Ammonia prices start to soar as cuts at key production hubs begin to bite
March 27th, 2026 by Richard Ewing / Head of Ammonia / Deputy Editor at Profercy Nitrogen
Today’s settlement of the Tampa contract for April loadings of ammonia at $775pt cfr, up an eye-catching $160pt from the March agreement, means the US benchmark is now within touching distance of a level not seen since early 2023.
The huge jump of over 25% in the key index comes amid the severe supply squeeze in the Middle East, with the conflict in Iran and surrounding region removing more than 315,000t per month from the merchant market indefinitely.
Unlike urea and nitrates markets, ammonia buyers had been spared some of the pricing pain due to robust supply in Northeast and Southeast Asia, but spot prices East of Suez are now rapidly increasingly as players scramble for replacement cargoes.
Adding fuel to the inflationary fire are capacity curtailments of 50% at some Algerian producers on feedstock cuts and the 4-6 week shutdown of Yara’s large Pilbara plant in Western Australia that leaves the Norwegian major short of 60-70,000t per month for local and foreign clients.
While plants in the Americas are understood to be performing well, cargoes from a pair of large new export-focused plants in Texas have yet to hit their stride but should start flowing regularly from early Q2.
Such major new capacity should apply the brakes to price rises in the West, albeit the Tampa settlement may yet breach the $790pt cfr seen three years ago – a level still way below the record $1,625pt cfr registered in April 2022 amid the early fallout from the war in Ukraine.
A crucial factor will be whether ammonia producers in Europe curtail capacity on rising natgas costs, though no major uptick in demand has yet been seen at leading import hubs across the continent.
With many market players in the West waiting for the Tampa settlement before kicking off talks over their next purchases, spot business is likely to be brisk next week, especially given the war in the Middle East shows little sign of de-escalating.
Indian buyers are likely to have to dig deep into their pockets to secure tonnes, with one spot buyer on the west coast – an area heavily reliant on Middle East material – receiving around 11,000t this week at a significant premium to last done.
China Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Briefing – March 30, 2026
❤ Urea: The domestic urea market experienced moderate fluctuations last week. Policies aimed at stabilizing prices and controlling fertilizer exports have created a two-way balance between market supply and demand. The demand for spring fertilizer for agriculture is gradually coming to an end, while industrial demand provides effective support. Companies have continued to steadily clear their inventories. Despite the interplay of various factors, the market has maintained a relatively stable trend with minor fluctuations. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with minor adjustments occurring in certain areas.
❤Melamine: The domestic melamine market performed strongly last week. Due to the prolonged international conflict, companies primarily focused on delivering concentrated shipments for export orders, leading to a tight supply of domestic spot market products. Against this backdrop of persistent supply constraints, companies may continue to push prices upward, but attention must also be paid to the acceptance levels of downstream users. Some end-user companies, facing high-priced raw materials, have been forced to halt production.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market experienced mixed trends last week. Due to maintenance issues in the north, prices initially fell but later rebounded. Sales improved. While some ammonia producers in the south had low inventories, strong downstream demand and continuous port congestion helped sustain the market for a short period. It is expected that the synthetic ammonia market will remain stable in the short term.
❤Ammonium chloride: The atmosphere for discussions about the domestic market for ammonium chloride last week had somewhat cooled, but transactions remained satisfactory. Fertilizer manufacturers still needed to replenish their stocks, yet most traders were actively selling their products. The market saw an increase in low-level supplies, and most soda ash enterprises maintained strong pricing but generally received moderate orders. Prior to implementation, the focus was on forward shipments. The short-term supply and demand situation remained relatively stable, and the price of ammonium chloride continued to remain high.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The domestic market for ammonium sulfate continued to rise last week. Suppliers did not face any pressure to sell, and there was a strong desire to maintain prices. As prices continued to rise, high-end transactions by end-users were weak, limiting the extent of the increase. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly be characterized by price support and cautious observation.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate fertilizer saw a steady trend last week. Raw material sulfur prices continued to rise, while sulfuric acid prices remained strong and steady. Despite ongoing pressure on costs, policy factors have hindered price increases. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term.
