Heading into the long Easter weekend, international markets closed stable to firm. Market participants continue to assess the changing macro landscape and potential next move out of India. Nola urea prices firmed, climbing back into the upper $690’s for loaded and prompt barges following the recent run in the oil market. The phosphates market is also beginning to firm as buyers step in to secure volumes for April and May.
AG
Apr $745//$785
May $715//$740
Cfr Brazil
Apr $745//$780
May $715//$740
Jun $675//$725
Egypt
Apr $815//$875
Nola
Phys: Fh May $680
Paper:
Apr $680//$690
May $670//$685
Jun $620//$635
UAN Nola
Apr $500//$525
May $485//$525
DAP Nola
Paper:
Apr $700//$710 – traded $707
May $695//$715
June $650//$700
MAP Brazil*
Apr $890//$930
AG weekly index = $800, Apr Avg = $800.00
Cfr Brazil weekly index = $765, Apr Avg = $765.00
Egypt weekly index = $820, Apr Avg = $820.00
Brazil Amsul weekly index = $297.50, Apr Avg = $297.50
UAN Nola weekly index = $480, Apr Avg = $480
DAP Nola weekly index = 696.50, Apr Avg = $696.50
MAP Brazil weekly index $865, Apr Avg = $865.00
Good day!
Market updates are given below
Have a good weekend!
■ Brazil phosphates
MAP has continued appreciating in the country this week. Russian and Moroccan MAP 12:52/11:52 have reportedly been traded at $860/t CFR Brazil and $900/t CFR Brazil respectively. Reminder: some deals for MAP 11:52/12:52 were concluded at $850—860/t CFR Brazil last week. OCP is currently offering its product at over $900/t CFR Brazil, according to market players. Quotes for SSP (19% P2O5 content) and SSP (20% P2O5 content) have been heard at $330—350/t CFR Brazil and $380—390/t CFR Brazil respectively. The latter fertilizer produced in Israel has been available at $400/t CFR Brazil. Reminder: SSP (19% P2O5 content) and SSP (20% P2O5 content) were up for sale at $300—330/t CFR Brazil and $360—380/t CFR Brazil, respectively, last week. Considering all the above, WFM has changed the weekly MAP price assessment from $850—860/t CFR Brazil to $860—900/t CFR Brazil.
■ Argentina phosphates
Traders have reportedly left MAP 11:52 offers unrevised at $860—900/t CFR Argentina this week. DAP has been available for purchase at $840—850/t CFR Argentina.
■ Egypt urea
Trade in Egyptian urea was dull in the global market late last week and early this week. After MOPCO and Abu Qir had sold a total of 12,000 t of granular urea at $800/t FOB Egypt for April loading on 26 March, local companies started asking around $820/t FOB Egypt for the granular fertilizer. The ongoing application season in Europe, however, coupled with increased regional demand for urea and continued volatility in the global fertilizer market, has supported further price growth, enabling Egyptian producers to secure higher prices for their urea. Thus, on 31 March, HFC traded 8,000 t of the May-dispatched granular variety at $820/t FOB Egypt. Nothing has been heard of quotes for Egyptian prilled urea this week. Note: it was on offer at $750/t FOB Egypt for April loading last one. Netbacks from offer prices for the granular fertilizer have been yielding some $715/t FOB Egypt and $752—802/t FOB Egypt in Ireland and Italy, respectively, this week. With enough gas supplies as feedstock on hands, Egyptian producers have continued making urea at full capacity. In 30 days of March, Egyptian suppliers exported 202,570 t of urea from Damietta, which is 19% less than they did in February. The cargoes shipped to Europe and Turkiye.
-THE AGGRESSIVE INCREASES IN UREA PRICES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ABATING DUE TO INCREASED EXPORTS OF IRANIAN UREA
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE GOING UP DUE TO LIMITED SUPPLY, WITH MAP PRICES IN BRAZIL LEADING THE WAY
-POTASH PRICES ARE GOING UP ON A DELIVERED BASIS DUE TO INCREASED FREIGHT RATES
-GLOBAL AMMONIA PRICES ARE GOING UP DUE TO THE 5TH WEEKLONG CONTINUED CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
UREA
The global urea market’s recent run of strong price gains appeared to slow this week, as a reversal of Iran’s export ban and a softening US market contrasted with new multi-year highs in sales from African producers. Buyers in some regions stepped back to assess whether purchases remain viable at current levels, while the supply situation remained tight across all regions.
