Potash fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic market price of potassium chloride continued to show a slight downward trend. Market traders had some available stock for sale, but the purchasing demand from downstream factories was not strong. The prices of sulfuric potash manufacturers remained high. The factory price of 52% powder from the Mannheim plant typically ranged from 4,200 to 4,300 yuan/ton, with new orders primarily negotiated individually.
Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate fertilizer saw a period of consolidation yesterday. Supplier companies implemented price stabilization policies, which had a slight impact on market sentiment. Trading fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of raw material sulfur rose sharply, and the price of sulfuric acid remained high. Costs continued to face pressure, and downstream industries maintained their essential purchasing needs. The signs of a decline in the operational capacity of monoammonium phosphate fertilizer plants will gradually become apparent.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to show strong performance yesterday. Raw material prices remained high, and costs continued to face pressure. While there was a strong desire to maintain prices, demand release was slow. Downstream operations maintained a rhythm of purchasing only as needed. In the short term, the market will remain in a state of consolidation.
China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Briefing (March 27, 2026).
Synthesis of Ammonia: Shandong 2408+23
The market for synthetic ammonia saw an improvement in trading activity yesterday. There were expectations that enterprises in the north that had experienced earlier disruptions would resume production. As a result, prices rose from their low levels, and the market maintained a strong desire to hold prices steady. In the southern region, driven by the sentiment of stockpiling, there was strong support from essential needs. Short-term operations remained stable at high levels, with many operators opting to observe and restructure, prioritizing active sales.
Urea: Shandong Linyi 1890+0
The domestic urea market’s reported prices from manufacturers yesterday generally showed a trend of stability with some weakness. In certain regions, some manufacturers exhibited signs of price flexibility. Recently, as the demand in the agricultural sector has continued to decline rapidly, the gap in end-market replenishment needs has gradually narrowed. Against this backdrop, traders, considering the uncertainty surrounding future market trends and their own inventory concerns, lacked the motivation to continuously follow suit.
Composite fertilizer: Shandong 45% S 3380 +0
The domestic compound fertilizer market remained stable at a high level yesterday. Upstream raw materials were consolidating at elevated levels, and the details of policy adjustments were unclear. The market largely focused on observing and absorbing earlier orders. Currently, market sentiment is relatively positive. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term, with a focus on policy developments.
Melamine: Shandong 8433 + 433
The domestic melamine market continued its upward trend yesterday. Most enterprises had either suspended or limited their acceptance of orders during the week. Buying sentiment remained strong in the market, and it was expected that domestic supplies would remain tight, driving the market higher.
Ammonium sulfate: Shandong 1710+35.
The domestic market for ammonium sulfate experienced a modest price increase yesterday. The prices for the week had already been set, with most transactions focused on fulfilling existing orders. As prices continued to rise, the demand at the end-user level became weaker, increasing the pressure for further increases. It is expected that the short-term market will primarily absorb these price gains. Given the ongoing contradictions between supply and demand in the international market, a continued strong trend is anticipated.
Ammonium chloride: Shandong 660+0
The domestic market for ammonium chloride was stable over the past day. Associated alkali enterprises continued to prioritize shipment preparation, maintaining pricing strategies. Downstream compound fertilizer companies continued to meet their basic needs for purchases. Traders actively cleared their stocks and sold products. Lower-priced sources have impacted new high-priced orders. Short-term basic demand support remains, and the price of ammonium chloride continues to hover at a high level.
BHP, one of the world's largest diversified miners, has stated it expects the global potash market to move into deficit by 2035 — a forecast that carries significant weight for anyone tracking the fertilizer supply landscape.
According to Bloomberg, BHP's Head of Potash Karina Gistelinck outlined expectations for demand growth of 2–3% per annum over the coming decade, combined with meaningful constraints on the supply side. The conclusion: a structurally tight market is expected to develop, with pressure building well before the end of the decade.
This matters. Global potash supply is heavily concentrated among a small number of producers in Canada, Russia, and Belarus — a concentration that has already demonstrated its vulnerability to geopolitical disruption. New supply from outside these regions is not only commercially attractive, it is increasingly viewed as a strategic necessity.
