Good morning,
this is our weekly update on Baltic levels:
$670-730 FOB pUrea, +$50-60 for automotive grade
$720-750 FOB gUrea,
$520-550 FOB AN,
$470-480 FOB UAN,
$400-490 FOB T16
Freight 30kt:
Baltic-1p Brazil – $45-50
Baltic-2p WC Mexico – $80-90
Baltic-2p EC Mexico – $50-55
50-60kt
Baltic-1p WC India – $55-65
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Thursday, 9 April 2026
Markets reacted to ceasefire headlines with initial sell pressure, particularly in Nola, where April and May traded down to $675 and $650 respectively before recovering to above $700 and $670–700. Participants remain cautious as they assess potential near- and medium-term impacts if the ceasefire holds. International markets continue to show wide bid-ask spreads, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 800 (+52.5)
– Apr: $730 / $800 →
– May: $680 / $790 ↓
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 820 (+40)
– Apr: $800 / $850 →
– May: $750 / $830 →
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 765 (+35)
– Apr: $700 / $765 ↓
– May: $650 / $730 ↓
– June: $600 / $700 ↓
– July: $600 / $700 ↓
– Aug: $600 / $700 ↓
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 295 (unchanged)
– Apr: $280 / $290 →
– May: $260 / $285 ↓
– June: $250 / $285 ↓
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 865 (+10)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $900 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Apr: 700 / 720 ↑
– May: 670 / 700 →
– June: 620 / 680 →
– July: 550 / 650 ↓
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Apr: 730 / 760 →
– May: 760 / 780 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Apr: 500 / 550 →
– May: 500 / 550 →
Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy posted a map showing alternative shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to help transiting ships avoid naval mines, the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA said early on Thursday.
Federal Reserve policymakers may consider cutting interest rates later this year now that an agreement for a two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict has eased concerns about a resurgence of inflation, but with uncertainty over the outlook for peace and oil prices still some 30% above their prewar levels, monetary policy easing is far from a done deal.
That's at least what traders were betting on Wednesday, as they digested the potential impact from a lasting settlement in the Middle East and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon and an Iranian hit on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline underscored uncertainty over the temporary truce, and minutes from the Fed's March meeting showed some central bankers felt a need to communicate openness to rate hikes should inflation stay high.
Data expected later this week will likely show consumer prices rose in March at a pace not seen since the 2022 height of the post-pandemic inflation that set off an aggressive round of Fed rate hikes.
Fed policymakers say a temporary spike in headline inflation would not merit a change to short-term interest rates. A longer-lasting war and sustained higher prices that could hurt household finances, however, could force a difficult choice between leaving rates high to deal with inflation or to focus on cushioning the economy by reducing rates.
With a U.S. delegation headed to Pakistan for peace talks this weekend, traders were hedging their bets.
Interest-rate futures contracts currently reflect about a one-in-four chance of a U.S. interest-rate cut by year-end. That's down from about a 65% chance of a rate cut priced immediately after the ceasefire, but also a big shift from before the ceasefire, when traders had built in some chance of a Fed rate hike.
"With conditions much less likely to pressure the Fed to hike this year, we think the market should be pricing in closer to one full cut in the U.S.," wrote Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha.
Elsewhere in the world, the shift in central bank expectations after the ceasefire announcement was more pronounced, with traders scaling back what had been bets on multiple rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, speaking on Wednesday, did not dwell on the ceasefire's ramifications for rate policy.
Instead she told the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in Utah that it was too early to know how the Iran war and higher oil prices would affect the economy because it depends on how long the conflict lasts.
"There's a concern that maybe this will push inflation up: that's our job, we'll focus on that," she said. "And there's a concern that maybe the labor market isn't as solid, but we're not seeing that, we're seeing it kind of settle at a good place."
China Morning Briefing 2026-4-9
❤ Urea: The domestic urea market remained largely stable with minor fluctuations yesterday. The production and distribution regions’ urea plant capacity remains tight, and prices have remained stable and firm. Although there has been a slight increase in inventory in regions such as Northwest and Southwest China, overall, the domestic urea supply and demand remain in a tight balance, and the market trend has temporarily strengthened.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market in major production regions showed mixed trends. Some companies in Shanxi that had experienced maintenance issues resumed production, driving down prices to stimulate sales. Meanwhile, supplies in East China remained tight, with some prices still increasing. The current decline in high prices has impacted neighboring markets, but most ammonia producers currently do not face significant inventory pressure. Nevertheless, the ammonia market remains subject to fluctuations and downward consolidation due to regional interconnectedness.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The market for ammonium sulfate was mixed yesterday. The domestic purchasing sentiment was influenced by news of potential negotiations between the United States and Iran, coupled with the previous high prices of the main product. The atmosphere of waiting and watching intensified. It is expected that the market for ammonium sulfate will remain relatively stable and fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.