In a significant reversal, Iran’s nitrogen production resumed this week, and its National Petrochemical Company (NPC) authorized the export of urea and ammonia, lifting the ban imposed two weeks ago. A first sale of 60,000 t granular was reported from Pardis at $631/t FOB for shipment to Turkey, with shipments to Myanmar also reported. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed to shipping, and while producers in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE are loading vessels to manage inventories, only Oman remains an active exporter. Omani price ideas were cited at $820-830/t FOB this week, reflecting delivered prices paid in Australia.
The supply situation in India remains difficult. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) has extended the shipment deadline for its February tender to 30 April, providing some relief for suppliers. Around 800,000 t from non-Middle Eastern sources is now expected to be delivered. However, with domestic production down 25% in March, the country’s need for imports is growing, and sources suggest any new tender from IPL would still likely see lowest prices (L1s) emerge above $800/t CFR.
Prices should hold firm with the emergence of a fresh purchase tender from India likely to facilitate a new round of increases later in April.
PHOSPHATES
Phosphate supply concerns intensified this week amid already exceptionally tight availability and high raw materials costs. Still, overall spot market and activity and price movements were limited, with MAP remaining firmer and more active than DAP.
Morocco's OCP said this week it is bringing forward its maintenance schedule and expects a reduction of up to 30% in output for the second quarter of 2026, with some plants beginning maintenance next week. Though the company has not confirmed, concerns over supply of raw material sulphur are likely a key driver for the move, as a large share of sulphur supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any reduction in output threatens to further tighten what is already an exceptionally tight global market for phosphates.
The December news that China will temporarily halt DAP, MAP and NP exports until August had already emboldened bulls in the market by creating a tight supply outlook, with the country last month widening export restrictions to include other fertilizers such as SSP and TSP. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East makes an earlier return by Chinese exporters less likely, as domestic prices are kept higher by high raw materials costs, as well as threatening supply from key origin Saudi Arabia, which has historically moved all phosphates exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and further increasing costs and reducing supply of raw materials for producers across the globe.
Drone strikes late last week at Cherepovets, the site PhosAgro's largest phosphate fertilizer production facility, also caused further concerns over supply. Market sources indicated that the supply on phosphate production was limited, though details have yet to be confirmed. As Morocco, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia are the four largest global suppliers of traded phosphate fertilizers, accounting for around 75-80% between them, supply options have narrowed considerably.
Still, there were few new spot deals for DAP or MAP reported across the globe over the past two weeks, as many buyers hold out for a miracle given exceptionally poor affordability relative to downstream agricultural commodities. MAP has been the firmer and more active of the two commodities so far this year, and a range of MAP benchmarks firmed further this week.
MAP prices to Brazil were assessed up at $870-880/t CFR from $840-860/t, up 38% or $240/t year to date, and representing the highest level since early August 2022. Overall liquidity remains limited, with buyers showing little interest at current offer levels despite a lack of product availability. US prices also increased further this week amid limited activity, though they remain exceptionally low when compared with other key global phosphates benchmarks.
Prices were already expected to climb even higher than 2025's peaks, given China's severe export restrictions. The conflict in the Middle East is set to tighten the market further and push prices even higher over the coming weeks and months, with the impact on sulfur prices also adding pressure on phosphates upwards.
POTASH
Global MOP markets are broadly firming heading into the second quarter, underpinned by escalating Middle East tensions and rising freight costs. Average freight rates have risen significantly in recent weeks across the Vancouver, Baltic, and Red Sea corridors.
China remains the key outlier, with domestic prices declining for a second consecutive week on import stockpiles and subdued downstream demand. India's unresolved contract settlement remains the critical variable for global benchmark pricing.