Last week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained a strong trend. Raw material prices remained high, and the cost support increased further. Demand followed slowly, and downstream operations generally maintained a rhythm of purchasing only as needed. Prices remained firm, and the market is expected to continue its consolidation trend in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for potassium chloride experienced a slight downward trend last week. The country continues to ensure supply and release goods. Downstream factories have ample stockpiles of raw materials, and external procurement volumes are relatively limited. As a result, market inquiries have been sluggish, and overall prices have declined. The market price of sulfuric acid potassium fertilizer has risen, and the price of raw material sulfuric acid has increased significantly, putting considerable pressure on sulfuric acid potassium fertilizer manufacturers.
❤Compound Fertilizer: The domestic compound fertilizer market saw a gradual upward trend last week. As a reference, the mainstream 45% S (3*15) fertilizer sold at factories ranged from 3,250 to 3,450 yuan/ton. However, under the influence of policies, some raw material trends have stabilized temporarily, providing some relief to the pressure on compound fertilizer costs. Nevertheless, companies are still holding prices steady to fulfill earlier orders, and the compound fertilizer market will continue to stabilize in the short term.
Latest update on March 30: The base price for sulfur sales at a refinery in Dalian is 6,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous price. The bidding quantity is 6,300 tons, with delivery dates from May 22 to May 27, 2026. (The previous base price was 5,610 yuan/ton, with a transaction price of 5,668 yuan/ton.)
Industry China Morning Report: (20260330)
Phosphorus Ore: The phosphorus ore market continues its firm trend. In the major southern production areas, supply pressure has eased as companies that previously suspended operations are gradually resuming production. In the north, capacity release remains limited, and the tight supply-demand balance is stable. With low inventory levels, enterprises have a strong intention to support prices, making significant fluctuations unlikely in the short term. Future focus should remain on changes in the operating rates of downstream enterprises.
Agricultural MAP: Last week, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market underwent consolidation. Raw material sulfur prices continued to spike, and sulfuric acid rose firmly, leading to sustained cost pressure. However, influenced by policies, the upward price momentum was hindered, and the market is expected to maintain range-bound operations in the short term.
DAP: The domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market maintained a firm trend last week. Raw material prices continued to operate at high levels, further strengthening cost support. Demand is following up slowly, with downstream buyers mostly maintaining a purchase-as-needed rhythm. Prices remain firm, and the market is expected to continue its consolidation trend in the short term.
Industrial Grade MAP: Last week, the industrial grade MAP market continued to operate at high levels. The mainstream market average price for 73% industrial MAP was approximately 6,850 RMB/ton, with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Enterprises are facing production pressure due to raw material costs and are clearly supporting prices; supported by pending orders, factories face no immediate shipping pressure. Affected by high product prices, downstream procurement is primarily focused on small orders for immediate needs. The industrial MAP market will maintain high prices in the short term, with potential for further upside, depending on factory order policies and downstream demand.
Yellow Phosphorus: The yellow phosphorus market fell and then rose last week. Ex-factory acceptance prices in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan reached 24,700–25,000 RMB/ton. After several days of declining prices, yellow phosphorus enterprises utilized the recovery window of phosphoric acid demand to jointly support prices and withhold sales, raising quotes to 25,000 RMB/ton. Low-priced sources are difficult to find, and inquiry activity from downstream buyers and traders has increased, leading to a release in market transaction volume. It is expected that prices may continue to move upward this week; monitoring the sustainability of downstream procurement is suggested.
Phosphoric Acid: Last week, thermal process phosphoric acid prices continued to operate at high levels with improved transactions, mainly driven by rising sulfur and a rebound in yellow phosphorus which pushed up costs. For wet-process purified phosphoric acid, high sulfur prices drove up costs; downstream iron phosphate operating rates reached nearly 80%, showing prominent demand resilience. Combined with the strengthening of yellow phosphorus boosting market sentiment, wet-process purified phosphoric acid prices rose by 500–800 RMB/ton, with actual transactions gradually moving toward higher price points.
Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP): Last week, the domestic DCP market was firm and strong, moving upward within a narrow range due to strong cost support. Rising prices for sulfuric acid and sulfur pushed up production costs. Some enterprises suspended production due to raw material shortages, limiting industry operations; weekly output fell by 3.94%, and spot supply is tight. Currently, mainstream trade quotes in Yunnan are approximately 4,850 RMB/ton; Sichuan manufacturers' trade price is 4,900 RMB/ton (quotes currently suspended); the mainstream Hubei trade price is 5,150 RMB/ton. Yunnan MDCP mainstream prices are around 6,250 RMB/ton, and Guizhou MDCP around 6,300 RMB/ton. Yunnan MCP market price is around 6,650 RMB/ton, and Guizhou MCP around 6,750 RMB/ton.
Pesticides: Domestic herbicide prices rose generally, clearly driven by costs, with supply and demand remaining tight. The situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, increasing energy and logistics costs. Domestic spring plowing and peak overseas seasons have significantly boosted demand. Combined with environmental protection-related production limits and supply contraction, enterprises are controlling volumes to support prices, and market quotes are generally suspended. Currently, the spot market quote for Glyphosate 95% technical is 29,000–30,000 RMB/ton, Glufosinate market reference is near 48,500–49,000 RMB/ton, Nicosulfuron ex-factory quote is 165,000 RMB/ton (negotiable), Diquat market reference is 20,000 RMB/ton, Cyhalofop-butyl is at 112,000 RMB/ton, and the new ex-factory price for Pretilachlor is 35,000–36,000 RMB/ton.
Sulfur: Last Friday, domestic imported sulfur spot transaction prices rose significantly. The reference price for granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 5,850 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.84%. The sulfur market continued its upward trend, with traders showing a strong willingness to withhold sales and support prices. The liquid sulfur market in Shandong fluctuated upward, with the transaction center continuing to move higher and an active bidding sentiment. Last Saturday, Shandong liquid sulfur market prices were 5,430–5,630 RMB/ton; the Northwest market transaction price was 5,150–5,340 RMB/ton. Sulfur market prices are expected to continue rising in the short term.
Sulfuric Acid: Last week, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose in multiple regions. Supply continues to tighten as acid plant maintenance is concentrated in March and April, leading to a significant drop in industry operating rates. Meanwhile, high and rising raw material sulfur prices have further pushed up production costs. Rigid demand support: the peak season for spring plowing fertilizer preparation is releasing concentrated demand for sulfuric acid. Last week, acid enterprises in East, Central, Northwest, South, and Southwest China significantly raised prices, with increases generally concentrated in the 50–400 RMB/ton range. In Hubei, the delivered price of 98% smelting acid is around 1,370–1,500 RMB/ton; in Yunnan, the delivered price is 1,360–1,500 RMB/ton.
Iron Phosphate: Anhydrous iron phosphate prices rose as the negotiation cycle for new April orders began. Manufacturers' intended quotes rose to 12,500–13,000 RMB/ton, with a heavy wait-and-see sentiment in the market and clear price maneuvering. During the week, affected by the significant rise in sulfur prices, wet-process phosphoric acid prices operated at high levels, industrial MAP prices remained firm, and ferrous sulfate prices also trended stronger. Overall raw material prices are facing a strong upward state, significantly increasing iron phosphate costs and weakening manufacturer profit recovery. On the demand side, LFP operating rates remain high and stable; energy storage demand continues to gain momentum while the power battery segment is stable. Strong expectations for April have influenced the rhythm of rigid procurement for upstream materials. In terms of operations, current raw material fluctuations have not significantly affected the overall operating rates of iron phosphate manufacturers, and market supply remains generally tight.