❤Ammonium chloride: The domestic market for ammonium chloride remained stable yesterday. The production of compound fertilizers slightly decreased, leading to a decline in demand for ammonium chloride. Companies primarily focused on liquidating their inventory. Soda ash producers mainly fulfilled earlier contracts, maintaining prices despite lack of inventory pressure. The short-term supply and demand were in a state of weak balance. It is expected that prices will remain stable.
❤Melamine: The domestic melamine market saw a steady downward trend yesterday, with limited transactions for some high-end sources. Overall, the short-term market supply and demand fundamentals appear to be weak, and industry participants’ purchasing enthusiasm is relatively limited. It is expected that prices may continue to fluctuate.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for potassium chloride was relatively stable yesterday. The volume of available supplies in circulation was relatively limited, and prices remained largely consistent with those from earlier periods. However, downstream factories primarily purchased based on their needs, leading to overall cautious operations. The production costs for manufacturers of sulfuric potassium salts were under significant pressure, but the overall plant utilization rate remained low.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable yesterday. The prices of suppliers remained unchanged. In Hubei, the factory price of 55% powder was reported around 4,150 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations taking place. Although the price of raw material sulfur at ports has declined, domestic production continues to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid remains high. Cost pressures persist, supply has decreased, and the market remains strong in the short term.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market remained stable yesterday. The raw material prices remained high, and the cost-side support remained strong. Market prices showed resilience, but downstream demand remained consistent with necessary purchasing patterns. Overall trading sentiment was subdued, and the market is expected to continue operating at a high level in the short term.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic compound fertilizer market continued to show strong upward momentum yesterday. This is largely due to cost-related factors. However, new orders were hampered by issues such as low-priced inventory in distribution channels and declining demand, resulting in artificially high quotations. It is advisable to monitor changes in downstream sentiment in the short term. It is expected that compound fertilizers will continue to consolidate at a high level.
Fertilizer Basics:
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Fertilizer is the quiet foundation of the modern food system: it literally underwrites roughly half of global crop output and, by extension, the diets and livelihoods of billions of people. The world can debate vegetarianism, food waste and diet choices, but none of those change the basic arithmetic that more people, on finite land, require more yield per hectare – and those yields are overwhelmingly a story of Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) and the energy and chemistry behind them.
It is my personal contention that not including fertiliser in the protections of the Geneva convention was a massive oversight that we are about to experience the serious consequences of. When the Geneva Conventions were signed in the late 1940s, the world had on the order of 2.5 billion people; today it is over 8 billion – more than a tripling of population without a tripling of arable land. Over that period, the difference between subsistence and surplus has been synthetic fertilizer. A systemic cut‑off of, say, half the world’s sulfuric acid production (that goes through the Strait of Hormuz) or a large fraction of ammonia output (30% goes through the Strait of Horuz) is not an abstract industrial shock; it will directly shape the growing seasons of the world’s breadbaskets, rice bowls and maize belts. The first‑order response – higher fertilizer prices – is simple supply and demand. The deeper story is that higher prices compress already thin farm margins, push weaker farmers out of business, and force both commercial and smallholder producers to under‑apply or stop applying nutrients. Yields fall, most sharply in the poorest regions; food prices rise; and, at the hard edge of the distribution, people go hungry. A market worth “only” a few hundred billion dollars turns out to be one of the most systemically important markets on earth. This seemingly minor disruption in global fertilizer input supply chains, is going to cause hundreds of millions of people to go hungry, and there is a significant risk that at the very bottom of the food chain, people are going to starve to death. Ignorance of the important role of fertilizer in the global economy has the ability to kill and harm more people than any war.