Brazilian MOP prices rose for the fifth consecutive week, reaching $390-400/t CFR this week, up from $385–395/t CFR last week, amid higher offers and an uptick in demand. Offers have already surpassed the $400/t CFR mark, a level that was previously not expected until midyear. Demand picked up noticeably as MOP remains more affordable than other nutrients in Brazil, with distributors and farmers securing volumes in anticipation of further price increases.
Standard MOP prices in Southeast Asia stabilized this week after breaking through weeks of stagnation and rising to $375–390/t CFR last week, driven by higher fuel and logistical costs linked to Middle East tensions. Freight rates to Southeast Asia have risen over 31% in five weeks across the Vancouver, Baltic, and Red Sea corridors.
India's potash contract negotiations remain unsettled, with Indian Potash Limited (IPL) holding off discussions until global conditions soften and the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) rates for Kharif 2026 are announced. Suppliers are demanding a $20–25/t increase from the current $349/t CFR benchmark, citing volatile commodity markets and Middle East freight pressures, while IPL continues to push for a rollover. The NBS announcement, expected soon, will determine India's capacity to absorb higher landed costs, if the subsidy holds at INR2.38/kg for K, importers face margin compression at any settlement above $355/t CFR.
Chinese MOP process declined for the second week in a row as increased supply and subdued demand weighed on the market. Approximately 2.06 Mt of MOP was released directly from major importers and domestic producers to end users at settled prices as of 31 March, according to the China Agricultural Means of Production Association. Total imports for January–February reached a record 3.07 Mt, up 30% year on year.
MOP prices in most regions face downside risk, as farmers may trim budgets and prefer to buy urea and phosphates amid rising prices driven by Middle East tensions.
AMMONIA
Global ammonia benchmarks continued to move higher this week as the Strait of Hormuz closure entered its fifth week and a series of fresh supply developments compounded an already tight market.
The April Tampa settlement at $775/t CFR, up $160/t from March, provided a clear signal of how far the market has repriced since the conflict began. The March settlement, announced the day before hostilities started, now sits well below current levels across most regions. For Trinidadian imports into the US, a 10% tariff implies a theoretical duty-paid value of $852.50/t CFR for April cargoes.
A significant development was China's suspension of new ammonia export deals from 31 March, following pressure from domestic chemical producers over local supply security. Chinese tonnes had become one of the few reliable sources of prompt supply for India and East Asia in recent weeks, exports surged 649% year on year in January and February, and their removal tightens the global picture. Previously agreed cargoes are still expected to proceed, but no new business is understood to have been concluded. The suspension comes as domestic prices have also risen, narrowing the export incentive that had made Chinese seaborne sales so attractive in recent weeks. In India, the Department of Fertilizers is understood to have capped import prices at $700/t CFR, a level that now sits at or below the current market assessment of $700-750/t CFR, with forward indications already heard at $750-800/t CFR. The cap reflects government concerns over escalating subsidy costs, but leaves importers with limited room to secure material in the current market.
The supply picture east of Suez is thinning simultaneously. Yara's Pilbara plant has been offline for around two months; Petronas and PT ESSA are both heading into Q2 turnarounds; and Middle East exports outside Oman remain effectively shut. Consequently, spot values in East Asia have continued to firm, with indications reaching $630/t CFR into Taiwan, China and $650/t CFR into South Korea. In the US Gulf, GCA is understood to have restarted earlier this week, though the market remains cautious given the plant's track record. Woodside's Beaumont plant continues to run well and has completed its first export cargo, with Nutrien's Libramont carrying the material to OCP's Jorf Lasfar facility in Morocco.
Global ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain under upward pressure as the Hormuz closure extends into another week and the suspension of Chinese exports removes one of the few remaining sources of prompt non-Gulf supply
China Morning Briefing 2026-4-3
❤ Urea: The domestic urea market reported stable prices with minor fluctuations yesterday. The current situation of supply and demand imbalance is evident, with significant shortages in most regions, leading to increased premiums for spot products in the secondary market. However, considering the policy ceiling, manufacturers currently have no room for price increases, and most markets are expected to remain stable for the time being.