LFP: Last Friday, LFP market prices primarily moved upward. Driven by positive news, lithium carbonate spot prices continued to climb; iron phosphate prices consolidated. Overall, the LFP cost side is operating strongly. In the short term, LFP is expected to fluctuate according to raw material cost logic. Today, power-type LFP transaction prices are 56,300–62,000 RMB/ton, and energy storage-type LFP transaction prices are 54,200–58,500 RMB/ton.
Compound Fertilizer: Last week, the domestic compound fertilizer market consolidated upward at high levels, with the mainstream ex-factory price for 45%S (3*15) at 3,250–3,450 RMB/ton. Although some raw material trends stabilized under policy guidance, slightly easing cost pressure, enterprises are still supporting prices to fulfill early orders. The market will continue to consolidate in the short term.
Synthetic Ammonia: Last week, the synthetic ammonia market showed a mixed trend. The North saw compensatory rises at low levels due to maintenance-related malfunctions and improved transactions. Some ammonia enterprises in the South have low inventory, but downstream demand is robust and sustained by port collection, leading to short-term price support. The market is expected to run stably in the short term.
Monopotassium Phosphate (MKP): Downstream demand for MKP is lukewarm, but rising raw material phosphoric acid prices have increased cost pressure. Enterprise quotes have moved upward, with ex-factory reference quotes at 9,500–9,800 RMB/ton. Actual transactions require flexible negotiation based on order size.
Ferrous Sulfate: Guangxi Youcan New Materials Co., Ltd. ex-factory price for heptahydrate ferrous sulfate is 660 RMB/ton (negotiable). Panzhihua Haifengxin heptahydrate ferrous sulfate ex-factory quote is 600 RMB/ton (negotiable). <This message was edited>
All Iranian Ammonia-Urea unit resumed the production with full capacity.
The National Petrochemical Company of Iran has authorized export permits for all Iranian producers.
@everyone Dear leaders:
Recently, there have been instances of fertilizer hoarding and early shipment to ports, which have impacted the expectations within the domestic fertilizer market. To ensure the domestic demand for fertilizers during the spring planting season, domestic urea stockpiles are insufficient, and prices are not expected to decrease. Self-regulating exports will not be arranged until the domestic urea stock is adequate and prices stabilize. Pre-arranged shipments to ports will not be exported under any circumstances.
https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/chemicals/chemical-fertilizers/io/fertilizer-2026-2028
Potash supply disruptions spared from Middle East conflict…for now
Profercy published its latest monthly potash report on Tuesday 24 March. The key takeaway from the March report is that unlike many other fertilizers, potash prices are not surging on the back of the Middle East conflict.
The comparatively muted potash price reaction is down to the fact that potash (MOP) supply has not been directly impacted by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. No notable MOP trade passes through the Strait. And there have been no reports so far of disruptions to production or exports from key regional producers in Jordan and Israel.
However, ICL’s Rotem phosphates operations in Israel were targeted by an Iranian missile this week. Although the company noted that there has been no slowdown in production and that operations continue as usual, the incident nevertheless highlights the risk to supply of phosphates and potash from Israel.
It is important to note that there are secondary impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on the global potash market. First and foremost, freight costs (with the exception of those from the Baltic Sea) are rising, adding upwards pressure to delivered prices in key global spot markets. Cargoes typically exported from Red Sea ports to Asian markets may once again be diverted to Mediterranean ports in the case of Israel, or via the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope in the case of Jordan.
A further escalation of the conflict would represent a risk to supply from Jordan and Israel, which together are estimated by Profercy to have accounted for roughly 10% of global MOP exports in 2025.
Profercy’s potash import price index has seen only minor increases over the past month, driven primarily by firm market sentiment and good affordability relative to other nutrients. The latest index from 24 March of $365.67pt is up less than $4pt since the start of 2026.
In comparison, potash prices in the two months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 surged $143pt to levels which are over $500pt above current values.
For now, potash supply in the Middle East is persisting at steady rates. Still, it is worth tracking Profercy’s potash price index closely the longer the conflict drags on given the clear risks to regional production and exports along with rising costs and secondary impacts.
