, in some cases by as much as 50%, with further increases observed across other major trade routes. A supplier in Southeast Asia said freight costs have risen by 30-35% since the onset of the war. Some supply disruptions have been noted from Israeli suppliers facing shipment delays due to stoppages triggered by security sirens, according to a market participant. While these higher logistics costs have not yet translated into immediate price spikes, they could increasingly compress supplier margins and could eventually necessitate price adjustments if sustained.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia benchmarks continued to edge higher this week as the Middle East conflict deepens, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Israeli strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field on 18 March knocked out all domestic ammonia-urea production, with Iran's NPC imposing an immediate export ban on both products. Compounding this, Maaden shut two of its three ammonia lines in Saudi Arabia, removing roughly 2 Mt/yr of capacity. Even if the Strait were to reopen in the near term, these production outages mean any market recovery would be gradual. Against that backdrop, prices have continued to move higher across most benchmarks. In North Africa, Algeria's Sorfert confirmed a 15,000 t sale at $702.5/t FOB – up $77.5/t from business done before the Strait closure – while Egypt's Abu Qir is offering late-March availability at $710/t FOB. Northwest European delivered values followed, rising around $43/t week on week, with further support from sharply higher freight rates, bunker costs, and TTF natural gas prices. Oman drew attention after the Gas Ammon was seen loading a part cargo at Salalah before heading to Sur for a second parcel – just a week after fuel tanks at the port were targeted and terminal operations were suspended. Spot values also moved higher in East Asia, with indications reaching around $550/t CFR into Taiwan and China, and $560/t CFR into South Korea, as buyers increasingly turn to Indonesian and Chinese tonnes to replace the disrupted Gulf supply. Formosa reissued its tender for 10,000-15,000 t for late-April delivery after the previous round failed to conclude. Southeast Asia continues to tighten as stronger demand from India and East Asia absorbs available prompt supply. Values edged up to around $520/t FOB, and the outlook points to further tightening ahead, with both PAU and Petronas heading into maintenance in Q2. India's supply situation is becoming more acute. FACT reissued its tender for 8,000 t after the original round attracted no offers, and importers are increasingly looking at Chinese-origin material – though offers are circulating as high as $650-700/t CFR. The timing adds pressure: DAP and NP/NPK producers are expected to restart from mid-to-late April, meaning demand will begin to recover just as supply remains at its most constrained. In the US Gulf, attention is on Woodside's Beaumont plant, which is expected to load its first ammonia export cargo onto Nutrien's Libramont around 20 March. GCA, meanwhile, remains offline following a planned outage that began in January – a restart initially expected in mid-February, then mid-March, is now anticipated for the end of the week.
Hi guys – hope you had a good week so far!
Please see below the weekly report!
Nexus Weekly Update
19/03/26
In the Far East and South East Asia, it has been a very quiet week, with significantly reduced enquiry seen across the basin. Traders are finding it very difficult to secure business across almost all commodities, largely due to bunker prices caused by a lack of supply. As a result of these costs, it has been noted that more owners are using their own vessels, even when faced with larger than expected ballasts. This has therefore reduced the number of reported fixtures, further adding to the overall quiet sentiment in the area. Looking ahead, there seems to be little hope that the market will improve in the near term; at some point buyers may become more active, but for the time being this does not appear to be on the horizon.
Activity in the Indian Ocean remained subdued, with the majority of vessels still stuck in the Gulf unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz. While governmental talks about the safe passage of certain vessels are ongoing, it remains much the same as last week where transit is not possible. There are some Indian coastal trips being fixed, however due to the scarce availability of bunkers longer haul routes are very much on the back burner. Further South, there is a large amount of congestion building in East and South African ports, where lineups are ever increasing. While some cargoes are surfacing in the market, a large disparity continues to exist between the bid and offer, with end users unwilling to commit to today's inflated numbers when tomorrow continues to remain so uncertain.
The Mediterranean and Black Sea had a stagnant week. Steel runs from Turkey to the Continent and the usual cargoes from Egypt have provided some support to an otherwise subdued Med market. A growing number of cargo enquiries ex-Black Sea were seen in the market this week. However, rising bunker prices have discouraged some of these cargoes from firming up, with stems instead being postponed to later dates. Thus the rates have been slowly declining in the basin due to the lack of firm cargoes.