❤Melamine: Yesterday, the local market prices of melamine in China once again rose. Although the prices have reached a high level, it will take time for the increase to be transmitted. Currently, there is a strong resistance from users in the main middle and downstream segments. Some high-end sources have seen limited transactions. However, considering the situation comprehensively, some enterprises still have pending orders to support their operations, and the prices are likely to remain high.
❤Synthesis of Ammonia: The synthesis of ammonia market saw steady growth over the past day. There have been delays in the planned resumption of ammonia production facilities, as well as instances of ammonia producers switching to producing methanol or ceasing sales. The supply and demand environment is favorable, and the market’s inventory is relatively tight. However, current prices are high, and manufacturers are becoming more cautious in their purchases. Given the anticipated maintenance work for some ammonia production facilities, it is expected that the synthesis of ammonia market may continue to operate at a high level for the short term.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride experienced a period of consolidation yesterday. Associated alkali enterprises focused on executing orders, maintaining prices despite lack of inventory pressure. Conversely, the start-up rates of compound fertilizer enterprises are expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in the enthusiasm for purchasing ammonium chloride. However, some individual facilities have plans for maintenance in the later period. The fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed significantly, and it is anticipated that prices will remain stable for the time being.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The domestic market for ammonium sulfate was stable yesterday. Macro and fundamental positive factors continue to dominate, and factories are not under pressure to sell. Given the steady demand, it is expected that the market for ammonium sulfate will continue to experience a period of high volatility in the near term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for ammonium phosphate fertilizer remained stable yesterday. In Hubei, the 55% powder was priced at 4,050-4,100 yuan/ton. Recently, raw material prices have continued to rise, increasing costs and prompting some factories to reduce production. A few have even ceased operations. Supply has gradually decreased, and downstream entities continue to purchase only in small quantities as needed. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market operated steadily yesterday. Raw material prices remained high, with strong support from costs. Demand followed slowly, but downstream operations were generally cautious, maintaining a steady pace for essential purchases. Overall trading activity was relatively subdued, and the market is expected to remain in a high-level consolidation phase in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market trend yesterday was relatively subdued. Market traders reported relatively light sales. Supply guarantees were still being implemented slowly, but the volume of shipments had decreased compared to previous periods. Imported 62% white potassium was mostly priced between 3150-3480 yuan/ton. Sulfate potassium manufacturers continued their previous pricing, with some orders in progress of delivery and new orders progressing slowly.
❤Compound fertilizers: The overall performance of the domestic compound fertilizer market was stable yesterday. Upstream raw materials remained strong, providing continuous support to the cost of compound fertilizers. However, new orders in the middle and downstream segments were not very enthusiastic, leading to some stagnation in trading. It is expected that the short-term compound fertilizer market will primarily focus on fulfilling earlier orders, with the market experiencing a period of consolidation.
Hi guys. Please see the Nexus Market Report
Nexus Weekly Update
02/04/26
The market remains flat overall, with a softer undertone. Pacific activity has been limited, and while tonnage has reduced, rates have largely held steady. Australia has been quiet, but Nopac has seen better grain demand, particularly ex Vancouver for first half April dates. This has tightened prompt tonnage, with vessels being absorbed into these cargoes. While driven mainly by Panamax enquiry, there has been some spillover support into the supra/ultra segment. Bunkers in Nopac are not an issue, with reliable availability in Vancouver. Looking ahead, the balance shifts, with second half April and May positions expected to lengthen as more vessels ballast in from the Far East. In SE Asia / Far East, activity appears stronger on paper than in reality. A significant portion of enquiry is price testing rather than firm demand, with many cargoes failing to progress once rate ideas are known. As a result, underlying demand feels thinner, which could start to weigh on rates. More broadly, uncertainty around bunker prices and availability continues to limit activity, with most operators only covering when required.