[Urea] On March 27, the industry produced 217,300 tons of urea per day, maintaining the same level as the previous working day; this represents an increase of 23,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The current utilization rate is 92.28%, up by 6.27% from 86.01% last year.
Ammonium sulfate:
Supported by strong domestic market prices, rising international urea prices, and an increase in export inquiries, the price of caesium-based ammonium sulfate continued to rise this week. Some raw material suppliers also plan to conduct maintenance in April, which will result in a decrease in overall production.
Export inquiries have also increased from markets in Southeast Asia (such as Thailand and the Philippines), as well as from Central America and Türkiye.
The southern producer, Tianchen of Fujian, concluded a tender on March 25, selling 8,000 tons of standard-grade ammonium sulfate at a factory price of 1,730 to 1,735 yuan per ton, equivalent to 262 USD per ton CIF. The delivery period was before April 25.
The Southern producer, Shen Yuan, concluded a tender on March 26, selling a total of 46,000 tons of standard hexane-grade ammonium sulfate at an average weighted price of USD 272 per ton CIF for delivery between April 16 and 30.
Some suppliers have also quoted higher prices of USD 280 per ton CIF for standard-grade ammonium sulfate, although no deals have been concluded yet.
The price of caustic-grade ammonium sulfate has also been supported by rising raw material costs, while traders are purchasing large quantities of the product to maintain their market position.
~ As the China Inspection and Quarantine Bureau may have halted exports of urea and other nitrogen-based products like ammonium chloride, buyers may shift towards importing more ammonium sulfate in the coming weeks.
https://english.nv.ua/amp/uavs-strike-major-cherepovets-factory-50595327.html
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Friday, 27 March 2026
Markets remain in a tight supply-driven rally, with global urea values continuing to advance amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East and constrained availability across key export regions. North African prices have surged toward $800 fob while Baltic and Black Sea values have also moved higher, narrowing regional differentials. Nola values firmed through the week toward $700/st, although still lagging offshore replacement costs. With India yet to re-enter the market, sentiment remains highly sensitive, as any return could significantly intensify competition for limited supply.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 747.5 (+37.5)
– Apr: $730 / $780 ↑
– May: $740 / $790 ↑
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 780 (+62.5)
– Apr: $750 / $800 ↑
– May: $750 / $800 ↑
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 730 (+32.5)
– Apr: $740 / $750 ↑
– May: $740 / $760 →
– June: $650 / $730 →
– July: $650 / $740 →
– Aug: $650 / $740 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 295 (+19.5)
– Apr: $270 / $300 →
– May: $260 / $300 →
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 855 (+25)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $890 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 625 / 640 →
– Apr: 675 / 685 →
– May: 650 / 670 →
– June: 590 / 600 →
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Apr: 680 / 690 →
– May: 640 / 660 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 395 / 410 →
– Apr: 485 / 495 →
– May: 485 / 495 →
Morning. Nola urea paper dominated activity y'day as values firmed up – April traded to $695 (+$15), May $685, while Jun reached $640 (+$45) before buying stalled. On Int'l mkts, phys sales in Egypt reported $800 (+$35), while paper saw April Brazil trade $15 up from day prior. Mkts framed:
AG
Apr $730//$755
May $725//$750
Cfr Brazil
Apr $740//$749 – traded $745s
May $715//$740
Jun $675//$725
Egypt
Phys sales reported $800 – Apr ship't
Apr $775//$820
Nola
Phys: Prompt traded $700, Fh Apr $695, Apr $695
Paper:
Apr $690//$698 – traded $685, $695
May $670//$685 – traded $680, $685
Jun $620//$635 – traded $640,$630, $635
UAN Nola
Apr $480//$515
May $485//$510
DAP Nola
Paper:
Mar $658//$663
Apr $690//$700 – traded $690
Phys: Mar MAP traded $750. Fh Apr TSP $610
MAP Brazil
Apr $890//$920
Global urea values have established new highs in the latest price rally.