There are a number of dangerous misunderstanding regarding fertilizer. The first common misunderstanding is that “fertilizer” is ammonia/nitrogen. That’s understandable – ammonia is ~80% of total fertilizers and absorbs most of the energy input – but it is like thinking that carbohydrates alone make a diet. Nitrogen is the calorie‑dense staple, but phosphorus and potassium are the proteins and micronutrients of the soil diet: you need all three in balance, and you cannot simply pile on more N to compensate for missing P or K. Without phosphorus, roots and grain development stall; without potassium, plants lose water‑use efficiency and stress tolerance; and without nitrogen, biomass and protein never materialise. All three macro‑nutrients are co‑limiting: yields are constrained by whichever is scarcest, and the productivity gains attributed to “ammonia” actually rest on phosphate rock, potash and the sulfur chemistry that unlocks them.
The second misunderstanding is that “energy is fungible” in nitrogen production. Haber–Bosch is not a generic box that you can plug any random energy source into at scale. You need vast quantities of hydrogen at low cost and continuous operation. Today, natural gas is the most efficient way to provide both the hydrogen feedstock and the process energy, which is why gas price spikes translate almost linearly into more expensive nitrogen fertilizers. In principle, you can electrify hydrogen production and run green ammonia, but that requires cheap, reliable electricity at scales that barely exist outside a few regions, and the capital stock to match.
Haber–Bosch is the industrial magic trick that turns the nitrogen in the air into plant food. About 78% of the air is nitrogen gas, but in that form plants can’t use it; Haber–Bosch forces nitrogen from air to react with hydrogen (usually stripped from natural gas) at very high temperature and pressure to make ammonia, the starting point for most nitrogen fertilizers. That ammonia is then upgraded into nitrates and other nitrogen compounds that crops can actually absorb. Nitrogen is effectively limitless, but cheap nitrogen fertilizer is not: keeping nitrogen costs low has historically meant building multi‑billion‑dollar ammonia plants right next to large, reliable natural‑gas fields, because gas provides both the hydrogen and most of the energy. A modern world‑scale ammonia plant typically costs in the low single‑digit billions of dollars to build and takes several years from planning to production, so expanding capacity is always a slow, capital‑intensive process rather than something the world can do overnight.
A third misunderstanding is that sulfuric acid is just some interchangeable reagent you can swap out. Sulfuric acid is how we turn inert phosphate rock into plant‑available phosphoric acid, and the sulfur does not simply disappear: sulfur is itself a secondary nutrient, taken up by crops and essential for protein synthesis and oil content in many plants. Treating sulfuric acid as an expendable industrial chemical ignores its embedded role in the nutrient economy. A structurally constrained sulfur or sulfuric‑acid market chokes off phosphate availability and, in parallel, deprives crops of sulfur, which is already emerging as a limiting nutrient in some high‑input systems as atmospheric sulfur deposition falls.
Sulfuric acid is the unglamorous acid that quietly unlocks a big share of the world’s food. It is produced mainly by burning sulfur (much of it recovered from “sour” crude oil and natural gas that contain a lot of sulfur) or sulfur‑rich smelter off‑gases to make sulfur dioxide, then oxidising this to sulfur trioxide and absorbing it in water or existing acid – the classic contact process. That makes sulfuric acid a kind of by‑product of cleaning up fossil fuels and metal ores, not to be confused with heavy crude like Venezuelan or Canadian oil sands crudes, which are called “heavy” because their molecules are larger and more viscous, not simply because they are sulfur‑rich. A modern sulfuric acid plant can cost in the hundreds of millions of dollars for a modest unit and up towards a billion for large, integrated capacities, depending on scale and configuration. Globally, sulfuric acid is a mid‑teens‑billion‑dollar business – about 15–18 billion USD in 2024 by most estimates – and roughly 55–60% of all sulfuric acid is consumed in fertilizer production, mainly to turn phosphate rock into phosphoric acid for phosphate fertilizers. Another 10–20% goes into metal and mining uses such as leaching and ore processing, with the remainder spread across chemicals, batteries, refining and other industrial applications. In other words, a relatively small sulfuric‑acid market, largely fed by sulfur taken off sour fossil fuels, controls the availability of phosphate fertilizers that help feed billions.
Fourth there is the comforting illusion that “you can just apply fertilizer whenever.” You cannot. Crops have narrow windows when they can effectively take up N, P and K; miss those windows and the nutrients are lost to leaching, volatilisation or fixation, and the yield potential for that season is gone. Under‑application in one season also has memory: soils are mined of residual P and K; less biomass returns to the field; organic matter declines; and the next year’s crop starts from a lower fertility baseline even if you restore applications. Timing and continuity of fertilization are as important as absolute tonnage. In a world of 8‑plus billion people, those narrow windows, and the small set of chemicals that feed into them, have become one of the thin mineral lines between sufficiency and scarcity.