There were fresh signs of market activity in the Indian Ocean this week as owners became accustomed to the new reality. This has especially been seen with the increase in Oman port calls, which are paying a premium and being used as a transhipment hub for cargo interests unable to access their usual ports within the Gulf. The bunker situation has also stabilised, with supply back online, removing part of the uncertainty that had been holding many back. Further south, increasing tonnage counts in South Africa are putting some downward pressure on rates in the area. Coal prices in Indonesia and Australia have been more attractive recently, hence the lack of demand for South African product. Sentiment in the area remains cautious, with all eyes on the Middle East and how the situation develops there.
The US Gulf started the week sluggishly, with little in the way of reported activity. However as it progressed some fresh demand surfaced for the larger ships and the prompt tonnage began to clear out. This spurt of enquiry could be down to charterers wanting a clean slate for after the upcoming holidays. The Supra’s have fared better than the Handies, where a bit of fixing and failing has taken place. For the handies to pick up we need to see a material increase in woodpellet demand, but it remains to be seen if this will happen after the holiday weekend.
In the South Atlantic, tonnage is beginning to build, although not at the same pace seen last week. Out of West Africa, several of the larger fronthaul tenders have been pushed back, reducing immediate demand. However, ECSA has seen a pickup in grain activity, absorbing a number of Panamaxes and also providing support to the supramax and ultramax segments. A number of operators are opting to use their own tonnage, as volatility in bunker prices continues to limit arbitrage opportunities. As a result, vessels with bunkers on board are achieving a premium. Bunker availability remains present in key Atlantic hubs such as Gibraltar, although prices have been firming over the course of the week. Looking ahead, grain volumes from ECSA are expected to increase, which should provide underlying support to the market.
Bunker markets continued to remain firm, with prices now around USD 880 pmt in Singapore, USD 850 in Fujairah and USD 760 in Gibraltar, reflecting ongoing disruption in Middle East supply. While availability remains manageable for now, particularly in Asia, this is largely supported by existing inventories, with limited replenishment entering the market. The situation remains fragile, and continued disruption is likely to tighten supply further and keep upward pressure on prices, with widening spreads between regions already influencing refuelling strategies.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven fertilizer prices sharply higher across Asia since late February, but the surge in input costs has yet to translate into corresponding gains for key crop prices, creating a delayed risk to farmer profitability and planting decisions for the coming season.
The disconnect between soaring fertilizer values and subdued crop markets reflects a lag effect that could tighten exportable surpluses and eventually push food prices higher, as farmers absorb higher costs or reduce plantings, said analysts.
Since late February, disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have sent nitrogen and phosphate prices soaring. Nitrogen fertilizer prices, in particular, have surged globally. Platts assessed FOB Middle East granular urea at $604-$710/mt on March 19, a sharp jump from $436-$494/mt on Feb. 26 before the conflict began. The Southeast Asia granular urea price was $750/mt FOB on March 19, up from $490-$498/mt pre-conflict. While still under upward pressure, it is below the highs of 2022, and this increase puts prices firmly above levels seen since 2023.
The phosphate market faces a similar squeeze. Platts CFR Thailand DAP prices rose to $850/mt as of March 19, compared to $764-$766/mt previously, as importers rushed to secure cargoes. This is driven by a nearly $200/mt jump in the price of Middle Eastern sulfur, a key raw material.
This price shock is a direct result of severe logistical disruptions that are tightening supply-demand balances and putting clear upward pressure on prices for key products like ammonia, urea, and ammoniated phosphates. Crucially, this also affects raw materials in these value chains, namely natural gas and sulphur.
Compounding this, China—an important urea and phosphate producer for the region—remains largely absent from export markets due to strict quota controls, effectively removing a key relief valve for the strained global market.
Amid the disruptions, offers for key fertilizers have become scarce, with available cargoes commanding steep premiums. While bids have risen to chase the limited supply, a sense of caution is emerging, and some buyers are choosing to delay procurement in the hope that prices will stabilize.
Crop prices lag behind soaring inputs
Despite the input cost inflation, the effect on crop markets has been uneven.