In the USA, Nola barge prices surpassed $700ps ton fob for loaded product, matching the highs seen in second half 2022. The latest levels are some $237ps ton above average values prior to the conflict in the Middle East, basis Profercy data.
In North Africa, granular urea values have hit $800pt fob and above with up to 32,000t sold today by three producers. Competition for product has intensified with buyers in the east seeking product from non-traditional suppliers.
Australian inquiry has been evident through the week with distributors seeking alternatives to the Middle East amid tight supply in SE Asia. Product has been sought in Nigeria and North Africa with some business concluded despite logistics challenges.
The last time a significant cargo was supplied from Africa to Australia was in 2002 when 68,000t were received.
While those with time on their side are sitting back, those unable to are again facing higher offers. Beyond the Middle East, supply disruption continues to be noted in Russia, while gas diversions have led to some modest production cutbacks in Algeria.
-UREA PRICES ARE GOING UP ACROSS THE BOARD, ALTHOUGH BUYER RESISTANCE IS STARTING TO TAKE HOLD IN CERTAIN MARKETS. EGYPT BROKE THE USD 800 PMT FOB BARRIER THIS WEEK.
-PHOSPHATE PRICES RELATIVELY STABLE THIS WEEK AFTER TWO WEEKS OF STEEP INCREASES
-CFR POTASH PRICES ARE GOING UP ON THE BACK OF INCREASED FREIGHT RATES
-AMMONIA PRICES KEEP GOING UP WITH THE CLOSURE OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, PREVENTING EXPORTS – INDIA IS REPORTED TO HAVE PAID USD 730 PMT CFR. CHINESE AMMONIA EXPORTS ARE INCREASING.
UREA
The urea market is struggling in some regions amid buyer resistance, while in others, pricing is rising, with Egypt leading the way with a sale at USD 800 PMT FOB. Abu Qir sold 5,000 t of granular urea at $800/t FOB for April loading, while MOPCO sold 7,000 t of granular urea at the same level, also for April loading, the producers said on 26 March. The sales mark a $35/t increase from the last done.
Earlier in the week, Abu Qir sold 5,000 t of granular at $765/t FOB for an April shipment. Prior to that, Helwan Fertilizers Company (HFC) sold 5,000 t of granular at $760/t FOB, also for the April movement. Prior business on 23 March saw MOPCO sell 5,000 t granular at the same price for April movement from North Africa, with that sale up $40/t on activity the prior week.
The market index was pegged at $710-720/t FOB on 19 March, following sales by MOPCO and later by HFC within this range.
Iranian urea producers are still not operating. Algerian urea producers are facing gas curtailment. Bintulu, Malaysia, will be down for 45 days starting on April 18th for maintenance. Chinese urea is still being held in the country, with no signs of exports emerging.
The countries and traders showing resistance have a sneaking suspicion that if the Hormuz Strait opens, the market could be flooded with urea priced at pre-war levels, and prices will dive. Reflecting this is the rumoured sale of 6 KT BFI Brunei granular urea at USD 723 PMT FOB, which is a palatable price in the intra-Asia region.
The Australian market is struggling on three fronts: gaining access to fully loaded ships stuck in the Middle East and finding opportunities elsewhere to replace these cargoes for the upcoming planting season on the east coast. The last is that diesel pumps are empty in many petrol stations, preventing the movement of goods. Fertilizer Australia, representing the industry, has warned in a news release that all parties concerned need to prepare for a continued difficult planting season. Indicative prices are now rumoured to have surpassed AUD 1,400 ex-warehouse in bulk, up from AUD 800 just a few weeks ago.
Authorities in India continue to meet regularly amid ongoing urea supply concerns arising from LNG feedstock disruption and delayed shipments under prior import tenders. Meetings were expected to take place today and into tomorrow. As before, the Department of Fertilizers established a Fertilizer Task Force to identify supply sources and assess procurement strategies. Multiple market reports suggest there have been moves to assess available offshore supply, with approaches still being made to foreign producers regarding direct business. The status of several shipments from the Middle East under the earlier Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) tender is uncertain, although reports suggest shipping extensions may be granted.