Last but least is the idea that we can simply swap synthetic fertilizer for “natural” options like manure and crop rotations is one of the most dangerous misconceptions in the entire food debate. It confuses what was barely enough to scrape by in a low‑yield, pre‑industrial world with what is needed to feed more than 8 billion people today. Manure, compost and rotations are valuable agronomic tools – they improve soil structure, recycle some nutrients and are essential for long‑term soil health – but they are not remotely abundant enough, or logistically scalable enough, to replace the billions of kilograms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium that modern cropping systems remove every year. Pre‑synthetic‑fertilizer agriculture was precisely the world that terrified Malthus: low yields, frequent crop failures and chronic vulnerability to hunger that plagued the world before the discovery of synthetic fertilizer, built on Haber–Bosch nitrogen, industrial phosphate and potash, broke that trap.
Globally, soils are still heavily nutrient‑deficient. Even with today’s fertilizer use, large areas of cropland lack adequate nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulfur, which is why yield gaps between research plots and farmers’ fields remain so large in much of Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America. International assessments consistently find that raising yields where they are currently very low will require more, not less, nutrient input – especially nitrogen and phosphorus – alongside better management to reduce losses and environmental damage. FAO and other agencies repeatedly make the same basic point in different language: alleviating food poverty is, in practice, about alleviating “fertilizer poverty.” Hundreds of millions of smallholders still use little or no mineral fertilizer because it is too expensive, unavailable, or risky given their cash flow and climate exposure, and that is a major reason their yields are a fraction of agronomic potential. Closing those nutrient deficits with balanced, well‑timed N, P, K and sulfur applications is one of the fastest ways to raise local food availability and incomes.
For a planet of 8‑plus billion people, there is no credible route to ending food poverty that does not run straight through more and better fertilizer.
The value of the global fertilizer market
The global fertilizer complex is a few‑hundred‑billion‑dollar market that anchors a multi‑trillion‑dollar food economy, and shocks to its key sub‑markets (N, P, K, sulfuric acid and natural gas) hit global inflation and the poorest households hardest.
Recent industry estimates put the global fertilizer market around 200–230 billion USD in the mid‑2020s.
Nitrogenous fertilizers: About 128 billion USD in 2024 (urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN etc.), roughly 55–60% of total fertilizer value.
Phosphate fertilizers: Around 73 billion USD in 2024, with projections to about 120 billion USD by 2033.
Potash fertilizers: About 22 billion USD in 2024, expected to rise to roughly 32 billion USD by 2034.
By nutrient tonnage, nitrogen accounts for about 57–58% of global fertilizer consumption, phosphate about 23%, and potash about 18%, which aligns with the value shares above.
Key upstream enablers: sulfuric acid and natural gas
Sulfuric acid: The global sulfuric acid market was about 23.2 billion USD in 2024, with a major share of demand coming from phosphate fertilizer production.
Natural gas: Gas is the main feedstock and energy source for ammonia; it typically accounts for 72–85% of the variable cost of ammonia production, so gas price spikes map almost directly into nitrogen fertilizer prices.
Ammonia itself (much of it going into fertilizers) is a large chemicals market in its own right, “tens of billions of dollars’ worth of natural gas and over 20 billion dollars of sulfuric acid are transformed into nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers that unlock around 200‑plus billion dollars of fertilizer products each year.”
The downstream markets those inputs support
FAO and World Bank data put the gross value of global primary agricultural production at just over 5 trillion USD per year, with agriculture value added around 3.2 trillion USD. The broader food system (processing, distribution, retail and food services) is estimated to generate between 2 and 5 times as much value as farm production itself, pushing the total food‑system economy into the low‑ to mid‑tens of trillions of dollars.
In other words: A roughly 200–230 billion USD fertilizer industry, supported by about 23 billion USD in sulfuric acid and a large but still modest slice of the natural‑gas sector, helps underpin:
~5 trillion USD of primary agricultural output.
A multi‑trillion‑dollar global food system when you add processing, logistics and retail.