Millennial Potash Corp. (TSXV: MLP | OTCQB: MLPNF | FSE: X0D) is advancing the Banio Potash Project in Gabon, West Africa — a large-scale, low-cost, solution mining project located directly on the Atlantic coast with direct shipping access to Brazil, the United States, and Africa. With a Measured and Indicated resource of 2.45 billion tonnes grading approximately 15.6% KCl, and a PEA-level after-tax NPV of US$1.07 billion at a US$61/tonne operating cost, Banio is positioned as one of the most compelling potash development assets outside of the traditional supply corridors.
The BHP forecast reinforces what the fundamentals have been signalling for some time. Projects with scale, low cost, and logistics advantages will be well-positioned as the market tightens.
Banio has all three.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Thursday, 26 March 2026
Nola urea values unchanged with April trading around $672–675/st fob as buying interest picked up, while prompt cargoes continue to command a premium near $680. The US market remains supported by ongoing concerns over import coverage, with additional Algerian cargoes lined up for April arrival. Amsul values higher in Brazil business reported at $300 cfr. Uncertainty prevails in regard to India entering the market with a new tender.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 710 (+10)
– Apr: $730 / $760 →
– May: $730 / $740 →
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 717.5 (+30)
– Apr: $720 / $770 →
– May: $710 / $750 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 697.5 (+30)
– Apr: $720 / $740 ↓
– May: $730 / $750 →
– June: $650 / $730 →
– July: $650 / $740 →
– Aug: $650 / $740 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 275.5 (+15.5)
– Apr: $270 / $300 ↑
– May: $260 / $300 ↑
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 830 (+35)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $890 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 625 / 640 →
– Apr: 675 / 685 →
– May: 650 / 670 →
– June: 590 / 600 ↑
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Apr: 680 / 690 →
– May: 640 / 660 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 395 / 410 →
– Apr: 485 / 495 →
– May: 485 / 495 →
Nandan Consulting: Factors Behind the Continuous Price Increase of Ammonium Sulfate
March 26, 2026 (Thursday)
I. Impact of the International Situation
Since the joint military strikes on Iran by Israel and the United States on February 28, the evolving situation in the Middle East has influenced the price trends of bulk commodities such as crude oil.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp increase in ocean freight costs.
Crucially, the Middle East is the largest urea exporting region, shipping approximately 20 million tons of urea annually, accounting for 35% of global maritime trade (with Iran alone accounting for about one-quarter).
Impacts on local facility operations and transportation restrictions have led to tight market supply, naturally driving prices upward.
While international ammonium sulfate prices have risen during the same period, the magnitude of the increase remains lagged compared to international urea.
In terms of international pricing, ammonium sulfate still maintains a price advantage over urea, which indirectly boosts the demand and cost-effectiveness of ammonium sulfate.
II. Costs — Rising Sulfur Prices Push Up Production Costs of Caprolactam-Grade Ammonium Sulfate
Many caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate facilities utilize outsourced sulfur to produce acid, yielding ammonium sulfate as a byproduct.
The recent continuous rise in sulfur prices has indirectly increased the production costs of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate.
Although ex-factory prices for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate have continued to rise recently, cost accounting indicates that the product is still in a state of loss.
Furthermore, shipments from raw material factories for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate have remained smooth.
Under the support of high costs and the absence of shipping pressure, prices continue to be pushed higher.
This has, in turn, indirectly boosted the auction sentiment for ammonium sulfate produced via other technical processes.
However, in the face of long-term price hikes for ammonium sulfate, market purchasing sentiment is gradually becoming more cautious.
Future Outlook
Moving forward, the primary focus will remain on the "progress of the Middle East situation and potential news regarding export controls."
* In the absence of new guiding information, short-term market prices are expected to maintain high levels, and the possibility of further catch-up increases cannot be ruled out.
N氮 Consultation: Ammonium Sulfate Price Market on March 26
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Today, the market price of ammonium sulfate continued to climb. Influenced by high price levels for international urea and domestic caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate, auction sentiment for coking-grade products is high, and prices continue to be pushed upward.
Areas for close monitoring include:
Adjustments to industry policies.
International geopolitical developments.
Trends in international urea prices.
Regional Market Transactions and Quotes
Central and Northern China
Henan Tianqing: Chemical-grade ammonium sulfate auction for 700 tons closed at 1485–1490 RMB/ton, an increase of 90 RMB/ton.