The US market has continued to weaken this week at an accelerated pace. A significant drop in enquiry has led to a growing tonnage list, putting increasing pressure on rates. The Baltic front haul rate from the USG to the Far East has fallen by almost 30% this month. Fronthaul demand remains limited, with rates continuing to decline despite the unappealing conditions in the Far East. This lack of activity is further contributing to the build-up of tonnage, adding additional downward pressure on the market.
The ECSA market has had another soft week, with reduced cargo volumes leading to a decline in rates. However, sentiment suggests the market may be bottoming out, as owners appear more confident in managing elevated bunker prices and are beginning to commit to forward cargoes. The West African market has been supported by a steady flow of ores and concentrates, with owners commanding a premium for any direction outside of the Atlantic.
Bunkers continued to remain volatile, following Brent price movements. Brent pushed higher yesterday after reports of an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest globally. This marks a clear step up in escalation, with energy infrastructure now in the crosshairs for the first time in this conflict, with Iran also targeting installations in Saudi, Qatar and the UAE. Bunkers currently sit at 1,115pmt in Singapore and 870pmt in Gibraltar further showing the regional split.
LONDON (ICIS)– In Algeria, 25,000 tonnes of granular urea sold at $754/tonne FOB for shipment in end April to an open destination.
Maaden concludes 1H APRIL 60KT DAP TO EABC Ethiopia $800CFR
All Ammonia- Urea units are down after the South Pars gas units were struck yesterday
Good morning,
this is our weekly update on Baltic levels:
$585-610 FOB pUrea, +$50-60 for automotive grade
$650-680 FOB gUrea,
$430-450 FOB AN,
$390-410 FOB UAN,
$400-460 FOB T16
Freight 30kt:
Baltic-1p Brazil – $50-55
Baltic-2p WC Mexico – $75-80
Baltic-2p EC Mexico – $55-60
50-60kt
Baltic-1p WC India – $55-65
Morning. Conflict escalation and targeted attacks on energy facilities in M.East brought firmer tone to Urea paper toward end of y'day, as buyers stepped in (and up), with activity focusing across Nola and cfr Brazil contracts. Mkts framed:
AG
Mar $660//$680
Apr $732//$750 – traded $735
May $720//$735 – traded $720
Cfr Brazil
Mar $635//$655
Apr $720//$740 – traded $705, $717, $720
May $680//$700 – traded $670, $680 (2.5k)
Egypt
Apr $730//$780
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $652, Mar $660. Fh Apr $652. Lh Mar/Fh Apr $665; Apr $655
Paper:
Mar $620//$635
Apr $657//$665 – traded $650, $662, $665, $660, $663s
May $625//$675
Jun $585//$600 – traded $582 (1k)
Brazil Amsul
Mar $260//$285
UAN Nola
Apr $455//$500
May $455//$500
DAP Nola
Mar $645//$656
Apr $660//$685
MAP Brazil
Mar $775/$820
Apr $870//$895 – traded $870
Urea – Midweek Update: Pace of price gains slows, yet fob values edge higher
The majority of Middle East supply remains blocked from international trade, resulting in ever mounting challenges for major import markets.
The pace of global price gains has slowed, yet urea and amsul values continue to edge higher by the day.
At most major fob points, spot prices for granular urea are now established at $700 per tonne free-on-board (pt fob) and above. Producers in the Black Sea, Brunei, Malaysia, Egypt and Nigeria have been actively placing product. Traders have been willing to extend positions, although the stakes have become far higher.
In business yesterday, Nigeria’s Dangote sold 30,000t for April shipment at $700pt fob. Egyptian producers have placed over 30,000t at $710-720pt fob since late last week.
The situation remains incredibly difficult for major markets, including the USA, Australia and India, with offshore replacement costs advancing daily.
The global market is watching India closely given any move to secure large volumes will have significant implications in what is already a tight market. With the Indian domestic market subsidised, all import purchases are on government account.
Authorities elsewhere, including Southeast Asia and Turkey, are quickly assessing local supply and utilising policy options, including restrictions on re-exports, to mitigate the impact on farmers and industrial buyers.
In some markets, efforts to secure amsul have ramped up, while recent news effectively banning Chinese NK exports is limiting options for buyers in Latin America.
For markets approaching peak application, such as the USA, advancing replacement costs are forcing liquidity and local values higher.
In New Orleans, barge business has been concluded today above $650ps ton, over $710pt cfr metric equivalent, with bid interest for full vessels for April arrival evident marginally below this level. The most recent price trend is available in the chart.