Mineral fertilizers are widely credited with enabling about 50% of global crop production. That means “half” of that 5‑trillion‑dollar farm economy – on the order of 2–3 trillion USD – and half of the global food industry – 10-25 trillion USD – is functionally contingent on the continued availability of NPK, sulfuric acid and cheap hydrogen from natural gas.
Fertilizer, CPI and inflation
Food is a major component of consumer price indices (CPI): In many middle‑ and high‑income countries, food typically accounts for 10–30% of the CPI basket. In low‑income countries, food can easily represent 40% or more of household consumption and thus of CPI weights.
When fertilizer prices surge: First‑round effect: Farm production costs jump because nitrogen, phosphate and potash become more expensive. FAO’s 2025 fertilizer market update, for example, reports that an average fertilizer “basket” was about 336 USD/tonne in 2024, down from 375 USD/tonne in 2023 but still well above pre‑crisis levels, underlining how elevated prices squeeze margins. Second‑round effect: Many farmers, especially in emerging and low‑income regions, respond by cutting application rates or skipping some nutrients, which depresses yields, particularly for cereals and other fertilizer‑responsive crops.
Higher costs per tonne plus fewer tonnes mean higher farm‑gate prices, which feed through to higher food prices and, given food’s heavy weight in CPI, to broader inflation. These dynamics are why fertilizer shortages and price spikes are often visible in global food price indices and headline inflation data.
The poorest consumers get hurt the most. FAO’s State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024 reports that over 2.8 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet at current food prices, with about 71.5% of the population in low‑income countries unable to afford such diets. These populations cluster heavily in the bottom end of the global income distribution, where food often takes up half or more of household spending. In that context, any fertilizer‑driven food price increase hits the poorest households disproportionately, because they spend such a large share of income on food and have almost no cushion.
The very poorest – those already near or below subsistence diets – are forced to reduce food quantity and quality when prices rise, which translates directly into more hunger and malnutrition, and in the very worst case scenarios, starvation.
All this to say a 200‑odd‑billion‑dollar fertilizer market, underpinned by a 23‑billion‑dollar sulfuric acid sector and cheap natural gas, quietly stabilises trillions of dollars of food‑system value and is a first‑order determinant of global inflation and of whether the 2‑plus billion people who already struggle to afford a healthy diet see their situation improve or deteriorate.”
In the long run, the economic shockwaves run upward from just five primary mineral inputs – hydrocarbons, sulfur, phosphate rock, nitrogen (via air and hydrogen) and potash – and the roughly 200–250 billion‑dollar fertilizer market they enable. Those inputs sit at the base of global yield levels, food prices and, by extension, headline inflation: squeeze them, and the effects propagate from fields to food indices to monetary policy. Before the Green Revolution and widespread synthetic fertilizer use, the world was not “fertilizer rich”; yields were tightly constrained by natural soil fertility, and hunger was far more widespread. Even today, potash appears on many critical‑mineral lists precisely because losing it would cripple the nutrient balance of major crops, and FAO country diagnostics repeatedly show that alleviating food poverty is, in practice, about alleviating “fertilizer poverty” – getting affordable N, P and K, plus sulfur, to worlds poorest farmers who currently use almost none. If there is a single, clearest “mineral imperative” in the world economy, it is this: secure flows of these basic, unfashionable minerals and molecules are a precondition for stable food systems, manageable inflation and any serious attempt to end global hunger.
Direct Hedge – Daily Fertilizer Market Update
Wednesday, 8 April 2026
Markets are sending mixed signals for urea, with values closing higher yesterday amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Overnight developments point to a potential two-week ceasefire, which is expected to reintroduce volatility into an already unstable market. Participants are reassessing risk as sentiment shifts between supply disruption and the possibility of normalization.