For the time being, there have been no firm reports of authorities' intent to issue a new import tender, but the situation is fluid. Nevertheless, most regular participants in such inquiries maintain that India will need to step in for shipments from April onwards. Amid a wider gas crisis, authorities are also understood to have been focusing on LNG procurement.
In South Korea, a 6,000t lot of granular urea has been sold to a major importer at close to $760pt cfr.
The April cargo is likely to be supplied from Brunei or Malaysia by an earlier position, from an eastern trader linked to the business. The buyer is understood to have entered the market to source material due to the absence of Middle Eastern contract cargoes. As noted last week, small volumes of bagged prilled urea from Vietnam were being lined up for industrial use at higher levels.
Brazil bid interest firmed up yesterday for small lots of granular urea with one 5-6,000t lot reportedly placed at $740pt cfr into a major port from an inbound vessel.
As previously reported, while many buyers are on the sidelines, demand for small lots has been evident, supporting a recent uptick in values. Latest sales prices are some $40pt above those last week.
USA loaded and March barge values held steady in trade yesterday. Loaded business was concluded several times at $680ps ton fob Nola, with March and the first half of April business at $678ps ton fob.
In summary, the urea market is exceptionally volatile, and being too aggressive on either side of the trade could lead to unpleasant experiences. Extreme caution is the order of the day, and indeed, the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the outlook for the urea industry.
PHOSPHATES
Key DAP/MAP price benchmarks across the globe were relatively stable this week following two weeks of steep increases, as activity was limited in most key markets. Still, further increases are expected over the coming weeks due to exceptionally tight availability and high raw materials costs. One market that saw price increases across its DAP and MAP benchmarks this week was the US. Prices for DAP, MAP, and TSP barges at New Orleans were assessed higher this week based on the latest indications, with other US assessments also increasing.
Despite price increases over the past two weeks, US prices remain exceptionally low when compared with other key global phosphates benchmarks, and substantial further price increases will be necessary if importers hope to secure supply over the coming weeks and months. As the majority of the US's DAP and MAP imports come from Saudi Arabia, which may have trouble exporting due to the conflict in the Middle East, some players are likely to be concerned about supply. Still, market participants are also concerned about the poor affordability of phosphates relative to downstream agricultural commodities, with demand destruction widely expected.
The December news that China will temporarily halt DAP, MAP, and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market and led suppliers to increase offers. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East makes an earlier return by Chinese exporters less likely, as domestic prices are kept higher by high raw material costs and by threats to supply from key origin Saudi Arabia, further increasing costs and reducing the supply of raw materials for producers across the globe. Spot prices for DAP sales to India were assessed steady at $790-$805/t CFR. India's importers remain absent from the market, unwilling to commit without clear guidance from the Department of Fertilizers (DoF) on the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) framework. Prices are likely to rise quickly once importers become active, as they will urgently need to secure volumes to avoid shortages during the Kharif application window. Spot prices for MAP to Brazil were assessed higher again this week despite a lack of liquidity. Prices reached $840-860/t CFR, up from $820-850/t, a 34% increase of $215/t year to date, and the highest level since August 2022. No new sales were confirmed this week. Offers were as high as $910/t CFR, but these levels drew no interest from buyers.
Affordability concerns are mounting, particularly as credit access issues persist. Most sources reported a total lack of liquidity, with buyers showing no interest at current offer levels despite limited product availability. The global shortage has increased OCP's pricing power in Morocco and helped the producer grow TSP sales, as buyers face limited supply options.
Prices were already expected to climb even higher than 2025's peaks, given China's severe export restrictions. The conflict in the Middle East is set to tighten the market further and push prices even higher over the coming weeks and months, with the impact on sulphur prices also adding pressure on phosphates upwards.