Henan Luoyang Longze Coking: Latest quote is 1450 RMB/ton, up 140 RMB/ton.
Henan Jingbao Coking Co., Ltd.: Latest quote increased by 140 to 1450 RMB/ton (excluding loading fees).
Shanxi Pingyao No. 1 Mine Coking: Auction for 200 tons with a starting price of 1520 RMB/ton resulted in no bids (failed auction).
Shanxi Gengyang Coking: 300 tons with a floor price of 1520 RMB/ton. The online auction failed, but it closed via offline negotiation at 1520 RMB/ton.
Yangmei Taihua Caprolactam: Small bags closed at 1680 RMB/ton (up 240); ton bags at 1670 RMB/ton (up 240).
Inner Mongolia Baogang Qinghua: Auction closed at 1333 RMB/ton, up 40 RMB/ton.
Inner Mongolia Baogang Steel Union (Coal Chemical Branch): Tender closed at 1343 RMB/ton, up 25 RMB/ton.
Eastern China
Shandong Hongxu: MMA ammonium sulfate tender for 3000 tons closed at 1435 RMB/ton.
Qingdao Special Steel Co., Ltd.: Latest quote increased by 86 to 1562 RMB/ton.
Anhui Huaibei Linhuan Coking Co., Ltd.: Tender starting price was 1330 RMB/ton; closed at 1522 RMB/ton, up 111 RMB/ton from the previous tender.
Shandong Shiheng Coking: Equipment operating normally; 200 tons (ton bags) tender price is 1520 RMB/ton, up 104 RMB/ton.
Northeast and Northwest China
Liaoning Linggang No. 1 Coking Plant: Ammonium sulfate quote is 1410–1412.5 RMB/ton.
Heilongjiang Jiamusi Dongxing Coking: Quote is 1395 RMB/ton, up 155 RMB/ton for 200 tons.
Jilin Tonghua Iron and Steel: 195 tons with a floor price of 1480 RMB/ton closed at 1485 RMB/ton, up 80 RMB/ton.
Ningxia Baofeng Energy: Phase I and III prices are 1380 RMB/ton; Phase II is 1340 RMB/ton (up 90 RMB/ton).
Shaanxi Longmen Coal Chemical: 600 tons tender closed at 1365–1390 RMB/ton, up 15–35 RMB/ton.
Other Regions
Yunnan Coal & Energy (Anning Coking Plant): 490 tons with a floor price of 1700 RMB/ton closed at 1700 RMB/ton, an increase of 340 RMB/ton.
Tangshan Baoliyuan Chemical: Latest quote increased by 65 to 1515 RMB/ton.
Caprolactam-Grade Factory Reference Prices (RMB/ton)
| Factory | Product/Type | Price | Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Shandong Luxi Chemical | Capro-grade (Premium) | 1720 | +10 |
| Yankuang Lunan Chemical | Caprolactam-grade | 1700 | – |
| Shanxi Lanhua | – | N/A | Shutdown/Maintenance |
| Hualu Hengsheng | Power Plant Crystals | 1525 | +10 |
| Hualu Hengsheng | Capro-grade (Bulk) | 1720 | +10 |
| Hualu Hengsheng | 50kg Small Bags | 1780 | +10 |
| Hualu Hengsheng | Ton Bags | 1790 | +10 |
| Hualu Hengsheng | 25kg Small Bags | 1800 | +10 |
| Baling Hengyi | Domestic Quote | 1730 | – |
| Cangzhou Xuyang | Capro-grade (Bulk) | 1800 | +50 |
| Dongming Xuyang | Capro-grade | 1750 | +40 |
| Guangxi Hengyi | Ex-factory Quote | 1790 | – |
Hey guys – hope you are having a good week!
Nexus Weekly Update
26/03/2026
In the Far East and South East Asia, it has been a relatively flat week. A slight reduction in tonnage has led to rates plateauing, yet cargo volumes remain well below expectations prior to the war. There is a noticeable lack of steel backhaul cargoes, limiting opportunities for vessels to leave the basin. Dirty cargoes have been the main support for rates, with a number of fixtures into Bangladesh and the ECI reported throughout the week. Bunker availability remains a key issue, with many head owners reluctant to sell, treating reserves as increasingly valuable. Overall, it is difficult to see any significant change in the region without the return of more coal and grain cargoes.