Latest derivative levels
International Markets
Arab Gulf Urea (fob) – latest index 800 (+52.5)
– Apr: $750 / $800 →
– May: $750 / $800 →
Egypt Urea (fob) – latest index 820 (+40)
– Apr: $820 / $850 ↑
– May: $780 / $830 ↓
Brazil
Urea Brazil (cfr) – latest index 765 (+35)
– Apr: $730 / $765 ↑
– May: $720 / $750 →
– June: $650 / $720 ↓
– July: $650 / $720 ↓
– Aug: $650 / $720 ↓
Ammonium Sulphate Brazil (cfr) – latest index 295 (unchanged)
– Apr: $280 / $300 →
– May: $280 / $300 →
– June: $270 / $290 →
MAP Brazil (cfr) – latest index 865 (+10)
– Apr: $870 / $900 →
– May: $850 / $900 →
US Markets (NOLA)
NOLA Urea (paper)
– Apr: 715 / 740 ↑
– May: 710 / 730 ↑
– June: 640 / 680 ↑
– July: 630 / 660 ↑
NOLA DAP (paper)
– Apr: 730 / 760 →
– May: 760 / 780 →
NOLA UAN (paper)
– Apr: 500 / 550 ↑
– May: 500 / 550 ↑
On April 8, 2026, the total warehouse of Chinese urea enterprises: inventory stood at 552,100 tons, an increase of 16,100 tons from the previous cycle, representing a month-over-month increase of 3.00%. During this cycle, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises stabilized and showed a slight increase, primarily due to the temporary decline in demand in certain peripheral regions, resulting in varying degrees of increases in enterprise inventory. The main production and distribution areas of urea plants generally have little or low inventory, with minimal fluctuations in inventory levels. The provinces with increased enterprise inventory include Gansu, Henan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. The provinces with decreased enterprise inventory include Anhui, Hainan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi.
The image contains a news snippet in Chinese regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Here is the translation:
## *Translation
Headline:
Iranian Foreign Minister says the Strait of Hormuz will be open for two weeks.
Body Text:
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, representing Iran's Supreme National Security Council, announced in the early hours of the 8th that safe navigation will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz for a period of two weeks.
### Key Details
*Source: Xinhua News Agency (新华社)
*Speaker: Abbas Araghchi (Iranian Foreign Minister)
*Subject: Temporary safe passage/opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
*Timeline:* Effective for a two-week window starting from the 8th.
China Morning Briefing 2026-4-8
❤Urea: Yesterday, the sales of major domestic urea producers in key regions were satisfactory. Industrial production demand continued to drive the release of purchase orders. Despite this, companies still expect their inventories to decrease. Coupled with a slight reduction in daily production, the domestic urea market may continue its current trend, with prices remaining strong in the short term.
❤Synthetic ammonia: The synthetic ammonia market in major production regions was generally stable yesterday, with some minor adjustments. Certain ammonia plants undergoing maintenance have resumed operations, and there were restrictions on exports during the holiday period. Additionally, after prices rose high, downstream purchases have become cautious. Pay close attention to the bidding situation for new orders. There is an expectation of a decline in regional new orders, which may have a ripple effect on surrounding sentiments.
❤Ammonium sulfate: The market for ammonium sulfate saw a rebound in prices yesterday. Favorable market conditions continue to prevail, with bidding activity primarily driven by price increases. Purchasing sentiment remains cautious and cautious. Given stable demand, it is expected that the market for ammonium sulfate will continue to show a strong trend in the short term.
❤ Ammonium chloride: The main market for ammonium chloride in China remained stable yesterday. The production of compound fertilizers slightly decreased, and there was a decline in the enthusiasm for purchasing ammonium chloride. The primary demand is for essential needs. The soda ash and caustic soda enterprises fulfilled earlier contracts and maintained prices under pressure without any inventory constraints. Some facilities underwent maintenance in the middle of the month, which is expected to reduce supply. The price is expected to remain stable at a high level.
❤Melamine: The domestic melamine market yesterday was characterized by high volatility, with most enterprises maintaining stable pricing. In the short term, enterprises are likely to continue offering strong pricing due to support from pending orders. However, it cannot be ruled out that individual high-priced enterprises may face pressure from sales and implement preferential policies.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic phosphate fertilizer market has shown a slight upward trend. Some varieties of spot supplies are somewhat tight, and traders’ quotes vary. Most transactions are based on discussions with downstream factories. Imported 62% white potassium is typically priced between 3150 to 3500 yuan/ton. The domestic potassium sulfate market remains stable, with manufacturers facing significant pressure on production costs.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: The domestic market for monoammonium phosphate saw a steady increase over the past day. In Hubei, the 55% powder was priced at 4,100-4,150 yuan/ton, with small-scale transactions reported. The raw material sulfur continues to rise at a high level, resulting in a significant increase in costs. Some factories and traders are reluctant to sell, leading to a relatively tight supply market. The prices are expected to remain high for the short term, and there is still sentiment for further price increases in the market.
