LONDON (ICIS)–In Nigeria, Dangote sold 30,000 tonnes of granular urea at $810/tonne FOB for H2 April. Last sale was on 20 March at 750 FOB for H1 April cargo.
The dollar fell on Tuesday on hopes that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran may not last as long as some feared, though it remained on track for its best quarter since the third quarter of 2024, supported by safe-haven demand due to lingering uncertainty over the conflict's duration.
The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.59% at 99.96. It is on track for a 2.35% monthly gain, best since July, and a 1.7% return for the first quarter.
The greenback has benefited from a safe-haven bid since the conflict began in late February, and as a net energy exporter, the U.S. is also relatively better positioned to handle oil disruptions than
other nations.
U.S. President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even
if the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping artery remains largely closed with unclear plans to get it reopened at a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing administration officials.
However, other signs pointed to escalation in the conflict. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.
“It's difficult to keep track of who's saying what and exactly what the implications of some of these comments are,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with a new threat, saying that they will target U.S. companies in the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran from Wednesday, listing 18 entities including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla and Boeing.
“Markets are concerned that it might go on for longer, that the conflict could broaden, and the aftershocks could be significant and long-lasting. There's still a lot of uncertainty here about where we actually land on this,” Osborne said.
He said the dollar is overvalued, but expects it to remain supported as long as war concerns weigh on risk appetite and the equity market's VIX – an index of volatility – stays elevated.
China and Pakistan on Tuesday called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gulf and the wider Middle East, urging the swift launch of peace talks and the restoration of normal navigation in the strait, as their foreign ministers met in Beijing.
TRADERS GEAR UP FOR JOBS DATA
Trading on Tuesday was also likely influenced by investors repositioning for month- and quarter-end.
U.S. job openings fell more than expected in February and hiring dropped to the lowest level in nearly six years, government data showed on Tuesday.
This week's main U.S. economic focus will be Friday's jobs report for March. It is expected to show that employers added 60,000 jobs during the month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, following an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs in February.
A sharp deterioration in the labor market would likely revive expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, which have been largely priced out as rising oil prices from the Iran war stoke inflation concerns.
The euro gained 0.68% to $1.1543. It is set for a 2.25% monthly decline, the worst since July and a 1.7% quarterly loss, the worst since Q3 2024.
The pound strengthened 0.33% to $1.3228. It is on track for a 1.9% monthly loss, the worst since October, and 1.8% quarterly drop.
The Japanese yen rose 0.55% against the greenback to 158.84 per dollar.
The dollar is on pace for a 1.8% monthly gain against the Japanese currency and a 1.4% quarterly increase.
The yen rebounded for a second day after Japanese officials stepped up threats to intervene in the currency to stem recent weakness, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday repeating Tokyo's readiness to respond "on all fronts" against volatile moves.
Katayama also labelled recent yen falls as speculative for the first time since the Middle East war began, shifting focus back to currency short-sellers as policymakers braced for a triple market selloff driven by fresh inflationary concerns.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.75% to $67,757.
Important: Policy Changes Imminent (Key Alert – April 2026)
Although currently not subject to inspections, based on the latest developments in the industry, significant changes to regulatory policies may be imminent.
According to reports from multiple authoritative industry media outlets, in order to ensure the smooth operation of the market, relevant authorities are conducting intensive research. The export of ammonium sulfate is “highly likely” to be re-included in the legal inspection list in the near future. Currently, there has been a phenomenon of “competing for export opportunities,” and the risk of the policy being formally implemented is very high.
China Morning Briefing 2026-4-1
❤ Urea: Yesterday, most of the domestic urea enterprises’ transactions were driven by basic needs. Production companies relied heavily on pending orders. The quoted prices remained stable. New orders were successfully concluded in some regions. Looking at the short term, the market is likely to continue operating smoothly.
❤ Melamine: The domestic melamine market continued to experience upward trends yesterday. Some companies have temporarily halted taking orders. As prices reached high levels, downstream and midstream users expressed resistance and concerns about the current prices. Trade in the domestic spot market slowed down. However, considering the continuous presence of export orders, the domestic spot market remains tense. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market continued to experience price increases yesterday. This was due to temporary reductions in production by some ammonia producers, sustained port accumulation, and a generally favorable environment for low-end supply and demand. High-end sales faced pressure, while downstream demand was largely driven by essential purchases. It is expected that the synthetic ammonia market will remain stable with a focus on active sales.