The Indian Ocean is still very headline driven with the Middle East situation keeping things on edge. We’ve seen a handful of Hormuz transits, but these are largely limited to government assisted tanker movements, dry remains a different story. Outside of Iran related business, most owners are still staying clear, and that reluctance is very much reflected in discussions. War risk continues to be a sticking point, both in the Red Sea and Middle East, with premiums, either capped or uncapped, complicating negotiations and in many cases killing deals before they get off the ground. As a result, we’re seeing a steady thinning of prompt tonnage as owners reposition elsewhere rather than take the exposure. Down in South Africa cargo enquiry has quietened. Softer commodity prices are feeding through to reduced enquiry, with traders/end users seemingly in wait and see position for now. Richards Bay congestion isn’t helping sentiment either, while truck and vessel waiting counts have dropped slightly from last week it still remains high and a few players are opting to stay on the sidelines until there’s further reductions.
The Mediterranean and Continent markets have come under notable pressure. With the Continent in particular experiencing a sharp correction last week in line with the broader weakness seen across other regions. In the handy segment, activity has softened slightly compared to the previous week, though a relatively short list of available tonnage has helped prevent rates from slipping too significantly. The supramax segment appears more balanced week-on-week, but this equilibrium is contributing to a degree of uncertainty in the market, ultimately proving unhelpful for generating fresh business and keeping sentiment somewhat subdued.
The South Atlantic market has also softened this week with the tonnage list lengthening as a result of limited cargo activity. A lack of firm enquiry in both West Africa and ECSA has seen owners adjust their rate expectations downwards, with competition increasing across the prompt positions. That said, vessels with stronger specifications and more bunkers are still managing to command a premium for the few fronthaul enquiries currently available. Looking ahead, there is some positivity for the coming week which could help rebalance the market. That being said, whilst rates across the basins are trending downwards, the bunker prices have continued to rise, meaning freight rates are still nudging up.
Further north, cargo volumes out of NCSA have trended lower feeding into the weaker US Gulf market, further contributing to the overall subdued tone across the Atlantic basin. A lack of fronthaul cargoes out of the US has led to vessels becoming trapped in the Atlantic. Enquiry has remained weak, adding further pressure across the basin as the tonnage list continues to grow. With both a poor ECSA and USG the Atlantic rates have been struggling as this tale looks set to continue.
Bunker prices are gradually easing, with Singapore indications around usd 880 pmt. Availability remains the main talking point. Owners are becoming more comfortable committing to stems, although traders continue to offer very short validity windows, which is adding friction to execution and hasn’t helped overall sentiment.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, Abu Qir sold 5,000 tonnes of granular urea and MOPCO did 7,000 tonnes at $800/tonne FOB for April loading.
LONDON (ICIS)–In Saudi Arabia, SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company (SABIC AN) has announced that it received approval from the Ministry of Energy on 25 March to allocate feedstock or gas required for the construction of its seventh nitrogen plant in Jubail Industrial City.
The new facility will annually produce around 1.2 million tonnes of conventional ammonia and 2.6 million tonnes of urea.
The project will increase its annual urea production capacity from 4.8 million tonnes to 7.4 million tonnes, representing a 54% increase.
Morning. Int'l paper Bids largely scarce/cautious y'day, so offers moved lower to find liquidity. As such, April Brazil traded down $10 from day prior to 730cfr, while May AG traded $735. In Nola, Apr Urea Paper and Phys traded up to $680 before meeting selling resistance. Mkts framed:
AG
Apr $730//$755
May $725//$745 – traded $735s
Cfr Brazil
Apr $715//$750 – traded $730
May $710//$745
Jun $675//$725
Egypt
Apr $745//$790
Nola
Phys: Loaded $680; Apr $672, $675, $680, $675, $678
Paper:
Apr $670//$678 – traded $677, $680
May $645//$670
Jun $600//$625- traded $595
UAN Nola
Apr $480//$515
May $455//$510
DAP Nola
Physical FH Apr traded $678, $675, $680, $685
Paper:
Mar $658//$663
Apr $675//$690
MAP Brazil
Apr $890//$920
Standard Amsul Capro grade
Price indication USD 274/ton FOB Tianjin
Total quantity: 6,322.45 MT
Loading port: Port of Tianjin (including Terminal 1 or 4, or Huisheng Terminal; excluding Lingang)
Preferred laycan: before April 15th
Market Info – March 26
1. China has further halted customs inspections (CIQ) for triple superphosphates (TSP), NP/NPK + organic material (OM), ammonium chloride (AC) and water-soluble fertilizers on 25 March, according to several Chinese suppliers. Besides, CAN (Calcium Nitrate) is also prohibited for export.