The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to show strong performance yesterday. The price of raw material sulfur continued to rise, putting additional pressure on costs. Companies primarily focused on shipping remaining orders. In some regions, due to tight supply of available stock, the price trend remained strong. However, downstream industries continued to maintain their essential purchasing pace. In the short term, the market will maintain a strong trend.
❤Compound fertilizers: The domestic market for compound fertilizers performed relatively strongly yesterday. Prices in some major production regions continued to rise, driven by increases in raw material costs. The pressure on compound fertilizer manufacturers to maintain prices increased. While enterprises continued to push up prices, midstream and downstream buyers were cautious about taking on high-priced orders. New contracts were also cautiously negotiated. It is expected that compound fertilizers will continue to operate at a high and stable level in the short term.
All Ammonia-Urea units are down Iran due to situation
Morning. Thin activity on Int’l paper to start the week as participants await further developments after IPL tender announcement and continued conflict in M.East. FH April Nola urea traded up to $725, while May Nola paper changed hands at $705. DAP Nola also moved higher with loaded phys barge trading $750 and May paper up to $780.
AG
Apr $745//$790
May $745//$800
Cfr Brazil
Apr $750//$790
May $715//$757
Jun $675//$730
Egypt
Apr $820//$890
Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $715. FH April traded $715, $718, $725
Paper:
Apr $690//$710
May $700//$710 – traded $700, $705
Jun $635//$665
Sep traded $585
UAN Nola
Apr $500//$530
May $500//$535
DAP Nola
Phys: Loaded traded $750. Prompt $730
Paper:
Apr $700//$750
May $780//$790 – traded $770, $780
June $700//$775
TSP phys: Apr traded $665
MAP Brazil
Apr $890//$945
LONDON (ICIS)–In Egypt, MOPCO sold 10,000 tonnes of granular urea on 6 April at $842/tonne FOB for April loading.
–We have no confirmation on production after drone and missile attacks to AG plants.
As of 5 April, damage assessment at the GPIC Bahrain facility, which has annual an production capacity of 670,000 tonnes of granular urea and 475,000 tonnes of ammonia, was still ongoing.
Iran also targeted Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Industrial City early on 7 April, with air defenses intercepting seven ballistic missiles and debris falling near energy facilities. Damage assessments are ongoing, said the Saudi defense ministry. There is no official statement.
[Urea] On April 7, the daily production of the urea industry was 219,200 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous working day (April 3); compared to the same period last year, it increased by 29,600 tons. The current operating rate is 93.09%, an increase of 8.81% from 84.28% last year.
Direct Hedge – Atualização Diária do Mercado de Fertilizantes
Terça-feira, 7 de abril de 2026
Os mercados ganharam força adicional, com os valores no Norte da África subindo, após a Mopco vender 10.000t a US$842 FOB, acima dos US$830 do final da semana passada. Os riscos geopolíticos aumentaram após ataques no Irã interromperem unidades de produção de amônia/ureia, apertando ainda mais a oferta global. Os valores em Nola subiram, com abril físico negociando até US$720/st, refletindo a força contínua no mercado dos EUA.
Derivativos/Papel
Mercados Internacionais
Ureia Golfo Árabe (FOB) – último índice 800 (+52,5)
– Abr: US$750 / US$800 ↑
– Mai: US$750 / US$800 ↑
Ureia Egito (FOB) – último índice 820 (+40)
– Abr: US$790 / US$850 ↑
– Mai: US$780 / US$850 ↑
Brasil
Ureia Brasil (CFR) – último índice 765 (+35)
– Abr: US$730 / US$780 ↑
– Mai: US$730 / US$780 ↑
– Jun: US$650 / US$740 ↑
– Jul: US$650 / US$740 ↑
– Ago: US$650 / US$740 →
Sulfato de Amônio Brasil (CFR) – último índice 295 (inalterado)
– Abr: US$280 / US$300 ↑
– Mai: US$280 / US$300 ↑
MAP Brasil (CFR) – último índice 865 (+10)
– Abr: US$870 / US$900 →
– Mai: US$850 / US$900 ↑
Mercados EUA (NOLA)
Ureia NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 715 / 735 ↑
– Mai: 700 / 720 ↑
– Jun: 640 / 660 ↑
DAP NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 730 / 760 ↑
– Mai: 760 / 780 ↑
UAN NOLA (papel)
– Abr: 490 / 520 ↑
– Mai: 490 / 520 ↑
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