❤ Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride was stable over the past day. Fertilizer companies purchased according to their needs, showing resistance to high prices. Companies producing caustic soda and ammonia primarily focused on preparing for shipment, maintaining prices while waiting to see. As demand decreased, the atmosphere within the market weakened. However, considering that the companies producing caustic soda and ammonia had sufficient inventory ready for shipment and would undergo equipment maintenance in the future, it is expected that prices will remain firm for the time being.
❤Ammonium sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic market for ammonium sulfate experienced a price increase following a period of low prices. Both the supply and demand dynamics in the market, as well as international factors, continue to provide support. The price of ammonium sulfate has risen to a higher level, and the bidding prices for coke-grade products have seen a further increase. Given the existing supply and demand imbalances, it is anticipated that the market for ammonium sulfate will likely maintain its strong upward trend in the short term. Keep a close eye on today’s tender developments.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate fertilizer remained stable yesterday. There have been no changes in producer prices. Raw material sulfur prices continued to rise, increasing production costs. Factory production has decreased, and maintenance and repair plans have increased. The market is currently in a state of temporary stalemate and observation.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued its consolidation yesterday. Raw material prices continued to rise, increasing the pressure on costs. Demand was slowly responding, and downstream operations remained cautious. The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation and consolidation in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market trended relatively stable yesterday. The release of potassium chloride exceeded 2 million tons. Downstream factory market purchasing intentions were limited. Currently, the import price of 62% white potassium is mostly between 3,150 to 3,500 yuan/ton, with a slight downward trend in higher-end prices. The pressure on manufacturers of sulfuric acid fertilizers regarding costs is evident, and their prices remain firm.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic market for compound fertilizers performed relatively strongly yesterday. The current raw material costs are still on an upward trend. Under pressure from this situation, companies have raised their prices. However, the spring market is coming to a close, and the low-cost inventory held by channels has not yet been depleted. As a result, the transmission of high prices has been slow, and the compound fertilizer market has continued in a state of high and stagnant prices for the short term.
china early information: (2026-4-1)
Synthetic Ammonia: Shandong 2560 + 40
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market continued to recover, as some ammonia companies reduced quantities for a short time, the port continued to drive, the low supply and demand atmosphere was good, high shipments were under pressure, and the downstream was mostly short-term buyers. It is expected that the sethane ammonia Market will stabilize steadily and active shipments will be the mainstay.
Urine: Linyi, Shandong 1900 + 0
Yesterday, domestic urea enterprises' contracts were mostly in need of follow-up, manufacturers mostly relied on waiting for orders to be issued, and reports maintained a stable operation, and new contracts in some regions were still acceptable. In the short term, the market may maintain a steady operation.
Compound fertilizer: Shandong 45% S 3400 + 0
Yesterday, the domestic waste cleaning market performed relatively strongly. At present, raw material costs are still in the state of rising, under its pressure, enterprises are pushing up prices, but the spring market has ended, and low-priced sources have not yet been consumed, so the transmission of high prices is slow, and the short-term waste Cleaning market continues to have a high standstill.
Melamine: Shandong 9,500 + 250
Yesterday, the domestic melamine market continued to be dominated by an upward trend, and some companies have temporarily suspended taking orders. Subsequently, prices rose to a high level, and middle and downstream users were resistant to and worried about the current price, and trade in the domestic trade spot market showed a slowdown trend, but considering that the current export orders continued, the domestic trade market remained tense, and the short-term market was expected to operate mainly in a firm position.
Ammonium sulphate: Shandong 1740 + 0
Low prices in the domestic ammonium sulfate market rose yesterday. Market supply and demand and international support remained positive, with ammonium sulfate prices rising at a high level, and coking-grade auction prices rising in a low price. Due to contradictory supply and demand, the ammonium sulfate market is expected to continue its high and firm trend in the short term, and pay close attention to today's tendering development.
Ammonium Chloride: Shandong 660 + 0
Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market was fully operational, and waste enterprises purchased as needed. There is some resistance to the high level, and Liandian enterprises implemented a wait-and-see approach, holding prices up. With some contraction in demand, the atmosphere in the field weakened, but given the ample wait-and maintenance of Liandian businesses and the presence of maintenance equipment in the future, prices are expected to remain firm for the time being.
All Iranian producers of urea and synthetic ammonia had fully resumed operations on March 28. Currently, Iran has re-approved export licenses for all producers. Yesterday, two ships carrying a total of 60,000 tons of Iranian April shipment large-granule urea were sold.
[Urea] On March 31, the urea industry produced 221,900 tons per day, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, this represents an increase of 30,700 tons. The current operating rate is 94.23%, up by 9.25% from 84.98% last year.