This is most evident in the rice sector, where Platts spot price assessments have declined steadily since September 2025 due to a global supply glut. The Long Grain White Rice 5% Broken FOB India price assessment averaged $343.95/mt in February 2026, down almost $54/mt (13.5%) from a year ago, based on Platts data and was assessed at almost $11/mt lower at $333/mt on March 19.
On a delivered basis, Platts' Long Grain Parboiled 5% STX CFR West Africa has gained only $20/mt to $408/mt since Feb. 19, a rise attributed mainly to higher freight costs.
In the wheat market, Thailand buyers have seen delivered prices of feed wheat rise 5%-13% ($15-$34/mt) since Feb. 28, based on Platts tender data. But, more striking is the tenor of those purchases: cargoes for shipment as far as February 2027, which multiple sources described as uncommon for such advanced buying.
However, for Australia, the region's key milling wheat exporter, the FOB Australia APW price assessment has gained just $4/mt since Feb. 27 to $263/mt on March 18, reflecting subdued demand.
"For Australia, the near-term wheat outlook remains relatively insulated given pre-purchased inputs," said Zinkovski Vladimir, Head of Crops at S&P Global Energy CERA. He cautions, however, that "sustained fertilizer and energy inflation—combined with rising El Niño risk—could curb yields and tighten exportable surpluses, while the current higher flat price environment may also trigger demand destruction."
Delayed impact
Fertilizer price shocks don't translate instantly into crop markets because of timing mismatches built into agricultural cycles.
This means the price shock will be most acutely felt by those now procuring inputs for upcoming plantings, where higher fertilizer prices could translate into lower yields and, eventually, higher crop prices.
In India, fertilizer availability appears comfortable, and supportive policies like the Minimum Support Price and urea subsidies reinforce farmer incentives to maintain plantings for the kharif season. "Given this, major reductions in kharif rice acreage seem unlikely," said Dipanshi Agarwal, principal analyst for APAC Crops at CERA.
However, this protection has a potential downside. Indian farmers have continued to purchase urea at a fixed price, shielding them from global shocks, but yield losses could be a risk if farmers rely solely on nitrogen fertilizer.
"India's reliance on imported diammonium phosphate, Muriate of Potash, and complex fertilizers remains a structural vulnerability," Agarwal said. "Any rise in global prices or supply disruptions could push farmers toward subsidized urea, worsening nutrient imbalance and risking yield losses."
Alberto Persona, director of Fertilizer Analytics and Sustainability at S&P Global Energy, adds that subsidy and farm support schemes were expanded significantly in many countries during recent global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
While these policies help, the pressure will eventually find an outlet. "Prolonged high prices inevitably end up being transferred on to consumers further down the value chain," says Persona, though he adds that "higher prices today do not necessarily imply a proportional increase in overall farm costs as farmers can adapt their application rates."
"Overall, the situation remains concerning, but it is also important not to overstate the magnitude, immediacy, and duration of the impact on everyone's livelihood – despite what some might say," Persona said
Good day – As ceasefire speculation persists and higher physical values are reported, mixed market sentiment has developed. Buyers for paper in AG ad Brazil have been more reluctant to chase the market higher. May AG traded down to $740 as trader longs looked to trim positions. This activity was also witnessed in Nola urea, as traders sold the Fh april physmarket lower, finding bid support in the $680’s. The increasingly challenging global political backdrop continues to keep the market on edge.
AG
Apr $745//$785
May $715//$745 – traded $740
Cfr Brazil
Apr $745//$790
May $725//$755
Jun $650//$715
Egypt
Apr $810//$870
Brazil Amsul
Apr $275//300
May $280//$295
Nola
Phys: Fh Apr $685, $683. Apr $690, $685
Paper:
Apr $680//$690
May $665//$680
Jun $615//$635
Apr/May spread traded $15
UAN Nola
Apr $500//$525
May $495//$525
DAP Nola
Apr $690//$695
May $683//$695
Jun $663//$690
Prices fca koper
Assuming the corn price changes proportionally with the urea price, we set up a simple ratio.