European warehouse values are also up around €40pt with quotes in La Pallice now at €700pt fca.
For now, buyers having to step in are managing exposure carefully, taking positions day by day rather than committing to large volumes.
Should India move to secure significant supplies — a decision the market is watching closely — it would tighten an already stretched market further and force buyers everywhere to reassess their strategies quickly.
Potassium Fertilizer Market Conditions – March 18
Muriate of Potash (Potassium Chloride)
March 18 Potassium Fertilizer Market Conditions
Today, the market price of potassium chloride is operating with weak stability, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. Under the continuous input of guaranteed supply sources, the market is basically in a state of relative wait-and-see. Currently, except for limited spot supplies of Laotian white potash in some areas, the supply of other varieties is acceptable.
The mainstream market arrival price for domestic 60% crystals is currently 3,250–3,300, with price differences remaining across different regions and transaction prices negotiated individually; 57% powder arrival is 3,000–3,050. The ex-factory sales price for Qinghai Salt Lake 60% potassium chloride base spot remains at 2,800 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory sales price for 57% potassium chloride products is 2,660 yuan/ton, with freight added separately.
Port Price Reference:
Qingdao Port, Lianyungang, Yantai Port, Zhanjiang Port, Zhenjiang Port: Self-pickup price for 62% white potash: 3,530–3,600.
Qingdao Port, Yantai Port: Large granular red potash: 3,330–3,400.
Yingkou Port: Mainstream self-pickup price for 62% white potash: 3,420–3,480; self-pickup for large granular red potash: 3,250–3,300.
Lianyungang, Weifang Port: Self-pickup for 60% Laotian white: 3,330–3,360.
Fangcheng Port, Zhanjiang Port: 60% red powder port self-pickup: 3,180–3,230 (Decreased by 20).
Northeast Border Trade: 62% Russian white potash port rail-delivery price: 3,300–3,330; border port 60% large granular: 3,060–3,150.
Currently, port stocks of potassium chloride are around 2.71 million tons… Recently, new arrivals at the ports have been limited. Under the guidance of national policies, the supplies of major importers are being released one after another to downstream factories… Domestic potassium chloride equipment at Zangge has resumed production, but has not yet reached full capacity; domestic supplies are mainly focused on guaranteed supply shipments.
Potassium Sulfate
Today, the price of potassium sulfate continues to operate firmly, and low-end quotes are still decreasing. It remains difficult for Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers to procure raw materials; the market price of sulfuric acid continues to rise and supply is tight. Therefore, the operating rate of most Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturer units remains at a low level, and in the short term, there are no signs of significant improvement; the resumption of operations is nowhere in sight.
Currently, the mainstream arrival price for SDIC Luobupo 52% powder is mostly around 3,700–3,850, and the arrival price for Qinghai 50% powder is around 3,650 yuan/ton, with transactions negotiated individually and prices varying by brand. Mannheim potassium sulfate 52% powder mainstream ex-factory is around 4,200–4,300, with high-end at 4,400–4,500; 50% powder is 4,150; 50% granular potassium sulfate ex-factory is around 4,100–4,200, with actual transactions negotiated individually.
Market Outlook:
Under the guidance of the national guaranteed supply policy, backbone potassium fertilizer enterprises are mostly continuing to release goods to downstream factories. Most downstream factories have a certain supply of raw materials, so the remaining demand in the potassium chloride market is relatively limited, and market sentiment has weakened as a result. In the short term, the potassium chloride market is expected to continue its weak and stable operation. Driven by both high costs and low supply, the price trend for potassium sulfate continues to remain firm. Short-term fluctuations in the potassium fertilizer market are expected to be limited. Continue to monitor industry policy news, the international situation, potassium chloride import arrivals (port stocks are currently declining), and the subsequent release of goods by major potassium fertilizer suppliers.
Nitrogen Nitrogen Consulting: Ammonium Chloride Market Price Report for March 18
March 18 (Wednesday), 2026
Ammonium Chloride Market Price Situation on March 18
Today, ammonium chloride prices continued to run firmly. New order transactions are limited, and most combined soda enterprises are reluctant to sell and have temporarily stopped taking orders, mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. At present, they are primarily fulfilling previous pending orders, with only a few enterprises releasing small amounts of stock. Downstream manufacturers have a high level of acceptance for the new prices of ammonium chloride, and a "buy-up" mentality still exists. As low-priced orders from the earlier period decrease, the market transaction focus continues to move upward. Active demand coupled with rotating maintenance of some combined soda plants has caused the supply of ammonium chloride to remain tight, supporting further price increases.