POTASH
Potash markets in key regions such as Brazil and Southeast Asia strengthened on the back of rising freight costs. These markets are seeing the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted global energy and fertilizer markets. Now in its fourth week, ceasefire talks are underway, but no resolution has been reached at the time of writing.
Brazilian MOP prices rose for the fourth consecutive week, reaching $385–395/t CFR as suppliers maintained firm offer levels. Russian suppliers have sold 30,000–50,000t weekly at current price levels, while Belarusian volumes for April are already sold out at $395/t CFR. Buying activity remains flat, with farmers monitoring prices closely, though imports continue to rise by 9% year to date, with growing concentration from CIS origins.
Standard MOP prices in Southeast Asia broke a weeks-long stagnation, rising to $375–390/t CFR, driven by higher fuel and logistical costs linked to Middle East tensions. In Malaysia, sMOP has edged up to $375–390/t CFR amid increased demand, as soaring palm oil prices have improved MOP affordability. Thailand’s gMOP inventories are expected to last only until the end of April, and prices are expected to rise further as freight and fuel costs remain elevated, a source said. Three deals have been reported over the last three weeks, indicating that buyers are building a reserve to insulate themselves from further price increases.
MOP prices in most regions face downside risk, as farmers may trim budgets and prefer to buy urea and phosphates amid rising prices driven by Middle East tensions.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia benchmarks pushed higher again this week as the Middle East conflict entered its fourth week with no resolution in sight. The most striking price signal came from India, where a confirmed transaction at $730/t CFR – involving Gas Ammon discharging across Sikka, Dahej, and JNPT for GSFC and Deepak Fertilizers – anchored a sharp upward revision to the Indian assessment. That level represents a gain of roughly $220/t from where the market stood in late February, and forward ideas are already being heard at $ 750-800/t CFR. In North Africa, Algerian offer levels are reported as high as $775/t FOB, though no fresh business has been confirmed above last week's Sorfert sale at $702.5/t FOB. Natural gas curtailments, understood to be in place at least until month-end, add a further layer of supply uncertainty to a region that has become increasingly important to Northwest European buyers. NW European delivered values edged higher, with offers now heard at $800/t CFR and above, though no fresh trades have been confirmed at those levels. Oman remains the only viable Middle Eastern export outlet, with transit through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily constrained.
China is increasingly stepping into the gap. Henan Energy's Vast Ocean delivered Lianyungang-sourced tonnes into Ulsan this week, and Formosa's latest Taiwan, China tender is understood to have been awarded with Chinese material for end-April delivery at around $650/t CFR, up sharply from the $510-560/t CFR cited only a week ago. Ammonia remains exempt from China's broader fertilizer export restrictions, and with global prices at current levels, the economics of seaborne exports are becoming increasingly compelling for Chinese suppliers. Southeast Asia continues to tighten, with offer levels moving higher as stronger demand from India and East Asia absorbs available prompt supply.
Scheduled maintenance at both Petronas in Malaysia and PAU in Indonesia will reduce regional flexibility further in Q2, while Yara's plans for a two-month Pilbara shutdown is likely to remove a key non-Gulf supply source, particularly affecting Taiwan and China, which sourced roughly 19% of 2025 imports from Australia.
India's market remains under acute pressure. The $730/t CFR transaction confirmed this week marks a significant step up, and importers are actively exploring Chinese-origin parcels as they search for workable alternatives. DAP and NP/NPK producers are expected to restart from mid-to-late April, and the prospect of recovering industrial demand colliding with still-constrained supply is keeping upward pressure firmly in place. In the US Gulf, Woodside formally assumed control of the Beaumont New Ammonia plant on 26 March following a handover from OCI Global, and the company is now advancing offtake agreements at prevailing market prices. Market speculation over the next Tampa contract builds, with initial suggestions between $700-750/t CFR, reflecting the broader firming in global benchmarks.
Global ammonia benchmarks are expected to maintain their upward trajectory as the Hormuz closure drags into another week, with fresh supply constraints emerging in Southeast Asia and Australia adding to an already tight global picture