Initial situation (2025 april):
• Corn = 180 €
• Urea = 450 €
New situation:
• Urea = 800 €
• Corn = 320 €
Good morning,
this is our weekly update on Baltic levels:
$650-670 FOB pUrea, +$50-60 for automotive grade
$680-700 FOB gUrea,
$450-450 FOB AN,
$440-460 FOB UAN,
$400-490 FOB T16
Freight 30kt:
Baltic-1p Brazil – $45-50
Baltic-2p WC Mexico – $80-90
Baltic-2p EC Mexico – $50-55
50-60kt
Baltic-1p WC India – $55-65
SEA producers launch regional fertilizer association
State-owned Indonesian fertilizer producer Pupuk Indonesia, state-owned Malaysian fertilizer producer Petronas, and Bruneian fertilizer producer Brunei Fertilizer Industries (BFI) have announced the formation of the Southeast Asia Fertilizer Association at the Argus Asia Fertilizer Conference in Bali today.
The association aims to address regional fertilizer-related issues through a formal industry body and to present a more unified voice on market and policy developments. This includes strengthening food security in the region and to support low-carbon, sustainable agricultural production, said Rahmad Pribadi, chief executive of Pupuk Indonesia.
Southeast Asia faces mounting challenges in agriculture, including emissions linked to rice cultivation, which accounts for around 1pc of the global carbon dioxide emissions out-
China's has around 25mn t/yr of amsul capacity and exported just over 21mn t in 2025. Domestic caprolactam operating rates are currently at 80pct
China Morning Briefing 2026-4-2
❤ Urea: The domestic urea market remained strong yesterday. Although it was constrained by guidance prices, the price fluctuations of urea were limited. However, supplies in some regions were tight, and factories primarily focused on controlling quantities and collecting orders. Demand continues to exist, and low inventory levels, coupled with order support, have caused urea factories to maintain stable prices for the time being. Market conditions are adjusting gradually but remain stable.
❤Melamine: The upward trend in the domestic melamine market continued yesterday. Current prices remain high, and users in the midstream and downstream segments are relatively limited in their ability to accept these high prices, displaying strong resistance. The domestic spot market has shown a slowing trend in transactions. However, considering the orderly progress of current exports and the relatively concentrated orders awaiting enterprises, some individual companies still have the intention to drive up prices. It is expected that prices will remain strong at high levels, with some enterprises planning to make additional increases.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market continued to experience a slight price increase yesterday. This was due to the postponement of increases in production capacity by some ammonia-producing facilities undergoing maintenance. The market continued to respond positively, but current prices remain high. Manufacturers are becoming more cautious and are focusing on essential purchases. Given the expectation of a recovery in production volumes in the near future, it is anticipated that the synthetic ammonia market will remain stable.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride remained stable over the past day. Trading activity was generally subdued, with downstream manufacturers making necessary purchases while resisting high prices. Linear alkali enterprises currently prioritize shipments and maintain prices under pressure without any inventory constraints. The short-term supply and demand dynamics have not changed significantly, and it is expected that prices will continue to consolidate at a high level.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The domestic market for ammonium sulfate saw steady growth over the past day. Positive macroeconomic and fundamental factors continue to dominate, with a positive sentiment among participants in the coking auction. Prices are still expected to rise further. Given the supply-demand imbalance, it is anticipated that the market for ammonium sulfate will remain strong in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate saw a steady increase over the past day. The factory price of 55% powder in Hubei Province reached 4,050-4,100 yuan/ton, with some transactions taking place. Supplier enterprises continue to implement price stabilization measures. Recently, raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid have maintained high levels of operation, driving up costs continuously. Factory production capacity has shown a clear downward trend, and supply remains relatively tight. Some buying activity has emerged; if demand persists, the market’s focus may still shift upward.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market remained stable yesterday. Raw material prices remained high, and there was still strong support at the cost end. Companies continued to ship orders pending shipment. Local demand was slowly being released, and downstream entities mostly maintained their essential purchasing needs. In the short term, the market will continue to operate in a state of consolidation.