In the East China, Central China, and North China regions, the ammonium chloride market trading is vigorous. Combined soda enterprises are reluctant to sell and are releasing small amounts of stock. The delivered price for dry ammonium is 650-700, and the mainstream delivered price for wet ammonium is 570-620.
Factory Price Reference:
Zhejiang Longshan Chemical: Wet ammonium is temporarily not accepting orders and not quoting; the plant is operating at reduced capacity.
Lianyungang Debang: Temporarily not accepting orders and not quoting; the plant is operating at reduced capacity.
Jiangsu Huachang: Wet ammonium is temporarily not quoting; dry ammonium is mainly for self-use; the plant is operating at reduced capacity.
Jiangsu Zhongyan Kunshan: Temporarily not accepting orders and not quoting; the plant will stop for maintenance in late March, planned for one month.
Xuzhou Fengcheng Salt Chemical: Temporarily not quoting.
Hubei Yingcheng Xindu Chemical: Temporarily not quoting.
Sichuan Hebang: Dry ammonium ex-factory price is 650, up by 30.
Chongqing Hebang: Soda-ammonium plant is shut down; restart time is undetermined.
Chongqing Xiangyu Salt Chemical: Temporarily not quoting.
Shaanxi Xinghua: Shut down for maintenance; restart time is undetermined.
Tianjin Alkali Plant: Dry ammonium ex-factory price is 620.
Henan Junma: Dry ammonium ex-factory price is 640; the plant is operating at reduced capacity.
Henan Jinshan: Dry ammonium is temporarily not quoting.
Inner Mongolia Wofeng Agriculture: Temporarily not accepting orders and not quoting; the plant is operating at reduced capacity.
Anhui Hongsifang: Wet ammonium ex-factory price is 600, up by 50.
Anhui Debang Xinghua: No stock of ammonium chloride; temporarily not quoting.
Ammonium Sulfate Price Market Trend – March 18
March 18, 2026 (Wednesday)
Ammonium Sulfate Overview
The ammonium sulfate market continued its firm development today. Against the background of no relief in the international situation and high-level support from international urea, domestic ammonium sulfate prices continue to explore upward trends. Prices for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate are still rising, but as prices move to high levels, downstream procurement sentiment has become increasingly cautious. Today's auction prices for coking-grade ammonium sulfate saw both rises and falls, with the overall growth rate weakening compared to the previous period. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate market will continue to experience strong but narrow fluctuations in the short term; continue to monitor the impact of international situational developments.
Specific Company Quotes and Auction Results
| Company | Product/Transaction Type | Price Details (RMB/ton) | Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Sinopec Hunan Petrochemical | Caprolactam-grade (Ex-factory) | 1620 | – |
| Shanxi Yangguang Coking | Auction (1200 tons) | Starting: 1350; Final: 1405 | Down 55-60 |
| Henan Jinma Energy | Coking-grade Auction (800 tons) | Final: 1370 | Down 10 |
| Henan Ruzhou Tianrui Coal Coking | Ex-factory | 1310 (Excl. loading fee) | Up 45 |
| Anhui Liuan Iron & Steel Group | Auction | Final: 1355 | Up 20 |
| Fujian Tianchen Yaolong New Materials | Caprolactam-grade Auction | Starting: 1480; Final: 1550-1555 | Up 100 from last week |
| Henan Luoyang Longze Coking | Latest Quote | 1310 | Up 45 |
| Shandong Laiwu Steel | Coking-grade Auction | Starting: 1350; Final: 1440 | Up 54 |
| Jianlong Xilin Steel | Auction (260 tons) | Starting: 900; Final: 1240 | Down 10 |
| Bayannur Energy | Auction (170 tons) | Starting: 1250; Final: 1250 | Down 30 |
| Shenhua Wuhai Energy Xilaifeng | Auction (560 tons) | Starting: 1250; Final: 1250 | Down 20-30 |
| Henan Shuncheng | Latest Transaction | 1390 (Excl. loading fee) | Down 10 from last week |
| Henan Shoushan Coking | Auction Price | 1310 (Excl. loading fee) | Up 45 |
Caprolactam-Grade Factory Price References
Shandong Luxi Chemical: 1540 (Caprolactam premium grade); Up 30