2. Whether the CIQ-cleared cargo still can be loaded for shipment remain unclear while some supplier are panic cancelling the confirmed orders.
3. On Ammonium Sulphate, TCC closed a sell tender of 8000mt Carpo Amsul at equivalent to usd 262 fob on 25th March, enhancing the upward momentum on the price. Following that, Highsun, on 26th March awarded another tender for 46kt Standard AS at usd 272 fob, loading from 16th to 30th April. Price firmness is still driving the the market.
4. Export restriction is likely to be further tightened, some rumors around Ammonium Sulphate is spreading among producers and traders, discussion is more about possible CIQ, export quota and price limit. Substantial inquiries are flooding from mutiple market, particularly, South East Asia. However, buying interest are largely contrained by the elevated price.
5. On freight market, most of brokers/shipowners are being cautious giving firm rates due to increasing oil price. Freight for futuer deliveries in 2 months are unaccessible yet. According to relavent sources, China-Brazil freight at $28-38/t for a 45-55kt size cargo while Panamax has jumped to around 25 dollars
The image provided is a detailed list of fertilizers subject to suspended exports. Below is the translation of the table headers and the specific line items.
Details of Suspended Fertilizer Exports
| No. | Customs HS Code | Product Name |
|—|—|—|
| 1 | 2827101000 | Ammonium chloride for fertilizer use |
| 2 | 3102100010 | Urea (within quota, whether or not in aqueous solution) |
| 3 | 3102100090 | Urea (outside quota, whether or not in aqueous solution) |
| 4 | 3102300000 | Ammonium nitrate (whether or not in aqueous solution) |
| 5 | 3102400000 | Mixtures of ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate, etc. |
| 6 | 3102600000 | Double salts and mixtures of calcium nitrate and ammonium nitrate |
| 7 | 3102800000 | Aqueous solutions of urea and ammonium nitrate mixtures |
| 8 | 3102909000 | Other mineral or chemical nitrogenous fertilizers (not listed above) |
| 9 | 3103111000 | Triple Superphosphate (TSP) [P_2O_5 content > 35% by weight] |
| 10 | 3103119000 | TSP in tablets, similar forms, or retail packaging (gross weight \le 10kg) |
| 11 | 3103190000 | Other superphosphates |
| 12 | 3103900000 | Other mineral or chemical phosphatic fertilizers |
| 13 | 3104202000 | Pure potassium chloride (KCl content > 99.5% by weight) |
| 14 | 3104209000 | Other potassium chloride (MOP) |
| 15 | 3104300000 | Potassium sulphate (SOP) |
| 16 | 3104901000 | Carnallite, sylvite, and other crude natural potassium salts |
| 17 | 3104909000 | Other mineral or chemical potassic fertilizers |
| 18 | 3105100010 | DAP in tablets or retail packaging (gross weight \le 10kg) |
| 19 | 3105100090 | Other Chapter 31 goods in retail packaging (gross weight \le 10kg) |
| 20 | 3105200010 | NPK compound fertilizers (within quota) |
| 21 | 3105200090 | NPK compound fertilizers (outside quota) |
| 22 | 3105300010 | Diammonium phosphate (DAP) (within quota) |
| 23 | 3105300090 | Diammonium phosphate (DAP) (outside quota) |
| 24 | 3105400000 | Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) (including mixtures with DAP) |
| 25 | 3105510000 | Fertilizers containing nitrates and phosphates |
| 26 | 3105590000 | Other fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus |
| 27 | 3105600000 | Fertilizers containing phosphorus and potassium |
| 28 | 3105901000 | Organic-inorganic compound fertilizers |
| 29 | 3105909000 | Other fertilizers |
I saw a posting that about 800,000 mt of fertlizers are stuck behind the Stait of Hormuz.