❤Potash fertilizer: The domestic market price of potash fertilizer has shown a slight downward trend. Chloride-based potash continues to be supplied and released, and the sources for downstream factories are relatively abundant. As a result, the market price of chloride-based potash has decreased, and there is still sentiment of pessimism. The pressure on sulfate-based potash manufacturers’ costs is evident, and most Mannheim-based enterprises remain in a situation of inverted sales.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic compound fertilizer market continued its narrow upward consolidation yesterday, with limited gains. Companies’ price adjustments were largely driven by cost factors. However, due to the slow release of essential demand and the inability of downstream high prices to sustain themselves, the market’s high price transmission has been sluggish. Keep an eye on changes in market sentiment; for the time being, compound fertilizers remain in a high-level consolidation phase.
China early information: (2026-4-2)
Synthetic Ammonia: Shandong 2590 + 30
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market continued to make a small recovery. Due to the delay in the increase of some ammonia inspection companies, the market continued its coordination increase, but at present prices remained high, manufacturers tended to operate cautiously, and mostly needed procurement. Considering the expectation of a resumption of increment in the near future, it is expected that the sethane ammonia industry will maintain a consolidated operation.
Urea: Linyi, Shandong 1900 + 0
Yesterday, the domestic urea market was firmly operating. Although the guideline price was limited, the fluctuation of urea prices was limited. Supply was tight in some regions, and factories controlled volumes to collect the orders mainly. Downstream demand is still maintained, low inventory and orders are supported, urea factories' tentative quotations are stable and waiting, and the market situation stabilizes and adjusts narrowly.
Compound fertilizer: Shandong 45% S 3420 + 20
Yesterday, the domestic composite fertilizer market continued to consolidate narrowly, with limited increases, and enterprises' price increases were mostly due to cost reasons, although due to the slow release of raw demand and the end of weak downstream high prices, the market's high price transmission was slow, and attention was paid to the change of mentality, shortly after the high level of composite chemical fertilizers.
Melamine: Shandong 9850 + 350
The rally in the domestic melamine market continued yesterday. The current price remains high, and in the face of high prices, the acceptance level of middle and downstream users is relatively limited. The resistance is evident, and the domestic spot market transaction has shown a slowing trend, but considering that the current export process is in an orderly manner, and the relative concentration of enterprises' unsold orders, a few enterprises still have the will to push up, and the price expectation is mostly firm, and there are no shortages of companies to make up for the increase.
Ammonium sulphate: Shandong 1750 + 10
The domestic ammonium sulphate market rose steadily yesterday. Macro and fundamental positive factors still predominate, coking auction sentiment is positive, and prices still recover. Ammonium sulfate market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term, despite contradictory supply and demand.
Ammonium Chloride: Shandong 660 + 0
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market operated steadily, the trading atmosphere was general, downstream manufacturers had a short-term need to buy, and they were resistant to the high level. Lian alkaloids are currently carrying out mostly unsold, and without inventory pressure, the short-term supply and demand pattern does not change much. It is expected that prices will continue to maintain the high level and consolidate. <This message was edited>
As of April 1, 2026, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises stood at 536,000 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons from the previous cycle, representing a decrease of 23.48% month-on-month. During this cycle, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline. Although agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand has persisted, supporting smooth urea shipments. Some urea factories have limited capacity and currently have no inventory. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Henan, Jiangxi, Qinghai. Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory: Anhui, Gansu, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Yunnan.
Good day – International markets remained range bound but firming – awaiting further news regarding the conflict in Iran, potential Indian tender and higher regional producer values. The US Nola urea market reached a new high with FH April Nola urea physical trading up to $701.
AG
Apr $755//$800
May $745//$785
Cfr Brazil
Apr $747//$790
May $725//$755
Jun $685//$725
Egypt
Apr $810//$850
Brazil Amsul
Apr $275//300
May $280//$293 – traded $285
Nola
Phys: Loaded $700. Fh Apr $700, 701,$695. Apr $697, $690. Fh May $698
Paper:
Apr $687//$695 – traded $700, $695, $690
May $665//$680
Jun $615//$635
UAN Nola
Apr $480//$515
May $485//$510
DAP Nola
Apr $690//$695
May $683//$695
Jun $663//$690