Yankuang Lunan Chemical: 1510 (Caprolactam-grade)
Shanxi Lanhua: Unit shut down for maintenance; no quote currently
Hualu Hengsheng (Power Plant): 1445 (Ammonium sulfate crystals); Up 10
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng (Caprolactam-grade):
Bulk material: 1550; Up 10
50kg small bags: 1610; Up 10
Ton bags: 1620; Up 10
25kg small bags: 1630; Up 10
Baling Hengyi: 1530 (Caprolactam-grade domestic quote)
Cangzhou Xuyang: 1600 (Caprolactam-grade bulk); Up 50
Dongming Xuyang: 1550 (Caprolactam-grade)
* Guangxi Hengyi: 1560 (Caprolactam-grade ex-factory)
Nitrogen & Phosphorus Consultation: MAP and DAP Price Market Trends (March 18)
March 18, 2026 (Wednesday)
Today, the Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) market overall maintained a firm operation. In Hubei, 55% powder ex-factory prices are 4,000–4,050 RMB/ton. Most factories still have not issued price quotes and are temporarily not accepting orders. Affected by the continuous rise in sulfur prices, some traders have once again entered a state of suspended sales. Downstream inquiries are following up, mainly based on rigid demand, but the circulation of goods is insufficient, and actual transactions are restricted. Overall, price costs remain high and firm, while downstream acceptance is average; in the short term, high-level firm operation will continue.
Raw Materials:
1. Sulfur:
Today, port sulfur prices continued their strong upward trend. In the morning, the imported granular sulfur market remained at high levels. Buying quotes were 4,800 RMB/ton, while selling offers were concentrated at 4,820–4,830 RMB/ton. Supported by tight supply from the Middle East and low arrival volumes at ports, holders have a strong mindset. Recently, trading conditions have improved, and quotes remain high and firm. Close attention will be paid to changes in spot market transactions in the afternoon. As of press time, the mainstream granular reference price at Zhenjiang Port in the Yangtze River region is 4,800–4,830 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton from the previous working day.
Today, the liquid sulfur market in the Shandong region continued its upward trend. Due to international instability, concerns over resource shortages have intensified. Additionally, driven by price increases in surrounding areas, trade procurement followed up actively, and auction resources showed significant premiums. Mainstream transaction prices are 4,505–4,573 RMB/ton. Most port resources have suspended shipments, with a strong sentiment of "hoarding and reluctant to sell". As of now, the Shandong liquid sulfur market price is 4,400–4,573 RMB/ton, up 172–173 RMB/ton from the previous working day.
2. Synthetic Ammonia:
Today, the mainstream ex-factory price in the Hubei market is 2,550–2,610 RMB/ton (bank acceptance). Some companies raised their quotes by 70–130 RMB/ton. Some ammonia companies have average order intake, and high-price shipments are under pressure. There are expectations for idled ammonia companies to resume and expectations for new production capacity releases in surrounding areas. Downstream buyers have become more cautious, mostly purchasing for rigid demand, with an active outlook for short-term shipments.
Today, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong region is 2,370–2,550 RMB/ton. The mainstream is stable, and short-term supply in the field is tight, maintaining firm operation. However, surrounding markets have declined significantly, and with supply recovery imminent, the atmosphere is cautious, mainly consisting of rigid demand procurement.
3. Phosphate Rock:
Today, phosphate rock prices remained stable. In the Hubei region, the tax-inclusive ship-board quote for 28% grade is 980–1,000 RMB/ton, and the ship-board price for 30% grade remains near 1,100–1,120 RMB/ton. The ship-board price for 30% grade in Guizhou is temporarily maintained at 980–1,020 RMB/ton, with transactions negotiated individually.