Helwan:
Hi
We sold 8 kt at 820$ for FH May shipping
Morning. Quiet start to the week on Int'l paper y'day. In Nola, FH April Urea barge values held mid-$690s, while DAP paper saw May trade $690 (Apr $690-$692 on Friday). Mkts framed:
AG
Apr $740//$765
May $725//$755
Cfr Brazil
Apr $745//$760
May $725//$745
Jun $675//$725
Egypt
Apr $775//$820
Nola
Phys: Fh April traded $695, Fh May $686
Paper:
Apr $685//$695
May $670//$680
Jun $620//$635
UAN Nola
Apr $480//$515
May $485//$510
DAP Nola
Apr $690//$695
May $683//$695 – traded $690
Jun $663//$690
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Tuesday, 31 March 2026
Markets remain firm with Nola values holding steady around $695–700/st fob amid thin trade, as participants monitor international developments. India continues to assess supply options following lower domestic production and LNG shortages, with expectations building for a fresh import tender. Global supply remains tight, with delayed shipments and limited Middle East availability continuing to support prices. In Asia and Brazil, demand for alternative nitrogen sources persists, with increasing purchases of ammonium sulphate alongside urea cargoes.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 747.5 (+37.5)
– Apr: $730 / $760 ↓
– May: $740 / $770 ↓
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 780 (+62.5)
– Apr: $750 / $800 →
– May: $750 / $800 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 730 (+32.5)
– Apr: $745 / $760 ↑
– May: $740 / $760 →
– June: $650 / $730 →
– July: $650 / $740 →
– Aug: $650 / $740 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 295 (+19.5)
– Apr: $280 / $300 ↑
– May: $280 / $300 ↑
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 855 (+25)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $890 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 630 / 640 ↑
– Apr: 680 / 690 →
– May: 670 / 685 →
– June: 625 / 640 →
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Apr: 690 / 695 ↑
– May: 688 / 692 ↑
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 420 / 430 ↑
– Apr: 485 / 495 →
– May: 485 / 495 →
Headline: Two Giant Chinese Vessels Successfully Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz
Full Report:
Cailian Press, March 31 — The Hong Kong-registered container ships "CSCL Arctic Ocean" (中海北冰洋) and "CSCL Indian Ocean" (中海印度洋), which had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over a month, successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the morning of March 31, Beijing time.
This marks the first time since late February that large-scale Chinese vessels have navigated the strait, a move that has restored confidence in the strained global supply chain.
According to vessel tracking data, the "CSCL Arctic Ocean" and "CSCL Indian Ocean" weighed anchor from waters near Dubai on the evening of March 30, Beijing time. They followed the shipping route between Iran's largest island, Qeshm, and Larak Island at a speed of approximately 10.4 knots. After clearing the narrow exit of the Strait of Hormuz, they entered the Gulf of Oman.
Tracking data indicates that both vessels are expected to arrive at Port Klang, Malaysia, on April 6. (Source: Shenzhen News Network)
Key Details at a Glance
• Vessels: CSCL Arctic Ocean and CSCL Indian Ocean (Ultra-large container ships).
• Location: Strait of Hormuz (exiting the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman).
• Status: Had been stranded/stationary for over 30 days prior to this passage.
• Significance: First major Chinese transit since the end of February 2026; seen as a positive signal for global shipping stability.
• Next Stop: Port Klang, Malaysia (ETA April 6).
China Morning Briefing – March 31, 2026
❤ Urea: In recent two days, the domestic urea market has been characterized by regional trends, with overall performance characterized by a tepid and stagnant state. Under normal circumstances, the urea market has also maintained its current situation for the time being. It cannot be ruled out that individual enterprises may offer slight price concessions in an effort to boost sales.
❤ Melamine: The domestic melamine market experienced significant price increases yesterday, with some enterprises reaching prices of 10,000 yuan. While the short-term fundamentals of market supply and demand have shown limited changes, companies continue to receive export orders and have ample pending orders. The availability of spot supply resources remains tight. While companies may continue to push up prices in the short term, it is essential to monitor the purchasing sentiments of downstream users.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market experienced significant price increases yesterday. Trading activity intensified, and the price focus rose sharply. In the north, prices were driven up significantly by corporate malfunctions, tenders, and exports. Downstream sentiment was highly cautious, while prices in the south, which were already high, only saw a slight increase. It is expected that the synthetic ammonia market will remain relatively flat for a short period, with a focus on sales.