Market Price Reference:
Hubei: 55% powder ex-factory 3,970–4,050; 55% granular ex-factory 4,000–4,050
Shandong: 55% powder mainstream delivered 4,150; 58% powder delivered 4,350–4,400
Anhui: 55% powder delivered 4,130–4,170
Henan: 55% powder delivered 4,120–4,150
Sichuan: 55% powder cash ex-factory reference 3,950
Jiangsu: 55% powder delivered near 4,100–4,150; 58% powder delivered 4,350
Hunan: 55% powder delivered near 4,100–4,150
Yunnan: 55% powder ex-factory 3,900–3,950; 58% powder ex-factory 4,200–4,280
Northeast China: 55% powder Bayuquan Port self-pickup 4,080–4,100 (actual negotiation)
Factory Price Reference:
Hubei Ezhou: 55% powder ex-factory – temporarily no quote, actual negotiation
Hubei Chen'ao: 55% powder ex-factory – temporarily no quote
Hubei Liuguo: 55% powder ex-factory – transaction negotiated individually
Hubei Kehai: 55% powder cash ex-factory – temporarily no quote
Hubei Dongsheng: 55% powder – no quote
Hubei Xiangyun: 55% powder ex-factory 4,050
Gansu Wunfu MAP: 60% powder – actual negotiation
Yunnan Zhongzheng: 55% powder ex-factory 3,950
Jiyuan Toyota Fertilizer: 55% – temporarily stopped orders
Henan Jiyuan Wanyang: 55% powder – temporarily no quote, actual negotiation
Industrial Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Today, the market price of industrial-grade MAP operated firmly. The mainstream ex-factory price for 73% industrial-grade MAP is near 6,800–6,850, with actual negotiation on an individual basis. Raw material costs provide high support, while corporate profit margins are shrinking. Factories are maintaining a suspension of quotes and order signing, focusing on executing order shipments. Low-priced sources in the market are tightening. Downstream procurement is based on need, and high-price transactions have slowed down, with small orders dominating the market and an overall cautious wait-and-see attitude. Comprehensively, affected by policies and raw material costs, the industrial MAP market is expected to maintain a tight balance in the short term, with prices fluctuating at high levels. Future attention should focus on upstream raw materials, industry policy implementation, and downstream demand.
Xinjiang: 73% market warehouse exit price reference 7,050–7,400
Yunnan: 73% ex-factory 6,750–6,850
Hubei: 73% ex-factory 6,770–6,850; 72% ex-factory 6,700–6,750
Sichuan: 73% ex-factory near 6,950–7,100; 72% ex-factory 6,850–7,050
Guizhou: 73% ex-factory 6,750–7,100
Sichuan Shikefeng: 73% ex-factory – actual negotiation
Sichuan Longmang Dadi: 73% ex-factory – no quote
Sichuan Hongda: 72% ex-factory – actual negotiation
Hubei Xiangyun: 73% – actual negotiation
Hubei Jiashili: 73% industrial MAP – temporarily no quote, mainly actual negotiation
Hubei Xinyangfeng: 73% industrial MAP – temporarily no quote, actual transaction negotiated individually
Kingenta: 73% MAP – actual ex-factory transaction negotiated individually
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)
Today, the price trend of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) continued to be firm. Influenced by policy regulations, market sentiment has become more cautious. However, the price of raw material sulfur continues to soar, providing strong cost support. As the time for spring plowing fertilizer use approaches, basic fertilizer demand is expected to be further released, and some shortages still exist in the market. However, under the combined influence of "guaranteed supply and stable price" policies and low downstream willingness to accept high prices, the market will continue its high-level firm pattern in the short term, with limited space for fluctuation. Future attention should focus on the release rhythm of reserve goods, actual market arrival progress, and further follow-up of downstream demand.
Price Reference:
Shandong: 64% granular warehouse exit 4,650–4,700; 57% brown warehouse exit 4,200–4,250
Hebei: 64% granular warehouse exit 4,550–4,650; 57% primary color warehouse exit 4,100–4,150
Hubei: 64% mainstream ex-factory 4,150 (actual negotiation)
Anhui: 57% powder delivered 4,100–4,150
Jiangsu: 64% granular warehouse exit 4,550–4,650
Liaoning: 64% port self-pickup 4,550–4,600; 57% self-pickup 4,150–4,200
Heilongjiang: 64% arrival 4,700–4,800; 57% arrival near 4,200–4,280
Xinjiang: 64% arrival near 4,500–4,700
Enterprise Price Reference:
Hubei Yihua: 64% – negotiated individually
Hubei Huangmailing: 64% – no quote, actual negotiation
Hubei Liuguo (Xinguan): 64% ex-factory – no quote
Hubei Dayukou: 64% – no quote
Hubei Xingfa: 64% ex-factory – no quote
Hubei Xiangyun: 64% – no quote
Hubei Dongsheng: 64% – no quote, negotiated individually
Inner Mongolia Dadicloud: Temporarily suspended quotes
Gansu Jinchang DAP: 64% ex-factory – temporarily no quote, mainly executing pre-received orders
* Shaanxi: 60% ex-factory 4,350