❤Ammonium chloride: Yesterday, the main trend in the domestic market for ammonium chloride remained stable. Associated alkali enterprises primarily focused on executing pending shipments, showing strong price-holding intentions. Meanwhile, traders actively cleared their inventories, and there were low-level supplies available in the market. Ammonium chloride enterprises had limited capacity to receive high-level orders. Downstream compound fertilizer companies needed to replenish their stocks. There was little change in the supply and demand situation. It is expected that the price of ammonium chloride will remain stable in the short term.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The domestic market for ammonium sulfate remained largely stable with minor fluctuations over the past day. The production facilities of caprolactam-based raw material plants have no pressure on their shipments. Against the backdrop of high international urea prices and costs, lower prices have still experienced upward adjustments. However, faced with high-priced sources, downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, and it will take time for prices to be absorbed by the downstream sector. It is expected that the market for ammonium sulfate will remain in a state of cautious observation in the short term.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate was stable yesterday. The factory price of 55% powder in Hubei Province was around 4,050 yuan/ton. Supplier enterprises continued to adhere to the price of 3,850 yuan/ton. The price of raw material sulfur reached a new high, and the price of sulfuric acid continued to rise. The costs remained under increasing pressure, but due to the influence of policies and only essential demand from downstream industries, the market remained robust in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market saw a relatively stable trend yesterday. Raw material prices reached new highs, and pressure on costs continued to intensify. However, the overall market remained cautious, and demand was gradually released. Downstream industries continued to purchase only as needed. In the short term, the market will remain in a state of consolidation.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market has been experiencing a period of weak consolidation. There is still a significant price discrepancy between market prices and guidance prices. However, with efforts to maintain supply and continue dispatching products to downstream customers, the market’s purchasing demand has been relatively limited. The potassium sulfate market remains strong, with raw material prices continuing to rise, putting significant pressure on manufacturers’ production costs.
❤Composite fertilizers: Spring demand is gradually entering its later stages, and distributors are restocking as needed. Summer demand release is slow, and new high-price orders are limited. The market continues to primarily absorb earlier orders, but driven by raw material cost pressures, companies are strongly inclined to maintain prices. Some prices are expected to rise further. The short-term composite fertilizer market is expected to remain high. Pay close attention to policies and changes in new pricing by major enterprises for the following month.
[Urea] On March 30, the urea industry produced 219,100 tons per day, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day; compared to the same period last year, this represents an increase of 26,100 tons. The current operating rate is 93.04%, up by 7.26% from 85.78% last year.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Monday, 30 March 2026
Nola urea values held firm, with April physical trading around $675/st and paper at $680/st. Market sentiment remains supported at elevated levels following recent gains. Brazil urea derivatives traded at 747 for April, reflecting continued strength in international markets.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 747.5 (+37.5)
– Apr: $730 / $780 →
– May: $740 / $790 →
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 780 (+62.5)
– Apr: $750 / $800 →
– May: $750 / $800 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 730 (+32.5)
– Apr: $745 / $750 ↑
– May: $740 / $760 →
– June: $650 / $730 →
– July: $650 / $740 →
– Aug: $650 / $740 →
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 295 (+19.5)
– Apr: $270 / $300 →
– May: $260 / $300 →
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 855 (+25)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $890 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Mar: 625 / 640 →
– Apr: 680 / 690 ↑
– May: 670 / 685 ↑
– June: 625 / 640 ↑
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Mar: 650 / 660 →
– Apr: 680 / 690 →
– May: 640 / 660 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Mar: 395 / 410 →
– Apr: 485 / 495 →
– May: 485 / 495 →
Morning. Mkts remained firm last week in tight global supply, and little sign so far of conflict resolution in M.East. Int'l urea paper activity focused on April Brazil Thurs/Fri, with values found in mid/upper-$740s, while Nola Urea saw prompt barges trade $700, and April paper $695. Paper framed:
AG
Apr $735//$760
May $725//$750
_[May traded $735s last week]_
Cfr Brazil
Apr $745//$755 – traded $747 Fri
_[Apr traded $705-$747 l/w]_
May $725//$745
_[May traded $733-$731.50 l/w]_
Jun $675//$725
Egypt
Apr $775//$820
Nola
Phys: Fh April traded $695 Fri
Paper:
Apr $690//$700
_[$675-$695 l/w]_
May $675//$685
_[$680-$685 l/w]_
Jun $620//$635
_[$595-$640 l/w]_
UAN Nola
Apr $480//$515
May $485//$510
DAP Nola
Apr $690//$695 – traded $690, $692 Fri
May $680//$705
Jun $650//$700
MAP Brazil
Apr $890//$920